The "Other" 2011 NFL Predictions

Chad Ochocinco gets MTV on board for a reality show this season, “The Real World: New England Patriots.”  Cameras capture Tom Brady standing at the mirror for hours on end combing his hair, Bill Belichick drunkenly going down a Slip ‘n Slide naked, and after a tough loss Albert Haynesworth drowning his sorrows in mayonnaise.

Just when Peyton Manning’s neck injury appears fully healed, he tweaks it again filming a commercial for the Oreo Racing League.  Peyton’s done for the year after just his third lick.

Every single player in the league will make Jon Gruden’s All-Pro team.

Ben Roethlisberger gets accused of sexually assaulting Maurkice Pouncey during the center-quarterback exchange.

In the Bears-Packers Christmas day matchup, Clay Matthews Jr. snaps Jay Cutler’s leg in half LT-style and ends his career.  Players from around the league tweet that Cutler should have stayed in the game.

Taking a cue from Carson Palmer, rookie Andy Dalton decides to retire rather than play for the Bengals.

Rex Ryan gets another tattoo, this one in a more private area.  It says, “Suck This Belichick.”

Ron Jaworksi will be limited to saying the word “explosive” 37 times per MNF telecast.  Ratings plummet.

To better his chances at getting on the field, Terrelle Pryor decides to make the position change.  Pryor becomes the first streaker with a 4.4 40 in NFL history.

The Ravens-49ers Week 12 matchup is postponed after the two Harbaugh brothers get into a wrestling match at midfield just before kickoff.

Tiki Barber makes a successful comeback attempt.  He tricks the cornerback-deprived Giants into re-signing him by pretending he’s his twin brother Ronde.  When the deception is revealed, Tom Coughlin’s facial expression doesn’t change.

The Jets are their own worst enemy this season as Plaxico Burress teaches them how to shoot themselves in the foot.

Brett Favre unretires solely to ensure that when he texts pictures of his penis to various women he gets his due publicity.

Al Davis’ contributions guarantee the Raiders lead the league in terms of early bird specials eaten by one organization.

--from @AdamHocking and @jeuneski

AFC West: 2011 Division Preview

Kansas City Chiefs

Since the Kansas City Chiefs start Matt Cassel at quarterback it’s easy to identify the whole team as vanilla.  However, the cast of playmakers Scott Pioli has assembled is one of the more dynamic groups in the league.  Look no further than the 26-year-old Dwayne Bowe, who cemented his status as a Pro Bowl number one receiver last year with over 1,100 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Bowe is now joined by perhaps an even more physical presence opposite him in rookie Jonathan Baldwin.  Many were surprised when Kansas City drafted Baldwin in the first round, but the 6’4”, 230-pound mountain of a receiver with an impressive 4.5 40 is a great deep threat and incredibly skilled at snatching jump balls away from defenders.  Baldwin should become a terror in the red zone as well.  Though it may take Baldwin some time to catch on, considering the rest of the Chief offense, it won’t hurt if Baldwin isn’t 1998 Randy Moss.

With agility reminiscent of another former Chief, “The Human Joystick” Dante Hall, jitterbug Dexter McCluster is a threat to do something electric whenever he touches the ball.  McCluster can return punts, play a little running back, and work out of the slot as well.

Coming over from Todd Haley’s former stomping grounds in Arizona, Steve Breaston rounds out a versatile, talented, and exciting receiving corps.

Tight end Tony Moeaki had a superb rookie year last season and displayed excellent hands and a knack for getting open.  Moeaki’s no Tony Gonzalez, but he is a very good player who should continue to improve.

All this and we still haven’t gotten to last season’s number one rush offense.  The definition of a playmaker, Jamaal Charles compiled nearly 1,500 rushing yards last year and averaged a staggering 6.4 yards per carry.  Again this season Thomas Jones will be the thunder to Charles’ lightning.  Jones showed he has enough left in the tank last year racking up 896 rushing yards.

Casey Wiegmann still holds down the center spot pretty well at age 38, and Ryan Lilja is solid at guard.  Former Raven Jared Gaither brings a mammoth presence to the right tackle position and should provide great push in an already potent running attack.  If Brandon Albert can maximize his big-time talent, this should be a very good offensive line.

Cassel isn’t great, but with his supporting cast he doesn’t need to be.  “Get rid of the ball and let my many playmakers do their thing” is all Cassel should be thinking.  As long as Cassel stays out of the way, this could be one of the best offenses in football.

The Chiefs need a return on the huge investment they poured into top draft picks Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson.  I believe both are improving, but I also believe neither will ever prove worthy of their lofty draft statuses.  Out of Miami, rookie Allen Bailey may push both Jackson and Dorsey for time.

The real question up front is who will man the nose.  It could be twelve-year veteran Kelly Gregg who is perennially solid at occupying blocks.

Tamba Hali emerged as a star at rush linebacker last year compiling 14.5 sacks, and I expect him to continue to produce 10+ sack seasons.  With tremendous range, power, and a nose for the football, Derrick Johnson has also settled in as a near Pro Bowl-level linebacker after nearly becoming a bust his first few years in the league.  Georgia rookie Justin Houston may see some time in pass rush situations as well.

At cornerback Brandon Flowers is one of the better cover men in the league, and Brandon Carr is a guy who won’t make the big mistake.  Javier Arenas could develop into a starting-level corner as well.  Eric Berry is going to be a superstar at safety; it’s as simple as that.

With talent, youth, and a good mix of veteran leadership all over its roster, the Chiefs should prove that winning last year’s AFC West title was no fluke.

Biggest Strengths: Playmakers abound on both sides of the ball—Dwayne Bowe, Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali, Eric Berry, and more.

Biggest Weaknesses: The defensive front hasn’t lived up to expectations.

Adam’s Prediction: 11-5, First in AFC West

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Second in AFC West

San Diego Chargers

The San Diego Chargers have certainly wasted a lot of time and early season games the past few years trying to get their act together when they should have been dominating a once weak AFC West.  Now LaDanian Tomlinson is long gone, Antonio Gates is great but aging, and Shawne Merriman’s days as “Lights Out” are a distant memory as he sits at the bottom of the Bills’ depth chart.

Even though there’s still talent on the roster, it’s not the type that has people saying, “If they fulfill their potential, they should compete for the Super Bowl.”  If the Chargers live up to their full potential they should win 10 games and compete with the Chiefs for the AFC West, a far cry from Super Bowl aspirations.

Phillip Rivers is great, and there’s no two ways about that.  Rivers puts up huge numbers no matter who his receivers are.  Throwing to practice squad players last year he still produced with the best of them.  Rivers has posted three-straight seasons with a 100 passer rating and has started all sixteen games in five consecutive years.

First-round choice Ryan Mathews showed flashes of speed, power, and elusiveness last year when he wasn’t dinged up, which wasn’t very often in his rookie campaign.

Gates, as mentioned, is still a star, and if he’s fully healthy this year the Charger offense could again be a top-5 unit.  Vincent Jackson has huge ability as a receiver, deep threat, and red zone monster, but I question where his head is at and if he will he stay healthy.  Patrick Crayton and Malcolm Floyd provide solid support but are strictly second and third options.  They can be positives if Jackson and Gates are healthy and drawing double teams.

The offensive line has talent but has played inconsistently at times, however Rivers is so sound, tough, and adept at getting rid of the ball that he makes their job look easier.  Nick Hardwick is a very good center and Marcus McNeill is a big talent at left tackle.  The guard tandem of Louis Vasquez and Kris Dielman is good when healthy.

The whole question about this offense is health.  If healthy, Rivers, Matthews, Jackson, Gates, Floyd, and a talented offensive line could make this a great offense.  But if the line breaks down, Jackson starts pouting, or Gates gets injured, it could be Rivers against the world yet again.

San Diego found an absolute diamond in the rough in nose tackle Antonio Garay.  Immoveable at the point of attack, Garay can really disrupt in the backfield, unusual for a 3-4 nose.  Luis Castillo is a very good 3-4 end as well: sound in his assignments and athletic enough to provide a little pass rush.  Second-year behemoth Cam Thomas and this year’s first-round pick Corey Liuget will join veteran Jacques Cesaire in rounding out the defensive line rotation.

Larry English, the supposed heir apparent to Shawne Merriman, has been a huge disappointment after being taken in the first round three years ago.  With just 5 sacks in two years, English has to step up to better balance sack artist Shaun Phillips, who posted 11 sacks last year.

At inside linebacker, Takeo Spikes still has something left in the tank.  He’s an excellent tackler, but he lacks range.  Stephen Cooper is a thumper inside as well and he, Spikes, Donald Butler, and rookie Jonas Mouton should all see action inside.

The corner spot is dicey where 32-year-old Quentin Jammer’s the best of an unspectacular bunch.  Antoine Cason must live up to his status as a high draft pick or the Chargers could have huge trouble covering.  Eric Weddle was a good re-sign at safety, and if by some miracle Bob Sanders can stay on the field, the Chargers could have a nice tandem.

The pressure is most on English and Cason, because if they don’t step up, opposing teams will have time to throw and open men to throw to.

Biggest Strengths: Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson.

Biggest Weaknesses: The Chargers’ pass defense looks weak without a very strong pass rush or talented cover men.

Adam’s Prediction: 8-8, Second in AFC West

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, First in AFC West

Oakland Raiders

Given the talent on the Oakland Raiders’ roster and the strides they made last year, generally this would be a team I would regard as on the rise.  Yet, as long as Al Davis plays the part of Kim Jong-il in the front office, it’s hard to envision real progress.

Heading into last year I was a pretty big Jason Campbell advocate.  I always felt he got a pretty raw deal considering his career passer rating of 82.5 and all-around solid numbers.  He even put up an 84.5 rating last season.  Now I’m not sure what to think.  Campbell still has a really nice arm and is a smart guy, but he’s never really taken that next step toward elite status.  It could just be that Oakland and Washington are about the most dysfunctional environments for a quarterback to develop.  Still, if Campbell’s not a plus, he certainly is not a negative for his team; he won’t lose the game.

It's the least surprising move in the history of transactions that the Raiders picked up Terrelle Pryor in the supplemental draft.  A sick athlete with nothing but raw potential and no discernible skills or mental awareness for his given position, he should fit in perfectly with Al Davis' crew.  I'm not sure Pryor will ever see the field as a starting quarterback except through injury or Oakland's curiosity to see what he can do in a game.  But hell, he ran a 4.4 40-yard dash, so he has to wear the silver and black.

Darren McFadden, though still dogged a bit by injuries, finally made good on the huge ability that made him a top-5 pick, rushing for 1,157 yards last season.

Davis has all the speed he could ever ask for in wide receivers Jacoby Ford and Darrius Heyward-Bey.  Though Heyward-Bey was the higher pick in his draft and has been in the league a year longer, he hasn’t shown the potential of Ford.  Perhaps in his third season he can really dig in and make some progress.  Another receiving option, Louis Murphy is a physical and fast wideout that is only 24, and I like his chances of becoming the number one wideout more than I do the former first rounder Heyward-Bey’s.

Losing talented tight end Zach Miller to Seattle really hurts this offense’s development.  Miller was their best route runner and had the best hands on the team.  New York Giant import Kevin Boss is a decent replacement, but he’s not as talented as Miller.

Robert Gallery had become a solid guard in the league, but Seattle stole him too, so Oakland lost two big components of their offense to Pete Carroll’s crew.  Oakland invested three draft choices in the offensive line this year, so that group is a serious work in progress.

Though losing Nnamdi Asomugha hurts in the short-term, paying $15 million a year for a 30-year-old corner isn’t smart for a team unless they are on the cusp of winning a championship, which the Raiders certainly aren’t.

Richard Seymour is still a stud as a 3-4 end, and Matt Shaughnessy is developing into a really nice player with pass rush ability.  Tommy Kelly might not be worth all the money Oakland pays him, but he’s a very good player and completes an excellent defensive front that gets to the quarterback surprisingly often.  Veteran John Henderson and youngster Lamarr Houston provide solid depth.

Rolando McClain had a decent rookie year, but he wasn’t spectacular.  He has major ability, and if he takes a big step in development this could be a very good front seven.  Kameron Wimbley provides consistent pressure off the edge and makes a nice pair with McClain.  The rest of the linebackers are unremarkable.

Michael Huff is probably the best player in a secondary that features a lot of unproven players and four rookies.

Biggest Strengths: Darren McFadden is an electric playmaker, and the defensive line has much promise.

Biggest Weaknesses: Al Davis, and for now, the Nnamdi Asomugha-less secondary.

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC West

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC West

Denver Broncos

Enough people are shouting, “I told you so” about Tim Tebow, now third on the Denver Broncos’ depth chart behind the supposed-to-have-been-traded Kyle Orton and the ever milquetoast Brady Quinn, that I feel no need to take a shot at him.  For new coach John Fox, Tebow is simply not his guy, and that probably spells long-term trouble for his prospects as a starter in Denver.

Looking at the real QB1, Orton is probably the best “game manager” in football.  Of all the passers that neither win or lose the game for a team, Orton is at the top of that heap.  Accurate, smart, and competitive, Orton doesn’t have a big arm, but he gets the ball out and limits turnovers.  In thirteen games last year Orton threw for 3,653 yards, 20 scores, and compiled an 87.5 passer rating.  Plenty of teams would kill for those numbers.

Running back Knowshon Moreno has been mostly a disappointment so far, especially considering he went in the first-round a couple years back.  In a John Fox offense he should get more carries than in the past, more opportunities to prove his worth.

Brandon Lloyd had a huge season last year, but now 30 years old, you have to wonder if his breakout was just a flash in the pan.  Last year’s other first round pick, Demaryius Thomas, did very little in his rookie campaign, and though he has big talent, I’m sure Denver wishes they could go back and pick Dez Bryant, who went two slots after Thomas to the Cowboys.

Tight end is a logjam of unproven players, and losing right tackle Ryan Harris to the Eagles breaks up what was this team’s strong point, their bookend tackles Ryan Clady and Harris.  Clady is the only proven player that remains up front, and though he’s a truly outstanding left tackle, he can’t block three guys by himself.

Elvis Dumervil’s return to health and the addition of top pick Von Miller could make Denver’s pass rush one of the NFL’s most dangerous.  Veterans Ty Warren and Broderick Bunkley provide some talent and experience to the defensive front, though the defensive line still has a long way to go to be a top flight group.

29-year-old linebacker DJ Williams is still a playmaker, and he should form an exceptional, athletic trio with Dumervil and Miller covering ground and making plays.

Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins are now both eligible for AARP benefits, though both are still above-average-to-good players for their respective positions.

Biggest Strengths: Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller will punish quarterbacks off the edge.

Biggest Weaknesses: Denver lacks offensive weapons and punch on the defensive line.  Overall there’s just not a whole lot of talent.

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC West

Eric’s Prediction: 5-11, Fourth in AFC West

--from @AdamHocking

AFC South: 2011 Division Preview

Houston Texans

Over the last few seasons, the Houston Texans have had a 12-4 offense and a 4-12 defense, and they always finished 8-8 and out of the playoff race.  Such offensive potential always had sports fans and pundits salivating and saying, “This is finally the year Houston overtakes Indy for the AFC South title.”  Yet the Texans’ defensive shortcomings always proved otherwise.  So when I predict the Texans take the division this season, I do so with the expectation that Houston’s new-look defense will be much better than its 2010 version.

Starting with the knowns on offense, Matt Schaub is a Pro Bowl passer that always puts up huge numbers and commands the offense very well.  Arian Foster is just 24 and is coming off a league rushing title, though losing lead blocker Vonta Leach will hurt.  Andre Johnson is arguably the best receiver in the league.

Owen Daniels has made a Pro Bowl at tight end and appears to be healthy so far, but the injury bug has bitten him the past two seasons.  If he stays on the field, Daniels’ contributions make this offense take the step from good to great.

While the offensive line lacks big names, their production is undeniable, last year paving the way for the league’s leading rusher and allowing Schaub the time to amass well over 4,000 yards through the air.

Houston desperately needed to improve its defense, and it did just that this offseason.  Under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, the Texans first added number one pick JJ Watt, who brings great versatility and playmaking ability to the front line.  Second-round pick Brooks Reed adds even more speed to the already stocked pass rushing cabinet of the Texans.  Mario Williams will be asked to move to 3-4 outside linebacker and essentially play the Demarcus Ware role Phillips established in Dallas, a glorified pass rusher.  Plenty athletic to play standing up, Super Mario could be even more effective than he was in the 4-3.

If the Texans can solidify the nose tackle position, DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing round out what could be a fantastic front seven.

The Houston secondary was historically bad last year, and if it could improve to simply a little below average unit this season, it could make all the difference.  Considering the improvements to the pass rush and front seven, there will be less of a burden on the back four.  Adding star cornerback Jonathan Joseph was a huge coup for Houston, and a smarter move than spending twice as much on the other big free agent corner, Nnamdi Asoumgha, a player three years older than Joseph.  Brandon Harris was also drafted to help at the corner spot, and Kareem Jackson is looking to rebound after an abysmal rookie season last year despite being the twentieth overall selection.

Biggest Strengths: Elite offensive firepower in Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson.

Biggest Weaknesses: An unproven secondary.

Adam’s Prediction: 10-6, First in AFC South

Eric’s Prediction: 11-5, Second in AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

Some see last year’s drop from the true NFL elite as a mere aberration that will be forgotten this year as the Indianapolis Colts rise back to the top of the standings.  I tend to see it more as a sign of things to come, though Indy will still be a very good team this year.  Quite simply, the Colts are getting older.  Peyton Manning is having some minor bumps and bruises, and the wear and tear of thirteen NFL seasons has to be getting to him on some level.

Still, Manning’s as good as it gets at his position, and with toys like Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie to play with, the offense should remain one of the league’s best.

The offensive line needed to get better than they were in 2010, and the Colts addressed that major need with two of their top picks in the draft, tackle Anthony Costanzo and guard Ben Ijalana.  Costanzo should come in and be solid right away and add some physicality to a typically finesse Colts line.  Jeff Saturday is a stalwart at center, but he’s 36.  The guards are average.  Ryan Diem is still a solid tackle and could form a sound pair of bookends with Costanzo, but this unit better gel fast if the Colts hope to protect their lotto ticket, #18.

Defensively, the Colts are still all about speed but yet again seem to be chronically undersized.

Dwight Freeney is still a superstar when healthy, and Robert Mathis has quietly averaged 10 sacks per year over the last seven years.  Jerry Hughes, the second-year man from TCU, should ingratiate himself more into the pass rush this season as well.

Coming from Chicago, defensive tackle Tommie Harris brings immense talent, but his health is always in question.  He’s great at shooting the gap and providing penetration but he gets banged up way to much.  Defensive tackles Fili Moala and rookie Drake Nevis need to contribute as big bodies in the middle to help the Colts’ run defense improve, an area where they have historically been soft.

Gary Brackett is an incredibly smart linebacker, but his age and physical limitations are catching up with him.  Compiling 88 tackles as a rookie, former Hawkeye Pat Angerer showed promise last year, and new addition Ernie Sims can help if he’s healthy.

Jeraud Powers is a nice young corner, and the safety tandem of Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea is one of the better duos in the league.

For Indianapolis, the best defense is a good offense, and it all starts with Manning.  If the Colts can get a lead then they can unleash their pass rushers, but in close games teams will be able to pound the ball with the running game, keeping Manning and his offense off the field.

Biggest Strengths: Peyton Manning.

Biggest Weaknesses: The run defense is a huge question mark.

Adam’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC South

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in AFC South

Tennessee Titans

Raise your hand if you have no idea what to make of the Tennessee Titans.  Raise your hand if you have no idea if Matt Hasselbeck is the guy who went crazy against the Saints in last year’s Wild Card game or the guy who tossed 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions during the regular season.  This is a hard team to figure, but if they get Chris Johnson signed, which I expect they will, they could be dangerous for anybody.

Hasselbeck played on a talent-depleted team last year in Seattle, and had nowhere near the running game he will have in Tennessee this year, so we may see an improvement out of him.  But if things go south for the Titans, do expect to see rookie Jake Locker.

Hasselbeck thrives off of play-action, which should be a real threat considering Johnson and Tennessee’s running prowess.  The Titans’ offensive line is one of the best groups in the league, and fullback Amhard Hall is a strong lead blocker.

An emerging star at receiver, Kenny Britt should be Hasselbeck’s go-to guy, and Nate Washington is a good vertical threat on the other side.  Beyond Britt and Washington the receiving corps is pretty thin.

The Titans need last year’s top pick, Derrick Morgan, to bounce back from an injury-ruined rookie campaign and become the pass rusher they expected.  Jason Jones is an undersized yet underrated player at defensive tackle, and the Shaun Smith adds size, if not much, else next to him.

Tackling machine Barrett Rudd was added via free agency, an excellent pick up after the departure of last year’s leading tackler Stephen Tulloch.  Second-round linebacker Akeem Ayers needs to join Morgan in pressuring quarterbacks.

The strength of the defense still lies in the secondary where Cortland Finnegan, Chris Hope, and Michael Griffin are all very good players.

Biggest Strengths: Running game.

Biggest Weaknesses: Uncertainty in the defensive front seven.

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Third in AFC South

Eric’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

Contrary to popular belief, there is still an NFL franchise in Jacksonville.

David Garrard had excellent numbers last year for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he never felt like a guy who could go out and win a game by putting his team on his shoulders.  Even posting a 91 passer rating, Garrard still felt like a game manager.

Maurice Jones-Drew is a superstar back that can do everything, and he’ll need to if Jacksonville wants to score some points.

Beyond Mike Thomas, who is just famous for catching last year’s Hail Mary, the Jaguars have zero wide receivers with any real ability.  Marcedes Lewis really broke out last season and will likely be the top target this year, but whenever the tight end can be double-covered without much concern for other receivers, you have a problem.

After investing a lot of high picks in the offensive line the past few years, that group now looks ready to come together.

The Jags offense seems to be getting everything in place for Blaine Gabbert to take over in a year or two: promising offensive linemen, stud running back, talented tight end, and now they just need to add some receivers.  That made the fact that they let Mike Sims-Walker leave for St. Louis a little puzzling as he was by far their most dangerous wideout.

Though Jacksonville majorly reached for Tyson Alualu in the draft last year, Alualu played excellently as a rookie and forms one of the better tackle tandems in the league alongside fellow youngster Terrance Knighton.  Paul Posluszny was a great signing that should make the Jags very tough up the middle.  Knighton and Alualu will penetrate and occupy blocks while Posluszny gobbles up tackles.

Rashean Mathis is now 30 but is still a good corner in this league.  The problem is, outside of Mathis, Knighton, Alualu, and Posluszny, there isn’t a ton of talent on the defense, and the offense is certainly not going to be expolsive.

Biggest Strengths: Defensive tackles Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton and middle linebacker Paul Posluszny make for an exciting core of the defense.

Biggest Weaknesses: Seriously, google their group of receivers.

Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC South

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC South

--from @AdamHocking

AFC North: 2011 Division Preview

Baltimore Ravens

Does Joe Flacco have another level of play, or has he plateaued?  The answer to that question will determine whether the Baltimore Ravens are a Super Bowl threat or simply a good, playoff-level team.
 

Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, and Lee Evans give Flacco plenty of weapons, and the offensive line is excellent.  Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson will push each other at tight end and provide extra targets in the middle of the field as well.
 

Offseason acquisition Ricky Williams will be a good second back behind Rice, and Vonta Leach was brought in—the best fullback in football—to pave the way for a powerful running attack.
 

Though he gets less credit than Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, both good players who are really getting up there in years, mammoth defensive lineman Haloti Ngata is the best player on the Ravens’ defense.  Former Texan Bernard Pollard, a solid safety, comes in to pair with Reed.
 

Considering Terrell Suggs is a pass rushing monster when healthy, Lewis is an All-Pro in the middle, and Reed plays spectacularly on the back end, even with aging stars the Baltimore defense is still a top-5 unit in the league, but cornerback is a big concern.  First round pick Jimmy Smith has huge talent as a cover man, but he’s a rookie corner; that’s usually a dicey situation.  Chris Carr is decent as is Ladarious Webb, but they don’t have a single lockdown cover guy.
 

Biggest Strengths: Behind a road-grating offensive line and a powerhouse fullback, Ray Rice and Ricky Williams will run rampant over opposing defenses.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Corner.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC North
 

Pittsburgh Steelers
 

Will the defending AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers have a hangover from their Super Bowl loss?  Hard to say, but talent still abounds on this roster.
 

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is unconventional but still a great player, a winner pure and simple as his three Super Bowl appearances and two rings can attest.
 

Mike Wallace is probably the best deep threat in the league, and Jerricho Cotchery and Hines Ward provide good possession targets outside.  In addition, though more of a blocker, tight end Heath Miller, adeptly catches passes too and is a red zone force.
 

Rashard Mendenhall as the feature back has proven to be a talented runner over the past two years, but the offensive line is suspect beyond Maurkice Pouncey.
 

The Pittsburgh defense should again be vicious, spearheaded by their stout front line of Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, and Brett Keisel.  Rookie first rounder Cameron Heyward injects youth and talent into this aging group.
 

The Steelers have the best linebackers in the league with nasty edge rushers James Harrison and Lamar Woodley and the Lawrence Timmons emerging as a star inside.  James Farrior is still a good player but at age 36 has clearly lost a step.
 

Corner is a weak spot on this team, but they can usually make up for it with a heavy dose of pass rush and the flying Troy Polamalu, perhaps the best defensive player in the league when healthy.
 

Biggest Strengths: Their defensive playmakers Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: What they have at cornerback doesn't stack up with the rest of the defense, and the offensive line leaves something to be desired.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, Second in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC North
 

Cleveland Browns
 

This may be the year we find out if Colt McCoy can be a good starting quarterback in the NFL.  He doesn’t have to be a star, but if he can play consistently and not lose his team games, the Cleveland Browns will be competitive.
 

Peyton Hillis is a powerful running back, but there has to be at least a slight concern that last year was a flash in the pan.
 

The Browns have very little in terms of perimeter threats, really any good receiving options.  Featuring Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, and Alex Mack, the offensive line is very good.  They will need to be to give McCoy time to throw as the receivers won’t create much separation.

The defense is largely unproven and riddled with no-name players.  Second-year men Joe Haden and TJ Ward need to make big strides to make the secondary formidable.  The defensive line is a work in progress evidenced by the Brownies spending their first two draft picks on linemen Phil Taylor and Jabal Sheard.
 

Biggest Strengths: The offensive line is one the league’s best and will make life at least a little easier for young Colt McCoy and the bruising Peyton Hillis.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: An overall lack of talent; outside of Joe Thomas, no one on the Browns is top-10 league-wide at his position.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC North
 

Cincinnati Bengals
 

The Cincinnati Bengals are definitely in the running for worst record in the league this year, but the great thing about the NFL is that some team surprises you every year.  Bengals fans can cling to that hope, though I consider their outlook very murky.
 

Carson Palmer looks to be firm in his stance that he will retire if he’s not traded, and the Bengals equally firm in that they will not trade Palmer.  That likely means rookie Andy Dalton will be thrown into the fire as the starter, and though he’s a smart and accurate passer, the NFL is a far cry from Texas Christian University.
 

Cedric Benson has quite a bit of wear on the tires, and though he can be a workhorse back, he’s not going to give you much on anything in terms of explosive plays.
 

AJ Green has superstar potential and he will grow up with Dalton which should form a nice duo in the future, but I wouldn’t expect miracles right away.
 

The offensive line is average at best, and it’s high time for Andre Smith to live up to his status as a top-10 draft pick.
 

Defensively the Bengals have some promising young talent.  Despite character concerns—always a popular theme in Cincinnati—Carlos Dunlap came in last year and finished with 9.5 sacks as a rookie.  Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and new addition Manny Lawson give the Bengals one of the most athletic linebacking units in football, though all three players still have plenty to prove.
 

Losing Jonathan Joseph slices away half of what was one of the best corner back duos in the game.  Joseph’s former partner in crime, Leon Hall, now has to look forward to playing opposite either Nate Clements or Pacman Jones.
 

This is a young team with talent but also an overwhelming amount of inexperience, and that should show throughout the season.
 

Biggest Strengths: Young talent abounds with the likes of Andy Dalton, AJ Green, Carlos Dunlap, Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and Leon Hall.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: The team relies entirely on its unproven/inexperienced NFL players.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC North

--from @AdamHocking

AFC East: 2011 Division Preview

New England Patriots
 

It seems weird to say because the New England Patriots have played at such a high level over the past few years, but this team hasn’t won the Super Bowl in six seasons, and that’s a disappointment.  Even last year, after rolling to a 14-2 record the usually clutch Pats failed to get it done in the playoffs.  It’s high time for Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and company to get back to football’s biggest stage.
 

A stable of talent surrounds the ever all-world Brady: Deion Branch, Wes Welker, second year tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, young guns Brandon Tate and Taylor Price, plus the high profile Chad Ochocinco.  Branch, Welker, Ochocinco, and the tight end duo provide Brady with the great chain-moving, middle-of-the-field targets he covets, while Tate and Price have the speed to stretch defenses vertically.  Brady loves to use multiple targets, and he’ll have as many weapons as ever heading into 2011.
 

Finally getting a long-term deal done with top flight guard Logan Mankins solidifies an offensive line that already boasts excellent players Matt Light, Dan Koppen, and Stephen Neal as well as up-and-comers Sebastian Vollmer and rookie Nate Solder.  Deep and talented, New England’s offensive line will more than ably give Brady time to pick apart defenses.
 

Running back-by-committee will again be the strategy this year in New England.  The committee will just be a bit larger with rookies Shane Vareen and Stevan Ridley joining the stable of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Kevin Faulk.
 

On defense the Pats may finally be turning into the perfect blend of youth and experience.  Old pros on the defensive line Shaun Ellis and Vince Wilfork join young studs Jerod Mayo, Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Cunninghanm, Gary Guyton, and Brandon Spikes to form a front seven with both savvy and speed.
 

Adding Albert Haynesworth is low-risk/high-reward since they gave up virtually nothing to acquire the moody big man.  If he flops, the damage is minimal.  I like how New England uses countless alignments, so I expect they will find a way to maximize Fat Albert.
 

Pat Chung and Brandon Meriweather form one of the best young safety duos in football, both capable of ball hawking and making open field tackles.  With the first pick of the second round the Pats drafted physical corner Ras-I Dowling, who could make an impact at one of the Pats few weak points.  Dowling, Darius Butler, and Devin McCourty have a chance to make up a really nice trio of cover men.
 

If the Pats can generate more pass rush between the addition of Haynesworth and the growth of Cunningham and Dunlap, they could again be a dominant defense.  Add in an offense with an versatile array of backs and pass catchers, and you can see why this is Hill 364’s consensus pick for AFC Champion.
 

Biggest Strengths: The men at the top, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: New England must improve its pass rush, and though they’ve made it work in the past, an offense without a true feature back puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in AFC East
 

New York Jets
 

Rex Ryan’s bunch may have spent too much time drooling over Nhamdi Asoumgha and not enough time working to plug other holes on their roster.  Losing out on Asoughma in the end, the New York Jets did little to improve a team that has been on the cusp of the Super Bowl two years running.
 

If Mark Sanchez doesn’t take a quantum leap this year and become a top-10 passer in the league, this offense could really struggle considering all it lost.  Gone are the jack-of-all-trades Brad Smith, now with division rival Buffalo; the talented Braylon Edwards, who now calls San Francisco home; and Jerricho Cotchery, who went to Pittsburgh.  Picking up Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason may seem like nice moves on paper, but 32- and 37-year-old receivers usually don’t tip a team over the Super Bowl precipice.
 

Shonn Greene has big time ability at running back, but he may have to become a superstar overnight for this offense to really produce.  LaDanian Tomlinson had a nice resurgence last year, but the 32-year-old running back faded fast down the stretch.  How much does he have left in those legs for this season?
 

All-Pros D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold make up an excellent core of an offensive line, and Brandon Moore is a sound player at guard.  Right tackle and the other guard spot are less solid, but the overall unit is very good.
 

Although the Jets are famous for their blitzing defensive style, they don’t have any great, singular pass rushers.  Probably their best pure rusher, Calvin Pace had just 5.5 sacks in twelve games last year.  Nose tackle Kris Jenkins has retired after multiple knee injuries, and now their defensive line is populated by rookies and unspectacular veterans.  The strength of the front comes in the form of linebackers Bart Scott, who is aging, and David Harris, yet neither is much of a sack artist.
 

What make the Jets defense go are their cornerbacks, where Darelle Revis is the best in the business when healthy.  Opposite Revis the Jets re-signed Antonio Cromartie, who is great in man-to-man coverage but struggles making tackles and takes too many risks.  Last year’s first-round pick Kyle Wilson should push for more time on the field as a nickel and sometimes starting corner this year.
 

Ultimately, the season is going to ride on Sanchez’ development, because a lot of weapons walked out the door and the defense didn’t land the big prize it was hoping to.  After reaching back-to-back AFC Championship Games, this team seems poised to take at least a small step back.
 

Biggest Strengths: Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie may be the best cornerback duo in football, and the offensive line is among the league's elite as well.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Lack of weapons on offense, and lack of talent in the front seven.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC East
 

Miami Dolphins
 

Everyone seems to despise the Miami Dolphins’ Chad Henne, and I’m not here to sing his praises, but he’s produced at about the same level as Mark Sanchez without as much talent around him.  Last year Sanchez posted a 75.3 passer rating, Henne a 75.4, but the media is a powerful tool and has made a star of Sanchez before he’s actually become one.  Of course I realize Henne’s teams have been hovering around .500 and Sanchez has been to two-straight AFC Title Games, but in terms of quarterback production alone, the difference is pretty minimal.
 

Unfortunately for Henne, both members of a formerly dynamic backfield—Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams—have left town, and now it looks as though scatback Reggie Bush will be asked to be a feature back, something everyone but Reggie Bush seems to know he’s not capable of.
 

With the running game in trouble, even more pressure will be heaped on Henne, especially with the Dolphin fan-base up in arms that management balked on a potential trade for veteran signal caller Kyle Orton.
 

On the bright side, Henne will have superstar Brandon Marshall to throw to, and I would imagine Marshall will see more targets than just about any other receiver in the league.  Anthony Fasano is a reliable pass-catching tight end but not the type of player that defenses really have to gameplan for.

Jake Long is one of the best left tackles in the game, Vernon Carey is solid at guard, and if Mike Pouncey is anything like his brother, the Dolphins should be set at center, but there are still holes along the offensive line.
 

Miami really only has one guy, Marshall, that is going to scare defenses, and any defense can take away one guy.  A lot is going to fall on Henne and Bush, and I don’t believe they are ready to carry the load.
 

Miami is still searching for the right mix of players to lock down its defensive line.  Last year’s first-round pick, Jared Odrick, needs to develop into an impact player before things can come together.   A huge nose tackle, Paul Soliai moves pretty well but doesn’t make enough plays given his size, strength, and athletic ability.
 

Karlos Dansby is a very good linebacker still in his prime at age 29.  Solid tackler Kevin Burnett, who made 95 tackles for the Chargers last year, flanks Dansby, as does sack master Cameron Wake, who came out of nowhere in 2010 to tally 14 quarterback takedowns.  If young linebacker Koa Misi can take a step in his development, add in the return of Jason Taylor as a situational pass rusher and the Dolphins could boast one of the better linebacking groups in football.
 

Vontae Davis has as much athletic ability as anyone and showed it in flashes last year.  If Davis puts it all together—both the mental and the physical aspects of the game—he can be a star cover man.  Opposite Davis is the young Sean Smith, who at 6’3” and 214 pounds has safety size and corner speed.  This could be a very good duo moving forward.  Though aging, safety Yeremiah Bell is very good in run support, tallying over 100 tackles last year.
 

The Miami defense has the pieces to be a top-10 unit, but getting there will depend on young players stepping into leadership roles.  However, the defense will have to be great to provide this team with a shot at the playoffs because offensively it’s pretty much Henne and Marshall vs. the world.
 

Biggest Strengths: Brandon Marshall is an elite wideout, talent abounds in the linebacking corps, and they have a promising young corner duo.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Beyond Marshall, Miami lacks offensive weapons, and the defensive line is a work in progress.
 

Adam’s Predicition: 5-11, Third in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC East
 

Buffalo Bills
 

Yikes.  What else is there to say about a Buffalo Bills team that won just four games last year then in the offseason proceeded to lose their best linebacker (Paul Posluszny) a very good safety (Donte Whitner) and their second-best wide receiver (Lee Evans)?
 

Ryan Fitzpatrick will completely underwhelm you with physical ability, but he is accurate, smart, and he can get the ball out of his hands, which is more to be said than of many other quarterbacks.  He won’t lose games for Buffalo; he just won’t take them over either.
 

CJ Spiller needs to take more carries away from feature back Fred Jackson to make more of a balanced rushing attack, combining Jackson’s power and Spiller’s electric speed.
 

Stevie Johnson proved to be a rising star at receiver a year ago, but he is the lone threat in the receiving corps.
 

Also, the offensive line—for what seems like the fifth year in a row—is under serious reconstruction.
 

Offensively they may be good for a few exciting plays, but they don’t have the consistency up front or the array of weapons to sustain drives and put up points game in and game out.
 

This offseason Buffalo made two strong moves defensively: cutting ties with abject failure Aaron Maybin and drafting nasty defensive lineman Marcel Dareus with the third overall pick.
 

Pairing at defensive tackle, Dareus and Kyle Williams (a Pro Bowl alternate last year) should prove to be the strength of the team, which makes cutting ties with Posluszny and Whitner all the more puzzling.  Having Dareus and Williams anchor the middle of the line, then Posluszny at middle linebacker and Whitner at strong safety would have made the Bills downright formidable against the run, but they chose to let those two high quality players walk.
 

Ex-Packer Nick Barnett will recognize the cold weather in Buffalo, but he won’t be used to all the losing.  He should nicely fill in for Posluszny, but Barnett is five years older and not near the same level of athlete at this point, especially coming off an injury.  Barnett may well be the best the Bills linebacking group has to offer, having Shawne Merriman’s career evaporated before our eyes.
 

Terrence McGee, Leodis McKelvin, and Jarius Byrd make up a very good secondary, certainly the most proven unit on the team, but it certainly won’t be enough to make up for the Bills numerous other deficiencies.
 

This team doesn’t have the weapons, experience, or depth to come anywhere close to tasting playoff glory.
 

Biggest Strengths: The defensive tackle tandem and secondary are the Bills’ lone bright spots.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: They lack an offensive line, receiving options, and linebackers.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 5-11, Fourth in AFC East
 

--from @AdamHocking