As a sports fan and a lover of the NBA, let me first say, hell yes! What a great matchup. Sure the Lakers and Heat might have moved the meter more, but let’s face it, the storylines wouldn’t have been as good. The debate between Kobe Bryant and LeBron James as best player in the game is over; Bryant is past his prime. On top of that, the Lakers are secure in their championship legacy and have absolutely nothing to prove.
By contrast, there are perhaps no two stars in the league more in need of a ring, not for their legacies, but for the public perception of their legacies, than James and Dirk Nowitzki. Whether or not Nowitzki wins a championship shouldn’t diminish his greatness as an unstoppable offensive force, and talk of James’ legacy at the age of 26 is a bit premature. Still, this may well be Dirk’s last shot at a championship, and LeBron has already been in the league eight years. Titles don’t grow on trees; you better get them when you can.
When predicting the Finals I’d like to keep it simple, but this series is anything but.
Sure, the Heat have three of the four best players in the series, but the Mavericks have perhaps the best player in the world right now in Nowitzki. You could argue simply to double-team Dirk, but that is probably the worst strategy one could devise. The 7’ Nowitzki can see over his defenders, is a very good passer, and the best group of three point shooters in the league surround him. Jason Terry is hitting 46% of his three point shots in these playoffs, Jason Kidd 36%, and Peja Stojakovic 40%. Then if you don’t double Nowitzki, it’s an automatic two points because no person on earth can guard him or his fadeaway, a fadeaway so sweet it could shut Charles Barkley up.
At the same time, the Heat are probably the best equipped team in the league to defend the Mavericks on the three point line. James’ versatility on defense and Wade’s speed and strength as a defender form a combination reminiscent of what Phil Jackson used to call his “pit bull” defense—when he would unleash Scottie Pippen and Michael Jordan and create havoc for opposing shooters. The Heat will likely deny Nowitzki the ball as much as possible, because when he has it, he either gets a good shot for his self or a teammate. The return of Udonis Haslem will help in checking Dirk; Haslem is strong and pretty athletic but still gives up four inches to the sweet-shooting German.
When the Heat have the ball the Mavericks face many difficulties as well. Jason Kidd won’t be able to stay with Dwyane Wade, so DeShawn Stevenson may draw that assignment. However Stevenson offers nothing on offense, so Kidd and Terry may well have to exhaust themselves guarding Wade. That means Wade will be in the paint early and often, where he thrives, and if he and James get going, it will be tough to stop. The Heat are best when LeBron is distributing, rebounding, defending, and scoring when he needs to while Wade simply attacks the basket and looks to play the Kobe role: straight scorer.
Chris Bosh also has an enormous role to play. The Mavs could put Tyson Chandler on him, but then only Nowitzki is left to defend the rim. That’s bad on two fronts: first, that Nowitzki really can’t protect the rim, and second, he will get into foul trouble if he tries. So I imagine Dirk will check Bosh, and Bosh has a definite quickness advantage there.
Both teams are on a mission at this point, and both teams are playing their best ball of the season. The Heat have been hated all year, the Mavs doubted every step of the way. Everyone loves a winner, and a championship gives both teams the chance to forever shake the various labels that have dogged them.
What we’ve seen in these playoffs is that all the teams are very evenly matched, and most games will come down to who executes in the last four minutes. The Mavs are the deeper squad and have more overall threats, but I’m more frightened of James and Wade to finish a game. My guess is that, much like in the Bulls series when he covered Derrick Rose to closeout games, LeBron will cover Dirk at the end. They won’t double him, and eventually Nowitzki will miss some shots. He’s made incredible shots all postseason, but his degree of difficulty has been enormous. Meanwhile the Heat have two guys that can get to the hoop and get high percentage shots and free throws whenever they choose.
LeBron’s defensive versatility was the reason Miami beat Chicago, and his offensive versatility, combined with Wade’s matchup advantage, is the reason they’ll win this series. It will be enthralling to watch. We’ve got four All-Stars and three of the NBA’s top-7 players in this series. We’ve got a team in the Mavericks that have played some of the best offensive ball I’ve seen in recent years going up against the clamp-down, defensive Heat.
Ultimately though, one team has LeBron, and the other doesn’t. I guess it is simple after all.
Prediction: Heat in 7
--from Adam
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