Quick and Dirty NBA First Round Predictions

I'm in a time crunch folks, I'm going to get my marriage license this morning, but that doesn't mean I've forgotten the most important thing, the NBA Playoffs:

(1) Chicago Bulls V. (8) Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are athletic and deep, but they just don't have enough offensive punch to last in this series.  They'll compete and these games will be basketball played the right way: team defense, sharing the ball, good effort.  The Bulls just play that style better.  Chicago in 5.

(2) Miami Heat V. (7) New York Knicks

This should be a lot of fun.  Talent all over the court.  Carmelo Anthony has been arguably the best player in the league over the second half of the season, and Tyson Chandler should really dominate the boards and challenge Lebron and DWade at the hoop.  Still, There's nobody that impacts the game as profoundly as James, and I think he's on a mission this year.  Heat in 6.

(3) Indiana Pacers V. (6) Orlando Magic

It's simple, there's just no way Orlando does anything without Dwight Howard.  Indiana gets a free pass into the second round.  Pacers in 4.

(4) Boston Celtics V. (5) Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks did it again! Piled up wins in the regular season only to be bounced by a poised, smarter team in the postseason.  The Celtics defense has been stifling since the all star break and the emergence of Avery Bradley has made a big impact.  Celtics in 6.

(1) San Antonio Spurs V. (8) Utah Jazz

Things didn't turn out well for the Spurs last year when they achieved the top seed, but I don't see that happening again.  With Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson the Jazz have the size to bother the Spurs, and should steal a game or two at home, but they won't win the series.  Spurs in 5. 

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder V. (7) Dallas Mavericks

The Thunder are no longer an inexperienced playoff team, and I think Dallas is on its last legs for this year.  The Thunder will run them out of the gym and the series early.  Thunder in 5.

(3) LA Lakers V. (6) Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are the type of team that could bother LA.  Their young, deep, and athletic, but they don't have a go to scorer which matters in the playoffs, and they will struggle in the more half-court style of the postseason.  Denver also has no match for Bynum and Gasol, but who does?  Kobe is rested and the Lakers finally have speed at point guard to counteract the likes of Ty Lawson.  It will be a struggle but the Lakers win.  Lakers in 6.  

(4) Memphis Grizzlies V. (5) LA Clippers

This is the best series of the first round maybe along with the Heat-Knicks.  The Grizzlies are really tough inside with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, but the Clips counter with Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin.  Rudy Gay has no match on the Clippers, but Chris Paul is the best player in the series.  Then there are countless good role players on both sides: Nick Young, Caron Butler, Mo Williams and Randy Foye for LA.  OJ Mayo, Mike Conley, Tony Allen, and Marreese Speights for the Grizzlies.  I Might be nuts here but I think Super-Stars are the difference in the playoffs, so I'll take Chris Paul to find a way.  Clippers in 6. 

Catch and Shoot: Deron Williams and Carmelo Anthony

Looking at the Deron Williams trade to New Jersey

Nets Perspective: The Nets traded point guard Devin Harris and this year’s third overall pick, Derrick Favors, to acquire Williams.  New Jersey made the deal to land a superstar and shed some salary, perhaps to add another star down the road.  They found their superstar in the 26-year-old Williams, a great player for at least the next 5-7 years.  Harris is a near All Star-level player, and Favors could develop into a very good player down the road.  If you compare what the Knicks gave up for Carmelo Anthony and what the Nets gave up for Williams, it’s not even close.  The Nets paid a very high price to get their man, but prevailing NBA logic says that if you can deal for a sure-fire star, you pull the trigger, made easier in this case as Harris has probably plateaued in his development and Favors is a “what if” player.  There’s no way of knowing if Favors will hit his ceiling, so dealing these two for a sure thing was a good move.

Jazz Perspective: In trading a superstar, you never get back equal value.  Shaquille O'Neal was traded for Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, and Caron Butler.  Anthony was dealt for Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, Tim Mosgov, and a pick.  So you may ask, “Why trade him at all?”  Williams was unhappy in Utah and would have left when he hit the free agent market in two years.  From that point of view, it makes sense to deal him.  If you’re going to lose a star, you may as well get something in return.  The Cavaliers and Raptors got nothing but a few picks for LeBron James and Chris Bosh, and they are now probably the two worst teams in the league.  In Harris, the Jazz get a relatively young guard who can score and facilitate.  Favors joins a talented Utah front court that already boasts Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson.  The Jazz may even be able to stay in the playoff race this year, but certainly they will not be a championship contender.  The only way this move really pays of for Utah is if Favors becomes a star, but we just have to wait and see on that.  The Jazz are starting fresh with the resignation of Jerry Sloan and the exodus of Williams, yet they start fresh with some nice building blocks.  As a Jazz fan, you can’t ask for much more, and it could have been much worse.

Carmelo Anthony Bolts for the Big Apple

Knicks Perspective: Some argue that the Knicks gave up too much to acquire Anthony.  I think in keeping Landry Fields and acquiring Corey Brewer as part of the trade, those concerns are invalid.  Brewer replaces Chandler well, Anthony is a huge upgrade over Gallinari, and Chanucey Billups is just as productive as Felton.  In essence, Anthony was the best player that moved in this trade by far, and the Knicks got him, so it’s a win on their end.   Pairing Anthony with Amare Stoudemire gives the Knicks two of best 20 players in the game today, and both are young—Stoudemire is 28, Anthony 26—with futures ahead of them.  Stoudemire is third in the league in scoring while Anthony ranks fifth.  The Knicks now have as good a duo as any team in the league and may even go out and acquire another big piece down the road.

In the NBA, a single player has a bigger impact than in almost any other team sport.  Only five guys are on the court at a time, so one guy can make a huge difference.  LeBron James' absence has meant a 50 win difference for the Cavaliers...in the wrong direction.  Felton, Chandler, and Gallinari were playing well, but their numbers were inflated in Mike D’antoni’s run-'n'-gun system.  None of those players has superstar-level talent.  Role players can always be replaced; superstars are rare. 

Some would agree with my argument but say, “The Knicks could have just waited for the off-season and signed Carmelo without giving up a thing.”  That’s flawed thinking because with a looming lockout, Anthony likely would have signed a $65 million extension with the Nuggets rather than risk getting far less money under the new collective bargaining agreement.   If there’s a lockout and Anthony hadn’t signed with Denver, he would have been without any contract.  With the lockout as a strong possibility as it is, he almost certainly would have taken the guaranteed money from the Nuggets.

Nuggets Perspective: "Well, crap," is what Nuggets fans are thinking.  It’s kind of like when someone you love is seriously ill, but you have months to prepare for the inevitable.  You know they’re going to leave you, but at least you have some time to get mentally prepared.  No Nugget fans were surprised by Anthony's departure, but it doesn’t mean they weren’t sad or disappointed.  The Knicks had most of the leverage in this deal because they knew Anthony didn’t want to go to the Nets.  They also knew the Nuggets desperately wanted to get something for Anthony.  So as the only true bidder in the Carmelo sweepstakes, they could lowball Denver.  The Nuggets get a solid point guard in  Felton, probably top-15 in the league.  Chandler is a talented and athletic young player, but he is a role player to be sure.  The biggest talent the Nuggets acquired was Gallinari, a 6’10” pure shooter and versatile offensive player.  There are concerns about his knees holding up, but the game is there.  They also acquired a project big man in Mozgov.  Again, in the NBA, three nice players do not equal one great one.  With five guys on the court, one of them has to be able to dominate and take over the game.  Denver didn’t get anybody in this trade that can do that.  What they did get is a nice foundation and some salary cap room.  If they can lure a true star to Denver to replace the one they just lost, or somehow find one in the draft, they will have some very nice players to surround him with.  JR Smith, Aaron Afflalo, Gallinari, Felton, Chandler, and Ty Lawson represent some very good young players who have a future with the team.

Which Player is the Bigger Piece: Anthony complements another superstar in Stoudemire, so acquiring him might seem like the bigger splash, but Williams is the better singular building block.   The NBA is a point guard-driven league, and Williams is as good any point man in the game.  When you get Williams, every player on your team immediately gets better because of his court vision and ability to set up other players with great looks.  Anthony improves your team because he is scoring machine, but he doesn’t impact his teammates in the same way Williams does.

Recap: The Nets and Knicks are the big winners because they got the stars.  The Jazz did as well as you can when you trade your franchise player.  The Nuggets did slightly worse, but were pretty much hamstrung because Anthony only wanted to go to the Knicks, so they had to settle for a moderate package.  Still, they got something, and that’s better than letting your star walk for free.

--from Adam

The Quiet Earth

Although it may seem as though LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh left the free agent landscape barren with nothing else worthy of discussion, we would be remiss if we did not mention some other teams that did well for themselves in the initial rush of free agent activity.

New York Knicks:  Many fans in the Big Apple may be buying excess rope and heading for the Chrysler Building now that LeBron has spurned them, but in all the Knicks are an improved team.  Amare Stoudemire is a guy that as the main star will average twenty-five points and ten boards a night.  They dealt David Lee, who became obsolete once Amare arrived, for Anthony Randolph, Kelina Azubuike, and Ronny Turiaf.  Randolph has elite talent and produced solidly last year.  He is an athletic big that will likely play multiple positions in New York.  Azubuike is a prototype sixth man and a perfect fit for Mike D’Antoni’s system.  He is athletic, can run, and shoots the three.  Turiaf has more energy than the dorky guy at a college party who isn’t adding any alcohol to his Red Bull.  He is a solid rebounder and defender.  In this trade the Knicks get three solid complementary players for the slightly overrated Lee.  They add these affordable pieces around Amare, and then wait for next year and hope to add free agents-to-be Tony Parker, Carmelo Anthony, or both. 

Chicago Bulls:  Adding Carlos Boozer was supposed to be the domino that led to either Wade or James joining the fold, but even so, the Bulls are in much better shape than they were last year.  Letting Kurt Hinrich go hurts in retrospect because the Bulls did not get two max contract players, but they will have cap space moving forward with a very nice roster already in place.  Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah, and Carlos Boozer form a very nice foundation that has the flexibility to accommodate changes.  Boozer is not a super star but he is a consistent scorer and rebounder that should work well with Rose, a talent not far removed from his previous running mate in Utah, Deron Williams. 

Memphis Grizzlies:  All indication were that Rudy Gay was on his way out of town, but Memphis retained him, and with that keeps together a young and improving core of Gay, OJ Mayo, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, and Zach Randolph. 

Boston Celtics:  Ray Allen and Paul Pierce come back, as does Doc Rivers.  This team will be healthy heading into next year, but their championship window is closing, if not already closed. 

Miami may have the league’ attention, and rightly so, but these other teams did very well for themselves, and should be proud of their offseasons.


--from Adam