AFC North: 2011 Division Preview

Baltimore Ravens

Does Joe Flacco have another level of play, or has he plateaued?  The answer to that question will determine whether the Baltimore Ravens are a Super Bowl threat or simply a good, playoff-level team.
 

Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, and Lee Evans give Flacco plenty of weapons, and the offensive line is excellent.  Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson will push each other at tight end and provide extra targets in the middle of the field as well.
 

Offseason acquisition Ricky Williams will be a good second back behind Rice, and Vonta Leach was brought in—the best fullback in football—to pave the way for a powerful running attack.
 

Though he gets less credit than Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, both good players who are really getting up there in years, mammoth defensive lineman Haloti Ngata is the best player on the Ravens’ defense.  Former Texan Bernard Pollard, a solid safety, comes in to pair with Reed.
 

Considering Terrell Suggs is a pass rushing monster when healthy, Lewis is an All-Pro in the middle, and Reed plays spectacularly on the back end, even with aging stars the Baltimore defense is still a top-5 unit in the league, but cornerback is a big concern.  First round pick Jimmy Smith has huge talent as a cover man, but he’s a rookie corner; that’s usually a dicey situation.  Chris Carr is decent as is Ladarious Webb, but they don’t have a single lockdown cover guy.
 

Biggest Strengths: Behind a road-grating offensive line and a powerhouse fullback, Ray Rice and Ricky Williams will run rampant over opposing defenses.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Corner.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC North
 

Pittsburgh Steelers
 

Will the defending AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers have a hangover from their Super Bowl loss?  Hard to say, but talent still abounds on this roster.
 

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is unconventional but still a great player, a winner pure and simple as his three Super Bowl appearances and two rings can attest.
 

Mike Wallace is probably the best deep threat in the league, and Jerricho Cotchery and Hines Ward provide good possession targets outside.  In addition, though more of a blocker, tight end Heath Miller, adeptly catches passes too and is a red zone force.
 

Rashard Mendenhall as the feature back has proven to be a talented runner over the past two years, but the offensive line is suspect beyond Maurkice Pouncey.
 

The Pittsburgh defense should again be vicious, spearheaded by their stout front line of Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, and Brett Keisel.  Rookie first rounder Cameron Heyward injects youth and talent into this aging group.
 

The Steelers have the best linebackers in the league with nasty edge rushers James Harrison and Lamar Woodley and the Lawrence Timmons emerging as a star inside.  James Farrior is still a good player but at age 36 has clearly lost a step.
 

Corner is a weak spot on this team, but they can usually make up for it with a heavy dose of pass rush and the flying Troy Polamalu, perhaps the best defensive player in the league when healthy.
 

Biggest Strengths: Their defensive playmakers Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: What they have at cornerback doesn't stack up with the rest of the defense, and the offensive line leaves something to be desired.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, Second in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC North
 

Cleveland Browns
 

This may be the year we find out if Colt McCoy can be a good starting quarterback in the NFL.  He doesn’t have to be a star, but if he can play consistently and not lose his team games, the Cleveland Browns will be competitive.
 

Peyton Hillis is a powerful running back, but there has to be at least a slight concern that last year was a flash in the pan.
 

The Browns have very little in terms of perimeter threats, really any good receiving options.  Featuring Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, and Alex Mack, the offensive line is very good.  They will need to be to give McCoy time to throw as the receivers won’t create much separation.

The defense is largely unproven and riddled with no-name players.  Second-year men Joe Haden and TJ Ward need to make big strides to make the secondary formidable.  The defensive line is a work in progress evidenced by the Brownies spending their first two draft picks on linemen Phil Taylor and Jabal Sheard.
 

Biggest Strengths: The offensive line is one the league’s best and will make life at least a little easier for young Colt McCoy and the bruising Peyton Hillis.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: An overall lack of talent; outside of Joe Thomas, no one on the Browns is top-10 league-wide at his position.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC North
 

Cincinnati Bengals
 

The Cincinnati Bengals are definitely in the running for worst record in the league this year, but the great thing about the NFL is that some team surprises you every year.  Bengals fans can cling to that hope, though I consider their outlook very murky.
 

Carson Palmer looks to be firm in his stance that he will retire if he’s not traded, and the Bengals equally firm in that they will not trade Palmer.  That likely means rookie Andy Dalton will be thrown into the fire as the starter, and though he’s a smart and accurate passer, the NFL is a far cry from Texas Christian University.
 

Cedric Benson has quite a bit of wear on the tires, and though he can be a workhorse back, he’s not going to give you much on anything in terms of explosive plays.
 

AJ Green has superstar potential and he will grow up with Dalton which should form a nice duo in the future, but I wouldn’t expect miracles right away.
 

The offensive line is average at best, and it’s high time for Andre Smith to live up to his status as a top-10 draft pick.
 

Defensively the Bengals have some promising young talent.  Despite character concerns—always a popular theme in Cincinnati—Carlos Dunlap came in last year and finished with 9.5 sacks as a rookie.  Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and new addition Manny Lawson give the Bengals one of the most athletic linebacking units in football, though all three players still have plenty to prove.
 

Losing Jonathan Joseph slices away half of what was one of the best corner back duos in the game.  Joseph’s former partner in crime, Leon Hall, now has to look forward to playing opposite either Nate Clements or Pacman Jones.
 

This is a young team with talent but also an overwhelming amount of inexperience, and that should show throughout the season.
 

Biggest Strengths: Young talent abounds with the likes of Andy Dalton, AJ Green, Carlos Dunlap, Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and Leon Hall.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: The team relies entirely on its unproven/inexperienced NFL players.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC North

--from @AdamHocking

NFL Draft Grades 2011: AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore corner situation last year held back what could have been another excellent defense.  Also, it’s probably what stopped them from making the Super Bowl.  With their top pick, the Ravens made a big splash by drafting the mega-talented Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado).  There were off the field concerns about him, but I don’t usually buy into that stuff, especially not with Ray Lewis leading the locker room.  Athletically Smith is on the level of Patrick Peterson, the undisputed best prospect in the draft.  At 6’2”, 210 pounds, Smith runs a 4.42 40-yard dash.  With the speed to stay with any receiver, Smith also is a physical corner that tackles very well.  He is an instant impact player for the Baltimore defense at a huge area of need.

In the next round the Ravens addressed their second-biggest need with a player that could have gone in the first round.  Maryland’s Torrey Smith is a talented, speedy receiver that can complement the bruising possession man Anquan Boldin.  Finally Baltimore’s offense feels complete: a good quarterback in Joe Flacco, a great running back in Ray Rice, and a bevy of wideouts, which now includes a true deep threat.  Productive last year and with good size at 6’1”, 205 pounds, Torrey Smith can run by many NFL corners and will be a perfect fit for Flacco’s great deep ball.

Central Florida offensive tackle Jah Reid was drafted because Jared Gaither may be out the door in free agency this year.  At 6’7” and 330 pounds, he has a great frame for the tackle position and won’t be moved by bull rushes.  Reid needs to work on mechanics, but he has the talent for the position.  In a year or two he may be ready to start.

If Torrey Smith was their deep threat, Tandon Doss (WR, Indiana) was their possession receiver in this draft.  Doss is a big target—6’2”, 200 pounds—who lacks top-end speed but has great hands and likes to go over the middle.

In the fifth round Baltimore nabbed another cover man from Texas (How many damn corners does Texas have?) Chykie Brown.  Fast, agile, and smooth, Brown is a really talented in coverage, but he tends to get overpowered by bigger receivers.  He could be a great fit as a nickel corner.

The Ravens also took a sixth round flyer on Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor.  Who knows what he will be?

I love the pick of Jimmy Smith, a Pro Bowl talent.  Torrey Smith fits a big-time need as a deep threat and is a solid receiver overall.  Reid is a talented offensive tackle that fits a need, but he won’t be ready for a while.  Providing Flacco help to truly thrive is hugely important, so adding a second receiver, Doss, was a nice strategy.  In addition to Jimmy Smith, Brown can help in coverage right away too.  The Ravens’ biggest needs were targets for Flacco and help in the secondary, and they got four players that can all help right away, so I loved their draft.

The quarterback, running back, offensive line, and front seven are very good.  If this rookie class can come in and do what I think they can, they could push Baltimore to a championship.

Grade: A

Cincinnati Bengals

Carson Palmer is not walking through that door, and to me, I’m not sure why the Bengals are holding on to him like grim death.  His best days are behind him, and if Cincinnati can get value for him, trading him seems like a good move.  I know trades can’t be made right now, but the Bengals have repeatedly stated that they will not trade Palmer.

More on that situation in a second, but now onto their first pick, Georgia wideout AJ Green.  Comparisons to Calvin Johnson are not unfounded; he’s a spectacular leaper with great size at 6’4” and 211 pounds.  Though not currently overly physical, Green could add ten pounds of muscle to his long frame without losing much speed, which he has plenty of, running a 4.4 40-yard dash.  He makes an immediate impact as a deep threat and red zone target.

In the second round, the Bengals picked a guy I can’t quite wrap my head around: Andy Dalton (QB, TCU).  The best way I can describe him is that he has first round smarts and fourth round skills.  He’s accurate without a huge arm, but he can make most NFL throws.  In addition, he’s smallish for a quarterback, just 6’2” and 215 pounds.  But hey, Drew Brees is 6’ tall and is among the top-5 quarterbacks in the league.

All of the negatives about Dalton worry me because they remind me of Alex Smith.  Dalton will probably be the starter from Day One, and though his arm isn’t a howitzer, he’s smart enough to pick up an NFL system rapidly.  He struggles getting the ball deep downfield and does not have tremendous mobility.  Plus, he came from a spread offense at TCU, which typically does not prepare quarterbacks for NFL success.

Dalton signals a revamping of the culture in Bengals football, and I don’t mean this to sound like coded bigotry.  Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco—both unlikely to return to the team—aren’t thugs at all; they’re mostly decent guys but they incessantly crave attention.  They distract from the task at hand: winning football games.

In the third round the Bengals addressed their need for a pass rush threat by getting a great athlete in Nevada’s Dontay Mach.  Probably destined to be a situational player, with 4.4 flat speed and a 245-pound frame, Mach has the all physical skills to get to the quarterback.

Clint Boling (OG, Georgia) was a solid pick in the fourth round.  After starting four years in SEC—you know how much I like that—he’ll come in ready for a physical pounding.  Though not a great athlete for the position, Boling is the type of guy who could start this year and be solid, though he may never be great.

A really talented free safety from West Virginia, Robert Sands, came to the Bengals in the fifth.  A 6’4”, 217-pound thumper, sometimes Sands tries to lay people out too much and misses tackles.  He has good speed, and his length is an advantage in breaking up jump balls.

In the sixth round the Bengals nabbed (gasp) a white receiver from Stanford, Ryan Whalen.  Though not a good athlete, Whalen is strong with good hands and should be able to get off the line.  His ceiling is a solid possession receiver, and his basement is not making the team.

AJ Green is an immense talent, one of the most surefire prospects in the draft, who with Owens and Ochocinco out the door, fills a huge need.  Dalton was probably the best choice available in the second round since Palmer has to be replaced, and if nothing else, he will be a solid starter in this league.  Also consider the smarts and leadership he brings to the locker room.  Moch certainly has the physical skills to become a feared pass rusher, but coming from Nevada we’ll have to see how he fares against much stronger competition.  Boling is a pick I love because I think you’re getting a steady starter for the next 5-10 years, not great, but a guy you don’t worry about, unlike Andre Smith.  Sands has big-time potential at safety but plays wild, and Whalen may or may not make the squad.  They filled needs, got one of the best players in the draft, and brought in solid people like Boling and Dalton, so I think Cincy did pretty well for themselves.

Grade: B+

Cleveland Browns

The Browns only won five games last year, but they were a tough out for most everyone they played.  Not overly stocked with talent, they were gritty and had a formula that showed promise.

I think not picking a quarterback was the best thing they did this draft.  With no guaranteed passing prospects available, they were right to give Colt McCoy another year to progress.

With their first pick they drafted the jettisoned Shaun Rogers’ replacement, Baylor nose guard Phil Taylor.  A monster against the run that can occupy two blockers, the 6’4”, 340-pound Taylor still needs to learn the game and get better technique-wise, but he has the ability to be a dominant force.

Pittsburgh’s Jabal Sheard played more defensive end in college, but he’s clearly going to transition to 3-4 outside linebacker in Cleveland.  He has great athleticism, running a 4.68 40-yard dash, and has good size at 6’3” and 265 pounds.  Sheard’s 9 sacks last year in college showed superb pass rush ability.

I felt that Greg Little (WR, North Carolina) was a reach late in the second round, but he does possess tremendous size at 6’3” and 230 pounds.  For such a large frame, running a 4.51 40 is plenty fast, but this guy has a lot to learn and needs to really refine his game.  A big-time talent, it’s a 50/50 proposition if he pans out, and he probably won’t be ready to make an impact this year.

USC’s Jordan Cameron is a very talented tight end to get in the fourth round.  He has soft hands, 4.5 speed, and runs good routes, and he can help right away as a middle of the field target.

The versatile Owen Marecic was a half back and full back at Stanford and was another Cleveland's fourth round picks.  This talented player will make an instant impact as a lead blocker, a receiver, and running back.

They really bolstered their front seven with Taylor and Sheard, which I loved.  Little was a reach, but in the second round he was a decent pick considering his potential ceiling as a dominant, physical force.  Or he could be an athlete that can’t figure out the game and we'll never hear from again.  Cameron will help McCoy right away as a security blanket in the red zone/middle of the field.  He also has some explosive, deep threat ability for a tight end.  Marecic is the type of player you love because he can help in so many ways—running, blocking, receiving, special teams—and he’s smart.

The only thing I thought the Browns needed to do was get even more help for McCoy, though Cameron and Little are guys with big potential.  The Browns have a good offensive line, running game, and spent high picks on the secondary last year.  So clearly skilled receivers and front seven help was the order of the day, and they addressed those needs very well.

Grade: A-

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh doesn’t have a ton of weaknesses; that’s fairly obvious considering they are the defending AFC Champs.

With their first pick they get a guy in Cameron Heyward (DL, Ohio State) who fits in perfectly with their 3-4 scheme.  Pittsburgh is strong but aging along their defensive front, and Heyward adds a dynamic talent that can enter the rotation immediately.

Offensive line may have been a bigger need, but they may get better at that spot just by getting healthy.  Plus, they addressed the line with their second round pick.  Florida tackle Marcus Gilbert is an absolute mammoth that played a ton in college and has the talent to start immediately.  If nothing else, he will be a good backup right away and can develop into a good starter down the road.

With their next pick, the Steelers continued to address their top needs by grabbing the Texas cornerback Curtis Brown.  Exposed by the Packer passing game in the Super Bowl, upgrading the Pittsburgh secondary was a high priority.   Sticky in man coverage, Brown is a talented player who could have gone in the second round.  He has a lot to learn though, foremost how to tackle.

The Citadel’s Cortez Allen, another corner, was a reach even in the fourth, but he does address the corner need.  We just will have to wait to see if he pans out.

Nabbing outside linebacker Chris Carter in the fifth round was a steal; he should have gone in the third round.  In Carter the Steelers drafted a raw, talented athlete to develop and eventually replace James Harrison.  Who better to learn under than Harrison and Lamar Woodley for a young pass rusher? 

Overall I like that the Steelers went strictly for addressing needs.  They probably could have used some help at the skill positions (particularly a replacement for aging Hines Ward) but they upgraded their defensive and offensive lines with their first two picks.  They also added two corners to what was a weak coverage unit last year, and I think at least Curtis Brown can make an instant impact.  Carter was a big talent to get in the fifth that can be groomed to continue the tradition of pass rushing linebackers in the Steel City.  The Steelers aren’t far away from winning it all again, so what they needed to do was get players that can instantly improve their few weaknesses, and that’s just what they did.

Grade: B

--from @AdamHocking

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers

#31 Pittsburgh Steelers

What They Need: They were very good last year but fell just short in a great Super Bowl battle.  Pittsburgh typically struggles with the Super Bowl hangover—the last two times they won the big game, they failed to make the playoffs in the following year—so we’ll see if next season is different, seeing as how they didn’t win.  Quarterback is all set with Ben Roethlisberger, unless he does something really stupid this offseason, which is always a possibility.  Rashard Mendenhall is a terrific young back that can do virtually anything on a football field.  He could use a quality backup though.  Hines Ward is really getting old and has clearly slowed down, though he is still a viable possession player.  One guy who hasn’t slowed down is the human blur Mike Wallace, who proved last year he is one of the league’s best deep threats.  Heath Miller is an outstanding tight end who won’t blow anybody away with physical skills, but is an asset in the pass and run games.  The weak spot on this offense is the line.  Last year Roethlisberger was running for his life—granted, that’s his style—entirely too often.  Part of the problem was simply injuries as Pittsburgh lost both of their starting tackles for the season.  Maurkice Pouncey proved to be a steal at center as a late first round pick and is already a Pro Bowl player.  Outside of Pouncey I think any of the linemen could stand to be replaced.  Defense is obviously where the Steelers are strong.  The front line of Ziggy Hood, Casey Hampton, and Brett Keisel is exceptionally stout against the run and excellent at consuming blocks.  Hampton, Keisel, and Aaron Smith are all north of 30 but still have plenty left in their respective tanks.  Lamar Woodley, James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons, and James Harrison compose the best linebacking group in football.  Farrior and Harrison are getting older, and Farrior especially is showing signs of decline.  Safety is a very strong position on this team between mega star Troy Polamalu and the solid Ryan Clark.  Corner is in need of an upgrade between starters Ike Taylor and Brian McFadden.

Who They Might Pick: They could nab a number of different positions here, particularly receiver, offensive lineman, or corner.  The latter two are probably the most pressing needs.  It would be neat if Maurkice’s brother Mike Pouncey fell to this spot and they could start on the same offensive line.  Pouncey will likely be gone however, and Danny Watkins, the guard from Baylor, is a bigger possibility.  Gabe Carimi is still on my board, though he will likely be picked higher.  I doubt any of the top offensive tackles will be available here.  Marcus Cannon (TCU) is a behemoth offensive tackle and is a possibility, though he might be able to be gotten later.  Ben Ijalana is a guard from Villanova who was great in college, but that was at the FCS level.  Maybe they could think about selecting an heir apparent to Farrior, and if that’s the case, the super athlete Martez Wilson (Illinois) could be a thought.  Corner might be the Steelers’ only area of need that wouldn’t involve a significant reach here.  Jimmy Smith (Colorado), Brandon Harris (Miami), Aaron Williams (Texas), Ras-I Dowling (Virginia), and Davon House (New Mexico State) could all be available at pick thirty-one.

My Advice: The Steelers have to improve their offensive line, so I’ll give them the mammoth Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin.  He’s a force in the run game and will be an upgrade in pass protection, though that’s not his strong suit.  Since Carimi might not be available this late, a good alternative for the Steelers would be the physical corner Dowling.

With the thirty-first pick, the Pittsburgh Steelers take Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin.

#32 Green Bay Packers

What They Need: They need health and they should get just that.  Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, Nick Barnett, Brad Jones, and Atari Bigby are all starters who missed most of last year to injuries.  With those players back in the fold, needs are truly at a minimum.  Aaron Rodgers is perhaps the best quarterback in the NFL (yes I said it, even though Tom Brady and Peyton Manning aren’t supposed to move from their concrete spots as the two best passers in the league).  James Starks showed nice flashes last year as a rookie runner, and Grant should be ready to go at the start of the season.  Those two provide a more than ample rushing threat for the pass-happy Pack.  The receiving corps is the deepest in the league with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Finley.  The offensive line is the only real weakness on the offense, and really, calling it weak is inaccurate.  They were pretty darn good in the playoffs last year and got better throughout the season.  Brian Bulaga is going to be a very good tackle for a long time in the NFL, and Josh Sitton is a stud at guard.  Scott Wells is the definition of solid at center.  Give me a guy at that position whose name I don’t hear all game, and I’m happy.  Daryn Colledge could probably stand to be replaced, and while Mark Tauscher was excellent last year, he’s 33 with a history of injuries.  Amazingly, the Packers' defense might have fewer needs than the offense.  The front line of BJ Raji, Cullen Jenkins, and Ryan Pickett is a play-making, immoveable unit.  Second year man Mike Neal should develop further and could provide nice depth along the defensive front.  Another solid guy to fit in the defensive line rotation would be nice though.  The linebacking corps has an embarrassment of riches with Clay Matthews, Barnett, AJ Hawk, Desmond Bishop, Brad Jones, Erick Walden, Brady Poppinga, and Brandon Chillar fighting over four spots.  Finding a pure pass rusher to put opposite of the Matthews would be a nice idea.  The secondary is tremendous.  Charles Woodson doesn’t even have to play corner anymore with the emergence of young stars Tramon Williams and Sam Shields.  Woodson will play safety, corner, and linebacker at times, and that versatility will help really prolong his career.  Nick Collins is one of the best four or five safeties in football and Charlie Peprah doesn’t make mistakes.  Morgan Burnett should come along as well.

Who They Might Pick: Though you can’t call any area a glaring need, offensive or defensive line is where the Packers could improve most.  Cameron Heyward (Ohio State) might just be lingering on the board and would be a great pick to add depth and talent to the defensive line.  Marvin Austin, Corey Liuget, or Stephen Paea are all defensive linemen who could play in the 3-4.  Mike Pouncey, Watkins, or Ijalana could all fit at guard even if they don’t start immediately.  I also think the Packers could simply use this selection on the best player available.  Kyle Rudolph would be a fun toy at tight end for Rodgers to play with.  He’s not a need, but putting Rudolph on the field with Finley would make this offense even more frightening.  Akeem Ayers could possibly be on the board as an edge rusher, and if not, Brooks Reed (Arizona) might fit that mold as well.  I also think running back could be an idea.  Starks is not proven yet, and Grant is coming off a major knee injury.  Mikel LeShoure (Illinois) and Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech) are considered fringe, first round talents at the halfback position.  I also think Green Bay could trade this pick to move up and nab a real impact player or move down and accrue more selections.

My Advice: There’s plenty of time to address the offensive and defensive lines later in the draft.  With this pick the Packers need to get the best talent available and avoid reaching.  Green Bay should take Mikel LeShoure from Illinois.  No, running back is not a huge need, but LeShoure is a big time talent, and at 227 pounds would add a smash-mouth element this team has been missing.  LeShoure can get the tough yards and could be a real weapon on the goal line.

For the thirty-second selection, the Green Bay Packers pick Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois.

--from Adam

(images from zimbio.com)

Super Bowl Game Notes

Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay Packers 31 – Pittsburgh Steelers 25

-It may seem a little silly to break down a game that everyone and their grandmother, excluding the 400 fans kicked out of their seats, watched live a week ago.  But silliness abounds here at the Hill, so hit it!

-It has also taken me a week to come down off my emotional high and clear my head after my Packers just WON THE FUCKING SUPER BOWL!!!

-Let's start with the game-changing play.  With Nick Collins' first quarter house call, teams with a pick six in the Super Bowl move to 11-0, including 6-0 in the last decade and 3-0 in the last three Super Bowls.

-X Factor

-I'll stick to the other singular standout moments.  Game-winning play: "It's time."  The Packers had just a four point lead when Kevin Greene's protégé, Clay Matthews, forced a Rashard Mendenhall fumble on the first play of the fourth quarter.  This led to the decisive Green Bay touchdown; the Packers' 28 points ended up more than the Steelers could muster.

-Then after a Steelers touchdown and two point conversion, the Packers got the ball with seven and a half minutes left in the game, clinging to a three point lead.  Seven minutes is a lot of time to drain off the clock for a team with no running game to speak of, so the Packers were going to have to air it out, drive the ball, and score to put the game out of the surging Steelers' reach for good.  Aaron Rodgers and company were up to the task, manufacturing a Mason Crosby field goal for the dagger.  (Ever the perfectionist, Rodgers was quite disappointed with himself after the game for not scoring a touchdown there.)  The key play on that Packer possession, what we can call the potential game-saving play, was a Rodgers-to-Greg Jennings 31-yard strike on a 3rd and 10 early in the drive.

-Aside from the one touchdown catch, Mike Wallace never beat the Packers deep.  Either Sam Shields and Tramon Williams were in his hip pocket all night or the Steelers didn't have the right gameplan.  I can't tell you how many bubble screens and short crosses the Steelers ran for Wallace, but it seemed like a lot, too much even.  You use the short routes to get your main weapon going, get him into the flow of the game, but at some point you have to let him run.  Wallace's game is speed; he doesn't have the quickness to turn short passes into long gains.  If you would've told me before the game that Wallace would have nine catches and the Packers would win, I'd have punched you in the face.  But that's exactly what did happen as Wallace's 9.9 yard per catch average was not enough to make the Packers pay.

-21 of Green Bay's 31 points were scored off three Steeler turnovers.  Conversely, Green Bay turned the ball over a grand total of 0 times.  Moral of the story: take care of the ball, Pittsburgh.

-Let's also look at Adam's top priority in The Pick and compare quarterbacks.  Rodgers finished with a 61.5% completion percentage, going 24/39 for 304 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions.  His passer rating was 111.5.  On the other side, Ben Roethlisberger went 62.5% on his completions, 25/40 for 263 yards, two touchdowns, two crucial interceptions, and had a 77.4 passer rating.

-This term gets over-used, but this game was a microcosm of the Green Bay season overall.  The Packers have a been a team marred by injuries all year, but they always overcame.  This game was no different as veteran leaders on either side of the ball, both Charles Woodson and Donald Driver missed the entire second half.  That gave Green Bay's deep bench the opportunity to shine as has so often been the case.  Though he had some big drops, Jordy Nelson came through big time when coverage rolled Jennings' way.  Nelson finished with 9 catches–he easily could have had about four more–for 140 yards and a touchdown.  On defense, Woodson was a cornerback in name only.  He played all over the field and made quarterbacks' lives hell in coverage and on the blitz.  That's why I give props to the trio of Jarrett Bush, Pat Lee, who came in when both Woodson and Shields went down for a time, and outside linebacker Frank Zombo.  Bush had one of two first quarter interceptions that led to Packer points.  He also had a second half pressure on Roethlisberger that was eerily Woodson-like.  Though Lee didn't make any standout plays, he never got burned for a big gain, which is all one can ask out of a backup cornerback coming in for two injured starters.  Zombo was in Roethlisberger's face all night and recorded the Packers' only sack.  Plus, I just love saying, "Zombo."

-Okay, can we draft now?

--from Eric

The Pick

Adam: -I've been back and forth on this game ten times this week.  How do you even begin to break down a game with so many facets, matchups, angles, and variables?  I guess you start a conversation with yourself and just go with what comes first.

And the first thing that comes to mind when I think of Packers vs. Steelers in the Super Bowl is quarterback play.  Why?  Sure, there are the obvious reasons.  They touch the ball every play.  They have the biggest impact on the game.  The NFL has become a passing league.  All of that.  But more so because this game will be played in pristine indoor conditions, excellent for precise passing attacks, and on display will be two of the top five quarterbacks in the league today.

For a few reasons, I believe Aaron Rodgers is the single most important figure in this Super Bowl.  The coaching staffs for both teams are thinking of one player more than any other, and that player is Rodgers.  For the Green Bay coaching staff, the paramount, penultimate, number one priority is to protect Rodgers.  For Mike Tomlin, Dick LeBeau and company, their main focus is to hit, hurry, distract, and disorient Rodgers.  If Rodgers gets roughed up and plays poorly, the Steelers will, in effect, cut the head off the snake.  A sub-par Rodgers means a crippled Green Bay passing game and likely a one-sided Super Bowl.

Consider that Pittsburgh's run defense is historically good after allowing just 62 yards per game in the regular season.  Add the fact that the Packers have barely had a running game all season, and you see why so much pressure falls on Rodgers.  The Packers likely won't be able to run, and if Mike McCarthy tires of pounding James Starks, Brandon Jackson, and John Kuhn for one or two yards a carry, he will abandon it altogether.  Thus, Green Bay's points will surely come from the arm of Rodgers.

Protecting Ben Roethlisberger is not quite as important as protecting Rodgers because (1) Roethlisberger thrives when he's getting hit, breaking tackles, and extending the play, (2) Pittsburgh can balance out the Green Bay pass rush with their own solid running game,  and (3) after enduring a barrage of body blows, Roethlisberger wouldn't be impacted the same way the smaller Rodgers would.

So with the necessity of protecting Rodgers understood, the questions remains. Can the Packers actually block Blitzburgh?  Or rather, can they block them well enough for Rodgers and company to put up 23 points and allow the defense to do their part in limiting Roethlisberger?  My definitive answer: um, I think so.  Kind of.  Just bare with me for a minute.

Earlier this season, two teams that utilize a spread out offensive attack and rely on their extremely accurate quarterbacks to make good decisions both beat the Steelers this year by somewhat comfortable margins, the Saints by 10 and the Patriots by 13.  And though both New England and New Orleans probably have better offensive lines than Green Bay, Rodgers is playing as well right now as either Drew Brees or Tom Brady did this year.  To further the comparison, New England and New Orleans also did not have great rushing attacks, much like Green Bay.  Against the Steelers, Brees threw the ball 44 times for 305 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception in the Saints' win over the Steelers Week 8.  The Saints ran the ball only 21 times.  Brady threw the ball 43 times against Pittsburgh, completing 30 passes for 350 yards, three scores, and no interceptions.  It's reasonable to assume that in a dome environment with little crowd impact that Rodgers could have similar success, or even exceed what Brees and Brady did against Pittsburgh.

Much of that though will depend on how Rodgers' offensive line plays.  Chad Clifton is a good but not great left tackle that relies on solid balance, technique, and experience.  He does not have brute strength or the prototypical athleticism you would look for in a franchise tackle–those days are gone for the veteran–but he made the Pro Bowl, and it wasn't undeserved.  He played consistently well throughout the year.  Book-ending Clifton is rookie tackle Brian Bulaga, who has never shown a glaring weakness or been dominated during a game.  He never had a Tony Mandarich-"Reggie White is crushing that guy" type of game.  And that's underselling it.  Though he may have his rookie moments, he really never looks overwhelmed on the field.  Moving inside, Scott Wells can be trusted at center not to make big holes in the ground game but to keep everything steady and be a solid pass blocker.  Josh Sitton has become a very good guard in the NFL that plays well in both pass and run situations.

Just as vital as the play of the offensive line itself will be the scheme McCarthy designs to deal with Pittsburgh's pressure.  Spreading the Steelers out is ideally what the Packers want to do, but they will often need to keep a back or tight end in to help block.  They may want to do some max protection and just let Greg Jennings and Donald Driver make plays.  It would be great to splice in the run game simply for the benefit of play action and to open up the rest of the playbook, but that's wishful thinking.

When McCarthy does spread the field, Rodgers' biggest advantage will be to see exactly where the blitz is coming from.  Principally, it will come from Lamar Woodley, James Harrison, and Troy Polamalu, all lethal blitzers.  Lawrence Timmons is maybe Pittsburgh's most athletic linebacker and he will blitz up the middle on occasion as well.  When Pittsburgh blitzes however, Rodgers will have one-on-one coverage, and the Steelers' corners are going to get beat.  With even a little time to throw, Rodgers will make the Steelers pay.  When Polamalu blitzes, it's difficult to block, but it also takes the Steelers' best cover man out of the secondary.

With two weeks to prepare, a great offensive coach, the best quarterback playing right now, and a deep core of receivers, Green Bay is going to move the ball and score some points.  Pittsburgh has a tremendous defense, but the thing they are worst at defending will be what Green Bay wants to do the most.  I really do doubt that the Packers will run the ball more than eighteen times simply because it won't be effective.  Normally you would say that makes them one-dimensional, and thus, advantage: Steelers.  But with a superstar, quick-release quarterback playing indoors, it could just mean a long day for the one chink in the Pittsburgh defense's armor, their cornerback play.

Thus far we've spoken about the part of the game everyone really wants to watch: that vaunted Steeler defense against the poetry in motion that is Green Bay's passing attack.  Yet, both the Green Bay defense and the Steeler offense are being undersold in this game.  Roethlisberger, Rashard Mendenhall, Mike Wallace, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews, BJ Raji, Nick Collins, Tramon Williams.  Is that enough intrigue for you?

Pittsburgh's offense, while it won't steal the headlines, is always just what it needs to be.  It can be ugly for stretches, but Roethlisberger seems to have a "key drive" button that he pushes in the last five minutes of a half or the game, and the Steelers always seem to click at crucial moments.  You might see a drive where Big Ben makes three plays where you think, "He's down.  They got him.  Sack!  Oh, wait, he's slipping out, and oh no, he sees a man open...was that a stiff arm?...oh crap, he completed it for a first down."  He breaks the will of defense when he continually extends plays that should have ended as a sack or a throw away.

Mendenhall is one of the most talented running backs in the league with a rare combination of power, speed, and moves.  He can be a workhorse, but I think he'll be limited with the injury to Maurkice Pouncey, not to mention that both the Steelers' offensive tackles are really fill-in guys.  Plus, Raji, Cullen Jenkins, and Ryan Pickett are bringing about 1,000 pounds of pain to the party.

The Packers want Pittsburgh to pass because they do not want the Steelers to control the clock with the run game.  Despite Roethlisberger's ad-lib greatness, the Packers know that the Steelers' offensive line is overmatched and that they should be able to force Roethlisberger into some mistakes.  Stop Mendenhall, and suddenly guys named Jonathan Scott, Doug Legursky, and Ramon Foster are trying to block Matthews, the three big boys up front, and Woodson coming on the blitz.  Roethlisberger is great outside the pocket, but if he has to throw the ball 35+ times, Pittsburgh is going to lose because they won't be able to protect well enough.

The Packers' secondary, which is hardly mentioned, is one of the best in the league.  Williams can be relied upon as a top-flight cover man who makes the big play, and rookie Sam Shields is just about the only guy on the planet as fast as Wallace.  Toss in  Woodson, last year's Defensive Player of the Year that Redskins tight end Chris Cooley calls "the best player in the NFL," and Pro Bowl safety Collins; Pittsburgh receivers should be blanketed all day.

Raji is one of the best nose tackles in the league; he'll be facing a backup center.  Matthews was second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting; he'll be rushing against two backup offensive tackles.  More from Cooley, he praises Matthews saying that the Redskins were unable to pass simply because he was on the field.  Look out, Ben.

Roethlisberger is going to make his share of plays and Pittsburgh's defense is excellent.  That said, the Packers' defense allowed only 15 points per game this year and have gotten better every week since mid-way through the season.  With great talent across the lineup and many of those guys will be going against Pittsburgh's backup-level players, the Packers are completely capable of being the best defense on the field Sunday.

Green Bay won't move the ball at will or anything like that, but I think this game, this environment, and the way these teams matchup, it overall favors the Pack.  Like I said, Green Bay's defense could be the best on Super Sunday.  I just don't think Pittsburgh's offense can say the same about themselves.

So what it all comes down to: two great defenses and one great offense.  Get ready Title Town, ol' Lombardi is coming home.

Adam's Prediction: Packers 27 – Steelers 19

Eric: -In order to win the Pick-Down, I have to pick the opposite of Adam.  Thus...

Eric's Prediction: Steelers 28 – Packers 26

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Steelers vs. Packers	Packers	Steelers
	Adam	Eric
Conference Championship Record	2-0	2-0
Conference Championship Points	12	12
Total Points	174	169
Playoff Record	7-3	5-5
Combined Record (Regular Season and Playoffs)	155-111	156-110

Super Bowl Soup

There are tons of storylines floating around in the buildup to the Super Bowl. Let's look at what matters, and what is just media fodder.

Twitter-Gate

First of all, if it involves Twitter, it should not be in any way shape or form related to Watergate.  Second of all, it wasn't a story to begin with.  If you actually read what Nick Barnett and Aaron Rodgers said, it really wasn't all that abrasive.  Nobody said anything all that inflammatory, and the whole team picture thing got resolved anyway.  Plus, Rodgers was the one to lobby for the players on IR to be in the photo.  If twitter is going to derail your team, you'll never make it to the Super Bowl.  So now you see the backbone of an ESPN storyline: smoke and mirrors.

Relevance Meter: Zero

Maurkice Pouncey's Injury

The latest is that Mike Tomlin won't rule him out, but with two major ankle injuries, he likely won't play.  Even if he does, he won't be near 100%.  That means that Doug Legursky will be snapping the ball, calling the line signals, and attempting to handle BJ Raji every play.  Legursky wasn't drafted, was previously cut, and then re-signed by the Steelers.  He is not a guy the Steelers should want the field on Super Sunday, but that's the reality they will–in all probability–face.  Instead of the Pro Bowler Pouncey, the Steelers must start the journeyman Legursky at one of the most pivotal positions on the field.  The fact that the Steelers already have offensive line issues and that the Packers are so strong across their front seven really makes the Pouncey injury devastating.

Relevance Meter: Game-Altering

The Experience Issue

The Steelers simply know this Super Bowl environment better than the Packers, but how much does that matter?  I think the Packers' inexperience may give them a little added anxiety in the buildup to the game, but this is a team that has played some very big games in the last two years.  Last year's matchups against Brett favre's Vikings were some of the most watched football games in history.  Over the past three weeks the Packers won at Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Chicago, with each game's meaning amplified in successive weeks.  Once the ball is kicked and guys start hitting, it will feel natural to the both teams because they're football players and this is what they do.

Relevance Meter: Minor Mental Edge for the Steelers

The Bye Week

Both teams benefit from the bye week, but I think it could have a negative impact for the Packers.  I know they've played one more game than Pittsburgh and need the extra week of rest, but I also think the more time the Packers have to build this game up in their minds, the worse it might be for them.  The Steelers' whole roster (virtually) has been to the Super Bowl at least once, whereas almost no Packers have been there.  The Steelers will have their routine and know exactly how to minimize the distractions and maximize their preparation time.  The Steelers' older defense is probably also enjoying this rest, though I think Clay Matthews, Rodgers, Donald Driver, Charles Woodson, and Chad Clifton will benefit from some down time too.  Rodgers is also renowned for being extremely diligent in his preparation, so the extra week may help him be very sharp.

Relevance Meter: It helps the Steelers a bit in the experience department.

Troy Polamalu wins the Defensive Player of the Year Award

...And Matthews came in second.  Matthews is a man that feeds on disrespect and others doubting him.   Matthews' dad coached him in high school and didn't start him.  He rode the bench at USC for the better part of three years before getting his opportunity.  Then coming into the NFL, other USC linebackers, Brian Cushing and Rey Maualuga, got more press and attention.  Matthews just continues to feed on the what people think he can't do, and with an extra week to rest his jets, he should be ready to go out there, and, as he says, "Prey like an animal."

Relevance Meter: You wouldn't like Clay when he's angry.

--from Adam