Eric Asks, Adam Answers

I was itching for the perverse, expansive and deep dark thoughts that emanate from the mind of Eric LeJeune, and I got it.  Here are the questions that are burning Eric's loins, and my corresponding answers.

1. Who wins the AFC West?

Really this is such a tough one.  If Peyton Manning is his old self, they are at least even favorites to win the division.    Still, whose to say that Phillip Rivers isn't the best passer in the division even if Manning is healthy.  I'll rule out the Raiders and save us all the time of an explanation.  They're the Raiders for God's sake.  In the end I'll take the Chiefs.  Matt Cassel doesn't make my heart skip a beat, but he's solid, and the cast around him is hands down the most talented roster in the division.  Dexter Mccluster, Dwayne Bowe, Tony Moeaki, Jonathan Baldwin, Jamal Charles, and Peyton Hillis is a skill group that can rival any in the league.  The Chiefs also probably have the most defensive talent in the division with newly acquired Dontari Poe joing stars Tamba Hali (pass rusher) Derrick Johnson (middle linebacker) Brandon Flowers (cornerback) and Eric Berry (safety).  The defense legitimately has four pro bowl level players, and if Poe can live up to his monstrous potential that number will soon be five.  I think KC's roster is so far superior to any other team in the West, that Cassel's mediocrity can be overcome.

2. What is the Saints' season going to be like?

Probably a lot like the off-season. Which is to say, I have no idea.  Sean Payton is gone for the year, GM Mickey Loomis is gone for half the year, Drew Brees is mad about his contract, defensive leader Jonathan Vilma is gone for the season.  Robert Meachem also left via free agency as did all-pro Carl Nicks.  I think the Saints have enough offense and enough leadership with Brees to still win a handful of games, but I don't expect them to compete for a championship like last year.  I would think with the Panthers, Bucs, and Falcons either improving or already a tough out, the Saints would be lucky to win the division.  

3. Which team flying under the radar is going to surprise some people this year?

I have to pick between Washington, Carolina, and Tampa Bay because they all intrigue me.  I'll go with Tampa.  I think they have a really good offensive line with the addition of Carl Nicks.  LeGarrette Blount is a good but not great running back that can carry the load.  Vincent Jackson gives them a legitimate number 1 receiver to complement the promising Mike Williams and the pro bowl level tight end Kellen Winslow.  They also hit big time on their first three picks in the draft: Mark Barron will start immediately at safety, Doug Martin comes in to complement Blount at the easiest position to transition to (running back) and Lavonte David (OLB) continues to add to the young talent in the Bucs Front 7.  With the Saints down, the Falcons status quo, and the Panthers rising Tampa and Carolina could easily be battling for the division crown.

4. Who's going to underwhelm most?

Again it's a race: The Ravens, Jets, and Broncos.  I'll go Ravens because I think people still expect them to be a title contending team while a lot of people are unsure about Manning's health, and have lost faith in the Jets.  For the Ravens, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are just not elite players anymore.  Reed is too injury prone and Lewis has lost a lot of range.  They are still quality starters but they aren't the game changers they once were.  Haloti Ngata is a monster, and Terrell Suggs was the other stud in his prime on this defense, but he's now out with an achilles tear.  The offense has never been able to turn the corner.  Joe Flacco has Matt Ryan disease- we saw how good he could be in his first year and then he never got much better.  Anquan Boldin is quickly turning into Hines Ward (slow, tough, good blocker, but not a game breaker).  Torrey Smith is good at running a straight line, but he needs a lot more polish.  Stud guard Ben Grubbs also left via free agency.  I like the way the Bengals are stockpiling talent, I think the Steelers offense could be lethal, and the Browns at least have life with Trent Richardson coming in.  I could see Baltimore as a 8-9 win team when a lot of people probably still see them as 10-12 wins.

5. With two rings, where does Eli Manning rank among the league's top quarterbacks?

Eli was not a great player in his first Super Bowl run.  His regular season QB rating that year was a 73.9, or 16 points lower than Alex Smith's rating this year.  No doubt he turned it on in the playoffs, but four games does not an elite player make.  Timmy Smith ran for 204 yards for the Redskins in Super Bowl XXII but he's not up there on the Mount Rushmore of running backs.  The following year in the playoffs Eli was bounced by the Eagles in the divisional round of the playoffs posting a 40.7 rating with 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.  In 2009 the Giants didn't even make the playoffs though Eli's rating was very good at 93.1. Again no playoffs in 2010, and then the Giants narrowly got in this past year and just like 2007 happened to get hot.  The Giants have two prolific Super Bowl runs and three first game exits during Eli's reign, not elite in my opinion.  Here are the Quarterbacks I would want as of right now before Manning: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Matt Stafford.  I put Eli in the second group with Tony Romo, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Michael Vick.  

6. Can the 49ers win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith at quarterback?

Yes.  They won 13 games last year, then beat a team with a far superior quarterback in Drew Brees, and were two muffed fumbles away from playing and probably winning the Super Bowl.  Now Smith has another year in a good offensive system, a stable of running backs (Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs, Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James) and a ton of options at wide receiver (Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, Michael Crabtree, 1st round pick AJ Jenkins, and star right end Vernon Davis.  In addition everyone from the leagues best defense was resigned as were all the key components of the league's best special teams units.  With four explosive weapons added to the offense, a full off-season to integrate the system, and the confidence from last year's run Smith could certainly win this team a Super Bowl.

7. Who's your favorite player going today?  Ever?

Well, let's break this up a little bit.  Of course a 49er has to be my favorite current player- and that is a split decision between Patrick Willis and Vernon Davis, love em' both, can't choose.  My favorite non-Niner is without a doubt the people's champ Aaron Rodgers- cool, calm, has every tool in the kit, and dare I say handsome.  All time favorite is again a split.  In terms of 49ers it has to be a three way tie between Steve Young, Jerry Rice, and Bryant Young.  All were such professionals, such warriors, such masters of their craft, and none of them bitched off the field.  Outside the Niner organization my favorite players of all time are Deion Sanders, Barry Sanders, and Reggie White.  Deion was simply electric, Barry was a human video game, and Reggie made me fall in love with football when I saw him throwing Patriot lineman into Drew Bledsoe during the Packers 1996 Super Bowl.  Kevin Greene's insanity at outside linebacker also has a special place in my heart.  Apologies to Ronnie Lott and Joe Montana, I just wasn't old enough to appreciate your greatness.  

8. Who makes the bigger impact Year One, Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III?

hmm...I would Say RG3 because I think he has a better team around him, but I think Griffin has a tough road playing against the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys.  Luck will get 4 games against the Titans and Jaguars.  I also think Luck is so damn polished that he will find a way to be pretty good right away and not get his head knocked off.  Neither team is going to the playoffs, but I'll give the edge to Luck.  

9. Which team improved itself the most this off-season?

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and three draft picks that could make an immediate impact.  

 2. St. Louis Rams- long term this will be a much improved team, they turned the #2 overall pick this year into the 14th pick this year, two second rounders this year, and first rounders in the 2013 and 2014 drafts...not bad.  

10. How long will it be until the Browns can compete with their AFC North big brothers in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cincinnati?

If Brandon Weeden can be a good NFL player then they can compete not this year but next.  They have the running back, a solid offensive line, and some good players on defense.  They need talent on the perimeter offensively, and to continue to fill out the defense with talent.  In all likelihood this is at least two more years of good drafting and free agent signings before this team can compete for a playoff spot.  

Utterly premature but fun 2012-2013 NFL Power Rankings

1. San Francisco 49ers

The best defense in the NFL is back with some possible depth added in the draft, and a little health at the corner position bolstering that spot.  Aldon Smith should bloom into a superstar alongside Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis.  The real story is the offense, which added Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and high picks AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James to complement incumbent studs Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis.  If Alex Smith can build on his progress from last year, this is the team to beat.

2. Green Bay Packers

Adding the pass rusher Nick Perry and defensive tackle Jerel Worthy should add depth and explosiveness to the front 7 that so struggled last year.  If Perry can emerge as a consistent threat opposite Clay Matthews this defense could go from one of the worst in the league to at least middle of the pack.  Aaron Rodgers is the best player in football.


3.  Houston Texans

Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Ben Tate, and Owen Daniels represent one of the most talented groups of skill players in the league.  Yes the losses of tackle Eric Winston and pass rusher Mario Williams will hurt.  Williams however was aptly replaced by another pass rushing demon in Connor Barwin, and last year's rookie Brooks Reed can bring the heat as well.  Add in first round pick, DE Whitney Mercilus, the relentless JJ Watt, and the terrific Brian Cushing and the Texans still have arguably the best front 7 in football.  Jonathan Joseph also has completely turned around their secondary.


4. New England Patriots

First round picks Chandler Jones and Donta Hightower should really boost the Patriots depth and talent in the front 7.  New England continued to add to the defense all draft long after adding Brandon Lloyd to be the perimeter threat that compliments Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Wes Welker.  If Lloyd can play at a near pro bowl level the offense should be historically good, and I expect the defense to be significantly better.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

The drafting of David DeCastro (especially) and Mike Adams completely revamp what was a big weakness into a potential strength.  I believe DeCastro will be a good starter right away in the league, and Adams has the size to play right tackle immediately without getting pushed around.  Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emanuelle Sanders and Heath Miller provide as good a set of targets as Ben Roethlisberger could ask for.  Rashard Mendenhall may not be back to begin the season, but they should survive without him and maybe he returns mid-season for a boost.  The defense is undeniably old, but still has great players, and youngsters Cameron Heyward, Lawrence Timmons, Lamar Woodley, and Ziggy Hood provide a solid foundation of youth.

6. Detroit Lions

Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson alone are enough to put this team in the top ten.  Add in star tight end Brandon Pettigrew, explosive Jhavid Best, and the return of last year's second round bruising running back Mikel LeShoure and this offense should be ready to explode.  Detroit also added impressive and polished tackle Riley Reiff in the first round, who as most Iowa lineman should be ready to play from day one.  In the second round receiver Ryan Broyles is a nice slot complement to Megatron.  He's quick, smart and productive.  after the first two rounds the Lions went exclusively defense which was smart.  If they can find one starter and another solid contributor out of those picks the defense should be improved.

7. Philadelphia Eagles

Mike Vick staying healthy is obviously the huge asterisk with this ranking.  Talent is all over this offense with LeSean McCoy turning into a star, DeSean Jackson having unparalleled explosiveness, and Jeremy Maclin blossoming into a star.  Demetrius Bell will be adequate at left tackle but losing Jason Peters really hurts.  Most of all, Philly filled the atrocious middle of their defense with solid signee Demeco Ryan, draftee Fletcher Cox (1st round) and second round linebacker Mychal Kendricks.  With Trent Cole and Jason Babin rushing the passer, and talent in the secondary, the Eagles could be a dominant defense if the new pieces fit.

8. Chicago Bears

The Bears were an excellent team until Matt Forte and Jay Cutler went down with injuries.  With those two back in the fold and finally a premier receiver in Brandon Marshall the Bear's offense could really turn into a threat.  Rookie Shea McClellin should add pas rush, and if Alshon Jeffrey can live up to his potential he was a steal in the second round.

9.  Cincinatti Bengals

With Leon Hall coming back from injury, and being joined by the 17th overall pick Dre Kirkpatrick the secondary should be much improved from last year.  Cincy also got plug and play guard Kevin Zeitler who should help solidify the line for young Andy Dalton.  DT Devon Still should join a talented defensive line rotation, and Mohamed Sanu had a 1-2 round grade from a lot of scouts.  AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, and Sanu make up a promising young trio for Dalton.  I think the Ravens are aging, and take a step back with the achilles injury to Terrell Suggs and the Bengals slide in.

10. Dallas Cowboys

They fool me every year, but I think this team has the talent to win 10-11 games.  Romo is a very good quarterback.  Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten are star caliber targets in the passing game.  DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones are a nice running back duo.  The offensive line is in better shape with the emergence of Tyron Smith at tackle last year.  Morris Claiborne was a huge pickup for Dallas, they now have a legitimate cover corner who will surely have his ups and downs in his rookie season but should also develop into a star.  With Claiborne solidifying the secondary, and the front 7 still boasting Jay Ratliff and Demarcus Ware, the Boys could field a better defense than most people think.



11. Kansas City Chiefs

Jamal Charles, Eric Berry, and Tony Moeaki all missed the entire season last year, and will all be back this year.  Those are three star level players coming back into the fold.  Matt Cassel is not a great player, but handing of to Charles and Peyton Hillis while throwing to Dwayne Bowe, Moeaki, and last year's first rounder Jonathan Baldwin should make him look more than competent.  The signing of all-pro right tackle Eric Winston is another huge move.  Defensively Tamba Hali, Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry are pro-bowl caliber and if Dontari Poe pans out this defense could be special.


12. San Diego Chargers

The loss of Vincent Jackson undoubtedly hurts, but Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates are still in the fold, and Phillip Rivers should bounce back to have his usual terrific season.  Ryan Matthews is turning into a stud back as well.  The defense will be helped tremendously by top pick Melvin Ingram who was drafted way too low.  They then snatched Kendell Reyes, a defensive tackle a lot of people had in the top 25 picks, but he slid to the second round.

13. New York Giants

You might think I'm being unfair simply because I hate the freaking Giants, but in all honesty I think they are due for a slide.  They scraped to 9-7 last year and then got hot but this team has holes.  Their linebacking group is unathletic and their secondary doesn't scare anyone.  Jason Pierre-Paul is a superstar, and Eli Manning is one dangerous man.  Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are dynamic at receiver and Ahmad Bradshaw should do well splitting carries with talented rookie David Wilson.  Still, lots of holes on this team and I won't be surprised if they miss the playoffs.

14. New Orleans Saints

I know they have talent all over the offense but they lost all pro guard Carl Nicks and quality receiver Robert Meachem, not to mention Jonathan Vilma for the year.  And oh yeah Sean Payton is suspended for the year as well.  Too much turmoil and turnover for this team to be a title contender again.



15. Baltimore Ravens

This seems like a drastic fall, but I think every year a team finally reaches the point where it gets too old.  I could be way off, but Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are both on their last legs, and Terrell Suggs won't even play this year.  The secondary is still a little green at corner as well.  The offense has never been inspiring and Ray Rice is now holding out.  Anquan Boldin is also really slowing down.  This is a team in transition and Joe Flacco is not good enough to put this team on his back.


16. Atlanta Falcons

I just don't believe in the Atlanta defense.  I also think that Michael Turner is due to slow down, and the offensive line can be shaky at times.  Matt Ryan has plateaued, though Julio Jones and Roddy White make this team dangerous.

17. Denver Broncos

I just don't know what Peyton Manning will be, but even if he's back to his old tricks he doesn't have many weapons on this offense, and the defense struggled through many games last year.  The Broncos failed to give Manning to much help in this year's draft.

18. Carolina Panthers

If Cam Newton can take another step in his progression he can be one of the very best players in the league and win games by himself.  Steve Smith showed he still has a lot of prime left, and the duo of Jon Stewart and Deangelo Williams is still very good in the backfield.  The defense was the issue last year, but the return of star linebacker Jon Beason who will be flanked by 9th overall pick Luke Kuechly should improve this defense dramatically.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Josh Freeman was a rising super-star two years ago, and had an off year last season like the whole Bucs team.  Enter pro-bowl level wide receiver Vincent Jackson, and all-pro guard Carl Nicks and Freeman will have plenty of help to get back to his previous level of play.  Rookie running back Doug Martin should provide a strong 1-2 punch with LeGarette Blount in the backfield.  This offense really has some talent now and could take off.  Defensively this team just needs to grow- Gerald McCoy, Adrian Clayborn, Brian Price, and Da'Quan Bowers are all 2nd and 3rd year players with talent that has the potential to blossom into a strong unit.  Safety first round pick Mark Barron is regarded as an immediate impact player, and Lavonte David was a steal in the second round at linebacker.

20. St. Louis Rams

They were awful last year, but when healthy Sam Bradford is the best passer in the NFC West.  Stephen Jackson is still an elite back.  They also added athletic stud Brian Quick at receiver with the top pick in the second round, not to mention they bolstered their defense with two other second round picks.  Scat-back Isaiah Pead and receiver Chris Givens could also be fast contributors on offense.  Jeff Fisher will make this a smart fundamental team that has an incredibly bright future.

21.  New York Jets

The Jets just aren't very good.  Their offensive line is pretty good, their quarterback is average, they don't have a feature running back, and their best receiver is a complete headcase (Santonio Holmes). Their top two picks Quinton Coples (pass rusher) and Stephen Hill (WR) are two of the most physically gifted players in the draft, but who knows how that will translate to the field and the Jets unusual culture.

22. Buffalo Bills

Hard team to read here.  They lost Demetrius Bell who was an important part of their offensive line, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is decent at managing the game but lacks any of the elite physical skills you would want in your quarterback.  Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller, and Stevie Johnson are a nice trio of skill players, but they could use more talent on the perimeter.  Stephen Gilmore was a great pick at #10, he will be a very good player just like last year's top pick Marcel Dareus.  The Bills are slowly building an impressive core on defense.  Adding super-star pass rusher Mario Williams doesn't hurt either.  Give the Bills 1-2 more good drafts and they could be competing for the playoffs.

23.  Washington Redskins

I think RG3 will be able to make plays right away and Pierre Garcon, Josh Morgan, and Chris Cooley give him some viable targets.  The defense has promise with edge rushers Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan forming a frightening duo.

24.  Seattle Seahawks

If Matt Flynn can prove to be a good NFL starter this ranking could go up substantially.  Marshawn Lynch is a very good running back, and the offensive line is young and improving.  Seattle had a strange draft but they do have a lot of defensive talent.

25. Cleveland Browns

I don't really like the pick of Brandon Weeden, but I know Trent Richardson can play and make a big impact immediately.  I think his running will keep the Browns close in a lot of games.

26.  Minnesota Vikings

Matt Kalil solves the left tackle issues, and hopefully Adrian Peterson will be back near the beginning of next year.  Percy Harvin and newly signed Jerome Simpson represent a talented if temperamental receiving duo and the tight end combo of Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson could be Christian Ponder's best friend.  If Ponder has what it takes, this team could turn around fast.  Getting Harrison Smith (safety Notre Dame) was a really important pick for this defense.

27.  Arizona Cardinals

Kevin Kolb, you are out of excuses.  Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are very nice targets to throw to.

28. Indianapolis Colts

I think Andrew Luck will be good right away.  Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener should provide nice targets to throw to.

29. Tennessee Titans

Maybe this is way too low but I just don't see a quarterback, a great defense, or skill players that really scare me unless Chris Johnson can regain his old form.

30.  Jacksonville Jaguars

The defense has some young talent, and Maurice Jones Drew, Marcedes Lewis  and Justin Blackmon surround Blaine Gabbert with some really nice talent.

31. Oakland Raiders

Sorry Raider fans, Carson Palmer is done, you don't have a good offensive line, the receivers are raw and the defense is unspectacular.

32.  Miami Dolphins

The Ryan Tannehill-Reggie Bush combo doesn't really scare anyone.

Reviewing the 49ers Draft

Why review only one team?  Because it's my blog, this is the team I love, and looking at 32 teams picking about 7 players each is too much work.  I'm also calling it a review rather than a grade because we really won't know how well teams drafted until these rookie hit the field.

49ers Draft

Round 1: A.J. Jenkins WR, Illinois

I liked Jenkins as a prospect watching him in pre-draft footage.  He was productive at Illinois notching over 90 catches last year as opposed to the 29 catches the more flashy prospect Stephen Hill compiled.  Jenkins was also a bit of a combine freak, running a 4.37 40 yard dash.  Jenkins is a sudden athlete with good size just over 6 foot.  The only gripe I have about this pick is that perhaps the Niners could have moved back 5-10 spots and still gotten him, though this is the man they wanted all along.

Round 2: LaMichael James RB, Oregon

James is a good pick from the standpoint that he can help what was a plodding offense get some explosive plays, but I'm not sure he meets much of a need.  In a backfield with Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, and Brandon Jacobs, a second round pick seems high for James.  Maybe the writing is on the wall for older backs Gore and Jacobs, or maybe Harbaugh and GM Trent Balke simply think they can get James the ball 7-10 times a game and he will make an impact.

Round 4: Joe Looney OG, Wake Forest

Looney fits a major need with guard Adam Snyder leaving for the Cardinals.  Looney should provide competition for last year's late round pick Daniel Kilgore for the starting right guard spot, though I think perhaps the Niners could have addressed this position earlier.  Looney is known as a technician with good strength who has the intelligence to assimilate quickly to the NFL.

Round 5: Darius Flemming OLB, Notre Dame

Flemming is a pure pass rusher, and he's good at it.  Parys Haralson, Aldon Smith, and Ahmad Brooks are still going to be the main rotational guys at outside linebacker, but Flemming will come in when there is no doubt it's a passing situation.  He adds versatility to the Niners, and should be deployed on the 49ers tremendous special teams unit as a new weapon.

Round 6: Trent Robinson S, Michigan State

Robinson is a good overall athlete who started for three years at a big-time program and he fits a position of need.  Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner are an excellent duo of starters but there isn't much in the way of depth behind them, hopefully Robinson can win the third safety spot.

Round 6: Jason Slowey C, Western Oregon

The Niners under Trent Balke have continually stockpiled young offensive lineman and built that unit through the draft.  Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati have turned into starters (Iupati is exceptional, Davis is growing).  Daniel Kilgore is going to battle for a guard spot with Looney, and Slowey may prove to be an eventual replacement for Jonathan Goodwin.  Slowey is not a very good athlete, but he's strong and can move people in the run game.

Round 7: Cam Johnson DE, Virginia

Johnson had a fourth round grade from a lot of scouts because he is a good athlete with strength, who moves well for being 270 pounds.  I think he projects as a situational pass rusher and might just be big enough to play a little defensive end in the 49ers 3-4.

Summary:

I Liked: Because of some of the maneuvering the 49ers did in this draft they have a whopping 13 picks in next year's draft, which can't be overlooked.  I liked how San Fran focused on continuing to add playmakers to an offense that sorely lacked them last year.  The receiving group now consists of Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and A.J. Jenkins, along with star tight end Vernon Davis.  The Backfield boasts pro-bowler Gore, the promising Hunter, the bruiser Jacobs, and the potentially electrifying LaMichael James.  Alex Smith should logically be able to build on the best season of his career with another year under a great offensive system, and the talent around him growing exponentially.  Looney is a key to this draft class, if he can come in and push Kilgore or even steal the starting spot, then the 49ers offensive line could really gel into an elite unit.  Iupati and Joe Staley are stars are there positions, and Anthony Davis could grow into one.  Darius Fleming and Cam Johnson add some athleticism, depth, and potentially some pass rush to the front 7 which is already vicious, and Robinson may help shore up secondary depth.  Slowey is a solid pick if he can be a good backup for Goodwin.

I Didn't Like: Jenkins might have been had later in the draft, and the Niners could have accrued more picks by moving back.  James is an explosive player, and the offense needs help, but not really at the running back spot. I think picking a guard in the second or even first round would have addressed the biggest need. The 49ers defensive front 3 is excellent with Justin Smith, Isaac Sopoaga, and Ray McDonald but there is very little depth behind those players and not much was added in this draft.  Carlos Rogers was re-signed, Tarell Brown and Chris Culliver are promising corners and Tramaine Brock and Parrish Cox are good athletes who can compete over the 4th corner spot.  Still, another good cover man was a need in my opinion, and the Niners got nobody to compete for playing time at that position.

Overall:  The 49ers are going to have a much more talented offense that's hitting its groove in year number two of the Harbaugh regime.  The best defense in the league is all back from last year, and some potential depth was added in the draft.  Special Teams is still in tact with David Akers, Andy Lee, and Ted Ginn all back, and I expect a lot of these rookies to become contributors to the dynamic special teams unit for San Francisco.

Who Each Team Should Take in 2012 NFL Draft

1.       Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB Stanford

There’s no doubt about this pick, and I do subscribe to the theory that this many scouts and personnel experts can’t be wrong.  The kid might not walk on water, but he’s going to be a hell of a player.  Indy fans might want another Peyton Manning, I think what they’re getting in Luck is the next Aaron Rodgers.  He’s mobile (his combine numbers were identical to Cam Newton’s) he’s the most accurate thrower in the draft, played in a pro system, has a very strong arm, and he’s the smartest football player to come out in years.

2.       Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor

The Skins have to take RG3 not only because they gave up a king’s ransom to get him, but also because he’s the first potential franchise changing player they’ve had an opportunity to draft in years.  Washington has some nice pieces on defense, and they added Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon to complement Chris Cooley in the passing game.  Griffin has Mike Vick speed, with better accuracy, and an infinitely better head on his shoulders.  Both Luck and Griffin will be stars, and either would be great #1 overall picks. 

3.       Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, LT USC

The Vikings are trying to screw this up as only they could, attempting to trade back and stockpile picks when they have a chance to draft a franchise player at a true position of need.  Kalil is athletic, strong, smart, durable, and fills a huge void on the Vikings offense.  He plugs in immediately and protects last year’s investment, Christian Ponder.  Kalil’s brother, Ryan, is an all-pro center for the Panthers, Matt might turn out to be even better. 

4.       Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson, RB Alabama

Don’t tell me they have to give Colt McCoy a receiver unless you believe Colt McCoy is the answer at quarterback.  Getting Richardson gives you a franchise back that can run behind studs Joe Thomas and Alex Mack for the next 5-7 years.  Yes running backs have a short life span in the league, but a truly impactful one can make you relevant fast.  Richardson like Luck is the best runner to come out in a while, since Adrian Peterson. 

5.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma St.

My Draft Philosophy is that unless you have a glaring need; take an opportunity to make yourself really good at something.  Adding Blackmon to newly signed Vincent Jackson and incumbents Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow would give the Buccaneers one of the best receiving corps in football.  With the addition of all-pro guard Carl Nicks to an already strong offensive line, bringing Blackmon into the fold sets up Josh Freeman with everything he should need to return to his form of two seasons ago.

6.       St. Louis: Morris Claiborne, CB LSU

St. Louis is mad if this is the way things go, but really they shouldn’t be.  Claiborne is an elite prospect and would form a formidable duo with newly signed Cortland Finnegan.  The Rams defense has some promise with Chris Long and James Laurinitis, and Claiborne would represent the next building block of something truly special.  I know Sam Bradford needs weapons, but the worst thing to do is reach to get him a weapon, when you could have gotten a similar player in a later round.  Besides, sometimes a good defense is a quarterbacks best friend (ahem Alex Smith).

7.       Jacksonville Jaguars: David DeCastro, OG Stanford

Yes all conventional wisdom will say this is too high to select a guard.  People will say Jacksonville needs some sex appeal, something to draw people to the games etc.  Well, ultimately what draws people to games is winning teams.  And the Jaguars have missed on a whole lot of picks lately.  DeCastro is maybe the best lineman in the draft and he will help be the glue to a young and struggling line in Jacksonville.  Not to mention, he will help protect Blaine Gabbert, who showed some bad tendencies last year, but it’s way too early to bail on him after selecting him in the first round.  Maurice Jones Drew would also probably like this pick.

8.       Miami Dolphins: Melvin Ingram, DE South Carolina

Don’t reach for the wrong guy; I just can’t say it enough.  Ryan Tannehill is talented, but he was a wide receiver for two years, and then played in the wide open big 12 where the game is very different from the NFL.  Pair Ingram with Cameron Wake and you’ve built on an already impressive defense.  Draft a passer in round two or three where you get a good value for them, and don’t have to reach.  The draft is about improving your team, not taking chances or making panic boom or bust moves. 

9.       Carolina Panthers: Fletcher Cox DT, Mississippi State

Jon Beason will be back for the Panthers at linebacker so as tempted as I am to put Luke Kuechly here, I think Cox fits a bigger need.  Cox is a good pass rusher from the inside, an active and disruptive player that excelled in a man’s league, the SEC.  Pair him with Beason and add some defensive backs later in the draft and the Panthers begin to rebuild what was a really bad defense last year. 

10.   Buffalo Bills: Luke Kuechly LB, Boston College

Kuechly is just a good all-around player.  He’s smart; runs well, can cover, and is a sure tackler.  I think he’s the type of guy that makes a few pro-bowls and is always a positive contributor to your team.  Marcel Dareus is going to be a star, and putting Kuechly behind him along with the return of a healthy Kyle Williams is an exciting thought for the Buffalo defense.

11.   Kansas City Chiefs: Stephen Gilmore CB, South Carolina

The Chiefs have some really nice pieces coming back to the offense- Jamal Charles, Tony Moeaki, and last year’s top pick Jonathan Baldwin will hopefully develop to complement Dwayne Bowe.  I don’t love Matt Cassel or Kyle Orton, but this is a team with enough weapons to make those players serviceable.  Gilmore would make a really nice complement to budding star Brandon Flowers at the other corner and Tamba Hali rushing the passer will make Gilmore’s transition easier. 

12.   Seattle Seahawks: Quinton Coples DE, North Carolina

In terms of size and ability Coples is very reminiscent of another former Tarheel, Julius Peppers.  Seattle has some nice pieces on defense, and adding premier pass rusher could take them to the next level. 

13.   Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd,  WR Notre Dame

I like Floyd, I don’t know that he’s a star but he’s a big physical talented player that will be trouble if you try to single cover him.  Alongside Larry Fitzgerald Floyd should flourish as a second receiver.  If Kevin Kolb can’t make it work with those two wide receivers than he’s just not the guy. 

14.   Dallas Cowboys: Mark Barron, S Alabama

The offense is loaded with talent, the front 7 is strong, and it’s the secondary that really needs help.  Dallas needs corners as well, but Barron is the best defensive back on the board at this point.  He hits like a linebacker and covers a lot of ground.  He should start immediately and develop into a good starter. 

15.   Philadelphia Eagles:  Michael Brockers, DT LSU

Brockers is a huge man with great talent who produced at a big time program.  He also fits a need as the Eagles were terrible up the middle of their defense last year.  New middle linebacker Demeco Ryans and Brockers should be a true shot in the arm for this defense. 

16.   New York Jets: Dontari Poe, DT Memphis

The Jets defense is starting to age and the defensive front could use an influx of youth and talent.  Poe is a big time risk with big time upside, sounds just like Rex Ryan’s type of player. 

17.   Cincinnati Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama

Kirkpatrick is a big time talent and fits the zone scheme the Bengals tend to use in coverage.  Jonathan Joseph’s departure hurt last year and Kirkpatrick can help fill the void opposite Leon Hall.

18.   San Diego Chargers: Kendall Wright, WR Baylor

Some might see this as a reach but Phillip Rivers too often is expected to just carry the team.  Wright is an explosive player that catches the ball well, is good after the catch, and seems the perfect weapon in the slot.  Wright, Antonio Gates, and Ryan Matthews are pretty nice Weapons to put around Rivers.

19.   Chicago Bears: Riley Reiff, OT Iowa

The Bears could use a solid, smart player that can come in and hold his own on the offensive line immediately.  That’s Reiff.  He may never be spectacular, but he should be solid right away and will turn into a good tackle opposite Gabe Carimi.   

20.   Tennessee Titans: Whitney Mercilus, DE Illinois

Mercilus is a pure pass rusher, and has a ton of talent.  It’s a position of need and if Mercilus is on the board, this is a no brainer. 

21.   Cincinnati Bengals: Cordy Glenn, G Georgia

They could probably use a complement to AJ Green, some help in the defensive front 7, and a running back to take Cedric Benson’s place since his wheels are about to fall off.  But, they also need to replace Bobbie Williams at guard, and Glenn is the best value above any wideout, d-lineman or running back left in my draft. 

22.   Cleveland Browns: Ryan Tannehill, QB  Texas A & M

I don’t love Tannehill but at pick 22, and needing a quarterback this is too good of a scenario for Cleveland to pass up.  In all reality there’s no way he lasts this long, but in a world where logic prevails (my draft world) Tannehill is a Brown with the 22^nd pick.

23.   Detroit Lions: Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford

The Lions have needed line help for a long time, and Martin is an above average athlete with solid technique and good intelligence.  Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson are true superstars, give them time to operate and they will win a lot of games.  Running back is also a need as is secondary help, but the line I think has to come first. 

24.   Pittsburgh Steelers: Don’t’a Hightower, ILB Alabama

Hightower is really a Steeler type of player.  He’s physical, strong, bruising and fits well as a replacement for James Farrior. 

25.   Denver Broncos: Coby Fleener, TE Stanford

Everyone gets better when Peyton Manning is on their team.  That means a Denver defense with some holes will get better just by virtue of Manning holding the ball longer and putting up more points.  So I say give Peyton the weapons he’s going to need.  Fleener is a good athlete, he’s big, will be great in the red zone and can contribute immediately. 

26.   Houston Texans: Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB Alabama

Is it me, or could you basically field a team with just Alabama and Stanford’s draft class this year?  Upshaw is a big strong player that can both rush the passer from the outside linebacker spot, and occupy blockers as a 3-4 end.  I think he continues to build the Texans defense into one of the best units in the league. 

27.   New England Patriots: Janoris Jenkins, CB North Alabama

You’d be correct in saying that this guy doesn’t really epitomize the “Patriot Way” but Bill Belichick also relishes reclamation projects, and loves to mold talent.  Jenkins is a top 15 player in this draft in terms of talent, and if put in the right environment like New England, maybe he flourishes.  New England needs corner help, and Jenkins has the raw talent to be a star. 

28.   Green Bay Packers: Jerel Worthy, DT Michigan State

I’m convinced the Packers defensive backfield has enough talent to regroup and play much better, and the offense is historically good.  They need help in the trenches and Worthy can probably play any spot along the defensive front.  He represents depth, versatility, and an upgrade in talent.

29.   Baltimore Ravens: Peter Konz, C Wisconsin

Matt Birk is as old as time and Konz could probably play guard until Birk retires and then slide over.  Ben Grubbs left via free agency so the interior line is a must to address.  Stephen Hill might be another thought at wide receiver, but they already drafted their burner last year in Torrey Smith.

30.   San Francisco 49ers: Stephen Hill, WR Georgia Tech

Yes they need a guard and they stocked up on wide receivers in free agency, but if Moss doesn’t work out, then they’re down to Mario Manningham and Michael Crabtree.  I think Hill represents a good value because of his rare size and speed, but I won’t be mad if the Niners go with Kevin Zeitler (guard, Wisconsin) here. 

31.   New England Patriots: Chandler Jones, DE/OLB Syracuse

So the Patriots get a cover corner and a pure pass rusher, this would be a good day for New England fans. 

32.   New York Giants: Doug Martin, RB Boise State

I don’t love taking a running back in the first round unless it’s a rare breed like Richardson, but it’s at the back end of the first round, Brandon Jacobs is gone, and Ahmad Bradshaw can’t carry the load by himself.  I think Martin will help right away, and reminds me of Mark Ingram coming out.  A balanced, solid runner who will go over 1,000 yards a time or two in his career. 

Pick-Down Final Standings

Final Results	Adam	Eric
Total Points	156	190
Playoff Record	5-6	5-6
Combined Record (Regular Season and Playoffs)	163-104	185-82

Super Bowl XLVI Pick-Down

With a heavy heart this 49er fan must prognosticate the outcome of the Super Bowl thinking of what could have been. But the Giants and Patriots earned their way to the big game, and to the victors go the nauseating amount of attention.

Speaking of nauseating, is it just me, or is the idea that the Giants are the “red-hot” team kind of a misnomer? The Patriots have won ten consecutive games and are 15-3. The Giants have won five-straight and are 11-7. I think people simply can’t resist comparing this matchup and this Giants team to the one that beat up Tom Brady in the 2008 Super Bowl. That’s a mistake.

New England is a completely different team from the one that nearly captured perfection. They don’t have Randy Moss, and their offense is not at all structured around the vertical passing game. The Giants' strength, their pass rush, is most effective when teams want to go deep down the field and the quarterback has to hold the ball longer.

I think in this game you will (1) See the Pats make a concerted effort to run the ball, and (2) Use jumbo and max protect packages even when throwing the ball.

Rob Gronkowski is not going to be 100%, yet I would imagine he’ll be ready to make some plays in the first half, and then his ankle will stiffen over the elongated Super Bowl half-time. I expect New England to feed Gronk when he’s feeling good, and then switch over to Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Deion Branch later on.

New England has a solid offensive line, and with maximum protection and Brady dialed in, I think they carve up the Giants' suspect linebacking and secondary groups. Everyone seems to think that the Patriots can’t win unless Gronkowski has 9 catches for 150 yards and 2 scores, but they have plenty of other options.

Wes Welker had 122 catches, 1,569 yards and 9 touchdowns this year. Hernandez had 79 grabs for over 900 yards and 7 scores. Meanwhile, Deion Branch chipped in 51 receptions for 700 yards and 5 end zone trips. Gronkowski is important, but he is not the end-all be-all for New England.

When New York has the ball the temptation is to think Eli Manning will go up and down the field on what has statistically been an awful Patriots defense. Manning will no doubt get his yards and make his share of plays, but New England’s defense is as healthy as it’s been all year. Patrick Chung is back in the mix at safety, as is play-making linebacker Brandon Spikes. I think New England will load up to stop the run in an effort to make Manning beat them. As good as Manning has been, I think New England will take their chances in a shootout between he and Brady.

Vince Wilfork is unblockable right now. He should have a huge impact against the run and even collapse the pocket around Manning. Under pressure, Manning has a tendency for making bad decisions. He will give the defense a chance to take the ball away, and I expect New England to capitalize.

Finally, I think Brady with his mastery of the short passing game can win the time of possession battle and wear down the New York pass rush, thus neutralizing the Giants' greatest strength and keeping Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham on the bench.

The Giants are a good football team, but they lost seven games this year for a reason; they are inconsistent. I think the bye week slows their momentum, and I also think Brady and Bill Belichick just aren’t going to lose another Super Bowl to the same team. Gimme the Pats, and screw the damn Giants.

Prediction: New England 34 – New York 27

--from @AdamHocking

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Giants vs. Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
	Adam	Eric
Conference Championship Record	0-2	1-1
Conference Championship Points	-8	8
Total Points	156	190
Playoff Record	5-5	5-5
Combined Record (Regular Season and Playoffs)	163-103	185-81

Conference Championships Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Ravens at Patriots	Ravens	Patriots
Giants at 49ers	49ers	49ers
	Adam	Eric
Divisional Round Record	4-0	2-2
Divisional Round Points	10	2
Total Points	164	182
Playoff Record	5-3	4-4
Combined Record (Regular Season and Playoffs)	163-101	184-80

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

I pick the 49ers because they possess more balance as a team than the Giants do across the board. They are better on special teams, defense, and running the ball. The only advantage New York has is Eli Manning. That same rationale is why I believe the Ravens will win in chilly Foxborough. The Patriots have Tom Brady, Wes Welker, the best tight end I may have ever seen in Rob Gronkowski, plus a tremendous all around threat in Aaron Hernandez. But beyond that?

Fact: New England hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record all season. It’s true. The only teams with winning records they faced, the Steelers and the Giants, they lost to.

What shouldn’t be lost is that Pittsburgh, the Giants, and the Ravens all can get pressure rushing just four men, which allows them to throw a lot of defensive backs on the field and hurry Brady without giving him obvious spots to throw the ball. Terrell Suggs is one of the best pure pass rushers in football, and the Patriots will have to double team him if they want to stop him from wreaking havoc. Doubling Suggs will force the Patriots to single block somebody and delay the release of a tight end or running back, a disadvantage to New England’s timing-based offense.

I expect the Pats to try to establish some semblance of a running game, and I expect that to be thoroughly rejected by the likes of Haloti Ngata, Corey Redding, Terrence Cody, Ray Lewis, and Suggs and company. All of this is a way of saying I think the Ravens can make New England one-dimensional.

Tom Brady can certainly win a game by putting a team on his back, but I don’t think he can do it against Baltimore. If Suggs can pin his ears back, then Ngata will almost certainly get push up the middle, the type of pressure that most disrupts passers, and Brady will be forced off rhythm. If Brady has to throw often and force some throws, expect ballhawks Ed Reed and Ladarius Webb to pick him off once or twice. They may get burned gambling once or twice as well, but Brady scores so often that if you can force a turnover, the risk is worth the reward.

Nobody on the planet earth can physically match Gronkowski, but Baltimore has the bruising linebackers in Suggs and Lewis to at least put a lick on him at the line of scrimmage or coming across the middle.

Baltimore has a statistically elite defense to match New England’s great offense. Conversely, Baltimore’s middle-of-the-road offense will match up with a Patriot defense that is statistically one of the worst units of all-time. The Patriots were seventeenth defending the run and allowed the 2nd-most passing yards ever. Joe Flacco is not a great quarterback, but with Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, Ray Rice, and some solid options at tight end, he should be quite effective against the soft Pats pass defense.

More than Flacco throwing the ball, I expect Baltimore to employ the tag team of Ray Rice and his fullback Vonta Leach often. I think Rice needs a minimum of 25 carries in this game. That will keep Brady off the field, set Flacco up for success, and help the Ravens’ defense stay fresh.

I know the Patriots offense is sexy, and the fact that they haven’t won a Super Bowl in a while makes them an alluring pick. But the fact is that Baltimore has been in the postseason six of the last seven years and hasn’t made it to the big game either. The Ravens are just as hungry, they know how to beat New England, and they know how to win in the playoffs. Football and crab cakes, that’s what Maryland does! Give me the Ravens as the more balanced attack to go on the road and, bounce New England to set up (gasp) The Harbaugh Bowl!

Prediction: Ravens 23 – Patriots 20

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

When I first started to hear all the talking heads, publications, and media types essentially guarantee that the Giants were going to roll into San Francisco, beat the 49ers, and advance to the Super Bowl, I was upset at the lack of respect for the Niners, but then I remembered that the media is a “flavor-of-the-day” type of business. Last week the Saints were the hottest team in the history of the world, and this week it’s the Giants. I also noticed that more than thinking the Giants would win, the sports media seems to be focused on the prospect of a Giants-Patriots Super Bowl rematch, which I think influences the thinking to a large degree.

People tend to look at the stat sheet from the Saints-Niners Divisional Playoff game and see that Drew Brees threw for 462 yards and think the San Fran’s defense broke down. What they don’t realize is that Brees also threw the ball 63 times because the Niners knocked Pierre Thomas out of the game and shut down a good Saints rushing attack. As a team the Saints ran the ball 14 times for 37 yards, a 2.6 per rush average. Thomas was the seventh running back the 49ers have knocked out of the game in their seventeen contests this season. Of course Brees is bound to put up video game yardage when he has to throw all day long.

People also look at the 32 points San Fran allowed as another sign of defensive breakdown, but really aside from one play where Darren Sproles broke loose, the 49ers played one of the better defensive games I’ve seen all year. The late touchdown to Jimmy Graham was kind of a fluky play where Patrick Willis and the safety covering fell down and misjudged the ball. It just as easily could have been Brees’ third interception.

The other thing people fail to realize is that the Giants beat the Packers because they are perfectly constructed to beat a team like Green Bay. New York can get tremendous pressure with their front four, allowing seven men to drop back into coverage, and all the Packers want to do is throw the ball. Eli Manning is one of the few players that can match Aaron Rodgers in an aerial show, and the Giants have great run after catch receivers in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. That, combined with the Packers’ lack of pass rush and horrendous tackling, united to make the Giants a glass slipper fit to beat the Packers.

When they face the 49ers, the Giants won’t be putting four defensive ends on the field all that often because San Francisco has no desire to throw the ball 40-50 times. The Niners would rather line up and use their 8th-ranked rushing attack to wear out the Giants 19th-ranked rush defense, and in the process beat up on the vaunted pass rushers of New York.

It should also be noted that while the Giants do get good pressure, when they don’t, it’s big trouble. New York ranks twenty-ninth in the league in passing yardage allowed per game.

The 49ers will also make the Giants one-dimensional, which is exactly what they did to the Saints and what they’ve done all season. Over the course of the year the 49ers allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, per attempt, and the least rushing touchdowns of any team in the entire league. And unlike New Orleans, the Giants do not possess five bona fide weapons (Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson) in the passing game to distract the 49ers from playing the run. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are very good players, but they are the only truly imposing threats in the passing game. Thus, instead of chasing All-Pro tight end Graham and the do-everything Sproles around all day, the 49ers linebackers (especially NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis) can key on stuffing the run, reading Manning, and freelancing more to make plays. Carlos Rogers has earned every bit of his trip to the Pro Bowl this year, and he will lock down on either Cruz or Nicks while the other wideout will likely see quite a bit of double coverage.

The Giants are healthier than they were when San Francisco beat them earlier in the year, but the 49ers blew that game open only to have the Giants rally late in fourth quarter to make the score closer than it should have been. Like now, the Giants were a “hot team” coming into San Francisco at 6-2. In that game the 49ers did what they always do: played superior special teams, limited Brandon Jacobs to 55 yards on 18 carries, and won the turnover battle, intercepting Manning twice. Cruz and Nicks had a combined 8 catches for 125 yards.

Although the Giants certainly can get pressure with their front four, they don’t blitz that often, and that’s what Alex Smith likes most. He’s not good against added pass rushers, but one of his better throwing performances on the year came against New York because they only rushed four guys, which opened passing lanes and gave Smith the ability to read the coverage.

The Giants’ linebackers and secondary are not particularly talented, and Vernon Davis is a complete mismatch for them. I look for the Niners to pound the ball to set up the play-action pass, max protect Smith, and let him make throws when they are presented.

The 49ers were inexperienced in the playoffs heading in, but that game against the Saints was about as big a stage with as much pressure as any team could possibly face, and the 49ers answered the bell. They are ready for the next step, no longer with any questions about what playoff football is all about. With the best defense and special teams in the league, I expect the 49er offense to again do enough to beat the “red hot” Giants at what should be a rocking Candlestick Park. The Niners win and advance to the Super Bowl, and I wet my pants.

Prediction: 49ers 26 – Giants 17

Divisional Round Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Broncos at Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Texans at Ravens	Ravens	Ravens
Giants at Packers	Giants	Packers
Saints at 49ers	49ers	Saints
	Adam	Eric
Wild Card Round Record	1-3	2-2
Wild Card Round Points	-4	0
Total Points	154	180
Combined Record (Regular season and playoffs)	159-101	182-78

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

First two quick asides:  As a huge fan of the 49ers, there is bound to be bias in my predictions going forward, but at 13-3 they have proven to be an excellent football team.  Moreover, I’m really just excited to be talking about San Francisco in the context of a divisional round playoff game.  It’s been a long time, and it feels fine.  Second quick thought: I like the symmetry of the divisional round this year.  In a season where passers like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford took statistics to new heights, we also have the likes of TJ Yates, Alex Smith, Tim Tebow, and Joe Flacco still alive.  In fact, we have an equal divide of flamethrowers (Manning, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady) and so-called “game managers” (Smith, Flacco, Yates, and Tebow).  Just some food for thought, but I digress.  Now, my predictions!

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

We all saw the Tebow Magic last weekend against Pittsburgh, and I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see that kind of performance coming.  But I also steadfastly believe that Tim Tebow is not a starting-caliber passer in the NFL, and the reason for his success against Pittsburgh was the extent to which the Steelers stacked the box and dared Tebow to throw.

Even though New England has a horrible defense statistically, I think Bill Belichick will devise a way to allow Denver a lot of yards between the 20s and then stiffen in the red zone.

Basically for me it comes down to who is going to be better in the red zone, Denver or New England.  Both teams are going to move the ball.  Denver will pile up yards because the Patriot defense is atrocious, and New England will because their offense is a machine.

I think playing at home and with the pressure of two-straight postseason losses weighing on Brady and Belichick, the Patriots will respond with a great game.  I think Brady might be in for a historically good performance, though to Denver’s credit, their defense has done a very good job of harassing opposing quarterbacks.

New England has to feel great having Brady against the remaining AFC field of passers: Tebow, TJ Yates, and Joe Flacco.

I’d like to pick the upset here because I need to catch Eric, but that would be a throwaway pick in my opinion.

Prediction: Patriots 34 – Broncos 26

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Stealing the thought from my compatriot Eric, I don’t think there is that wide of a gap between TJ Yates and Joe Flacco.  I’d rather have Flacco going into this game, but I think Yates can be adequate with a really good rushing attack surrounding him and an increasingly healthy Andre Johnson.

I also think the front seven of the Texans which includes studs like JJ Watt, Connor Barwin, and Brian Cushing might be a younger and nearly as good version of the Ravens’ front seven.  All that is a way of saying I think this game will be close, but ultimately I have to ride with the Ravens, who are 8-0 at home this year.

Both New England and Baltimore can smell a path to the Super Bowl and could not have asked for better draws in the divisional round.

The Texans have been great running the ball all year, but the Ravens stop the run as well as just about anyone thanks to Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, and Terrell Suggs, who is underrated as a run-stopper.  I think ultimately too much pressure will be put on TJ Yates to make plays and manufacture points, and while I really like the Texans personnel, I’m not sure Yates is equipped to handle a tenacious Baltimore team on the road.

I don’t love Flacco, but he’s been in big time games before.   I think it’s a close defensive struggle, but Baltimore will stack the box and keep Ed Reed focused over the top on Andre Johnson to prevent any big plays down the field.  I look for Suggs to have a couple of sacks, perhaps force a fumble, and for Reed to bait young Yates into an interception as well.  Winning the turnover battle will allow Baltimore to play their bruising style of football, and let the offense rest on the broad shoulders of Vonta Leach and Ray Rice.

I like the Texans, and if Matt Schaub were in this game I would pick them, but ultimately I’m going with the more seasoned team at home.

Prediction: Baltimore 20 – Texans 13

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

I really don’t like this matchup for the Packers.  They can’t run the ball, and their pass defense is statistically the worst in the NFL.  That’s not good when the Giants come to town and their primary strengths are rushing the passer and Eli Manning hitting receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.

The Giants know the Packers are going to throw all day long, and they can bully the Packers’ offensive line with just four pass rushers.   Marshall Newhouse, Evan Dietrich-Smith, and TJ Lang are going to be overmatched on Sunday, and while Josh Sitton and Scott Wells are very good offensive linemen, that’s just two of five adequate starters.

Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Matthias Kiwanuka, and Osi Umenyiora are all healthy and firing on all cylinders.  When the Giants rush those four and drop seven defenders into coverage, I’m not sure how the Packers block that front, or at least give Aaron Rodgers enough time to find receivers that will be covered down the field.

Considering the Packers’ inability to run the ball, the Giants will pin their ears back and ramp up the pass rush even more.  In addition, the Packers were near the bottom of the league in sacks allowed (41 on the year).

Defensively the Packers have the personnel and talent (Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews, Tramon Williams, BJ Raji) to make a lot of plays, but the defense has been anything but solid this year and has missed many tackles, especially concerning with the run after catch ability of both Cruz and Nicks.

The Packers have been the best team all season long, but sometimes a team gets hot in the playoffs, and I just think it’s the Giants’ time.  In New York’s last three games they’ve outscored the Jets, Cowboys, and Falcons a combined 84-30.  Aaron Rodgers has covered up a lot of weaknesses for Green Bay this year, but Manning can match Rodgers close enough to expose those weaknesses.

Prediction: Giants 31 – Packers 27

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

Oh my what a matchup!  These teams are a combined 27-6 on the year, and the Saints boast perhaps the league’s most powerful offense, while the 49ers likely have the best defense in the game.

The 49ers want to control the ball and keep Drew Brees off the field as much as possible, while the Saints want to push tempo, spread the field, but also feature a strong, three-headed rushing attack.

When the Saints have the ball, I figure the 49ers to work from the ground up, meaning stop the run first to limit Brees’ effectiveness in the play-action game.  Even though the Saints run the ball well, the 49ers are virtually impossible to run against, limiting opponents to a league-best 77 yards-per-game.  I think the Saints may have a bit more success than that because the threat Brees presents will take some of the 49ers focus off the ground game, and also because the Saints can mash at the line of scrimmage behind Pro Bowl linemen Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, and Jermon Bushrod.  Still, on the whole I expect the 49ers to hold New Orleans to around 100 yards, and perhaps less on the ground.

The real issue comes when the Saints spread the defense out.  While the Niners are good against the pass, and particularly stingy in terms of giving up points, they can be susceptible to giving up long passing plays.

I expect pro bowl corner Carlos Rogers to lock up with the Saints’ #1 receiver, Marques Colston.  Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem will likely be handled by Tarrell Brown and rookie Corner Chris Culliver, respectively, though I expect safeties Donte Whitner and the Pro Bowler Dashon Goldson and to provide a lot of help on the back end.  The 49ers must make the Saints earn every yard and really limit explosive plays.

Jimmy Graham, the Saints all-world tight end, and Darren Sproles, the do-everything New Orleans back, are probably the toughest matchups.  Graham is so hard to defend because of his 6’7” frame, athleticism, and wonderful hands.  Sproles is just the opposite: diminutive at 5’6”, but lightning quick and incredibly elusive.  Fortunately for San Francisco, two of the three All-Pro inside linebackers elected by the Associated Press this year belong to the 49ers in Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman.  I would expect Bowman to key on Sproles and Willis and a safety focus on Graham.

The 49ers excel at getting to the quarterback with just four rushers, but the Saints are the best offensive line they’ve faced all year.  The one weak spot is right tackle Zack Strief, and I expect super rookie Aldon Smith to be lined up over Strief all day long.  The Saints will likely help Strief quite a bit, but that means a tight end or back (Sproles or Graham) will have to delay their release to get a chip on Smith.  It also means that All-Pro defensive end Justin Smith should see a fair share of single blockers to dominate.

When the 49ers have the ball, they are going to test their 8th-ranked rushing attack against a solid rushing defense; the Saints rank twelfth in rushing yards allowed per game.  Meanwhile, the 49ers 29th-ranked passing attack will be evenly matched with the Saints 30th-ranked secondary.

I expect the Niners to be able to possess the ball, ride Frank Gore, and work Vernon Davis overtime.  While Jimmy Graham may be the better player, Davis certainly isn’t facing an all-pro group of linebackers, and should have the matchup advantage.

The Saints are going to blitz constantly, which means Smith has to get rid of the ball quickly, and short routes to Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis could lead to long runs through a suspect New Orleans secondary.

Essentially, I see the 49ers offense as a pretty even match with the Saints defense, and the Saints great offense will be facing perhaps an equally great defense in San Fran.  The difference then will be special teams, coaching, and the turnover battle.  In terms of special teams, the 49ers boast the best punter and maybe the best kicker in the league.  Statistically San Francisco averaged the best starting field position of any team, and conversely pinned opponents with the worst starting field position on average.  In other words, the Niners are the best special teams unit in football.

Quickly, another element is that the 49ers have had two weeks to rest and prepare for New Orleans, while the Saints played a physical Lions team last week and now must travel across the country.

In outdoor road games this year the Saints averaged 26 points per game.  In home games, the 49ers scored 28.  Additionally, the 49ers allow just 11 points per game at home on the season.

Finally, the 49ers led the league with a +28 turnover ratio, while the Saints where -3 on the year.

At home, with superior special teams, a defense than can match up with a great Saints offense, a tremendous coaching staff with an extra week to prepare, and an offense that scores more than people think, I like my 49ers to ride on through to the Conference title game.

Prediction: 49ers 30 – Saints 24