AFC North: 2011 Division Preview

Baltimore Ravens

Does Joe Flacco have another level of play, or has he plateaued?  The answer to that question will determine whether the Baltimore Ravens are a Super Bowl threat or simply a good, playoff-level team.
 

Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, and Lee Evans give Flacco plenty of weapons, and the offensive line is excellent.  Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson will push each other at tight end and provide extra targets in the middle of the field as well.
 

Offseason acquisition Ricky Williams will be a good second back behind Rice, and Vonta Leach was brought in—the best fullback in football—to pave the way for a powerful running attack.
 

Though he gets less credit than Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, both good players who are really getting up there in years, mammoth defensive lineman Haloti Ngata is the best player on the Ravens’ defense.  Former Texan Bernard Pollard, a solid safety, comes in to pair with Reed.
 

Considering Terrell Suggs is a pass rushing monster when healthy, Lewis is an All-Pro in the middle, and Reed plays spectacularly on the back end, even with aging stars the Baltimore defense is still a top-5 unit in the league, but cornerback is a big concern.  First round pick Jimmy Smith has huge talent as a cover man, but he’s a rookie corner; that’s usually a dicey situation.  Chris Carr is decent as is Ladarious Webb, but they don’t have a single lockdown cover guy.
 

Biggest Strengths: Behind a road-grating offensive line and a powerhouse fullback, Ray Rice and Ricky Williams will run rampant over opposing defenses.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Corner.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC North
 

Pittsburgh Steelers
 

Will the defending AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers have a hangover from their Super Bowl loss?  Hard to say, but talent still abounds on this roster.
 

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is unconventional but still a great player, a winner pure and simple as his three Super Bowl appearances and two rings can attest.
 

Mike Wallace is probably the best deep threat in the league, and Jerricho Cotchery and Hines Ward provide good possession targets outside.  In addition, though more of a blocker, tight end Heath Miller, adeptly catches passes too and is a red zone force.
 

Rashard Mendenhall as the feature back has proven to be a talented runner over the past two years, but the offensive line is suspect beyond Maurkice Pouncey.
 

The Pittsburgh defense should again be vicious, spearheaded by their stout front line of Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, and Brett Keisel.  Rookie first rounder Cameron Heyward injects youth and talent into this aging group.
 

The Steelers have the best linebackers in the league with nasty edge rushers James Harrison and Lamar Woodley and the Lawrence Timmons emerging as a star inside.  James Farrior is still a good player but at age 36 has clearly lost a step.
 

Corner is a weak spot on this team, but they can usually make up for it with a heavy dose of pass rush and the flying Troy Polamalu, perhaps the best defensive player in the league when healthy.
 

Biggest Strengths: Their defensive playmakers Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: What they have at cornerback doesn't stack up with the rest of the defense, and the offensive line leaves something to be desired.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, Second in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC North
 

Cleveland Browns
 

This may be the year we find out if Colt McCoy can be a good starting quarterback in the NFL.  He doesn’t have to be a star, but if he can play consistently and not lose his team games, the Cleveland Browns will be competitive.
 

Peyton Hillis is a powerful running back, but there has to be at least a slight concern that last year was a flash in the pan.
 

The Browns have very little in terms of perimeter threats, really any good receiving options.  Featuring Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, and Alex Mack, the offensive line is very good.  They will need to be to give McCoy time to throw as the receivers won’t create much separation.

The defense is largely unproven and riddled with no-name players.  Second-year men Joe Haden and TJ Ward need to make big strides to make the secondary formidable.  The defensive line is a work in progress evidenced by the Brownies spending their first two draft picks on linemen Phil Taylor and Jabal Sheard.
 

Biggest Strengths: The offensive line is one the league’s best and will make life at least a little easier for young Colt McCoy and the bruising Peyton Hillis.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: An overall lack of talent; outside of Joe Thomas, no one on the Browns is top-10 league-wide at his position.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC North
 

Cincinnati Bengals
 

The Cincinnati Bengals are definitely in the running for worst record in the league this year, but the great thing about the NFL is that some team surprises you every year.  Bengals fans can cling to that hope, though I consider their outlook very murky.
 

Carson Palmer looks to be firm in his stance that he will retire if he’s not traded, and the Bengals equally firm in that they will not trade Palmer.  That likely means rookie Andy Dalton will be thrown into the fire as the starter, and though he’s a smart and accurate passer, the NFL is a far cry from Texas Christian University.
 

Cedric Benson has quite a bit of wear on the tires, and though he can be a workhorse back, he’s not going to give you much on anything in terms of explosive plays.
 

AJ Green has superstar potential and he will grow up with Dalton which should form a nice duo in the future, but I wouldn’t expect miracles right away.
 

The offensive line is average at best, and it’s high time for Andre Smith to live up to his status as a top-10 draft pick.
 

Defensively the Bengals have some promising young talent.  Despite character concerns—always a popular theme in Cincinnati—Carlos Dunlap came in last year and finished with 9.5 sacks as a rookie.  Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and new addition Manny Lawson give the Bengals one of the most athletic linebacking units in football, though all three players still have plenty to prove.
 

Losing Jonathan Joseph slices away half of what was one of the best corner back duos in the game.  Joseph’s former partner in crime, Leon Hall, now has to look forward to playing opposite either Nate Clements or Pacman Jones.
 

This is a young team with talent but also an overwhelming amount of inexperience, and that should show throughout the season.
 

Biggest Strengths: Young talent abounds with the likes of Andy Dalton, AJ Green, Carlos Dunlap, Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and Leon Hall.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: The team relies entirely on its unproven/inexperienced NFL players.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC North

--from @AdamHocking

NFL Draft Grades 2011: AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore corner situation last year held back what could have been another excellent defense.  Also, it’s probably what stopped them from making the Super Bowl.  With their top pick, the Ravens made a big splash by drafting the mega-talented Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado).  There were off the field concerns about him, but I don’t usually buy into that stuff, especially not with Ray Lewis leading the locker room.  Athletically Smith is on the level of Patrick Peterson, the undisputed best prospect in the draft.  At 6’2”, 210 pounds, Smith runs a 4.42 40-yard dash.  With the speed to stay with any receiver, Smith also is a physical corner that tackles very well.  He is an instant impact player for the Baltimore defense at a huge area of need.

In the next round the Ravens addressed their second-biggest need with a player that could have gone in the first round.  Maryland’s Torrey Smith is a talented, speedy receiver that can complement the bruising possession man Anquan Boldin.  Finally Baltimore’s offense feels complete: a good quarterback in Joe Flacco, a great running back in Ray Rice, and a bevy of wideouts, which now includes a true deep threat.  Productive last year and with good size at 6’1”, 205 pounds, Torrey Smith can run by many NFL corners and will be a perfect fit for Flacco’s great deep ball.

Central Florida offensive tackle Jah Reid was drafted because Jared Gaither may be out the door in free agency this year.  At 6’7” and 330 pounds, he has a great frame for the tackle position and won’t be moved by bull rushes.  Reid needs to work on mechanics, but he has the talent for the position.  In a year or two he may be ready to start.

If Torrey Smith was their deep threat, Tandon Doss (WR, Indiana) was their possession receiver in this draft.  Doss is a big target—6’2”, 200 pounds—who lacks top-end speed but has great hands and likes to go over the middle.

In the fifth round Baltimore nabbed another cover man from Texas (How many damn corners does Texas have?) Chykie Brown.  Fast, agile, and smooth, Brown is a really talented in coverage, but he tends to get overpowered by bigger receivers.  He could be a great fit as a nickel corner.

The Ravens also took a sixth round flyer on Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor.  Who knows what he will be?

I love the pick of Jimmy Smith, a Pro Bowl talent.  Torrey Smith fits a big-time need as a deep threat and is a solid receiver overall.  Reid is a talented offensive tackle that fits a need, but he won’t be ready for a while.  Providing Flacco help to truly thrive is hugely important, so adding a second receiver, Doss, was a nice strategy.  In addition to Jimmy Smith, Brown can help in coverage right away too.  The Ravens’ biggest needs were targets for Flacco and help in the secondary, and they got four players that can all help right away, so I loved their draft.

The quarterback, running back, offensive line, and front seven are very good.  If this rookie class can come in and do what I think they can, they could push Baltimore to a championship.

Grade: A

Cincinnati Bengals

Carson Palmer is not walking through that door, and to me, I’m not sure why the Bengals are holding on to him like grim death.  His best days are behind him, and if Cincinnati can get value for him, trading him seems like a good move.  I know trades can’t be made right now, but the Bengals have repeatedly stated that they will not trade Palmer.

More on that situation in a second, but now onto their first pick, Georgia wideout AJ Green.  Comparisons to Calvin Johnson are not unfounded; he’s a spectacular leaper with great size at 6’4” and 211 pounds.  Though not currently overly physical, Green could add ten pounds of muscle to his long frame without losing much speed, which he has plenty of, running a 4.4 40-yard dash.  He makes an immediate impact as a deep threat and red zone target.

In the second round, the Bengals picked a guy I can’t quite wrap my head around: Andy Dalton (QB, TCU).  The best way I can describe him is that he has first round smarts and fourth round skills.  He’s accurate without a huge arm, but he can make most NFL throws.  In addition, he’s smallish for a quarterback, just 6’2” and 215 pounds.  But hey, Drew Brees is 6’ tall and is among the top-5 quarterbacks in the league.

All of the negatives about Dalton worry me because they remind me of Alex Smith.  Dalton will probably be the starter from Day One, and though his arm isn’t a howitzer, he’s smart enough to pick up an NFL system rapidly.  He struggles getting the ball deep downfield and does not have tremendous mobility.  Plus, he came from a spread offense at TCU, which typically does not prepare quarterbacks for NFL success.

Dalton signals a revamping of the culture in Bengals football, and I don’t mean this to sound like coded bigotry.  Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco—both unlikely to return to the team—aren’t thugs at all; they’re mostly decent guys but they incessantly crave attention.  They distract from the task at hand: winning football games.

In the third round the Bengals addressed their need for a pass rush threat by getting a great athlete in Nevada’s Dontay Mach.  Probably destined to be a situational player, with 4.4 flat speed and a 245-pound frame, Mach has the all physical skills to get to the quarterback.

Clint Boling (OG, Georgia) was a solid pick in the fourth round.  After starting four years in SEC—you know how much I like that—he’ll come in ready for a physical pounding.  Though not a great athlete for the position, Boling is the type of guy who could start this year and be solid, though he may never be great.

A really talented free safety from West Virginia, Robert Sands, came to the Bengals in the fifth.  A 6’4”, 217-pound thumper, sometimes Sands tries to lay people out too much and misses tackles.  He has good speed, and his length is an advantage in breaking up jump balls.

In the sixth round the Bengals nabbed (gasp) a white receiver from Stanford, Ryan Whalen.  Though not a good athlete, Whalen is strong with good hands and should be able to get off the line.  His ceiling is a solid possession receiver, and his basement is not making the team.

AJ Green is an immense talent, one of the most surefire prospects in the draft, who with Owens and Ochocinco out the door, fills a huge need.  Dalton was probably the best choice available in the second round since Palmer has to be replaced, and if nothing else, he will be a solid starter in this league.  Also consider the smarts and leadership he brings to the locker room.  Moch certainly has the physical skills to become a feared pass rusher, but coming from Nevada we’ll have to see how he fares against much stronger competition.  Boling is a pick I love because I think you’re getting a steady starter for the next 5-10 years, not great, but a guy you don’t worry about, unlike Andre Smith.  Sands has big-time potential at safety but plays wild, and Whalen may or may not make the squad.  They filled needs, got one of the best players in the draft, and brought in solid people like Boling and Dalton, so I think Cincy did pretty well for themselves.

Grade: B+

Cleveland Browns

The Browns only won five games last year, but they were a tough out for most everyone they played.  Not overly stocked with talent, they were gritty and had a formula that showed promise.

I think not picking a quarterback was the best thing they did this draft.  With no guaranteed passing prospects available, they were right to give Colt McCoy another year to progress.

With their first pick they drafted the jettisoned Shaun Rogers’ replacement, Baylor nose guard Phil Taylor.  A monster against the run that can occupy two blockers, the 6’4”, 340-pound Taylor still needs to learn the game and get better technique-wise, but he has the ability to be a dominant force.

Pittsburgh’s Jabal Sheard played more defensive end in college, but he’s clearly going to transition to 3-4 outside linebacker in Cleveland.  He has great athleticism, running a 4.68 40-yard dash, and has good size at 6’3” and 265 pounds.  Sheard’s 9 sacks last year in college showed superb pass rush ability.

I felt that Greg Little (WR, North Carolina) was a reach late in the second round, but he does possess tremendous size at 6’3” and 230 pounds.  For such a large frame, running a 4.51 40 is plenty fast, but this guy has a lot to learn and needs to really refine his game.  A big-time talent, it’s a 50/50 proposition if he pans out, and he probably won’t be ready to make an impact this year.

USC’s Jordan Cameron is a very talented tight end to get in the fourth round.  He has soft hands, 4.5 speed, and runs good routes, and he can help right away as a middle of the field target.

The versatile Owen Marecic was a half back and full back at Stanford and was another Cleveland's fourth round picks.  This talented player will make an instant impact as a lead blocker, a receiver, and running back.

They really bolstered their front seven with Taylor and Sheard, which I loved.  Little was a reach, but in the second round he was a decent pick considering his potential ceiling as a dominant, physical force.  Or he could be an athlete that can’t figure out the game and we'll never hear from again.  Cameron will help McCoy right away as a security blanket in the red zone/middle of the field.  He also has some explosive, deep threat ability for a tight end.  Marecic is the type of player you love because he can help in so many ways—running, blocking, receiving, special teams—and he’s smart.

The only thing I thought the Browns needed to do was get even more help for McCoy, though Cameron and Little are guys with big potential.  The Browns have a good offensive line, running game, and spent high picks on the secondary last year.  So clearly skilled receivers and front seven help was the order of the day, and they addressed those needs very well.

Grade: A-

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh doesn’t have a ton of weaknesses; that’s fairly obvious considering they are the defending AFC Champs.

With their first pick they get a guy in Cameron Heyward (DL, Ohio State) who fits in perfectly with their 3-4 scheme.  Pittsburgh is strong but aging along their defensive front, and Heyward adds a dynamic talent that can enter the rotation immediately.

Offensive line may have been a bigger need, but they may get better at that spot just by getting healthy.  Plus, they addressed the line with their second round pick.  Florida tackle Marcus Gilbert is an absolute mammoth that played a ton in college and has the talent to start immediately.  If nothing else, he will be a good backup right away and can develop into a good starter down the road.

With their next pick, the Steelers continued to address their top needs by grabbing the Texas cornerback Curtis Brown.  Exposed by the Packer passing game in the Super Bowl, upgrading the Pittsburgh secondary was a high priority.   Sticky in man coverage, Brown is a talented player who could have gone in the second round.  He has a lot to learn though, foremost how to tackle.

The Citadel’s Cortez Allen, another corner, was a reach even in the fourth, but he does address the corner need.  We just will have to wait to see if he pans out.

Nabbing outside linebacker Chris Carter in the fifth round was a steal; he should have gone in the third round.  In Carter the Steelers drafted a raw, talented athlete to develop and eventually replace James Harrison.  Who better to learn under than Harrison and Lamar Woodley for a young pass rusher? 

Overall I like that the Steelers went strictly for addressing needs.  They probably could have used some help at the skill positions (particularly a replacement for aging Hines Ward) but they upgraded their defensive and offensive lines with their first two picks.  They also added two corners to what was a weak coverage unit last year, and I think at least Curtis Brown can make an instant impact.  Carter was a big talent to get in the fifth that can be groomed to continue the tradition of pass rushing linebackers in the Steel City.  The Steelers aren’t far away from winning it all again, so what they needed to do was get players that can instantly improve their few weaknesses, and that’s just what they did.

Grade: B

--from @AdamHocking

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals

#3 Buffalo Bills

What They Need: No surprise, like most teams at the top of the draft, the Bills need a lot, which of course leads to their high draft pick.  Buffalo has had a bad offensive line for a while now, but there isn’t a lineman in this year’s crop rated as a top ten prospect, much less in the top three.  In my mind, you don’t want to reach for a player when you sit so high in the draft.  At pick #3 you have to nab a big-time talent.  The Bills need wide receivers, and certainly there are some game changing prospects that will be available here in AJ Green and Julio Jones.  Still, receivers have a somewhat limited impact on the game, so I’m not sure one should go this high.  Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick showed at the very least that he can take care of the ball and keep his team in games.  He affords Buffalo the chance to address other areas of need, unless they really want a quarterback.  The running back situation is solid with CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson forming a nice duo.  The defense has some true bright spots.  Defensive tackle Kyle Williams made the Pro Bowl, linebacker Paul Posluszny is an emerging star, and Jairus Byrd is a top talent at safety.  With one young star at each level of the defense, that’s what the Bills need to build their identity on.

Who They Might Pick: If the Bills are enamored with Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert, then they should take either one if they’re on the board.  But if they aren’t completely infatuated with either, they should go defense.  Adding one top defensive player could give the Bills a really promising unit.  The Bills ranked last in the league against the run last year, so defensive line is probably the area of greatest need.  If Nick Fairley, Marcel Dareus, or perhaps Oregon State nose tackle Stephen Paea is on the board, they would be good picks.  Paea might be a reach, but he’s a monster against the run and benched 225 pounds a record 49 times at the combine.  The Bills were excellent against the pass last year, ranking third in the NFL, but they could still use a corner like Patrick Peterson.  Any team could.

My Advice: Since I told the Panthers to take Fairley and the Broncos to nab Peterson, I think Paea or Dareus should be the Bills pick.  Dareus is the more disruptive force against the pass and is the much higher rated prospect, so he's my man.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they look Newton's way with this selection, if only to draw attention to the franchise and build around a transcendent athlete.

#4 Cincinnati Bengals

What They Need: This is the hardest team in the draft to predict.  One reason is simply that they’re the Bengals.  The other is that Carson Palmer threatens to retire unless he’s traded.  Most experts think Palmer will come around and be the Bengals' guy again next year, but I don’t.  I’ve read interviews where Palmer has said he believes the NFL is getting too violent and that somebody is going to die on the field.  He doesn't love the game anymore, at least not in Cincinnati.  I think he’s a smart man, and unless he goes to an ideal spot, he’ll retire.  That’s a roundabout way of saying the Bengals may be looking for a passer at the top of the draft.  Needs abound however for the Bengals; there’s no shortage of ways they could go with this pick.  Terrell Owens is probably out the door, and Chad Ochocinco may follow.  The offensive line could use help as well.  The Bengals have good young linebackers and a talented corner duo but need help on the defensive line and at safety.

Who They Might Pick: We’ve identified offensive line, wide receiver, defensive line, safety, and potentially quarterback as the main areas of need.  If Palmer leaves, or if Cincy believes he will retire, then I would guess they’d take whichever player between Newton and Gabbert they like best.  If they don’t love either passer, I think they go either wide receiver or defensive lineman.  This is too high a spot to reach for a safety, and in a weak offensive line year they shouldn’t go in that direction either.  AJ Green from Georgia is the highest rated receiver in the draft, though Julio Jones (who ran a 4.3 40 with a broken foot) is rising up draft boards.  Either one of those players would be a nice addition, but if Palmer’s out the door, it might not make much sense to grab a wideout without a guy to get him the ball.  That leaves a defensive line opening, and the Bengals are often enamored with tremendous athletes.  That could mean pass rushers Von Miller from Texas A&M, Robert Quinn from North Carolina, or Da’Quan Bowers from Clemson.  Fairley and Dareus are possibilities as well if they’re still on the board.

My Advice: In my personal draft universe, Dareus and Fairley are gone.  That leaves Bowers as the best available option to bolster the Bengal pass rush.  If Palmer is gone I would have no problem drafting a passer here either.  But rationally, I think the run on defense should continue, and Bowers should be the pick.  It would be astounding though if my advice came to fruition: no offensive players taken in the first four picks.

--from Adam