Super Bowl XLVI Pick-Down

With a heavy heart this 49er fan must prognosticate the outcome of the Super Bowl thinking of what could have been. But the Giants and Patriots earned their way to the big game, and to the victors go the nauseating amount of attention.

Speaking of nauseating, is it just me, or is the idea that the Giants are the “red-hot” team kind of a misnomer? The Patriots have won ten consecutive games and are 15-3. The Giants have won five-straight and are 11-7. I think people simply can’t resist comparing this matchup and this Giants team to the one that beat up Tom Brady in the 2008 Super Bowl. That’s a mistake.

New England is a completely different team from the one that nearly captured perfection. They don’t have Randy Moss, and their offense is not at all structured around the vertical passing game. The Giants' strength, their pass rush, is most effective when teams want to go deep down the field and the quarterback has to hold the ball longer.

I think in this game you will (1) See the Pats make a concerted effort to run the ball, and (2) Use jumbo and max protect packages even when throwing the ball.

Rob Gronkowski is not going to be 100%, yet I would imagine he’ll be ready to make some plays in the first half, and then his ankle will stiffen over the elongated Super Bowl half-time. I expect New England to feed Gronk when he’s feeling good, and then switch over to Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Deion Branch later on.

New England has a solid offensive line, and with maximum protection and Brady dialed in, I think they carve up the Giants' suspect linebacking and secondary groups. Everyone seems to think that the Patriots can’t win unless Gronkowski has 9 catches for 150 yards and 2 scores, but they have plenty of other options.

Wes Welker had 122 catches, 1,569 yards and 9 touchdowns this year. Hernandez had 79 grabs for over 900 yards and 7 scores. Meanwhile, Deion Branch chipped in 51 receptions for 700 yards and 5 end zone trips. Gronkowski is important, but he is not the end-all be-all for New England.

When New York has the ball the temptation is to think Eli Manning will go up and down the field on what has statistically been an awful Patriots defense. Manning will no doubt get his yards and make his share of plays, but New England’s defense is as healthy as it’s been all year. Patrick Chung is back in the mix at safety, as is play-making linebacker Brandon Spikes. I think New England will load up to stop the run in an effort to make Manning beat them. As good as Manning has been, I think New England will take their chances in a shootout between he and Brady.

Vince Wilfork is unblockable right now. He should have a huge impact against the run and even collapse the pocket around Manning. Under pressure, Manning has a tendency for making bad decisions. He will give the defense a chance to take the ball away, and I expect New England to capitalize.

Finally, I think Brady with his mastery of the short passing game can win the time of possession battle and wear down the New York pass rush, thus neutralizing the Giants' greatest strength and keeping Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham on the bench.

The Giants are a good football team, but they lost seven games this year for a reason; they are inconsistent. I think the bye week slows their momentum, and I also think Brady and Bill Belichick just aren’t going to lose another Super Bowl to the same team. Gimme the Pats, and screw the damn Giants.

Prediction: New England 34 – New York 27

--from @AdamHocking

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Giants vs. Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
	Adam	Eric
Conference Championship Record	0-2	1-1
Conference Championship Points	-8	8
Total Points	156	190
Playoff Record	5-5	5-5
Combined Record (Regular Season and Playoffs)	163-103	185-81

NFC East: 2011 Division Preview

Philadlphia Eagles

The clear winners of the lockout-shortened offseason, the Philadelphia Eagles have made themselves probably the most purely talented team in the league.  Work remains though to live up to the hype.  With so many new faces, it will take a concerted to effort to get everyone on the same page.

No other team assembled near the talent that the Eagles did.  Even when you thought they were done, Philadelphia just kept signing guys.  In order to all fit under the cap, many of the high profile players took less money for the chance to play with Michael Vick and join the self-proclaimed “Dream Team.”

A lot pressure rides on the electric athlete, Michael Vick’s shoulders.  In order for this team to reach the Super Bowl, Vick has to hold up for an entire season and playoff run, which is no guarantee.  Newly acquired backup Vince Young will surely see some playing time behind the stylistically injury-prone Vick.  If Young can get the playbook down, it might even be worth it to play him a few games here and there just to keep Vick fresh for the playoffs.

Vick is dominant as an athlete and getting better as a passer, but if he can fully utilize the stacked arsenal of DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Steve Smith, Brent Celek, LeSean McCoy, and Ronnie Brown remains to be seen.

The defense underwent all kinds of change too with Philadelphia landing the ultimate offseason prize, Nnamdi Asomugha; trading for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie; and signing Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins to a defensive line that already boasts Trent Cole and emerging pass rush threat Brandon Graham.

The only things the Eagles don't have are linebackers.  Their strategy in this pass-happy league seems to be stop an opposing offense from the front end and in the back—a Colts-like philosophy for many years—then don't worry about the middle of the defense.  Get a lead and let your pass rushers go to work.  Be mindful that they could get run over though.

On a fast track this might be the best team in football, but in the winter months when the field is slippery and slow and after Vick sustains a season full of hits, how will they adjust?  In what looks like a Super Bowl-or-bust season for Andy Reid, his job depends on it.

Biggest Strengths: Their overall talent with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Trent Cole, and more.

Biggest Weaknesses: Lineup turnover, Michael Vick’s injury risk, and the interior of offensive and defensive lines (the center and guards inside Jason Peters and new addition Ryan Harris, defensive tackles).

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in NFC East

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

According to both Adam and myself, the Cowboys are due for a rebound after a woefully underachieving 2010 campaign that signaled the end of the Wade Philips era.  Jason Garrett came in mid-way through last year and coaxed a much better effort from the veteran team, finishing 5-3.

Building off that momentum, Tony Romo will come back healthy—he missed the entire second half of the season after breaking his clavicle Week 7—with lots to prove.

Romo has the weapons with which to do it.  Miles Austin’s production took a dip without Romo throwing him the ball, and this year he should return to his Pro Bowl 2009 form.  After a spectacular rookie season, Dez Bryant’s flashes of greatness made Roy Williams expendable, and expectations are high for the young wideout.  Complementing Austin and Bryant over the middle is one of Romo’s ever favored targets, Jason Witten.  Going over 1000 receiving yards for the second-straight year, Witten remains among the league’s top tight ends.

Elsewhere on offense, Dallas needs to hash out their running game.  Who is going to run the ball for this team, Felix Jones or Tashard Choice?  Neither of those guys is particularly suited to be a feature back.

Even after drafting tackle Tyron Smith in the first round, the Dallas offensive line is still a pretty decrepit unit led by the ancient Andre Gurode, Kyle Kosier, and Leonard Davis should they re-sign him.

There are some talented individuals on defense, but gauging the unit on paper, as a whole it doesn’t add up to much.  DeMarcus Ware is a superstar pass rusher that opposing offenses have to account for on every play.  Nose tackle Jay Ratliff makes hay in the trenches and has to gameplanned for as well.  Corners Terrance Newman and Mike Jenkins are talented cover men but far from excellent in run support.

If the defense can force turnovers and give the offense the ball without too much damage, considering the offensive talent, these Dallas Cowboys can be a very good team.

Biggest Strengths: Masterminded by Jason Garrett, Tony Romo passing to Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten should be prolific.

Biggest Weaknesses: The offensive line is still a problem, and DeMarcus Ware needs some help for this defense to be special.

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in NFC East

Adam’s Prediction: 11-5, Second in NFC East

New York Giants

Nothing the Giants do overwhelms you, but they are a solid team that in both of our projections finishes .500 or higher.

Hakeem Nicks looks to be the breakout star on this offense after catching 79 balls for 1052 yards and 11 touchdowns a year ago.  Nicks’ number of looks will surely go up this season, but Eli Manning will miss his third down safety blanket Steve Smith and red zone option Kevin Boss; both departed in free agency.

With those two pass catchers no longer an option, it may mean more action for the running game, which features the dynamic, explosive Ahmad Bradshaw.  And though veteran Brandon Jacobs has lost a step, he still runs like a Mack truck.

The Giants will hang their identity on their defensive line.  Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, Osi Umenyiora, and the emerging Jason Pierre-Paul pressure the quarterback from all angles.  Rookie Marvin Austin will be a welcome addition to the defensive tackle rotation featuring Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard.  With so many guys to fill four spots, Perry Fewell is licking his lips drawing up pressure schemes.

The safety positions are filled by the athletic Antrel Rolle and Kenny Phillips.  Flanking them though, cornerback looks a little shaky.  First round pick Prince Amukamara is out indefinitely due a broken foot requiring surgery and will surely be missed when the Giants are forced to play Aaron Ross, Terrell Thomas, and/or Corey Webster.

So the secondary needs a boost, but perhaps the vicious pass rush can make up for the lack of talent in the back four.  The linebackers leave something to be desired.

Biggest Strengths: Pass rush.

Biggest Weaknesses: Michael Boley should not be a team’s best linebacker.

Eric’s Prediction: 8-8, Third in NFC East

Adam’s Prediction: 10-6, Third in NFC East

Washington Redskins

Yikes.  John Beck or Rex Grossman; it’s time to prove your guru status Mike Shanahan.

If you can somehow avoid looking at the quarterback situation, things look even more dire for the rest of the Redskin offense.  Ryan Torain, Tim Hightower, and rookie Roy Helu make up an unflattering running back combo.  Apparently you can’t play wide receiver in Washington unless you’re 30 years old.  To round out the receiving corps after 32-year-old Santana Moss, Washington brought in spring chickens Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth.  The Redskins’ number one option on offense, Chris Cooley, is out a four weeks with a knee injury and will miss developing chemistry with whoever ends up throwing him the ball.

The best thing you can say about Washington is they got rid of the mammoth headache that was Albert Haynesworth and his NFL-record $41 million of guaranteed money.

Edge rusher Brian Orakpo and safety LaRon Landry are excellent players, but additional defensive talent does not exist for the Redskins.

This could get ugly.

Biggest Strengths: Brian Orakpo.

Biggest Weaknesses: Everyone not named Brian Orakpo.

Eric’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in NFC East

Adam’s Prediction: 2-14, Fourth in NFC East

--from @jeuneski

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas needed to get younger and more athletic on the offensive line, and by drafting USC offensive tackle Tyron Smith, they did exactly that.  Smith was the most physically talented pass protector in the draft, so getting him 9 was a fine value.

Bruce Carter (LB, North Carolina) in the second round maybe wasn’t a huge need, but he can provide a big time pass rush opposite Demarcus Ware.

Getting DeMarco Murray in the third round didn’t make a whole lot of sense, though I perceive him as a first round talent, so I can’t kill the move too much.  With Marion Barber growing older and Felix Jones’ injury issues, perhaps Murray could find some carries in the crowded Cowboy backfield, Tashard Choice be damned.  He also has the speed and talent to play slot receiver and return kicks.  Murray might be the type of dynamic player that puts Dallas’ already talented offense over the top.

Fourth round pick David Arkin (OT/OG, Missouri State) is another good athlete to add to the aging Cowboys offensive line.  He might not be ready yet, but he could develop into a nice player.

Dwayne Harris (WR, East Carolina) is another player drafted to perhaps work out of the slot and return kicks.

They got the best tackle in the draft, and it fit their largest need.  Bruce Carter is a big time talent that could put the Dallas pass rush at an elite level.  DeMarco Murray wasn’t a real need but adds huge talent and big value in the third round.  I think Murray makes their pick of Dwayne Harris a little redundant.  They could have done more to address their secondary, but they got younger and better on the offensive line, and added quality talent in Murray and Carter.

Grade: B-

New York Giants

They needed to do more to upgrade their offensive line, but in terms of improving their defense, the Giants had one of the very best drafts of any team.  Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska) could have gone in the top-10, but New York got him at nineteenth.  Amukamara should be able to start—and play well—from Day One.  I think he’s an eventual Pro Bowl player.

Marvin Austin (DT, North Carolina) was another top-10 talent that the Giants this time nabbed in the second round.  He can play any position on the line and will make an early impact.  Austin joins Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, Matthias Kiwanuka, Osi Umenyiora, and Chris Canty to create maybe the best defensive line in football.  That front should harass any quarterback, and Amukamara should lock down receivers for years.

I also really like the Troy wide receiver Jerrel Jernigan in the third round.  The prototypical slot receiver, Jernigan’s a small but cat-quick player that runs good routes and will be impossible to cover in short spaces.  Jernigan completes an extremely talented receiving corps for New York.

Getting Greg Jones, the linebacker from Michigan State, was a robbery in the sixth round.  Jones was a star in college, tackles well, has solid range, is smart, and will start in this league.

James Brewer (OT, Indiana) was also a great value pick in the fourth.  At 6’6” and 325 pounds, he’s massive, strong, and athletic.  He has all the ability to develop into a starting player; it just may take a couple years.

They got two future stars among three starters for their defense.  That’s tremendous.  Jerrnigan provides an explosive dimension to their slot position and for kick returns, and Brewer could be a starter on the offensive line.  The only thing they could have done better is address the offensive line sooner.

Grade: A-

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia’s offensive line was shaky last year, and protecting Mike Vick is the most essential key to Eagles’ success.  So picking guard Danny Watkins (Baylor) in the first round was a great move.  He’s mature at age 26, athletic for the position, strong, and smart.  He can start right away next to Jason Peters and create a talented left side of the offensive line.

Secondary was a big area of need as well, and Philly spent their second and third round picks on guys—safety Jaiquawn Jarrett from Temple and corner Curtis Marsh from Utah State—that can help improve that unit immediately.  Jarrett is speedy enough for coverage, is a solid tackler, and smart player.  Marsh may have been a reach in the third, but at 6’1” and with 4.4 speed, he has the physical tools to succeed.

Oregon’s Casey Matthews joins the long line of Matthews’ to reach the NFL and provides a rangy, talented player for an Eagles linebacking corps in need of upgrades.  Matthews never stops attacking, and while he’s not the biggest or the fastest, he makes plays all over the field.

Getting Pittsburgh running back Dion Lewis in the fifth round was a steal.  He reminds me a lot of another current Eagle/former Pitt Panther, LeSean McCoy.  Lewis carried a huge load at Pittsburgh and is an incredibly talented and elusive runner.

Linebacker Brian Rolle from Ohio State was a good value in the sixth round.  He’s an experienced, smart player whose speed allows him to cover both tight ends and receivers.

The Eagles also added depth and developmental players by selecting two more offensive linemen in the fifth and sixth rounds.

They addressed their biggest needs drafting for the offensive line, secondary, and linebackers, which I really liked.  Even if I think they reached in places, they know more about the guys they selected than I do, and the continually well drafting Eagles must feel they can help.  I love Danny Watkins, they made their secondary deeper, and Dion Lewis will be a great addition to Philly’s already loaded set of skill players.

Grade: B+

Washington Redskins

I don’t know about Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue) in Round One.  He is a talented prospect who brings an edge rush, but if the Skins are playing a 3-4, he’s a bad fit.  He’s not big enough to play end in that system and not fluid enough to play outside linebacker.  Washington desperately needs a passer with Donovan McNabb assuredly headed out the door, and instead of taking Blaine Gabbert at pick 10, the Redskins traded back and selected an out of position defensive lineman.  I don’t understand that move.

Clemson defensive tackle Jarvis Jenkins was a good pick in the second round.  Jenkins is not a pass rush threat, but he does get off the ball quickly and will be a force against the run.  Certainly Washington has improved their front seven with Kerrigan and Jenkins joining stud linebacker Brian Orakpo.

Leonard Hankerson (WR, Miami) was a really good pick.  Washington has needed a number one type receiver for years now, and Hankerson has the size (6’2”, 210) and speed (4.40 40-yard dash) to fit that bill.

Roy Helu (RB, Nebraska) is seen as a reach, but I like the pick.  He’s got great playing speed, and he is a one-cut-and-go-type runner.  I think he will be a productive player in the NFL.

Evan Royster (RB, Penn State) was a workhorse in college and is a powerful runner.  Between Helu and Royster, the Skins certainly upgraded their backfield in the wake of the waived Clinton Portis.

Niles Paul (WR, Nebraska) is a physical specimen at 6’1”, 225 pounds that runs a 4.45 40-yard dash.  He has the physical tools to be a starter; he just needs to learn the position.

Washington also had six picks in the sixth and seventh rounds that they used on developmental players.

Since they didn’t draft a quarterback, Washington must think they are going to get a starter in free agency.  In that view, it’s not a bad thing that the Skins moved back in the draft.  They had lots of needs and accumulated lots of players.  Kerrigan and Jenkins should be starters and improve the front 7.  Hankerson has big time talent at wide out, a position of need.  They supplemented the running back spot with solid players and added a lot of developmental talent.  In all, they added at least five guys that will impact this team, and time will tell about the later round picks.  My only beefs are that Kerrigan doesn’t really fit their sytem, and maybe they should have taken a quarterback, but I understand addressing other areas.

Grade: B-

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers

#19 New York Giants

What They Need: When the Giants dethroned the undefeated Patriots in the 2008 Super Bowl, they did so on the strength of tenacious offensive and defensive lines.  Many of the same players remain, but those units haven’t been as good the past couple of years.  I don’t know that they necessarily need to address those positions with draft choices, but they need to re-emphasize the importance of a punishing rushing attack and a pressure cooker pass rush.  Eli Manning is not great, but he’s good and in his prime, so there’s no need to look to the future at quarterback.  Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, and Mario Manningham represent a really talented young receiving corps, so I can’t envision the Giants looking to add a player to that already stacked group either.  The running back position is also in good hands with Ahmad Bradshaw, who had a true breakout year last season, and Brandon Jacobs, who averaged a bruising 5.6 yards per carry.  As mentioned, the offensive line has lacked a certain punch recently, and maybe that’s because some key guys are getting older.  Center Shaun O’Hara is still a good player, but he’s 33.  Guard Rich Seubert is 32, and the tackle position probably could use an upgrade between David Diehl, Will Beatty, and injury prone Kareem McKenzie.  Switching to the defensive side of the ball, I still like the personnel they have up front.  Justin Tuck is a freak combination of size, strength, and agility.  Mathias Kiwanuka has pass rush ability but has had issues with injuries.  If last year’s top pick Jason Pierre-Paul can learn the mental aspect of the game, there’ll be no stopping him.  He’s as dynamic as they come in terms of speed off the edge.  Chris Canty and Barry Cofield are solid players inside, but perhaps New York could look at the defensive tackle spot for an upgrade.  The linebackers are a pedestrian group, but given the Giants’ 4-3 system and the dearth of 4-3 linebackers in this year’s draft, they won’t go in that direction here.  Corey Webster and Aaron Ross form a good but not great corner duo.  Kenny Phillips has gobs of talent at safety and his partner in crime Antrel Rolle has a nose for the football.

Who They Might Pick: I see this pick being either an offensive or defensive tackle, maybe a cornerback.  Tyron Smith the offensive tackle from USC might still be on the board, but he’s more of a finesse pass blocker, and the Giants really like to establish their running game.  Boston College’s Anthony Costanzo is a bit like Smith in that he’s more equipped to pass block.  I see a guy like Wisconsin tackle Gabe Carimi as a nice fit for New York’s offensive line.  Mammoth Mississippi State tackle Derek Sherrod could be a possibility too as he has the size to punish people in the run game, but he’s not as skilled as Carimi.  If they look at defensive tackle they could eye Phil Taylor (Baylor), Corey Liuget (Illinois), Stephen Paea (Oregon State), or Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple).  The Giants like to rotate bodies a lot on the defensive front and even interchange defensive ends and defensive tackles, so they could look to add a guy that can play anywhere on the line.  Adrian Clayborn from Iowa, JJ Watt from Wisconsin, or Cameron Jordan from Cal would all be nice, inside-outside linemen.  The usual suspects of Jimmy Smith from Colorado, Aaron Williams from Texas, and maybe Davon House from New Mexico State could be cornerback possibilities.

My Advice: This team isn’t far away from being really good.  The Cowboys and Eagles are both teams that want to throw the ball, and adding to the defensive line is a good way to counteract those teams.  I think the offense is fine, and addressing the offensive line later on in the draft is a sound strategy.  With this pick, the Giants should nab JJ Watt.  He’s 6’5”, 290 pounds, and athletic for his size.  He ran a 4.8 40.  Also incredibly strong (34 reps of 225 pounds), Watt can still fill out his long frame.  Usually guys that have great measureables lack a great motor or intensity, but that’s actually Watt’s biggest strength.  The guy never quits on a play; he has tremendous instincts; and coming from the Big Ten, he’s used to battling NFL-sized offensive linemen.  He will play inside and out, rush the passer, and attack the run.

With the nineteenth selection, the New York Giants pick JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin.

#20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What They Need: I love everything about this young team.  Their coach Raheem Morris has a tremendous energy about him and he has his team ready to play every time they hit the field.  On offense I don’t think many additions are needed, just time for all the young talent to meld together.  Josh Freeman is going to be a star at quarterback and he’s just 23.  Last year’s rookie sensation LeGarette Blount locks down the running situation, and Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn are big-time talents both entering their second season as wideouts.  Kellen Winslow is still just 27 years old and is a major talent at tight end.  Jeff Faine, Davin Joseph, Donald Penn, and Jeremy Trueblood represent four very good starters along the offensive line, and I would imagine they believe that fifth starter can be found in a later round or is already on the roster.  Defensively this team has a lot to like as well.  Gerald McCoy is going to be a stud at defensive tackle, and right next to him is last year’s second round pick Brian Price.  Barrett Ruud is a tackling machine at middle linebacker, though he could use some help outside.  Aqib Talib is a tremendous young corner that can’t seem to stay out of trouble off the field.  Another cornerback could help, and I think the safety position is relatively set.

Who They Might Pick: I think this pick almost definitely comes on the defensive side of the ball, which means either a corner or a defensive end.  The Bucs run a 4-3, and I think adding a dynamic pass rusher to their nice young defensive tackle duo could make this a fearsome, young defense.  If Cameron Jordan is available he would be a steal; he’s a projected top-15 talent.  Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue would also be a really good pick.  He’s more of a pure speed rusher than Jordan, albeit not quite the same all-around player.  Cameron Heyward from Ohio State is a thought as well, though he’s more a tweener between end and tackle.  Any cornerback they could get here, unless Jimmy Smith falls to this spot, would be a reach.

My Advice: Take Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue.  The guy ran a 4.6 40 and pushed out 31 reps of 225 pounds.  He’s known as an effort player, but with those Combine numbers he clearly has the skills to match the motor.  Jordan is less of a pure pass rusher than Kerrigan, who compiled a career total of 33 sacks at Purdue with 12 and 13 in the last two years respectively.  At 6’4” 270 he has the prototype size for a 4-3 end, and he has the strength to hold up against the run as well.

For the twentieth pick, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue.

--from Adam

(first image from ftrp.wordpress.com, second from rivals.yahoo.com)

Who’s Feeling Super?

It's late enough in the season now that we know who should be competing for a championship, and who is waiting for next year.  With that in mind, I wanted to develop a few criteria for winning in the playoffs and rank the contenders accordingly.  We don't yet know who will have home field advantage so that won't be part of the ranking system.  The factors that will weigh in are:

The Quarterback: This is not just a productive passer, but a guy that has that innate knack for moving his team down the field late in games, especially when the pocket breaks down and something must be made of nothing.  There are plenty of good pocket passers in the league, but in the playoffs where the weather is often ugly and the defenses are very good, your signal caller must be able to create some magic.

Running Game/Offensive Line: You have to be able to at least threaten the opposition with a running game, because if you can't, opposing defenses can just tee off on the quarterback.  The offensive line has to create some holes and wear down the defense so that the play action pass is a factor.  The offensive line also has to be sound in pass protection because the quarterback is the head of the snake, and if you cut off the head, the body dies.

Kicking Game: Most games in the postseason come down to field position and field goal kicking.  If you have a guy that is consistent from 45 yards and in and can make the occasional long shot, you have a significant advantage.  If you don't, then you have to change your game plan, take more risks, and will miss valuable point opportunities.

Pass Rush/Secondary: These units work in unison; the more pressure you can put on a quarterback and the better your coverage is, the more turnovers, mistakes, and three-and-outs your defense can cause.

Run Stuffers: If you clog the run consistently and force teams to throw the ball more than they want, you have a good chance of creating turnovers and winning the time of possession battle.

Coaching: What teams need is a coach that can keep players focused on assignment football, rather than the enormous stage of the postseason.  Winning individual matchups and exploiting mismatches is how you win football games no matter when or where they are played.  Managing the game—time outs, play calling, challenges, and personnel packages—is also vital, and you must have a competent, organized, and efficient head coach to keep things moving on schedule.

The AFC Contenders

Most Important Patriot: Danny Woodhead

New England Patriots 

The Quarterback: Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are the most clutch players in the league.  While Brady won't make as many plays with his legs, he completely locks it in late in the game.  He will find a way to move his team when it matters, and his accuracy is unparalleled in late game situations.  His short passing game carves up defenses when they back off the coverage.  Who would you rather have than a guy with three Super Bowl rings? 

Rating: 10

Running Game/Offensive Line: Danny Woodhead is all about making a single cut and getting up the field.  He has incredible lateral quickness, and he rarely takes a big hit.  He has great elusiveness in small spaces, and has a knack for squeezing out an extra yard or two on most plays.  The offensive line has been very solid, especially protecting Brady for their rhythm passing game.  They have also been solid opening holes for Woodhead and the Law Firm, BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Rating: 8

Kicking Game: Since filling in for the injured Stephen Gostkowski, Shane Graham has made all five of his attempts.  Despite the small sample size in New England, Graham has been around a while and is an 86% career kicker, so I think the Pats are in pretty good hands, or should I say, feet.
Rating: 8

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Pats have the youngest defense in the NFL, and it shows.  Their corners have been shaky all year and they rarely get much pressure on the passer.  Their only saving grace is the defensive brilliance of Bill Belichick.
Rating: 6

Run Stuffers: Two words: Vince Wilfork.  You can't move him, and he can be dominant when he wants to.  The linebackers are strong and athletic so they can be good in the run, but smart teams will take advantage of their youth and aggressive play.  Jerod Mayo is an All Pro candidate this year.
Rating: 8

Coaching: The hoodie is the best in the business.  He knows exactly how to exploit his opponents' weaknesses and cover his own.
Rating: 10

Overall Score: 50

It's Gotta be the Hair

Pittsburgh Steelers 

The Quarterback: Roethlisberger takes a back seat to no one in terms of playing great in big games and creating big plays out of nothing.
Rating: 10

Running Game/Offensive Line: The Steelers get points for the good play of running back Rashard Mendenhall.  He is a bruising and electric back that can punish a defense.  Unfortunately, the Steelers have significant injuries along their offensive front and have been inconsistent at both protecting Roethlisberger and creating holes in the run game.
Rating: 6

Kicking Game: The Steelers cut Jeff Reed after his inconsistent performance and now rely on Shaun Suisham.  He was 2/2 against Baltimore, but prior to being picked up by Pittsburgh, there was a reason he was out of a job.  I can't trust him until he makes more pressure kicks.
Rating: 6

Pass Rush/Secondary: James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons, and Troy Polamalu all get after the quarterback and the secondary is solid.  Coverage doesn't have to be air tight when the quarterback is constantly harassed by the blitz.
Rating: 9

Run Stuffers: Pittsburgh is still very good in this category with Casey Hampton, Ziggy Hood, and Brett "The Diesel" Keisel eating up blocks for the aforementioned linebacking corps, but they will miss Aaron Smith who is out for the year.
Rating: 9

Coaching: Mike Tomlin always has this team play well in big games, and has already claimed a Super Bowl title.  He is very disciplined as a head coach and expects the same from his players.
Rating: 8

Overall Score: 48

Floats like a Butterfly, Stings like a Semi Truck

Baltimore Ravens 

The Quarterback: I like Joe Flacco.  He is very good in the pocket, has a great downfield arm, and is pretty accurate.  He does miss some short throws however, and will he is a calm player, he can be stiff in the pocket and doesn't have the athletic ability to create something out of nothing.  Late in the game, I don't see him making plays by himself to bail out his team.
Rating: 7

Running Game/Offensive Line: Ray Rice, Willis Mcgahee, and LeRon McClain represent a bruising and versatile backfield trio.  Rice is the best of the bunch and can do anything on the field.  He catches passes, blocks, and is a superb runner.  The offensive line is very physical with Michael Oher, Ben Grubbs, and Marshall Yanda all playing at a Pro Bowl level.
Rating: 9

Kicking Game: Billy Cundiff has been very good so far this year, going 5/6 from 40-49 yards and 19/22 overall.  He is a reliable option that you expect to make most kicks.
Rating: 8

Pass Rush/Secondary: The corners are suspect, but Ed Reed erases a lot of mistakes on the back end.  Still, against good passing teams, those corners will get exposed.  Terrell Suggs can be unblockable, ditto for Halogti Ngata, also Ray Lewis if he comes on the blitz.  Jarret Johnson has played very solid ball for the Ravens as well.
Rating: 7

Run Stuffers: Ngata is clearly one of the league's most difficult players to block, and Lewis is a tackling machine.  Baltimore hasn't ranked all that high against the run this year, but I trust them to ramp it up come playoff time.
Rating: 8

Coaching: John Harbaugh has done a terrific job with Baltimore, turning them into a much more potent offense while maintaining their swagger and aggressiveness on defense.  He makes sound game decisions and is unflappable.  He has schemed well to make up for Baltimore's main weakness, their corner play.
Rating: 8

Overall Score: 47

Like Always, Going as Far as Sanchez

New York Jets 

The Quarterback: Mark Sanchez has had both brilliant and bonehead moments in equal measure thus far in his young career.  Sometimes he misses very easy throws, and ultimately his inconsistency permeates this whole offense.  I don't trust him to be good in consecutive playoff games.
Rating: 6.5

Running Game/Offensive Line: The Jets have the best offensive line in football.  They protect Sanchez well and blow open holes for talented backs Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson.  If the Jets remember that they are a run-first team, they can beat anyone.
Rating: 9

Kicking Game: Nick Folk has been incredibly erratic, making just 23/32 field goals.  For a team that wants to grind out victories, this is going to be a problem.
Rating: 6

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Jets have actually struggled lately getting to the passer, but Antonio Cromartie is having an All Pro caliber year.  Darelle Revis has been slowed by injury but has regained top form in recent weeks.  The season-ending injury to Jim Leonhard takes a smart player and punishing hitter away, not to mention the team's punt returner, and that will hurt.  Still, the corners are excellent and New York's blitz packages are very confusing for opponents.
Rating: 8.5

Run Stuffers: The Jets' priority is to stop the run and make teams pass against them, figuring that pass heavy means turnovers for Gang Green.  They've been solid against the run, but big Kris Jenkins was lost for the season early on, and without him, they don't have a dominant inside presence.
Rating: 8

Coaching: Rex Ryan keeps his team very confident, but sometimes I think he gets them too worked up about things that have nothing to do with football.  Scheme is going to beat motivation in the postseason because everyone is motivated.  Ryan is too blustery at times, and it can be a distraction.  He is a very smart defensive mind and lets the offense do its own thing, so he can be a very effective X's and O's coach.  The question is will he focus on the game or the media?
Rating: 7

Overall Rating: 45

The NFC Contenders

6-0 at Home and Primed for a #1 Seed

Atlnta Falcons 

The Quarterback: Matt Ryan has been accurate and smart all year long.  He is never the reason the Falcons lose, and is often the main reason they win.  He's led numerous fourth quarter game-winning drives this year.  His willingness to stay in the pocket and look down the field, coupled with his accuracy, make every receiver a threat.  His only deficit is his lack of mobility, which is not to say that he doesn't have good feet in the pocket, he's just not much of a threat to extend the play once it breaks down.  Having Tony Gonzalez as a security blanket, Roddy White as a big play threat, and Michael Turner toting the rock doesn't hurt either.
Rating: 9

Running Game/Offensive Line: Turner and Jason Snelling are really a load to deal with for defenses.  Both are big, punishing backs, and Turner is one of the best overall runners in the league.  The offensive line has been together for a long time now, and the same five starts every game.  They are balanced and have a nasty demeanor.  Though no single player on the line grabs headlines, together, this is one of the best units in the league.
Rating: 10

Kicking Game: Matt Bryant has been rock solid this year and will likely go to the Pro Bowl if he continues his great work.  Kicking in the dome helps his cause, and the Falcons may be playing at home all the way to the Super Bowl.
Rating: 9

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Falcons have talent on the defense with John Abraham bringing the heat off the edge and Dunta Robinson serving as a good number one cornerback.  The defense is young in spots but has played well as a unit.  They don't terrorize quarterbacks or shut down opponents' passing games, but they are good enough to complement a very good offense.
Rating: 6

Run Stuffers: The Falcons rank eighth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed mostly thanks to aggressive linebacker Curtis Lofton and a defensive front that rotates a lot of different players.  Kroy Biermann is a very talented player that can play end or tackle.  Still, I don't view them as a team you simply can't run against.
Rating: 7

Coaching: I love Mike Smith's demeanor.  He is so calm and solid, and when you combine his management with Ryan's serenity under pressure, you have very strong leadership at the head of your football team.  Smith always seems to have his team ready to go from the opening kickoff, and he really maximizes the strengths of his team with the game plan he implements.
Rating: 8

Overall Rating: 49

The One Man Offense

Green Bay Packers 

The Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers' productivity cannot be questioned.  Still, I have concerns about him in the playoffs.  He does hold the ball too long at times, he will likely be forced to play in bad weather, and he has no running game to take some pressure off his shoulders.  However, he has great mobility, can pick up yards with his legs, and can make any throw on the field.  I don't have the same feel with Rodgers as I do with Roethlisberger or Brady in terms of just finding a way to move the ball late in games, but that could all change with a nice playoff run this year.
Rating: 9

Running Game/Offensive Line: James Starks had a nice debut against the 49ers; the Packers need another running back that can do something.  Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn just aren't going to instill fear in any defense.  The offensive line is not great, but they are leaps and bounds better than last year.  Josh Sitton is a bear, Bryan Bulaga is playing really well for a rookie, and Chad Clifton is playing as good as ever.
Rating: 6.5

Kicking Game: Mason Crosby has the leg strength to make any field goal in any weather.  He also has the lack of accuracy to miss any field goal at any time.  I don't trust the man.
Rating: 6.5

Pass Rush/Secondary: Clay Matthews has slowed down a bit in the middle of the year, but he is still a maniac coming off the edge.  Cullen Jenkins has amazingly registered 7 sacks as a 3-4 defensive end.  Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams have rightly been mentioned as the best corner duo in football, and Nick Collins is a dynamic player at safety.  They have had some injuries in the secondary, but are still a very strong group.
Rating: 9

Run Stuffers: B.J. Raji is an immovable object in the middle, and when joined by Ryan Pickett and Jenkins, you have the beefiest front three in football.  If healthy, this group is superb.
Rating: 9

Coaching: I think Mike McCarthy outsmarts himself sometimes, but he is an excellent offensive mind and he uses his plethora of receivers very well.  I wish he would mix in the run more, but I can't really blame him considering his lack of talent at the running back position.  Dom Capers has this defense playing free and fast; the players really seem to understand their roles this year.
Rating: 8

Overall Rating: 48

Run to Daylight

New York Giants 

The Quarteback: Eli Manning gets clutch points for winning a Super Bowl.  Still, he can be stiff in the pocket and really lacks the ability to make a play once the original play breaks down.  He can be inaccurate and has been interception prone this year.
Rating: 7.5

Running Game/Offensive Line: Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are a really frightening duo.  The Giants' offensive line is very good when healthy, but they've been banged up all year.
Rating: 8

Kicking Game: Lawrence Tynes has been really solid this year, but I question his leg strength and his cool under pressure.  Still, he has been good throughout his career and I can't downgrade him too much.
Rating: 7.5

Pass Rush/Secondary: Justin Tuck is a force against the run and pass.  The Giants' safeties play aggressively and make a lot of plays in the run game.  The linebackers are solid.  They have depth, talent and size up front on the defensive line.  The Giants' corners are solid and don't give up big plays.  The Giants allow the second least passing yards per game in the NFL.
Rating: 9

Run Stuffers: The Giants are sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game.  Their entire defense plays the run; even their secondary will make plays in the backfield.  If they can stay healthy, the Giants have a defense that can carry them a long way.
Rating: 8

Coaching: Tom Coughlin knows how to win in January, and he has the type of team to do it: a strong armed passer, two good running backs, and a balanced defense that does everything well.  Coughlin won't step outside of himself and won't allow his team to get unfocused.  He has a plan and will go down swinging with it if he has to.
Rating: 9

Overall Rating: 47

Sedrick Ellis: Linchpin of Saints' Swarming D

New Orleans Saints 

The Quarterback: Drew Brees hasn't had his best season, but he is still as good as there is in the NFL.  His accuracy is incredible, and the only reason he's thrown more interceptions this year is because his running game has been hit with injuries.  Brees is so smart and moves immaculately in the pocket.  He operates well in pressure and hurry up situations.  Bottom line, you want this guy leading your team in the fourth quarter.
Rating: 10

Running Game/Offensive Line: The Saints rank 25^th in the NFL in rushing yards per game.  Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush have both been banded up, which has given undrafted rookie Chris Ivory an opportunity to handle running back duties.  When they're healthy, the Saints can run the ball, but they haven't been thus far.  The offensive line has talent but hasn't played at the same level as last year.
Rating: 7

Kicking Game: Garrett Hartley has a strong leg, but sometimes the ball comes off his foot like the ball stumbles out of my hand when I throw lefty; it's not pretty.  You can almost see Hartley psych himself out at times.  Still, he made the kick to send this team to the Super Bowl a season ago, so he gets some credit.  John Carney is also a solid backup option.
Rating: 6.5

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Saints are third best in passing yards allowed in the entire NFL.  They have an aggressive scheme where blitzes emanate from all over, and they have ball hawking corners in Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter.  Sedrick Ellis is a pass rush presence in the middle of the defensive line, and the Will Smith/Charles Grant bookend duo can pressure quarterbacks as well.
Rating: 8

Run Stuffers: The Saints are decent against the run, but I think if you can get a lead and establish a foothold in the ground game, you could really gash them.  They don't have great depth or size in the front seven.
Rating: 6.5

Coaching: It's hard to argue with the creating genius and daring of Sean Payton.  He opened the second half of the Super Bowl with an onside kick; that's testicular fortitude.  He also designs one of the most imposing and complex passing games in the NFL.  He has Gregg Williams to largely control the defense, so he can focus on offense.  He is completely in tune with Brees and the pulse of his team.
Rating: 9

Overall Rating: 47

Are you experienced

Philadelphia Eagles 

The Quarterback: Michael Vick has been Superman this year and deserves MVP consideration.  Still, even though he has been great passing the ball, his legs make him the threat that keeps defensive coordinators awake at night.  I think Vick's scrambling abilities could be neutralized in the cold, nasty playoff weather, and that could ultimately make him less effective as a passer.  His receivers are speed merchants, but aren't great at going across the middle and moving the chains.
Rating: 8

Running Game/Offensive Line: Andy Reid has never liked running the ball, but with LeSean McCoy, he owes it to himself to pound the run.  The line has improved throughout the year, but it can still be dreadful at times.  Running the ball could help this line gain traction, but Reid likes to keep the ball in the air.
Rating: 7

Kicking Game: David Akers is as reliable kicker as there is in the league.
Rating: 9

Pass Rush/Secondary: Trent Cole is a beast off the edge, and Asante Samuel is at his gambling best in the playoffs.  Juqua Parker can get after the passer as well, and the Nate Allen/Quentin Mikel safety duo has been really good this year.
Rating: 7.5

Run Stuffers: The Eagles are a little undersized in their front seven with smallish defensive tackles and quick linebackers like Ernie Sims.  A team with a physical offensive line and bruising backs could really hurt the Eagles.
Rating: 7

Coaching: Reid has been in tons of playoff games, and he consistently has his team play well.  His only drawback is his lack of success in the NFC Championship Game, in which he is 1-4.
Rating: 8.5

Overall Rating: 47

Can he keep it in his pants for the playoffs?

Chicago Bears

The Quarterback: Yes, he can make all the throws, but far too often Jay Cutler throws to the wrong team.  He can be inaccurate, immature, and petulant.  He is not a good leader, he doesn't extend the play well despite good mobility, and he has only average talent at wide receiver.  He's played better this year, but in the postseason, I just can't trust him.
Rating: 7

Running Game/Offensive Line: Matt Forte is very talented and versatile, and Chester Taylor can do it all as a second back.  The problem is that the Bears have the NFL's worst offensive line.
Rating: 5

Kicking Game: Robbie Gould is a very solid and accurate kicker, one of the best in the business.
Rating: 9

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Bears don't get the quarterback a ton, but Julius Peppers is a guy that opponents have to game plan for.  The secondary doesn't have a single great player, but they work well together, tackle, and don't give up big plays.
Rating: 7

Run Stuffers: Peppers has shown good strength against the run this year.  Israel Idonije is a very athletic and large mammal that is disruptive against the run and pass.  Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher are terrific at sniffing out the play and flowing to the ball.
Rating: 8

Coaching: Lovie Smith is solid at coaching his defense, but I don't sense that he has total command of his team, or that he understands the game at a genius level like Belichick.  Mike Martz has done a good job of keeping himself in check this year by running the ball at least some and using tight ends and backs in pass protection.  Still, I think the Martz offense is a bad fit for ugly weather playoff games.
Rating: 6

Overall Rating: 42

The Final Rankings

1. New England Patriots (50 points)
2. Atlanta Falcons (49 points)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (48 Points) – With a tie at 48 points, I put the Steelers ahead of Green Bay because of Roethlisberger's playoff pedigree and the Steelers' dominant defense.
4. Green Bay Packers (48 points)
5. Baltimore Ravens (47 points) – Eagles, Giants, Saints, Ravens all scored 47 points on the playoff scale.  The Ravens rank highest out of the group because of their experience on defense and their balance on offense.
6. New York Giants (47 points) – They're ahead of Philly because they are stronger in the running game and on defense, and I think Vick will be less effective in the playoffs.  They're also ahead of New Orleans for some of the same reasons, plus, the Saints likely won't be playing many home games in the postseason.
7. New Orleans Saints (47points) – They're ahead of Philly because I like the Saints' offensive line and I trust Brees to be accurate in any environment.  They also will get healthier at running back.
8. Philadelphia Eagles (47 Points)
9. New York Jets (45 points)
10. Chicago Bears (42 points)

--from Adam

(all images from zimbio.com except Georgia Dome image, which came from instituteofhigherthinking.com)