AFC East: 2011 Division Preview

New England Patriots
 

It seems weird to say because the New England Patriots have played at such a high level over the past few years, but this team hasn’t won the Super Bowl in six seasons, and that’s a disappointment.  Even last year, after rolling to a 14-2 record the usually clutch Pats failed to get it done in the playoffs.  It’s high time for Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and company to get back to football’s biggest stage.
 

A stable of talent surrounds the ever all-world Brady: Deion Branch, Wes Welker, second year tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, young guns Brandon Tate and Taylor Price, plus the high profile Chad Ochocinco.  Branch, Welker, Ochocinco, and the tight end duo provide Brady with the great chain-moving, middle-of-the-field targets he covets, while Tate and Price have the speed to stretch defenses vertically.  Brady loves to use multiple targets, and he’ll have as many weapons as ever heading into 2011.
 

Finally getting a long-term deal done with top flight guard Logan Mankins solidifies an offensive line that already boasts excellent players Matt Light, Dan Koppen, and Stephen Neal as well as up-and-comers Sebastian Vollmer and rookie Nate Solder.  Deep and talented, New England’s offensive line will more than ably give Brady time to pick apart defenses.
 

Running back-by-committee will again be the strategy this year in New England.  The committee will just be a bit larger with rookies Shane Vareen and Stevan Ridley joining the stable of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Kevin Faulk.
 

On defense the Pats may finally be turning into the perfect blend of youth and experience.  Old pros on the defensive line Shaun Ellis and Vince Wilfork join young studs Jerod Mayo, Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Cunninghanm, Gary Guyton, and Brandon Spikes to form a front seven with both savvy and speed.
 

Adding Albert Haynesworth is low-risk/high-reward since they gave up virtually nothing to acquire the moody big man.  If he flops, the damage is minimal.  I like how New England uses countless alignments, so I expect they will find a way to maximize Fat Albert.
 

Pat Chung and Brandon Meriweather form one of the best young safety duos in football, both capable of ball hawking and making open field tackles.  With the first pick of the second round the Pats drafted physical corner Ras-I Dowling, who could make an impact at one of the Pats few weak points.  Dowling, Darius Butler, and Devin McCourty have a chance to make up a really nice trio of cover men.
 

If the Pats can generate more pass rush between the addition of Haynesworth and the growth of Cunningham and Dunlap, they could again be a dominant defense.  Add in an offense with an versatile array of backs and pass catchers, and you can see why this is Hill 364’s consensus pick for AFC Champion.
 

Biggest Strengths: The men at the top, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: New England must improve its pass rush, and though they’ve made it work in the past, an offense without a true feature back puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in AFC East
 

New York Jets
 

Rex Ryan’s bunch may have spent too much time drooling over Nhamdi Asoumgha and not enough time working to plug other holes on their roster.  Losing out on Asoughma in the end, the New York Jets did little to improve a team that has been on the cusp of the Super Bowl two years running.
 

If Mark Sanchez doesn’t take a quantum leap this year and become a top-10 passer in the league, this offense could really struggle considering all it lost.  Gone are the jack-of-all-trades Brad Smith, now with division rival Buffalo; the talented Braylon Edwards, who now calls San Francisco home; and Jerricho Cotchery, who went to Pittsburgh.  Picking up Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason may seem like nice moves on paper, but 32- and 37-year-old receivers usually don’t tip a team over the Super Bowl precipice.
 

Shonn Greene has big time ability at running back, but he may have to become a superstar overnight for this offense to really produce.  LaDanian Tomlinson had a nice resurgence last year, but the 32-year-old running back faded fast down the stretch.  How much does he have left in those legs for this season?
 

All-Pros D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold make up an excellent core of an offensive line, and Brandon Moore is a sound player at guard.  Right tackle and the other guard spot are less solid, but the overall unit is very good.
 

Although the Jets are famous for their blitzing defensive style, they don’t have any great, singular pass rushers.  Probably their best pure rusher, Calvin Pace had just 5.5 sacks in twelve games last year.  Nose tackle Kris Jenkins has retired after multiple knee injuries, and now their defensive line is populated by rookies and unspectacular veterans.  The strength of the front comes in the form of linebackers Bart Scott, who is aging, and David Harris, yet neither is much of a sack artist.
 

What make the Jets defense go are their cornerbacks, where Darelle Revis is the best in the business when healthy.  Opposite Revis the Jets re-signed Antonio Cromartie, who is great in man-to-man coverage but struggles making tackles and takes too many risks.  Last year’s first-round pick Kyle Wilson should push for more time on the field as a nickel and sometimes starting corner this year.
 

Ultimately, the season is going to ride on Sanchez’ development, because a lot of weapons walked out the door and the defense didn’t land the big prize it was hoping to.  After reaching back-to-back AFC Championship Games, this team seems poised to take at least a small step back.
 

Biggest Strengths: Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie may be the best cornerback duo in football, and the offensive line is among the league's elite as well.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Lack of weapons on offense, and lack of talent in the front seven.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC East
 

Miami Dolphins
 

Everyone seems to despise the Miami Dolphins’ Chad Henne, and I’m not here to sing his praises, but he’s produced at about the same level as Mark Sanchez without as much talent around him.  Last year Sanchez posted a 75.3 passer rating, Henne a 75.4, but the media is a powerful tool and has made a star of Sanchez before he’s actually become one.  Of course I realize Henne’s teams have been hovering around .500 and Sanchez has been to two-straight AFC Title Games, but in terms of quarterback production alone, the difference is pretty minimal.
 

Unfortunately for Henne, both members of a formerly dynamic backfield—Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams—have left town, and now it looks as though scatback Reggie Bush will be asked to be a feature back, something everyone but Reggie Bush seems to know he’s not capable of.
 

With the running game in trouble, even more pressure will be heaped on Henne, especially with the Dolphin fan-base up in arms that management balked on a potential trade for veteran signal caller Kyle Orton.
 

On the bright side, Henne will have superstar Brandon Marshall to throw to, and I would imagine Marshall will see more targets than just about any other receiver in the league.  Anthony Fasano is a reliable pass-catching tight end but not the type of player that defenses really have to gameplan for.

Jake Long is one of the best left tackles in the game, Vernon Carey is solid at guard, and if Mike Pouncey is anything like his brother, the Dolphins should be set at center, but there are still holes along the offensive line.
 

Miami really only has one guy, Marshall, that is going to scare defenses, and any defense can take away one guy.  A lot is going to fall on Henne and Bush, and I don’t believe they are ready to carry the load.
 

Miami is still searching for the right mix of players to lock down its defensive line.  Last year’s first-round pick, Jared Odrick, needs to develop into an impact player before things can come together.   A huge nose tackle, Paul Soliai moves pretty well but doesn’t make enough plays given his size, strength, and athletic ability.
 

Karlos Dansby is a very good linebacker still in his prime at age 29.  Solid tackler Kevin Burnett, who made 95 tackles for the Chargers last year, flanks Dansby, as does sack master Cameron Wake, who came out of nowhere in 2010 to tally 14 quarterback takedowns.  If young linebacker Koa Misi can take a step in his development, add in the return of Jason Taylor as a situational pass rusher and the Dolphins could boast one of the better linebacking groups in football.
 

Vontae Davis has as much athletic ability as anyone and showed it in flashes last year.  If Davis puts it all together—both the mental and the physical aspects of the game—he can be a star cover man.  Opposite Davis is the young Sean Smith, who at 6’3” and 214 pounds has safety size and corner speed.  This could be a very good duo moving forward.  Though aging, safety Yeremiah Bell is very good in run support, tallying over 100 tackles last year.
 

The Miami defense has the pieces to be a top-10 unit, but getting there will depend on young players stepping into leadership roles.  However, the defense will have to be great to provide this team with a shot at the playoffs because offensively it’s pretty much Henne and Marshall vs. the world.
 

Biggest Strengths: Brandon Marshall is an elite wideout, talent abounds in the linebacking corps, and they have a promising young corner duo.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Beyond Marshall, Miami lacks offensive weapons, and the defensive line is a work in progress.
 

Adam’s Predicition: 5-11, Third in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC East
 

Buffalo Bills
 

Yikes.  What else is there to say about a Buffalo Bills team that won just four games last year then in the offseason proceeded to lose their best linebacker (Paul Posluszny) a very good safety (Donte Whitner) and their second-best wide receiver (Lee Evans)?
 

Ryan Fitzpatrick will completely underwhelm you with physical ability, but he is accurate, smart, and he can get the ball out of his hands, which is more to be said than of many other quarterbacks.  He won’t lose games for Buffalo; he just won’t take them over either.
 

CJ Spiller needs to take more carries away from feature back Fred Jackson to make more of a balanced rushing attack, combining Jackson’s power and Spiller’s electric speed.
 

Stevie Johnson proved to be a rising star at receiver a year ago, but he is the lone threat in the receiving corps.
 

Also, the offensive line—for what seems like the fifth year in a row—is under serious reconstruction.
 

Offensively they may be good for a few exciting plays, but they don’t have the consistency up front or the array of weapons to sustain drives and put up points game in and game out.
 

This offseason Buffalo made two strong moves defensively: cutting ties with abject failure Aaron Maybin and drafting nasty defensive lineman Marcel Dareus with the third overall pick.
 

Pairing at defensive tackle, Dareus and Kyle Williams (a Pro Bowl alternate last year) should prove to be the strength of the team, which makes cutting ties with Posluszny and Whitner all the more puzzling.  Having Dareus and Williams anchor the middle of the line, then Posluszny at middle linebacker and Whitner at strong safety would have made the Bills downright formidable against the run, but they chose to let those two high quality players walk.
 

Ex-Packer Nick Barnett will recognize the cold weather in Buffalo, but he won’t be used to all the losing.  He should nicely fill in for Posluszny, but Barnett is five years older and not near the same level of athlete at this point, especially coming off an injury.  Barnett may well be the best the Bills linebacking group has to offer, having Shawne Merriman’s career evaporated before our eyes.
 

Terrence McGee, Leodis McKelvin, and Jarius Byrd make up a very good secondary, certainly the most proven unit on the team, but it certainly won’t be enough to make up for the Bills numerous other deficiencies.
 

This team doesn’t have the weapons, experience, or depth to come anywhere close to tasting playoff glory.
 

Biggest Strengths: The defensive tackle tandem and secondary are the Bills’ lone bright spots.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: They lack an offensive line, receiving options, and linebackers.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 5-11, Fourth in AFC East
 

--from @AdamHocking

NFL Draft Grades 2011: AFC East

Buffalo Bills

The Bills were bad last year, which usually means a changing of the guard at quarterback is in order.  However, incumbent starter Ryan Fitzpatrick had a pretty solid 2010 with an 82 passer rating.  And with no surefire quarterback prospects in this draft, I think staying with Fitzpatrick for at least one more year is the best strategy.

The Bills were dead last stopping the run, so adding the beast Marcel Dareus was a great move with their first pick.  Alabama’s Dareus excelled in the rough and tumble SEC, is a great athlete for his size, and appears to be the strongest player on the field at all times.  At 6’3”, 320 pounds, Dareus is the ideal anchor against the run, and with the Bills playing both 3-4 and 4-3, Dareus provides tremendous versatility.  When you watch a game, Dareus is one of the few players that jumps off the screen.

In the second round the Bills made a slightly curious pick, though they got a quality player.  Aaron Williams (DB, Texas) can play corner or safety and is a talented, physical player.  It’s just that the Bills’ secondary is probably the strength of their team; they ranked 3rd in the league defending the pass in 2010.  Still, the defense was Buffalo’s problem last year, and after getting Dareus, I can’t punish them too much for adding another quality player to that side of the ball.

The pick I really like came in the third round, the linebacker Kelvin Sheppard out of LSU.  With stopping the run such an issue, the Bills added two guys in Dareus and Sheppard that should help turn things around fast.  Sheppard is big at 250 pounds and has good speed and overall athleticism, able to get back and cover tight ends.  He was a leader on his college team.

Management must be expecting to lose some of their secondary, because in the fourth round Buffalo again addressed the area, netting Da’Norris Searcy (SS, North Carolina).  The 223-pound Searcy has the size to be an impact player against the run and enough speed and agility to be solid in coverage.  He had an incredible 27 bench press reps at the combine.

In the late fourth round the Bills did something that probably should have been addressed earlier; they picked an offensive lineman.  Chris Hairston from Clemson is a huge man at 6’6” and 325 pounds with great strength and solid athleticism, but he was never a true standout in college.

The Bills may have gotten a solid halfback in the fifth, taking a good, natural runner in UNC’s Johnny White.

In the sixth and seventh rounds the Bills continued to stockpile defensive players.

I always like when a team heads into a draft with a theme like Buffalo clearly did.  They went defense early and often, getting physical players from big-time programs.  Dareus should be a star, Williams should help right away, and Sheppard could start from Day 1 as well. Searcy is a talented player that might take some time learning the league, but he could develop into a thumper at strong safety.  Hairston was a high-upside pick who hasn’t shown that he’s an NFL starter just yet.   White complements an already talented backfield.  The only thing I would say is that the offense needed some major help but didn’t get it in this draft.  I understand though; teams can only do so much with their picks, and Buffalo completely revamped their defense in this draft.

Grade: B+

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had major needs entering this draft, and I’m not sure they addressed enough of them.  They simply didn’t have the number of picks to restock completely, but they did a solid job of adding good players at positions of need.

I like Miami’s first pick, Mike Pouncey (OL, Florida).  He’s an excellent athlete who can play center or guard, and the Dolphins desperately need more talent in the middle of their offensive line.

In the second round Miami got Kansas State runner Daniel Thomas, who fits the theme of this draft: physicality.  Thomas is a bruising 230 pounds, and with Ronnie Brown constantly injured, was a good pick.

In fourth rounder Edmund Gates, Miami might have drafted the next Ted Ginn, or they may have gotten a steal.   Out of Abilene Christian, the thing that pops is his speed: a 4.31 40-yard dash.  Perhaps he can provide the deep threat opposite the massive and imposing possession receiver Brandon Marshall.  If he can, then Chad Henne could improve dramatically.  Henne has a great downfield arm, and has needed a player that to lift the lid off of the defense and to open things up underneath.  Gates has good ball skills and strength, but he is raw in running routes.

In the sixth round the Dolphins picked up Charles Clay (TE/FB, Tulsa) who is a versatile player and a decent athlete who could fill multiple positions.

The first two picks should work out in tandem.  Pouncey can play right away and bring physicality to the Dolphin run game.  Thomas may be running strong behind Pouncey for the next 5-7 years; he’s a talented back that can wear down defenses.  Then adding the speedster Gates should help the Dolphins be a more dangerous vertical passing team.  Additionally, all of the first three selections should help Henne.  If he can’t succeed with a talented new center, another good running back, and a certified deep threat, then he’s not the guy.

Grade: B-

New England Patriots

It just isn’t fair.  They go 14-2 and then have a seemingly endless supply of draft picks the following year.   Without many needs, the Patriots could essentially pick whoever they wanted whenever they wanted.

The Patriots spent their first round selection on Nate Solder, once considered the best offensive tackle in his class, but a guy that had slid a little right before the draft.  Still, New England gets a tremendous pass protector with a huge frame and potential to be a truly elite offensive lineman.  He is the heir apparent to Matt Light on the left side.

New England addressed another big need with the top pick in the second round, adding the physical cornerback from Virginia, Ras-I Dowling.  Dowling is big and fast; the 6’1”, 200-pound corner runs a 4.40 40-yard dash.  Plus, he’s a smart player who started for a long time in college and should be solid immediately in the Patriot secondary.

Late second round pick Shane Vareen (RB, California) was a taken a little high for my taste, but he is a versatile player that bolsters a position of some need.  Though Danny Woodhead is a fine player, I’m not sure he’s the yearly answer as a feature back.  Vareen is a compact and strong runner who can catch the ball out of the backfield and has nice open field moves.  He should get some carries right off the bat and help improve a so-so Patriots running game.

I don’t really understand the Pats’ next pick in the third round, another running back in LSU’s Stevan Ridley.  I believe adding Vareen was a more than adequate move to jolt the running game, but with so many picks to play with, perhaps the Patriots just took a guy they liked.  The 225 pounder with an attacking running style can add another element to the New England offense and gives them perhaps the deepest stable of running backs in the NFL (Woodhead, BenJarvis Green-Ellis, Vareen, and now Ridley).

With the very next selection the Patriots did something some loved and others hated: Ryan Mallet.  And I loved it.  If he doesn’t work out, so what?  He’s a third round pick on a championship-level team; it won’t really be a big deal if he can’t be Brady’s successor.  And if he does work out, then the Patriots are geniuses yet again.  Mallett has the best arm of any quarterback drafted this year.  The knock on him is his work ethic and attitude toward the game. Sitting behind Brady for two or three years ought to help Mallett dial in and maximize his physical gifts.  And if Mallett doesn’t turn out to be the Patriots’ guy, he could be juicy trade bait, like we’re currently seeing with Kevin Kolb.

The fifth round saw the Patriots add mammoth TCU guard Marcus Cannon, who fits well with the physical theme New England seemed to be going for in this draft.  Cannon was, to some, a second round talent.  At 6’5” and 360 pounds, Cannon is unbelievably big, but he also shows surprising athleticism playing tackle in college.  If he can learn to play guard, he could be dominant, and that’s not something you can say about most fifth round picks.

The thing to keep in mind with this draft is that New England had a huge rookie class last year and is still developing those players.  They have so many young bodies that needs really disappear, and taking the most talented prospects becomes the smart strategy.  Solder will be a star if he stays healthy and gets stronger, Dowling has all the physical gifts to be a good corner, and the combo of Vareen/Ridley totally reshapes the running back situation.  Mallett was a flyer, a luxury pick with a huge ceiling and not much of a cost coming in the third round.  Cannon was a steal in the fifth.

Overall I love how the Patriots drafted for talent.  Their draft class has as much potential as any teams’.  The only thing I thought they missed was adding more depth to the defensive line.  They maybe could have looked at taking a dynamic wideout as well, but I’m nitpicking at this point.

Grade: A-

New York Jets

Even with limited picks, the Jets still addressed major needs.  The front line of the Jets’ 3-4 was unspectacular last year, especially after Kris Jenkins went down with yet another injury.  Jenkins is probably done as an elite player.  The linebacking corps and secondary are very strong for New York, and the offense is stocked with young talent, so finding impact players on the defensive line was the top priority in this draft.

The Jets hit big in the first round with Temple defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson.  At 6’4” and 315 pounds, Wilkerson has the size and strength to play any position on the defensive line, but he will likely spend most of his time at defensive end.  Very athletic for his size, Wilkerson has the ability to take on two blockers and could be a dominant run defender.  Physically, he’s ready to compete with NFL offensive linemen.

In the third round the Jets took a chance on a small school player in Kenrick Elllis, a defensive tackle from Hampton.  The enormous 6’5”, 350-pound Ellis plays with a violent demeanor and fires off the snap.  He has the prototype height to block quarterbacks’ line of vision and the prototype girth to take on multiple blockers.  Plus, he’s scary quick for a man of his size.  With all the talent to excel, Ellis simply has to prove he can transition from a small school to the bright lights of New York and the NFL.

In the fourth round the Jets added another player to their running back rotation, Louisville’s Bilal Powell.  He’s not huge, but at 210 pounds and with a physical running style, he can be a punishing back in stretches.  After underwhelming his first three collegiate years, Powell ran for over 1,400 yards last year.

I like the pick of Jeremy Kerley (WR, TCU) in the fifth round.  He’s a smart player that played in a pass-oriented offense in college.  I think mentally will be ready to contribute right away.  He seems to be a perfect fit in the slot.

Taking a chance on Greg McElroy in the seventh was a smart move.  Mentally he’s as sharp as quarterbacks come, and while his physical skills aren’t mind-blowing, McElroy can hold his own.  To me he projects as an ideal #2 who will add a tremendous presence to the locker room and will be like another coach on the roster.  That’s pretty good value for the seventh round.

Taking defensive linemen with their top two picks was the best thing the Jets could have done; it was by far their biggest need.  Wilkerson should be a solid player immediately and could be very good down the road.  Ellis has huge potential and talent-wise was a steal in the third round, but he has a lot to prove at the next level.  Powell and Kerley were both productive college players that aren’t physically overwhelming but should be contributors.  The Jets can’t be sold that LaDanian Tomlinson has much left in the tank, and wideouts Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are free agents.  With that in mind, Powell and Kerley were smart picks.  Finally, I can’t help but love getting such a solid individual in McElroy in the seventh round.

Grade: B

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals

#3 Buffalo Bills

What They Need: No surprise, like most teams at the top of the draft, the Bills need a lot, which of course leads to their high draft pick.  Buffalo has had a bad offensive line for a while now, but there isn’t a lineman in this year’s crop rated as a top ten prospect, much less in the top three.  In my mind, you don’t want to reach for a player when you sit so high in the draft.  At pick #3 you have to nab a big-time talent.  The Bills need wide receivers, and certainly there are some game changing prospects that will be available here in AJ Green and Julio Jones.  Still, receivers have a somewhat limited impact on the game, so I’m not sure one should go this high.  Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick showed at the very least that he can take care of the ball and keep his team in games.  He affords Buffalo the chance to address other areas of need, unless they really want a quarterback.  The running back situation is solid with CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson forming a nice duo.  The defense has some true bright spots.  Defensive tackle Kyle Williams made the Pro Bowl, linebacker Paul Posluszny is an emerging star, and Jairus Byrd is a top talent at safety.  With one young star at each level of the defense, that’s what the Bills need to build their identity on.

Who They Might Pick: If the Bills are enamored with Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert, then they should take either one if they’re on the board.  But if they aren’t completely infatuated with either, they should go defense.  Adding one top defensive player could give the Bills a really promising unit.  The Bills ranked last in the league against the run last year, so defensive line is probably the area of greatest need.  If Nick Fairley, Marcel Dareus, or perhaps Oregon State nose tackle Stephen Paea is on the board, they would be good picks.  Paea might be a reach, but he’s a monster against the run and benched 225 pounds a record 49 times at the combine.  The Bills were excellent against the pass last year, ranking third in the NFL, but they could still use a corner like Patrick Peterson.  Any team could.

My Advice: Since I told the Panthers to take Fairley and the Broncos to nab Peterson, I think Paea or Dareus should be the Bills pick.  Dareus is the more disruptive force against the pass and is the much higher rated prospect, so he's my man.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they look Newton's way with this selection, if only to draw attention to the franchise and build around a transcendent athlete.

#4 Cincinnati Bengals

What They Need: This is the hardest team in the draft to predict.  One reason is simply that they’re the Bengals.  The other is that Carson Palmer threatens to retire unless he’s traded.  Most experts think Palmer will come around and be the Bengals' guy again next year, but I don’t.  I’ve read interviews where Palmer has said he believes the NFL is getting too violent and that somebody is going to die on the field.  He doesn't love the game anymore, at least not in Cincinnati.  I think he’s a smart man, and unless he goes to an ideal spot, he’ll retire.  That’s a roundabout way of saying the Bengals may be looking for a passer at the top of the draft.  Needs abound however for the Bengals; there’s no shortage of ways they could go with this pick.  Terrell Owens is probably out the door, and Chad Ochocinco may follow.  The offensive line could use help as well.  The Bengals have good young linebackers and a talented corner duo but need help on the defensive line and at safety.

Who They Might Pick: We’ve identified offensive line, wide receiver, defensive line, safety, and potentially quarterback as the main areas of need.  If Palmer leaves, or if Cincy believes he will retire, then I would guess they’d take whichever player between Newton and Gabbert they like best.  If they don’t love either passer, I think they go either wide receiver or defensive lineman.  This is too high a spot to reach for a safety, and in a weak offensive line year they shouldn’t go in that direction either.  AJ Green from Georgia is the highest rated receiver in the draft, though Julio Jones (who ran a 4.3 40 with a broken foot) is rising up draft boards.  Either one of those players would be a nice addition, but if Palmer’s out the door, it might not make much sense to grab a wideout without a guy to get him the ball.  That leaves a defensive line opening, and the Bengals are often enamored with tremendous athletes.  That could mean pass rushers Von Miller from Texas A&M, Robert Quinn from North Carolina, or Da’Quan Bowers from Clemson.  Fairley and Dareus are possibilities as well if they’re still on the board.

My Advice: In my personal draft universe, Dareus and Fairley are gone.  That leaves Bowers as the best available option to bolster the Bengal pass rush.  If Palmer is gone I would have no problem drafting a passer here either.  But rationally, I think the run on defense should continue, and Bowers should be the pick.  It would be astounding though if my advice came to fruition: no offensive players taken in the first four picks.

--from Adam