AFC West: 2011 Division Preview

Kansas City Chiefs

Since the Kansas City Chiefs start Matt Cassel at quarterback it’s easy to identify the whole team as vanilla.  However, the cast of playmakers Scott Pioli has assembled is one of the more dynamic groups in the league.  Look no further than the 26-year-old Dwayne Bowe, who cemented his status as a Pro Bowl number one receiver last year with over 1,100 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Bowe is now joined by perhaps an even more physical presence opposite him in rookie Jonathan Baldwin.  Many were surprised when Kansas City drafted Baldwin in the first round, but the 6’4”, 230-pound mountain of a receiver with an impressive 4.5 40 is a great deep threat and incredibly skilled at snatching jump balls away from defenders.  Baldwin should become a terror in the red zone as well.  Though it may take Baldwin some time to catch on, considering the rest of the Chief offense, it won’t hurt if Baldwin isn’t 1998 Randy Moss.

With agility reminiscent of another former Chief, “The Human Joystick” Dante Hall, jitterbug Dexter McCluster is a threat to do something electric whenever he touches the ball.  McCluster can return punts, play a little running back, and work out of the slot as well.

Coming over from Todd Haley’s former stomping grounds in Arizona, Steve Breaston rounds out a versatile, talented, and exciting receiving corps.

Tight end Tony Moeaki had a superb rookie year last season and displayed excellent hands and a knack for getting open.  Moeaki’s no Tony Gonzalez, but he is a very good player who should continue to improve.

All this and we still haven’t gotten to last season’s number one rush offense.  The definition of a playmaker, Jamaal Charles compiled nearly 1,500 rushing yards last year and averaged a staggering 6.4 yards per carry.  Again this season Thomas Jones will be the thunder to Charles’ lightning.  Jones showed he has enough left in the tank last year racking up 896 rushing yards.

Casey Wiegmann still holds down the center spot pretty well at age 38, and Ryan Lilja is solid at guard.  Former Raven Jared Gaither brings a mammoth presence to the right tackle position and should provide great push in an already potent running attack.  If Brandon Albert can maximize his big-time talent, this should be a very good offensive line.

Cassel isn’t great, but with his supporting cast he doesn’t need to be.  “Get rid of the ball and let my many playmakers do their thing” is all Cassel should be thinking.  As long as Cassel stays out of the way, this could be one of the best offenses in football.

The Chiefs need a return on the huge investment they poured into top draft picks Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson.  I believe both are improving, but I also believe neither will ever prove worthy of their lofty draft statuses.  Out of Miami, rookie Allen Bailey may push both Jackson and Dorsey for time.

The real question up front is who will man the nose.  It could be twelve-year veteran Kelly Gregg who is perennially solid at occupying blocks.

Tamba Hali emerged as a star at rush linebacker last year compiling 14.5 sacks, and I expect him to continue to produce 10+ sack seasons.  With tremendous range, power, and a nose for the football, Derrick Johnson has also settled in as a near Pro Bowl-level linebacker after nearly becoming a bust his first few years in the league.  Georgia rookie Justin Houston may see some time in pass rush situations as well.

At cornerback Brandon Flowers is one of the better cover men in the league, and Brandon Carr is a guy who won’t make the big mistake.  Javier Arenas could develop into a starting-level corner as well.  Eric Berry is going to be a superstar at safety; it’s as simple as that.

With talent, youth, and a good mix of veteran leadership all over its roster, the Chiefs should prove that winning last year’s AFC West title was no fluke.

Biggest Strengths: Playmakers abound on both sides of the ball—Dwayne Bowe, Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali, Eric Berry, and more.

Biggest Weaknesses: The defensive front hasn’t lived up to expectations.

Adam’s Prediction: 11-5, First in AFC West

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Second in AFC West

San Diego Chargers

The San Diego Chargers have certainly wasted a lot of time and early season games the past few years trying to get their act together when they should have been dominating a once weak AFC West.  Now LaDanian Tomlinson is long gone, Antonio Gates is great but aging, and Shawne Merriman’s days as “Lights Out” are a distant memory as he sits at the bottom of the Bills’ depth chart.

Even though there’s still talent on the roster, it’s not the type that has people saying, “If they fulfill their potential, they should compete for the Super Bowl.”  If the Chargers live up to their full potential they should win 10 games and compete with the Chiefs for the AFC West, a far cry from Super Bowl aspirations.

Phillip Rivers is great, and there’s no two ways about that.  Rivers puts up huge numbers no matter who his receivers are.  Throwing to practice squad players last year he still produced with the best of them.  Rivers has posted three-straight seasons with a 100 passer rating and has started all sixteen games in five consecutive years.

First-round choice Ryan Mathews showed flashes of speed, power, and elusiveness last year when he wasn’t dinged up, which wasn’t very often in his rookie campaign.

Gates, as mentioned, is still a star, and if he’s fully healthy this year the Charger offense could again be a top-5 unit.  Vincent Jackson has huge ability as a receiver, deep threat, and red zone monster, but I question where his head is at and if he will he stay healthy.  Patrick Crayton and Malcolm Floyd provide solid support but are strictly second and third options.  They can be positives if Jackson and Gates are healthy and drawing double teams.

The offensive line has talent but has played inconsistently at times, however Rivers is so sound, tough, and adept at getting rid of the ball that he makes their job look easier.  Nick Hardwick is a very good center and Marcus McNeill is a big talent at left tackle.  The guard tandem of Louis Vasquez and Kris Dielman is good when healthy.

The whole question about this offense is health.  If healthy, Rivers, Matthews, Jackson, Gates, Floyd, and a talented offensive line could make this a great offense.  But if the line breaks down, Jackson starts pouting, or Gates gets injured, it could be Rivers against the world yet again.

San Diego found an absolute diamond in the rough in nose tackle Antonio Garay.  Immoveable at the point of attack, Garay can really disrupt in the backfield, unusual for a 3-4 nose.  Luis Castillo is a very good 3-4 end as well: sound in his assignments and athletic enough to provide a little pass rush.  Second-year behemoth Cam Thomas and this year’s first-round pick Corey Liuget will join veteran Jacques Cesaire in rounding out the defensive line rotation.

Larry English, the supposed heir apparent to Shawne Merriman, has been a huge disappointment after being taken in the first round three years ago.  With just 5 sacks in two years, English has to step up to better balance sack artist Shaun Phillips, who posted 11 sacks last year.

At inside linebacker, Takeo Spikes still has something left in the tank.  He’s an excellent tackler, but he lacks range.  Stephen Cooper is a thumper inside as well and he, Spikes, Donald Butler, and rookie Jonas Mouton should all see action inside.

The corner spot is dicey where 32-year-old Quentin Jammer’s the best of an unspectacular bunch.  Antoine Cason must live up to his status as a high draft pick or the Chargers could have huge trouble covering.  Eric Weddle was a good re-sign at safety, and if by some miracle Bob Sanders can stay on the field, the Chargers could have a nice tandem.

The pressure is most on English and Cason, because if they don’t step up, opposing teams will have time to throw and open men to throw to.

Biggest Strengths: Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson.

Biggest Weaknesses: The Chargers’ pass defense looks weak without a very strong pass rush or talented cover men.

Adam’s Prediction: 8-8, Second in AFC West

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, First in AFC West

Oakland Raiders

Given the talent on the Oakland Raiders’ roster and the strides they made last year, generally this would be a team I would regard as on the rise.  Yet, as long as Al Davis plays the part of Kim Jong-il in the front office, it’s hard to envision real progress.

Heading into last year I was a pretty big Jason Campbell advocate.  I always felt he got a pretty raw deal considering his career passer rating of 82.5 and all-around solid numbers.  He even put up an 84.5 rating last season.  Now I’m not sure what to think.  Campbell still has a really nice arm and is a smart guy, but he’s never really taken that next step toward elite status.  It could just be that Oakland and Washington are about the most dysfunctional environments for a quarterback to develop.  Still, if Campbell’s not a plus, he certainly is not a negative for his team; he won’t lose the game.

It's the least surprising move in the history of transactions that the Raiders picked up Terrelle Pryor in the supplemental draft.  A sick athlete with nothing but raw potential and no discernible skills or mental awareness for his given position, he should fit in perfectly with Al Davis' crew.  I'm not sure Pryor will ever see the field as a starting quarterback except through injury or Oakland's curiosity to see what he can do in a game.  But hell, he ran a 4.4 40-yard dash, so he has to wear the silver and black.

Darren McFadden, though still dogged a bit by injuries, finally made good on the huge ability that made him a top-5 pick, rushing for 1,157 yards last season.

Davis has all the speed he could ever ask for in wide receivers Jacoby Ford and Darrius Heyward-Bey.  Though Heyward-Bey was the higher pick in his draft and has been in the league a year longer, he hasn’t shown the potential of Ford.  Perhaps in his third season he can really dig in and make some progress.  Another receiving option, Louis Murphy is a physical and fast wideout that is only 24, and I like his chances of becoming the number one wideout more than I do the former first rounder Heyward-Bey’s.

Losing talented tight end Zach Miller to Seattle really hurts this offense’s development.  Miller was their best route runner and had the best hands on the team.  New York Giant import Kevin Boss is a decent replacement, but he’s not as talented as Miller.

Robert Gallery had become a solid guard in the league, but Seattle stole him too, so Oakland lost two big components of their offense to Pete Carroll’s crew.  Oakland invested three draft choices in the offensive line this year, so that group is a serious work in progress.

Though losing Nnamdi Asomugha hurts in the short-term, paying $15 million a year for a 30-year-old corner isn’t smart for a team unless they are on the cusp of winning a championship, which the Raiders certainly aren’t.

Richard Seymour is still a stud as a 3-4 end, and Matt Shaughnessy is developing into a really nice player with pass rush ability.  Tommy Kelly might not be worth all the money Oakland pays him, but he’s a very good player and completes an excellent defensive front that gets to the quarterback surprisingly often.  Veteran John Henderson and youngster Lamarr Houston provide solid depth.

Rolando McClain had a decent rookie year, but he wasn’t spectacular.  He has major ability, and if he takes a big step in development this could be a very good front seven.  Kameron Wimbley provides consistent pressure off the edge and makes a nice pair with McClain.  The rest of the linebackers are unremarkable.

Michael Huff is probably the best player in a secondary that features a lot of unproven players and four rookies.

Biggest Strengths: Darren McFadden is an electric playmaker, and the defensive line has much promise.

Biggest Weaknesses: Al Davis, and for now, the Nnamdi Asomugha-less secondary.

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC West

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC West

Denver Broncos

Enough people are shouting, “I told you so” about Tim Tebow, now third on the Denver Broncos’ depth chart behind the supposed-to-have-been-traded Kyle Orton and the ever milquetoast Brady Quinn, that I feel no need to take a shot at him.  For new coach John Fox, Tebow is simply not his guy, and that probably spells long-term trouble for his prospects as a starter in Denver.

Looking at the real QB1, Orton is probably the best “game manager” in football.  Of all the passers that neither win or lose the game for a team, Orton is at the top of that heap.  Accurate, smart, and competitive, Orton doesn’t have a big arm, but he gets the ball out and limits turnovers.  In thirteen games last year Orton threw for 3,653 yards, 20 scores, and compiled an 87.5 passer rating.  Plenty of teams would kill for those numbers.

Running back Knowshon Moreno has been mostly a disappointment so far, especially considering he went in the first-round a couple years back.  In a John Fox offense he should get more carries than in the past, more opportunities to prove his worth.

Brandon Lloyd had a huge season last year, but now 30 years old, you have to wonder if his breakout was just a flash in the pan.  Last year’s other first round pick, Demaryius Thomas, did very little in his rookie campaign, and though he has big talent, I’m sure Denver wishes they could go back and pick Dez Bryant, who went two slots after Thomas to the Cowboys.

Tight end is a logjam of unproven players, and losing right tackle Ryan Harris to the Eagles breaks up what was this team’s strong point, their bookend tackles Ryan Clady and Harris.  Clady is the only proven player that remains up front, and though he’s a truly outstanding left tackle, he can’t block three guys by himself.

Elvis Dumervil’s return to health and the addition of top pick Von Miller could make Denver’s pass rush one of the NFL’s most dangerous.  Veterans Ty Warren and Broderick Bunkley provide some talent and experience to the defensive front, though the defensive line still has a long way to go to be a top flight group.

29-year-old linebacker DJ Williams is still a playmaker, and he should form an exceptional, athletic trio with Dumervil and Miller covering ground and making plays.

Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins are now both eligible for AARP benefits, though both are still above-average-to-good players for their respective positions.

Biggest Strengths: Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller will punish quarterbacks off the edge.

Biggest Weaknesses: Denver lacks offensive weapons and punch on the defensive line.  Overall there’s just not a whole lot of talent.

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC West

Eric’s Prediction: 5-11, Fourth in AFC West

--from @AdamHocking

NFL Draft Grades 2011: AFC West

Denver Broncos

 
Von Miller is about as sure of a prospect as there was in this draft, and he meets a big need, so I loved the pick.  Miller and the returning sack master, Elvis Dumervil, could give the Broncos an elite pass rush in 2011.
 

Denver spent two second round picks on guys that should come in and start immediately.  UCLA's Rahim Moore was the best safety in the draft and helps replenish an aging Bronco secondary.  With the very next pick in the second round, Denver took Orlando Franklin (OL, Miami), a very physical, athletic player that will probably play guard with Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris already locking down Denver’s tackle positions.  Franklin improves an already solid line.
 

Nate Irving was a solid third round pick who can play inside or outside linebacker.  Though not a great athlete, Irving is a smart, versatile player and a sound tackler.
 

Getting Quinton Carter in the fourth round was highway robbery.  The Oklahoma safety was the second best at his position behind Moore, who Denver took in the second round.  Moore and Carter should start next to each other for years and form a very good tandem.
 

In the later rounds the Broncos took flyers on two project tight ends, Nevada’s Virgil Green and Portland State’s Julius Thomas.  Both are big, fast, and talented players who played at small schools and will require a lot of development.
 

Miller should be a Pro Bowler, and Moore, Franklin, and Carter should all be capable NFL starters.  Irving may develop into a starter as well.  Denver drafted pretty well all around: one star, three or four potential starters, and two sleeper tight ends with big-time potential.  Their defense was horrible last year, and they added four guys that should play this next year and contribute, though I wish they would have done more to address their defensive line. 
 

Grade: A-
 

Kansas City Chiefs
 

The Chiefs overachieved last year.  They rode a strong running game, good special teams, smart quarterback play, and a decent defense to a 10-6 record.  Still, I think everyone knew this wasn’t a championship-caliber team; it was a well-coached group that needed a little more talent to reach the mountaintop.
 

With their first pick the Chiefs certainly got a huge talent, but the question is did they also get a huge headache?  Pittsburgh wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin is 6’5”, 230 pounds, runs a sub-4.5 40, has a huge vertical leap, and may be the best receiver in this draft at going up for jump balls.  Baldwin has the skills to be a Randy Moss-type deep threat and red zone option.
 

The Moss comparison is also apt with mental and off the field questions surrounding Baldwin.  He takes plays off, pouts when he doesn’t get the ball, and has been arrested.  Basically he’s a guy you have to worry about motivating and keeping on the straight and narrow.  I personally think “character issues” are overrated, and once a guy becomes a pro, he sees how hard he needs to work to succeed in the league.  In my personal opinion, Baldwin will be an impact player immediately to round out a talented group of skill players that includes Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, and Tony Moeaki.
 

The Chiefs hit the jackpot next pick drafting for an absolute need and getting good value.  Kansas City found a replacement for 37-year-old Casey Wiegmann in the talented Florida State center, Rodney Hudson.  Perhaps slightly undersized, Hudson is strong, athletic, technically sound, and committed to the game.  I think he is a starter in a year or two, a good if not great NFL player.
 

In the third round the Chiefs got a great value and addressed a big need in linebacker Justin Houston from Georgia.  Houston is a good but not elite athlete that is a natural pass rusher, who will eventually complement incumbent sack master Tamba Hali.
 

Allen Bailey (DE, Miami) was another good pick in the third round.  A terrific athlete for being 6’3” and 285 pounds, Bailey is ready for the NFL right now and fits Romeo Crennel’s 3-4.  The Chiefs have invested a ton of high picks in their defensive line recently, and without a great return, Bailey is good enough to come in and challenge or replace Tyson Jackson or Glenn Dorsey.
 

Ricky Stanzi was an interesting pick in the fifth round.  He has a solid arm and won a lot of games at Iowa, but he’s not talented enough to start in the NFL.  I think he will develop into a proficient backup that can come in and win a couple games when the starter gets hurt.
 

Jalil Brown (CB, Colorado) was a solid pick in the fourth.  A bit of a project but potential starter, Brown is big, fast enough, and plays with physicality.
 

Baldwin is a big risk to some, but a big reward in my opinion.  He takes their offense to another level of dangerous.  Hudson was the perfect combination of need and getting top talent in the second round.  Houston and Bailey were both steals in the third round.  Both could play this year, and both have big time potential.  Jalil Brown should be an eventual contributor to the secondary.  I think the Chiefs offense got much more explosive, and the defense has taken a step toward being a top ten unit because of this draft.
 

Grade: B+
 

Oakland Raiders
 

I like their first pick, spending a second rounder on Penn State center Stefen Wisniewski.  A solid player with good bloodlines, he may never be great, but he’s strong, is a worker, and loves the game.  He will be a starter in the league, and probably soon, but I just don’t know if he’ll ever make a Pro Bowl.
 

In the third round, Al Davis went all, well, Al Davis, reaching for a potential fourth or fifth round prospect in Miami cornerback DeMarcus Van Dyke.  A 6’1” corner with unreal speed, a blazing 4.25 40-yard dash at the combine, Van Dyke isn’t sound technically at all.  With the talent to be a first round pick, it’s now up to Oakland to develop him; the Raiders don’t exactly have a great track record making speed demons into real players.
 

I like the late third round selection of LSU offensive tackle Joseph Barksdale.  First, if you watch The Wire, you respect anyone with the name “Barksdale.”  Second, at 6’5” and 325 pounds, Barksdale is incredibly strong and very athletic for his size, an absolute beast.  The knock on him is his desire, but I think if coached properly, this is a late round gem.  He started 26 games in the SEC, the veritable NFL training ground, and was dominant at times.
 

In the fourth round the Raiders got another speedster, but this time they also got a proven player in Ohio State corner Chimdi Checkwa.  Checkwa is a trememdous athlete and skilled cover corner, but he isn’t going to come up and make big tackles.  He could be the heir apparent to Nhamdi Asoumgha who will likely leave as a free agent.
 

The run on speedsters continued in the late fourth round when Oakland picked Taiwan Jones, a running back from Eastern Washington that ran 4.35 40.  An absolute home run threat every time he gets the ball, Jones would be a nice complement to Darren McFadden out of the backfield, could be used as a receiver, and should certainly see time as a kick returner.
 

In the fifth round Oakland drafted Denarius Moore, receiver from Tennessee.  Moore is most known as a deep threat but also has good hands, runs nice routes, and should eventually crack his way into the receiving rotation.
 

Richard Gordon (TE, Miami) was a huge reach in the sixth, but, surprise, is a good athlete for the position.  He never played much and doesn’t really seem to understand the game, but he runs fast, which I guess is fine and dandy for Oakland. 
 

Drafting for speed is a good strategy because no gameplan can stop speed, but those speedy players also have to have good football sense and skills.  Wisniewski was a solid pick that will help the offensive line.  Van Dyke may be a star someday, or we may never hear his name again.  It all depends on how he commits and how his coaches develop him, which hasn’t been Oakland’s strength in the past.  I love the selection of Barksdale in the third, but he comes with the same “Can the Raiders get the most from this guy” question that all these picks do.  Coming from a big-time program, Checkwa is a talented corner who’ll start eventually.  Jones is an explosive running back with electric speed, but out of Eastern Washington, he’ll have a lot to learn.  Moore was a solid receiver in the fifth, and Gordon is a project player in the sixth.
 

Grade: B-
 

San Diego Chargers
 

Corey Liuget (DL, Illinois) is a really good player, and even if he wasn’t a need, I would have supported getting him at pick 18.  An athletic player that can rush the passer and is really hard to move in the run game, Liuget completes a talented front three with Antonio Garay and Luis Castillo.  That group could be dominant.
 

Clemson corner Marcus Gilchrist was a solid pick in the second round.  A bit undersized but very athletic and skilled in coverage, he’s an ideal nickel back to work on smaller slot receivers.
 

Michigan’s Jonas Mouton was a huge reach in the late second round.  San Diego had a chance to add another big-time linebacker like Justin Houston from Georgia, Martez Wilson from Illinois, Mason Foster from Washington, or Greg Jones from Michigan State, but instead took the undersized, slow-footed Mouton.
 

Vincent Brown (WR, San Diego State) was another reach in the third round.  He’s undersized and slow, running a 4.68 40-yard dash.
 

The selection of USC corner Shareece Wright gets San Diego back on the right track.  He went right about where experts thought he would and is a talented athlete that can eventually start, though he only started one year in college.
 

Stephen Schilling (OL, Michigan) and Jordan Todman (RB, UConn) were both good values in the sixth round, especially Todman.  A runner who produces in college can usually start in the NFL, and Todman was a force in the Big East.  He’s quick in and out of cuts and is a surprisingly powerful runner. 
 

I love the pick of Liuget, like the pick of Gilchrist, and then hated their next two picks.  They really could have added some top talent with six picks in the first three rounds, but I think they got just one sure-fire starter.  Todman was a nice pick in the sixth, and I appreciate that they tried to address their defense, but I just don’t think they picked the right players.
 

Grade: C-

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos

The NFL Draft is coming friends. Even mired in the dark shadows of an NFL lockout I know draft day paints an insuppressible smile all over your delirious faces. The draft makes us all into babbling fools. Every team is a championship contender for that one weekend in April, and that’s okay. In fact, that’s what’s great about the draft. It’s an event specifically geared toward the worst teams in the league. The season is miles away, and in a sense, reality is even farther. For one day, Bills fans can forget how bad they were last year, and how bad they’ll be next year, yet can still make statements like, “Ya know, if we get Cam Newton, I think we’re in the playoffs.”

None of us know how good any of these players will be, but we all have our favorites in mind, guys we want our team to take, and those are usually just the guys we’ve heard of. How many of us screamed bust last year when the Jaguars took Tyson Alualu, even though we’d never seen him play? Conversely, how many of us claimed that Jimmy Clausen or Taylor Mays were steals in the second round? In reality Alualu was very good, while Clausen and Mays did little to justify their second round status.

For fans the draft has little to do with reality and much to do with dreaming big. It’s uninhibited fun where people can get starry eyed about a prospect just because he had a sweet cone drill or get downright furious because their team drafted an edge rusher when they know damn well slot receiver was priority number one. The best part is that nobody really loses on draft day. Fans can spin their draft however they want because players won’t be taking the field for months.

With this upcoming series I want to look at each NFL team, their most pressing needs, and which players they might target to address those needs. I’m not going to tell you if the Falcons might nab a great special team’s gunner in the sixth round. I’m going to focus on the first round prospects, the players who might be available for each team with their top pick. I’ll address each team by the order of picks in the first round.

#1 Carolina Panthers

What They Need: The Panthers, frankly, need a lot. Their quarterback situation was a quagmire last year, though I’m not sure they want to jump ship yet on Jimmy Clausen. He wasn’t great, but he wasn’t working with a whole lot of support. The offensive line has talent, and the running backs are the strength of the team. Defensively the Panthers need almost everything. Corners Captain Munnerlyn, Richard Marshall, and Chris Gamble are solid enough. Linebacker Jon Beason is a star. The defensive front is weak, so if they choose to go defense with their top pick, look for them to address the front four.

Who they Might Pick: Carolina could decide to grab a quarterback if new coach Ron Rivera isn’t sold on Clausen. In that case they’ll either go with Blaine Gabbert (considered the most pro-ready, accurate passer) or Cam Newton (the most athletic/exciting player in the draft). I personally think the Panthers will go defense with this pick, and as I said, that likely means drafting a defensive lineman, where Nick Fairley is the most impressive prospect. He’s a rock in the middle that can stuff the run and is the rare pass rushing force from the tackle spot. Marcell Dareus from Alabama is also a top possibility, though he isn’t the same athlete as Fairley. If Carolina wants a pure pass rusher, look no further than Clemson defensive end Da’Quan Bowers. Bowers is a ridiculous athlete who turns his physical prowess into tremendous production.

My Advice: Give Clausen another year and see what he can do. Gabbert and Newton are far from slam dunk prospects. Take a more sure thing, and if Clausen stinks this year, get your quarterback next year. I would take Fairley. He’ll improve Beason’s life and pressure opposing passers. We saw what Ndamukong Suh meant to the Lions last year; perhaps Fairley could have a similar impact.

#2 Denver Broncos

What They Need: Similar to Carolina, the Broncos are a team with an unsettled quarterback situation and a new coaching regime. I have no idea if Head Coach John Fox likes Tim Tebow, but he’s said that Kyle Orton will be his starter. The Broncos’ offensive line is talented, and Knowshon Moreno is the future at running back. Brandon Lloyd had a breakout year at wideout, but he is the Broncos’ only real threat in the receiving corps. Since I don’t think quarterback is really a draft option for Denver and receivers generally don’t go second overall, defense is probably the direction to go. Elvis Dumervil is a stud pass rusher and should be back healthy after missing the entire 2010 season. 2009 first round pick Robert Ayers is a young prospect who could turn into a sack artist as well. Denver runs a 3-4 system, so drafting a defensive lineman typically means going after a big, immovable, two-gap player. There aren’t any of those type of prospects that could go this high; Fairley's athleticism is better suited for the 4-3. Denver's secondary is one of the oldest in the league and could use an infusion of talent.

Who They Might Pick: Since pass rush is an area of relative strength, and I doubt Denver will go offense with this pick, this selection basically comes down to a couple guys. Marcell Dareus is seen as a guy that could be a 4-3 defensive tackle or a 3-4 end. He’s a strong, fluid, and balanced athlete. He’s not flashy, but he won’t be overpowered, and he’s athletic for his size. Dareus would represent an incremental improvement to Denver’s front. The guy I love is LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson. His measurables are ridiculous: 6’2”, 219 pounds, and he runs a 4.3 40-yard dash. He’s as strong as a safety and fast as a corner. Peterson also isn’t just a combine freak. In the SEC he covered the likes of AJ Green and Julio Jones, both top-15 prospects, and did so admirably. If Denver drafts the LSU Tiger, they’ll be taking away half the field for the next decade.

My Advice: Take Peterson; look what Darrelle Revis has meant for the Jets. I believe that Peterson will be one of the best ten corners in the league the moment he steps on an NFL field, and he could eventually be the best cover man in the league, especially after he studies under Champ Bailey.

--from Adam

Catch and Shoot: Deron Williams and Carmelo Anthony

Looking at the Deron Williams trade to New Jersey

Nets Perspective: The Nets traded point guard Devin Harris and this year’s third overall pick, Derrick Favors, to acquire Williams.  New Jersey made the deal to land a superstar and shed some salary, perhaps to add another star down the road.  They found their superstar in the 26-year-old Williams, a great player for at least the next 5-7 years.  Harris is a near All Star-level player, and Favors could develop into a very good player down the road.  If you compare what the Knicks gave up for Carmelo Anthony and what the Nets gave up for Williams, it’s not even close.  The Nets paid a very high price to get their man, but prevailing NBA logic says that if you can deal for a sure-fire star, you pull the trigger, made easier in this case as Harris has probably plateaued in his development and Favors is a “what if” player.  There’s no way of knowing if Favors will hit his ceiling, so dealing these two for a sure thing was a good move.

Jazz Perspective: In trading a superstar, you never get back equal value.  Shaquille O'Neal was traded for Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, and Caron Butler.  Anthony was dealt for Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, Tim Mosgov, and a pick.  So you may ask, “Why trade him at all?”  Williams was unhappy in Utah and would have left when he hit the free agent market in two years.  From that point of view, it makes sense to deal him.  If you’re going to lose a star, you may as well get something in return.  The Cavaliers and Raptors got nothing but a few picks for LeBron James and Chris Bosh, and they are now probably the two worst teams in the league.  In Harris, the Jazz get a relatively young guard who can score and facilitate.  Favors joins a talented Utah front court that already boasts Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson.  The Jazz may even be able to stay in the playoff race this year, but certainly they will not be a championship contender.  The only way this move really pays of for Utah is if Favors becomes a star, but we just have to wait and see on that.  The Jazz are starting fresh with the resignation of Jerry Sloan and the exodus of Williams, yet they start fresh with some nice building blocks.  As a Jazz fan, you can’t ask for much more, and it could have been much worse.

Carmelo Anthony Bolts for the Big Apple

Knicks Perspective: Some argue that the Knicks gave up too much to acquire Anthony.  I think in keeping Landry Fields and acquiring Corey Brewer as part of the trade, those concerns are invalid.  Brewer replaces Chandler well, Anthony is a huge upgrade over Gallinari, and Chanucey Billups is just as productive as Felton.  In essence, Anthony was the best player that moved in this trade by far, and the Knicks got him, so it’s a win on their end.   Pairing Anthony with Amare Stoudemire gives the Knicks two of best 20 players in the game today, and both are young—Stoudemire is 28, Anthony 26—with futures ahead of them.  Stoudemire is third in the league in scoring while Anthony ranks fifth.  The Knicks now have as good a duo as any team in the league and may even go out and acquire another big piece down the road.

In the NBA, a single player has a bigger impact than in almost any other team sport.  Only five guys are on the court at a time, so one guy can make a huge difference.  LeBron James' absence has meant a 50 win difference for the Cavaliers...in the wrong direction.  Felton, Chandler, and Gallinari were playing well, but their numbers were inflated in Mike D’antoni’s run-'n'-gun system.  None of those players has superstar-level talent.  Role players can always be replaced; superstars are rare. 

Some would agree with my argument but say, “The Knicks could have just waited for the off-season and signed Carmelo without giving up a thing.”  That’s flawed thinking because with a looming lockout, Anthony likely would have signed a $65 million extension with the Nuggets rather than risk getting far less money under the new collective bargaining agreement.   If there’s a lockout and Anthony hadn’t signed with Denver, he would have been without any contract.  With the lockout as a strong possibility as it is, he almost certainly would have taken the guaranteed money from the Nuggets.

Nuggets Perspective: "Well, crap," is what Nuggets fans are thinking.  It’s kind of like when someone you love is seriously ill, but you have months to prepare for the inevitable.  You know they’re going to leave you, but at least you have some time to get mentally prepared.  No Nugget fans were surprised by Anthony's departure, but it doesn’t mean they weren’t sad or disappointed.  The Knicks had most of the leverage in this deal because they knew Anthony didn’t want to go to the Nets.  They also knew the Nuggets desperately wanted to get something for Anthony.  So as the only true bidder in the Carmelo sweepstakes, they could lowball Denver.  The Nuggets get a solid point guard in  Felton, probably top-15 in the league.  Chandler is a talented and athletic young player, but he is a role player to be sure.  The biggest talent the Nuggets acquired was Gallinari, a 6’10” pure shooter and versatile offensive player.  There are concerns about his knees holding up, but the game is there.  They also acquired a project big man in Mozgov.  Again, in the NBA, three nice players do not equal one great one.  With five guys on the court, one of them has to be able to dominate and take over the game.  Denver didn’t get anybody in this trade that can do that.  What they did get is a nice foundation and some salary cap room.  If they can lure a true star to Denver to replace the one they just lost, or somehow find one in the draft, they will have some very nice players to surround him with.  JR Smith, Aaron Afflalo, Gallinari, Felton, Chandler, and Ty Lawson represent some very good young players who have a future with the team.

Which Player is the Bigger Piece: Anthony complements another superstar in Stoudemire, so acquiring him might seem like the bigger splash, but Williams is the better singular building block.   The NBA is a point guard-driven league, and Williams is as good any point man in the game.  When you get Williams, every player on your team immediately gets better because of his court vision and ability to set up other players with great looks.  Anthony improves your team because he is scoring machine, but he doesn’t impact his teammates in the same way Williams does.

Recap: The Nets and Knicks are the big winners because they got the stars.  The Jazz did as well as you can when you trade your franchise player.  The Nuggets did slightly worse, but were pretty much hamstrung because Anthony only wanted to go to the Knicks, so they had to settle for a moderate package.  Still, they got something, and that’s better than letting your star walk for free.

--from Adam

The Mellow Sounds of the NBA Offseason

While this NBA offseason has been anything but peaceful and relaxing, there is still something 'Melo about it.  That would be the fact that Carmelo Anthony is going to leave Denver one way or another.  It's possible that the Nuggets may try to keep their current roster intact for one more title run, but they risk letting Anthony walk in free agency the following summer and receive nothing in return.

On the Move

More likely is that the Nuggets will see this dilemma as an opportunity to start from scratch.  No NBA fan wants to hear that about their team, but the franchises that realize when it is time to start over are the ones that spend the least amount of time picking in the lottery.  Every team goes through transitions, and the best way to ease through them is to maximize your assets.

Trading Anthony could net some very nice players/draft picks in return, and if he is certain to defect in a year, the Nuggets may as well leverage his worth into future building blocks for their franchise.  They do not currently have the pieces on their roster to defeat the Lakers, Heat, Magic, or Celtics, so they may as well implode the roster.

Dealing Anthony leaves the question of what to do with Chauncey Billups who would likely not want to participate in a rebuilding process at this stage in his career.  Billups could also be trade bait, and while he would not fetch the same return as Anthony, teams are always looking for a good point guard and the Nuggets could obtain solid players in exchange for the savvy veteran.

Though I wouldn't be entirely surprised if teams like the Mavericks, Lakers, Trailblazers, or Bulls at least inquire about Anthony, the following teams are rumored to be preferred destinations: the Nets, Knicks, Warriors, Clippers, Rockets, and Magic.  Let's take a look how Anthony could possibly land in these spots.

New Jersey Nets: With young assets to deal in return and likely another high draft choice, the Nets could make an enticing offer for Anthony.  (The only issue is that once they have Carmelo they will win many more games, thus devaluing the draft picks they could send to Denver.)  Perhaps Devin Harris, Terrence Williams, and two first round picks could pry Anthony loose.  That would leave the Nuggets with a very talented young point guard, a nice role player in Williams, and some picks to play with.  The Nuggets could also then deal Billups for a position of need.  The Nets meanwhile would have an imposing frontcourt of Carmelo, third overall pick Derrick Favors, and rising star Brook Lopez.

New York Knicks: This seems to be the trendy guess of where Anthony will land, but I'm not sure the Knicks have enough on their end to complete a trade.  Maybe a package of Raymond Felton, Danilo Galinari, Ronny Turiaf, and Kelena Azubuike could be enough to land Anthony, but the Nuggets would have to be desperate to move him for this to work.  These are promising players from the Knicks, but none of them are surefire difference makers.  The Knicks meanwhile would get the superstar tandem they have been looking for with Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, but they would have no supporting cast and no defense.  It would be a start though for hungry Knick fans, and perhaps they could add a third star next offseason.

Golden State Warriors: This team has a lot of individual pieces.  Monta Ellis is a prolific scorer, averaging over 25 points per game last year.  A package of Ellis and sixth pick Ekpe Udoh might be enough for the Nuggets to pull the trigger on an Anthony deal.  That would leave the Warriors with Stephen Curry, Anthony, and David Lee.  That lineup doesn't have the makes of a title contender, but it could easily be a playoff team with a ton of upside.  The Nuggets meanwhile would get a young slasher in Ellis and a great athlete with upside in Udoh.

Los Angeles Clippers: Eric Gordon has been proving his value in the FIBA Championships and his stock is rising.  Gordon alone would likely not be enough to land Anthony, but he would be the central piece in any deal.  Perhaps Chris Kaman and Gordon would do the trick, but the Clippers would be giving away a lot of production.  Still, if you can land a true superstar you should probably do it.  The Nuggets might like this deal because it could keep them competitive with their current roster.  Billups could stay and form a nice backcourt with Gordon, while Kaman would be a very nice inside presence.

Houston Rockets: Yao Ming is not trade bait because no team would take a chance on his injury-plagued body.  Kevin Martin may be the most tradable though, capable of scoring 20 per game in an efficient manner.  Perhaps he, Courtney Lee, and some draft picks could interest the Nuggets.  Houston would then have Aaron Brooks, Anthony, Luis Scola, and Yao (if healthy) as their core.  This would not be a great deal for Denver but it gives them something.

Orlando Magic: To me this is the most interesting potential landing spot, but also the hardest to work out.  The Magic's best tradable asset is Jameer Nelson, which means the Nuggets would likely have to move Billups too to make room for Nelson.  Rashard Lewis is an OK player but has a huge contract.  Vince Carter could provide some production and an expiring contract, but overall the Magic just don't seem like a financially feasible trade option.

Remember that Anthony does not have a no-trade clause, but it is in the interest of all parties that he goes to a place where he will be content; it just makes the logistics of the trade easier. So Anthony has some leverage, and ultimately we may see Carmelo in NYC, simply because that is where he wants to be.

--from Adam

(Image from coloradosportsdesk.com)