What a Difference a Year (And Some Pitching) Makes

Miller Park: The Site of Much Optimism

This time last season it was become painfully apparent that despite all of the Milwaukee Brewers’ offensive firepower, their lack of quality pitching wouldn’t allow them anywhere near the postseason.  Yet things feel quite a bit different in 2011, and it ain’t because the offense is setting records.  It’s because for the first time in over a decade the Brewers have a deep, talented, and reliable rotation of starting pitchers.

Sure, at one point they had C.C. Sabathia, who during his time in Milwaukee put on a pitching clinic like few have ever seen.  That same season, the Brew Crew also had Ben Sheets, who predictably came up with a season-ending injury just before the playoffs.  It’s almost like Sheets had it in his contract that he was never to pitch or pitch well in a game of any magnitude.

Then once C.C. left and Sheets shot out the door, Milwaukee was left with an ultra-talented, young ace in Yovanni Gallardo and a pile of cow manure borrowed from a nearby hippie commune.  Jeff Suppan was terrible, Manny Parra was wildly inconsistent, and Randy Wolf just wasn’t quite good enough to be the second starter on a contender.

As a long-time fan of the Brewers, mediocrity is what I’ve come to expect, but the pitching last year was so far below average that even with my lowered expectations, I couldn’t help but chafe at just how pitiful my team had become.  Certainly I didn’t expect the pitching to get much better this year, because although management has gotten better about spending money, it’s still the Brewers we’re talking about.

So when Milwaukee landed Zach Grienke and Shaun Marcum via trades, I wasn’t just surprised, I was shocked and overjoyed.  Finally, it appeared, Milwaukee would trot out a rotation to battle any other.

Then the Brewers got out of the gate with a faith-shaking 13-19 record, including an awful 7-game losing streak.  I began to believe that no matter who took the field for my team, we were simply allergic to winning.  Thankfully, I was wrong.

Since May 7th the Brewers are an astounding, MLB-leading 24-10 primarily because of the consistent strength of their starting pitching.  Since the Crew can routinely shut down, or at least keep in check, the opposing lineup, they’re in every game and have a shot to win every time they take the field.  Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun having career years doesn't hurt either, but I have to believe their at-bats are helped by the knowledge that the offense doesn’t need to score 8 runs to win a game.

Marcum has been the best of the Brewers revamped starting staff, posting a 2.68 ERA, leading the team in strikeouts, and averaging just over 6 innings per outing.  Young stud Gallardo started the season shakily but is rounding into form with an 8-3 record and a 3.96 ERA.  Greinke had some rust to shake off after missing the first portion of the year with a broken rib, but like Gallardo, he is finding his rhythm, posting quality starts in his last three outings.  Wolf, who would be a very good #3 pitcher on any team, is a tremendous #4 starter and has been the rock solid innings eater you need out of the back end of the rotation, averaging 6 innings per outing and posting a 3.49 ERA.  Even Chris Narveson, who many regarded as just the temporary fifth starter, has been a pleasant surprise.  He’s made all of his starts, posted a decent 4.32 ERA, and consistently goes fairly deep into games.

With an underwhelming bullpen, the Brewer starters have to go deep into games and allow minimal damage while they’re in, which is exactly what they’ve done.  It keeps the bullpen fresh and reduces the burden on the less proven arms of the Milwaukee relievers.

With an offense that boasts superstars Fielder and Braun, rising star Rickie Weeks, and established good hitters like Corey Hart and Casey McGehee, the Brewers have just about everything needed for a deep playoff run, though the bullpen may ultimately be their undoing should they make it there.  But the talent of their offense and the consistency of their starting pitching make the playoffs a very real possibility for a fan base that's reached the postseason just once in the past 27 years.  And a mere appearance in the postseason will be just fine with me.

--from @AdamHocking

(image from flickr.com)

To Trade or Not to Trade

The Milwaukee Brewers are going to lose Prince Fielder.  At this point it’s just a question of when.  The power hitting first baseman’s contract is up at the end of this year, and it’s considered a foregone conclusion that the Brewers won’t be able to match the big money teams competing for Fielder’s services.  Now what the Brewers have to decide is the potential value of a playoff run this year versus restocking the team for the future.

If the Brewers are out of the playoff picture around the trade deadline, the solution is clear: Trade Fielder because this year is a wash anyway.  But, if as most people predict, the Brewers are competing for the Central Division title, or at least a Wild Card, the equation becomes much more complicated.

Keep in mind the Brewers have made the playoffs just once since 1982.  This is a fan base and a franchise starved for postseason success.  Even if there are some great trade offers for Fielder, they will likely include a lot of young prospects, players who won’t be able to help the Brewers this year.  Trading Fielder mid-season would mean losing the linchpin of the Brewers lineup and almost certainly would sacrifice short-term success for long-term gains.

Is one year of possible playoff glory with Fielder worth losing him for nothing?  Is it worth sacrificing a potential large return on the trade market for one special season?  I say yes.  Keeping Fielder in the event the Brewers are competitive is the correct decision.

Trading for prospects is always a gamble; there’s no guarantee that whatever package Milwaukee could get would bear fruit down the line.  What is a guarantee is that Prince Fielder will hit, and combined with Ryan Braun, Milwaukee has one of the best 1-2 hitting combos in all of baseball.

It’s a gamble to essentially ensure that one of your superstar players will leave your team without cashing out his value.  But when the potential cost of trading that player is postseason success, you have to take that risk.  The Brewers could be special this year, and Fielder is a central component of that possibility.  For a team that has been so bad for so long, instant gratification is important.

Thinking like a general manager, my inclination is to get some nice pieces back for Prince.  But thinking like a fan who has tasted the playoffs just once in my lifetime, I have to err on the side of the immediate future.

--from Adam

(image from zimbio.com)

Firing Up the Hot Stove in Milwaukee

After years of chasing their own tail in an effort to assemble a passable pitching staff, the Milwaukee Brewers have finally struck gold.  They were close a few years ago when they acquired C.C. Sabathia and paired him with Ben Sheets, but Sabathia couldn’t resist the paycheck allure of the Big Apple and Sheets couldn’t stay healthy.  After the abbreviated Sabathia era, the Brewers hit the reset button with the laughable trio of Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper, and Dave Bush.  However, prior to last season they acquired veteran pitcher Randy Wolf who was forced to be the number two starter in a weak Brewers rotation.  Wolf was solid, but likely is more of a number three level starter.  Good for Milwaukee, as Wolf provided the Brewers with a good second arm, Yovanni Gallardo was developing into a bona fide ace.  Enter this offseason where the Brewers pulled the trigger on some blockbuster trades, first bringing in former Blue Jays hurler Shaun Marcum, and following that up with a mega-deal for former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt.

The Marcum move alone would have vastly improved the Brewers staff and given them three viable, talented starting pitchers that can keep their team in every game.  Marcum posted a tremendous 3.64 ERA last year, in the loaded AL East.  Now Marcum comes to a much weaker hitting division in the NL Central and should thrive even more than he did last year.

By trading three of their top ten prospects to the Royals, Greinke gives the Brewers a second true ace to pair with Gallardo.  Both guys are capable of carrying a staff and either could be the number one starter.  Gallardo has nasty stuff and flashes great control at times, though he can become a ball throwing machine when he loses focus.  Greinke was good last year, but two years ago he posted a sub-1 ERA through about the first half of the season, which is essentially unheard of.  Like Marcum, Greinke comes from the AL to the NL.  Without the designated hitter and having to face an extra competent bat every time through the lineup, his numbers should improve accordingly.

Another element to consider is that Greinke has struggled with depression and anxiety.  Moving to small market Milwaukee where expectations are low and fans are supportive should really help Greinke’s mindset, and the Brewers always have one of the tightest knit locker rooms in baseball.  Greinke was rumored to perhaps be headed to New York, but the enormous spot light of the big city would have been a real test for Greinke’s mentality.  Now coming to Milwaukee, Greinke can pitch in much more anonymity than would be possible virtually any place outside of Kansas City.

Betancourt is a power hitting shortstop that replaces Alcides Escobar, who was traded to the Royals as part of the package that brought Greinke to town.  Betancourt adds pop to an already powerful offense that features Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Casey McGhee, and Corey Hart.  The Brewers' potentially potent offense will be backed by a lethal rotation that now boasts four guys who will keep their team in every game.

With the Cardinals and Cubs aging, the Astros rebuilding, and the Pirates being the Pirates, the Brewers have a very good shot to compete with the young and talented Cincinnati Reds for the division title.

The Brewers finished last year 26^th overall in team ERA.  They now have a chance to finish near the top of baseball with their terrific additions, and by bringing back Fielder for another year, the offense should again be very good.  The Crew was 12^th in baseball last year in runs scored, even as Fielder and Braun both had down years.  If those two bounce back and Betancourt plays well, this could easily be a top-ten offense, which could easily be complemented by a top-ten starting rotation.

Things are looking up in Milwaukee.  They may have traded a lot of good prospects, but the Brewers perennially have good prospects and losing records.  Sometimes teams need to turn that young potential into established veteran players, and it was high time for the Brewers to do just that.   The Brewers now have a rotation to battle every team in baseball, rather than a bounty of young up-and-comers that won’t help the team win this year.  In short, the Brewers have had a magnificent offseason that makes at least co-favorites in the NL Central with the Reds and Cardinals.

New to Brew Crew

--from Adam

(image from espn.com)