NBA Finals 2011: Dirk Gets His Ring, and We Need a New Name for the King

LeBron James (or a lack thereof) may be the story that has everyone salivating, but I refuse to believe discussing the Mavericks first is burying the lead.  They won the championship, and to the victor go the spoils, a.k.a. the first portion of my column.

What we saw all postseason from the Mavs was incredible team play: fluid ball movement, perfect defensive rotations, and endless depth, so many ways to score and win games.  Dirk Nowitzki was the focal point, but his willingness to trust his teammates—combined with his offensive arsenal—made the Maverick attack doubly potent.  It also wore out the Miami Heat, whose legs failed them in Game Six.  There was simply too much pressure on the great three players of the Heat to beat the very good nine players of the Mavericks.

I can’t help loving this championship as if I were a Dallas fan.  So many characters on this team have waited and waited and waited for their chance to get a ring, and now they have it.

The Mavericks have been at least a 50-win team for the past eleven straight seasons, yet never felt like a serious threat to win a title because we all believed they were nothing more than a regular season force that would fold come playoff time.  All the labels we applied over the years—Nowitzki was too soft, Jason Kidd was too old, Mark Cuban was too loud, Jason Terry wasn’t a good enough second scorer, Shawn Marion was over the hill, Peja Stojakovic missed his chance years ago—came to be NBA gospel, and the absolute truth was that this team would never have what it takes to claim the ultimate prize.  Consider all those labels, all those notions, and all that doubt cleansed by the power of this championship.

Nowitzki now takes his seat at the head table of all-time greats; I can’t say where exactly, but he’s at the table.  Averaging 28 points and 8 rebounds a game this postseason, Dirk carried his team past the trendy upset pick Trailblazers, the two-time defending champion Lakers, the young gun Thunder, and the superstar-laden Heat.  (Side note, I picked Dallas to lose all four of those series, so clearly I know what I’m talking about.)

Spreading the Love, Jason Kidd finally got his ring at age 38, and Shawn Marion can call himself a champion after coming close a number of times with both the Suns and Mavericks.  Rick Carlisle proved himself as one hell of a coach after he gameplanned circles around his counterparts in Nate McMillan, Phil Jackson, Scotty Brooks, and Erik Spoelstra.

The most refreshing thing about this Mavericks group is that they defined the word “team” at every crucial moment.  They made numerous double-digit, fourth quarter comebacks throughout these playoffs by trusting each other, remaining patient in the face of immense pressure, and believing that over the course of 48 minutes, their plan would work.  I haven’t seen a team before with this level of chemistry, trust, and genuine love for one another.  Team trumped talent in these finals, and that is extremely reassuring considering the talk of superstar trios dominating the NBA landscape.

And now, due perhaps to our own perverse love for seeing Goliath fall, I turn my attention to what many of you may be most interested in, the Miami Heat.  From this embarrassing beginning to a classless end in which Dwyane Wade and LeBron James mocked Nowitzki’s sickness, the Heat made it virtually impossible to fully appreciate their immense talent.  Even though I have never personally liked James, I wanted to watch this team play well.  I wanted to see what having two of the best three players in the world could be, and yet this team never fully meshed offensively.

By defeating the Celtics and Bulls in tough, gritty, clutch fashion I truly believed that James had turned the corner from great regular season player to postseason maestro.  Boy was I wrong.  LeBron’s passivity, in the last three games of this series especially, was astonishing, vividly reminiscent of last season’s playoffs when he mentally checked out against the Boston Celtics.  In this series James literally never looked at the rim in the fourth quarter, always passing the ball off as if he was playing hot potato.  His issues were so clearly mental that you wonder if a visit with Dr. Phil is in order.

After averaging 27 points per contest this season, James became a shell of himself, scoring just 15 points per game over the final three games of this series.  And really, his play was even worse than those stats indicate.  You could see the fear on James’ face.  Not only did he not relish his championship moment, he couldn’t run from it fast enough.  I can’t explain it, I’m disappointed by it, and though I’m not in the James fan club, I feel cheated by his absolutely abysmal effort and performance on the game’s biggest stage.

The oft-criticized third wheel of the Heat, Chris Bosh scored 18.5 points and grabbed 7.3 rebounds per game in the Finals; James averaged 17.8 and 7.2.  Also, LeBron rarely got to the foul line (20 attempts in the whole series) and he made just 12 of those shots (60%).

With Bosh doing what he was supposed to and a brilliant Dwyane Wade; who averaged 26.5 points, 7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists over the six games; the blame clearly and irrefutably must fall on James’ shoulders.  In a series of tight games, his lack of aggression and production was the difference between a title and second place.

Of course we would miss the lessons the Mavericks just taught us if we forever wrote off LeBron as not clutch, not a closer, and lacking a killer instinct.  Winning takes time, team building is a process, and we shouldn’t paint the Heat as missing championship ingredients just because they got outplayed in this series.  LeBron still has a long career ahead of him to write his legacy, but losing in his first two finals appearances, the second of which he was favored in, doesn’t exactly conjure images of Jordan, Magic, Bird, or Kobe.

Though much of it was self-imposed, over the past year the Heat went through perhaps the most media scrutiny and fan hatred of any team in American sports history.  That animosity will fade with time, and James, Wade, and Bosh will grow more comfortable as a trio.  Additionally, the Heat will have at least a little more cap space this offseason to improve their team.  It looks bleak right now within the shadow of a disconcerting collapse, but looking at the big picture, James is 26, Bosh 27, and Wade 29, and they fell just short of a title in their first campaign together.

But for now, the Mavs are the only ones who merit the title of King, and the Heat face a long offseason of second guessing, self doubt, and what-ifs.  Playoff failure often makes teams stronger in the long run, but you have to wonder how much more of it James can personally take.

--from @AdamHocking

(images from flickr.com)

Lessons Learned from the NBA Playoffs

The Mavericks and Heat haven’t even finished their semi-epic battle for the NBA championship yet, and already this NBA postseason has taught us all we need to know about succeeding in the playoffs and the state of the league in general. 

Lesson 1: There Are No Great Teams

The reason I call this Mavs-Heat series semi-epic is because, while it is very competitive, neither team is playing great basketball.  Miami often looks atrocious in their half-court offense; Dallas consistently plays lackluster for three quarters, then puts together 8-12 good minutes to finish the game.  Miami is very good defensively, and you would think that having three All-Stars would ensure offensive success, but they’ve consistently lacked fluidity and efficiency on that end of the floor.  Building the entire Dallas offensive gameplan around one player, Dirk Nowitzki must either score when he gets single coverage or pass to a solid but unspectacular supporting cast if he’s double-teamed.

The fact that Miami won each series on their way to the Finals in five games is deceiving.  If Boston’s Rajon Rondo didn’t dislocate his elbow in the Second Round, that series easily could have gone to seven games.  Or worse, the Heat may never have advanced.  Even so, Miami played down-to-the-wire games against Philadelphia in the First Round, Boston in the Second, and Chicago in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Every game against Boston and Chicago came down to the 4th quarter, and the Heat simply survived the playoff grind better than their opponents.

Similarly, the Mavericks had a tough first round series against Portland and then cleanly swept the Lakers, though they had to make major comebacks in two of the games to win.  Against their Western Conference Final foes, the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Mavs’ largest margin of victory was 9 points, and Dallas won the final three games of that series by 6, 7, and 5 points, respectively, including an overtime contest.

Thus far in the NBA Finals, the Heat have scored 356 points, the Mavs 351.

Lesson 2: Defense Almost Wins Championships

The remaining Finals games notwithstanding, Miami has clearly been the best defensive team in these playoffs.  Still, the Heat’s strategy of getting a lead through three quarters, then holding the ball and relying on their defense to finish games has been a problem.  The Mavericks have twice erased double digit 4th quarter deficits specifically due to the Heat stagnating offensively when they have a late lead.  They stop attacking, they run the shot clock down, and to top it off, take poor shots.  Defense alone cannot completely close a game or a series.

Lesson 3: We Need Not Fear Domination of Super Teams

The Miami Heat seem to be the model for what many franchises want to do moving forward: compile three stars and a bunch of role players to make a run at the Larry O’Brien Trophy.  The Knicks hope to land Chris Paul or Dwight Howard to pair with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire; the Lakers would love to form a Howard/Kobe Bryant/Pau Gasol super-trio.  But as we’ve seen all season, the Heat are good but not dominant.  Specifically, putting three stars on one team is so costly that it won’t allow for a deep bench or great supporting cast.  The Heat have no choice but to play sub-par players like Mike Miller, Joel Anthony, Mike Bibby, and Juwan Howard for significant stretches.

In terms of star power and star talent, the Heat easily trump the Mavs—three stars (Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh) to one (Dirk Nowitzki).  But by committing enormous money to just one player, Nowitzki, the Mavericks can put together a versatile roster that runs much deeper than the Heat’s.  Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler, JJ Barea, and Jason Kidd would probably all be the 4th-best player on the Heat, though none are better than any of the Heat’s big three.

Conclusions

The era of the great team may not be over in the NBA, but the super team strategy certainly has its flaws.  The playoffs have proven to us that defense is the single most important ingredient to postseason success; witness the Bulls making a long playoff run despite having virtually no offense and the Lakers getting annihilated because of their complete lack of defensive effort.  The Grizzlies also ran through the Spurs and nearly beat the Thunder on the strength of wing defenders like Tony Allen and Shane Battier and the rough and tumble inside play of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.  Yet the reason the Heat and the Mavericks have made it to this point is because they combine very good defense with an ability to create shots and go on hot shooting stretches.

Going forward, the NBA seems to have two tracks to success, and the Finals participants represent each of those paths.  There’s the Heat super squad and the endlessly deep Mavs, and judging by the air-tight margins in these games, both are championship-caliber formulas.

--from @AdamHocking

NBA Finals 2011: Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks

As a sports fan and a lover of the NBA, let me first say, hell yes!  What a great matchup.  Sure the Lakers and Heat might have moved the meter more, but let’s face it, the storylines wouldn’t have been as good.  The debate between Kobe Bryant and LeBron James as best player in the game is over; Bryant is past his prime.  On top of that, the Lakers are secure in their championship legacy and have absolutely nothing to prove.

By contrast, there are perhaps no two stars in the league more in need of a ring, not for their legacies, but for the public perception of their legacies, than James and Dirk Nowitzki.  Whether or not Nowitzki wins a championship shouldn’t diminish his greatness as an unstoppable offensive force, and talk of James’ legacy at the age of 26 is a bit premature.  Still, this may well be Dirk’s last shot at a championship, and LeBron has already been in the league eight years.  Titles don’t grow on trees; you better get them when you can.

When predicting the Finals I’d like to keep it simple, but this series is anything but.

Sure, the Heat have three of the four best players in the series, but the Mavericks have perhaps the best player in the world right now in Nowitzki.  You could argue simply to double-team Dirk, but that is probably the worst strategy one could devise.  The 7’ Nowitzki can see over his defenders, is a very good passer, and the best group of three point shooters in the league surround him.  Jason Terry is hitting 46% of his three point shots in these playoffs, Jason Kidd 36%, and Peja Stojakovic 40%.  Then if you don’t double Nowitzki, it’s an automatic two points because no person on earth can guard him or his fadeaway, a fadeaway so sweet it could shut Charles Barkley up.

At the same time, the Heat are probably the best equipped team in the league to defend the Mavericks on the three point line.  James’ versatility on defense and Wade’s speed and strength as a defender form a combination reminiscent of what Phil Jackson used to call his “pit bull” defense—when he would unleash Scottie Pippen and Michael Jordan and create havoc for opposing shooters.  The Heat will likely deny Nowitzki the ball as much as possible, because when he has it, he either gets a good shot for his self or a teammate.  The return of Udonis Haslem will help in checking Dirk; Haslem is strong and pretty athletic but still gives up four inches to the sweet-shooting German.

When the Heat have the ball the Mavericks face many difficulties as well.  Jason Kidd won’t be able to stay with Dwyane Wade, so DeShawn Stevenson may draw that assignment.  However Stevenson offers nothing on offense, so Kidd and Terry may well have to exhaust themselves guarding Wade.  That means Wade will be in the paint early and often, where he thrives, and if he and James get going, it will be tough to stop.  The Heat are best when LeBron is distributing, rebounding, defending, and scoring when he needs to while Wade simply attacks the basket and looks to play the Kobe role: straight scorer.

Chris Bosh also has an enormous role to play.  The Mavs could put Tyson Chandler on him, but then only Nowitzki is left to defend the rim.  That’s bad on two fronts: first, that Nowitzki really can’t protect the rim, and second, he will get into foul trouble if he tries.  So I imagine Dirk will check Bosh, and Bosh has a definite quickness advantage there.

Both teams are on a mission at this point, and both teams are playing their best ball of the season.  The Heat have been hated all year, the Mavs doubted every step of the way.  Everyone loves a winner, and a championship gives both teams the chance to forever shake the various labels that have dogged them.

What we’ve seen in these playoffs is that all the teams are very evenly matched, and most games will come down to who executes in the last four minutes.  The Mavs are the deeper squad and have more overall threats, but I’m more frightened of James and Wade to finish a game.  My guess is that, much like in the Bulls series when he covered Derrick Rose to closeout games, LeBron will cover Dirk at the end.  They won’t double him, and eventually Nowitzki will miss some shots.  He’s made incredible shots all postseason, but his degree of difficulty has been enormous.  Meanwhile the Heat have two guys that can get to the hoop and get high percentage shots and free throws whenever they choose.

LeBron’s defensive versatility was the reason Miami beat Chicago, and his offensive versatility, combined with Wade’s matchup advantage, is the reason they’ll win this series.  It will be enthralling to watch.  We’ve got four All-Stars and three of the NBA’s top-7 players in this series.  We’ve got a team in the Mavericks that have played some of the best offensive ball I’ve seen in recent years going up against the clamp-down, defensive Heat.

Ultimately though, one team has LeBron, and the other doesn’t.  I guess it is simple after all.

Prediction: Heat in 7

--from Adam