NFC South: 2011 Division Preview

Atlanta Falcons

Since the latest division realignment, no team has ever repeated as NFC South Champion.  Yet despite that fact, both Adam and I predict the unprecedented.  We both call for the Atlanta Falcons to repeat and claim a hotly contested NFC South crown.

After finishing an NFC-best 13-3 in 2010, the Falcons did not want to mess with formula too much this offseason.  Atlanta made some headlining moves but not sweeping changes like the formerly 11-5 Eagles.  Chief among them was trading away two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and two fourth-round picks to move up in the draft and select Julio Jones.  Though the Falcons are a talented offensive team, they lack big play threats and gain their yards methodically.  Tales out of camp proclaim Jones as the real deal, perhaps just the player Atlanta needs to put them over the top.

Jones becomes a member football’s most balanced offense.  Last year the Falcons’ leading rusher, Michael Turner, ran for 1371 yards while the leading receiver, Roddy White, accumulated 1389.  The judicious Matt Ryan comes off his best year as a pro and looks to make up for an early playoff exit.

Ryan and his offensive mates were let down last year by an overmatched secondary versus the Packers.  The Falcons did not sign anyone directly to the secondary this offseason, but they did acquire one of the most talented pass rushers available, Ray Edwards.  On the other side of John Abraham, Edwards should continue to be blocked by just one man like he grew accustomed to in Minnesota, playing with Jared Allen and the Williams boys.  Improving the pass rush and pressuring quarterbacks should at least partially ease the burden on the secondary.

Biggest Strengths: The Big Three of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White being joined by Julio Jones.

Biggest Weaknesses: Secondary.  If getting torched by Aaron Rodgers for 366 yards and three touchdowns with an 86.1 completion percentage on your home turf isn’t a wakeup call, I don’t know what is.  You can bet the Saints watched that tape.

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, First in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, First in NFC South

New Orleans Saints

Though their regular season was no disappointment, the defending Super Bowl Champion losing a playoff game to a 7-9 team is an absolute embarrassment.  The New Orleans Saints must rebound with a vengeance to put that loss behind them.

I expect nothing less out of the incomparable Drew Brees.  In the perfect match of scheme to players, no one could better execute Sean Payton’s offense and spread the ball around than Brees.  Brees makes it look easy, throwing to receivers Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, and the young, athletic tight end Jimmy Graham.

With Brees getting all the pub, an extremely underrated piece to the Saints’ 2010 Championship puzzle was their running game.  Last season injuries decimated New Orleans’ running backs, but this year they’ve retooled and are ready to run.  After already making one selection in the first round, New Orleans traded up to make a second first-round pick, with which they took Alabama running back Mark Ingram.  His physicality will be a welcome change of pace from the quick Pierre Thomas.  Also in the backfield, New Orleans traded away Reggie Bush this offseason but replaced with him with the same type of player, signing free agent Darren Sproles.

To better combat the bruising Falcons, the Saints made themselves much tougher up front by bringing in two monster defensive tackles: Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers.  Beastly Sedrick Ellis joins those two to form the best defensive tackle rotation in the NFL.  Life should be easier on the edge for the veterans Will Smith and Alex Brown and the Saints’ first first-round pick, rookie Cameron Jordan.

This season Jonathan Vilma should rack up well over 100 tackles since (A) Ellis, Franklin, and Rogers will adeptly occupy blockers in front of him, and (B) the Saints don’t have any other surefire tacklers in the linebacking corps.

My pick for the Saints’ top defensive player, Malcolm Jenkins—who did not play in the playoff loss to the Seahawks—and Tracy Porter make up one half of a very good secondary.  Between last year’s first-round pick, Patrick Robinson, and a few other veterans, the Saints should be able to field a solid second half.

Biggest Strengths: Drew Brees and his toys.

Biggest Weaknesses: Other than Jonathan Vilma, the linebackers don’t blow you away.

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, Second in NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A year ago the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a team that beat everyone on their schedule they should have beaten but no one perhaps they shouldn’t have.  It’ll take winning a few of those games in the latter category if they want to take the NFC South Title.  (Their only win against an above-.500 team last year came Week 17 against the Saints, who rested many of their starters.)

The future is bright in Tampa though.  The Buccaneers are a very young team with a rising star quarterback, Josh Freeman.  In just his second year in the league, Freeman posted a 96 passer rating, throwing 25 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions.  He was also the second-leading rusher among NFL quarterbacks with 364 yards on the ground.  At 6’6”, 250 pounds and with top-5 arm strength, the kid is already awesome and has unlimited potential to boot.  Based on Freeman’s smarts, work ethic, and the situation he currently finds himself in, it’s no stretch to believe Freeman completely fulfills his potential this season.

As for weapons at Freeman’s disposal, Mike Williams had a great rookie season last year, and another 2010 rookie, Arrelious Benn, continues to ascend on the opposite side.  Sammie Stroughter and Michael Spurlock solidly round out the receiving corps.  Over the middle, the Bucs have one of the league’s top tight ends in Kellen Winslow Jr., who despite a reputation for being injury-prone, has played in all sixteen games both of his seasons as a Buccaneer.

Davin Joseph, Jeff Faine, and Donald Penn constitute a sound unit along the offensive line.  They protected well and provided ample running room last year for rookie LeGarrette Blount.  If Blount can repeat his success, the Tampa Bay offense can be very good.

In each of the past two years, Tampa Bay spent their first two draft picks on defensive linemen.  Last year they acquired Gerald McCoy and Brian Price and this year nabbed Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers.  McCoy and Price certainly did not set the world on fire in 2010, so let’s hope those two can progress and the Bucs do a little better with their choices of Clayborn and Bowers this season.

Behind that line of high draft picks though, there’s not much discernable talent on defense.  The team’s leading tackler, Barrett Ruud, departed via free agency; cornerback Ronde Barber is 300 years old; and on the other side of Barber is the talented but complete head case Aqib Talib.

Biggest Strengths: Raheem Morris rallying this young team around Josh Freeman.

Biggest Weaknesses: Inexperience across the board and an overall lack of defensive talent.

Eric’s Prediction: 9-7, Third in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 11-5, Third in NFC South

Carolina Panthers

Lights.  CAM-era.  Action.  (Adam said I had to write that.)

By drafting Cam Newton with the first overall pick, the Carolina Panthers certainly look like they are Newton’s team.  Newton has played well enough in the preseason for that to be the case as well.  What the future holds for Jimmy Clausen, Hill 364’s top quarterback prospect from a year ago, remains to be seen.

The Panthers will surround their rookie signal caller with a modest amount of established players.  One cannot argue with the smash and dash of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  It is up to the Panthers to utilize both runners to the best of their abilities.  Carolina is still searching for the heir apparent to Steve Smith, but for now, Steve Smith will have to do.  Athletic tight end Greg Olsen did not fit in Mike Martz’s offense, so Chicago traded him to Carolina, where he will be a valued safety net for a rookie quarterback learning the NFL ropes.

Defensively, Charles Johnson parlayed an 11.5-sack season out from underneath Julius Peppers’ shadow into a big payday.  We’ll see if he produces at the same clip now that he flies a little less under the radar and teams prepare for him.  I happen to think Jon Beason is a bit overrated as he’s by far the best player on a bad defense, but I will admit that on the Panthers he’s a tackling machine that lays the wood.

Biggest Strengths: Carolina’s offensive line featuring Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah is one of the best in football, and they love blowing open holes for the talented DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Biggest Weaknesses: A recognizable defense, they don’t have it.  If the rookie Cam Newton doesn’t start, their other two options are Jimmy Clausen and Derek Anderson, and neither of those guys instill any confidence whatsoever.

Eric’s Prediction: 1-15, Fourth in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in NFC South

--from @jeuneski

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons gave up two first round picks, a second, and a fourth to move up and select Alabama receiver Julio Jones.  Julio, you better be Jerry Rice my man.  That is a ton to give up, but I’m evaluating the players Atlanta added in this particular draft and not what they may have cost themselves in the long run.

I worry about the pressure on Jones, knowing how much this franchise gave up just for him, but then I realize just what type of player he is.  Jones projects as a Pro Bowl talent at receiver.  If he can stay healthy, he comes into a team that should be a perfect fit for him: opposite All-Pro Roddy White, hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez carves out space in the middle, young star Matt Ryan delivers passes, and perhaps the league’s best trio of running backs in Michael Turner, Jason Snelling, and Jerious Norwood top it off.  In other words, Jones was the icing on the cake of an offense ready to explode.

In the third round Atlanta took inside linebacker Akeem Dent, who has the range to also play outside.  He’s a solid player that could start eventually.

Next, in the fifth round Atlanta selected the jitterbug Jacquizz Rogers; I really like that pick value wise.  Rogers can run between the tackles despite his 5’7” frame, and he has the perfect quickness, shiftiness, and lateral agility to be a slot receiver and kick returner.  Jones and Rodgers make this Falcons team much more explosive on offense.

Other than Jones, Dent, and Rodgers, the Falcons didn’t get much.  I guess you could say they didn’t have huge needs, but they rounded out their draft taking a sixth round kicker, and two seventh rounders on the offensive and defensive lines, respectively.  This team needed help in the pass rush department and in the secondary.  They didn’t get it.

The Falcons’ defense was decent last year, but as we saw in the 48-21 playoff torching to the Packers, it was a unit that needed improvement.  Dent is a nice player, but he does nothing dramatic to improve the Falcon defense.  They needed multiple high picks to make their defense tangibly better, and they didn’t make them.  On the bright side, the addition of Jones and Rodgers may have created the most talented offense in the league.  Perhaps Atlanta figures they aren’t far from winning a Super Bowl, and by loading up on offense, they can afford a so-so defense.  They got great talent but didn’t fill nearly enough needs.

Grade: C

Carolina Panthers

With the number one overall pick you have to draft a potential franchise changer.  Picking first in the draft means shelling out a huge amount of money, so getting a hugely talented player that can drastically alter the fortunes of your franchise is imperative.  Normally that means taking a quarterback because that position impacts the game of football more than any other.  However you feel about Cam Newton, he was the right pick.

Newton was the biggest athletic talent in the draft.  He’s not Vince Young; he’s a better athlete, smarter person, tougher mentally, and better passer.  He’s not Tim Tebow; Newton has much better throwing mechanics, physical stature, and running ability.  What Newton is is a guy that endured a white hot spotlight amidst a college football scandal and still went 14-0 in college football’s toughest conference.  He’s cocky, but that’s what I want from my franchise quarterback.  Newton could bust—that’s always a possibility—but if he works as hard as he can on the mental and technical aspects of the game, he can be a superstar.

All that said, in picking Newton the Panthers still have a ton of needs to address and must decide what to do with last year’s second round pick Jimmy Clausen.  I’ve long been a Clausen proponent, but clearly the Panthers don’t believe in him.  

After Newton the Panthers had no second round pick but two third rounders and grabbed two defensive tackles, addressing a big need.  Terrell McClain is an All-Big East player from South Florida that is stout, and has quick feet.  The Panthers’ next third round pick, Sione Fua from Stanford, is strong, plays with a low base, and is excellent against the run.  The Panthers may not have gotten two star defensive tackles, but they certainly got players who will see the field early and be part of a rotation inside.

Next, in the fourth round the Panthers continued to build their defense by selecting Brandon Hogan, a corner from West Virginia.  He may have been a reach, but certainly corner was a need area.  He’s small but smart, quick, and smooth, perhaps an ideal nickel cover man.

Carolina reached for Hawaii’s jack of all trades, Kealoha Pilares, in the fifth round.  Many thought he might go undrafted, so going in the fifth was a surprise.  Still, if he pans out, he’s a versatile player that can play slot receiver, take handoffs, and perhaps return kicks.

In the sixth round the Panthers added another defender in linebacker Lawrence Wilson.  Though undersized and lacking great athleticism, Wilson is smart, can tackle, and covers extremely well.

This draft is all about Cam Newton.  If he pans out, it’s a huge success; if he busts, it’s an all-time failure.  I liked that they drafted four defensive players that can make the team and contribute in the later rounds, but I didn’t like that they failed to add any dynamic offensive talent to assist Newton.  I like Newton so the grade won’t be horrible, but I think they played it too safe in the rest of the draft.

Grade: C

New Orleans Saints

It’s always hard not to get carried away with a team’s draft anytime they have two first round picks.  You know both players well, have seen them play, and expect them to be starters, perhaps even big-time players.

Cameron Jordan, the defensive end from California, fits a need for the Saints, and getting him at pick 24 was probably a steal.  He was a top-15 or -20 talent who brings pass rush, versatility, and run stuffing ability to an improving defensive line.  Jordan will now join young stud Sedrick Ellis, behemoth Shaun Rogers, and pass rush specialist Will Smith to form an imposing defensive front.

When the Saints won the Super Bowl, a really underrated part of their success was their rushing attack.  They should get back to that formula with the 28th overall pick Mark Ingram.   Solid, balanced, and strong, Ingram has good burst through the hole and excellent vision.  He could start immediately.

Martez Wilson (LB, Illinois) was a really nice addition in the third round.  He’s a tremendous athlete and fits the fast and furious front seven Gregg Williams and the Saints appear to be developing.  Flanking Jonathan Vilma, Wilson has the speed to run with any tight end, rush the passer, and track down running backs.

Louisville corner Johnny Patrick may have been a slight reach in the third round, but he joins Tracy Porter, Jabari Greer, and last year’s top pick Patrick Robinson to form a really deep cornerback group.  Johnny Patrick is a smart corner who is skilled enough to contribute right away and add good depth to an already talented secondary.

After Johnny Patrick the Saints didn’t pick again until the seventh round, but I think they made huge strides with their first four picks.

Cameron Jordan can be a star, and will likely start right away.  Martez Wilson also has a great shot to start, and certainly upgrades the Saints’ linebacking corps.  Johnny Patrick simply adds depth to what is becoming a very good secondary.  These three defensive picks may vault the Saints toward having a truly elite defense.

New Orleans needs almost nothing on offense with Drew Brees, a great offensive line, and an array of talented receivers.  One thing missing was a true feature back, and I believe they got that in spades by selecting Ingram.   The Saints got better everywhere they needed to, and added at least two, maybe four, starting- to star-level players.

Grade: A-

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Just pause and think for a minute about the talent the NFC South added to their division in this draft.  Cameron Jordan, Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, Jacquizz Rogers, Cam Newton, and now the Bucs add Adrian Clayborn, Da’Quan Bowers, and Mason Foster.

Clayborn is going to be good no matter what; I just don’t know if he’ll be great.

Bowers was the steal of the draft in the mid-second round after many thought he could be the first overall pick.  There is concern about his knee, but what player in the NFL won’t have injury issues at some point?

Foster was a tremendous value in the third round.  Scouts love his range, versatility, and playmaking ability, maybe the best 4-3 outside linebacker in the draft.

Luke Stocker is a big bruising tight end from Tennessee that will bring soft hands and physical blocking to an up-and-coming Bucs offense.  Stocker was a good value in the fourth round.

Ahmad Black was nothing but productive as a safety at Florida.  He might not have the combine numbers, but he’s a darn good football player that could start down the line.

Clayborn, Bowers, Foster, Stocker, and Black are all capable of starting, and the first three mentioned could be stars.  The Bucs’ offensive line and skills positions are already young and filled with good players, so the defense was really the area of need, and they addressed it beautifully.

Grade: A

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos

The NFL Draft is coming friends. Even mired in the dark shadows of an NFL lockout I know draft day paints an insuppressible smile all over your delirious faces. The draft makes us all into babbling fools. Every team is a championship contender for that one weekend in April, and that’s okay. In fact, that’s what’s great about the draft. It’s an event specifically geared toward the worst teams in the league. The season is miles away, and in a sense, reality is even farther. For one day, Bills fans can forget how bad they were last year, and how bad they’ll be next year, yet can still make statements like, “Ya know, if we get Cam Newton, I think we’re in the playoffs.”

None of us know how good any of these players will be, but we all have our favorites in mind, guys we want our team to take, and those are usually just the guys we’ve heard of. How many of us screamed bust last year when the Jaguars took Tyson Alualu, even though we’d never seen him play? Conversely, how many of us claimed that Jimmy Clausen or Taylor Mays were steals in the second round? In reality Alualu was very good, while Clausen and Mays did little to justify their second round status.

For fans the draft has little to do with reality and much to do with dreaming big. It’s uninhibited fun where people can get starry eyed about a prospect just because he had a sweet cone drill or get downright furious because their team drafted an edge rusher when they know damn well slot receiver was priority number one. The best part is that nobody really loses on draft day. Fans can spin their draft however they want because players won’t be taking the field for months.

With this upcoming series I want to look at each NFL team, their most pressing needs, and which players they might target to address those needs. I’m not going to tell you if the Falcons might nab a great special team’s gunner in the sixth round. I’m going to focus on the first round prospects, the players who might be available for each team with their top pick. I’ll address each team by the order of picks in the first round.

#1 Carolina Panthers

What They Need: The Panthers, frankly, need a lot. Their quarterback situation was a quagmire last year, though I’m not sure they want to jump ship yet on Jimmy Clausen. He wasn’t great, but he wasn’t working with a whole lot of support. The offensive line has talent, and the running backs are the strength of the team. Defensively the Panthers need almost everything. Corners Captain Munnerlyn, Richard Marshall, and Chris Gamble are solid enough. Linebacker Jon Beason is a star. The defensive front is weak, so if they choose to go defense with their top pick, look for them to address the front four.

Who they Might Pick: Carolina could decide to grab a quarterback if new coach Ron Rivera isn’t sold on Clausen. In that case they’ll either go with Blaine Gabbert (considered the most pro-ready, accurate passer) or Cam Newton (the most athletic/exciting player in the draft). I personally think the Panthers will go defense with this pick, and as I said, that likely means drafting a defensive lineman, where Nick Fairley is the most impressive prospect. He’s a rock in the middle that can stuff the run and is the rare pass rushing force from the tackle spot. Marcell Dareus from Alabama is also a top possibility, though he isn’t the same athlete as Fairley. If Carolina wants a pure pass rusher, look no further than Clemson defensive end Da’Quan Bowers. Bowers is a ridiculous athlete who turns his physical prowess into tremendous production.

My Advice: Give Clausen another year and see what he can do. Gabbert and Newton are far from slam dunk prospects. Take a more sure thing, and if Clausen stinks this year, get your quarterback next year. I would take Fairley. He’ll improve Beason’s life and pressure opposing passers. We saw what Ndamukong Suh meant to the Lions last year; perhaps Fairley could have a similar impact.

#2 Denver Broncos

What They Need: Similar to Carolina, the Broncos are a team with an unsettled quarterback situation and a new coaching regime. I have no idea if Head Coach John Fox likes Tim Tebow, but he’s said that Kyle Orton will be his starter. The Broncos’ offensive line is talented, and Knowshon Moreno is the future at running back. Brandon Lloyd had a breakout year at wideout, but he is the Broncos’ only real threat in the receiving corps. Since I don’t think quarterback is really a draft option for Denver and receivers generally don’t go second overall, defense is probably the direction to go. Elvis Dumervil is a stud pass rusher and should be back healthy after missing the entire 2010 season. 2009 first round pick Robert Ayers is a young prospect who could turn into a sack artist as well. Denver runs a 3-4 system, so drafting a defensive lineman typically means going after a big, immovable, two-gap player. There aren’t any of those type of prospects that could go this high; Fairley's athleticism is better suited for the 4-3. Denver's secondary is one of the oldest in the league and could use an infusion of talent.

Who They Might Pick: Since pass rush is an area of relative strength, and I doubt Denver will go offense with this pick, this selection basically comes down to a couple guys. Marcell Dareus is seen as a guy that could be a 4-3 defensive tackle or a 3-4 end. He’s a strong, fluid, and balanced athlete. He’s not flashy, but he won’t be overpowered, and he’s athletic for his size. Dareus would represent an incremental improvement to Denver’s front. The guy I love is LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson. His measurables are ridiculous: 6’2”, 219 pounds, and he runs a 4.3 40-yard dash. He’s as strong as a safety and fast as a corner. Peterson also isn’t just a combine freak. In the SEC he covered the likes of AJ Green and Julio Jones, both top-15 prospects, and did so admirably. If Denver drafts the LSU Tiger, they’ll be taking away half the field for the next decade.

My Advice: Take Peterson; look what Darrelle Revis has meant for the Jets. I believe that Peterson will be one of the best ten corners in the league the moment he steps on an NFL field, and he could eventually be the best cover man in the league, especially after he studies under Champ Bailey.

--from Adam