NBA Fantasy Draft Ranking

With the All Star Game not too far in our rearview mirrors, I wanted to take a look at the franchise players in the NBA, to rank the players that you would want to build a team around with the central goal of winning championships.

Age of course will be a factor in this discussion.  For example, Kobe Bryant will rank lower on the list not because he isn’t still great but because his window of greatness is smaller than, say, Chris Paul’s.  Moving down the list, preference will continually be given to younger guys, so if you’re ancient, you better be damn good.  When thinking about team building, you have to make decisions like: Is twelve years of Brook Lopez going to be better for my team than three more years of Tim Duncan?  Clearly it’s inexact, but it’s meant to engender conversation, debate, and it was really a fun list to make.

Cream of the Crop: With a couple of nice pieces around just one of the top ten guys, you’re at least a playoff team.  Give them a really nice supporting cast and you bring home a ring.  These ten players are young enough to have at least 5-7 prime playing years left.

1. Kevin Durant

Plenty argue LeBron James should be in this spot.  That’s fine, but here’s how I defend Durant’s placement.  First, and this is rather minimal but still significant enough to be mentioned, Durant is four years younger than James.  The real reason I rank him higher though is because Durant is the easier player to build around.  With James, you absolutely must have the correct pieces in place.  James can’t spot up and shoot, he can’t post up, and he has to be the main facilitator on your team to be fully effective.  In essence, surrounded by a pile of crap in Cleveland, James reached his highest potential—averaging 30, 8, and 8 for an entire season—because he got to dominate the ball, make all the decisions, and shoot when he felt like it.  Now you see James in Miami where he too often gives the ball to Dwyane Wade and then just stands around like, “This is your possession. I’ll take over next time.”  James, despite having the repertoire of a Swiss army knife, is limited in his half court offensive arsenal and thus demands a certain type of roster around him.  He needs spot up shooters, no-talent rebounders (look at Anderson Varejao), and a true back to the basket post up man.  Because James can’t shoot a consistent jumper and can’t own his man on the block, his natural size and athleticism advantages only really help him in transition and dribble drive situations, which typically do not occur much against good teams in the playoffs.

On the other hand, Durant has no need to dominate the ball.  He is a scorer, plain and simple.  He is the focal point of your offensive game plan, not as a facilitator, but as the guy who makes buckets.  And the best part is, he doesn’t need the ball at all times; give it to him anywhere on the court and he’s effective.  He can catch and shoot, post up, curl off screens, use dribble isolation, and or get to the foul line whenever he feels like it as evidenced by taking the most free throw attempts in NBA history last year.  And oh yeah, he makes about 90% from the stripe, 50% from the field, and 40% from downtown.  Put anybody around Durant and you’ll still get 30 points and 7 rebounds from him in a high percentage fashion all while getting your opponent in foul trouble.  You also won’t incur all the hatred as a team, which James brings with him because of his antics and general jackassery (dancing before games, tweeting nasty things about the Cavs, hour-long ESPN specials, etc.)

Durant is the Duncan of this generation: coolly efficient, smart, focused solely on winning, and the perfect player to build around.  Durant’s game works against any team, whereas we’ve seen James shut down by a defensive-minded unit like Boston.

2. LeBron James

James is a bit like Wilt Chamberlain in that he is weighted down by insane expectations despite putting up ridiculous numbers, and I’m not sure James will ever escape that.  Even though James has been nothing short of incredible with Hall of Fame numbers and leading bad Cleveland teams to great seasons, it’s still possible that he’s falling short of the hype because by nature, hype has no limits.  People can dream up anything in the world of expectations, “Oh man, this James kid is so good.  He’s the next Jordan.  He’s gonna be better than Kobe.  He’s gonna win six rings.”  Fair or not, that’s what people thought when he came into the league, so the fact that James has zero titles after eight years in the NBA starts to weigh on him.  I think that explains his move to Miami.  He thought, “I better get a move on this championship thing or I won’t even be in the same breath as Kobe or MJ.  I might have to settle for Steve Nash territory.”  But what James didn’t understand was that going to Miami (A) wasn’t really a good fit for his skill set, (B) was only going to drive up expectations, yet at the same time diminish any accomplishments he did achieve because of his superstar teammates, and (C) make every road game tougher because everybody now hates the Heat.

James is also a bit like Scottie Pippen or Grant Hill in that he’s a great, all-around player that can pass, handle the ball, see the floor, defend, and jump out of the gym, but he doesn’t have that go-to-move on offense or the killer instinct to say, “I’m the guy on this team.  I take the last shot and I don’t give a damn if make it or miss it because I’m the man.”  The closest we ever saw James to being the take-charge guy he needs to be was in the 2005 playoffs against the Pistons when he scored 20 some straight points and willed his team to victory, but we haven’t seen it since.  James is a great player, but it’s the mental makeup that decides championships, and I’m not sure he has it.  James cares too much about what other people think.  In part, James was actually asking, “What should I do guys?  What do you want from me?”  Michael Jordan and Bryant didn’t give a damn what anyone thought, they didn’t want to be likeable, they didn’t want friends.  They wanted rings.

Remember that Pippen led the Bulls, sans-Jordan, to a 55-win season but couldn’t beat Patrick Ewing’s Knicks in the playoffs.  That’s what a great all-around player with no killer instinct and no true scorer’s mentality will get you: a great regular season, but no results come tournament time.  The regular season is a long haul where teams forget about defense and effort all together.  But in the playoffs it’s a new story, everything must be earned.  Every defense amps it up.  That’s why a player needs the midrange game and the post game, because drives to the bucket either won’t happen or will get you decapitated.

James is also a bit like Dr. J. as a guy so athletic that he seems a generation ahead of his time.  When we see that athleticism, awe-inspiring speed, and the hops, we think he should be the best player of all time.  But maybe in James’ case, he’s just a tremendous talent that isn’t quite the best player of all time.

One other consideration is, since James’s shooting and offensive tool kit is a little unrefined, you have to wonder how he will adapt when he’s 32 and can’t run like a greyhound or jump like kangaroo anymore.  Bryant and Jordan already had the midrange game, the full tool box before they started to decline athletically, but “The King” hasn’t developed it yet.

Catch and Shoot: Deron Williams and Carmelo Anthony

Looking at the Deron Williams trade to New Jersey

Nets Perspective: The Nets traded point guard Devin Harris and this year’s third overall pick, Derrick Favors, to acquire Williams.  New Jersey made the deal to land a superstar and shed some salary, perhaps to add another star down the road.  They found their superstar in the 26-year-old Williams, a great player for at least the next 5-7 years.  Harris is a near All Star-level player, and Favors could develop into a very good player down the road.  If you compare what the Knicks gave up for Carmelo Anthony and what the Nets gave up for Williams, it’s not even close.  The Nets paid a very high price to get their man, but prevailing NBA logic says that if you can deal for a sure-fire star, you pull the trigger, made easier in this case as Harris has probably plateaued in his development and Favors is a “what if” player.  There’s no way of knowing if Favors will hit his ceiling, so dealing these two for a sure thing was a good move.

Jazz Perspective: In trading a superstar, you never get back equal value.  Shaquille O'Neal was traded for Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, and Caron Butler.  Anthony was dealt for Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, Tim Mosgov, and a pick.  So you may ask, “Why trade him at all?”  Williams was unhappy in Utah and would have left when he hit the free agent market in two years.  From that point of view, it makes sense to deal him.  If you’re going to lose a star, you may as well get something in return.  The Cavaliers and Raptors got nothing but a few picks for LeBron James and Chris Bosh, and they are now probably the two worst teams in the league.  In Harris, the Jazz get a relatively young guard who can score and facilitate.  Favors joins a talented Utah front court that already boasts Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson.  The Jazz may even be able to stay in the playoff race this year, but certainly they will not be a championship contender.  The only way this move really pays of for Utah is if Favors becomes a star, but we just have to wait and see on that.  The Jazz are starting fresh with the resignation of Jerry Sloan and the exodus of Williams, yet they start fresh with some nice building blocks.  As a Jazz fan, you can’t ask for much more, and it could have been much worse.

Carmelo Anthony Bolts for the Big Apple

Knicks Perspective: Some argue that the Knicks gave up too much to acquire Anthony.  I think in keeping Landry Fields and acquiring Corey Brewer as part of the trade, those concerns are invalid.  Brewer replaces Chandler well, Anthony is a huge upgrade over Gallinari, and Chanucey Billups is just as productive as Felton.  In essence, Anthony was the best player that moved in this trade by far, and the Knicks got him, so it’s a win on their end.   Pairing Anthony with Amare Stoudemire gives the Knicks two of best 20 players in the game today, and both are young—Stoudemire is 28, Anthony 26—with futures ahead of them.  Stoudemire is third in the league in scoring while Anthony ranks fifth.  The Knicks now have as good a duo as any team in the league and may even go out and acquire another big piece down the road.

In the NBA, a single player has a bigger impact than in almost any other team sport.  Only five guys are on the court at a time, so one guy can make a huge difference.  LeBron James' absence has meant a 50 win difference for the Cavaliers...in the wrong direction.  Felton, Chandler, and Gallinari were playing well, but their numbers were inflated in Mike D’antoni’s run-'n'-gun system.  None of those players has superstar-level talent.  Role players can always be replaced; superstars are rare. 

Some would agree with my argument but say, “The Knicks could have just waited for the off-season and signed Carmelo without giving up a thing.”  That’s flawed thinking because with a looming lockout, Anthony likely would have signed a $65 million extension with the Nuggets rather than risk getting far less money under the new collective bargaining agreement.   If there’s a lockout and Anthony hadn’t signed with Denver, he would have been without any contract.  With the lockout as a strong possibility as it is, he almost certainly would have taken the guaranteed money from the Nuggets.

Nuggets Perspective: "Well, crap," is what Nuggets fans are thinking.  It’s kind of like when someone you love is seriously ill, but you have months to prepare for the inevitable.  You know they’re going to leave you, but at least you have some time to get mentally prepared.  No Nugget fans were surprised by Anthony's departure, but it doesn’t mean they weren’t sad or disappointed.  The Knicks had most of the leverage in this deal because they knew Anthony didn’t want to go to the Nets.  They also knew the Nuggets desperately wanted to get something for Anthony.  So as the only true bidder in the Carmelo sweepstakes, they could lowball Denver.  The Nuggets get a solid point guard in  Felton, probably top-15 in the league.  Chandler is a talented and athletic young player, but he is a role player to be sure.  The biggest talent the Nuggets acquired was Gallinari, a 6’10” pure shooter and versatile offensive player.  There are concerns about his knees holding up, but the game is there.  They also acquired a project big man in Mozgov.  Again, in the NBA, three nice players do not equal one great one.  With five guys on the court, one of them has to be able to dominate and take over the game.  Denver didn’t get anybody in this trade that can do that.  What they did get is a nice foundation and some salary cap room.  If they can lure a true star to Denver to replace the one they just lost, or somehow find one in the draft, they will have some very nice players to surround him with.  JR Smith, Aaron Afflalo, Gallinari, Felton, Chandler, and Ty Lawson represent some very good young players who have a future with the team.

Which Player is the Bigger Piece: Anthony complements another superstar in Stoudemire, so acquiring him might seem like the bigger splash, but Williams is the better singular building block.   The NBA is a point guard-driven league, and Williams is as good any point man in the game.  When you get Williams, every player on your team immediately gets better because of his court vision and ability to set up other players with great looks.  Anthony improves your team because he is scoring machine, but he doesn’t impact his teammates in the same way Williams does.

Recap: The Nets and Knicks are the big winners because they got the stars.  The Jazz did as well as you can when you trade your franchise player.  The Nuggets did slightly worse, but were pretty much hamstrung because Anthony only wanted to go to the Knicks, so they had to settle for a moderate package.  Still, they got something, and that’s better than letting your star walk for free.

--from Adam