NFC East: 2011 Division Preview

Philadlphia Eagles

The clear winners of the lockout-shortened offseason, the Philadelphia Eagles have made themselves probably the most purely talented team in the league.  Work remains though to live up to the hype.  With so many new faces, it will take a concerted to effort to get everyone on the same page.

No other team assembled near the talent that the Eagles did.  Even when you thought they were done, Philadelphia just kept signing guys.  In order to all fit under the cap, many of the high profile players took less money for the chance to play with Michael Vick and join the self-proclaimed “Dream Team.”

A lot pressure rides on the electric athlete, Michael Vick’s shoulders.  In order for this team to reach the Super Bowl, Vick has to hold up for an entire season and playoff run, which is no guarantee.  Newly acquired backup Vince Young will surely see some playing time behind the stylistically injury-prone Vick.  If Young can get the playbook down, it might even be worth it to play him a few games here and there just to keep Vick fresh for the playoffs.

Vick is dominant as an athlete and getting better as a passer, but if he can fully utilize the stacked arsenal of DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Steve Smith, Brent Celek, LeSean McCoy, and Ronnie Brown remains to be seen.

The defense underwent all kinds of change too with Philadelphia landing the ultimate offseason prize, Nnamdi Asomugha; trading for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie; and signing Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins to a defensive line that already boasts Trent Cole and emerging pass rush threat Brandon Graham.

The only things the Eagles don't have are linebackers.  Their strategy in this pass-happy league seems to be stop an opposing offense from the front end and in the back—a Colts-like philosophy for many years—then don't worry about the middle of the defense.  Get a lead and let your pass rushers go to work.  Be mindful that they could get run over though.

On a fast track this might be the best team in football, but in the winter months when the field is slippery and slow and after Vick sustains a season full of hits, how will they adjust?  In what looks like a Super Bowl-or-bust season for Andy Reid, his job depends on it.

Biggest Strengths: Their overall talent with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Trent Cole, and more.

Biggest Weaknesses: Lineup turnover, Michael Vick’s injury risk, and the interior of offensive and defensive lines (the center and guards inside Jason Peters and new addition Ryan Harris, defensive tackles).

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in NFC East

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

According to both Adam and myself, the Cowboys are due for a rebound after a woefully underachieving 2010 campaign that signaled the end of the Wade Philips era.  Jason Garrett came in mid-way through last year and coaxed a much better effort from the veteran team, finishing 5-3.

Building off that momentum, Tony Romo will come back healthy—he missed the entire second half of the season after breaking his clavicle Week 7—with lots to prove.

Romo has the weapons with which to do it.  Miles Austin’s production took a dip without Romo throwing him the ball, and this year he should return to his Pro Bowl 2009 form.  After a spectacular rookie season, Dez Bryant’s flashes of greatness made Roy Williams expendable, and expectations are high for the young wideout.  Complementing Austin and Bryant over the middle is one of Romo’s ever favored targets, Jason Witten.  Going over 1000 receiving yards for the second-straight year, Witten remains among the league’s top tight ends.

Elsewhere on offense, Dallas needs to hash out their running game.  Who is going to run the ball for this team, Felix Jones or Tashard Choice?  Neither of those guys is particularly suited to be a feature back.

Even after drafting tackle Tyron Smith in the first round, the Dallas offensive line is still a pretty decrepit unit led by the ancient Andre Gurode, Kyle Kosier, and Leonard Davis should they re-sign him.

There are some talented individuals on defense, but gauging the unit on paper, as a whole it doesn’t add up to much.  DeMarcus Ware is a superstar pass rusher that opposing offenses have to account for on every play.  Nose tackle Jay Ratliff makes hay in the trenches and has to gameplanned for as well.  Corners Terrance Newman and Mike Jenkins are talented cover men but far from excellent in run support.

If the defense can force turnovers and give the offense the ball without too much damage, considering the offensive talent, these Dallas Cowboys can be a very good team.

Biggest Strengths: Masterminded by Jason Garrett, Tony Romo passing to Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten should be prolific.

Biggest Weaknesses: The offensive line is still a problem, and DeMarcus Ware needs some help for this defense to be special.

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in NFC East

Adam’s Prediction: 11-5, Second in NFC East

New York Giants

Nothing the Giants do overwhelms you, but they are a solid team that in both of our projections finishes .500 or higher.

Hakeem Nicks looks to be the breakout star on this offense after catching 79 balls for 1052 yards and 11 touchdowns a year ago.  Nicks’ number of looks will surely go up this season, but Eli Manning will miss his third down safety blanket Steve Smith and red zone option Kevin Boss; both departed in free agency.

With those two pass catchers no longer an option, it may mean more action for the running game, which features the dynamic, explosive Ahmad Bradshaw.  And though veteran Brandon Jacobs has lost a step, he still runs like a Mack truck.

The Giants will hang their identity on their defensive line.  Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, Osi Umenyiora, and the emerging Jason Pierre-Paul pressure the quarterback from all angles.  Rookie Marvin Austin will be a welcome addition to the defensive tackle rotation featuring Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard.  With so many guys to fill four spots, Perry Fewell is licking his lips drawing up pressure schemes.

The safety positions are filled by the athletic Antrel Rolle and Kenny Phillips.  Flanking them though, cornerback looks a little shaky.  First round pick Prince Amukamara is out indefinitely due a broken foot requiring surgery and will surely be missed when the Giants are forced to play Aaron Ross, Terrell Thomas, and/or Corey Webster.

So the secondary needs a boost, but perhaps the vicious pass rush can make up for the lack of talent in the back four.  The linebackers leave something to be desired.

Biggest Strengths: Pass rush.

Biggest Weaknesses: Michael Boley should not be a team’s best linebacker.

Eric’s Prediction: 8-8, Third in NFC East

Adam’s Prediction: 10-6, Third in NFC East

Washington Redskins

Yikes.  John Beck or Rex Grossman; it’s time to prove your guru status Mike Shanahan.

If you can somehow avoid looking at the quarterback situation, things look even more dire for the rest of the Redskin offense.  Ryan Torain, Tim Hightower, and rookie Roy Helu make up an unflattering running back combo.  Apparently you can’t play wide receiver in Washington unless you’re 30 years old.  To round out the receiving corps after 32-year-old Santana Moss, Washington brought in spring chickens Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth.  The Redskins’ number one option on offense, Chris Cooley, is out a four weeks with a knee injury and will miss developing chemistry with whoever ends up throwing him the ball.

The best thing you can say about Washington is they got rid of the mammoth headache that was Albert Haynesworth and his NFL-record $41 million of guaranteed money.

Edge rusher Brian Orakpo and safety LaRon Landry are excellent players, but additional defensive talent does not exist for the Redskins.

This could get ugly.

Biggest Strengths: Brian Orakpo.

Biggest Weaknesses: Everyone not named Brian Orakpo.

Eric’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in NFC East

Adam’s Prediction: 2-14, Fourth in NFC East

--from @jeuneski

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas needed to get younger and more athletic on the offensive line, and by drafting USC offensive tackle Tyron Smith, they did exactly that.  Smith was the most physically talented pass protector in the draft, so getting him 9 was a fine value.

Bruce Carter (LB, North Carolina) in the second round maybe wasn’t a huge need, but he can provide a big time pass rush opposite Demarcus Ware.

Getting DeMarco Murray in the third round didn’t make a whole lot of sense, though I perceive him as a first round talent, so I can’t kill the move too much.  With Marion Barber growing older and Felix Jones’ injury issues, perhaps Murray could find some carries in the crowded Cowboy backfield, Tashard Choice be damned.  He also has the speed and talent to play slot receiver and return kicks.  Murray might be the type of dynamic player that puts Dallas’ already talented offense over the top.

Fourth round pick David Arkin (OT/OG, Missouri State) is another good athlete to add to the aging Cowboys offensive line.  He might not be ready yet, but he could develop into a nice player.

Dwayne Harris (WR, East Carolina) is another player drafted to perhaps work out of the slot and return kicks.

They got the best tackle in the draft, and it fit their largest need.  Bruce Carter is a big time talent that could put the Dallas pass rush at an elite level.  DeMarco Murray wasn’t a real need but adds huge talent and big value in the third round.  I think Murray makes their pick of Dwayne Harris a little redundant.  They could have done more to address their secondary, but they got younger and better on the offensive line, and added quality talent in Murray and Carter.

Grade: B-

New York Giants

They needed to do more to upgrade their offensive line, but in terms of improving their defense, the Giants had one of the very best drafts of any team.  Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska) could have gone in the top-10, but New York got him at nineteenth.  Amukamara should be able to start—and play well—from Day One.  I think he’s an eventual Pro Bowl player.

Marvin Austin (DT, North Carolina) was another top-10 talent that the Giants this time nabbed in the second round.  He can play any position on the line and will make an early impact.  Austin joins Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, Matthias Kiwanuka, Osi Umenyiora, and Chris Canty to create maybe the best defensive line in football.  That front should harass any quarterback, and Amukamara should lock down receivers for years.

I also really like the Troy wide receiver Jerrel Jernigan in the third round.  The prototypical slot receiver, Jernigan’s a small but cat-quick player that runs good routes and will be impossible to cover in short spaces.  Jernigan completes an extremely talented receiving corps for New York.

Getting Greg Jones, the linebacker from Michigan State, was a robbery in the sixth round.  Jones was a star in college, tackles well, has solid range, is smart, and will start in this league.

James Brewer (OT, Indiana) was also a great value pick in the fourth.  At 6’6” and 325 pounds, he’s massive, strong, and athletic.  He has all the ability to develop into a starting player; it just may take a couple years.

They got two future stars among three starters for their defense.  That’s tremendous.  Jerrnigan provides an explosive dimension to their slot position and for kick returns, and Brewer could be a starter on the offensive line.  The only thing they could have done better is address the offensive line sooner.

Grade: A-

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia’s offensive line was shaky last year, and protecting Mike Vick is the most essential key to Eagles’ success.  So picking guard Danny Watkins (Baylor) in the first round was a great move.  He’s mature at age 26, athletic for the position, strong, and smart.  He can start right away next to Jason Peters and create a talented left side of the offensive line.

Secondary was a big area of need as well, and Philly spent their second and third round picks on guys—safety Jaiquawn Jarrett from Temple and corner Curtis Marsh from Utah State—that can help improve that unit immediately.  Jarrett is speedy enough for coverage, is a solid tackler, and smart player.  Marsh may have been a reach in the third, but at 6’1” and with 4.4 speed, he has the physical tools to succeed.

Oregon’s Casey Matthews joins the long line of Matthews’ to reach the NFL and provides a rangy, talented player for an Eagles linebacking corps in need of upgrades.  Matthews never stops attacking, and while he’s not the biggest or the fastest, he makes plays all over the field.

Getting Pittsburgh running back Dion Lewis in the fifth round was a steal.  He reminds me a lot of another current Eagle/former Pitt Panther, LeSean McCoy.  Lewis carried a huge load at Pittsburgh and is an incredibly talented and elusive runner.

Linebacker Brian Rolle from Ohio State was a good value in the sixth round.  He’s an experienced, smart player whose speed allows him to cover both tight ends and receivers.

The Eagles also added depth and developmental players by selecting two more offensive linemen in the fifth and sixth rounds.

They addressed their biggest needs drafting for the offensive line, secondary, and linebackers, which I really liked.  Even if I think they reached in places, they know more about the guys they selected than I do, and the continually well drafting Eagles must feel they can help.  I love Danny Watkins, they made their secondary deeper, and Dion Lewis will be a great addition to Philly’s already loaded set of skill players.

Grade: B+

Washington Redskins

I don’t know about Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue) in Round One.  He is a talented prospect who brings an edge rush, but if the Skins are playing a 3-4, he’s a bad fit.  He’s not big enough to play end in that system and not fluid enough to play outside linebacker.  Washington desperately needs a passer with Donovan McNabb assuredly headed out the door, and instead of taking Blaine Gabbert at pick 10, the Redskins traded back and selected an out of position defensive lineman.  I don’t understand that move.

Clemson defensive tackle Jarvis Jenkins was a good pick in the second round.  Jenkins is not a pass rush threat, but he does get off the ball quickly and will be a force against the run.  Certainly Washington has improved their front seven with Kerrigan and Jenkins joining stud linebacker Brian Orakpo.

Leonard Hankerson (WR, Miami) was a really good pick.  Washington has needed a number one type receiver for years now, and Hankerson has the size (6’2”, 210) and speed (4.40 40-yard dash) to fit that bill.

Roy Helu (RB, Nebraska) is seen as a reach, but I like the pick.  He’s got great playing speed, and he is a one-cut-and-go-type runner.  I think he will be a productive player in the NFL.

Evan Royster (RB, Penn State) was a workhorse in college and is a powerful runner.  Between Helu and Royster, the Skins certainly upgraded their backfield in the wake of the waived Clinton Portis.

Niles Paul (WR, Nebraska) is a physical specimen at 6’1”, 225 pounds that runs a 4.45 40-yard dash.  He has the physical tools to be a starter; he just needs to learn the position.

Washington also had six picks in the sixth and seventh rounds that they used on developmental players.

Since they didn’t draft a quarterback, Washington must think they are going to get a starter in free agency.  In that view, it’s not a bad thing that the Skins moved back in the draft.  They had lots of needs and accumulated lots of players.  Kerrigan and Jenkins should be starters and improve the front 7.  Hankerson has big time talent at wide out, a position of need.  They supplemented the running back spot with solid players and added a lot of developmental talent.  In all, they added at least five guys that will impact this team, and time will tell about the later round picks.  My only beefs are that Kerrigan doesn’t really fit their sytem, and maybe they should have taken a quarterback, but I understand addressing other areas.

Grade: B-

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins

#9 Dallas Cowboys

What They Need: It’s always interesting when a talented team that underachieved the previous year picks this high in the draft.  I get the feeling that with the correct selection, the Cowboys could be right back in contention for a deep playoff run.  Offensively, Dallas has no need for the skill positions.  Tony Romo is a little older, but he's still in his prime as one of the top-10 quarterbacks in the league.  Dez Bryant looks like a budding superstar, and Miles Austin is a Pro Bowl-level player.  Jason Witten is aging, but is still very good.  Felix Jones is a tremendous talent at the running back position, but he’s always injured.  Marion Barber is a bruiser, but he’s been banged up as well and has lost a step. Drafting a running back here would be an outside possibility.  It would be a fun pick for the fans, but it’s not a pressing need.  The offensive line by contrast, is a huge area of need.  Marc Colombo is getting on in years and has never been stellar. Alex Barron is an embarrassment when forced into action, and Doug Free is largely unproven.  Kyle Kosier is probably their most solid lineman, but as is the theme, he's 32 and not getting younger.  Next to Kosier plays aging center Andre Gurode.  The other guard, Leonard Davis, is 32 but he moves like he’s 42.  The line desperately needs an infusion of youth and athleticism.  Defensively the Cowboys run a 3-4, just keep that in mind moving forward here.  Their front three is solid, with Jay Ratliff the only standout. Though Ratliff plays the nose, he’s slightly undersized for that position and could move to end if Dallas drafted a big nose tackle with this pick. The inside linebackers aren’t special, but they’re solid enough.  There wouldn’t be a middle linebacker prospect worthy of the ninth pick any way.  In terms of pass rush, when you have DeMarcus Ware, that’s all you need.  Anthony Spencer brings some nice pressure opposite him, though anyone playing opposite Ware will get some sack opportunities.  In the secondary Terence Newman is still a good cover man, but at 32 is getting old.  Mike Jenkins, who was so good two years ago, took a step back last year.  I view that as an aberration, indicative of a struggling team.  Jenkins is really talented and only 25.  The safety position is weak but won’t be addressed this high in the proceedings.  The Cowboys' main need areas are offensive line, defensive line, middle linebacker, and safety.  Running back and corner are outside possibilities for this pick.

Who They Might Pick: We’re starting to move to the second tier of prospects at this point in the draft, not to say there aren’t really good players available.  Given who’ll be available, they should address either the offensive or defensive line.  If they go with offensive line, they’ll take a tackle; guards and centers are a rarity among top ten picks.  The offensive tackles to choose from should be USC’s Tyron Smith, Colorado’s Nate Solder, and Boston College’s Anthony Costanzo.  I leave Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi off the list because he’s a plodding, run blocking tackle.  The Boys' priority has to be athleticism.  If they go with defensive line, the pick here should be Stephen Paea from Oregon State, though Corey Liuget from Illinois and Phil Talyor from Baylor are possibilities as well.

My Advice: Take the USC tackle Tyron Smith.  He’s a great athlete who should start at left tackle right away, allowing Doug Free to move to right tackle.  That would represent two young and athletic bookend tackles to help protect Romo, while Kosier, Gurode, and Davis blast open holes in the middle.  That trio in the middle of the offensive line can be really good, but they have to be surrounded by athletic tackles, or the whole offensive line is too slow to pass protect.  In drafting Smith you make the whole offensive line better, allowing Romo, Felix, Bryant, Austin, and Witten to flourish.

At the ninth pick, the Dallas Cowboys select Tyron Smith, OT, USC.

#10 Washington Redskins

What They Need: Can you draft a new owner?  I know, I’m hilarious, now settle down so you can read the rest of this.  Prevailing logic is that Donovan McNabb will not be a Redskin next year, and that leaves Rex Grossman.  So the next chain of logic would say, they need a quarterback, badly.  Grossman is horrible, and if he’s your starter, you won't win more than 5 games.  Their running back position is equally dire.  Clinton Portis is now gone and Ryan Torain is their feature back.  Receiver is, well, awful as well.  Anthony Armstrong is their best target, and two years ago he was playing in the Arena League.  The offensive line is mostly a patchwork.  Last year’s top pick Trent Williams should be a very good player at tackle.  Opposite him is Jammal Brown, a good player as well.  The middle of the line is weak.  Defensively the Skins run a 3-4, which is the reason Albert Haynesworth has been so ineffective and so unhappy. Haynesworth is not in Washington’s plans moving forward, leaving the rest of their defensive line is suspect.  London Fletcher is still a really good inside linebacker, but he’s 35 years old.  Pass rush specialist Brian Orakpo is probably the best player on the entire team.  Their cornerbacks are so-so.  DeAngelo Hall has great games and terrible games, and Carlos Rogers is solid in coverage but can’t intercept a ball.  All Phillip Buchanon brings to the table is speed.  Safety is probably the strength of the team, which is not a sign of a very good club.  LaRon Landry is a monster; he could be the best safety in the league very soon.  Chris Horton is an athletic and talented player next to Landry.  So, they need a quarterback, a running back, offensive line help, receivers, defensive linemen, linebackers, and corners.  Wow.

Who They Might Pick: I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington traded down from this slot to accrue more selections and address their multiple needs.  I would flatout expect them to trade down if Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton are gone and they don’t love Jake Locker.  I know coach Mike Shanahan wants to draft and groom a young signal caller, but it has to be the right guy.  Locker really played poorly last year, couldn’t raise his team to a high level, and struggled with accuracy at the combine.  We’ve seen in recent drafts that winning and accuracy are absolutely premium in evaluating a quarterback.  I cannot imagine Locker going this high.  Their next most pressing needs are receiver, defensive line, offensive line and cornerback.  I don’t think there’s a corner worthy of the 10th pick if Prince Amukamara and Patrick Peterson are gone.  That leaves the guy I’ve been name dropping for the last few teams, Stephen Paea, as a strong possibility.  Julio Jones would also be a nice pick here.  He would add huge talent to a horrible corps of pass catchers and would provide whoever the quarterback is with a nice target.  JJ Watt from Wisconsin might be a fit as a 3-4 defensive end.  He’s a big, strong, energetic player that has a true knack for making impact plays.  He’s the type of guy who may not be a star, but will almost certainly be a positive force for your football team.  And maybe without another great direction to go in, Watt could be the guy.  Center Mike Pouncey from Florida could also be a good pick, his brother, Maurkice, made the Pro Bowl last year as a rookie also at center.  Pouncey would give the Skins three talented lineman to build around, and would set a nice foundation for, again, whoever they find to take snaps.

My Advice: Take Mike Pouncey from Florida.  If Washington drafts Julio Jones they could ruin him by throwing him on the field without a competent quarterback.  If they pick defense, they won’t be setting the table very well for their eventual signal caller.  Some scouts like Mike Pouncey more than his brother; if that’s the case this guy should go in the top-5, but as a center, he won’t.  Trent Williams, Pouncey, and Jamal Brown would be a nice core for the offensive line, and would give the whole offense a foundation to build from.

With the tenth selection, the Washington Redskins take Mike Pouncey, C, Florida.

--from Adam

(first image from zimbio.com, second from giantsgab.com)