Utterly premature but fun 2012-2013 NFL Power Rankings

1. San Francisco 49ers

The best defense in the NFL is back with some possible depth added in the draft, and a little health at the corner position bolstering that spot.  Aldon Smith should bloom into a superstar alongside Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis.  The real story is the offense, which added Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and high picks AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James to complement incumbent studs Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis.  If Alex Smith can build on his progress from last year, this is the team to beat.

2. Green Bay Packers

Adding the pass rusher Nick Perry and defensive tackle Jerel Worthy should add depth and explosiveness to the front 7 that so struggled last year.  If Perry can emerge as a consistent threat opposite Clay Matthews this defense could go from one of the worst in the league to at least middle of the pack.  Aaron Rodgers is the best player in football.


3.  Houston Texans

Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Ben Tate, and Owen Daniels represent one of the most talented groups of skill players in the league.  Yes the losses of tackle Eric Winston and pass rusher Mario Williams will hurt.  Williams however was aptly replaced by another pass rushing demon in Connor Barwin, and last year's rookie Brooks Reed can bring the heat as well.  Add in first round pick, DE Whitney Mercilus, the relentless JJ Watt, and the terrific Brian Cushing and the Texans still have arguably the best front 7 in football.  Jonathan Joseph also has completely turned around their secondary.


4. New England Patriots

First round picks Chandler Jones and Donta Hightower should really boost the Patriots depth and talent in the front 7.  New England continued to add to the defense all draft long after adding Brandon Lloyd to be the perimeter threat that compliments Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Wes Welker.  If Lloyd can play at a near pro bowl level the offense should be historically good, and I expect the defense to be significantly better.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

The drafting of David DeCastro (especially) and Mike Adams completely revamp what was a big weakness into a potential strength.  I believe DeCastro will be a good starter right away in the league, and Adams has the size to play right tackle immediately without getting pushed around.  Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emanuelle Sanders and Heath Miller provide as good a set of targets as Ben Roethlisberger could ask for.  Rashard Mendenhall may not be back to begin the season, but they should survive without him and maybe he returns mid-season for a boost.  The defense is undeniably old, but still has great players, and youngsters Cameron Heyward, Lawrence Timmons, Lamar Woodley, and Ziggy Hood provide a solid foundation of youth.

6. Detroit Lions

Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson alone are enough to put this team in the top ten.  Add in star tight end Brandon Pettigrew, explosive Jhavid Best, and the return of last year's second round bruising running back Mikel LeShoure and this offense should be ready to explode.  Detroit also added impressive and polished tackle Riley Reiff in the first round, who as most Iowa lineman should be ready to play from day one.  In the second round receiver Ryan Broyles is a nice slot complement to Megatron.  He's quick, smart and productive.  after the first two rounds the Lions went exclusively defense which was smart.  If they can find one starter and another solid contributor out of those picks the defense should be improved.

7. Philadelphia Eagles

Mike Vick staying healthy is obviously the huge asterisk with this ranking.  Talent is all over this offense with LeSean McCoy turning into a star, DeSean Jackson having unparalleled explosiveness, and Jeremy Maclin blossoming into a star.  Demetrius Bell will be adequate at left tackle but losing Jason Peters really hurts.  Most of all, Philly filled the atrocious middle of their defense with solid signee Demeco Ryan, draftee Fletcher Cox (1st round) and second round linebacker Mychal Kendricks.  With Trent Cole and Jason Babin rushing the passer, and talent in the secondary, the Eagles could be a dominant defense if the new pieces fit.

8. Chicago Bears

The Bears were an excellent team until Matt Forte and Jay Cutler went down with injuries.  With those two back in the fold and finally a premier receiver in Brandon Marshall the Bear's offense could really turn into a threat.  Rookie Shea McClellin should add pas rush, and if Alshon Jeffrey can live up to his potential he was a steal in the second round.

9.  Cincinatti Bengals

With Leon Hall coming back from injury, and being joined by the 17th overall pick Dre Kirkpatrick the secondary should be much improved from last year.  Cincy also got plug and play guard Kevin Zeitler who should help solidify the line for young Andy Dalton.  DT Devon Still should join a talented defensive line rotation, and Mohamed Sanu had a 1-2 round grade from a lot of scouts.  AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, and Sanu make up a promising young trio for Dalton.  I think the Ravens are aging, and take a step back with the achilles injury to Terrell Suggs and the Bengals slide in.

10. Dallas Cowboys

They fool me every year, but I think this team has the talent to win 10-11 games.  Romo is a very good quarterback.  Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten are star caliber targets in the passing game.  DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones are a nice running back duo.  The offensive line is in better shape with the emergence of Tyron Smith at tackle last year.  Morris Claiborne was a huge pickup for Dallas, they now have a legitimate cover corner who will surely have his ups and downs in his rookie season but should also develop into a star.  With Claiborne solidifying the secondary, and the front 7 still boasting Jay Ratliff and Demarcus Ware, the Boys could field a better defense than most people think.



11. Kansas City Chiefs

Jamal Charles, Eric Berry, and Tony Moeaki all missed the entire season last year, and will all be back this year.  Those are three star level players coming back into the fold.  Matt Cassel is not a great player, but handing of to Charles and Peyton Hillis while throwing to Dwayne Bowe, Moeaki, and last year's first rounder Jonathan Baldwin should make him look more than competent.  The signing of all-pro right tackle Eric Winston is another huge move.  Defensively Tamba Hali, Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry are pro-bowl caliber and if Dontari Poe pans out this defense could be special.


12. San Diego Chargers

The loss of Vincent Jackson undoubtedly hurts, but Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates are still in the fold, and Phillip Rivers should bounce back to have his usual terrific season.  Ryan Matthews is turning into a stud back as well.  The defense will be helped tremendously by top pick Melvin Ingram who was drafted way too low.  They then snatched Kendell Reyes, a defensive tackle a lot of people had in the top 25 picks, but he slid to the second round.

13. New York Giants

You might think I'm being unfair simply because I hate the freaking Giants, but in all honesty I think they are due for a slide.  They scraped to 9-7 last year and then got hot but this team has holes.  Their linebacking group is unathletic and their secondary doesn't scare anyone.  Jason Pierre-Paul is a superstar, and Eli Manning is one dangerous man.  Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are dynamic at receiver and Ahmad Bradshaw should do well splitting carries with talented rookie David Wilson.  Still, lots of holes on this team and I won't be surprised if they miss the playoffs.

14. New Orleans Saints

I know they have talent all over the offense but they lost all pro guard Carl Nicks and quality receiver Robert Meachem, not to mention Jonathan Vilma for the year.  And oh yeah Sean Payton is suspended for the year as well.  Too much turmoil and turnover for this team to be a title contender again.



15. Baltimore Ravens

This seems like a drastic fall, but I think every year a team finally reaches the point where it gets too old.  I could be way off, but Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are both on their last legs, and Terrell Suggs won't even play this year.  The secondary is still a little green at corner as well.  The offense has never been inspiring and Ray Rice is now holding out.  Anquan Boldin is also really slowing down.  This is a team in transition and Joe Flacco is not good enough to put this team on his back.


16. Atlanta Falcons

I just don't believe in the Atlanta defense.  I also think that Michael Turner is due to slow down, and the offensive line can be shaky at times.  Matt Ryan has plateaued, though Julio Jones and Roddy White make this team dangerous.

17. Denver Broncos

I just don't know what Peyton Manning will be, but even if he's back to his old tricks he doesn't have many weapons on this offense, and the defense struggled through many games last year.  The Broncos failed to give Manning to much help in this year's draft.

18. Carolina Panthers

If Cam Newton can take another step in his progression he can be one of the very best players in the league and win games by himself.  Steve Smith showed he still has a lot of prime left, and the duo of Jon Stewart and Deangelo Williams is still very good in the backfield.  The defense was the issue last year, but the return of star linebacker Jon Beason who will be flanked by 9th overall pick Luke Kuechly should improve this defense dramatically.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Josh Freeman was a rising super-star two years ago, and had an off year last season like the whole Bucs team.  Enter pro-bowl level wide receiver Vincent Jackson, and all-pro guard Carl Nicks and Freeman will have plenty of help to get back to his previous level of play.  Rookie running back Doug Martin should provide a strong 1-2 punch with LeGarette Blount in the backfield.  This offense really has some talent now and could take off.  Defensively this team just needs to grow- Gerald McCoy, Adrian Clayborn, Brian Price, and Da'Quan Bowers are all 2nd and 3rd year players with talent that has the potential to blossom into a strong unit.  Safety first round pick Mark Barron is regarded as an immediate impact player, and Lavonte David was a steal in the second round at linebacker.

20. St. Louis Rams

They were awful last year, but when healthy Sam Bradford is the best passer in the NFC West.  Stephen Jackson is still an elite back.  They also added athletic stud Brian Quick at receiver with the top pick in the second round, not to mention they bolstered their defense with two other second round picks.  Scat-back Isaiah Pead and receiver Chris Givens could also be fast contributors on offense.  Jeff Fisher will make this a smart fundamental team that has an incredibly bright future.

21.  New York Jets

The Jets just aren't very good.  Their offensive line is pretty good, their quarterback is average, they don't have a feature running back, and their best receiver is a complete headcase (Santonio Holmes). Their top two picks Quinton Coples (pass rusher) and Stephen Hill (WR) are two of the most physically gifted players in the draft, but who knows how that will translate to the field and the Jets unusual culture.

22. Buffalo Bills

Hard team to read here.  They lost Demetrius Bell who was an important part of their offensive line, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is decent at managing the game but lacks any of the elite physical skills you would want in your quarterback.  Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller, and Stevie Johnson are a nice trio of skill players, but they could use more talent on the perimeter.  Stephen Gilmore was a great pick at #10, he will be a very good player just like last year's top pick Marcel Dareus.  The Bills are slowly building an impressive core on defense.  Adding super-star pass rusher Mario Williams doesn't hurt either.  Give the Bills 1-2 more good drafts and they could be competing for the playoffs.

23.  Washington Redskins

I think RG3 will be able to make plays right away and Pierre Garcon, Josh Morgan, and Chris Cooley give him some viable targets.  The defense has promise with edge rushers Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan forming a frightening duo.

24.  Seattle Seahawks

If Matt Flynn can prove to be a good NFL starter this ranking could go up substantially.  Marshawn Lynch is a very good running back, and the offensive line is young and improving.  Seattle had a strange draft but they do have a lot of defensive talent.

25. Cleveland Browns

I don't really like the pick of Brandon Weeden, but I know Trent Richardson can play and make a big impact immediately.  I think his running will keep the Browns close in a lot of games.

26.  Minnesota Vikings

Matt Kalil solves the left tackle issues, and hopefully Adrian Peterson will be back near the beginning of next year.  Percy Harvin and newly signed Jerome Simpson represent a talented if temperamental receiving duo and the tight end combo of Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson could be Christian Ponder's best friend.  If Ponder has what it takes, this team could turn around fast.  Getting Harrison Smith (safety Notre Dame) was a really important pick for this defense.

27.  Arizona Cardinals

Kevin Kolb, you are out of excuses.  Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are very nice targets to throw to.

28. Indianapolis Colts

I think Andrew Luck will be good right away.  Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener should provide nice targets to throw to.

29. Tennessee Titans

Maybe this is way too low but I just don't see a quarterback, a great defense, or skill players that really scare me unless Chris Johnson can regain his old form.

30.  Jacksonville Jaguars

The defense has some young talent, and Maurice Jones Drew, Marcedes Lewis  and Justin Blackmon surround Blaine Gabbert with some really nice talent.

31. Oakland Raiders

Sorry Raider fans, Carson Palmer is done, you don't have a good offensive line, the receivers are raw and the defense is unspectacular.

32.  Miami Dolphins

The Ryan Tannehill-Reggie Bush combo doesn't really scare anyone.

Week 11 Overview + Power Poll #6

The Producers

There are only two elite teams in the NFL: the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers.  Sure, questions linger about the Packers’ defense and the Niners’ ability to play in a shootout, but the mark of an elite team is consistency and being able to dictate the style of play they want.  The reason the Packer defense hasn’t had to have a big showing and the Niner offense hasn’t had to explode is because both teams are in control of every game they play.

The Other Guys

There’s a sub-category of teams right below San Fran and Green Bay that alternately tantalize us and disappoint us from week to week:

• The Falcons just haven’t put all their talent together yet.
• The Saints still seem to be missing that bit of magic from their Super Bowl year.
• The Lions are boom-or-bust.  They have wild comebacks and shootouts, but they ultimately lack consistency running the ball and stopping the run.
• The Ravens look great at times but have lost to the Seahawks, Jaguars, and Titans.
• The Steelers have lost twice to the Ravens.
• The Giants were starting to put things together then lost two straight.
• Conversely, the Cowboys seem to finally be putting all their talent to good use, but it still feels like the wheels can come off at any moment.
• The Bears looked to be the one team ready to perhaps join the Niners and Pack, and then Jay Cutler goes down for the year.
• The Patriots’ fatal flaw is their defense, and they also lack vertical explosion on offense.

Undeclared

Losing by a combined 14 points to the Steelers and Ravens doesn’t tell me the Bengals aren’t a playoff-level team.  It tells me they lost two close divisional games against strong opponents.  Judge dem Bengals only after they get another shot at both.

Wedding Crashers

The Bills might be the worst 5-5 team in history, and the Dolphins might be the best 3-7 team in history.  The wheels have really fallen off in Buffalo.

Stranger Than Fiction

Tim Tebow might be winning games, but this won’t last.  It’s kind of fun to watch, but eventually, having a fullback playing quarterback, the Broncos will get exposed.

Land of the Lost

It’s more of an indictment of Mark Sanchez and the Jets’ offense than it is of their defense that they lost to Tebow and the Broncos.  New York only gave up 17 points.  It’s time for the Sanchize to start playing like a fifth overall pick three years into his career.

Everything Must Go

I have no idea who is going to win the AFC West.  The Chargers look terrible, the Broncos are playing college football, the Chiefs just lost their starting quarterback for the year, and the Raiders are starting Carson Palmer, who was on the couch a few weeks ago.

Bewitched

What happened to Sam Bradford?  I know he’s been dinged up and is in a new offense, but he’s been horrible.

Eastbound & Down

I think it’s funny that everyone was shocked that the Eagles fell to 3-6 because of how good they were supposed to be, and then the same people consider it a stunner when they beat the division rival Giants by one touchdown.

Week 11 Power Poll

1. Green Bay Packers (10-0)

Who else could be in this spot?

How good is their defense?  Good enough to have the Packers undefeated. 

2. San Francisco 49ers (9-1)

They absolutely dominated the Cardinals, holding the ball for 44 of 60 minutes.  And if not for three missed field goals, they would have won this game even more handily.

3. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)

This team fluctuates from week-to-week, but beating a good Cincy team without Ray Lewis speaks highly.  A huge showdown between the Harbaugh brothers (and the second and third ranked teams on my list, mind you) lingers on Thanksgiving. 

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)

A good time for a bye week with Ben Roethlisberger dinged up, the Steelers should be fresh for the stretch and should make a run at the one seed in the AFC with a soft remaining schedule outside.  The only true test is a road tilt at San Francisco.

5. New Orleans Saints (7-3)

I’d like to put the Texans or Bears here, but with their starting quarterbacks both gone for the year they barely belong in the top-12.  The Saints are flawed, but I guarantee they scare the wits out of every team they play. 

6. Dallas Cowboys (6-4)

This team has so many weapons; they’re kind of like a Ferrari that just needs an oil change.  If they can get everyone healthy, Miles Austin particularly, and on the same page, then they can beat anyone. 

7. New England Patriots (7-3)

The defense is continually a problem, but I feel like come the winter months of the season they will be a tough out, especially if they get some home playoff games. 

8. Detroit Lions (7-3)

With Ndamukong Suh, Calvin Johnson, and Matthew Stafford, they are definitely in the running for most fun team to watch, but they lack consistency.  They seem to love playing in shootouts, which might make them an upset threat against Green Bay, but ultimately I think this is a young team still finding its rhythm.

9. New York Giants (6-4)

They’re ahead of the Falcons and Raiders for essentially one reason: Eli Manning is better than Matt Ryan or Carson Palmer.  Once the Giants get back to full health they are another team that can beat anybody on a given Sunday.

10. Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

I refuse to believe this team is worse than the Oakland Raiders.  They haven’t shown a whole lot to fall in love with, but they’ve navigated their way to a winning record and are in the thick of playoff contention.

11. Oakland Raiders (6-4)

The way they beat the Vikings is the model this team needs to follow on offense.  Pound the ball with Michael Bush and Darren McFadden when he gets healthy, and keep Carson Palmer around 25 throws per game.  Let Palmer take his deep shots, especially off play-action, and control both lines of scrimmage. 

12. Houston Texans (7-3)

I place them over the Bears because I honestly think Matt Leinart might be a little more ready than Caleb Hanie to take over NFL starting quarterback duties.  It’s really fortunate that Houston had a bye week for Leinart to get reps and get prepared and possibly bring Andre Johnson back into the fold.  It’s also nice they’ll face the hapless Jaguars coming up.  Having Arian Foster and Ben Tate and the #1-ranked defense to fall back on doesn’t hurt either.

--from @AdamHocking

NFL Power Poll #5

1. Green Bay Packers (8-0)

It's an incredible feat to reach the halfway point of the season without a loss.  While the Green Bay defense still hasn't dug its heels in, as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy the Packers will keep rolling.  The Green Bay defense has big-time potential, but if they keep forcing turnovers they can give up yards and points.  As long as Rodgers has one more possession than the opponent, I'll take the Packers in any game.  They travel to the Lions and Giants coming up, but if they can get through that stretch unscathed, they have a legitimate shot at 16-0.  

2. San Francisco 49ers (7-1)

Everyone is shocked that the Niners are on pace to win 14 games, and with good reason. This team was a mess last year.

Maybe we could have seen this coming, at least in some respects.  Last year every prognosticator pegged San Fran as the most talented team in its division by far, and they were, but the Mike Singletary regime stamped out all that potential and replaced it with frustration and disorganization.  Now the 49ers have an organized, detailed, and confident coaching staff that has maxed out the team’s talent.  If the Red and Gold can beat the Giants at home this coming week, they have a tremendous chance at getting a first round bye in the playoffs.  

3. Baltimore Ravens (6-2)

Joe Flacco finally did what Ben Roethlisberger usually does, make the big throw to win the game.  For some reason though I get the feeling Baltimore will see Pittsburgh again in the playoffs, and I can't help but feel Roethlisberger  won't let the same team beat him three times in one season.  Still, after a huge win for Baltimore, at this point they hold the tenuous title of best team in the AFC.  

4. New York Giants (6-2)

The Patriots aren't what they once were, but it still speaks volumes about the Giants and Eli Manning to be able to go into Foxborough with a host of injuries and emerge victorious.  

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

I can't punish this team too much for losing essentially as time ran out to their arch-rival, a very good Ravens team.  

6. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)

Andy Dalton needs to be in the conversation for Rookie of the Year.  I know Cam Newton has been spectacular and fun to watch, but Dalton has his Bengals leading the AFC north and on pace for a 12-win season.  

7. Detroit Lions (6-2)

They aren't going to magically find a running game, and that is going to be a problem moving into the cold weather months of the season.  Still, the defensive line packs a wallop, and Matthew Stafford-to-Calvin Johnson is going to be one of the premiere connections in the league for years.  

8. Houston Texans (6-3)

The Texans defense is fifth in the league in points allowed.  If they keep that up, they can win any game.  And, if the defense continues its great work once Andre Johnson returns, we could be looking at a Super Bowl candidate.  

9. Chicago Bears (5-3)

The Bears probably ended the Eagles’ playoff campaign on Monday night, and they did it in a fashion that they must continue to implement: a heavy dose of Matt Forte.  Forte is on pace for 1,600 rushing yards, 80 receptions, and 850 yards receiving.  

10. New Orleans Saints (6-3)

I don't trust the Saints because of their defense and the amount of turnovers they commit, but their upcoming stretch of games (at Atlanta, home against the Giants and Lions) will surely show whether or not they are a legit contender in the NFC.  

11. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)

Julio Jones made a few plays last week that showed exactly why the Falcons gave up a king's ransom in order to draft him.  If Matt Ryan can pick up his level of play and the running game continues to pound, the Falcons are one the most dangerous teams in the league.  

12. New England Patriots (5-3)

This could be premature, but it's starting to feel like the end of a great run in New England.  With the Colts at 0-9 and the Patriots appear to be on the way down, the guard is changing in the AFC.

--from @AdamHocking

NFL Power Poll #4

1. Green Bay Packers (7-0)

The defending champs get the bye at a perfect time.

If it's possible to quietly be the best team in football, even as last year's Super Bowl winner, that's what the Packers are.  I think it's because there is so much mediocrity around the league that the Packers are a given as the best team.  Hopefully over the bye week the defense had a little powwow, because if that side of the ball can get back to last year's level of play, we will hear 16-0 talk pretty soon.

2. San Francisco 49ers (6-1)

Being sixth in rushing offense and first in rushing defense is a pretty good formula for winning football.  The passing game is far from spectacular, but it's efficient and used when necessary.  Alex Smith is having his best year ever simply because he is not turning the ball over, but if this team really wants to talk about winning it all, he has to be able to create more plays down the field.  If he steps up, the weapons are there.

Frank Gore has been a work horse, plowing for over 125 yards in 4-straight games.

Offensively, the Niners are getting creative.  They threw first down passes to left tackle Joe Staley and nose guard Isaac Sopoaga in last week's game.  Defensively, the linebacking group of Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks, and Parys Haralson might be the league's best.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

Winners of four straight games, the defending AFC champs are rolling.  They got a huge win last week against New England, and the defense is again playing at an elite level as Ben Roethlisberger has one of the better stretches of his career.  Still, I think this team is vulnerable for speedy teams like the Packers that can spread them out.

4. Detroit Lions (6-2)

I think the Lions were trying to prove in one game that Tim Tebow isn't fit for this league.  He's been sacked 14 times in two games.  The Lions, meanwhile, are on pace for twelve wins this season, which would be an incredible feat for the long suffering franchise.  Matthew Stafford has 19 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions this year and is developing into a Pro Bowl player in his third season.

5. Buffalo Bills (5-2)

This team has lost twice this year by a combined six points.  They play as a unit, can score on anybody, and have very good balance on offense.  Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven to be more than a game manager this year, and the defense, while still a work in progress, at least creates turnovers.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)

It's time to pay my respects to a team I've mostly ignored thus far.  The defense is truly one of the best in the league, and Andy Dalton has already figured out how to play like a game-managing veteran seven games into his career.  AJ Green is having a monster rookie year as well with 33 catches, 516 yards, and 5 touchdowns.  Dalton-to-Green could be a great combination for years to come.

Side Note: Who would have thought it conceivable to start the year that the Bengals, Lions, 49ers, and Bills could be considered by anybody to be elite NFL teams?  

7. New England Patriots (5-2)

Some of the intimidation factor is wearing off of these Patriots.  It's actually been a while since this team won a Super Bowl, and the Bill Belichick-led defense no longer scares any one.  Tom Brady has to be perfect if this team wants to win another title.

8. Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

This is a Super Bowl team if Joe Flacco plays better.  It's that simple.  They have the weapons, the coaching, and the defense.  All they need is for their signal caller to put a nice bow around all of it and this team can beat anyone.  Whether or not Flacco is able to do that is yet to be seen, but I think he can turn things around.

9. New York Giants (5-2)

They are dinged up at running back with Ahmad Bradshaw nursing a broken foot and Brandon Jacobs perhaps just breaking down.  On the flip side, Eli Manning has been great this year, notching a 102 passer rating.  If they can reassemble their ground attack, this team can challenge anybody because of a tremendous pass rush.

10. Houston Texans (5-3)

Andre Johnson still might not be back, but as long as Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Ben Tate, and an improved defense (fifth against the pass, sixth against the run) keep rolling, this is the team to beat in the AFC South.

11. New Orleans Saints (5-3)

That was a really bad loss at St. Louis, just a game the Saints gave away.  The formula used to be for the defense to cause turnovers and let Drew Brees be perfect.  Brees is still great, but the last couple years he has thrown too many interceptions.  He's on pace to throw 20 this year.

12. Atlanta Falcons (4-3) 

The Falcons had a bye week to get some bugs worked out and now get the Colts at home.  So basically, two straight bye weeks.  They can get on a little roll here and perhaps start to look like the team we thought would challenge for the Super Bowl.

--from @AdamHocking