NFC North: 2011 Division Preview

Green Bay Packers

This feels weird to say, but the defending Super Bowl champs have nowhere to go but up.  Consider that the generous helping of success last year came to one of the youngest teams in league and one that experienced an unprecedented rash of injuries.  With all their young guys gaining a year of Championship experience and all the walking wounded coming back healthy and ready to go, it’s easy to see why both Adam and I predict the Green Bay Packers repeat as Super Bowl Champions.

Our optimism also stems from who we have at QB1—the most important position in football—the league’s overall best player, Aaron Rodgers.  With off-the-charts accuracy, abundant arm strength, a quick release, surprising mobility, and the same number of rings as Brett Favre, Rodgers has it all.  Entering just his fourth year as a starter, expect big-time numbers.

Also at Rodgers’ disposal is one of the deepest receiving corps in football.  You can argue that since Rodgers is so great, he makes his receivers look great, but you cannot deny the raw talent on display.  There’s the game-breaking ability of Greg Jennings; the wily veteran, Donald Driver; the best third receiver in football, James Jones; and saying that, he’s in danger of losing his job to Jordy Nelson.

Before his season ended in Week 5 last year, über-athletic tight end Jermichael Finley was Rodgers’ favorite target.  Should Finley stay healthy, look for a big season out of him.

One of my biggest concerns heading into the offseason was addressing a position guys have shuffled in and out of for years, kick returner.  GM Ted Thompson allayed those fears when he drafted Randall Cobb, a dynamic return man out of Kentucky that should see action in the receiving game as well.

The Packer offense had trouble running the ball last year, which only leaves room for improvement.  Ryan Grant missed all but one half of football last season after injuring his ankle Week 1.  His return gives the offense a boost, but relying on a 28-year-old running back coming off a serious lower body injury may be a dicey proposition.  That is where last season’s playoff revelation, James Starks, can pick up the slack.  Add to those two the strong Alex Green drafted out of Hawai’i, and Green Bay should have a competent running back trio.

Though the defense lost one of its stalwarts, Cullen Jenkins, in free agency, Dom Capers still has enough guys to make you stand up and shout.

A beast off the edge, Clay Matthews is perhaps the most dynamic presence in all of football.  His speed, strength, and tenacity are unmatched.

Just one year removed from a Defensive Player of the Year campaign, team leader Charles Woodson now roams and creates havoc anywhere on the field.  Free from strict cover duty with the emergence of Tramon Williams and the speedy Sam Shields as excellent cornerbacks, Woodson can play in the box as another linebacker, feel comfortable covering a team’s 3rd-best receiver, and is extremely dangerous blitzing quarterbacks off the slot.

In the same first round where they drafted Matthews, the Packers also nabbed “The Freezer,” nose tackle BJ Raji.  Devouring double teams comes easy for the lynchpin of Green Bay’s 3-4, and Raji has spectacular pass rush ability from the inside as well.

The NFL these days is a pass-first league.  In order to win a team must throw the ball efficiently and stop opposing teams’ aerial attacks, mainly through pass rush.  Green Bay excels in both areas.  Unified from the front office to Mike McCarthy and his coaching staff all the way to the players on the field, the Green Bay Packers are going to be a very good team for a very long time.

Biggest Strengths: Aaron Rodgers (of course) and continuity.  Even though the Packers did not make a splash in the free agent market—they never do—in the lockout-shortened offseason, not having to acclimate so many new players works to the Packers’ advantage.

Biggest Weaknesses: Offensive line play.  Chad Clifton must stay healthy, rookie Derek Sherrod must come in and replace long-time starter Daryn Colledge, and the unit as a whole must get better opening holes for a fledgling running attack.

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in NFC North

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in NFC North

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are a sexy pick this year to come out and do something they haven’t done since the year 2000, win.  This looks like the year where all the pieces Detroit has assembled will put it together and go on a tear through the NFC.

Matthew Stafford undoubtedly is just what Detroit needs at quarterback.  Watching him play, he has proven that he has “it.”  All he hasn’t done is stay healthy.  Stafford must remain in the lineup for this team to fulfill its cosmic potential.

This potential jumps off the screen when looking at who else the Lions have on offense.  Calvin Johnson is a top-5 NFL receiver with freakish size and speed.  Though rookie second round pick Mikel Leshoure is done for the season with a torn Achilles, the Lions will still have a dynamite two-back combination with Jahvid Best and new addition Jerome Harrison.  Scott Linehan’s two tight end sets showed a lot of promise last year; Brandon Pettigrew’s and Tony Scheffler’s skillsets are tough to gameplan against.

The defensive line assembled under Jim Schwartz and Gunther Cunningham is downright scary.  In only his second year, Ndamukong Suh is already among the most impactful defensive linemen in the NFL.  Suh’s strength, speed, and quickness make him unblockable.  Joining Suh in the trenches is this year’s thirteenth overall pick and a guy who many believe had first overall talent, defensive tackle Nick Fairley.  Flanking those monsters are the tenacious Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril, who comes off an 8.5-sack 2010 season.  With Suh and Fairley drawing double teams upon double teams, Vanden Bosch and Avril should punish opposing quarterbacks.

Elsewhere on defense, former Titan Stephen Tulloch will join his old defensive coordinator in Schwartz and vastly improve the Detroit linebacking group.

Beyond rising star safety Louis Delmas, the secondary is still a work in progress, but they did bring in Eric Wright to hopefully lock down one cornerback spot.  Pressure from the front four should really alleviate the burden on the back end, so if the secondary can at the very least be average, then this defense should go far.

Biggest Strengths: A young, talented team coming together around a young coach and quarterback.

Biggest Weaknesses: The offensive line is a sub-par unit.  They must improve to protect the fragile franchise quarterback, Matthew Stafford.

Eric’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in NFC North

Adam’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in NFC North

Minnesota Vikings

The one move that didn’t happen has me a lot lower on the Vikings’ chances than I would have been, and that was their failure to re-sign Sidney Rice.  I love bringing in Donovan McNabb; I think he still has productive years left in him.  I understand people are down on McNabb after a lackluster 2010, but he was really hampered by playing in the talentless black hole that was the Washington Redskins.  The only problem is, aside from Adrian Peterson, these Sidney Rice-less Vikings look a lot like the Redskins.  Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe, and a bunch of nobodies greatly resemble Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, and a bunch of nobodies.

Let’s not be all gloom and doom though.  Yes, the Vikings’ skill guys may not be that much better than Washington’s, but McNabb will now have the best running back he’s ever played with.  Our pick for best running back in football, Peterson outhits would-be tacklers and always delivers a little punishment of his own.  Such a big back that can cut, find holes, and burst into the open field is something to behold.

The defense is spearheaded by its defensive line, Jerad Allen and Kevin Williams in particular.  Both of those guys are top-5 league-wide in their respective positions.  The stout linebacking corps boasts stud Chad Greenway and heavy hitter EJ Henderson when healthy.  Yet, though once a top-flight unit, the aging front seven is no longer good enough to cover up for a poor secondary.

The offensive line is deteriorating quickly, especially after the release of Bryant McKinnie, who reportedly showed up to training camp weighing nearly 400 pounds.  Steve Hutchinson is no longer the elite player he once was, and outside of that the Vikings are still waiting to see if Phil Loadholt can become a solid player rather than just a heavily penalized giant who takes up space.

All told, this veteran team's window is closing quickly if not already shut.  Bringing in McNabb is a stopgap move—I was clamoring for the Vikings to bring in McNabb before Favre ever got there—that should help the team marginally in the short-term and perhaps somewhat more in the long-term as McNabb can mentor first round reach Christian Ponder.

Biggest Strengths: No matter who surrounds him, Adrian Peterson is a lock for a stellar season.

Biggest Weaknesses: The loss of Sidney Rice leaves a gaping hole at wide receiver, and Father Time is catching up quickly.

Eric’s Prediction: 8-8, Third in NFC North

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in NFC North

Chicago Bears

The Bears still suck.

--from @jeuneski

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC North

Chicago Bears

I don’t care what you tell me, the Bears weren’t that good of a football team last year.  They only made the NFC Title game because they got to play the Seahawks in the Divisional Round.  Chicago ranked 28th in passing offense, 22nd in rushing offense, 20th defending the pass, and 2nd defending the run.  Their only true strength was stopping the run, Jay Cutler was as erratic as ever, the offensive line ranged from abysmal to serviceable, and the pass coverage was inconsistent.  The Bears have a lot of holes to address, and they only had five picks to fill those holes in this draft.

In the first round picking offensive tackle Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin) was a great move.  Ready to start from day one, Carimi could turn into a dominant run blocker.  Physically, Carimi won’t be overmatched by anyone at 6’7” and 315 pounds.  Despite his enormous frame and brute strength, Carimi is light on his feet and quite adept in pass protection.  I believe he should be solid immediately and could develop into an elite, Pro Bowl player.

The Bears’ second round pick, Oregon State defensive tackle Stephen Paea, builds on an existing strength, their run defense.  Paea will likely take the place of oft-injured Tommie Harris in the middle of the line, and he should do a good job of it.  Incredibly strong (a record 49 reps at the combine) Paea also has surprising quickness off the snap.  He won’t rush the passer, but he’ll be a force against the run.

Those two players, while good, essentially make up the core of the Bear’s draft class.  Nathan Enderle is a project quarterback from Idaho the Bears selected in the fifth round.  He won’t see the field unless a few people get injured, and I think the Bears could have addressed their receiving corps, offensive line, or secondary with the pick.

They did get defensive back Chris Conte from California in the late third round, which fits a big need.  Conte is a safety converted from cornerback and was a late riser on draft boards.   He should contribute early and bolster the secondary.

The Bears did well with their first three picks: Carimi, Paea, and Conte.  The first two should start right away and Conte will contribute on defense and special teams.  Enderle was a head scratching pick, and while the Bears filled some big needs, they have many holes remaining.  The picks they made were good, but they needed more of them.

Grade: C+

Detroit Lions

Don’t look now, but the Lions have drafted extremely well recently.  Matt Stafford looks like a star talent when he’s healthy.  Calvin Johnson is the most physically imposing receiver in the league.  Last year Ndamukong Suh may have been the most dominant rookie of the past decade.  Jhavid Best, Louis Delmas, and Brandon Pettigrew all look to have promising futures in this league as well.  Detroit is becoming a talented team, year by year adding big time players.

In 2011 enter Nick Fairley.  Maybe Fairley didn’t fit a huge need, but getting one of the five best players in this draft at pick 14 was too good to pass up.  Fairley now pairs with Suh to create what should be one of the most feared defensive fronts in the NFL for the next 8-10 years.  Don’t forget Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams, and Cliff Avril, all quality players still in the mix too.

Second round pick Titus Young (WR, Boise State) is the perfect foil to the gargantuan Johnson: small, quick, precise in his routes, and has very good speed.  He’s a smart player that catches the ball almost every time and can even help in the return game.

Then at pick 25 in the second round, Detroit got what I think was a first round talent in Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure.  Rated by some as the best running back in this draft, Leshoure is big at 6’0” and 227 pounds, very strong, and has enough speed with a 4.56 40.  He’s the physical back Detroit has been missing, a guy that can carry the ball effectively 20 times per game.  Leshoure should perfectly complement the scat back contributions of Best, and together they could form one of the league’s best young backfields.  Stafford, Best, Leshoure, Johnson, Pettis, and Pettigrew are a really impressive nucleus of young talent on the offensive side of the ball.

Though the first three picks were, I thought, fantastic, the Lions only selected two more players in the whole draft.  Fifth rounder Douglas Hoge (LB, Syracuse) is an athletic player who will most likely find his niche on special teams.  Johnny Culbreath in the seventh round is an offensive tackle who has an outside chance at making the team.

Fairley and Leshoure can be Pro Bowl players in my opinion, and I love that the Lions just decided “Hey, wouldn’t it be cool to have the best defensive tackle duo in the league for the next decade?”  Pettis, an excellent slot receiver and multi-purpose player, could take this offense to another level.  Like the Bears, Detroit only had a few nice picks and not much else, but the Lions’ top three choices really blew me away.

Grade: B+

Green Bay Packers

The Packers had the luxury of having minimal needs heading into this draft.  They’re coming off a Super Bowl performance in which several key starters weren’t even healthy enough to play, and they still won.  With most of those starters back in the fold this coming year, in effect this draft was just icing to an already scrumptious cake.

If there was a need on this team, it was offensive line.  Sure that unit was solid last year, but it wasn’t spectacular.  It’s aging in spots, and Aaron Rodgers is the single most important player in the league to protect.  With that, I loved the pick of Mississppi State tackle Derek Sherrod with the last pick in the first round.  He is a solid, first round talent, and many projected him to go higher than thirty-second.  At 6’5”, 321 pounds, he has the prototypical build to play offensive tackle in the NFL.  Having started his last three seasons, 50 total games in the rugged SEC, Sherrod should be used to pressure environments and a high level of physicality.  He’s quick for his size, smart, and has long arms.

Sherrod certainly brings a great attitude and an immense amount of talent to an improving Packer line.  Providing depth behind the Packers’ two starting tackles Brian Bulaga and the aging but still productive Chad Clifton, Sherrod may even slide in to play guard.  Bulaga, Sherrod, and guard Josh Sitton create a wonderful young foundation for the Green Bay offensive line.

If it’s possible, I like the Packers’ second round choice even more than their first.  Drafting a receiver wasn’t a need, but in getting Kentucky wideout Randall Cobb, the Packers took an already electric offense to off the charts territory.  Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson represent the league’s best receiving corps, but none of those guys is the smallish, cat-quick, slot-type receiver that can find openings underneath defenses.  Cobb is that man.  He has a lightning quick first step and is surprisingly strong, which helps him get his release off the line of scrimmage.  Plus, he has great hands and runs tremendous routes.  Scouts say football is his first love and they expect him to be a dedicated pro.  Cobb also brings intriguing talent to the return game, where his sudden quickness and agility might lead to some game-breaking returns.

In the third round the Packers continued to add weapons to the arsenal by bringing in the talented and bruising running back from Hawaii, Alex Green.  Green is 6’0”, 225 pounds and ran a 4.45 40-yard dash.  A punishing, make-one-cut-and-go runner with surprisingly good hands and very good acceleration, Green should make an impact right away, especially in short yardage situations.

The Green Bay receiving corps is deep, but the running back group is stockpiled as well with returning star Ryan Grant, last year’s breakout performer James Starks, and the rookie Green.  When the Packers run the ball, they’ll have an improved line and three talented backs to give the ball to.

In the fourth round the Packers continue their perfect weekend by selecting New Mexico State corner Davon House, who many had rated as a mid-second round prospect.  House will join the stud group of Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields.  If House is ready to make an impact as a nickel corner, that will free up Woodson even more to continue to rove between safety, corner, and blitz linebacker.  Essentially, the selection of House makes the league’s best secondary even more versatile.

In the fifth round, the Packers were clearly trying to make my head explode when they got my top-rated tight end in the draft, Arkansas’ DJ Williams.  Williams played in Bobby Petrino’s pro-style offense, had laser-armed quarterback in Ryan Mallett, and was hugely productive in the toughest college conference, the SEC.  At 6’2” and 245 pounds, Williams joins Cobb as a great middle of the field target.  He will be a nightmare for linebackers or safeties to cover with his 4.59 40 speed, soft hands, and great route running.

Williams and the returning mega-talent Jermichael Finley give the Packers the best tight end duo in the league.  Add to that to the best quarterback in the league, the best receiving corps in the league, a three deep running back rotation, and a much improved offensive line. Shnikees.

The Packers finished out the draft by adding depth and developmental players to the offensive and defensive lines.  Guard Caleb Schlauderaff from Utah was a nice pick in the fifth round.  He’s not overly talented but was a third team All-American as a senior and started virtually his entire career at Utah.  He’s considered a guy that should make the team, provide quality depth, and maybe even challenge for a starting spot.  The Pack may have also nabbed a steal in the sixth round with defensive lineman Ricky Elmore, who has a really quick first step and a knack for getting to the quarterback.

A team that didn’t need much improvement drastically improved.  They got a stud offensive tackle and a guard that should certainly make their final roster.  They got the one type of receiver they’ve been missing, a lightning-quick slot man who also returns kicks.  They added a physical, fast, punishing back to an already talented backfield.  They got a cornerback in the fourth round that could have gone early in the second and will give an already versatile secondary even more options.  They also got the best tight end in the draft, and can now pair him with the most athletically gifted tight end in the league.  With the coaching the Packers have in place, all of these players can reach their highest potential, and that is a frightening for the rest of the league.

Grade: A+

Minnesota Vikings

Maybe Christian Ponder will be a really nice quarterback in this league.  He’s athletic with a good but not great arm, a very talented player.  But that’s not quite the point.  Just like Jake Locker—who went eighth to the Titans—Ponder could have been had later in the draft, perhaps in the second round.  I suppose if the Vikings loved Ponder, it’s an okay move, but why not try to move back in the draft, accrue more picks, and look for Ponder in round two?

I digress…onto Ponder as a prospect.  With good size at 6’2” and 230 pounds, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.63 seconds, joining Locker, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick in what was an incredibly athletic QB class.  Ponder is a good kid that wants to win and was a leader at Florida State.  When he makes the correct read, he can be very accurate.  It’s just that he often has trouble reading defenses and makes a lot of ill-advised throws.  That only figures to get worse as a rookie starter in the NFL.  Ponder may well get to an elite level, but it’s going to take at least three years.

On the bright side for Ponder, he’s stepping into a system with weapons like Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, and fellow rookie Kyle Rudolph.  Notre Dame’s Rudolph was widely regarded as the best tight end in this draft.  He’s a big, smooth athlete with soft hands, good speed, good size, that came from a pro system.  He’s an effective route runner as well, the type of player that could be good right away but may never be great.

I really like their next three picks.  Christian Ballard (DL, Iowa) is a really good player that could have gone in the late second round, but the Vikings got him in the fourth.   At 6’4” and 283 pounds, he is big and strong enough to play defensive tackle.  Running a 4.75 40 at Ballard’s size was also very impressive, which indicates he’s athletic enough to be a pass rushing end as well.  Versatile, talented, and tough, if nothing else, Ballard provides quality depth to the line in his first season.

Getting Utah corner Brandon Burton in the fifth round may have been a slight steal; he definitely adds depth to a position of need on the Vikings.  His measureables aren’t mind blowing, but they’re adequate, and he’s a smart, instinctive, and tough player.

Demarcus Love (OT, Arkansas) was a great value in the sixth.  At 6’4” and 315, Love is a strong run blocker that could move to guard in the NFL.  He’s an imposing, nasty presence that started 37 games in the SEC and was a team captain.  In other words, he’s been through a lot of wars in the trenches of a tough conference and was a leader on his team.

Ponder was taken too high, but he is a gifted player and the Vikings needed a quarterback badly.  Rudolph adds a really nice talent to an already loaded offense.  Ballard and Burton will both see the field and could become starters, and I think the selection of Love will reap immediate benefits.  The Vikes also had five more developmental picks in the late sixth and seventh rounds.  One or two of those players will probably surprise and make the team.  Overall the Vikings got better in this draft, and the only time they reached was on a very talented player at a position of major need.

Grade: B

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers

#31 Pittsburgh Steelers

What They Need: They were very good last year but fell just short in a great Super Bowl battle.  Pittsburgh typically struggles with the Super Bowl hangover—the last two times they won the big game, they failed to make the playoffs in the following year—so we’ll see if next season is different, seeing as how they didn’t win.  Quarterback is all set with Ben Roethlisberger, unless he does something really stupid this offseason, which is always a possibility.  Rashard Mendenhall is a terrific young back that can do virtually anything on a football field.  He could use a quality backup though.  Hines Ward is really getting old and has clearly slowed down, though he is still a viable possession player.  One guy who hasn’t slowed down is the human blur Mike Wallace, who proved last year he is one of the league’s best deep threats.  Heath Miller is an outstanding tight end who won’t blow anybody away with physical skills, but is an asset in the pass and run games.  The weak spot on this offense is the line.  Last year Roethlisberger was running for his life—granted, that’s his style—entirely too often.  Part of the problem was simply injuries as Pittsburgh lost both of their starting tackles for the season.  Maurkice Pouncey proved to be a steal at center as a late first round pick and is already a Pro Bowl player.  Outside of Pouncey I think any of the linemen could stand to be replaced.  Defense is obviously where the Steelers are strong.  The front line of Ziggy Hood, Casey Hampton, and Brett Keisel is exceptionally stout against the run and excellent at consuming blocks.  Hampton, Keisel, and Aaron Smith are all north of 30 but still have plenty left in their respective tanks.  Lamar Woodley, James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons, and James Harrison compose the best linebacking group in football.  Farrior and Harrison are getting older, and Farrior especially is showing signs of decline.  Safety is a very strong position on this team between mega star Troy Polamalu and the solid Ryan Clark.  Corner is in need of an upgrade between starters Ike Taylor and Brian McFadden.

Who They Might Pick: They could nab a number of different positions here, particularly receiver, offensive lineman, or corner.  The latter two are probably the most pressing needs.  It would be neat if Maurkice’s brother Mike Pouncey fell to this spot and they could start on the same offensive line.  Pouncey will likely be gone however, and Danny Watkins, the guard from Baylor, is a bigger possibility.  Gabe Carimi is still on my board, though he will likely be picked higher.  I doubt any of the top offensive tackles will be available here.  Marcus Cannon (TCU) is a behemoth offensive tackle and is a possibility, though he might be able to be gotten later.  Ben Ijalana is a guard from Villanova who was great in college, but that was at the FCS level.  Maybe they could think about selecting an heir apparent to Farrior, and if that’s the case, the super athlete Martez Wilson (Illinois) could be a thought.  Corner might be the Steelers’ only area of need that wouldn’t involve a significant reach here.  Jimmy Smith (Colorado), Brandon Harris (Miami), Aaron Williams (Texas), Ras-I Dowling (Virginia), and Davon House (New Mexico State) could all be available at pick thirty-one.

My Advice: The Steelers have to improve their offensive line, so I’ll give them the mammoth Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin.  He’s a force in the run game and will be an upgrade in pass protection, though that’s not his strong suit.  Since Carimi might not be available this late, a good alternative for the Steelers would be the physical corner Dowling.

With the thirty-first pick, the Pittsburgh Steelers take Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin.

#32 Green Bay Packers

What They Need: They need health and they should get just that.  Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, Nick Barnett, Brad Jones, and Atari Bigby are all starters who missed most of last year to injuries.  With those players back in the fold, needs are truly at a minimum.  Aaron Rodgers is perhaps the best quarterback in the NFL (yes I said it, even though Tom Brady and Peyton Manning aren’t supposed to move from their concrete spots as the two best passers in the league).  James Starks showed nice flashes last year as a rookie runner, and Grant should be ready to go at the start of the season.  Those two provide a more than ample rushing threat for the pass-happy Pack.  The receiving corps is the deepest in the league with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Finley.  The offensive line is the only real weakness on the offense, and really, calling it weak is inaccurate.  They were pretty darn good in the playoffs last year and got better throughout the season.  Brian Bulaga is going to be a very good tackle for a long time in the NFL, and Josh Sitton is a stud at guard.  Scott Wells is the definition of solid at center.  Give me a guy at that position whose name I don’t hear all game, and I’m happy.  Daryn Colledge could probably stand to be replaced, and while Mark Tauscher was excellent last year, he’s 33 with a history of injuries.  Amazingly, the Packers' defense might have fewer needs than the offense.  The front line of BJ Raji, Cullen Jenkins, and Ryan Pickett is a play-making, immoveable unit.  Second year man Mike Neal should develop further and could provide nice depth along the defensive front.  Another solid guy to fit in the defensive line rotation would be nice though.  The linebacking corps has an embarrassment of riches with Clay Matthews, Barnett, AJ Hawk, Desmond Bishop, Brad Jones, Erick Walden, Brady Poppinga, and Brandon Chillar fighting over four spots.  Finding a pure pass rusher to put opposite of the Matthews would be a nice idea.  The secondary is tremendous.  Charles Woodson doesn’t even have to play corner anymore with the emergence of young stars Tramon Williams and Sam Shields.  Woodson will play safety, corner, and linebacker at times, and that versatility will help really prolong his career.  Nick Collins is one of the best four or five safeties in football and Charlie Peprah doesn’t make mistakes.  Morgan Burnett should come along as well.

Who They Might Pick: Though you can’t call any area a glaring need, offensive or defensive line is where the Packers could improve most.  Cameron Heyward (Ohio State) might just be lingering on the board and would be a great pick to add depth and talent to the defensive line.  Marvin Austin, Corey Liuget, or Stephen Paea are all defensive linemen who could play in the 3-4.  Mike Pouncey, Watkins, or Ijalana could all fit at guard even if they don’t start immediately.  I also think the Packers could simply use this selection on the best player available.  Kyle Rudolph would be a fun toy at tight end for Rodgers to play with.  He’s not a need, but putting Rudolph on the field with Finley would make this offense even more frightening.  Akeem Ayers could possibly be on the board as an edge rusher, and if not, Brooks Reed (Arizona) might fit that mold as well.  I also think running back could be an idea.  Starks is not proven yet, and Grant is coming off a major knee injury.  Mikel LeShoure (Illinois) and Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech) are considered fringe, first round talents at the halfback position.  I also think Green Bay could trade this pick to move up and nab a real impact player or move down and accrue more selections.

My Advice: There’s plenty of time to address the offensive and defensive lines later in the draft.  With this pick the Packers need to get the best talent available and avoid reaching.  Green Bay should take Mikel LeShoure from Illinois.  No, running back is not a huge need, but LeShoure is a big time talent, and at 227 pounds would add a smash-mouth element this team has been missing.  LeShoure can get the tough yards and could be a real weapon on the goal line.

For the thirty-second selection, the Green Bay Packers pick Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois.

--from Adam

(images from zimbio.com)

Repeat Offenders: The 2011 Green Bay Packers

While repeating as Super Bowl champions is incredibly difficult, the Green Bay Packers have a great shot to do exactly that.  Normally when teams win it all they have the perfect storm of luck, talent, and health.  Yet, the Packers really couldn’t have been less healthy than they were this year.  In fact, unless lightning strikes in the same spot twice, they’re almost assured of being a healthier team heading into—and throughout—next season.   So if they hoisted Lombardi’s trophy this year getting less than perfect breaks, what do you think they could do next year?

I hear you, “The Saints had it all coming back this year, and they couldn’t do it.”  Or, “The Steelers missed the playoffs in both seasons following their last two Super Bowls.”  I get it, and that’s true.  The NFL is the most competitive league on Earth and repeating success is unimaginably tough, but in Title Town, there are many reasons to think differently.

#1: Aaron Rodgers

The People's Champ

This guy is just walking in the door of his prime playing years, and as he showed during this past playoff run, he is fully capable of playing as good as any quarterback in NFL history.  That’s what he did against Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, and Pittsburgh.

Rodgers may put on the title belt as a celebration, but it may as well be a tool belt because he has every instrument imaginable at his disposal: Great feet, huge arm, laser-like accuracy, great awareness, tremendous vision, coolness in the huddle and the pocket, a sponge-like mind for the game, and an insatiable desire to prepare and get better.  This guy is Peyton Manning with a quicker release and twice the athleticism.  He’s not just a top-3 quarterback in the league; he ranks in the top three in terms of any characteristic you would want from a signal caller.

He did have concussion scares last season, but with a new helmet, increasingly strict league rules, an improving offensive line, and Rodgers’ own increased self-awareness, I don’t think he’ll take too many major head shots next year.  Plus, Matt Flynn is a more than capable fill-in for a few games if need be.

#2: This is Green Bay.  It ain’t New Orleans.

Say all you want that the excessive partying in New Orleans didn’t give the Saints a hangover heading into this season, but I don’t buy it.  That whole city had been devastated by Hurricane Katrina.  In winning the Super Bowl, its citizens and the team itself found the perfect excuse (and I totally supported it) to go nuts.  They deserved it, and after the Saints won their ring you could almost feel the whole city exhale.   The Saints were no longer the “Ain’ts,” and they had done so much to revive their city.  It was practically expected for the players to get caught up in the history and magnitude of that moment.  There was simply no way they would be totally focused for the new season, and early on this year, it showed.

Conversely, Green Bay, Wisconsin is nothing but the Packers.  We aren’t looking to party all offseason.  Hell, we just can’t wait for the next season to kick off.  The Packers reflect this in their management and in their players.   The fire burning from the Packers’ championship has already started to dim in the media, whereas New Orleans is still looking for ways to celebrate its Super Bowl from two years ago.   I can’t help but think the low-key nature of Green Bay—and the singular football focus Wisconsin as a state displays—will help keep the Packers on the winning track.

Also unlike New Orleans, we aren’t coming back from tragedy, but we are coming back from Brett Favre treason.  And the only way for us to recover as a collective culture is through more football success.  Every Packer win in the next ten years not only fuels a football crazed state but also puts the treachery of Favre further on the backburner.   

#3: Did I mention the Packers were a bit dinged up this year?

Game Over?  Not Quite

Jermichael Finley, Ryan Grant, James Starks, Mark Tauscher, Rodgers, Donald Driver, Clay Matthews, Nick Barnett, Brady Poppinga, Brandon Chillar, Brad Jones, Cullen Jenkins, Johnny Jolly, Atari Bigby, Morgan Burnett, Al Harris.  No, I didn’t just name the entire Green Bay Roster; I named players that either missed some time or most of the season to injury.  Finley, who has the talent to be an All Pro tight end, hardly saw the field as a Week 5 injury derailed his season.  Grant, a perennial 1200 yard rusher, was lost after just Week 1.  The whole linebacking corps was decimated by injury, and Harris and Bigby were thought to be essential components of the secondary entering this season.

You have to assume Green Bay will be playing with a fuller deck next year than they did this, especially with the return of Finley and Grant.  Granted, some of these players may not be back as the Pack will lose at least some to free agency.  Barnett is Pro Bowl-level player, though Desmond Bishop is younger and had a strong showing, so he may be expendable.  Harris was let go because Tramon Williams suddenly became a star corner.

The story of the 2010 Packers, one guy goes down and another guy steps up and plays even better.  Now Green Bay will get back most of its injured guys and combine them with young, former backups that got huge experience this year.

Just imagine that the Packers make a move or two in free agency and have another solid draft to help bolster the offensive line.  Then the all-world Rodgers is sitting behind a potentially excellent group of blockers, handing off to recovered Pro Bowler Grant and the emerging Starks, and passing to the NFL's deepest receiving corps, which includes superstar Greg Jennings and Finley, maybe the most physically gifted tight end in the league.

Then imagine the defense, which despite the injuries, was the 2^nd best unit in the NFL.  BJ Raji is among the top five interior linemen in the league.  Jenkins is a terrific defensive end who’s still in his prime.  Matthews is the best pass rusher in football.  AJ Hawk comes off his best year as a pro.  Barnett or Bishop will start inside as well.  Jones, who showed a good deal of promise as a rookie two years ago, will be back opposite Matthews.  Williams and Sam Shields represent one of the youngest and most talented corner duos in football.  Charles Woodson is aging, but that won’t matter because as Shields and Williams have emerged as such sticky cover men, Woodson can play wherever he wants.  His position should just be called, “havoc,” because that’s what he creates all over the field all the time.  Nick Collins might be the best safety in the NFC who made perhaps the play of the Super Bowl with his pick six.  Opposite him the Packers will have the choice of three young, talented safeties in Bigby, Charlie Peprah, and Burnett.

#4: The Packers have the second youngest roster in the league…

…that gained a tremendous amount of experience and confidence by winning the Super Bowl.  Nothing will build a young player’s confidence like playing for the best team in the sport.  Rodgers, Starks, Jennings, James Jones, Finley, Josh Sitton, Bryan Bulaga, Raji, Matthews, Hawk, Williams, Shields, Collins.  All of those guys are either stars or potential stars; the oldest guy on the list is 28.  Expect improvement.  Scary.

#5: Ted Thompson, Mike McCarthy, and Dom Capers

Thompson just keeps pulling all the right strings in the personnel department, keeping the Packers financially stable, stocked with talent, and high on character.  McCarthy has full command of the offense, all the right pieces to run his scheme, and the respect that comes with being a Super Bowl winning head coach.  Capers is simply a genius with the best defensive personnel in the league.

Conclusion:  So there you have it, irrefutable evidence points to a Packer repeat.  You can accuse me of gushing about the Packers, but is there anything I said that isn’t true?  This team is stocked, locked, and loaded for another run at the trophy which calls Green Bay its true home.

--from Adam

(first image from blippett.com and second from thesportsbank.net)

Packing the Right Equipment: Green Bay and the NFL

The 2010-2011 Green Bay Packers’ postseason run taught us some valuable lessons on what it takes to win in the NFL and just what it took for the Packers themselves to reach the ultimate pinnacle of success as Super Bowl champions.  We learned that the Packers’ model of consistency and building through the draft is a pretty damn good strategy.  It’s one that is going to keep the Packers competitive for years to come, and we saw how it allowed them to weather the freakish amount of injuries they endured throughout this year.

Bryan Bulaga: One of many who stepped in and stepped up

With the possibility of an 18-game season in the future (Don’t worry, I’m not veering toward CBA talk.) the importance of depth and the ability to replace injured players will only grow.  Green Bay’s management understands this, and they also understood that even at 16 games, the NFL is a war of attrition.  The team that reaches—and subsequnetly wins—the Super Bowl is the team best able to survive the many injuries that inevitably every team will sustain throughout the year.  And no team endured more injuries to key players and overcame them like the Packers.

Next we learned that thinking long-term in the NFL pays huge dividends.

The Packers didn’t pull the trigger on a possible mid-season trade to acquire Marshawn Lynch, a move most Packer fans were in favor of, and as a result will have more financial flexibility—not to mention draft picks—moving forward.

By not making that move, they also kept their home grown team together.  For most of the Green Bay roster, players have known just one system, one city, and one philosophy in their NFL careers.  You can’t tell me that doesn’t make a huge difference in terms of chemistry and players’ comfort level with schemes and gameplans.  It also makes it a hell of a lot easier to replace banged up starters when their backups know the system inside and out.

Here’s another example of Green Bay’s brilliant management strategy:  What happens if the Packers decided—amidst frenzied fan pressure and the demand for instant success—to keep Brett Favre at the height of his Will I/Won’t I waffling three years ago rather than deal him to the Jets?  Aaron Rodgers probably leaves the team at some point, and Favre likely guides the Packers to a few good seasons but no ring.  After all, the Vikings provided Favre a better roster (until this year) than he would have had with the Packers, and he couldn’t guide the men in purple to a Super Bowl (thank God).   And today instead of celebrating a Super Bowl title and an irrefutably bright future with Rodgers, the Packers would be contemplating a very uncertain future with Favre retiring and Rodgers no longer on the roster.

Think this long term planning thing is just a fluke?  That it may have worked for the Packers this year but it’s just a coincidence?  Well, think of it this way: who has dominated the last ten years of professional football?  The New England Patriots.

And how is New England similar to Green Bay?  For starters, neither franchise believes in sacred cows; they believe in smart personnel decisions.  You don’t win by catering to supersized egos that blow apart team chemistry and camaraderie.  For Green Bay that meant choosing Rodgers over Favre at the exact right moment.  For New England it meant trading aging and unhappy future Hall of Famers Richard Seymour and Randy Moss for a load of draft picks.  At the time, parting ways with Favre, Moss, or Seymour seemed crazy, but now the Pack are champions and the Pats are coming off 14-2 year poised to restock their entire roster with fresh draft picks.

Green Bay and New England also have shown that stability in head coaching, scheme, quarterback, and the personality of their players is the key to winning over a sustained period of time.  Tom Brady has been the man in New England for a decade; Green Bay has had two starting quarterbacks over the past 20 years.   Bill Belichick is a mastermind on the defensive end; Mike McCarthy an innovator offensively who has Dom Capers to handle the defense.  Robert Kraft is a tremendous owner for New England, and Scott Pioli—now with the Chiefs—was a tremendous personnel man that built the core of New England’s dynasty teams.  The Packers’ front office has had similar stability with Ron Wolf making personnel decisions during the boon 90s years and Ted Thompson in the new millenium.

The long-term stability approach has proven successful for some other exemplary franchises as well.  The Colts: Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning, Bill Polian, Jim Irsay.  The Eagles: Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb, Jeffrey Lurie.  All of these teams sustained championship-caliber football with elite men in the leadership positions.

Captain Russell: Recipe for Disaster

The NFL is a top-down league: The guys running the show matter.  The Packers, Patriots, Colts, and Eagles get that, and that’s exactly why they win consistently.  All of these franchises have the most skillful people in the most important places.  For more proof, look at the teams that have struggled over the past decade.  The Lions, Raiders, 49ers are some of the prime examples.  What did these teams have at the key positions?  Matt Millen, Al Davis, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, and different coaches seemingly every year.  Constant turnover in coaching, systems, quarterbacks, and philosophies directly leads to losses on the field.

So what we’ve learned this NFL season is something that’s been under our noses for a while now.  An NFL team is a business, and to be successful you need a good business plan with the right people to implement it.  You can’t install that plan if your employees are constantly in flux, you lack leadership, or your morale is low.  And what we learned about the Packers this season is that they know—and have—exactly what it takes to be great in professional football.

--from Adam

(first image from thewoodstockindependent.com and others from zimbio.com)

Super Bowl Game Notes

Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay Packers 31 – Pittsburgh Steelers 25

-It may seem a little silly to break down a game that everyone and their grandmother, excluding the 400 fans kicked out of their seats, watched live a week ago.  But silliness abounds here at the Hill, so hit it!

-It has also taken me a week to come down off my emotional high and clear my head after my Packers just WON THE FUCKING SUPER BOWL!!!

-Let's start with the game-changing play.  With Nick Collins' first quarter house call, teams with a pick six in the Super Bowl move to 11-0, including 6-0 in the last decade and 3-0 in the last three Super Bowls.

-X Factor

-I'll stick to the other singular standout moments.  Game-winning play: "It's time."  The Packers had just a four point lead when Kevin Greene's protégé, Clay Matthews, forced a Rashard Mendenhall fumble on the first play of the fourth quarter.  This led to the decisive Green Bay touchdown; the Packers' 28 points ended up more than the Steelers could muster.

-Then after a Steelers touchdown and two point conversion, the Packers got the ball with seven and a half minutes left in the game, clinging to a three point lead.  Seven minutes is a lot of time to drain off the clock for a team with no running game to speak of, so the Packers were going to have to air it out, drive the ball, and score to put the game out of the surging Steelers' reach for good.  Aaron Rodgers and company were up to the task, manufacturing a Mason Crosby field goal for the dagger.  (Ever the perfectionist, Rodgers was quite disappointed with himself after the game for not scoring a touchdown there.)  The key play on that Packer possession, what we can call the potential game-saving play, was a Rodgers-to-Greg Jennings 31-yard strike on a 3rd and 10 early in the drive.

-Aside from the one touchdown catch, Mike Wallace never beat the Packers deep.  Either Sam Shields and Tramon Williams were in his hip pocket all night or the Steelers didn't have the right gameplan.  I can't tell you how many bubble screens and short crosses the Steelers ran for Wallace, but it seemed like a lot, too much even.  You use the short routes to get your main weapon going, get him into the flow of the game, but at some point you have to let him run.  Wallace's game is speed; he doesn't have the quickness to turn short passes into long gains.  If you would've told me before the game that Wallace would have nine catches and the Packers would win, I'd have punched you in the face.  But that's exactly what did happen as Wallace's 9.9 yard per catch average was not enough to make the Packers pay.

-21 of Green Bay's 31 points were scored off three Steeler turnovers.  Conversely, Green Bay turned the ball over a grand total of 0 times.  Moral of the story: take care of the ball, Pittsburgh.

-Let's also look at Adam's top priority in The Pick and compare quarterbacks.  Rodgers finished with a 61.5% completion percentage, going 24/39 for 304 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions.  His passer rating was 111.5.  On the other side, Ben Roethlisberger went 62.5% on his completions, 25/40 for 263 yards, two touchdowns, two crucial interceptions, and had a 77.4 passer rating.

-This term gets over-used, but this game was a microcosm of the Green Bay season overall.  The Packers have a been a team marred by injuries all year, but they always overcame.  This game was no different as veteran leaders on either side of the ball, both Charles Woodson and Donald Driver missed the entire second half.  That gave Green Bay's deep bench the opportunity to shine as has so often been the case.  Though he had some big drops, Jordy Nelson came through big time when coverage rolled Jennings' way.  Nelson finished with 9 catches–he easily could have had about four more–for 140 yards and a touchdown.  On defense, Woodson was a cornerback in name only.  He played all over the field and made quarterbacks' lives hell in coverage and on the blitz.  That's why I give props to the trio of Jarrett Bush, Pat Lee, who came in when both Woodson and Shields went down for a time, and outside linebacker Frank Zombo.  Bush had one of two first quarter interceptions that led to Packer points.  He also had a second half pressure on Roethlisberger that was eerily Woodson-like.  Though Lee didn't make any standout plays, he never got burned for a big gain, which is all one can ask out of a backup cornerback coming in for two injured starters.  Zombo was in Roethlisberger's face all night and recorded the Packers' only sack.  Plus, I just love saying, "Zombo."

-Okay, can we draft now?

--from Eric