NFC South: 2011 Division Preview

Atlanta Falcons

Since the latest division realignment, no team has ever repeated as NFC South Champion.  Yet despite that fact, both Adam and I predict the unprecedented.  We both call for the Atlanta Falcons to repeat and claim a hotly contested NFC South crown.

After finishing an NFC-best 13-3 in 2010, the Falcons did not want to mess with formula too much this offseason.  Atlanta made some headlining moves but not sweeping changes like the formerly 11-5 Eagles.  Chief among them was trading away two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and two fourth-round picks to move up in the draft and select Julio Jones.  Though the Falcons are a talented offensive team, they lack big play threats and gain their yards methodically.  Tales out of camp proclaim Jones as the real deal, perhaps just the player Atlanta needs to put them over the top.

Jones becomes a member football’s most balanced offense.  Last year the Falcons’ leading rusher, Michael Turner, ran for 1371 yards while the leading receiver, Roddy White, accumulated 1389.  The judicious Matt Ryan comes off his best year as a pro and looks to make up for an early playoff exit.

Ryan and his offensive mates were let down last year by an overmatched secondary versus the Packers.  The Falcons did not sign anyone directly to the secondary this offseason, but they did acquire one of the most talented pass rushers available, Ray Edwards.  On the other side of John Abraham, Edwards should continue to be blocked by just one man like he grew accustomed to in Minnesota, playing with Jared Allen and the Williams boys.  Improving the pass rush and pressuring quarterbacks should at least partially ease the burden on the secondary.

Biggest Strengths: The Big Three of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White being joined by Julio Jones.

Biggest Weaknesses: Secondary.  If getting torched by Aaron Rodgers for 366 yards and three touchdowns with an 86.1 completion percentage on your home turf isn’t a wakeup call, I don’t know what is.  You can bet the Saints watched that tape.

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, First in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, First in NFC South

New Orleans Saints

Though their regular season was no disappointment, the defending Super Bowl Champion losing a playoff game to a 7-9 team is an absolute embarrassment.  The New Orleans Saints must rebound with a vengeance to put that loss behind them.

I expect nothing less out of the incomparable Drew Brees.  In the perfect match of scheme to players, no one could better execute Sean Payton’s offense and spread the ball around than Brees.  Brees makes it look easy, throwing to receivers Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, and the young, athletic tight end Jimmy Graham.

With Brees getting all the pub, an extremely underrated piece to the Saints’ 2010 Championship puzzle was their running game.  Last season injuries decimated New Orleans’ running backs, but this year they’ve retooled and are ready to run.  After already making one selection in the first round, New Orleans traded up to make a second first-round pick, with which they took Alabama running back Mark Ingram.  His physicality will be a welcome change of pace from the quick Pierre Thomas.  Also in the backfield, New Orleans traded away Reggie Bush this offseason but replaced with him with the same type of player, signing free agent Darren Sproles.

To better combat the bruising Falcons, the Saints made themselves much tougher up front by bringing in two monster defensive tackles: Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers.  Beastly Sedrick Ellis joins those two to form the best defensive tackle rotation in the NFL.  Life should be easier on the edge for the veterans Will Smith and Alex Brown and the Saints’ first first-round pick, rookie Cameron Jordan.

This season Jonathan Vilma should rack up well over 100 tackles since (A) Ellis, Franklin, and Rogers will adeptly occupy blockers in front of him, and (B) the Saints don’t have any other surefire tacklers in the linebacking corps.

My pick for the Saints’ top defensive player, Malcolm Jenkins—who did not play in the playoff loss to the Seahawks—and Tracy Porter make up one half of a very good secondary.  Between last year’s first-round pick, Patrick Robinson, and a few other veterans, the Saints should be able to field a solid second half.

Biggest Strengths: Drew Brees and his toys.

Biggest Weaknesses: Other than Jonathan Vilma, the linebackers don’t blow you away.

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, Second in NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A year ago the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a team that beat everyone on their schedule they should have beaten but no one perhaps they shouldn’t have.  It’ll take winning a few of those games in the latter category if they want to take the NFC South Title.  (Their only win against an above-.500 team last year came Week 17 against the Saints, who rested many of their starters.)

The future is bright in Tampa though.  The Buccaneers are a very young team with a rising star quarterback, Josh Freeman.  In just his second year in the league, Freeman posted a 96 passer rating, throwing 25 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions.  He was also the second-leading rusher among NFL quarterbacks with 364 yards on the ground.  At 6’6”, 250 pounds and with top-5 arm strength, the kid is already awesome and has unlimited potential to boot.  Based on Freeman’s smarts, work ethic, and the situation he currently finds himself in, it’s no stretch to believe Freeman completely fulfills his potential this season.

As for weapons at Freeman’s disposal, Mike Williams had a great rookie season last year, and another 2010 rookie, Arrelious Benn, continues to ascend on the opposite side.  Sammie Stroughter and Michael Spurlock solidly round out the receiving corps.  Over the middle, the Bucs have one of the league’s top tight ends in Kellen Winslow Jr., who despite a reputation for being injury-prone, has played in all sixteen games both of his seasons as a Buccaneer.

Davin Joseph, Jeff Faine, and Donald Penn constitute a sound unit along the offensive line.  They protected well and provided ample running room last year for rookie LeGarrette Blount.  If Blount can repeat his success, the Tampa Bay offense can be very good.

In each of the past two years, Tampa Bay spent their first two draft picks on defensive linemen.  Last year they acquired Gerald McCoy and Brian Price and this year nabbed Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers.  McCoy and Price certainly did not set the world on fire in 2010, so let’s hope those two can progress and the Bucs do a little better with their choices of Clayborn and Bowers this season.

Behind that line of high draft picks though, there’s not much discernable talent on defense.  The team’s leading tackler, Barrett Ruud, departed via free agency; cornerback Ronde Barber is 300 years old; and on the other side of Barber is the talented but complete head case Aqib Talib.

Biggest Strengths: Raheem Morris rallying this young team around Josh Freeman.

Biggest Weaknesses: Inexperience across the board and an overall lack of defensive talent.

Eric’s Prediction: 9-7, Third in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 11-5, Third in NFC South

Carolina Panthers

Lights.  CAM-era.  Action.  (Adam said I had to write that.)

By drafting Cam Newton with the first overall pick, the Carolina Panthers certainly look like they are Newton’s team.  Newton has played well enough in the preseason for that to be the case as well.  What the future holds for Jimmy Clausen, Hill 364’s top quarterback prospect from a year ago, remains to be seen.

The Panthers will surround their rookie signal caller with a modest amount of established players.  One cannot argue with the smash and dash of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  It is up to the Panthers to utilize both runners to the best of their abilities.  Carolina is still searching for the heir apparent to Steve Smith, but for now, Steve Smith will have to do.  Athletic tight end Greg Olsen did not fit in Mike Martz’s offense, so Chicago traded him to Carolina, where he will be a valued safety net for a rookie quarterback learning the NFL ropes.

Defensively, Charles Johnson parlayed an 11.5-sack season out from underneath Julius Peppers’ shadow into a big payday.  We’ll see if he produces at the same clip now that he flies a little less under the radar and teams prepare for him.  I happen to think Jon Beason is a bit overrated as he’s by far the best player on a bad defense, but I will admit that on the Panthers he’s a tackling machine that lays the wood.

Biggest Strengths: Carolina’s offensive line featuring Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah is one of the best in football, and they love blowing open holes for the talented DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Biggest Weaknesses: A recognizable defense, they don’t have it.  If the rookie Cam Newton doesn’t start, their other two options are Jimmy Clausen and Derek Anderson, and neither of those guys instill any confidence whatsoever.

Eric’s Prediction: 1-15, Fourth in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in NFC South

--from @jeuneski

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons gave up two first round picks, a second, and a fourth to move up and select Alabama receiver Julio Jones.  Julio, you better be Jerry Rice my man.  That is a ton to give up, but I’m evaluating the players Atlanta added in this particular draft and not what they may have cost themselves in the long run.

I worry about the pressure on Jones, knowing how much this franchise gave up just for him, but then I realize just what type of player he is.  Jones projects as a Pro Bowl talent at receiver.  If he can stay healthy, he comes into a team that should be a perfect fit for him: opposite All-Pro Roddy White, hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez carves out space in the middle, young star Matt Ryan delivers passes, and perhaps the league’s best trio of running backs in Michael Turner, Jason Snelling, and Jerious Norwood top it off.  In other words, Jones was the icing on the cake of an offense ready to explode.

In the third round Atlanta took inside linebacker Akeem Dent, who has the range to also play outside.  He’s a solid player that could start eventually.

Next, in the fifth round Atlanta selected the jitterbug Jacquizz Rogers; I really like that pick value wise.  Rogers can run between the tackles despite his 5’7” frame, and he has the perfect quickness, shiftiness, and lateral agility to be a slot receiver and kick returner.  Jones and Rodgers make this Falcons team much more explosive on offense.

Other than Jones, Dent, and Rodgers, the Falcons didn’t get much.  I guess you could say they didn’t have huge needs, but they rounded out their draft taking a sixth round kicker, and two seventh rounders on the offensive and defensive lines, respectively.  This team needed help in the pass rush department and in the secondary.  They didn’t get it.

The Falcons’ defense was decent last year, but as we saw in the 48-21 playoff torching to the Packers, it was a unit that needed improvement.  Dent is a nice player, but he does nothing dramatic to improve the Falcon defense.  They needed multiple high picks to make their defense tangibly better, and they didn’t make them.  On the bright side, the addition of Jones and Rodgers may have created the most talented offense in the league.  Perhaps Atlanta figures they aren’t far from winning a Super Bowl, and by loading up on offense, they can afford a so-so defense.  They got great talent but didn’t fill nearly enough needs.

Grade: C

Carolina Panthers

With the number one overall pick you have to draft a potential franchise changer.  Picking first in the draft means shelling out a huge amount of money, so getting a hugely talented player that can drastically alter the fortunes of your franchise is imperative.  Normally that means taking a quarterback because that position impacts the game of football more than any other.  However you feel about Cam Newton, he was the right pick.

Newton was the biggest athletic talent in the draft.  He’s not Vince Young; he’s a better athlete, smarter person, tougher mentally, and better passer.  He’s not Tim Tebow; Newton has much better throwing mechanics, physical stature, and running ability.  What Newton is is a guy that endured a white hot spotlight amidst a college football scandal and still went 14-0 in college football’s toughest conference.  He’s cocky, but that’s what I want from my franchise quarterback.  Newton could bust—that’s always a possibility—but if he works as hard as he can on the mental and technical aspects of the game, he can be a superstar.

All that said, in picking Newton the Panthers still have a ton of needs to address and must decide what to do with last year’s second round pick Jimmy Clausen.  I’ve long been a Clausen proponent, but clearly the Panthers don’t believe in him.  

After Newton the Panthers had no second round pick but two third rounders and grabbed two defensive tackles, addressing a big need.  Terrell McClain is an All-Big East player from South Florida that is stout, and has quick feet.  The Panthers’ next third round pick, Sione Fua from Stanford, is strong, plays with a low base, and is excellent against the run.  The Panthers may not have gotten two star defensive tackles, but they certainly got players who will see the field early and be part of a rotation inside.

Next, in the fourth round the Panthers continued to build their defense by selecting Brandon Hogan, a corner from West Virginia.  He may have been a reach, but certainly corner was a need area.  He’s small but smart, quick, and smooth, perhaps an ideal nickel cover man.

Carolina reached for Hawaii’s jack of all trades, Kealoha Pilares, in the fifth round.  Many thought he might go undrafted, so going in the fifth was a surprise.  Still, if he pans out, he’s a versatile player that can play slot receiver, take handoffs, and perhaps return kicks.

In the sixth round the Panthers added another defender in linebacker Lawrence Wilson.  Though undersized and lacking great athleticism, Wilson is smart, can tackle, and covers extremely well.

This draft is all about Cam Newton.  If he pans out, it’s a huge success; if he busts, it’s an all-time failure.  I liked that they drafted four defensive players that can make the team and contribute in the later rounds, but I didn’t like that they failed to add any dynamic offensive talent to assist Newton.  I like Newton so the grade won’t be horrible, but I think they played it too safe in the rest of the draft.

Grade: C

New Orleans Saints

It’s always hard not to get carried away with a team’s draft anytime they have two first round picks.  You know both players well, have seen them play, and expect them to be starters, perhaps even big-time players.

Cameron Jordan, the defensive end from California, fits a need for the Saints, and getting him at pick 24 was probably a steal.  He was a top-15 or -20 talent who brings pass rush, versatility, and run stuffing ability to an improving defensive line.  Jordan will now join young stud Sedrick Ellis, behemoth Shaun Rogers, and pass rush specialist Will Smith to form an imposing defensive front.

When the Saints won the Super Bowl, a really underrated part of their success was their rushing attack.  They should get back to that formula with the 28th overall pick Mark Ingram.   Solid, balanced, and strong, Ingram has good burst through the hole and excellent vision.  He could start immediately.

Martez Wilson (LB, Illinois) was a really nice addition in the third round.  He’s a tremendous athlete and fits the fast and furious front seven Gregg Williams and the Saints appear to be developing.  Flanking Jonathan Vilma, Wilson has the speed to run with any tight end, rush the passer, and track down running backs.

Louisville corner Johnny Patrick may have been a slight reach in the third round, but he joins Tracy Porter, Jabari Greer, and last year’s top pick Patrick Robinson to form a really deep cornerback group.  Johnny Patrick is a smart corner who is skilled enough to contribute right away and add good depth to an already talented secondary.

After Johnny Patrick the Saints didn’t pick again until the seventh round, but I think they made huge strides with their first four picks.

Cameron Jordan can be a star, and will likely start right away.  Martez Wilson also has a great shot to start, and certainly upgrades the Saints’ linebacking corps.  Johnny Patrick simply adds depth to what is becoming a very good secondary.  These three defensive picks may vault the Saints toward having a truly elite defense.

New Orleans needs almost nothing on offense with Drew Brees, a great offensive line, and an array of talented receivers.  One thing missing was a true feature back, and I believe they got that in spades by selecting Ingram.   The Saints got better everywhere they needed to, and added at least two, maybe four, starting- to star-level players.

Grade: A-

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Just pause and think for a minute about the talent the NFC South added to their division in this draft.  Cameron Jordan, Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, Jacquizz Rogers, Cam Newton, and now the Bucs add Adrian Clayborn, Da’Quan Bowers, and Mason Foster.

Clayborn is going to be good no matter what; I just don’t know if he’ll be great.

Bowers was the steal of the draft in the mid-second round after many thought he could be the first overall pick.  There is concern about his knee, but what player in the NFL won’t have injury issues at some point?

Foster was a tremendous value in the third round.  Scouts love his range, versatility, and playmaking ability, maybe the best 4-3 outside linebacker in the draft.

Luke Stocker is a big bruising tight end from Tennessee that will bring soft hands and physical blocking to an up-and-coming Bucs offense.  Stocker was a good value in the fourth round.

Ahmad Black was nothing but productive as a safety at Florida.  He might not have the combine numbers, but he’s a darn good football player that could start down the line.

Clayborn, Bowers, Foster, Stocker, and Black are all capable of starting, and the first three mentioned could be stars.  The Bucs’ offensive line and skills positions are already young and filled with good players, so the defense was really the area of need, and they addressed it beautifully.

Grade: A

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers

#19 New York Giants

What They Need: When the Giants dethroned the undefeated Patriots in the 2008 Super Bowl, they did so on the strength of tenacious offensive and defensive lines.  Many of the same players remain, but those units haven’t been as good the past couple of years.  I don’t know that they necessarily need to address those positions with draft choices, but they need to re-emphasize the importance of a punishing rushing attack and a pressure cooker pass rush.  Eli Manning is not great, but he’s good and in his prime, so there’s no need to look to the future at quarterback.  Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, and Mario Manningham represent a really talented young receiving corps, so I can’t envision the Giants looking to add a player to that already stacked group either.  The running back position is also in good hands with Ahmad Bradshaw, who had a true breakout year last season, and Brandon Jacobs, who averaged a bruising 5.6 yards per carry.  As mentioned, the offensive line has lacked a certain punch recently, and maybe that’s because some key guys are getting older.  Center Shaun O’Hara is still a good player, but he’s 33.  Guard Rich Seubert is 32, and the tackle position probably could use an upgrade between David Diehl, Will Beatty, and injury prone Kareem McKenzie.  Switching to the defensive side of the ball, I still like the personnel they have up front.  Justin Tuck is a freak combination of size, strength, and agility.  Mathias Kiwanuka has pass rush ability but has had issues with injuries.  If last year’s top pick Jason Pierre-Paul can learn the mental aspect of the game, there’ll be no stopping him.  He’s as dynamic as they come in terms of speed off the edge.  Chris Canty and Barry Cofield are solid players inside, but perhaps New York could look at the defensive tackle spot for an upgrade.  The linebackers are a pedestrian group, but given the Giants’ 4-3 system and the dearth of 4-3 linebackers in this year’s draft, they won’t go in that direction here.  Corey Webster and Aaron Ross form a good but not great corner duo.  Kenny Phillips has gobs of talent at safety and his partner in crime Antrel Rolle has a nose for the football.

Who They Might Pick: I see this pick being either an offensive or defensive tackle, maybe a cornerback.  Tyron Smith the offensive tackle from USC might still be on the board, but he’s more of a finesse pass blocker, and the Giants really like to establish their running game.  Boston College’s Anthony Costanzo is a bit like Smith in that he’s more equipped to pass block.  I see a guy like Wisconsin tackle Gabe Carimi as a nice fit for New York’s offensive line.  Mammoth Mississippi State tackle Derek Sherrod could be a possibility too as he has the size to punish people in the run game, but he’s not as skilled as Carimi.  If they look at defensive tackle they could eye Phil Taylor (Baylor), Corey Liuget (Illinois), Stephen Paea (Oregon State), or Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple).  The Giants like to rotate bodies a lot on the defensive front and even interchange defensive ends and defensive tackles, so they could look to add a guy that can play anywhere on the line.  Adrian Clayborn from Iowa, JJ Watt from Wisconsin, or Cameron Jordan from Cal would all be nice, inside-outside linemen.  The usual suspects of Jimmy Smith from Colorado, Aaron Williams from Texas, and maybe Davon House from New Mexico State could be cornerback possibilities.

My Advice: This team isn’t far away from being really good.  The Cowboys and Eagles are both teams that want to throw the ball, and adding to the defensive line is a good way to counteract those teams.  I think the offense is fine, and addressing the offensive line later on in the draft is a sound strategy.  With this pick, the Giants should nab JJ Watt.  He’s 6’5”, 290 pounds, and athletic for his size.  He ran a 4.8 40.  Also incredibly strong (34 reps of 225 pounds), Watt can still fill out his long frame.  Usually guys that have great measureables lack a great motor or intensity, but that’s actually Watt’s biggest strength.  The guy never quits on a play; he has tremendous instincts; and coming from the Big Ten, he’s used to battling NFL-sized offensive linemen.  He will play inside and out, rush the passer, and attack the run.

With the nineteenth selection, the New York Giants pick JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin.

#20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What They Need: I love everything about this young team.  Their coach Raheem Morris has a tremendous energy about him and he has his team ready to play every time they hit the field.  On offense I don’t think many additions are needed, just time for all the young talent to meld together.  Josh Freeman is going to be a star at quarterback and he’s just 23.  Last year’s rookie sensation LeGarette Blount locks down the running situation, and Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn are big-time talents both entering their second season as wideouts.  Kellen Winslow is still just 27 years old and is a major talent at tight end.  Jeff Faine, Davin Joseph, Donald Penn, and Jeremy Trueblood represent four very good starters along the offensive line, and I would imagine they believe that fifth starter can be found in a later round or is already on the roster.  Defensively this team has a lot to like as well.  Gerald McCoy is going to be a stud at defensive tackle, and right next to him is last year’s second round pick Brian Price.  Barrett Ruud is a tackling machine at middle linebacker, though he could use some help outside.  Aqib Talib is a tremendous young corner that can’t seem to stay out of trouble off the field.  Another cornerback could help, and I think the safety position is relatively set.

Who They Might Pick: I think this pick almost definitely comes on the defensive side of the ball, which means either a corner or a defensive end.  The Bucs run a 4-3, and I think adding a dynamic pass rusher to their nice young defensive tackle duo could make this a fearsome, young defense.  If Cameron Jordan is available he would be a steal; he’s a projected top-15 talent.  Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue would also be a really good pick.  He’s more of a pure speed rusher than Jordan, albeit not quite the same all-around player.  Cameron Heyward from Ohio State is a thought as well, though he’s more a tweener between end and tackle.  Any cornerback they could get here, unless Jimmy Smith falls to this spot, would be a reach.

My Advice: Take Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue.  The guy ran a 4.6 40 and pushed out 31 reps of 225 pounds.  He’s known as an effort player, but with those Combine numbers he clearly has the skills to match the motor.  Jordan is less of a pure pass rusher than Kerrigan, who compiled a career total of 33 sacks at Purdue with 12 and 13 in the last two years respectively.  At 6’4” 270 he has the prototype size for a 4-3 end, and he has the strength to hold up against the run as well.

For the twentieth pick, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue.

--from Adam

(first image from ftrp.wordpress.com, second from rivals.yahoo.com)