#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers
Indiana doesn’t even have what you would call a "puncher's chance" in this series. The Pacers don’t do anything exceedingly well, and they don’t have major star power to carry them through tough stretches. A lack of experience is the only knock on the Bulls, but at least they made the playoffs last year, and new Bull Carlos Boozer brings a fair share of postseason familiarity as well. Most of Indiana’s roster has never even appeared in a playoff game. While the Pacers are a young and athletic team with some decent talent—Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, Darren Collison—those players aren’t household names for a reason. I look for Chicago to clamp down defensively and make quick work of the over-matched Pacers.
Prediction: Bulls in 4
#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers and Heat play a similar brand of basketball: up-tempo, transition-oriented, lots of athletes on the floor. You can look at those similarities in one of two ways. Playing a similar style means either the 76ers will matchup well against Miami, or it will play right into the Heat’s hands. I tend to think that when two teams play the same style, the better team is obviously more adept at that particular style. The Heat are clearly more talented than the 76ers, and letting LeBron James and Dwyane Wade out in transition is deadly for any opponent. The 76ers are in a conundrum because they won’t be able to score in a half-court game, and if they try to speed the pace up, Miami might run them off the floor. Philly just doesn’t have the type of personnel that can give the Heat problems. Elton Brand is a decent low post scorer, but at only 6’8” and getting on in years, he won’t be too much of a handful for Chris Bosh, Joel Anthony, or Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Outside of Brand, the 76ers have virtually no one capable of punishing the Heat where they’re weak, in the post. Andre Iguodala is a great athlete, but he doesn’t have a jumper or a mid-range game. Ditto for Thaddeus Young. I think Philly might squeak one game out in this series because they will have the athletes to guard James and Wade. Ultimately though, they just won’t have enough scoring punch to keep up with the James gang.
Prediction: Heat in 5
#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks
This is definitely the East’s most intriguing first round matchup, if only for the cumulative star power of both teams. Boston’s newfound weakness in the post has been well documented, but the Knicks don’t really have the personnel to exploit it. Sure Amare Stoudemire is a great player, but he’s a finesse guy who doesn’t rebound or defend particularly well. Outside of Stoudemire, the Knicks have been throwing out Shelden Williams, Shawne Williams, and Ronnie Turiaf to fill the pivot positions. Combined those three players average just 14 points and 10 rebounds per game. Even Boston will be able to pound this team in the paint. Chauncey Billups will make his share of big shots, but he won’t be able to defend the much quicker Rajon Rondo. Carmelo Anthony will score, but Boston will make him take a lot of shots to get his points. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce will more than offset the production of Anthony, Kevin Garnett should be able to check Stoudemire, and Rondo will outduel Billups. Basically, the big four of Boston will at least match the Knicks' big three, and the Celtics' superior depth will take care of the rest. New York has talent to be sure and could rob a game or two from Boston, but they just aren’t a complete enough team to win this series.
Prediction: Celtics in 6
#4 Orlando Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks
I don’t have a whole lot of love for either one of these teams, but Orlando should be favored in this matchup. The Hawks have five good players—Joe Johnson, Al Horford, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, and Marvin Williams—but not a single great one. Johnson is a star in name only; he wasn’t able to lead this Hawks squad to anything more than mediocrity all year. While Horford is solid, he is going to be completely overmatched by Dwight Howard. Howard will be the best player in this series by a mile, and his teammates are good enough to provide ample scoring support. Horford and Josh Smith won’t be able to score inside, meaning Atlanta will have to rely increasingly on the three point shot. Howard will control the boards and challenge every shot in the paint. The Hawks also will suffer because they have essentially zero home court advantage. This year it wasn’t uncommon for fans of the Lakers, Celtics, Magic or Heat to outnumber Hawks fans in Atlanta’s arena. The Hawks may steal a game or two if Howard gets in foul trouble or if they get hot from the three point line. In the end though, Howard is the best player in this series, and that will be the difference.
Prediction: Magic in 6
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs #8 Memphis Grizzlies
Losing All Star Rudy Gay for the season was the death blow for any big dreams the Grizzlies had. Gay and Zach Randolph made for a dynamic forward duo that could score with anyone. Now Randolph will have to shoulder most of the load, as the Grizzlies next highest scorer is point guard Mike Conley, who nets just 14 points per game. OJ Mayo is a confounding player; he averaged 18 points per game through his first two seasons, but only 11 this year. He needs to step up if Memphis wants to do anything. The Spurs rested their veterans a ton down the stretch and still secured the number one seed out West. They might not be as sharp as they would like, but they’ll be healthy and can play their way into a rhythm against the inferior Grizzlies. Tim Duncan will see more minutes in the playoffs, although Marc Gasol will be a big body to compete with. Tony Parker easily wins the point guard matchup against Conley. Manu Ginobli has moved from his familiar sixth man role in previous years to the starting lineup this season and excelled. He’s always big come playoff time, though his sprained elbow has him listed as doubtful for Game One. He should be back at least by Game Three, and playing at home for the first two contests of the series the Spurs should be fine without him. San Antonio has five guys that score in double figures—Duncan, Parker, Ginoblie, Richard Jefferson, and George Hill—and five more guys that play a significant role—DeJaun Blair, Tiago Splitter, Gary Neal, Matt Bonner, and Antonio McDyess. The Grizzlies have similar depth but not nearly as much talent or experience. Finally, Spurs' coach, Gregg Popovich, is as good as it gets in the NBA. I can’t see the newbie Grizzlies taking even one game from the finely tuned Spurs.
Prediction: Spurs in 4
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets
As a Laker fan, this was exactly the matchup I was hoping for in the first round. Even if Andrew Bynum needed some extra rest, the Lakers could cruise through this series without him. The Hornets' second best player, David West, recently went down for the year with an ACL tear. West was their leading scorer, now Chris Paul, who averaged just 16 points per game during the year, takes that mantle. Usually really talented point guards give the Lakers fits, but Paul hasn’t been fully healthy all year, and even if he goes crazy, he won’t have enough help to make this a series. After Paul, the Hornets don’t have any one that scores more than 12 points per game. That’s not going to get it done against the potent Lake Show. Also, size is going to be a huge factor in this series. The 6’9” Carl Landry and Emeka Okafor at 6’10” are the Hornets' starting big men. They will be completely over-matched by the Lakers' pair of 7-footers in Pau Gasol and Bynum. Throw in the versatile 6’10” Lamar Odom, and LA should absolutely dominate the paint. We saw all year that the Lakers were the best team in the league if they were focused. They’ll be focused for the playoffs and I think they’ll steamroll New Orleans. And after all this I still haven't mentioned that the Lakers happen to have a guy named Kobe Bryant.
Prediction: Lakers in 4
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trailblazers
All week I’ve been itching to see if this matchup would occur, and it has. So many prognosticators have said that Portland has a really good shot to upset Dallas, and I agree. Dallas and Portland split their four meetings during the year, however Dallas won twice when they had Caron Butler and the Blazers didn’t have newly acquired Gerald Wallace. Since Butler went down and Wallace came aboard for Portland, the Blazers have beaten Dallas twice. The thing that is so drastically different about the playoffs is that over the course of a seven-game series, teams are able to make adjustments and take away their opponents’ biggest strengths. Teams have time to focus on just one opponent and really hone in on how to best approach that matchup. Dallas has always thrived in the regular season because in one-game situations; they are good enough to outscore a lot of teams. All this is a way of saying I think Portland has the personnel to really limit Dirk Nowitzki over the course of a series. Having multiple long and athletic players to throw at Dirk is always important, and that’s exactly what the Blazers have. Wallace, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Marcus Camby all bring different elements to the table, and all are capable of guarding Nowitzki. They also have a great coach in Nate McMillan, who will have a sound gameplan in place. If Nowitzki is limited or has to work a ton to get his points, Dallas will struggle. The Mavs second leading scorer is aging sixth man Jason Terry, who is a streak shooter you can’t always rely on. Beyond Terry and Dirk, ancient Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, and Peja Stojakovic join youngsters Rodrigue Beaubois and JJ Barea as the Mavs' main supporting players. All those role players are either too limited by age or inexperience to be big factors in this series. Another way of saying that is, Dirk Nowitzki might be the best player in this series, but Portland has the next three or four best players in LaMarcus Aldridge, Gerald Wallace, Wes Matthews, and Andre Miller. Portland is much more athletic than Dallas on the wings with Wallace, Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and Rudy Fernandez matching up against Marion, Stojakovic and DeShawn Stevenson. Inside, Aldridge, Wallace, and Camby will battle Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler, and Brendan Haywood to about an even draw. Miller is certainly an old dog in this game, but he’ll be matched up with an even grayer beard in Kidd and should win that matchup all series. Ultimately the superior athleticism, depth, and favorable matchups lead to Portland's upset of the playoff soft Mavericks.
Prediction: Trail Blazers in 6
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Denver Nuggets
There’s no question that Denver became a better team after trading Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups. The Nuggets are now deep, young, athletic, and unselfish. Looking at the matchups in this series is really interesting. Kendrick Perkins and Nene both are big-bodied players who aren’t afraid to bang in the paint and should have a great battle all series. Perkins, Serge Ibaka, Nazr Mohammed, and Nick Collison will have their hands full battling Nene, Al Harrington, Danilo Gallinari, Kenyon Martin, and Chris Andersen in the post. Denver also has an assortment of athletic and long wing players to throw at Kevin Durant. Wilson Chandler, JR Smith, Gallinari, and Aaron Afflalo, if healthy, are all capable of checking Durant for stretches, though I would think Chandler will see the most time on him. Russell Westbrook is a flatout star at point guard, but perhaps no team has as much of a fighting chance to slow him down as Denver. Between Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton, the Nuggets have a ton of speed at point guard to defend Westbrook and make him work when Denver has the ball. The Nuggets are the deeper team in this series as they can play up to ten players without much of a drop off. The Thunder really only have eight main rotation guys, nine if you include Collison. I love what the Nuggets have done this year, and I really enjoy the way they play. In the end, though, I can’t pick against the Thunder because they have the two best players in the series—Westbrook and Durant. The playoffs usually come down to who executes better in the half-court, and I give a slight edge there to OKC.
Prediction: Thunder in 7
--from Adam
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