Quick and Dirty NBA First Round Predictions

I'm in a time crunch folks, I'm going to get my marriage license this morning, but that doesn't mean I've forgotten the most important thing, the NBA Playoffs:

(1) Chicago Bulls V. (8) Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are athletic and deep, but they just don't have enough offensive punch to last in this series.  They'll compete and these games will be basketball played the right way: team defense, sharing the ball, good effort.  The Bulls just play that style better.  Chicago in 5.

(2) Miami Heat V. (7) New York Knicks

This should be a lot of fun.  Talent all over the court.  Carmelo Anthony has been arguably the best player in the league over the second half of the season, and Tyson Chandler should really dominate the boards and challenge Lebron and DWade at the hoop.  Still, There's nobody that impacts the game as profoundly as James, and I think he's on a mission this year.  Heat in 6.

(3) Indiana Pacers V. (6) Orlando Magic

It's simple, there's just no way Orlando does anything without Dwight Howard.  Indiana gets a free pass into the second round.  Pacers in 4.

(4) Boston Celtics V. (5) Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks did it again! Piled up wins in the regular season only to be bounced by a poised, smarter team in the postseason.  The Celtics defense has been stifling since the all star break and the emergence of Avery Bradley has made a big impact.  Celtics in 6.

(1) San Antonio Spurs V. (8) Utah Jazz

Things didn't turn out well for the Spurs last year when they achieved the top seed, but I don't see that happening again.  With Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson the Jazz have the size to bother the Spurs, and should steal a game or two at home, but they won't win the series.  Spurs in 5. 

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder V. (7) Dallas Mavericks

The Thunder are no longer an inexperienced playoff team, and I think Dallas is on its last legs for this year.  The Thunder will run them out of the gym and the series early.  Thunder in 5.

(3) LA Lakers V. (6) Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are the type of team that could bother LA.  Their young, deep, and athletic, but they don't have a go to scorer which matters in the playoffs, and they will struggle in the more half-court style of the postseason.  Denver also has no match for Bynum and Gasol, but who does?  Kobe is rested and the Lakers finally have speed at point guard to counteract the likes of Ty Lawson.  It will be a struggle but the Lakers win.  Lakers in 6.  

(4) Memphis Grizzlies V. (5) LA Clippers

This is the best series of the first round maybe along with the Heat-Knicks.  The Grizzlies are really tough inside with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, but the Clips counter with Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin.  Rudy Gay has no match on the Clippers, but Chris Paul is the best player in the series.  Then there are countless good role players on both sides: Nick Young, Caron Butler, Mo Williams and Randy Foye for LA.  OJ Mayo, Mike Conley, Tony Allen, and Marreese Speights for the Grizzlies.  I Might be nuts here but I think Super-Stars are the difference in the playoffs, so I'll take Chris Paul to find a way.  Clippers in 6. 

2011 NBA Playoffs: #3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #4 Oklahoma City Thunder

Veteran experience versus youth: that’s how this series will be framed.  Though that characterization isn’t off base, it might be a bit overstated.  Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, and Peja Stojakvic have certainly seen their share of wars in the playoffs, and though some have even made it to the Finals, none has a ring.

Meanwhile the Thunder boasts two 22-year-old superstars, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  James Harden and Serge Ibaka, the Thunder’s third- and fourth-leading scorers, respectively, are both 21.  Yes they’re young, but these guys have played basketball their whole lives and have played in some pretty big NBA games in their young careers.

Oklahoma City’s six-game war against the defending and eventual champion Lakers last year was about as good an experience as a young team could ask for.  Durant and company played toe-to-toe with the best team of the NBA’s last four years, very nearly beat them. This year they dispatched a very talented Nuggets team, and then defeated a Memphis team with a completely different style in a bruising seven games.  Kendrick Perkins also brings loads of championship experience to the table, having won a title and battled deep into the post-season the past three years with Boston.

Yes, they have less experience than Dallas, but experience never once put the ball in the hoop.  Talent does that, and OKC is loaded with talent.

The main problem for Dallas is who guards Kevin Durant.  It can’t be Nowitzki because (1) he’s not athletic enough, and (2) he’s the Mavericks superstar who can’t afford to wear himself out on defense.   If you’re thinking Peja could do the job, stop reading right now and go back to watching Desperate Housewives; you know nothing about sports.  Shawn Marion is an option I guess, but he isn’t near the athlete he once was.  And at only 6’7”, he will give up 3 or 4 inches to Durant, a man with a lethal jump shot.  The only other option on the roster is Corey Brewer who’s averaged only 4 minutes per game thus far in the playoffs.

A bigger problem, if you can believe it, is how will the Mavs stop Russell Westbrook?  Jason Kidd is 17 years older than Westbrook and might be the league’s least athletic point guard.  Westbrook will live in the lane in this series and find dunks and layups for his self, Ibaka, and Perkins, and three’s for Harden, Durant, and Daequan Cook.  JJ Barea is a quick, young player, but he doesn’t have the size, strength, or acceleration to stick anywhere near Westbrook.  Terry better not draw the Westbrook assignment because like Dirk he can’t afford to get worn out defensively, nor could he handle the assignment athletically.

On the other end of the floor, if there is one player in the world that can make Dirk work for his points, it’s Durant.  At 6’10” and with insanely long arms, he can bother Nowitzki’s jumper like few others can.  He also has the quickness and speed of a shooting guard so Dirk won’t be able to take him off the dribble.  Serge Ibaka is also athletic enough to check him, and Kendrick Perkins will be way too much for Nowitzki if he decides to move down low in the post.

The Mavs should have the edge in terms of bench production with glorified starter Jason Terry, who plays the second most minutes of any Maverick player.  He has to be a consistent scorer in this series, because if not, the Mavs may not have enough punch to keep up with the superstar duo of Durant and Westbrook, who have combined to score 53 points per game thus far in the playoffs.

At the same time, the Thunder also has a number of good options to defend Terry, the Mavs’ second best offensive option.  Westbrook could certainly handle the duties, as could Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, and reserve guards Daequan Cook and Eric Maynor.  Every single one of those defenders is bigger, longer, and more athletic than Terry.

I’ve talked a lot about matchups, and while I believe that’s an important aspect of the game, how well each team executes their gameplan is also vital.  On paper, the Lakers had huge matchup advantages against Dallas, but the Mavs executed to perfection, working every small hole in the LA armor until it was a gaping chasm.

The Mavericks share the ball, they shoot the lights out from three, and they’re deep.  Nine men have gotten regular minutes in these playoffs for Dallas, and only Nowitzki plays anywhere close to 40 minutes per game.  You can argue that after Dirk, it’s hard to count on a sure second scorer, but in part that’s by design.  Dallas’ number one option is Nowitzki; their number two option is the open man.   Kidd, Stojakovic, Terry, and Nowitzki are all lethal when their open from three point range, and if they get hot, they can bury a team quickly.

Meanwhile, the Thunder are built largely on athleticism, tempo, and size.  Russell Westbrook is the most athletic point guard in the league outside maybe Derrick Rose.  Ibaka is a 6’10” shot blocking machine (4 per game in the playoffs) that can also run like a gazelle.  Perkins, Nick Collison, and Nazr Mohammed round out a long and tough, though offensively limited, post rotation.  Durant is also 6’10”, and much like Nowitzki, nearly impossible to guard.

Unfortunately for Dallas, I think the Thunder are so much more athletic and so much stronger/physical in the post that even with great execution they’ll be in trouble.  Yes the Mavs got innumerable wide open looks against LA, but the Lakers are a slower team that played lazy and flat.  The Thunder are the most athletic and energetic team in the league; that will happen when your top four players are all under 22 years of age.

I feel like athletically the Thunder have the ability to challenge everything Dallas wants to do, and on the flip side Dallas has virtually no answer for the two guys OKC relies on most.  Throw in the fact that the Thunder should dominate the boards (they’re 7 rebounds per game better than Dallas on average), win the transition game, and has the younger legs.  Too much weighs against Dallas.

I was wrong about the Mavericks last series, but against the similarly veteran Lakers, they were able to find open shots, get in the lane, and make transition baskets.  I can’t see that happening against the most athletic team in the league, the Thunder.

The Mavs will have home court and will have games where they shoot the lights out, but in the words of Charles Barkley, “You never live by the three.  In the long run you only die by it.”  The Thunder are simply too physically imposing for Dallas to win this series.  

Prediction: Thunder in 6

--from Adam

2011 NBA Playoffs: Second Round Picks

#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks

It’s time to get over the fact that Atlanta actually won a series.  They’re here, and they have a shot at giving Chicago a run for their money.  Carlos Boozer is a good player, but he’s always going to be undersized at the power forward position and struggled against the bigger Pacers in the first round.  Zaza Pachulia and Jason Collins aren’t great talents, but they are serviceable 7-footers that will clog the lane, snatch rebounds, and make life difficult for Boozer and Joakim Noah.  Add in the talented combo of Al Horford and mega athlete Josh Smith, and the Hawks have an imposing four man post rotation.  Derrick Rose is going to be the best player in the series, but Hawks guard Kirk Hinrich used to share the backcourt with Rose and is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, so he could have a favorable matchup.  Marvin Williams has underachieved, but he is a very good athletic match with Bulls swingman Luol Deng.  Jamal Crawford is going to be the x-factor for this whole series.  Capable of averaging 25 points over the course of a series, he will shoot from anywhere on the floor.  Crawford, Joe Johnson, Smith, and Horford is probably a more talented scoring group then Rose, Deng, Boozer, and Noah.  Atlanta also has more playoff experience than the younger Bulls.  As you can see, the matchups are really in Atlanta’s favor, and overall the Hawks might be the more talented team.  Where Atlanta has always struggled is giving effort each night and committing on the defensive end.  The Bulls never waver on defense or effort, so even if their offense disappears, they still stay in games.  Chicago got a wake up call from the scrappy Pacers, and though the Hawks are a more talented foe than Indiana, Chicago’s focus, style, and coaching will be enough to guide them to the East Finals.

Prediction: Bulls in 7

#2 Miami Heat vs. #3 Boston Celtics

Throughout the regular season Boston maintained a mental edge over Miami, but now they don’t have their most imposing figure, Kendrick Perkins.  And after blowing out Boston in their last meeting, Miami certainly gained some confidence.  Still, Rajon Rondo is going to dominate the point guard battle with Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers.  Paul Pierce and Ray Allen won’t match the production of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, but if they can come close, that will be enough.  Kevin Garnett and Chris Bosh should cancel each other out; both are thin framed, jump shooting bigs.  Even minus Perkins, Boston has the edge inside with Glen Davis, Jeff Green, Jermaine O’Neal, Nenad Kristic, and Garnett.  That collection of forwards should thoroughly outplay Zydrunas Illgauskas, Bosh, Juwan Howard, and Joel Anthony.  With the point guard and pivot play favoring Boston, James and Wade will have to seriously dominate Pierce and Allen, and with the way Boston defends, I don’t think they will.  Boston will win the rebounding battle and thus be able to turn this into a half court series.  Neither team is great in the half court, but I trust Boston to execute better, especially in the clutch.  If James and Wade are jump shooters all series, the Heat can’t win.

Prediction: Boston in 6

#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #3 Dallas Mavericks

Considering the perennial success of both these teams, it comes as a surprise that Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki have never faced each other in a playoff series.  Dallas proved their worth by beating a tough Portland team in round one, and while LA started slowly, they easily rolled over an undermanned Hornets squad.  In terms of matchups, Dallas just isn’t constructed to give the Lakers issues.  What traditionally confounds LA are a quick, penetrating point guard and size to battle the Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom trio. Jason Kidd is not exactly that dynamic point guard, and Jason Terry, who provides scoring off the bench, doesn’t get in the lane.  Rodrigue Beaubois, the one player for Dallas that might be able to cause problems with his speed, has been out all postseason with a foot injury.  The Mavs also don’t really have a guy capable of making Bryant uncomfortable.  Shawn Marion’s best days are certainly behind him, and he’s a liability on offense.  Conversely, Peja Stojakovic couldn’t guard a statue, though he provides three point shooting.  DeShawn Stevenson doesn’t play very much but could guard Kobe when he sees the floor.  The problem there is that Stevenson isn’t a smart defender.  He tends to go for head fakes, overplay his man, and commit silly fouls.  Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler, especially Chandler, provide adequate length, shot blocking, and rebounding to battle with Gasol, Bynum, and Odom, but they won’t score much at all.  Gasol, Odom, Ron Artest, and Matt Barnes off the bench can all bring a different element guarding Nowitzki; he will have to work for his points.  Basically, Dallas has nobody to stop Bryant, and LA has multiple guys capable of frustrating Nowitzki.  Add to that the Lakers’ skill inside and quality depth, and this should be a one-sided series.

Prediction: Lakers in 5

#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies

It’s just a bad joke that the Thunder is a 4 seed.  They are on par with the Lakers, Heat, Bulls, and Celtics as championship favorites, and I expect them to prove their excellence again against Memphis.  Don’t get me wrong, Memphis can play, and they’ll make life hard for OKC, but the Thunder just have more guns to fire than the Grizzlies do.  Zach Randolph is a tremendous player, but he’s the third best player in this series behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  Additionally, Randolph will have his work cut out, posting against the best one-on-one pivot defender in the NBA, Kendrick Perkins.  Add the shot blocking of Serge Ibaka, the length of Nazr Mohammed, and the size/energy of Nick Collison, and the Thunder will have plenty of options to throw at Randolph and Marc Gasol.  In the half-court though, Memphis will have some advantages.  The Thunder have no post player capable of providing reliable scoring, whereas Randolph is as efficient as it gets on the low block, and Gasol is a pretty adept offensive player that shoots at a great percentage.  Durant may find operating in the half-court difficult as well with the tremendous defender, Shane Battier, shadowing him for most of the game.  Strong and athletic swing-man Sam Young may also cover Durant adequately.  Westbrook is impossible to stay in front of, but Mike Conley, OJ Mayo, and Tony Allen is as good a group as possible for trying to slow him down.  I think both defenses in this series will control the game, but ultimately Durant and Westbrook will have a little easier time against their defenders than Randolph and Gasol will have against the vicious combo of Perkins and Ibaka.  Mayo and Conley have to score well in this series to support Randolph and to give the Grizzlies any chance.  On the other hand, Durant and Westbrook are assured of scoring, and if James Harden can up his level of play, this could be a quick series.

Prediction: Thunder in 6
 

--from Adam

2011 NBA Playoffs: First Round Recap

Chicago Bulls over Indiana Pacers in 5

Three of the Pacers’ four losses in this series came by 5, 6, and 4 points respectively, in other words, three defeats by 15 total points.  Indiana was the better team for long stretches of this series, but Derrick Rose took over at the end of every game, and he was the difference.  Going forward, if you’re a Bulls fan, you worry that Rose needs more help on the offensive end.  At times during this past series, he looked like the only Bull with confidence shooting the ball.  Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng must produce more consistently.  The Pacers can take a lot of positives from this experience.  They really could have sent this series to 7 games, Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert looked like good NBA starters, Danny Granger played like he’s capable of being a leader on a playoff team, and Tyler Hansbrough had some terrific stretches.  In the end, Rose was the best player in the series, and he was the narrow difference in nearly every game.

Miami Heat over Philadelphia 76ers in 5

There really wasn’t much to this series.  Most games were relatively close, save for one Heat blowout in Game 2, and Philly stole one game while they were at home.  In the end though, the Sixers didn’t have a single player as good as any of the Heat’s top-3 guys.  Now we’ll see if Boston’s decline—precipitated by trading Kendrick Perkins—has brought them down enough to the Heat’s level.

Boston Celtics sweep New York Knicks in 4

The Knicks should have won Game 1, and if they could’ve figured out how to foul, could have won Game 2.  After those two back-breaking loses the series was pretty much over, especially with various injuries suffered by Chauncey Billups and Amare Stoudemire.  Carmelo Anthony was great, averaging 26, 10, and 5.  He did everything he could, but against a superior opponent, it wasn’t enough.  Still, you see why New York gave up so much for Anthony: he can dominate the 4th quarter of playoff games and is always a clutch shot maker.  The Knicks will retool around their big three with a better supporting cast and could be a championship contender next year.

Atlanta Hawks over Orlando Magic in 6

I’m shocked by this result only because I thought the Hawks had mentally checked out earlier in the season.  Certainly Atlanta has talent to play with nearly any team; Jamal Crawford, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Al Horford is about as good a foursome as exists in the league.  In the past however, Atlanta has been consistently inconsistent and just hasn’t played smart basketball.  I thought that Dwight Howard would be enough for the Magic to win this series, but I didn’t expect his teammates to absolutely disappear.  Even averaging 27 points and 16 rebounds a game wasn’t enough from Howard to overcome the suddenly streaking Hawks.

Los Angeles Lakers over New Orleans Hornets in 6

It was harder than anyone predicted, but the champs survive and advance.  We’ve seen LA struggle against scrappy, quick, and feisty teams before like the 2009 Rockets and last year’s Thunder.  Generally a quick, talented point guard spells trouble for the Lakers, which is what the Hornets have in Chris Paul.  What was different about this matchup was that the smaller post players of New Orleans gave LA fits, Carl Landry was able to drive around Pau Gasol anytime he wanted, Aaron Gray’s big body was vital to the Hornets’ success, and Emeka Okafor was solid.  Gasol and Lamar Odom were terrible for much of this series, but Derek Fisher and Ron Artest stepped up their scoring big-time.  Kobe Bryant produced well enough, but just like last year’s first round against the Thunder, he looked to be playing his way into a playoff rhythm.  The Hornets have to be pleased with their level of play, considering that they have one star and a collection of role players.  Besides Paul, New Orleans may not have a player who would start on any of the elite teams in the league.  Trevor Ariza proved he could be a reliable scoring option, maybe a third scorer on a championship level team.  Chris Paul was flat-out unbelievable, single-handedly winning games in this series, getting in the lane at will, and seemingly always making the correct decisions.  The Lakers tried to guard him with Bryant, Steve Blake, Fisher, Shannon Brown, and even Artest; nothing worked.  Paul’s stats for the series were immaculate–22 points, 11 assists, and 7 rebounds.

Dallas Mavericks over Portland Trail Blazers in 6

Looks like all those (including myself) who thought Portland would be too tough for Dallas were dead wrong.  Even when the series was tied at two games apiece, the Mavs always seemed in control.  Tyson Chandler proved to be enough of a force in the lane to allow Dirk Nowitzki to do his thing—27 points and 8 rebounds per game.  Dallas shared the ball, shot well, and played solid defense.  They were just the more seasoned, ready team in this series.  Next comes a huge challenge against the Lakers.

Oklahoma City Thunder over Denver Nuggets in 5

Is it possible to lose a series in 5 games and prove that you are a really good team?  If so, both the Pacers and the Nuggets did just that.  Three of Denver’s losses came by a combined 10 points, but in the end, their downfall was what many thought it would be.  Denver did not have a single player that could close down a game, a guy that can create something out of nothing, and everyone on the team knows, “this is our guy.”  The Thunder has two of those types of guys in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and that was the slim difference in the series.

The Memphis Grizzlies lead the San Antonio Spurs 3-2; look for a recap after the series wraps.

--from Adam

2011 NBA Playoffs: First Round Picks

#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers

Indiana doesn’t even have what you would call a "puncher's chance" in this series.  The Pacers don’t do anything exceedingly well, and they don’t have major star power to carry them through tough stretches.  A lack of experience is the only knock on the Bulls, but at least they made the playoffs last year, and new Bull Carlos Boozer brings a fair share of postseason familiarity as well.  Most of Indiana’s roster has never even appeared in a playoff game.  While the Pacers are a young and athletic team with some decent talent—Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, Darren Collison—those players aren’t household names for a reason.  I look for Chicago to clamp down defensively and make quick work of the over-matched Pacers.

Prediction: Bulls in 4

#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers and Heat play a similar brand of basketball: up-tempo, transition-oriented, lots of athletes on the floor.  You can look at those similarities in one of two ways.  Playing a similar style means either the 76ers will matchup well against Miami, or it will play right into the Heat’s hands.  I tend to think that when two teams play the same style, the better team is obviously more adept at that particular style.  The Heat are clearly more talented than the 76ers, and letting LeBron James and Dwyane Wade out in transition is deadly for any opponent.  The 76ers are in a conundrum because they won’t be able to score in a half-court game, and if they try to speed the pace up, Miami might run them off the floor.  Philly just doesn’t have the type of personnel that can give the Heat problems.  Elton Brand is a decent low post scorer, but at only 6’8” and getting on in years, he won’t be too much of a handful for Chris Bosh, Joel Anthony, or Zydrunas Ilgauskas.  Outside of Brand, the 76ers have virtually no one capable of punishing the Heat where they’re weak, in the post.  Andre Iguodala is a great athlete, but he doesn’t have a jumper or a mid-range game.  Ditto for Thaddeus Young.  I think Philly might squeak one game out in this series because they will have the athletes to guard James and Wade.  Ultimately though, they just won’t have enough scoring punch to keep up with the James gang.

Prediction: Heat in 5

#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks

This is definitely the East’s most intriguing first round matchup, if only for the cumulative star power of both teams.  Boston’s newfound weakness in the post has been well documented, but the Knicks don’t really have the personnel to exploit it.  Sure Amare Stoudemire is a great player, but he’s a finesse guy who doesn’t rebound or defend particularly well.  Outside of Stoudemire, the Knicks have been throwing out Shelden Williams, Shawne Williams, and Ronnie Turiaf to fill the pivot positions.  Combined those three players average just 14 points and 10 rebounds per game.  Even Boston will be able to pound this team in the paint.  Chauncey Billups will make his share of big shots, but he won’t be able to defend the much quicker Rajon Rondo.  Carmelo Anthony will score, but Boston will make him take a lot of shots to get his points.  Ray Allen and Paul Pierce will more than offset the production of Anthony, Kevin Garnett should be able to check Stoudemire, and Rondo will outduel Billups.  Basically, the big four of Boston will at least match the Knicks' big three, and the Celtics' superior depth will take care of the rest.  New York has talent to be sure and could rob a game or two from Boston, but they just aren’t a complete enough team to win this series.

Prediction: Celtics in 6

#4 Orlando Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks

I don’t have a whole lot of love for either one of these teams, but Orlando should be favored in this matchup.  The Hawks have five good players—Joe Johnson, Al Horford, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, and Marvin Williams—but not a single great one.  Johnson is a star in name only; he wasn’t able to lead this Hawks squad to anything more than mediocrity all year.  While Horford is solid, he is going to be completely overmatched by Dwight Howard.  Howard will be the best player in this series by a mile, and his teammates are good enough to provide ample scoring support.  Horford and Josh Smith won’t be able to score inside, meaning Atlanta will have to rely increasingly on the three point shot.  Howard will control the boards and challenge every shot in the paint.  The Hawks also will suffer because they have essentially zero home court advantage.  This year it wasn’t uncommon for fans of the Lakers, Celtics, Magic or Heat to outnumber Hawks fans in Atlanta’s arena.  The Hawks may steal a game or two if Howard gets in foul trouble or if they get hot from the three point line.  In the end though, Howard is the best player in this series, and that will be the difference.

Prediction: Magic in 6

#1 San Antonio Spurs vs #8 Memphis Grizzlies

Losing All Star Rudy Gay for the season was the death blow for any big dreams the Grizzlies had.  Gay and Zach Randolph made for a dynamic forward duo that could score with anyone.  Now Randolph will have to shoulder most of the load, as the Grizzlies next highest scorer is point guard Mike Conley, who nets just 14 points per game.  OJ Mayo is a confounding player; he averaged 18 points per game through his first two seasons, but only 11 this year.  He needs to step up if Memphis wants to do anything.  The Spurs rested their veterans a ton down the stretch and still secured the number one seed out West.  They might not be as sharp as they would like, but they’ll be healthy and can play their way into a rhythm against the inferior Grizzlies.  Tim Duncan will see more minutes in the playoffs, although Marc Gasol will be a big body to compete with.  Tony Parker easily wins the point guard matchup against Conley.  Manu Ginobli has moved from his familiar sixth man role in previous years to the starting lineup this season and excelled.  He’s always big come playoff time, though his sprained elbow has him listed as doubtful for Game One.  He should be back at least by Game Three, and playing at home for the first two contests of the series the Spurs should be fine without him.  San Antonio has five guys that score in double figures—Duncan, Parker, Ginoblie, Richard Jefferson, and George Hill—and five more guys that play a significant role—DeJaun Blair, Tiago Splitter, Gary Neal, Matt Bonner, and Antonio McDyess.  The Grizzlies have similar depth but not nearly as much talent or experience.  Finally, Spurs' coach, Gregg Popovich, is as good as it gets in the NBA.  I can’t see the newbie Grizzlies taking even one game from the finely tuned Spurs.

Prediction: Spurs in 4

#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets

As a Laker fan, this was exactly the matchup I was hoping for in the first round.  Even if Andrew Bynum needed some extra rest, the Lakers could cruise through this series without him.  The Hornets' second best player, David West, recently went down for the year with an ACL tear.  West was their leading scorer, now Chris Paul, who averaged just 16 points per game during the year, takes that mantle.  Usually really talented point guards give the Lakers fits, but Paul hasn’t been fully healthy all year, and even if he goes crazy, he won’t have enough help to make this a series.  After Paul, the Hornets don’t have any one that scores more than 12 points per game.  That’s not going to get it done against the potent Lake Show.  Also, size is going to be a huge factor in this series.  The 6’9” Carl Landry and Emeka Okafor at 6’10” are the Hornets' starting big men.  They will be completely over-matched by the Lakers' pair of 7-footers in Pau Gasol and Bynum.  Throw in the versatile 6’10” Lamar Odom, and LA should absolutely dominate the paint.  We saw all year that the Lakers were the best team in the league if they were focused.  They’ll be focused for the playoffs and I think they’ll steamroll New Orleans.  And after all this I still haven't mentioned that the Lakers happen to have a guy named Kobe Bryant.

Prediction: Lakers in 4

#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trailblazers

All week I’ve been itching to see if this matchup would occur, and it has.  So many prognosticators have said that Portland has a really good shot to upset Dallas, and I agree.  Dallas and Portland split their four meetings during the year, however Dallas won twice when they had Caron Butler and the Blazers didn’t have newly acquired Gerald Wallace.  Since Butler went down and Wallace came aboard for Portland, the Blazers have beaten Dallas twice.  The thing that is so drastically different about the playoffs is that over the course of a seven-game series, teams are able to make adjustments and take away their opponents’ biggest strengths.  Teams have time to focus on just one opponent and really hone in on how to best approach that matchup.  Dallas has always thrived in the regular season because in one-game situations; they are good enough to outscore a lot of teams.  All this is a way of saying I think Portland has the personnel to really limit Dirk Nowitzki over the course of a series.  Having multiple long and athletic players to throw at Dirk is always important, and that’s exactly what the Blazers have.  Wallace, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Marcus Camby all bring different elements to the table, and all are capable of guarding Nowitzki.  They also have a great coach in Nate McMillan, who will have a sound gameplan in place.  If Nowitzki is limited or has to work a ton to get his points, Dallas will struggle.  The Mavs second leading scorer is aging sixth man Jason Terry, who is a streak shooter you can’t always rely on.  Beyond Terry and Dirk, ancient Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, and Peja Stojakovic join youngsters Rodrigue Beaubois and JJ Barea as the Mavs' main supporting players.  All those role players are either too limited by age or inexperience to be big factors in this series.  Another way of saying that is, Dirk Nowitzki might be the best player in this series, but Portland has the next three or four best players in LaMarcus Aldridge, Gerald Wallace, Wes Matthews, and Andre Miller.  Portland is much more athletic than Dallas on the wings with Wallace, Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and Rudy Fernandez matching up against Marion, Stojakovic and DeShawn Stevenson.  Inside, Aldridge, Wallace, and Camby will battle Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler, and Brendan Haywood to about an even draw.  Miller is certainly an old dog in this game, but he’ll be matched up with an even grayer beard in Kidd and should win that matchup all series.  Ultimately the superior athleticism, depth, and favorable matchups lead to Portland's upset of the playoff soft Mavericks.

Prediction: Trail Blazers in 6

#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Denver Nuggets

There’s no question that Denver became a better team after trading Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups.  The Nuggets are now deep, young, athletic, and unselfish.  Looking at the matchups in this series is really interesting.  Kendrick Perkins and Nene both are big-bodied players who aren’t afraid to bang in the paint and should have a great battle all series.  Perkins, Serge Ibaka, Nazr Mohammed, and Nick Collison will have their hands full battling Nene, Al Harrington, Danilo Gallinari, Kenyon Martin, and Chris Andersen in the post.  Denver also has an assortment of athletic and long wing players to throw at Kevin Durant.  Wilson Chandler, JR Smith, Gallinari, and Aaron Afflalo, if healthy, are all capable of checking Durant for stretches, though I would think Chandler will see the most time on him.  Russell Westbrook is a flatout star at point guard, but perhaps no team has as much of a fighting chance to slow him down as Denver.  Between Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton, the Nuggets have a ton of speed at point guard to defend Westbrook and make him work when Denver has the ball.  The Nuggets are the deeper team in this series as they can play up to ten players without much of a drop off.  The Thunder really only have eight main rotation guys, nine if you include Collison.  I love what the Nuggets have done this year, and I really enjoy the way they play.  In the end, though, I can’t pick against the Thunder because they have the two best players in the series—Westbrook and Durant.  The playoffs usually come down to who executes better in the half-court, and I give a slight edge there to OKC.

Prediction: Thunder in 7

--from Adam

Catch and Shoot: Trade Deadline

I want to talk about a big trade that went down in the NBA a few weeks back, one we haven't covered yet.  And it’s Goran Dragic to the Rockets.  Just kidding.  It was the trade of Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson from Boston in return for Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic from the Thunder.

Impact on the Celtics: I hate, repeat hate this trade for Boston.  Yeah, Jeff Green is a nice player, but he’s just a guy.  He isn’t going to be a huge difference maker, especially on a team with so many offensive options.  He doesn’t fit Boston’s offensive scheme either; he’s not a spot-up shooter so he doesn’t fit great with the penetrating Rajon Rondo, and he doesn’t really have a back to the basket game.  Green really occupies the same role that Kevin Garnett does as a face up shooting forward, but he isn’t nearly as effective.  While he might turn into a nice piece for Boston down the road, you don’t think long term when the ultimate prize is within reach right now.  Green does a lot of different things well, but isn’t great at any one thing.  He’s undersized for power forward and doesn’t have enough handle or scoring ability for the small forward slot.  He only gets 6 rebounds a game, and certainly won’t be able to protect the rim or bang with opposing centers, which is exactly what Kendrick Perkins did do for Boston.  Perkins’ numbers weren’t as good as Green’s, but his impact was much larger.  I realize Boston didn’t have him for most of this year, but he has been integral in their previous playoff runs.  As maybe the best one-on-one post defender in the NBA, Perkins is strong enough to hold up at the point of attack against Andrew Bynum or Dwight Howard.  Now who fills that role for Boston?  Garnett doesn’t have the body, and Jermaine O’Neal is always injured and can barely move at this point in his career anyway.  Shaquille O’Neal is enormous but has hardly been on the floor this year and can’t log major minutes in the playoffs (even if he could play a lot he’s too slow to stay with anyone).  Glen Davis has a wide body, but at 6’8” opposing bigs shoot right over him, and Nenad Kristic is a stiff.  Boston’s calling card, their biggest advantage, is their defense, and in many ways Perkins was its anchor.  Now they’ve forfeited that advantage for a guy that will come off the bench for Garnett or Paul Pierce.  This trade must make the Heat ecstatic.  Now Chris Bosh can enjoy a little more freedom in the post and won’t endure as much punishment.  Bosh can also now take Garnett away from the rim and allow LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to drive to the hoop against the likes of Davis, Green, and maybe Shaq.  Bad, bad move Boston.

Impact on the Thunder: I love the move for Oklahoma City.  They had nobody in the post for the last two years, and their lack of size was probably the biggest weakness of any team considered a major contender.  Perkins isn’t a scorer, but he’s going to grab a bunch of rebounds, eliminate most people he guards, and dump in 8-10 points with high percentage shooting.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are going to carry the scoring load for this team, which made the tweener Green expendable.  Green has plateaued as a player, and it was time for the Thunder to cash him out for a valuable return.  The Thunder don’t need much more offensively than their dynamic duo, so what they did was grab a defensive specialist and overall post presence.  In a separate deal the Thunder also acquired center Nazr Mohammed for Morris Peterson and D.J. White, two stiffs (I just like that word right now).  The Thunder gain two guys who aren’t going to score much, but have the length and bulk to battle the Lakers, Spurs, and Mavericks in the West.  Add uber-athlete and shot blocker extraordinaire Serge Ibaka, and the Thunder boast maybe the best defensive frontcourt in basketball.  Ibaka has the athleticism to come from the weakside and challenge shots, while Perkins will use his body to wear out opposing centers.  Keep in mind that Durant is a 6’10” small forward.  Put it all together and this should be a very strong rebounding team moving forward.  The Thunder did lose some scoring in this deal, and they may be an offseason acquisition away from being a Finals-worthy team, but I think they made a wonderful move to change the team dynamic.  If Nate Robinson can be a guy that can consistently score 10-12 points off the bench, then this deal is even more of a slam dunk.

Recap: Bad Boston!!  Good Oklahoma City!!

--from Adam