Super Bowl XLVI Pick-Down

With a heavy heart this 49er fan must prognosticate the outcome of the Super Bowl thinking of what could have been. But the Giants and Patriots earned their way to the big game, and to the victors go the nauseating amount of attention.

Speaking of nauseating, is it just me, or is the idea that the Giants are the “red-hot” team kind of a misnomer? The Patriots have won ten consecutive games and are 15-3. The Giants have won five-straight and are 11-7. I think people simply can’t resist comparing this matchup and this Giants team to the one that beat up Tom Brady in the 2008 Super Bowl. That’s a mistake.

New England is a completely different team from the one that nearly captured perfection. They don’t have Randy Moss, and their offense is not at all structured around the vertical passing game. The Giants' strength, their pass rush, is most effective when teams want to go deep down the field and the quarterback has to hold the ball longer.

I think in this game you will (1) See the Pats make a concerted effort to run the ball, and (2) Use jumbo and max protect packages even when throwing the ball.

Rob Gronkowski is not going to be 100%, yet I would imagine he’ll be ready to make some plays in the first half, and then his ankle will stiffen over the elongated Super Bowl half-time. I expect New England to feed Gronk when he’s feeling good, and then switch over to Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Deion Branch later on.

New England has a solid offensive line, and with maximum protection and Brady dialed in, I think they carve up the Giants' suspect linebacking and secondary groups. Everyone seems to think that the Patriots can’t win unless Gronkowski has 9 catches for 150 yards and 2 scores, but they have plenty of other options.

Wes Welker had 122 catches, 1,569 yards and 9 touchdowns this year. Hernandez had 79 grabs for over 900 yards and 7 scores. Meanwhile, Deion Branch chipped in 51 receptions for 700 yards and 5 end zone trips. Gronkowski is important, but he is not the end-all be-all for New England.

When New York has the ball the temptation is to think Eli Manning will go up and down the field on what has statistically been an awful Patriots defense. Manning will no doubt get his yards and make his share of plays, but New England’s defense is as healthy as it’s been all year. Patrick Chung is back in the mix at safety, as is play-making linebacker Brandon Spikes. I think New England will load up to stop the run in an effort to make Manning beat them. As good as Manning has been, I think New England will take their chances in a shootout between he and Brady.

Vince Wilfork is unblockable right now. He should have a huge impact against the run and even collapse the pocket around Manning. Under pressure, Manning has a tendency for making bad decisions. He will give the defense a chance to take the ball away, and I expect New England to capitalize.

Finally, I think Brady with his mastery of the short passing game can win the time of possession battle and wear down the New York pass rush, thus neutralizing the Giants' greatest strength and keeping Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham on the bench.

The Giants are a good football team, but they lost seven games this year for a reason; they are inconsistent. I think the bye week slows their momentum, and I also think Brady and Bill Belichick just aren’t going to lose another Super Bowl to the same team. Gimme the Pats, and screw the damn Giants.

Prediction: New England 34 – New York 27

--from @AdamHocking

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Giants vs. Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
	Adam	Eric
Conference Championship Record	0-2	1-1
Conference Championship Points	-8	8
Total Points	156	190
Playoff Record	5-5	5-5
Combined Record (Regular Season and Playoffs)	163-103	185-81

AFC East: 2011 Division Preview

New England Patriots
 

It seems weird to say because the New England Patriots have played at such a high level over the past few years, but this team hasn’t won the Super Bowl in six seasons, and that’s a disappointment.  Even last year, after rolling to a 14-2 record the usually clutch Pats failed to get it done in the playoffs.  It’s high time for Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and company to get back to football’s biggest stage.
 

A stable of talent surrounds the ever all-world Brady: Deion Branch, Wes Welker, second year tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, young guns Brandon Tate and Taylor Price, plus the high profile Chad Ochocinco.  Branch, Welker, Ochocinco, and the tight end duo provide Brady with the great chain-moving, middle-of-the-field targets he covets, while Tate and Price have the speed to stretch defenses vertically.  Brady loves to use multiple targets, and he’ll have as many weapons as ever heading into 2011.
 

Finally getting a long-term deal done with top flight guard Logan Mankins solidifies an offensive line that already boasts excellent players Matt Light, Dan Koppen, and Stephen Neal as well as up-and-comers Sebastian Vollmer and rookie Nate Solder.  Deep and talented, New England’s offensive line will more than ably give Brady time to pick apart defenses.
 

Running back-by-committee will again be the strategy this year in New England.  The committee will just be a bit larger with rookies Shane Vareen and Stevan Ridley joining the stable of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Kevin Faulk.
 

On defense the Pats may finally be turning into the perfect blend of youth and experience.  Old pros on the defensive line Shaun Ellis and Vince Wilfork join young studs Jerod Mayo, Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Cunninghanm, Gary Guyton, and Brandon Spikes to form a front seven with both savvy and speed.
 

Adding Albert Haynesworth is low-risk/high-reward since they gave up virtually nothing to acquire the moody big man.  If he flops, the damage is minimal.  I like how New England uses countless alignments, so I expect they will find a way to maximize Fat Albert.
 

Pat Chung and Brandon Meriweather form one of the best young safety duos in football, both capable of ball hawking and making open field tackles.  With the first pick of the second round the Pats drafted physical corner Ras-I Dowling, who could make an impact at one of the Pats few weak points.  Dowling, Darius Butler, and Devin McCourty have a chance to make up a really nice trio of cover men.
 

If the Pats can generate more pass rush between the addition of Haynesworth and the growth of Cunningham and Dunlap, they could again be a dominant defense.  Add in an offense with an versatile array of backs and pass catchers, and you can see why this is Hill 364’s consensus pick for AFC Champion.
 

Biggest Strengths: The men at the top, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: New England must improve its pass rush, and though they’ve made it work in the past, an offense without a true feature back puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in AFC East
 

New York Jets
 

Rex Ryan’s bunch may have spent too much time drooling over Nhamdi Asoumgha and not enough time working to plug other holes on their roster.  Losing out on Asoughma in the end, the New York Jets did little to improve a team that has been on the cusp of the Super Bowl two years running.
 

If Mark Sanchez doesn’t take a quantum leap this year and become a top-10 passer in the league, this offense could really struggle considering all it lost.  Gone are the jack-of-all-trades Brad Smith, now with division rival Buffalo; the talented Braylon Edwards, who now calls San Francisco home; and Jerricho Cotchery, who went to Pittsburgh.  Picking up Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason may seem like nice moves on paper, but 32- and 37-year-old receivers usually don’t tip a team over the Super Bowl precipice.
 

Shonn Greene has big time ability at running back, but he may have to become a superstar overnight for this offense to really produce.  LaDanian Tomlinson had a nice resurgence last year, but the 32-year-old running back faded fast down the stretch.  How much does he have left in those legs for this season?
 

All-Pros D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold make up an excellent core of an offensive line, and Brandon Moore is a sound player at guard.  Right tackle and the other guard spot are less solid, but the overall unit is very good.
 

Although the Jets are famous for their blitzing defensive style, they don’t have any great, singular pass rushers.  Probably their best pure rusher, Calvin Pace had just 5.5 sacks in twelve games last year.  Nose tackle Kris Jenkins has retired after multiple knee injuries, and now their defensive line is populated by rookies and unspectacular veterans.  The strength of the front comes in the form of linebackers Bart Scott, who is aging, and David Harris, yet neither is much of a sack artist.
 

What make the Jets defense go are their cornerbacks, where Darelle Revis is the best in the business when healthy.  Opposite Revis the Jets re-signed Antonio Cromartie, who is great in man-to-man coverage but struggles making tackles and takes too many risks.  Last year’s first-round pick Kyle Wilson should push for more time on the field as a nickel and sometimes starting corner this year.
 

Ultimately, the season is going to ride on Sanchez’ development, because a lot of weapons walked out the door and the defense didn’t land the big prize it was hoping to.  After reaching back-to-back AFC Championship Games, this team seems poised to take at least a small step back.
 

Biggest Strengths: Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie may be the best cornerback duo in football, and the offensive line is among the league's elite as well.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Lack of weapons on offense, and lack of talent in the front seven.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC East
 

Miami Dolphins
 

Everyone seems to despise the Miami Dolphins’ Chad Henne, and I’m not here to sing his praises, but he’s produced at about the same level as Mark Sanchez without as much talent around him.  Last year Sanchez posted a 75.3 passer rating, Henne a 75.4, but the media is a powerful tool and has made a star of Sanchez before he’s actually become one.  Of course I realize Henne’s teams have been hovering around .500 and Sanchez has been to two-straight AFC Title Games, but in terms of quarterback production alone, the difference is pretty minimal.
 

Unfortunately for Henne, both members of a formerly dynamic backfield—Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams—have left town, and now it looks as though scatback Reggie Bush will be asked to be a feature back, something everyone but Reggie Bush seems to know he’s not capable of.
 

With the running game in trouble, even more pressure will be heaped on Henne, especially with the Dolphin fan-base up in arms that management balked on a potential trade for veteran signal caller Kyle Orton.
 

On the bright side, Henne will have superstar Brandon Marshall to throw to, and I would imagine Marshall will see more targets than just about any other receiver in the league.  Anthony Fasano is a reliable pass-catching tight end but not the type of player that defenses really have to gameplan for.

Jake Long is one of the best left tackles in the game, Vernon Carey is solid at guard, and if Mike Pouncey is anything like his brother, the Dolphins should be set at center, but there are still holes along the offensive line.
 

Miami really only has one guy, Marshall, that is going to scare defenses, and any defense can take away one guy.  A lot is going to fall on Henne and Bush, and I don’t believe they are ready to carry the load.
 

Miami is still searching for the right mix of players to lock down its defensive line.  Last year’s first-round pick, Jared Odrick, needs to develop into an impact player before things can come together.   A huge nose tackle, Paul Soliai moves pretty well but doesn’t make enough plays given his size, strength, and athletic ability.
 

Karlos Dansby is a very good linebacker still in his prime at age 29.  Solid tackler Kevin Burnett, who made 95 tackles for the Chargers last year, flanks Dansby, as does sack master Cameron Wake, who came out of nowhere in 2010 to tally 14 quarterback takedowns.  If young linebacker Koa Misi can take a step in his development, add in the return of Jason Taylor as a situational pass rusher and the Dolphins could boast one of the better linebacking groups in football.
 

Vontae Davis has as much athletic ability as anyone and showed it in flashes last year.  If Davis puts it all together—both the mental and the physical aspects of the game—he can be a star cover man.  Opposite Davis is the young Sean Smith, who at 6’3” and 214 pounds has safety size and corner speed.  This could be a very good duo moving forward.  Though aging, safety Yeremiah Bell is very good in run support, tallying over 100 tackles last year.
 

The Miami defense has the pieces to be a top-10 unit, but getting there will depend on young players stepping into leadership roles.  However, the defense will have to be great to provide this team with a shot at the playoffs because offensively it’s pretty much Henne and Marshall vs. the world.
 

Biggest Strengths: Brandon Marshall is an elite wideout, talent abounds in the linebacking corps, and they have a promising young corner duo.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Beyond Marshall, Miami lacks offensive weapons, and the defensive line is a work in progress.
 

Adam’s Predicition: 5-11, Third in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC East
 

Buffalo Bills
 

Yikes.  What else is there to say about a Buffalo Bills team that won just four games last year then in the offseason proceeded to lose their best linebacker (Paul Posluszny) a very good safety (Donte Whitner) and their second-best wide receiver (Lee Evans)?
 

Ryan Fitzpatrick will completely underwhelm you with physical ability, but he is accurate, smart, and he can get the ball out of his hands, which is more to be said than of many other quarterbacks.  He won’t lose games for Buffalo; he just won’t take them over either.
 

CJ Spiller needs to take more carries away from feature back Fred Jackson to make more of a balanced rushing attack, combining Jackson’s power and Spiller’s electric speed.
 

Stevie Johnson proved to be a rising star at receiver a year ago, but he is the lone threat in the receiving corps.
 

Also, the offensive line—for what seems like the fifth year in a row—is under serious reconstruction.
 

Offensively they may be good for a few exciting plays, but they don’t have the consistency up front or the array of weapons to sustain drives and put up points game in and game out.
 

This offseason Buffalo made two strong moves defensively: cutting ties with abject failure Aaron Maybin and drafting nasty defensive lineman Marcel Dareus with the third overall pick.
 

Pairing at defensive tackle, Dareus and Kyle Williams (a Pro Bowl alternate last year) should prove to be the strength of the team, which makes cutting ties with Posluszny and Whitner all the more puzzling.  Having Dareus and Williams anchor the middle of the line, then Posluszny at middle linebacker and Whitner at strong safety would have made the Bills downright formidable against the run, but they chose to let those two high quality players walk.
 

Ex-Packer Nick Barnett will recognize the cold weather in Buffalo, but he won’t be used to all the losing.  He should nicely fill in for Posluszny, but Barnett is five years older and not near the same level of athlete at this point, especially coming off an injury.  Barnett may well be the best the Bills linebacking group has to offer, having Shawne Merriman’s career evaporated before our eyes.
 

Terrence McGee, Leodis McKelvin, and Jarius Byrd make up a very good secondary, certainly the most proven unit on the team, but it certainly won’t be enough to make up for the Bills numerous other deficiencies.
 

This team doesn’t have the weapons, experience, or depth to come anywhere close to tasting playoff glory.
 

Biggest Strengths: The defensive tackle tandem and secondary are the Bills’ lone bright spots.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: They lack an offensive line, receiving options, and linebackers.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 5-11, Fourth in AFC East
 

--from @AdamHocking

NFL Draft Grades 2011: AFC East

Buffalo Bills

The Bills were bad last year, which usually means a changing of the guard at quarterback is in order.  However, incumbent starter Ryan Fitzpatrick had a pretty solid 2010 with an 82 passer rating.  And with no surefire quarterback prospects in this draft, I think staying with Fitzpatrick for at least one more year is the best strategy.

The Bills were dead last stopping the run, so adding the beast Marcel Dareus was a great move with their first pick.  Alabama’s Dareus excelled in the rough and tumble SEC, is a great athlete for his size, and appears to be the strongest player on the field at all times.  At 6’3”, 320 pounds, Dareus is the ideal anchor against the run, and with the Bills playing both 3-4 and 4-3, Dareus provides tremendous versatility.  When you watch a game, Dareus is one of the few players that jumps off the screen.

In the second round the Bills made a slightly curious pick, though they got a quality player.  Aaron Williams (DB, Texas) can play corner or safety and is a talented, physical player.  It’s just that the Bills’ secondary is probably the strength of their team; they ranked 3rd in the league defending the pass in 2010.  Still, the defense was Buffalo’s problem last year, and after getting Dareus, I can’t punish them too much for adding another quality player to that side of the ball.

The pick I really like came in the third round, the linebacker Kelvin Sheppard out of LSU.  With stopping the run such an issue, the Bills added two guys in Dareus and Sheppard that should help turn things around fast.  Sheppard is big at 250 pounds and has good speed and overall athleticism, able to get back and cover tight ends.  He was a leader on his college team.

Management must be expecting to lose some of their secondary, because in the fourth round Buffalo again addressed the area, netting Da’Norris Searcy (SS, North Carolina).  The 223-pound Searcy has the size to be an impact player against the run and enough speed and agility to be solid in coverage.  He had an incredible 27 bench press reps at the combine.

In the late fourth round the Bills did something that probably should have been addressed earlier; they picked an offensive lineman.  Chris Hairston from Clemson is a huge man at 6’6” and 325 pounds with great strength and solid athleticism, but he was never a true standout in college.

The Bills may have gotten a solid halfback in the fifth, taking a good, natural runner in UNC’s Johnny White.

In the sixth and seventh rounds the Bills continued to stockpile defensive players.

I always like when a team heads into a draft with a theme like Buffalo clearly did.  They went defense early and often, getting physical players from big-time programs.  Dareus should be a star, Williams should help right away, and Sheppard could start from Day 1 as well. Searcy is a talented player that might take some time learning the league, but he could develop into a thumper at strong safety.  Hairston was a high-upside pick who hasn’t shown that he’s an NFL starter just yet.   White complements an already talented backfield.  The only thing I would say is that the offense needed some major help but didn’t get it in this draft.  I understand though; teams can only do so much with their picks, and Buffalo completely revamped their defense in this draft.

Grade: B+

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had major needs entering this draft, and I’m not sure they addressed enough of them.  They simply didn’t have the number of picks to restock completely, but they did a solid job of adding good players at positions of need.

I like Miami’s first pick, Mike Pouncey (OL, Florida).  He’s an excellent athlete who can play center or guard, and the Dolphins desperately need more talent in the middle of their offensive line.

In the second round Miami got Kansas State runner Daniel Thomas, who fits the theme of this draft: physicality.  Thomas is a bruising 230 pounds, and with Ronnie Brown constantly injured, was a good pick.

In fourth rounder Edmund Gates, Miami might have drafted the next Ted Ginn, or they may have gotten a steal.   Out of Abilene Christian, the thing that pops is his speed: a 4.31 40-yard dash.  Perhaps he can provide the deep threat opposite the massive and imposing possession receiver Brandon Marshall.  If he can, then Chad Henne could improve dramatically.  Henne has a great downfield arm, and has needed a player that to lift the lid off of the defense and to open things up underneath.  Gates has good ball skills and strength, but he is raw in running routes.

In the sixth round the Dolphins picked up Charles Clay (TE/FB, Tulsa) who is a versatile player and a decent athlete who could fill multiple positions.

The first two picks should work out in tandem.  Pouncey can play right away and bring physicality to the Dolphin run game.  Thomas may be running strong behind Pouncey for the next 5-7 years; he’s a talented back that can wear down defenses.  Then adding the speedster Gates should help the Dolphins be a more dangerous vertical passing team.  Additionally, all of the first three selections should help Henne.  If he can’t succeed with a talented new center, another good running back, and a certified deep threat, then he’s not the guy.

Grade: B-

New England Patriots

It just isn’t fair.  They go 14-2 and then have a seemingly endless supply of draft picks the following year.   Without many needs, the Patriots could essentially pick whoever they wanted whenever they wanted.

The Patriots spent their first round selection on Nate Solder, once considered the best offensive tackle in his class, but a guy that had slid a little right before the draft.  Still, New England gets a tremendous pass protector with a huge frame and potential to be a truly elite offensive lineman.  He is the heir apparent to Matt Light on the left side.

New England addressed another big need with the top pick in the second round, adding the physical cornerback from Virginia, Ras-I Dowling.  Dowling is big and fast; the 6’1”, 200-pound corner runs a 4.40 40-yard dash.  Plus, he’s a smart player who started for a long time in college and should be solid immediately in the Patriot secondary.

Late second round pick Shane Vareen (RB, California) was a taken a little high for my taste, but he is a versatile player that bolsters a position of some need.  Though Danny Woodhead is a fine player, I’m not sure he’s the yearly answer as a feature back.  Vareen is a compact and strong runner who can catch the ball out of the backfield and has nice open field moves.  He should get some carries right off the bat and help improve a so-so Patriots running game.

I don’t really understand the Pats’ next pick in the third round, another running back in LSU’s Stevan Ridley.  I believe adding Vareen was a more than adequate move to jolt the running game, but with so many picks to play with, perhaps the Patriots just took a guy they liked.  The 225 pounder with an attacking running style can add another element to the New England offense and gives them perhaps the deepest stable of running backs in the NFL (Woodhead, BenJarvis Green-Ellis, Vareen, and now Ridley).

With the very next selection the Patriots did something some loved and others hated: Ryan Mallet.  And I loved it.  If he doesn’t work out, so what?  He’s a third round pick on a championship-level team; it won’t really be a big deal if he can’t be Brady’s successor.  And if he does work out, then the Patriots are geniuses yet again.  Mallett has the best arm of any quarterback drafted this year.  The knock on him is his work ethic and attitude toward the game. Sitting behind Brady for two or three years ought to help Mallett dial in and maximize his physical gifts.  And if Mallett doesn’t turn out to be the Patriots’ guy, he could be juicy trade bait, like we’re currently seeing with Kevin Kolb.

The fifth round saw the Patriots add mammoth TCU guard Marcus Cannon, who fits well with the physical theme New England seemed to be going for in this draft.  Cannon was, to some, a second round talent.  At 6’5” and 360 pounds, Cannon is unbelievably big, but he also shows surprising athleticism playing tackle in college.  If he can learn to play guard, he could be dominant, and that’s not something you can say about most fifth round picks.

The thing to keep in mind with this draft is that New England had a huge rookie class last year and is still developing those players.  They have so many young bodies that needs really disappear, and taking the most talented prospects becomes the smart strategy.  Solder will be a star if he stays healthy and gets stronger, Dowling has all the physical gifts to be a good corner, and the combo of Vareen/Ridley totally reshapes the running back situation.  Mallett was a flyer, a luxury pick with a huge ceiling and not much of a cost coming in the third round.  Cannon was a steal in the fifth.

Overall I love how the Patriots drafted for talent.  Their draft class has as much potential as any teams’.  The only thing I thought they missed was adding more depth to the defensive line.  They maybe could have looked at taking a dynamic wideout as well, but I’m nitpicking at this point.

Grade: A-

New York Jets

Even with limited picks, the Jets still addressed major needs.  The front line of the Jets’ 3-4 was unspectacular last year, especially after Kris Jenkins went down with yet another injury.  Jenkins is probably done as an elite player.  The linebacking corps and secondary are very strong for New York, and the offense is stocked with young talent, so finding impact players on the defensive line was the top priority in this draft.

The Jets hit big in the first round with Temple defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson.  At 6’4” and 315 pounds, Wilkerson has the size and strength to play any position on the defensive line, but he will likely spend most of his time at defensive end.  Very athletic for his size, Wilkerson has the ability to take on two blockers and could be a dominant run defender.  Physically, he’s ready to compete with NFL offensive linemen.

In the third round the Jets took a chance on a small school player in Kenrick Elllis, a defensive tackle from Hampton.  The enormous 6’5”, 350-pound Ellis plays with a violent demeanor and fires off the snap.  He has the prototype height to block quarterbacks’ line of vision and the prototype girth to take on multiple blockers.  Plus, he’s scary quick for a man of his size.  With all the talent to excel, Ellis simply has to prove he can transition from a small school to the bright lights of New York and the NFL.

In the fourth round the Jets added another player to their running back rotation, Louisville’s Bilal Powell.  He’s not huge, but at 210 pounds and with a physical running style, he can be a punishing back in stretches.  After underwhelming his first three collegiate years, Powell ran for over 1,400 yards last year.

I like the pick of Jeremy Kerley (WR, TCU) in the fifth round.  He’s a smart player that played in a pass-oriented offense in college.  I think mentally will be ready to contribute right away.  He seems to be a perfect fit in the slot.

Taking a chance on Greg McElroy in the seventh was a smart move.  Mentally he’s as sharp as quarterbacks come, and while his physical skills aren’t mind-blowing, McElroy can hold his own.  To me he projects as an ideal #2 who will add a tremendous presence to the locker room and will be like another coach on the roster.  That’s pretty good value for the seventh round.

Taking defensive linemen with their top two picks was the best thing the Jets could have done; it was by far their biggest need.  Wilkerson should be a solid player immediately and could be very good down the road.  Ellis has huge potential and talent-wise was a steal in the third round, but he has a lot to prove at the next level.  Powell and Kerley were both productive college players that aren’t physically overwhelming but should be contributors.  The Jets can’t be sold that LaDanian Tomlinson has much left in the tank, and wideouts Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are free agents.  With that in mind, Powell and Kerley were smart picks.  Finally, I can’t help but love getting such a solid individual in McElroy in the seventh round.

Grade: B

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots

#27 Atlanta Falcons

What They Need: Though ultimately overwhelmed by the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers in the playoffs, Atlanta was the best team in the NFC last regular season.  Balance was their biggest strength on offense, and that’s why needs are minimal on that side of the ball.  Michael Turner is a bona-fide feature back, and the combo of Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood gives the Falcons tremendous depth at the position.  Roddy White emerged as a super star last year, and Tony Gonzalez is still one of the best receiving tight ends in the league.  Matt Ryan is rock solid at quarterback; maybe he won’t win a game by himself, but he consistently puts his team in successful positions.  The offensive line is a sound unit where no one player is excellent, but all are good NFL starters.  Another explosive wide receiver or tight end is the only conceivable offensive draft option for Atlanta.  Defensively, Atlanta was good but not great.  They're fine at linebacker with young studs Sean Weatherspoon and Curtis Lofton and the solid veteran Mike Peterson.  John Abraham is still a very good pass rushing defensive end, but he has had injuries and is aging quickly.  Opposite Abraham, Kroy Biermann is a solid but unspectacular player.  At tackle, Perria Jerry is still developing, as is second year man Corey Peters.  The Falcons' secondary got torched at times last year because Dunta Robinson is their only good cover corner.

Who They Might Pick: I think this is defense all the way with defensive line and corner as the biggest needs.  Having some young talent at defensive tackle may prohibit Atlanta from nabbing a guy like Corey Liuget from Illinois or Stephen Paea from Oregon State.  At this point there won’t be a top-rated pass rusher available, such a coveted position.  Maybe Jabal Sheard, the defensive end from Pittsburgh, could bring the pass rush complement to Abraham.  Cameron Heyward might still be on the board, but I think he’s ideally suited for the 3-4.  Aaron Williams from Texas will likely be the top cornerback available at this spot, and he could be a nice pick.

My Advice: They need a cover man to take pressure off of Dunta Robinson.  Take Aaron Williams from Texas.  He’s big and physical with good but not great speed.  He’ll be able to combat big possession receivers while Robinson handles the burners on the other side.  Atlanta is just one good player away from knocking on the Super Bowl door, and Williams could be that guy.

At pick twenty-seven, the Atlanta Falcons take Aaron Williams, CB, Texas.

#28 New England Patriots

What They Need: Back again, huh?  I already gave the Patriots stud running back Mark Ingram from Alabama, so the backfield is all taken care of.  The receiving corps is deep, if not overwhelmingly talented, but that’s almost the way New England likes it.  They want a group of good route runners that won’t pout if they don’t get the ball.  And Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez both flashed big time potential at tight end last year, so I don’t think the Pats want to draft any more pass catchers.  The offensive line is talented and sound, but could use an infusion of young talent.  Defensively we’ve said New England could use another solid defensive end.  The linebacking corps is full of young talent—Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Gary Guyton, Jermaine Cunningham—so I don’t think they’ll spend another high pick on that unit.  Patrick Chung and Brandon Meriweather form a young, talented, and athletic safety combination.  The corner position is not outstanding, but you have to figure that Devin McCourty will continue to develop, and Darius Butler and Leigh Bodden are certainly no slouches.  It’s funny; you think of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and you view this team as old, but in reality they are young at a lot of positions.  With no glaring need, this is another luxury pick.  Even a possible successor to Brady is a possibility. 

Who They Might Pick: I think linebacker is off limits here with all the picks they’ve spent on those positions recently.  3-4 defensive linemen are abundant in this draft, and that matches up with one of New England’s only needs.  Cameron Heyward could certainly still be on the board, and maybe JJ Watt or Adrian Clayborn slide down this far.  In terms of offensive line, the top tackles should all be gone, but Mike Pouncey could maybe fall to this spot, and if not Baylor guard Danny Watkins would provide a physical presence.  Corner could be a thought, and Aaron Williams, Davon House (New Mexico State), Brandon Harris (Miami), or Ras-I Dowling (Virginia) are possibilities.

My Advice: After giving them Ingram, the offense is all set.  Defensively their biggest need is another presence on the defensive line.  Cameron Heyward could provide just that.  Prior to this past college football season, many had Heyward as the best defensive player available, so he has big-time talent.  I think in New England’s system he could thrive and should be the pick.

With the twenty-eighth pick, the New England Patriots select Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State.

--from Adam

(images from zimbio.com)

2011 NFL Draft Preview: New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers

#17 New England Patriots (from Oakland Raiders)

What They Need: Um…Nothing.  That’s what it seems like coming off a 14-2 campaign.  With two picks in each of the first three rounds, whatever holes the Pats feel they have, they’ll be able to fill.  New England is the best run franchise in the NFL by miles.  They are always in the playoffs, they draft well, and they always have tons of picks.  Running back by committee has been the strategy for New England lately, and that’s worked okay because the short passing game is so efficient for them.  Still, I think having a true feature back would be a huge addition for New England, and with so many picks, they could afford to take a runner at this spot.  A vertical receiving threat could help as well.  Most of New England’s targets are underneath, slot-type players (i.e. Wes Welker and Deion Branch).  Taylor Price and Brandon Tate are young speedsters, though I don’t know if either one is the complete package.  The offensive line is a really strong group, and by franchising Logan Mankins, the Patriots will retain their best lineman for at least another year.  Sebastian Vollmer is more physical than traditional New England linemen and provides a real presence at right tackle.  Dan Koppen is ol’ reliable at center, and Matt Light is still very sound in pass protection at left tackle.  They could use an infusion of young talent on the offensive line, but I think with so many picks they can add depth later in the draft.  On the other side of the ball the Patriots could look to add a 3-4 defensive end.  Ty Warren is solid but aging.  He’ll start again next year, but I’m not sure they have another really good defensive end on the roster.  They have nose tackle all figured out with the beast Vince Wilfork manning the middle.  The linebacking corps is full of young, live bodies, and New England invested two high picks—second rounders Brandon Spikes and Jermaine Cunningham—at that position last year.  New England’s recent stockpile of draft picks is also evident in the secondary where young guys like Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Brandon Meriweather should all secure starting roles.  They could however use another strong corner.

Who They Might Pick: To me this pick will come down to three spots: running back, defensive end, or corner.  With their relative lack of glaring needs, New England will employ the “best player available” strategy to those three positions.  That would mean Mark Ingram could be a strong possibility, really the only running back worthy of a first round selection.  3-4 defensive ends are relatively plentiful in this year’s crop of prospects.  Cameron Jordan from Cal, JJ Watt from Wisconsin, Adrian Clayborn from Iowa, and Cameron Heyward from Ohio State would all be nice fits.  In terms of corner, the top two guys—Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara—will be gone, but Jimmy Smith is extremely talented and may be still be available.

My Advice: Take Mark Ingram.  The Pats also pick twenty-eighth in the first round and can nab a 3-4 defensive end or corner like Aaron Williams at that spot, but there won’t be another runner of Ingram’s caliber available in the whole draft.  Ingram is a smart guy who has played big time SEC football and is the perfect back for the Patriots’ system.  He can catch the ball, doesn’t fumble, has great balance, and comparisons to Emmitt Smith are reasonable.  Not that he’ll have the same career as Smith, but he flashes the same strength, instincts, and deceptive quickness that Smith had.  Imagine a New England offense that had a bell-cow running back to complement their lethal passing attack.  Frightening, I know.

For the seventeenth pick, the New England Patriots take Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama.

#18 San Diego Chargers

What They Need: What they need is playoff success, right now.  They have to approach this draft with a sense of urgency because just about everyone’s job is on the line.  Head Coach Norv Turner will not survive another mediocre season.   We don’t yet know what will happen with malcontent receiver Vincent Jackson, but Phillip Rivers made chicken salad out of chicken you-know-what all of last year.  He put up historic numbers passing to practice squad players.  With superstar tight end Antonio Gates and last year’s first pick Ryan Matthews coming back healthy, I don’t foresee the Charges drafting for the skill positions with this pick.  The offensive line is a pretty good group, so I don’t think San Diego will go down that road with this selection either.  Defense seems to be the order of the day.  Luis Castillo has been a really good 3-4 end, and Antonio Garay came out of obscurity to be an absolute menace at nose tackle last year.  Still, they could use one more really good defensive lineman to complete that group.  Former top pick Larry English hasn’t shown much of anything in his first couple of years, but I don’t think they’re giving up on him.  That doesn’t mean they won’t look for another pass rusher to perhaps push English.  Shaun Phillips is a sack artist who seems to get better every year.  Quentin Jammer is a very good cover man.  Antoine Cason has been solid but not exactly what the Chargers expected after drafting him in the first round a few years back.  If Eric Weddle stays a Charger, the safety position is a strength; if he leaves then San Diego will need help.

Who They Might Pick: To me this pick comes down to the front seven on defense.  Specifically, the Chargers will look for either a 3-4 defensive end or rush linebacker to push or replace Larry English.  In the NFL, which should stand for “Not For Long,” San Diego will likely only wait on English one more year.  Yet you simply can’t wait to generate a pass rush; it’s a must.  Aldon Smith might fall to this point and could be a nice presence.  I doubt Robert Quinn falls this far though.  Akeem Ayers is a dynamic athlete from UCLA that seems born to be an NFL edge rusher.  He’s very fluid and natural on the field even though he doesn’t have the insane combine numbers of some other guys.  If they want to look at defensive end then the usual suspects of Watt, Jordan, Clayborn, and Heyward would be viable options.

My Advice: The Chargers have to add a guy that’s going to make a difference next year, so to me that means taking a pass rusher.  Going for a 3-4 end can be a gamble because even the best prospects are often unprepared to line up toe-to-toe with massive NFL offensive linemen on every play.  A pass rush specialist can often get one-on-one matchups off the edge with backs and tight ends and doesn’t have to play every down to make an impact.  The Chargers should take Akeem Ayers and hope that between him and English, they can find a complement to Shaun Phillips.  If Ayers could be an 8-10 sack player, the Chargers would be a very imposing defense.

With the eighteenth pick, the San Diego Chargers select Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA.

--from Adam

(images from zimbio.com)

Who’s Feeling Super?

It's late enough in the season now that we know who should be competing for a championship, and who is waiting for next year.  With that in mind, I wanted to develop a few criteria for winning in the playoffs and rank the contenders accordingly.  We don't yet know who will have home field advantage so that won't be part of the ranking system.  The factors that will weigh in are:

The Quarterback: This is not just a productive passer, but a guy that has that innate knack for moving his team down the field late in games, especially when the pocket breaks down and something must be made of nothing.  There are plenty of good pocket passers in the league, but in the playoffs where the weather is often ugly and the defenses are very good, your signal caller must be able to create some magic.

Running Game/Offensive Line: You have to be able to at least threaten the opposition with a running game, because if you can't, opposing defenses can just tee off on the quarterback.  The offensive line has to create some holes and wear down the defense so that the play action pass is a factor.  The offensive line also has to be sound in pass protection because the quarterback is the head of the snake, and if you cut off the head, the body dies.

Kicking Game: Most games in the postseason come down to field position and field goal kicking.  If you have a guy that is consistent from 45 yards and in and can make the occasional long shot, you have a significant advantage.  If you don't, then you have to change your game plan, take more risks, and will miss valuable point opportunities.

Pass Rush/Secondary: These units work in unison; the more pressure you can put on a quarterback and the better your coverage is, the more turnovers, mistakes, and three-and-outs your defense can cause.

Run Stuffers: If you clog the run consistently and force teams to throw the ball more than they want, you have a good chance of creating turnovers and winning the time of possession battle.

Coaching: What teams need is a coach that can keep players focused on assignment football, rather than the enormous stage of the postseason.  Winning individual matchups and exploiting mismatches is how you win football games no matter when or where they are played.  Managing the game—time outs, play calling, challenges, and personnel packages—is also vital, and you must have a competent, organized, and efficient head coach to keep things moving on schedule.

The AFC Contenders

Most Important Patriot: Danny Woodhead

New England Patriots 

The Quarterback: Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are the most clutch players in the league.  While Brady won't make as many plays with his legs, he completely locks it in late in the game.  He will find a way to move his team when it matters, and his accuracy is unparalleled in late game situations.  His short passing game carves up defenses when they back off the coverage.  Who would you rather have than a guy with three Super Bowl rings? 

Rating: 10

Running Game/Offensive Line: Danny Woodhead is all about making a single cut and getting up the field.  He has incredible lateral quickness, and he rarely takes a big hit.  He has great elusiveness in small spaces, and has a knack for squeezing out an extra yard or two on most plays.  The offensive line has been very solid, especially protecting Brady for their rhythm passing game.  They have also been solid opening holes for Woodhead and the Law Firm, BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Rating: 8

Kicking Game: Since filling in for the injured Stephen Gostkowski, Shane Graham has made all five of his attempts.  Despite the small sample size in New England, Graham has been around a while and is an 86% career kicker, so I think the Pats are in pretty good hands, or should I say, feet.
Rating: 8

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Pats have the youngest defense in the NFL, and it shows.  Their corners have been shaky all year and they rarely get much pressure on the passer.  Their only saving grace is the defensive brilliance of Bill Belichick.
Rating: 6

Run Stuffers: Two words: Vince Wilfork.  You can't move him, and he can be dominant when he wants to.  The linebackers are strong and athletic so they can be good in the run, but smart teams will take advantage of their youth and aggressive play.  Jerod Mayo is an All Pro candidate this year.
Rating: 8

Coaching: The hoodie is the best in the business.  He knows exactly how to exploit his opponents' weaknesses and cover his own.
Rating: 10

Overall Score: 50

It's Gotta be the Hair

Pittsburgh Steelers 

The Quarterback: Roethlisberger takes a back seat to no one in terms of playing great in big games and creating big plays out of nothing.
Rating: 10

Running Game/Offensive Line: The Steelers get points for the good play of running back Rashard Mendenhall.  He is a bruising and electric back that can punish a defense.  Unfortunately, the Steelers have significant injuries along their offensive front and have been inconsistent at both protecting Roethlisberger and creating holes in the run game.
Rating: 6

Kicking Game: The Steelers cut Jeff Reed after his inconsistent performance and now rely on Shaun Suisham.  He was 2/2 against Baltimore, but prior to being picked up by Pittsburgh, there was a reason he was out of a job.  I can't trust him until he makes more pressure kicks.
Rating: 6

Pass Rush/Secondary: James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons, and Troy Polamalu all get after the quarterback and the secondary is solid.  Coverage doesn't have to be air tight when the quarterback is constantly harassed by the blitz.
Rating: 9

Run Stuffers: Pittsburgh is still very good in this category with Casey Hampton, Ziggy Hood, and Brett "The Diesel" Keisel eating up blocks for the aforementioned linebacking corps, but they will miss Aaron Smith who is out for the year.
Rating: 9

Coaching: Mike Tomlin always has this team play well in big games, and has already claimed a Super Bowl title.  He is very disciplined as a head coach and expects the same from his players.
Rating: 8

Overall Score: 48

Floats like a Butterfly, Stings like a Semi Truck

Baltimore Ravens 

The Quarterback: I like Joe Flacco.  He is very good in the pocket, has a great downfield arm, and is pretty accurate.  He does miss some short throws however, and will he is a calm player, he can be stiff in the pocket and doesn't have the athletic ability to create something out of nothing.  Late in the game, I don't see him making plays by himself to bail out his team.
Rating: 7

Running Game/Offensive Line: Ray Rice, Willis Mcgahee, and LeRon McClain represent a bruising and versatile backfield trio.  Rice is the best of the bunch and can do anything on the field.  He catches passes, blocks, and is a superb runner.  The offensive line is very physical with Michael Oher, Ben Grubbs, and Marshall Yanda all playing at a Pro Bowl level.
Rating: 9

Kicking Game: Billy Cundiff has been very good so far this year, going 5/6 from 40-49 yards and 19/22 overall.  He is a reliable option that you expect to make most kicks.
Rating: 8

Pass Rush/Secondary: The corners are suspect, but Ed Reed erases a lot of mistakes on the back end.  Still, against good passing teams, those corners will get exposed.  Terrell Suggs can be unblockable, ditto for Halogti Ngata, also Ray Lewis if he comes on the blitz.  Jarret Johnson has played very solid ball for the Ravens as well.
Rating: 7

Run Stuffers: Ngata is clearly one of the league's most difficult players to block, and Lewis is a tackling machine.  Baltimore hasn't ranked all that high against the run this year, but I trust them to ramp it up come playoff time.
Rating: 8

Coaching: John Harbaugh has done a terrific job with Baltimore, turning them into a much more potent offense while maintaining their swagger and aggressiveness on defense.  He makes sound game decisions and is unflappable.  He has schemed well to make up for Baltimore's main weakness, their corner play.
Rating: 8

Overall Score: 47

Like Always, Going as Far as Sanchez

New York Jets 

The Quarterback: Mark Sanchez has had both brilliant and bonehead moments in equal measure thus far in his young career.  Sometimes he misses very easy throws, and ultimately his inconsistency permeates this whole offense.  I don't trust him to be good in consecutive playoff games.
Rating: 6.5

Running Game/Offensive Line: The Jets have the best offensive line in football.  They protect Sanchez well and blow open holes for talented backs Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson.  If the Jets remember that they are a run-first team, they can beat anyone.
Rating: 9

Kicking Game: Nick Folk has been incredibly erratic, making just 23/32 field goals.  For a team that wants to grind out victories, this is going to be a problem.
Rating: 6

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Jets have actually struggled lately getting to the passer, but Antonio Cromartie is having an All Pro caliber year.  Darelle Revis has been slowed by injury but has regained top form in recent weeks.  The season-ending injury to Jim Leonhard takes a smart player and punishing hitter away, not to mention the team's punt returner, and that will hurt.  Still, the corners are excellent and New York's blitz packages are very confusing for opponents.
Rating: 8.5

Run Stuffers: The Jets' priority is to stop the run and make teams pass against them, figuring that pass heavy means turnovers for Gang Green.  They've been solid against the run, but big Kris Jenkins was lost for the season early on, and without him, they don't have a dominant inside presence.
Rating: 8

Coaching: Rex Ryan keeps his team very confident, but sometimes I think he gets them too worked up about things that have nothing to do with football.  Scheme is going to beat motivation in the postseason because everyone is motivated.  Ryan is too blustery at times, and it can be a distraction.  He is a very smart defensive mind and lets the offense do its own thing, so he can be a very effective X's and O's coach.  The question is will he focus on the game or the media?
Rating: 7

Overall Rating: 45

The NFC Contenders

6-0 at Home and Primed for a #1 Seed

Atlnta Falcons 

The Quarterback: Matt Ryan has been accurate and smart all year long.  He is never the reason the Falcons lose, and is often the main reason they win.  He's led numerous fourth quarter game-winning drives this year.  His willingness to stay in the pocket and look down the field, coupled with his accuracy, make every receiver a threat.  His only deficit is his lack of mobility, which is not to say that he doesn't have good feet in the pocket, he's just not much of a threat to extend the play once it breaks down.  Having Tony Gonzalez as a security blanket, Roddy White as a big play threat, and Michael Turner toting the rock doesn't hurt either.
Rating: 9

Running Game/Offensive Line: Turner and Jason Snelling are really a load to deal with for defenses.  Both are big, punishing backs, and Turner is one of the best overall runners in the league.  The offensive line has been together for a long time now, and the same five starts every game.  They are balanced and have a nasty demeanor.  Though no single player on the line grabs headlines, together, this is one of the best units in the league.
Rating: 10

Kicking Game: Matt Bryant has been rock solid this year and will likely go to the Pro Bowl if he continues his great work.  Kicking in the dome helps his cause, and the Falcons may be playing at home all the way to the Super Bowl.
Rating: 9

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Falcons have talent on the defense with John Abraham bringing the heat off the edge and Dunta Robinson serving as a good number one cornerback.  The defense is young in spots but has played well as a unit.  They don't terrorize quarterbacks or shut down opponents' passing games, but they are good enough to complement a very good offense.
Rating: 6

Run Stuffers: The Falcons rank eighth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed mostly thanks to aggressive linebacker Curtis Lofton and a defensive front that rotates a lot of different players.  Kroy Biermann is a very talented player that can play end or tackle.  Still, I don't view them as a team you simply can't run against.
Rating: 7

Coaching: I love Mike Smith's demeanor.  He is so calm and solid, and when you combine his management with Ryan's serenity under pressure, you have very strong leadership at the head of your football team.  Smith always seems to have his team ready to go from the opening kickoff, and he really maximizes the strengths of his team with the game plan he implements.
Rating: 8

Overall Rating: 49

The One Man Offense

Green Bay Packers 

The Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers' productivity cannot be questioned.  Still, I have concerns about him in the playoffs.  He does hold the ball too long at times, he will likely be forced to play in bad weather, and he has no running game to take some pressure off his shoulders.  However, he has great mobility, can pick up yards with his legs, and can make any throw on the field.  I don't have the same feel with Rodgers as I do with Roethlisberger or Brady in terms of just finding a way to move the ball late in games, but that could all change with a nice playoff run this year.
Rating: 9

Running Game/Offensive Line: James Starks had a nice debut against the 49ers; the Packers need another running back that can do something.  Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn just aren't going to instill fear in any defense.  The offensive line is not great, but they are leaps and bounds better than last year.  Josh Sitton is a bear, Bryan Bulaga is playing really well for a rookie, and Chad Clifton is playing as good as ever.
Rating: 6.5

Kicking Game: Mason Crosby has the leg strength to make any field goal in any weather.  He also has the lack of accuracy to miss any field goal at any time.  I don't trust the man.
Rating: 6.5

Pass Rush/Secondary: Clay Matthews has slowed down a bit in the middle of the year, but he is still a maniac coming off the edge.  Cullen Jenkins has amazingly registered 7 sacks as a 3-4 defensive end.  Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams have rightly been mentioned as the best corner duo in football, and Nick Collins is a dynamic player at safety.  They have had some injuries in the secondary, but are still a very strong group.
Rating: 9

Run Stuffers: B.J. Raji is an immovable object in the middle, and when joined by Ryan Pickett and Jenkins, you have the beefiest front three in football.  If healthy, this group is superb.
Rating: 9

Coaching: I think Mike McCarthy outsmarts himself sometimes, but he is an excellent offensive mind and he uses his plethora of receivers very well.  I wish he would mix in the run more, but I can't really blame him considering his lack of talent at the running back position.  Dom Capers has this defense playing free and fast; the players really seem to understand their roles this year.
Rating: 8

Overall Rating: 48

Run to Daylight

New York Giants 

The Quarteback: Eli Manning gets clutch points for winning a Super Bowl.  Still, he can be stiff in the pocket and really lacks the ability to make a play once the original play breaks down.  He can be inaccurate and has been interception prone this year.
Rating: 7.5

Running Game/Offensive Line: Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are a really frightening duo.  The Giants' offensive line is very good when healthy, but they've been banged up all year.
Rating: 8

Kicking Game: Lawrence Tynes has been really solid this year, but I question his leg strength and his cool under pressure.  Still, he has been good throughout his career and I can't downgrade him too much.
Rating: 7.5

Pass Rush/Secondary: Justin Tuck is a force against the run and pass.  The Giants' safeties play aggressively and make a lot of plays in the run game.  The linebackers are solid.  They have depth, talent and size up front on the defensive line.  The Giants' corners are solid and don't give up big plays.  The Giants allow the second least passing yards per game in the NFL.
Rating: 9

Run Stuffers: The Giants are sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game.  Their entire defense plays the run; even their secondary will make plays in the backfield.  If they can stay healthy, the Giants have a defense that can carry them a long way.
Rating: 8

Coaching: Tom Coughlin knows how to win in January, and he has the type of team to do it: a strong armed passer, two good running backs, and a balanced defense that does everything well.  Coughlin won't step outside of himself and won't allow his team to get unfocused.  He has a plan and will go down swinging with it if he has to.
Rating: 9

Overall Rating: 47

Sedrick Ellis: Linchpin of Saints' Swarming D

New Orleans Saints 

The Quarterback: Drew Brees hasn't had his best season, but he is still as good as there is in the NFL.  His accuracy is incredible, and the only reason he's thrown more interceptions this year is because his running game has been hit with injuries.  Brees is so smart and moves immaculately in the pocket.  He operates well in pressure and hurry up situations.  Bottom line, you want this guy leading your team in the fourth quarter.
Rating: 10

Running Game/Offensive Line: The Saints rank 25^th in the NFL in rushing yards per game.  Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush have both been banded up, which has given undrafted rookie Chris Ivory an opportunity to handle running back duties.  When they're healthy, the Saints can run the ball, but they haven't been thus far.  The offensive line has talent but hasn't played at the same level as last year.
Rating: 7

Kicking Game: Garrett Hartley has a strong leg, but sometimes the ball comes off his foot like the ball stumbles out of my hand when I throw lefty; it's not pretty.  You can almost see Hartley psych himself out at times.  Still, he made the kick to send this team to the Super Bowl a season ago, so he gets some credit.  John Carney is also a solid backup option.
Rating: 6.5

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Saints are third best in passing yards allowed in the entire NFL.  They have an aggressive scheme where blitzes emanate from all over, and they have ball hawking corners in Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter.  Sedrick Ellis is a pass rush presence in the middle of the defensive line, and the Will Smith/Charles Grant bookend duo can pressure quarterbacks as well.
Rating: 8

Run Stuffers: The Saints are decent against the run, but I think if you can get a lead and establish a foothold in the ground game, you could really gash them.  They don't have great depth or size in the front seven.
Rating: 6.5

Coaching: It's hard to argue with the creating genius and daring of Sean Payton.  He opened the second half of the Super Bowl with an onside kick; that's testicular fortitude.  He also designs one of the most imposing and complex passing games in the NFL.  He has Gregg Williams to largely control the defense, so he can focus on offense.  He is completely in tune with Brees and the pulse of his team.
Rating: 9

Overall Rating: 47

Are you experienced

Philadelphia Eagles 

The Quarterback: Michael Vick has been Superman this year and deserves MVP consideration.  Still, even though he has been great passing the ball, his legs make him the threat that keeps defensive coordinators awake at night.  I think Vick's scrambling abilities could be neutralized in the cold, nasty playoff weather, and that could ultimately make him less effective as a passer.  His receivers are speed merchants, but aren't great at going across the middle and moving the chains.
Rating: 8

Running Game/Offensive Line: Andy Reid has never liked running the ball, but with LeSean McCoy, he owes it to himself to pound the run.  The line has improved throughout the year, but it can still be dreadful at times.  Running the ball could help this line gain traction, but Reid likes to keep the ball in the air.
Rating: 7

Kicking Game: David Akers is as reliable kicker as there is in the league.
Rating: 9

Pass Rush/Secondary: Trent Cole is a beast off the edge, and Asante Samuel is at his gambling best in the playoffs.  Juqua Parker can get after the passer as well, and the Nate Allen/Quentin Mikel safety duo has been really good this year.
Rating: 7.5

Run Stuffers: The Eagles are a little undersized in their front seven with smallish defensive tackles and quick linebackers like Ernie Sims.  A team with a physical offensive line and bruising backs could really hurt the Eagles.
Rating: 7

Coaching: Reid has been in tons of playoff games, and he consistently has his team play well.  His only drawback is his lack of success in the NFC Championship Game, in which he is 1-4.
Rating: 8.5

Overall Rating: 47

Can he keep it in his pants for the playoffs?

Chicago Bears

The Quarterback: Yes, he can make all the throws, but far too often Jay Cutler throws to the wrong team.  He can be inaccurate, immature, and petulant.  He is not a good leader, he doesn't extend the play well despite good mobility, and he has only average talent at wide receiver.  He's played better this year, but in the postseason, I just can't trust him.
Rating: 7

Running Game/Offensive Line: Matt Forte is very talented and versatile, and Chester Taylor can do it all as a second back.  The problem is that the Bears have the NFL's worst offensive line.
Rating: 5

Kicking Game: Robbie Gould is a very solid and accurate kicker, one of the best in the business.
Rating: 9

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Bears don't get the quarterback a ton, but Julius Peppers is a guy that opponents have to game plan for.  The secondary doesn't have a single great player, but they work well together, tackle, and don't give up big plays.
Rating: 7

Run Stuffers: Peppers has shown good strength against the run this year.  Israel Idonije is a very athletic and large mammal that is disruptive against the run and pass.  Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher are terrific at sniffing out the play and flowing to the ball.
Rating: 8

Coaching: Lovie Smith is solid at coaching his defense, but I don't sense that he has total command of his team, or that he understands the game at a genius level like Belichick.  Mike Martz has done a good job of keeping himself in check this year by running the ball at least some and using tight ends and backs in pass protection.  Still, I think the Martz offense is a bad fit for ugly weather playoff games.
Rating: 6

Overall Rating: 42

The Final Rankings

1. New England Patriots (50 points)
2. Atlanta Falcons (49 points)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (48 Points) – With a tie at 48 points, I put the Steelers ahead of Green Bay because of Roethlisberger's playoff pedigree and the Steelers' dominant defense.
4. Green Bay Packers (48 points)
5. Baltimore Ravens (47 points) – Eagles, Giants, Saints, Ravens all scored 47 points on the playoff scale.  The Ravens rank highest out of the group because of their experience on defense and their balance on offense.
6. New York Giants (47 points) – They're ahead of Philly because they are stronger in the running game and on defense, and I think Vick will be less effective in the playoffs.  They're also ahead of New Orleans for some of the same reasons, plus, the Saints likely won't be playing many home games in the postseason.
7. New Orleans Saints (47points) – They're ahead of Philly because I like the Saints' offensive line and I trust Brees to be accurate in any environment.  They also will get healthier at running back.
8. Philadelphia Eagles (47 Points)
9. New York Jets (45 points)
10. Chicago Bears (42 points)

--from Adam

(all images from zimbio.com except Georgia Dome image, which came from instituteofhigherthinking.com)