Maybe Not Show Time, but Mike Brown Can Win

Judging from my recent trip to Los Angeles, the locals out there demand a lot from their beloved Lakers.  I needed no further evidence of this then when our cab driver told me that both Dwight Howard and Chris Paul were assuredly headed to the City of Angels next season.  A nice thought, but then, so are many delusions.

With the hire of former Cleveland Cavaliers coach Mike Brown, I can only imagine what backlash Angelinos are expressing today.  It’s not exactly a sexy hire, and Laker supporters are perhaps the greediest, most expectant fan-base in professional sports.  Presumably the LA faithful had their eyes set on Larry Brown, or thought perhaps they could lure Gregg Popovich to the coast, or bring Red Auerbach back from beyond the grave.

But just because LA fans aren’t getting exactly what they want, that doesn’t mean they aren’t getting what they need.  Laker fans in many ways reflect the team’s effort this past season: entitled, arrogant, and believing that championships are a birth right and not something to be earned.  As a displaced Laker fan in Wisconsin, perhaps I can lend a drop of objectivity to the Brown debate.

First, Brown learned under Gregg Popovich (4 titles) and Rick Carlisle (currently doing a masterful job with the Mavericks).  He took LeBron James and a pile of dirt to back-to-back 60-win seasons.  Even when Zydrunas Illgauskas was the Cavs’ second leading scorer, they still won 47 games.  Now, you can attribute that success to James, but bear in mind that Miami Coach Erick Spoelstra led the ultra-talented Heat to just 58 wins this season.

Brown’s .663 winning percentage over five seasons ranks fifth in NBA history.  Only once did Brown fail to reach 50 wins, and the second best player during his tenure as coach was probably Mo Williams, who would barely be a starter on half the teams in the league.

Each year under Brown Cleveland was one of the top-2 defensive teams.  That was their formula: lockdown defense, crash the boards, and give the ball to LeBron.  Well, if Brown can transfer that style to Hollywood, it could be an even better fit.  Lock down defense, crash the boards, and then hand the ball to Kobe Bryant, to Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom.

While Brown is certainly not Phil Jackson—and I don’t intend to disparage the Zen Master at all—perhaps a new voice is needed to motivate the veteran Lakers.  In this past season Jackson’s hands-off approach during games seemed to trickle down into a passive, too-cool-for-school mentality from his players.

Jackson also was never huge on X’s and O’s; he was always more of a manager of personalities, of the spirit of the team.  His mastery was in making Michael Jordan co-exist with Scottie Pippen and Kobe Bryant with Shaquille O’Neal.  Brown is much more hands-on, more into the nuts and bolts of a gameplan, and with a roster that can no longer win games on pure talent, perhaps that’s a good thing.

Brown will manage games, harp on execution, and demand rebounding and defense.  He won’t be lighting sage in the locker room and handing out books on Buddhism to his players, but maybe that’s not what LA needs right now.

The final question is: Can Brown get the established and multiple-time champion Laker players, especially Kobe, to really listen and buy into what he preaches?  I believe he can, based on his success in Cleveland, his handling of the megastar James, and a good deal of postseason experience.  Plus, at some point Kobe can’t call the shots anymore.  Yes he’s still a top 5-7 player in the league, but at age 32 he should not determine front office moves or the future of the franchise.

Not an overbearing presence, Brown won’t scream at players or get ejected from games.  What he will do is demand good execution, excellent defense, and disciplined basketball.   With all the talent still remaining on the Lakers’ roster, if they buy in, the results might be on par with what Laker fans expect: another championship.

--from Adam

The Los Angeles Lakers' Swift Demise

I can't watch.

Laker fans know the nationwide acrimony for their purple and gold heroes, well aware that LA “gets every call” and “complains way too much” and “acts entitled on the court.”  So Laker fans are more than prepared for the jubilation that accompanies an embarrassing Laker playoff exit like this year’s, at the hands of the long-time also ran Dallas Mavericks.

Laker haters are probably wondering how this feels to Laker fans, to finally have the shoe on the other foot.  Truthfully, it’s not all that surprising.  Sure, Laker fans have a certain assumptive air to them, but that comes with LA’s perennial success.  However, when you look at how the Lakers achieved so much, you see why this fall to Dallas isn’t exactly shocking.

Over the past four years the Lakers have indeed played entitled for long stretches: lazy, indifferent, selfish, and flawed all in maddening fashion.  But they always found a way to overcome their own gluttony, to survive and advance.

Yet this year, something was different.

Jason Kidd - Shot Blocker Extraordinaire

The first barrage of criticism will land at Kobe Bryant’s feet.  It has to; he’s the leader of this team.  The argument that Kobe has simply gotten too old will surely be a popular one batted around sports media over the next few weeks.  Yet Bryant still averaged an elite 25 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds per game over the regular season, and saw just a slight dip in that production in the playoffs (23, 3, and 3).  Those are still the numbers of a man who can lead a championship team.

Pau Gasol will also get heaps of blame, and perhaps a good portion of it is deserved.  His regular season numbers dipped from 18 points and 10 rebounds to around 13 and 8 in the playoffs, and he couldn’t guard Dirk Nowitzki to save his life.  He wasn’t good against the Mavericks, but talk of trading him away because of a single bad stretch of games is nonsense.  Still in his prime at just 30 years old, he’s already helped Los Angeles claim two NBA titles.

The real culprit for LA’s downfall was their puny bench production.  Every game of the series Dallas found big-time punch off their bench, while the Lakers’ reserves could hardly muster a jab.

Another reason for the quick dismissal of LA was what everyone said would be the Lakers’ advantage in this series, their size.  Instead of imposing and dominant, the Lakers looked clumsy and slow.  They got dominated by the penetration of the quicker Mavericks guards, who time after time waltzed through the lane and found wide open shooters at the three point line.

The bottom line really is, the Mavericks played team basketball for every minute of this series, whereas the Lakers relied on individual play.  The Mavs were coolly efficient.  The Lakers looked clunky and disorganized.

A Cloudy Future for the Purple and Gold

How can the Lakers retool and keep their championship window open?  It won’t be easy.  LA has no money to spend on the open market with long term contracts committed to Bryant, Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, and Ron Artest.  Even the contracts of Steve Blake and Luke Walton won’t be easy to move.  And of course, there’s the departure of the greatest coach of all time, Phil Jackson.

Making trades seems to be LA’s only way to really revamp their roster.  The rumor of the day is that Bynum will get dealt for Superman Dwight Howard, but that would require a huge leap of faith on the Magic’s part.  Orlando would have to be fairly certain Bynum can hold up long-term, and I’m not sure what would give them that indication.  Perhaps adding Odom could sweeten the deal, but we’ll still have to wait and see on those proceedings.

Even if LA acquired Howard, they’d still have the enormous hole at point guard that was exposed all year long.  Derek Fisher may walk out the door with Jackson, and even if he doesn’t, Fisher lacks the quickness, distribution skills, and penetration ability to remain a starting NBA point guard.

The Lakers also need to get more athletic in general.  Artest really has no foot speed left and is more of a bruiser than a true one-on-one defender at this point in his career.  One thing that did show in Bryant’s play this year is that he needs an athletic wing defender on his team so that he isn’t dually stressed scoring on one end and defending a great player on the other.  Plus, the Lakers’ most athletic player, Shannon Brown, is likely headed out the door in free agency.

The ideal situation for LA would be to acquire Howard and somehow shed the salaries of Artest, Walton, and Odom.  That seems like a bit of a pipe dream though given that Howard may be much harder to pry from the Magic than people think, and long term salaries of aging players like Odom, Artest, and Walton aren’t exactly hot commodities on the open market.

If LA is stuck with virtually the same team heading into next year—Gasol, Bryant, Odom, Artest, and Bynum—they won’t be a championship contender.  That’s not because those five guys aren’t good enough, but because they no longer fit together well enough to make up for their lack of a point guard and perimeter athleticism.  With the likes Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Kevin Durant romping around the league, LA has to find a way to get quicker, faster, and younger.  Gasol and Kobe are still fine championship pillars, but the rest of the pieces on this team need to move if the Lakers are to once again sit atop the mountain.

--from Adam

(images from espn.com)

2011 NBA Playoffs: Second Round Picks

#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks

It’s time to get over the fact that Atlanta actually won a series.  They’re here, and they have a shot at giving Chicago a run for their money.  Carlos Boozer is a good player, but he’s always going to be undersized at the power forward position and struggled against the bigger Pacers in the first round.  Zaza Pachulia and Jason Collins aren’t great talents, but they are serviceable 7-footers that will clog the lane, snatch rebounds, and make life difficult for Boozer and Joakim Noah.  Add in the talented combo of Al Horford and mega athlete Josh Smith, and the Hawks have an imposing four man post rotation.  Derrick Rose is going to be the best player in the series, but Hawks guard Kirk Hinrich used to share the backcourt with Rose and is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, so he could have a favorable matchup.  Marvin Williams has underachieved, but he is a very good athletic match with Bulls swingman Luol Deng.  Jamal Crawford is going to be the x-factor for this whole series.  Capable of averaging 25 points over the course of a series, he will shoot from anywhere on the floor.  Crawford, Joe Johnson, Smith, and Horford is probably a more talented scoring group then Rose, Deng, Boozer, and Noah.  Atlanta also has more playoff experience than the younger Bulls.  As you can see, the matchups are really in Atlanta’s favor, and overall the Hawks might be the more talented team.  Where Atlanta has always struggled is giving effort each night and committing on the defensive end.  The Bulls never waver on defense or effort, so even if their offense disappears, they still stay in games.  Chicago got a wake up call from the scrappy Pacers, and though the Hawks are a more talented foe than Indiana, Chicago’s focus, style, and coaching will be enough to guide them to the East Finals.

Prediction: Bulls in 7

#2 Miami Heat vs. #3 Boston Celtics

Throughout the regular season Boston maintained a mental edge over Miami, but now they don’t have their most imposing figure, Kendrick Perkins.  And after blowing out Boston in their last meeting, Miami certainly gained some confidence.  Still, Rajon Rondo is going to dominate the point guard battle with Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers.  Paul Pierce and Ray Allen won’t match the production of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, but if they can come close, that will be enough.  Kevin Garnett and Chris Bosh should cancel each other out; both are thin framed, jump shooting bigs.  Even minus Perkins, Boston has the edge inside with Glen Davis, Jeff Green, Jermaine O’Neal, Nenad Kristic, and Garnett.  That collection of forwards should thoroughly outplay Zydrunas Illgauskas, Bosh, Juwan Howard, and Joel Anthony.  With the point guard and pivot play favoring Boston, James and Wade will have to seriously dominate Pierce and Allen, and with the way Boston defends, I don’t think they will.  Boston will win the rebounding battle and thus be able to turn this into a half court series.  Neither team is great in the half court, but I trust Boston to execute better, especially in the clutch.  If James and Wade are jump shooters all series, the Heat can’t win.

Prediction: Boston in 6

#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #3 Dallas Mavericks

Considering the perennial success of both these teams, it comes as a surprise that Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki have never faced each other in a playoff series.  Dallas proved their worth by beating a tough Portland team in round one, and while LA started slowly, they easily rolled over an undermanned Hornets squad.  In terms of matchups, Dallas just isn’t constructed to give the Lakers issues.  What traditionally confounds LA are a quick, penetrating point guard and size to battle the Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom trio. Jason Kidd is not exactly that dynamic point guard, and Jason Terry, who provides scoring off the bench, doesn’t get in the lane.  Rodrigue Beaubois, the one player for Dallas that might be able to cause problems with his speed, has been out all postseason with a foot injury.  The Mavs also don’t really have a guy capable of making Bryant uncomfortable.  Shawn Marion’s best days are certainly behind him, and he’s a liability on offense.  Conversely, Peja Stojakovic couldn’t guard a statue, though he provides three point shooting.  DeShawn Stevenson doesn’t play very much but could guard Kobe when he sees the floor.  The problem there is that Stevenson isn’t a smart defender.  He tends to go for head fakes, overplay his man, and commit silly fouls.  Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler, especially Chandler, provide adequate length, shot blocking, and rebounding to battle with Gasol, Bynum, and Odom, but they won’t score much at all.  Gasol, Odom, Ron Artest, and Matt Barnes off the bench can all bring a different element guarding Nowitzki; he will have to work for his points.  Basically, Dallas has nobody to stop Bryant, and LA has multiple guys capable of frustrating Nowitzki.  Add to that the Lakers’ skill inside and quality depth, and this should be a one-sided series.

Prediction: Lakers in 5

#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies

It’s just a bad joke that the Thunder is a 4 seed.  They are on par with the Lakers, Heat, Bulls, and Celtics as championship favorites, and I expect them to prove their excellence again against Memphis.  Don’t get me wrong, Memphis can play, and they’ll make life hard for OKC, but the Thunder just have more guns to fire than the Grizzlies do.  Zach Randolph is a tremendous player, but he’s the third best player in this series behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  Additionally, Randolph will have his work cut out, posting against the best one-on-one pivot defender in the NBA, Kendrick Perkins.  Add the shot blocking of Serge Ibaka, the length of Nazr Mohammed, and the size/energy of Nick Collison, and the Thunder will have plenty of options to throw at Randolph and Marc Gasol.  In the half-court though, Memphis will have some advantages.  The Thunder have no post player capable of providing reliable scoring, whereas Randolph is as efficient as it gets on the low block, and Gasol is a pretty adept offensive player that shoots at a great percentage.  Durant may find operating in the half-court difficult as well with the tremendous defender, Shane Battier, shadowing him for most of the game.  Strong and athletic swing-man Sam Young may also cover Durant adequately.  Westbrook is impossible to stay in front of, but Mike Conley, OJ Mayo, and Tony Allen is as good a group as possible for trying to slow him down.  I think both defenses in this series will control the game, but ultimately Durant and Westbrook will have a little easier time against their defenders than Randolph and Gasol will have against the vicious combo of Perkins and Ibaka.  Mayo and Conley have to score well in this series to support Randolph and to give the Grizzlies any chance.  On the other hand, Durant and Westbrook are assured of scoring, and if James Harden can up his level of play, this could be a quick series.

Prediction: Thunder in 6
 

--from Adam

2011 NBA Playoffs: First Round Recap

Chicago Bulls over Indiana Pacers in 5

Three of the Pacers’ four losses in this series came by 5, 6, and 4 points respectively, in other words, three defeats by 15 total points.  Indiana was the better team for long stretches of this series, but Derrick Rose took over at the end of every game, and he was the difference.  Going forward, if you’re a Bulls fan, you worry that Rose needs more help on the offensive end.  At times during this past series, he looked like the only Bull with confidence shooting the ball.  Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng must produce more consistently.  The Pacers can take a lot of positives from this experience.  They really could have sent this series to 7 games, Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert looked like good NBA starters, Danny Granger played like he’s capable of being a leader on a playoff team, and Tyler Hansbrough had some terrific stretches.  In the end, Rose was the best player in the series, and he was the narrow difference in nearly every game.

Miami Heat over Philadelphia 76ers in 5

There really wasn’t much to this series.  Most games were relatively close, save for one Heat blowout in Game 2, and Philly stole one game while they were at home.  In the end though, the Sixers didn’t have a single player as good as any of the Heat’s top-3 guys.  Now we’ll see if Boston’s decline—precipitated by trading Kendrick Perkins—has brought them down enough to the Heat’s level.

Boston Celtics sweep New York Knicks in 4

The Knicks should have won Game 1, and if they could’ve figured out how to foul, could have won Game 2.  After those two back-breaking loses the series was pretty much over, especially with various injuries suffered by Chauncey Billups and Amare Stoudemire.  Carmelo Anthony was great, averaging 26, 10, and 5.  He did everything he could, but against a superior opponent, it wasn’t enough.  Still, you see why New York gave up so much for Anthony: he can dominate the 4th quarter of playoff games and is always a clutch shot maker.  The Knicks will retool around their big three with a better supporting cast and could be a championship contender next year.

Atlanta Hawks over Orlando Magic in 6

I’m shocked by this result only because I thought the Hawks had mentally checked out earlier in the season.  Certainly Atlanta has talent to play with nearly any team; Jamal Crawford, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Al Horford is about as good a foursome as exists in the league.  In the past however, Atlanta has been consistently inconsistent and just hasn’t played smart basketball.  I thought that Dwight Howard would be enough for the Magic to win this series, but I didn’t expect his teammates to absolutely disappear.  Even averaging 27 points and 16 rebounds a game wasn’t enough from Howard to overcome the suddenly streaking Hawks.

Los Angeles Lakers over New Orleans Hornets in 6

It was harder than anyone predicted, but the champs survive and advance.  We’ve seen LA struggle against scrappy, quick, and feisty teams before like the 2009 Rockets and last year’s Thunder.  Generally a quick, talented point guard spells trouble for the Lakers, which is what the Hornets have in Chris Paul.  What was different about this matchup was that the smaller post players of New Orleans gave LA fits, Carl Landry was able to drive around Pau Gasol anytime he wanted, Aaron Gray’s big body was vital to the Hornets’ success, and Emeka Okafor was solid.  Gasol and Lamar Odom were terrible for much of this series, but Derek Fisher and Ron Artest stepped up their scoring big-time.  Kobe Bryant produced well enough, but just like last year’s first round against the Thunder, he looked to be playing his way into a playoff rhythm.  The Hornets have to be pleased with their level of play, considering that they have one star and a collection of role players.  Besides Paul, New Orleans may not have a player who would start on any of the elite teams in the league.  Trevor Ariza proved he could be a reliable scoring option, maybe a third scorer on a championship level team.  Chris Paul was flat-out unbelievable, single-handedly winning games in this series, getting in the lane at will, and seemingly always making the correct decisions.  The Lakers tried to guard him with Bryant, Steve Blake, Fisher, Shannon Brown, and even Artest; nothing worked.  Paul’s stats for the series were immaculate–22 points, 11 assists, and 7 rebounds.

Dallas Mavericks over Portland Trail Blazers in 6

Looks like all those (including myself) who thought Portland would be too tough for Dallas were dead wrong.  Even when the series was tied at two games apiece, the Mavs always seemed in control.  Tyson Chandler proved to be enough of a force in the lane to allow Dirk Nowitzki to do his thing—27 points and 8 rebounds per game.  Dallas shared the ball, shot well, and played solid defense.  They were just the more seasoned, ready team in this series.  Next comes a huge challenge against the Lakers.

Oklahoma City Thunder over Denver Nuggets in 5

Is it possible to lose a series in 5 games and prove that you are a really good team?  If so, both the Pacers and the Nuggets did just that.  Three of Denver’s losses came by a combined 10 points, but in the end, their downfall was what many thought it would be.  Denver did not have a single player that could close down a game, a guy that can create something out of nothing, and everyone on the team knows, “this is our guy.”  The Thunder has two of those types of guys in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and that was the slim difference in the series.

The Memphis Grizzlies lead the San Antonio Spurs 3-2; look for a recap after the series wraps.

--from Adam

2011 NBA Playoffs: First Round Picks

#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers

Indiana doesn’t even have what you would call a "puncher's chance" in this series.  The Pacers don’t do anything exceedingly well, and they don’t have major star power to carry them through tough stretches.  A lack of experience is the only knock on the Bulls, but at least they made the playoffs last year, and new Bull Carlos Boozer brings a fair share of postseason familiarity as well.  Most of Indiana’s roster has never even appeared in a playoff game.  While the Pacers are a young and athletic team with some decent talent—Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, Darren Collison—those players aren’t household names for a reason.  I look for Chicago to clamp down defensively and make quick work of the over-matched Pacers.

Prediction: Bulls in 4

#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers and Heat play a similar brand of basketball: up-tempo, transition-oriented, lots of athletes on the floor.  You can look at those similarities in one of two ways.  Playing a similar style means either the 76ers will matchup well against Miami, or it will play right into the Heat’s hands.  I tend to think that when two teams play the same style, the better team is obviously more adept at that particular style.  The Heat are clearly more talented than the 76ers, and letting LeBron James and Dwyane Wade out in transition is deadly for any opponent.  The 76ers are in a conundrum because they won’t be able to score in a half-court game, and if they try to speed the pace up, Miami might run them off the floor.  Philly just doesn’t have the type of personnel that can give the Heat problems.  Elton Brand is a decent low post scorer, but at only 6’8” and getting on in years, he won’t be too much of a handful for Chris Bosh, Joel Anthony, or Zydrunas Ilgauskas.  Outside of Brand, the 76ers have virtually no one capable of punishing the Heat where they’re weak, in the post.  Andre Iguodala is a great athlete, but he doesn’t have a jumper or a mid-range game.  Ditto for Thaddeus Young.  I think Philly might squeak one game out in this series because they will have the athletes to guard James and Wade.  Ultimately though, they just won’t have enough scoring punch to keep up with the James gang.

Prediction: Heat in 5

#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks

This is definitely the East’s most intriguing first round matchup, if only for the cumulative star power of both teams.  Boston’s newfound weakness in the post has been well documented, but the Knicks don’t really have the personnel to exploit it.  Sure Amare Stoudemire is a great player, but he’s a finesse guy who doesn’t rebound or defend particularly well.  Outside of Stoudemire, the Knicks have been throwing out Shelden Williams, Shawne Williams, and Ronnie Turiaf to fill the pivot positions.  Combined those three players average just 14 points and 10 rebounds per game.  Even Boston will be able to pound this team in the paint.  Chauncey Billups will make his share of big shots, but he won’t be able to defend the much quicker Rajon Rondo.  Carmelo Anthony will score, but Boston will make him take a lot of shots to get his points.  Ray Allen and Paul Pierce will more than offset the production of Anthony, Kevin Garnett should be able to check Stoudemire, and Rondo will outduel Billups.  Basically, the big four of Boston will at least match the Knicks' big three, and the Celtics' superior depth will take care of the rest.  New York has talent to be sure and could rob a game or two from Boston, but they just aren’t a complete enough team to win this series.

Prediction: Celtics in 6

#4 Orlando Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks

I don’t have a whole lot of love for either one of these teams, but Orlando should be favored in this matchup.  The Hawks have five good players—Joe Johnson, Al Horford, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, and Marvin Williams—but not a single great one.  Johnson is a star in name only; he wasn’t able to lead this Hawks squad to anything more than mediocrity all year.  While Horford is solid, he is going to be completely overmatched by Dwight Howard.  Howard will be the best player in this series by a mile, and his teammates are good enough to provide ample scoring support.  Horford and Josh Smith won’t be able to score inside, meaning Atlanta will have to rely increasingly on the three point shot.  Howard will control the boards and challenge every shot in the paint.  The Hawks also will suffer because they have essentially zero home court advantage.  This year it wasn’t uncommon for fans of the Lakers, Celtics, Magic or Heat to outnumber Hawks fans in Atlanta’s arena.  The Hawks may steal a game or two if Howard gets in foul trouble or if they get hot from the three point line.  In the end though, Howard is the best player in this series, and that will be the difference.

Prediction: Magic in 6

#1 San Antonio Spurs vs #8 Memphis Grizzlies

Losing All Star Rudy Gay for the season was the death blow for any big dreams the Grizzlies had.  Gay and Zach Randolph made for a dynamic forward duo that could score with anyone.  Now Randolph will have to shoulder most of the load, as the Grizzlies next highest scorer is point guard Mike Conley, who nets just 14 points per game.  OJ Mayo is a confounding player; he averaged 18 points per game through his first two seasons, but only 11 this year.  He needs to step up if Memphis wants to do anything.  The Spurs rested their veterans a ton down the stretch and still secured the number one seed out West.  They might not be as sharp as they would like, but they’ll be healthy and can play their way into a rhythm against the inferior Grizzlies.  Tim Duncan will see more minutes in the playoffs, although Marc Gasol will be a big body to compete with.  Tony Parker easily wins the point guard matchup against Conley.  Manu Ginobli has moved from his familiar sixth man role in previous years to the starting lineup this season and excelled.  He’s always big come playoff time, though his sprained elbow has him listed as doubtful for Game One.  He should be back at least by Game Three, and playing at home for the first two contests of the series the Spurs should be fine without him.  San Antonio has five guys that score in double figures—Duncan, Parker, Ginoblie, Richard Jefferson, and George Hill—and five more guys that play a significant role—DeJaun Blair, Tiago Splitter, Gary Neal, Matt Bonner, and Antonio McDyess.  The Grizzlies have similar depth but not nearly as much talent or experience.  Finally, Spurs' coach, Gregg Popovich, is as good as it gets in the NBA.  I can’t see the newbie Grizzlies taking even one game from the finely tuned Spurs.

Prediction: Spurs in 4

#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets

As a Laker fan, this was exactly the matchup I was hoping for in the first round.  Even if Andrew Bynum needed some extra rest, the Lakers could cruise through this series without him.  The Hornets' second best player, David West, recently went down for the year with an ACL tear.  West was their leading scorer, now Chris Paul, who averaged just 16 points per game during the year, takes that mantle.  Usually really talented point guards give the Lakers fits, but Paul hasn’t been fully healthy all year, and even if he goes crazy, he won’t have enough help to make this a series.  After Paul, the Hornets don’t have any one that scores more than 12 points per game.  That’s not going to get it done against the potent Lake Show.  Also, size is going to be a huge factor in this series.  The 6’9” Carl Landry and Emeka Okafor at 6’10” are the Hornets' starting big men.  They will be completely over-matched by the Lakers' pair of 7-footers in Pau Gasol and Bynum.  Throw in the versatile 6’10” Lamar Odom, and LA should absolutely dominate the paint.  We saw all year that the Lakers were the best team in the league if they were focused.  They’ll be focused for the playoffs and I think they’ll steamroll New Orleans.  And after all this I still haven't mentioned that the Lakers happen to have a guy named Kobe Bryant.

Prediction: Lakers in 4

#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trailblazers

All week I’ve been itching to see if this matchup would occur, and it has.  So many prognosticators have said that Portland has a really good shot to upset Dallas, and I agree.  Dallas and Portland split their four meetings during the year, however Dallas won twice when they had Caron Butler and the Blazers didn’t have newly acquired Gerald Wallace.  Since Butler went down and Wallace came aboard for Portland, the Blazers have beaten Dallas twice.  The thing that is so drastically different about the playoffs is that over the course of a seven-game series, teams are able to make adjustments and take away their opponents’ biggest strengths.  Teams have time to focus on just one opponent and really hone in on how to best approach that matchup.  Dallas has always thrived in the regular season because in one-game situations; they are good enough to outscore a lot of teams.  All this is a way of saying I think Portland has the personnel to really limit Dirk Nowitzki over the course of a series.  Having multiple long and athletic players to throw at Dirk is always important, and that’s exactly what the Blazers have.  Wallace, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Marcus Camby all bring different elements to the table, and all are capable of guarding Nowitzki.  They also have a great coach in Nate McMillan, who will have a sound gameplan in place.  If Nowitzki is limited or has to work a ton to get his points, Dallas will struggle.  The Mavs second leading scorer is aging sixth man Jason Terry, who is a streak shooter you can’t always rely on.  Beyond Terry and Dirk, ancient Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, and Peja Stojakovic join youngsters Rodrigue Beaubois and JJ Barea as the Mavs' main supporting players.  All those role players are either too limited by age or inexperience to be big factors in this series.  Another way of saying that is, Dirk Nowitzki might be the best player in this series, but Portland has the next three or four best players in LaMarcus Aldridge, Gerald Wallace, Wes Matthews, and Andre Miller.  Portland is much more athletic than Dallas on the wings with Wallace, Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and Rudy Fernandez matching up against Marion, Stojakovic and DeShawn Stevenson.  Inside, Aldridge, Wallace, and Camby will battle Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler, and Brendan Haywood to about an even draw.  Miller is certainly an old dog in this game, but he’ll be matched up with an even grayer beard in Kidd and should win that matchup all series.  Ultimately the superior athleticism, depth, and favorable matchups lead to Portland's upset of the playoff soft Mavericks.

Prediction: Trail Blazers in 6

#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Denver Nuggets

There’s no question that Denver became a better team after trading Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups.  The Nuggets are now deep, young, athletic, and unselfish.  Looking at the matchups in this series is really interesting.  Kendrick Perkins and Nene both are big-bodied players who aren’t afraid to bang in the paint and should have a great battle all series.  Perkins, Serge Ibaka, Nazr Mohammed, and Nick Collison will have their hands full battling Nene, Al Harrington, Danilo Gallinari, Kenyon Martin, and Chris Andersen in the post.  Denver also has an assortment of athletic and long wing players to throw at Kevin Durant.  Wilson Chandler, JR Smith, Gallinari, and Aaron Afflalo, if healthy, are all capable of checking Durant for stretches, though I would think Chandler will see the most time on him.  Russell Westbrook is a flatout star at point guard, but perhaps no team has as much of a fighting chance to slow him down as Denver.  Between Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton, the Nuggets have a ton of speed at point guard to defend Westbrook and make him work when Denver has the ball.  The Nuggets are the deeper team in this series as they can play up to ten players without much of a drop off.  The Thunder really only have eight main rotation guys, nine if you include Collison.  I love what the Nuggets have done this year, and I really enjoy the way they play.  In the end, though, I can’t pick against the Thunder because they have the two best players in the series—Westbrook and Durant.  The playoffs usually come down to who executes better in the half-court, and I give a slight edge there to OKC.

Prediction: Thunder in 7

--from Adam

2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs: First Round Picks

#1 Washington Capitals vs. #8 New York Rangers

This recent group of Washington Capitals, despite how successful they typically are during the regular season, consistently struggles in the playoffs.  Maintaining defensive intensity has always been the Caps' Achilles heel and will likely be their undoing again this postseason.  The other issue I'd like to bring up though is Alexander Ovechkin.  When a team is built around one player, like the Caps are with Ovechkin, they become much easier to stop over a seven game series—when a defense can gameplan and really focus on shutting down that one player—than in the regular season when they are just one game on the schedule.  Now, even though I'm not high on the Capitals' chances the rest of these Stanley Cup Playoffs, I don't think the Rangers have enough firepower to pull off the upset just yet.

Prediction: Capitals in 5

#2 Philadelphia Flyers vs. #7 Buffalo Sabres

The Flyers are probably my pick for Eastern Conference champions, so I say they get the train rolling here with a quick sweep.

Prediction: Flyers in 4

#3 Boston Bruins vs. #6 Montreal Canadiens

Goals should be tough to come by in this series as both teams are top-10 in the NHL in goals against.  I give the edge to Boston who has a better group of goal scorers than does Montreal.  Plus, Tim Thomas led all goalies this season in both goals against average and save percentage.

Prediction: Bruins in 6

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Even though they will be without Sidney Crosby this series, I'm going to go with playoff experience and pick the Penguins to beat the Lightning. 

Prediction: Penguins in 7

#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Chicago Blackhawks

This is the same Canucks team that lost to the Blackhawks in each of the past two postseasons, but these aren't the same Blackhawks that won the Stanley Cup last year and went to the Western Conference Finals the year before that.  If the Canucks do choke again this year, it won't be in the first round.

Prediction: Canucks in 6

#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #7 Los Angeles Kings

Speaking of choke artists...

Prediction: Kings in 6

#3 Detroit Red Wings vs. #6 Phoenix Coyotes

This is a rematch of the most exciting matchup from last year's first round, which the Red Wings won in seven.  I expect good hockey once more, but I don't think the results will be much different.

Prediction: Red Wings in 6

#4 Anaheim Ducks vs. #5 Nashville Predators

If that last matchup was the most exciting, this one might be the least.  Only in the Capitals-Rangers matchup did two opposing playoff teams score fewer goals this season.  (The Capitals and Rangers combined for 457 while the Ducks and Predators combined for 458.)  I have no idea who'll win, but I gotta pick somebody.

Prediction: Predators in 7

--from Eric

Looking Forward to the NBA’s Stretch Run

With the All Star Weekend shortening last week’s slate of games, I’ve decided to break down what I’m looking for as we approach the postseason in lieu of my weekly Power Poll.

The All Star Game is over, and with less than 30 regular season games remaining for most teams, the NBA’s intensity is about to ratchet up a notch.  For those of you worried that your favorite team’s All Star will be tired from playing in Sunday’s game, don’t be.  The guys playing Sunday were the only NBA players who weren’t getting black out drunk for the entire weekend.  With that settled let’s discuss:

1. The Bulls Joining the League’s Elite

Joakim Noah will be back soon, I swear.  And when he’s back, the Bulls will be a truly scary team.  They have a certifiable superstar in Derrick Rose.  Not just a stat sheet stuffer, though he is that too, Rose presents an impossible matchup.  Nobody can stay in front of him, and you can’t sag off him like you would Rajon Rondo because Rose’s jumper has become a true weapon.  He makes the right play almost every time he has the ball.  Carlso Boozer is one of the top-10 power forwards in the game, a damn good player.  He’s great from mid-range and has a good back-to-the-basket arsenal.  He provides the Bulls with a reliable half court scoring option that they didn’t have last year.  One of the best three or four rebounders in the league, Noah is a tremendous athlete, defends the rim as well as anyone, and has an improving offensive game.  He also is the rare, talented player that also provides an energy boost whenever he’s on the floor.  Plus, he’s a nasty competitor and a winner—two National Championship titles at Florida.  Amidst Rose, Boozer, and Noah, you almost forget about Luol Deng, who quietly averages 18 points and 6 rebounds a game with excellent efficiency.  A smart player who stays within himself, Deng also leads the team in minutes per game.  The Bulls have one superstar in Rose and three star players, or very near it, in Boozer, Noah, and Deng.  Rose will get 25 points, Boozer 15-25, Deng will chip in 15-20, and Noah will snatch boards, block shots, and run the floor with abandon.  Each of the four players in that group provides a different element that you can count on every night.  Then consider a bench that features Taj Gibson, a second year-forward that’s very skilled offensively; Kyle Korver, sometimes a liability defensively but is one of the very best long distance shooters in the game; Ronnie Brewer, a tremendous athlete with a limited offensive game but an excellent defender with playoff experience; and Kurt Thomas, a rolling ball of rock hard muscle.  He’s not going to get off the ground, but you will not back him down in the post.  The Bulls bring every element you could want—experience, speed, length, offensive firepower, shooting, dribble penetration, athleticism—it’s all there.  And for me, the icing on the cake is that their head coach is Tom Thibodeau, the original architect of the great Celtics defense.  He has made the Bulls similarly tough to score against.  If Chicago runs up against Boston in the playoffs—a good possibility—Thibodeau will know everything Boston is going to do and will have the personnel to exploit it.  And since they run Boston’s defense, the Bulls will also frustrate the Heat as well, which has given Miami fits this year.

2. A Contender Making a Trade

Opposing All Stars, Now Teammates

Somebody will pull the trigger on a move.  It may not be a huge move, but it will be something significant to impact a rotation, change game plans, and affect chemistry.  Maybe the Lakers pursue a point guard, the Bulls or Celtics acquire Anthony Parker, or the Mavericks find some bench athleticism in exchange for Caron Butler’s expiring contract.  And maybe, just maybe, the Knicks can land Carmelo Anthony, though the more these teams negotiate without a deal, the more I think he might be stuck in Denver for the year.  He could go to New Jersey right now, but he doesn’t want to.  He wants to be a Knick, but New York doesn’t want to give away their whole roster for him.  I support the Knicks in that decision.  Anthony is very good, but between him and Amare Stoudemire you have two prolific scorers who don’t play much defense.  Anthony is a great singular talent, but is not worth the entire Knicks roster, especially when they might still be able to get him after the year in free agency.

Well, it looks like that Knick deal went through.  Denver ships Anthony to New York along with Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter, and Renaldo Balkman.  In return, the Nuggets get Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov,  a 2014 first-round draft pick from New York, and additional second round picks from Golden State.

3. The Heat Gelling

Get It Together

This is more of a hope than a prediction; I think it’s possible though.  They’ve been together for almost 60 games now, have been through the media circus, and have won a lot of games.  They’ve got to figure out a plan for half-court offense though.   The pick-and-roll game is their best answer with Dwyane Wade and LeBron James getting screens from Chris Bosh.  Since the big three bring a lot of the same elements to the table, you can’t just have them spread out and run a free flowing offense.  James and Wade just are not great spot-up shooters, and Bosh doesn’t thrive with his back to the hoop.  This means that all three guys need space to operate and be effective.  With the pick-and-roll, James/Wade will either get a driving lane to the hoop where they can finish or kick it out, or Bosh curling to the hoop for the finish or popping out to mid-range territory where he can shoot or drive past a slower defender.  The pick-and-roll also causes teams to help, switch, and make quick decisions on defense, so this could also lead to open looks for marksmen James Jones and Mike Miller.  Those two will have to make shots consistently for this team to succeed in playoffs.  Even if the Heat do all this effectively, they still sorely lack a true back-to-the-basket post player that can suck defenses in and create foul trouble for opponents.

4. The Lakers Recovering

The Black Mamba: Coiled and Ready to Strike

They’re 38-18, but if you’ve been reading headlines and watching TV, you’d think they were in danger of missing the playoffs.  I don’t want to discount all of their struggles lately—to be sure, they’ve looked lethargic, disinterested, slow, and lazy.  Only the slow part really worries me though because the other three are byproducts of mid-February NBA basketball for a team that’s been to the Finals three straight years.  They’ve played an astronomical number of games these past four years, and they just don’t have the mental energy to care about a mid-season game in Charlotte.  But they are slow, and that could hurt, especially on defense.  Ron Artest looks like his feet are stuck in the mud at times, and Derek Fisher can’t stay in front of anyone.  That’s worrisome with the likes of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Rondo and others lurking in the playoffs.  Still, as their only glaring weakness, it’s no different than last year.  In fact, with the addition of Steve Blake, the point guard position has actually gotten slightly better than last year’s team.  Matt Barnes is also an excellent defender who has been out injured, but he should be back in the next couple of weeks.  The All Star break came at the perfect time for the Lakers, allowing them to charge their batteries, take a break from the grind, and come back refocused on refining their playoff gameplan over these last 30 games.  Andrew Bynum is healthy (please knock on nearest piece of wood), Pau Gasol can be great when fed the ball, and Kobe Bryant looked like he was 25 again in the All Star game.  Lamar Odom has played at an elite level all year, and I look for Shannon Brown to get his game back in the closing segment of the season.  Los Angeles is still the most dangerous half-court offense in the league with the best size in the league, the best coach, and the best playoff performer.  Sure, Los Angeles has a few issues, but I think most any team in the league would trade their set of problems for the Lakers’.

5. The Spurs Coasting

A Familiar Sight for the Rest of the Season

This is not coasting in the sense of mailing it in—I assure Gregg Popovich will never let that happen—what I mean is that with a six-game lead over their nearest competitor, San Antonio will be able to rest some key guys down the stretch.  The Spurs have only 26 games left, and at 46-10, would only have to go 14-12 to finish with 60 wins, a simple task for this highly efficient, well-oiled machine of a club.  If they can win say ten of their first fourteen games coming off the break, they should glide to the West’s #1 seed.  That’s great news for Spurs fans that have worried all year about a crash from their aging roster.  Popovich has done a miraculous job managing his veteran’s minutes all season.  By playing eleven guys consistently, nobody on the team exceeds 33 minutes a game.  Tim Duncan is putting in a career low 29 minutes per contest.  Thus, an already well rested Spurs team should be able to take entire games off down the stretch, and could easily have nothing to play for the 7 -10 games.  Rest always trumps rust for a veteran unit like the Spurs who can play their way into form against whoever they face as the #8 seed.

6. Playoffs Baby

We’ve talked a bit about the playoffs already, but now let’s dig deep.  I really believe these upcoming playoffs could be the best we’ve seen in years.  Yes, the East will have a few stinkers in the first round with the 76ers and Pacers currently filling the seventh and eighth spots respectively.  No way can either of those teams run with Boston, Miami, or Chicago in a seven game series.  But after that it gets really good out.  The Knicks are currently slotted in the sixth spot, and while they won’t beat any of the East’s top teams, they play exciting basketball and Madison Square Garden belongs in the postseason.  It’s just a great venue, and having the Knicks back in the party will be a fun element we’ve been missing in recent years.  The 4 vs. 5 matchup will almost certainly be the Magic and the Hawks squaring off, a more competitive series than people might think.  The Magic will be favored because they’ve made deep playoff runs the past two years and have the most dominant player in the series, Dwight Howard.  Yet, Orlando has serious deficiencies.  Chief among them are that they really have no second star to take the burden off Howard and they rely way too much on the three ball.  Atlanta may not be good enough to exploit these weaknesses, but they could push the series to six or seven games.  Then, I think we get Boston vs. Orlando and Chicago vs. Miami in the East Semis.  In the first matchup you get two teams that know and hate each other, and have faced off the past two years in the playoffs.  The latter matchup pits the young gun teams that don’t have a rivalry yet but could develop one right now.  With Rose and Noah at point guard and center, the Bulls are poised to exploit the Heat’s two biggest positions of weakness, and as mentioned, Thibodeau has been a huge headache for James throughout his career.  I think Boston might make quick work of Orlando again, but the Bulls and Heat could go to seven.  Then we would get either Heat vs. Boston, which everyone wants, or Bulls vs. Boston, which would also be great.  (See the 2009 Celtics-Bulls playoff series that went to seven games where only three of those games weren’t decided in overtime.)

Next let’s stroll over to the Western Conference.  Perhaps there aren’t as many elite teams in the West as in the East—I think Boston, Chicago, and Miami are all serious championship contenders—but its a much deeper conference.  The team currently seeded one spot out of the West playoffs, the Grizzlies, are four games over .500; the East’s current eighth seed, the Pacers, is six games under.  As it stands right now, the West matchups would be Spurs vs. Jazz as the 1 vs. 8 that pits Deron Williams, Paul Milsap, and Al Jefferson against Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli, and Duncan…not bad; Mavericks vs. Nuggets, the 2 vs. 7, though this will be subject to change for Anthony-less Denver; Lakers vs. Hornets, 3 vs. 6, despite the disparity in talent and experience, Chris Paul represents a huge matchup issue for LA that probably negates a possible sweep; and Thunder vs. Blazers, 4 vs. 5 matchup, no way the banged up Blazers can steal a series from the likes of Durant and Westbrook.  Then in the West Semis I would predict Spurs vs. Thunder and Lakers vs. Mavericks.  The Thunder-Spurs matchup would be great much like last year’s Thunder-Lakers series was: A young, up-and-coming team with two super stars would take on the epitome of a veteran squad with a deep and balanced attack.  I think the Spurs are too good inside, too deep, and matchup too respectably at point guard—Parker can stay with Westbrook at least a little—for the Thunder to take the series.  The Mavericks are playing well, and will likely have the home court advantage over LA, but they have nobody to guard Kobe or Gasol and I don’t think they could match the Lakers’ size advantage, even with Tyson Chandler.  That would set up an epic Lakers-Spurs West Final.

Let’s hope we can get a Boston, Miami, LA, and San Antonio Final Four.  That would guarantee as good as any Finals pairings in recent memory, great ratings for the NBA, and great games for you and me.

--from Adam

(images from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)