Reviewing the 49ers Draft

Why review only one team?  Because it's my blog, this is the team I love, and looking at 32 teams picking about 7 players each is too much work.  I'm also calling it a review rather than a grade because we really won't know how well teams drafted until these rookie hit the field.

49ers Draft

Round 1: A.J. Jenkins WR, Illinois

I liked Jenkins as a prospect watching him in pre-draft footage.  He was productive at Illinois notching over 90 catches last year as opposed to the 29 catches the more flashy prospect Stephen Hill compiled.  Jenkins was also a bit of a combine freak, running a 4.37 40 yard dash.  Jenkins is a sudden athlete with good size just over 6 foot.  The only gripe I have about this pick is that perhaps the Niners could have moved back 5-10 spots and still gotten him, though this is the man they wanted all along.

Round 2: LaMichael James RB, Oregon

James is a good pick from the standpoint that he can help what was a plodding offense get some explosive plays, but I'm not sure he meets much of a need.  In a backfield with Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, and Brandon Jacobs, a second round pick seems high for James.  Maybe the writing is on the wall for older backs Gore and Jacobs, or maybe Harbaugh and GM Trent Balke simply think they can get James the ball 7-10 times a game and he will make an impact.

Round 4: Joe Looney OG, Wake Forest

Looney fits a major need with guard Adam Snyder leaving for the Cardinals.  Looney should provide competition for last year's late round pick Daniel Kilgore for the starting right guard spot, though I think perhaps the Niners could have addressed this position earlier.  Looney is known as a technician with good strength who has the intelligence to assimilate quickly to the NFL.

Round 5: Darius Flemming OLB, Notre Dame

Flemming is a pure pass rusher, and he's good at it.  Parys Haralson, Aldon Smith, and Ahmad Brooks are still going to be the main rotational guys at outside linebacker, but Flemming will come in when there is no doubt it's a passing situation.  He adds versatility to the Niners, and should be deployed on the 49ers tremendous special teams unit as a new weapon.

Round 6: Trent Robinson S, Michigan State

Robinson is a good overall athlete who started for three years at a big-time program and he fits a position of need.  Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner are an excellent duo of starters but there isn't much in the way of depth behind them, hopefully Robinson can win the third safety spot.

Round 6: Jason Slowey C, Western Oregon

The Niners under Trent Balke have continually stockpiled young offensive lineman and built that unit through the draft.  Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati have turned into starters (Iupati is exceptional, Davis is growing).  Daniel Kilgore is going to battle for a guard spot with Looney, and Slowey may prove to be an eventual replacement for Jonathan Goodwin.  Slowey is not a very good athlete, but he's strong and can move people in the run game.

Round 7: Cam Johnson DE, Virginia

Johnson had a fourth round grade from a lot of scouts because he is a good athlete with strength, who moves well for being 270 pounds.  I think he projects as a situational pass rusher and might just be big enough to play a little defensive end in the 49ers 3-4.

Summary:

I Liked: Because of some of the maneuvering the 49ers did in this draft they have a whopping 13 picks in next year's draft, which can't be overlooked.  I liked how San Fran focused on continuing to add playmakers to an offense that sorely lacked them last year.  The receiving group now consists of Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and A.J. Jenkins, along with star tight end Vernon Davis.  The Backfield boasts pro-bowler Gore, the promising Hunter, the bruiser Jacobs, and the potentially electrifying LaMichael James.  Alex Smith should logically be able to build on the best season of his career with another year under a great offensive system, and the talent around him growing exponentially.  Looney is a key to this draft class, if he can come in and push Kilgore or even steal the starting spot, then the 49ers offensive line could really gel into an elite unit.  Iupati and Joe Staley are stars are there positions, and Anthony Davis could grow into one.  Darius Fleming and Cam Johnson add some athleticism, depth, and potentially some pass rush to the front 7 which is already vicious, and Robinson may help shore up secondary depth.  Slowey is a solid pick if he can be a good backup for Goodwin.

I Didn't Like: Jenkins might have been had later in the draft, and the Niners could have accrued more picks by moving back.  James is an explosive player, and the offense needs help, but not really at the running back spot. I think picking a guard in the second or even first round would have addressed the biggest need. The 49ers defensive front 3 is excellent with Justin Smith, Isaac Sopoaga, and Ray McDonald but there is very little depth behind those players and not much was added in this draft.  Carlos Rogers was re-signed, Tarell Brown and Chris Culliver are promising corners and Tramaine Brock and Parrish Cox are good athletes who can compete over the 4th corner spot.  Still, another good cover man was a need in my opinion, and the Niners got nobody to compete for playing time at that position.

Overall:  The 49ers are going to have a much more talented offense that's hitting its groove in year number two of the Harbaugh regime.  The best defense in the league is all back from last year, and some potential depth was added in the draft.  Special Teams is still in tact with David Akers, Andy Lee, and Ted Ginn all back, and I expect a lot of these rookies to become contributors to the dynamic special teams unit for San Francisco.

A Decade-Long Dilemma

Before I launch in to what is going to be the my meat of my discussion here, let me preface my subject matter by saying that a 13-3, first-round bye-earning 49ers has me about as happy as a person could be.   I never expected this amount of success, and the few times they’d lost this year I had to pinch myself and remember that  it was an optimistic outlook when I pegged them for eight wins going into the season.

The question though, similar though more subtle than questions about Tim Tebow in Denver, is: can Alex Smith sustain this level of play, elevate it, or at the least do enough to keep the 49er train rolling?  Unlike Tebow, Smith doesn’t need to completely re-work his throwing motion, nor is he perhaps better suited to play fullback.  It’s just, nobody is quite sure if he’s capable of being anything more than a pretty solid quarterback.

The debate on Smith has been ongoing but reached a pinnacle this morning when I heard Kordell Stewart argue on ESPN radio that Smith was a Pro Bowl snub and deserved to make the squad over Eli Manning.  Stewart’s argument was that Smith had done exactly what his team needed and led them to a tremendous record in the process, whereas Manning, for all of his great stats, was merely 8-7 at the time.

Stewart raises an interesting point.  Is Smith having a consistent but underwhelming statistical year because that is the formula for his team to win or because he is getting the maximum level of production from his limited talent reservoir?  Smith, finished the year with 3,144 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions.  His 90.7 passer rating ranked ninth league-wide.

While those numbers are certainly solid, they are far from spectacular.  And are they reflective of a quarterback that can lead his team to a Super Bowl?  Perhaps, given the Niners’ outstanding defense, great special teams, and strong running attack, Smith is exactly what he needs to be.

This is the point in the Smith discussion where we point out that he’s had a different offensive system every year that he’s played in the league, save for one, and that his circumstances entering the league where less than ideal, coming to an awful 49er team.  But with all of that changed, with the stability of a great coach who’s also offensive minded and a former quarterback, is Smith’s best season as a pro a sign of progress toward a higher level or simply the genius of Jim Harbaugh squeezing every last bit of production out of an average player?

You might ask, “Why does it matter?”  The 49ers are 13-3, whatever Smith is doing is working, so why tinker with it?  That’s a fair point, but the 49ers aspirations are no longer to win a bad division and shoot for an 8-8 record.  This team wants a championship, and for that to happen the quarterback must be more than adequate.  Smith is on a one-year deal right now, so these questions become even more pressing when assessing the future.

A starting quarterback at the age of 27 (Smith’s age) is going to want big-time dollars, especially after leading his team to 13 victories.  Yet Smith still sails passes over wide open receivers, struggles mightily on third down and in the red zone, and fails to make many explosive plays down the field.

With another year to get comfortable and fully master Harbaugh’s offensive attack, Smith may finally hit the tier of elite play where he can be a 4,000 yard passer and take a team on his back and win games by himself.  That could happen, but I just don’t see it.  Usually when a player is going to breakout, we see flashes of brilliance.  Aaron Rodgers looked magnificent when he had to come in and play for an injured Brett Favre against a tough Cowboys team in an ’08 game before becoming the starter in ‘09.  Andy Dalton and Cam Newton have already showed us glimpses of what could be awesome careers.

Yet Smith never quite looks that way.  49er fans are just relieved when he hits a receiver in stride.  The ball hardly ever fires from Smith’s hands with conviction, and he rarely makes a throw where as a fan you say, “That was a pass few players can make.”

My inclination is that Smith may get better with another year in Harbaugh’s system but will never be anything more than a B-level player.  In this league, that may be good enough for a lot of wins, and with their defense, the 49ers may even be able to win a Super Bowl, but it makes their margin for error razor thin.

So what to do with Smith and his expired contract at the end of the year?  If there are no other viable options, you simply have to pay him.  A 13-win season is something Niner fans have been waiting for since Smith arrived, and even before that.  This franchise has been god-awful for a near decade, and to change anything about a team that has had such a terrific season is going to draw extreme scrutiny from all sides.  If nothing else, Smith has proven that with the right cast and good coaching, he can be a winner.

The option I like better is one that has been bandied about talk radio quite frequently, so it may have some legs or it may be pure conjecture.  Many are talking about the 49ers trading for Peyton Manning, who seems to be getting healthy, and will likely be replaced with the Colts’ future number one overall pick, Andrew Luck.  The thought is that Luck is ready to play right now, and the Colts would be wasting time having him sit behind Manning and should test the market to see what they could get in return for Peyton.

In the event that Manning was completely healthy, he would still be an elite player for another two-to-three years and would want to finish his career where he had a chance to win a championship.  With Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, and Michael Crabtree, plus a stout offensive line and a great defense at his back, Manning would have the kind of cast he could lead to great heights.  He could also tutor what must be regarded as the 49ers’ future at quarterback, last year’s second-round pick Colin Kaepernick.

Beyond Manning the free agent crop is pretty dry at quarterback, and drafting yet another rookie passer would just be a step in the wrong direction unless somehow the 49ers were able to attain Andrew Luck.

Smith won’t be content to play the backup role next year, nor would he sign with the 49ers for backup money, so San Francisco’s options are limited.  They can either sign Smith to at minimum a 3-year deal worth likely a large sum or make a move for Manning hoping that he can be fully healthy coming off of (gulp) neck surgery and can elevate a very good team into a Super Bowl favorite.

Either way, Kaepernick won’t be ready for another year or two, and even then we cannot be sure what type of player he will be.  The most likely scenario appears to be that Smith will get re-signed in San Fran, and the Faithful will have to hope that he develops further under the guru Jim Harbaugh.  It’s not the best scenario in the world, but it no longer feels as though the 49ers are being held hostage by Alex Smith.  If he returns as the starter next year—and for the foreseeable future—I will be hopeful about him progressing, though I never see him turning the corner to become a truly great quarterback.

--from @AdamHocking

NFC West: 2011 Division Preview

St. Louis Rams

Taking a quarterback in the first round of the draft is always a boom or bust prospect, yet the St. Louis Rams appear to have hit the jackpot with last year’s number one overall selection Sam Bradford.  The Rams go as far as Bradford takes them this season, which I predict is straight through the heart of the NFC West and all the way to the playoffs.

Coming off a spectacular rookie campaign in which he accounted for every single Rams pass attempt, completing 60% of them for 3512 yards and 18 touchdowns, Bradford enters his sophomore season having to learn his second NFL playbook under new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.  Based on the results of that system in New England and Denver—Tom Brady’s record breaking 2007, Matt Cassel’s 11-5 2008, Kyle Orton’s 3700-yard-per-season average, Orton even could have surpassed 4000 yards last year had Tim Tebow not gotten in the way—assuming he gets it down, Bradford should flourish.

Joining Bradford on offense is the long-time Ram stalwart and top-10 running back Stephen Jackson.  An absolute workhorse for so many years, the 28-year-old Jackson has yet to show any signs of slowing.

On the outside Bradford made a pretty motley crew look like superstars last year.  Mark Clayton was their big play threat who got injured mid-season and was missed sorely down the stretch.  Danny Amendola looked like Bradford’s Wes Welker.  2009 standout Donnie Avery missed a lot of time last year and he should be back healthy ready to make an impact.  Young bucks Mardy Gilyard and Austin Pettis will look to make their marks, and free agent signee Mike Sims-Walker brings the elements of size and physicality to the rest of this smallish group.

Take this with a grain of salt, but rookie tight end Lance Kendricks has played very well in the preseason.  Kendricks can fill the athletic tight end role, a position Bradford astutely utilized in college throwing to Jermaine Gresham.

Another of the Rams’ offseason acquisitions, former Falcon Harvey Dahl, will join an already astute offensive line that features center Jason Brown, tackles Roger Saffold and Jason Brown, and guard Jacob Bell.  That all should shape up to be quite a unit for a long time.

After the departure of Oshiomogho Atogwe, the defense is left without many stars, though that’s not to say this isn’t a sound group.  Chris Long has improved each year in the league and is one of this defense’s young leaders, the other being Steve Spagnuolo’s on-field counterpart, middle linebacker James Laurinaitis.  Opposite Long, the 33-year-old James Hall racked up 10.5 sacks last year, making a scary pair of defensive ends.  A nice addition at safety, Quintin Mikell adequately replaces Atogwe, but overall the secondary lacks playmakers.

Biggest Strengths: Having Sam Bradford, the best quarterback in the division.

Biggest Weaknesses: The Rams are a young team that lacks experience, and they could use more talent in the secondary.

Eric’s Prediction: 9-7, First in NFC West

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Second in NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

I’m a little higher on Kevin Kolb than Adam is, but both of us agree, the Arizona Cardinals gave up a lot to get him, so he’d better be worth it.  Yet, I also argue that judging Arizona’s quarterback situation last year, there’s no way bringing in Kolb would not be a monumental improvement.

Kolb has not shown a lot in limited action—only seventeen games played and seven games started—but there have been glimpses of that ever-tantalizing “potential.”  Of his seven starts, Kolb posted 100+ passer ratings in three of them.  The other four were a blowout in which he was forced to attempt 51 passes and ended up throwing three interceptions (his first career start), a game he plain got knocked out of, one stinker, and a meaningless Week 17 game in which none of the regulars played.

Although Arizona possesses limited options on offense, the ones that are there are pretty good.  After his spectacular 2009 playoff run, many people believed Larry Fitzgerald to be the best wideout in football.  Even with Kurt Warner no longer chucking bombs last season, Fitzgerald still caught 90 passes for 1137 yards.  Losing Steve Breaston hurts this offense; either Andre Roberts or Early Doucet needs to catch on as the second receiving threat.  Todd Heap brings a tremendous set of hands to the tight end position, but staying healthy is never an easy task for “The Stormin’ Mormon.”

With Tim Hightower now in Washington and second-round draft pick Ryan Williams done for the year, the starting running back slot belongs solely to Beanie Wells.  A rebound after a sub-par sophomore season would greatly help this offense, but that could be a tough assignment considering the Cardinals’ lackluster offensive line.

Arizona runs a hybrid 3-4 defense, and up front Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell create lots of havoc both inside and outside.  The problem for Arizona: I don’t see much else behind them though.  Joey Porter is well past his prime, and though still a good player, so is safety Adrian Wilson.  In drafting Patrick Peterson the Cards got one of the top talents in the draft, but even so, relying on a rookie cornerback is typically a terrifying prospect.

Biggest Strengths: Having a weapon like Larry Fitzgerald makes everyone’s job easier.

Biggest Weaknesses: The most important position on the field is filled by a complete unknown, Kevin Kolb.

Eric’s Prediction: 8-8, Second in NFC West

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

With an exciting, new head coach, much optimism runs through the hearts of 49er faithful.  Jim Harbaugh was the most sought after head coach this offseason, and he comes to a team with offensive deficiencies that hasn’t had a winning record since 2002, the San Francisco 49ers.

And when I mention “offensive deficiencies,” that conversation begins and ends with Alex Smith.  The 49ers refuse to let former number one overall pick fall into a “bust” label; they keep giving him chances.  There have been moments where Smith takes one’s breath away and makes that number one selection seem worth it, but in equal measure are the moments that just make one sigh, or worse.

If San Francisco struggles this season, it’s all on Smith’s shoulders.  The skill positions are set with as good a supporting cast as there is in football.  Frank Gore is still running strong even after reaching the age of 28 and leading his team in rushing for the past six-straight seasons.  Regarded as the top talent in his draft, Michael Crabtree, though injured and may miss some time, is currently entering his third year in the league, the year where many wide receivers blossom and put up monster numbers.  To complement Crabtree the Niners brought in ex-Jet Braylon Edwards, who might have trouble catching the ball but whose athleticism is a definite plus.  Then over the middle they have the most complete tight end in football, Vernon Davis.  A sick athlete that catches passes and drives guys into the dirt in the blocking game, Davis does it all.

Plus, breathing down Smith's neck is the rookie second-round pick, Colin Kaepernick.  Either Kaepernick will push Smith to get better, or Kaepernick's mere presence will topple Smith's fragile psyche like a house of cards.

Quarterback guru Harbaugh has to be itching to groom Kaepernick—big arm, mobile, yet unpolished—into San Fran's quarterback of the future.  Yet the problem is that he might have to be the quarterback right now.

Joe Staley and Mike Iupati make up one heck of a left side to the offensive line; on the other San Francisco is still looking for the right mix.  Anthony Davis had a terrible rookie season and must rebound.  The 49ers also need to replace center David Baas, who departed via free agency.

After San Francisco’s 8-8 2009 season, the defense really looked like it was going to be great.  Led on the sidelines by Mike Singletary and on the field by Patrick Willis, they were supposed to be a force to be reckoned with.  Yet last year did not fulfill that promise.  Partly because that unit was a little overrated and another part because the offense was so terrible the defense never got off the field, the 2010 defense was a disappointment.

You can’t blame anything on Willis though.  Our choice for the best defensive player in the game, Willis is a terror on the field, but he needs help.  The secondary looks like it could be a good unit with Carlos Rogers coming in to play at one corner and a dynamic pair of safeties in Dashon Goldson and free agent signee Donte Whitner.  Backing them up will be Madieu Williams and Taylor Mays, two guys I'd like to see more out of than what they've shown.  First-round pick Aldon Smith must be good right away if the Niners hope to generate pass rush, but for a raw rookie, that seems like a stretch.

All told, this will be the year of Jim Harbaugh.  Can he change the culture of losing?  Can he change Alex Smith?  Those are the tasks that lay ahead.

Biggest Strengths: There is undeniable talent at the skill positions.

Biggest Weaknesses: Alex Smith.

Eric’s Prediction: 8-8, Third in NFC West

Adam’s Prediction: 8-8, First in NFC West

Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks can be summed up by its quarterback situation: either Charlie Whitehurst or Tarvaris Jackson.

I feel like I should stop there, but I’ll go on.

Outside of Russell Okung and to a lesser extent Robert Gallery, the offensive line is a pretty ugly unit.  Ditto for the running back group.  They have Marshawn Lynch, who wasn’t good enough hold down a starting gig in Buffalo; Leon Washington, who’s best as a kick returner; and scatback/wannabe R&B star Justin Forsett.  Their fullback, Michael Robinson, was a college quarterback, because when I think about what I want from a lead blocker, I think of a quarterback.

Zach Miller at tight end and wide receiver Sidney Rice are really nice targets to bring in, but who can get them the ball?

On defense they have Aaron Curry, who was one of the top talents in his draft but who is still trying to figure out the NFL game, and no one else I care to mention.

Last year’s playoff win be damned, our expectations are extremely low for the Seahawks.  This could be a long year.

Biggest Strengths: Uh… the 12th man?

Biggest Weaknesses: The roster.

Eric’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in NFC West

Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in NFC West

--from @jeuneski

The Quandary of Alex Smith

A Mystery Wrapped in a Riddle

To keep, or not to keep, that is the question.  Specifically, that is the question for the 49ers regarding much maligned quarterback Alex Smith, and it is a question not easily answered.

Smith’s career is, in itself, a canvas for fans, analysts, and coaches alike to debate modern day quarterbacking in the NFL.  Is it nature or nurture that creates greatness in a signal caller?  Is consistency in coaching the most important thing?  What about the formative first years of a passer’s career, are those the most vital?  Or, does greatness always shine through; no matter the circumstances will a great player become great no matter where they play?

Smith came in to the league highly touted for his accuracy and off-the-charts intelligence, seemingly the perfect fit for the dysfunctional 49ers.  Once he got to San Fran he struggled, but a horrendous rookie year was more than understandable.  Coming to a team that was 2-14 the previous season and had been outscored by an average of 14 points in their 14 losses, when Smith tossed just one touchdown and eleven interceptions in his inaugural campaign, Niner Nation stayed patient.

In his second year, a light seemed to switch on inside Smith.  He wasn’t yet great, but he had made a quantum leap from Year 1.  He compiled an 8% higher completion percentage, threw as many touchdowns as interceptions, and led the 49ers to more wins (7) than they had in their previous two seasons combined.

Another key aspect of Smith’s success in his sophomore campaign was the presence of offensive genius Norv Turner, a man who consistently coaches passing attacks to the top of league leader boards.  But alas, Turner was gone the very next season, accepting the Chargers’ head coaching position, and Smith was back to square one.  Smith suffered the first of many shoulder injuries in his third year, completed just 48% of his passes, and compiled a paltry 57 passer rating in seven starts.

After missing all of 2008 with an injury, Smith was swept under the rug of the 49ers’ collective consciousness.  It was just too painful to think we had missed so badly on the top pick in the draft.  But then in 2009, amidst another up-and-down year, Smith re-emerged mid-season to snatch the starting job from Shaun Hill, punctuated by a game against the Houston Texans where he led a furious second half comeback that fell just short, though Smith did throw three touchdowns in a single half.

For the rest of 2009 Smith played solidly if spectacularly, compiling a 5-5 record, a 18/12 touchdown to interception ratio, a 61% completion rate, and his highest passer rating ever.  Aha!  The 49ers had finally seized something from Smith, had found the talent which made him worthy of the top pick.  Best of all, he was now healthy heading into the offseason after finishing off San Francisco’s first non-losing season in six years.

Quarterbacks are hard to come by, and when the former number one overall pick starts to show signs of life, you give him as wide a berth as he needs, and that’s precisely what the 49ers did following Smith’s 2009 resurgent season.  San Francisco, for the first time in Smith’s career, did not change offensive coordinators or offensive systems.  Smith would have continuity, health, and the confidence of his best year as a pro heading into 2010.

And yet if this past season wasn’t a step backwards for both Smith and the Niners, it was a year spent in neutral.  Smith again posted a career-best passer rating, but his inconsistency was maddening, and his rating seemed to result from garbage time touchdowns.  Consistently the 49ers would dig themselves into an insurmountable deficit, and Smith would toss a couple worthless touchdowns late.  So by simply eyeing the box score, one might think Smith was continuing to improve.

In reality, the case was anything but.  Smith’s record as a starter last year was 3-7, and he had to constantly be propped up by teammates who noticed his negative body language and blatant lack of self-confidence on the field.  The continuity that was supposed to stabilize the fragile Smith hadn’t, and the 49ers were back to the drawing board with their mercurial quarterback.

Of course, in evaluating Smith’s last two seasons, one must consider the Mike Singletary factor.  Coach Singletary, according to many players and coaches around the league, ran the most simplistic offense they had ever seen in their NFL lives.  It was a system that perhaps only a handful of passer’s could have succeeded in.  Some 49ers reported that other teams were laughing at them on the field, saying that they knew exactly what the Niners were going to do on virtually every play.

Singletary also infamously and very visibly called Smith out on the sidelines throughout last year.  Undermining and humiliating your team leader is not the best strategy, but then again, strategy was never Singletary’s strong suit.

Smith may have had consistency under the Singletary regime, but consistently poor coaching without a good system is not a recipe for success.

So now, we are left with far more questions than answers regarding Smith.  After struggling through his thrown-into-the-fire rookie season, he improved dramatically in Year 2 with a great offensive mind in Turner as a mentor, after which he lost nearly two full seasons to injury.  Following that, Smith put together his best two seasons as a pro, but he still didn’t have the look of a leader or a true NFL quarterback.  Yet, was that a product of one of the worst offensive systems in recent NFL memory, or was it Smith’s job to rise above that system and excel anyway?

We don’t know the answers to these questions yet, and if the 2011 season happens, Smith will be faced with yet another system and another coaching staff.  Yet hope springs eternal in the Niner breast, perhaps with good reason.  New coach Jim Harbaugh played quarterback for fifteen years in the NFL and has a tremendous track record in developing passers.  At San Diego University Harbaugh turned Josh Johnson into an All-American quarterback and got him drafted into the NFL.  Harbaugh also took over a 1-11 Stanford team—four years later they went 12-1—all the while mentoring Andrew Luck, who many now regard as the best pro quarterback prospect since John Elway.

Smith is only 27 years old, though he seems to have lived a lifetime in this league already.  He has time to turn his career around, especially with Harbaugh, who with his long-term contract will provide Smith the consistency and brilliant offensive mind that he’s never had, save for Turner.  Perhaps Smith, given this year and moving forward could finally become the player we all thought he was coming out of Utah.

However, there will be a short leash with Smith as 49er fans are fed up with his struggles and their beloved team’s continual losing.  Additionally, second round pick Colin Kaepernick will be breathing down Smith’s neck early and often, which will either push Alex to get better, or crumble like a house of cards.

So is Smith a broken man with no confidence left to be a good player in this league?  Or, can he rise above his past circumstances?  We don’t yet know the answers, and unfortunately for 49ers fans, it may take another two years to find out.  If Smith can’t excel in Harbaugh’s system once given adequate time to learn it, only then we will finally, sufficiently be able to say that Alex Smith never had “it” to begin with.  But for now, Niner fans are simply stuck in the middle, wondering what could have been and what might be with Alex Smith.

--from @AdamHocking

(image from flickr.com)

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC West

Grading this year’s draft is a little tricky because due to labor uncertainty, we have no idea what will happen in free agency.  A draft pick may start right away for a departing free agent or unexpectedly sit behind a future free agent acquisition not yet on the roster.  The point is you can’t entirely judge what a team did in this year’s draft until you see the whole offseason picture, which free agency is an integral part of.  So for now, let’s look at the quality of players each team selected and do some guess work as to how each team met their needs.

Arizona Cardinals

Most people are going to crush them for passing on Blaine Gabbert.  Not me.  If you don’t think that a guy is going to be a franchise player as a quarterback, you don’t pay him fifth overall money.  The Cardinals must not have loved any of the passers available, and you’d have to assume they will make a move for Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, or another veteran signal caller.  If Arizona does find a solid quarterback, they will have a nice team to surround him with due to a very good draft this year.

Picking Patrick Peterson was the best thing they could have done.  He was the best player in this draft, and they got him with the fifth pick.  Combined with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Peterson instantly gives Arizona an elite corner duo.  Keep in mind this is also a defense that already boasts Pro Bowlers in safety Adrian Wilson and Darnell Dockett as well as rising star Calais Campbell.

In the second round the Cards nabbed what I consider to be an immense talent in Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams.  He is an electric open field runner with great vision, elusiveness, and natural ability.  He can form a terrific backfield trio with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower.

In the third round the Cardinals added the freakishly athletic receiving tight end Robert Housler from Florida Atlantic.  A perfect middle of the field, red zone, and deep target to draw coverage away from Larry Fitzgerald, Housler is 6’5” and ran a 4.5 40 yard dash at the combine.

Quan Sturdivant (North Carolina) and Sam Acho (Texas) are a pair of linebackers that I believe can start in this league and will improve the Cardinals’ defense instantly.

If you read the tea leaves, it’s clear this draft set the table for a veteran quarterback to come in and guide the ship.  Whoever's brought in will have Williams and Wells to hand the ball to, Fitzgerald and Housler to throw to, and a much improved defense on the other side.  The only thing, and this is rather glaring, is that Arizona did nothing to help their below average offensive line.  I love the talent they acquired, and I think they got a number of steals, but they didn’t draft a single offensive lineman.

Grade: B+

San Francisco 49ers

Say what you want about taking Missouri pass rusher Aldon Smith seventh overall, but I like the pick.  Adding an outside pass rush was the 49ers’ biggest defensive need, and with Von Miller off the board, San Fran got the best available man.  It might have been a slight reach, but Smith is a very talented player that was valued as a top-15 talent who meets a pressing need.

In the second round the Niners made another good move by drafting the hugely gifted Colin Kaepernick from Nevada.  Certainly Kaepernick is a project, but there were no slam dunk passers in this draft, and by taking the Nevada quarterback in the second round, the 49ers will avoid paying him exorbitant money.  Behind Cam Newton, Kaepernick was the most athletic quarterback in the draft.  Also, Kaepernick has the arm strength to make any throw, is considered very smart/coachable, and will be in the hands of quarterback guru Jim Harbaugh.  He won’t play immediately, but he has the talent to be a very good starter down the road.

The Niners kill two birds with one stone in the third round by drafting the speedy corner from South Carolina, Chris Culliver.  He ran a 4.36 at the combine, has good coverage skills, and can return kicks.  He should compete for the nickel back spot.

Perhaps an heir apparent to Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter in the fourth round was a tremendous value.  Injuries and fumble issues prohibited the very talented Hunter from going as high as the second round.  If he gets 5-10 touches a game, he could make an impact right away.

Ronald Johnson, the wideout from USC, was a good value in the sixth round as a potential slot receiver and kick returner.  The Niners also drafted two offensive linemen, two defensive backs, and a defensive lineman in the later rounds to add depth, competition, and perhaps find an every down player.

The Niners reached a bit in the first round, and while Kaepernick can be a good quarterback, he won’t help right away.  Culliver may have been a reach in the third, but Hunter was a steal in the fourth.  The Niners stockpiled players and added depth to the undermanned secondary in the later rounds.

Grade: B-

Seattle Seahawks

The Alabama offensive lineman, James Carpenter, their first round pick, could have been had in the late second or early third rounds.  John Moffitt is a guard I really like from Wisconsin, but Seattle could have gotten him later too.

Mississippi State’s KJ Wright, linebacker, was a solid pick in the fourth round.  He’s very athletic and fits with the rangy duo of Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry.  The only thing is, linebacker is already a relative strength on Seattle, and the defensive front was really what needed attention.  Seattle proceeded to draft three defensive backs before adding their lone defensive lineman in the seventh round.

After having such a great draft last year, I guess Seattle was due for a stinker, and that’s precisely what they got.  This was a team that needed help at the skill positions and also along the defensive line.  They got none of that.  They reached big time with their first selection and invested their top two picks in guys that may both play guard.

Grade: D+

St. Louis Rams

In the first round the Rams continued to add talent to an up-and-coming young defense.  Robert Quinn, a defensive end from North Carolina, is an immense talent who comes with plenty of question marks after sitting out all of last year with a suspension.  If he lives up to his ability, the Rams got a steal to bookend the improving former #2 overall selection, Chris Long.

Sam Bradford was tremendous as a rookie despite his top targets—Mark Clayton and Donnie Avery—missing most of the season.  Even with those guys coming back, Bradford needs more help.  This draft brought it in spades.

The middle of the second round may have been a little high to take Wisconsin receiving tight end Lance Kendricks, but he is a tremendous option in the middle of the field that has more than enough speed to outrun safeties and stretch defenses.

Austin Pettis in the third round adds another big target to Bradford’s arsenal.  At 6’3” and over 200 pounds, Pettis can be the possession receiver that complements the smaller and quicker combo of Avery and Clayton.

For good measure, the Rams selected yet another receiver with their next pick, taking Greg Salas from Hawaii.  Salas too is a big wideout at 6’2”, 206 pounds that comes from a pass-happy system in Hawaii.

You might think this is too much attention to one area of need, but the Rams’ offensive line is a good unit, and Stephen Jackson is a star running back, so receivers really were the only thing holding this offense back from being special.

In the late rounds the Rams drafted three defensive backs, the best of which may be Jermale Hines, a physical safety from Ohio State.  They also added a mostly unknown prospect, Jabara Williams to the linebacking corps, who will hope to make the team as a special teams player.

Robert Quinn has lots of red flags, but if he works out, he is an impact player added to an improving defense that was solid but unspectacular last year.  The Rams probably should have used one of the three picks they spent on receivers to add another playmaking defender.  Kendricks was probably a reach, though I think he will be a good starter in the NFL.  Pettis and Salas should make the team, but I don’t know if either will be special.  Still, Sam Bradford is the franchise, and management has now surrounded him with solid protection, a great running back, and a bevy of diverse, young pass catchers.

Grade: C+

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans

#7 San Francisco 49ers

What They Need: From the outside looking in, it’s easy to say, “The Niners have been horrible because of Alex Smith.  They have to draft a quarterback.”  I can tell you though that San Francisco is petrified of missing on another first round signal caller.  Most of the fan base would rather add a veteran via free agency and use this top pick on a more sure fire prospect than Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton.  That isn’t to say I completely agree with that sentiment.  New coach Jim Harbaugh is supposedly a master at developing quarterbacks.  If he got his hands on an athlete like Newton, who knows what he could turn him in to.  The rest of the 49er offense shouldn’t require much attention.  The offensive line starts three recent first round picks and two second rounders amongst Joe Staley, Mike Iupati, David Baas, Chilo Rachal, and Anthony Davis.  Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis are talented, young targets on the outside, but their growth has been limited by sporadic quarterback play.  Defensively the Niners are slightly overrated, but they have some very good players.  The defensive front is stout and Patrick Willis is a superstar, but the rest is suspect.  Pass rush is often absent, and pass coverage was atrocious at times last year.  Nate Clements is all but done, so corner is a major need.

Who They Might Pick: The Niners have too many blatant holes to make a luxury pick like AJ Green or Julio Jones.  A shutdown corner, major pass rusher, or perhaps their quarterback of the future are the only logical positions on which to spend this selection.  If San Fran loves either Newton or Gabbert, and their man happens to be on the board, they should probably take him.  If you love a quarterback in the draft and you don’t have a good one on your roster, you have to take the plunge and pick the passer.  That said, I don’t know how the Niners feel about Gabbert’s and Newton’s prospects.  Patrick Peterson should be gone by this spot, but if he’s not, I can’t envision the Niners picking anyone else.  Prince Amukamara should still be on the board at this point; he would be a very nice fall-back selection.  Amukamara is an excellent cover man with tremendous smarts and experience.  The knock on him was a perceived lack of speed, but he ran a sub 4.4 at the combine and effectively erased those doubts.  Von Miller and Robert Quinn would be the choices if San Fran fancies an edge rusher with this pick, and Miller is rated slightly higher at this point.  If Marcel Dareus or Nick Fairley are still dangling at this spot in the draft, the Niners would probably consider adding either as a great value pick.  Their defensive line is solid, but it’s aging and not truly dynamic, so Fairley or Dareus would fit a need (albeit one less pressing).

My Advice: Looking at my players available the choice comes down to the corner Amukamara or the pass rushers Miller and Quinn.  Prince Amukamara is a surer prospect than either of the sack masters, so I’d go with the Nebraska corner in this slot.  He’s smart, can start right away, and will improve this defense tremendously.

With the 7th pick, the San Francisco 49ers take Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska.

#8 Tennessee Titans

What They Need:  The Titans are a really interesting team in this year’s draft.  They pick high enough that a lot of mega prospects should be lingering on their board, but it’s tough to say where the Titans want to go with this selection.  They have a new coaching regime, and I wonder if they’re hesitant to consider Newton after the headaches of the Vince Young era, another unproven passer who was a mega-star in college (I assume Young won’t be with the Titans next year).   I think Newton will have a better career than Young has, but I’d still be unsure if I were the Titans.  Still, there’s no doubt quarterback will be a need for the now Jeff Fisher-less franchise, and Newton may be the best signal caller available.  Kenny Britt is a really talented wideout, and obviously Chris Johnson is an elite running back.  They could use another offensive playmaker on the outside, so receiver could be an option.  The offensive line is good but not great, so they won’t invest a top pick in an already solid unit.  Defensively, there are some very good players on this roster.  Defensive end Jason Babin, a 2004 first round pick that spent the past few years bouncing around the league, finally excelled last year in Tennessee and earned a trip to the Pro Bowl.  Bookending Babin is last year’s first round pick Derrick Morgan, who looks to be a very promising player.  Jason Jones is a very good, young defensive tackle that could use some more help in the trenches.  Though their linebackers are unspectacular, it’s a solid group, and there won’t be a 4-3 linebacker worthy of the eighth overall selection.  Cortland Finnegan is a really good corner, and Alterraun Verner looked great as a rookie last year.  Chris Hope and Michael Griffin form a very good safety duo.  So, the Titans’ biggest needs are quarterback, another receiver, defensive tackle, linebacker help, and maybe another corner for depth purposes.

Who They Might Pick: I think If Newton is still on the board, he’s the most likely pick.  You just can’t pass on such a talented player if he’s still on the board.  Yes, I have tons of questions about him, but it’s a big need for the Titans, and he has unlimited potential.  If Newton is gone they could look to target Oregon State nose tackle Stephen Paea to solidify the run defense.  Dareus and Fairley would be no-brainer selections, but I think both guys will be gone.  The Titans don’t run a 3-4, so the edge rush linebackers are out of the equation and their defensive ends are tremendous, so Da’Quan Bowers is out as well.  Amukamara could be the pick here, though I don’t think he represents a big need.  The Titans’ choice should come down to Newton or Paea, and if both are still on the board, Newton will be the guy.

My Advice: It scares the hell out of me, but draft Cam Newton.  If you pass him up and he turns into a star, it’ll bury your franchise.  Newton is a smarter guy than Young, he’s more polished, and he handled a ton of adversity last year at Auburn.  Newton was probably the most famous athlete in America for about five months, endured a huge scandal, and still won every game he played in.  There’s something to be said for that.  Plus, he may be the most athletic quarterback since Michael Vick burst onto the scene in 2001.  Comparisons to Tim Tebow are utterly ridiculous.

With the 8th pick, the Tennessee Titans select Cam Newton, QB, Auburn.

--from Adam

(images from zimbio.com)

A Breath of Fresh Air

The San Francisco 49ers were once the class of the National Football League, a flagship franchise and a recognizable brand name.  Yet the last decade of 49er football has eroded any shine or prestige from this once proud franchise and humbled its fan base.  Over the past ten years, Niner faithful have been put through the gamut of trying emotions from frustration to hopelessness.

The Dennis Erickson, Mike Nolan, and Mike Singletary years were characterized by mind numbing incompetence, disorganization, and downright abysmal football.  The offense has often looked so out of its element, so ineffective, the impression arose that these players had never shared a field before.

Prior to the reign of this terrible trio of coaches, the Niners were moderately successful with head coach Steve Mariucci and quarterback Jeff Garcia, but were never a true Super Bowl threat.  The last time the Niners really contended for a championship was under the direction of Steve Young thirteen years ago.  The last time they won a Super Bowl was 1994.  To those that say San Francisco fans are impatient or spoiled, consider that the team hasn't truly challenged since Seinfeld was just wrapping up its final season and hasn't won a Super Bowl since Clinton's first term.  Plus, since the start of the 2003 season, the 49ers are 46-82, which includes 14-, 12-, 11-, and 10-loss seasons.  In that same span, their best finish was 8-8; they've recorded no winning records.

49er fans have had to learn how to lose cold turkey.  The abrupt fall from greatness was principally caused by three things: Poor management, poor coaching, and poor quarterback play.  Up until the past few years, the 49ers were one of the least talented teams in the league, but recently have accumulated a good amount of young talent and field their best roster since 2002.  Yet, this year, Singletary's ineptness and Alex Smith's continued lackluster performance held back an otherwise talented team.  Singletary was a motivator, but he was terrible at designing a game-plan and was an even worse game manager.  He was indecisive, confused, he waffled, and he pushed the wrong buttons with his players entirely too often.

Enter new coach Jim Harbaugh, the reason for Niner optimism.

As mentioned, the cupboard is not bare.  Vernon Davis is perhaps the most talented tight end in the league, Michael Crabtree has flashes of brilliance, Frank Gore is still a great all-around back, and the offensive line is young and talented.  Missing has been a system capable of accentuating the talents of these players and a passer who could execute that system.  Harbaugh is seen as an offensive innovator, played quarterback in the NFL, and coached Stanford to a tremendous 12-1 season not long after the Cardinal was 1-11.  In other words, he is the man best equipped to fix the Niners' woeful offense, possessing the best football mind of any San Francisco head coach in a long time.

An interesting wrinkle in this whole Harbaugh situation is that his former quarterback at Stanford, Andrew Luck, would be top pick of the 2011 NFL Draft.  Yet Luck has decided to return to school for another year, which rules out the possibility of the Niners nabbing him in this year's draft.  If Luck were to enter though, the Niners would have to move up to get him, and I have no clue if that's plausible.  So with the head coach drought over, the question is, how do the Niners address the quarterback situation?

Picking seventh in the draft, the Niners are certainly in a position to net one of the top quarterback prospects.  Yet Luck was far and away the top rated quarterback; big questions remain about the NFL credentials of Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, and Jake Locker.  Could the Niners grab Newton with their top pick and hope that Harbaugh can mold a transcendent athlete into a great NFL quarterback?  Are Gabbert and Mallett more than just big arms?  Is Lockers' poor senior season indicative of his talent or his team's lack thereof?

Or do the Niners snatch the best player available with that pick and pursue a veteran quarterback to be a place holder for 2-3 years.  Could Donovan McNabb excel with Davis, Crabtree, and Gore around him?  Could Kyle Orton be good enough to win the abysmal NFC West?

Or, commence eye roll now Niner fans, do Niners brass hope Harbaugh can sprinkle his magic on former first overall pick Smith, still trying to shake a potential "bust" label?

Whatever way they Niners go, it's nice to feel that the head coaching quandary has been solved, and just maybe the quarterback dilemma will be next.

And oh yeah, about getting a new stadium…

Step One

--from Adam

(Image from zimbio.com)