NFC West: 2011 Division Preview

St. Louis Rams

Taking a quarterback in the first round of the draft is always a boom or bust prospect, yet the St. Louis Rams appear to have hit the jackpot with last year’s number one overall selection Sam Bradford.  The Rams go as far as Bradford takes them this season, which I predict is straight through the heart of the NFC West and all the way to the playoffs.

Coming off a spectacular rookie campaign in which he accounted for every single Rams pass attempt, completing 60% of them for 3512 yards and 18 touchdowns, Bradford enters his sophomore season having to learn his second NFL playbook under new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.  Based on the results of that system in New England and Denver—Tom Brady’s record breaking 2007, Matt Cassel’s 11-5 2008, Kyle Orton’s 3700-yard-per-season average, Orton even could have surpassed 4000 yards last year had Tim Tebow not gotten in the way—assuming he gets it down, Bradford should flourish.

Joining Bradford on offense is the long-time Ram stalwart and top-10 running back Stephen Jackson.  An absolute workhorse for so many years, the 28-year-old Jackson has yet to show any signs of slowing.

On the outside Bradford made a pretty motley crew look like superstars last year.  Mark Clayton was their big play threat who got injured mid-season and was missed sorely down the stretch.  Danny Amendola looked like Bradford’s Wes Welker.  2009 standout Donnie Avery missed a lot of time last year and he should be back healthy ready to make an impact.  Young bucks Mardy Gilyard and Austin Pettis will look to make their marks, and free agent signee Mike Sims-Walker brings the elements of size and physicality to the rest of this smallish group.

Take this with a grain of salt, but rookie tight end Lance Kendricks has played very well in the preseason.  Kendricks can fill the athletic tight end role, a position Bradford astutely utilized in college throwing to Jermaine Gresham.

Another of the Rams’ offseason acquisitions, former Falcon Harvey Dahl, will join an already astute offensive line that features center Jason Brown, tackles Roger Saffold and Jason Brown, and guard Jacob Bell.  That all should shape up to be quite a unit for a long time.

After the departure of Oshiomogho Atogwe, the defense is left without many stars, though that’s not to say this isn’t a sound group.  Chris Long has improved each year in the league and is one of this defense’s young leaders, the other being Steve Spagnuolo’s on-field counterpart, middle linebacker James Laurinaitis.  Opposite Long, the 33-year-old James Hall racked up 10.5 sacks last year, making a scary pair of defensive ends.  A nice addition at safety, Quintin Mikell adequately replaces Atogwe, but overall the secondary lacks playmakers.

Biggest Strengths: Having Sam Bradford, the best quarterback in the division.

Biggest Weaknesses: The Rams are a young team that lacks experience, and they could use more talent in the secondary.

Eric’s Prediction: 9-7, First in NFC West

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Second in NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

I’m a little higher on Kevin Kolb than Adam is, but both of us agree, the Arizona Cardinals gave up a lot to get him, so he’d better be worth it.  Yet, I also argue that judging Arizona’s quarterback situation last year, there’s no way bringing in Kolb would not be a monumental improvement.

Kolb has not shown a lot in limited action—only seventeen games played and seven games started—but there have been glimpses of that ever-tantalizing “potential.”  Of his seven starts, Kolb posted 100+ passer ratings in three of them.  The other four were a blowout in which he was forced to attempt 51 passes and ended up throwing three interceptions (his first career start), a game he plain got knocked out of, one stinker, and a meaningless Week 17 game in which none of the regulars played.

Although Arizona possesses limited options on offense, the ones that are there are pretty good.  After his spectacular 2009 playoff run, many people believed Larry Fitzgerald to be the best wideout in football.  Even with Kurt Warner no longer chucking bombs last season, Fitzgerald still caught 90 passes for 1137 yards.  Losing Steve Breaston hurts this offense; either Andre Roberts or Early Doucet needs to catch on as the second receiving threat.  Todd Heap brings a tremendous set of hands to the tight end position, but staying healthy is never an easy task for “The Stormin’ Mormon.”

With Tim Hightower now in Washington and second-round draft pick Ryan Williams done for the year, the starting running back slot belongs solely to Beanie Wells.  A rebound after a sub-par sophomore season would greatly help this offense, but that could be a tough assignment considering the Cardinals’ lackluster offensive line.

Arizona runs a hybrid 3-4 defense, and up front Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell create lots of havoc both inside and outside.  The problem for Arizona: I don’t see much else behind them though.  Joey Porter is well past his prime, and though still a good player, so is safety Adrian Wilson.  In drafting Patrick Peterson the Cards got one of the top talents in the draft, but even so, relying on a rookie cornerback is typically a terrifying prospect.

Biggest Strengths: Having a weapon like Larry Fitzgerald makes everyone’s job easier.

Biggest Weaknesses: The most important position on the field is filled by a complete unknown, Kevin Kolb.

Eric’s Prediction: 8-8, Second in NFC West

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

With an exciting, new head coach, much optimism runs through the hearts of 49er faithful.  Jim Harbaugh was the most sought after head coach this offseason, and he comes to a team with offensive deficiencies that hasn’t had a winning record since 2002, the San Francisco 49ers.

And when I mention “offensive deficiencies,” that conversation begins and ends with Alex Smith.  The 49ers refuse to let former number one overall pick fall into a “bust” label; they keep giving him chances.  There have been moments where Smith takes one’s breath away and makes that number one selection seem worth it, but in equal measure are the moments that just make one sigh, or worse.

If San Francisco struggles this season, it’s all on Smith’s shoulders.  The skill positions are set with as good a supporting cast as there is in football.  Frank Gore is still running strong even after reaching the age of 28 and leading his team in rushing for the past six-straight seasons.  Regarded as the top talent in his draft, Michael Crabtree, though injured and may miss some time, is currently entering his third year in the league, the year where many wide receivers blossom and put up monster numbers.  To complement Crabtree the Niners brought in ex-Jet Braylon Edwards, who might have trouble catching the ball but whose athleticism is a definite plus.  Then over the middle they have the most complete tight end in football, Vernon Davis.  A sick athlete that catches passes and drives guys into the dirt in the blocking game, Davis does it all.

Plus, breathing down Smith's neck is the rookie second-round pick, Colin Kaepernick.  Either Kaepernick will push Smith to get better, or Kaepernick's mere presence will topple Smith's fragile psyche like a house of cards.

Quarterback guru Harbaugh has to be itching to groom Kaepernick—big arm, mobile, yet unpolished—into San Fran's quarterback of the future.  Yet the problem is that he might have to be the quarterback right now.

Joe Staley and Mike Iupati make up one heck of a left side to the offensive line; on the other San Francisco is still looking for the right mix.  Anthony Davis had a terrible rookie season and must rebound.  The 49ers also need to replace center David Baas, who departed via free agency.

After San Francisco’s 8-8 2009 season, the defense really looked like it was going to be great.  Led on the sidelines by Mike Singletary and on the field by Patrick Willis, they were supposed to be a force to be reckoned with.  Yet last year did not fulfill that promise.  Partly because that unit was a little overrated and another part because the offense was so terrible the defense never got off the field, the 2010 defense was a disappointment.

You can’t blame anything on Willis though.  Our choice for the best defensive player in the game, Willis is a terror on the field, but he needs help.  The secondary looks like it could be a good unit with Carlos Rogers coming in to play at one corner and a dynamic pair of safeties in Dashon Goldson and free agent signee Donte Whitner.  Backing them up will be Madieu Williams and Taylor Mays, two guys I'd like to see more out of than what they've shown.  First-round pick Aldon Smith must be good right away if the Niners hope to generate pass rush, but for a raw rookie, that seems like a stretch.

All told, this will be the year of Jim Harbaugh.  Can he change the culture of losing?  Can he change Alex Smith?  Those are the tasks that lay ahead.

Biggest Strengths: There is undeniable talent at the skill positions.

Biggest Weaknesses: Alex Smith.

Eric’s Prediction: 8-8, Third in NFC West

Adam’s Prediction: 8-8, First in NFC West

Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks can be summed up by its quarterback situation: either Charlie Whitehurst or Tarvaris Jackson.

I feel like I should stop there, but I’ll go on.

Outside of Russell Okung and to a lesser extent Robert Gallery, the offensive line is a pretty ugly unit.  Ditto for the running back group.  They have Marshawn Lynch, who wasn’t good enough hold down a starting gig in Buffalo; Leon Washington, who’s best as a kick returner; and scatback/wannabe R&B star Justin Forsett.  Their fullback, Michael Robinson, was a college quarterback, because when I think about what I want from a lead blocker, I think of a quarterback.

Zach Miller at tight end and wide receiver Sidney Rice are really nice targets to bring in, but who can get them the ball?

On defense they have Aaron Curry, who was one of the top talents in his draft but who is still trying to figure out the NFL game, and no one else I care to mention.

Last year’s playoff win be damned, our expectations are extremely low for the Seahawks.  This could be a long year.

Biggest Strengths: Uh… the 12th man?

Biggest Weaknesses: The roster.

Eric’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in NFC West

Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in NFC West

--from @jeuneski

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC West

Grading this year’s draft is a little tricky because due to labor uncertainty, we have no idea what will happen in free agency.  A draft pick may start right away for a departing free agent or unexpectedly sit behind a future free agent acquisition not yet on the roster.  The point is you can’t entirely judge what a team did in this year’s draft until you see the whole offseason picture, which free agency is an integral part of.  So for now, let’s look at the quality of players each team selected and do some guess work as to how each team met their needs.

Arizona Cardinals

Most people are going to crush them for passing on Blaine Gabbert.  Not me.  If you don’t think that a guy is going to be a franchise player as a quarterback, you don’t pay him fifth overall money.  The Cardinals must not have loved any of the passers available, and you’d have to assume they will make a move for Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, or another veteran signal caller.  If Arizona does find a solid quarterback, they will have a nice team to surround him with due to a very good draft this year.

Picking Patrick Peterson was the best thing they could have done.  He was the best player in this draft, and they got him with the fifth pick.  Combined with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Peterson instantly gives Arizona an elite corner duo.  Keep in mind this is also a defense that already boasts Pro Bowlers in safety Adrian Wilson and Darnell Dockett as well as rising star Calais Campbell.

In the second round the Cards nabbed what I consider to be an immense talent in Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams.  He is an electric open field runner with great vision, elusiveness, and natural ability.  He can form a terrific backfield trio with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower.

In the third round the Cardinals added the freakishly athletic receiving tight end Robert Housler from Florida Atlantic.  A perfect middle of the field, red zone, and deep target to draw coverage away from Larry Fitzgerald, Housler is 6’5” and ran a 4.5 40 yard dash at the combine.

Quan Sturdivant (North Carolina) and Sam Acho (Texas) are a pair of linebackers that I believe can start in this league and will improve the Cardinals’ defense instantly.

If you read the tea leaves, it’s clear this draft set the table for a veteran quarterback to come in and guide the ship.  Whoever's brought in will have Williams and Wells to hand the ball to, Fitzgerald and Housler to throw to, and a much improved defense on the other side.  The only thing, and this is rather glaring, is that Arizona did nothing to help their below average offensive line.  I love the talent they acquired, and I think they got a number of steals, but they didn’t draft a single offensive lineman.

Grade: B+

San Francisco 49ers

Say what you want about taking Missouri pass rusher Aldon Smith seventh overall, but I like the pick.  Adding an outside pass rush was the 49ers’ biggest defensive need, and with Von Miller off the board, San Fran got the best available man.  It might have been a slight reach, but Smith is a very talented player that was valued as a top-15 talent who meets a pressing need.

In the second round the Niners made another good move by drafting the hugely gifted Colin Kaepernick from Nevada.  Certainly Kaepernick is a project, but there were no slam dunk passers in this draft, and by taking the Nevada quarterback in the second round, the 49ers will avoid paying him exorbitant money.  Behind Cam Newton, Kaepernick was the most athletic quarterback in the draft.  Also, Kaepernick has the arm strength to make any throw, is considered very smart/coachable, and will be in the hands of quarterback guru Jim Harbaugh.  He won’t play immediately, but he has the talent to be a very good starter down the road.

The Niners kill two birds with one stone in the third round by drafting the speedy corner from South Carolina, Chris Culliver.  He ran a 4.36 at the combine, has good coverage skills, and can return kicks.  He should compete for the nickel back spot.

Perhaps an heir apparent to Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter in the fourth round was a tremendous value.  Injuries and fumble issues prohibited the very talented Hunter from going as high as the second round.  If he gets 5-10 touches a game, he could make an impact right away.

Ronald Johnson, the wideout from USC, was a good value in the sixth round as a potential slot receiver and kick returner.  The Niners also drafted two offensive linemen, two defensive backs, and a defensive lineman in the later rounds to add depth, competition, and perhaps find an every down player.

The Niners reached a bit in the first round, and while Kaepernick can be a good quarterback, he won’t help right away.  Culliver may have been a reach in the third, but Hunter was a steal in the fourth.  The Niners stockpiled players and added depth to the undermanned secondary in the later rounds.

Grade: B-

Seattle Seahawks

The Alabama offensive lineman, James Carpenter, their first round pick, could have been had in the late second or early third rounds.  John Moffitt is a guard I really like from Wisconsin, but Seattle could have gotten him later too.

Mississippi State’s KJ Wright, linebacker, was a solid pick in the fourth round.  He’s very athletic and fits with the rangy duo of Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry.  The only thing is, linebacker is already a relative strength on Seattle, and the defensive front was really what needed attention.  Seattle proceeded to draft three defensive backs before adding their lone defensive lineman in the seventh round.

After having such a great draft last year, I guess Seattle was due for a stinker, and that’s precisely what they got.  This was a team that needed help at the skill positions and also along the defensive line.  They got none of that.  They reached big time with their first selection and invested their top two picks in guys that may both play guard.

Grade: D+

St. Louis Rams

In the first round the Rams continued to add talent to an up-and-coming young defense.  Robert Quinn, a defensive end from North Carolina, is an immense talent who comes with plenty of question marks after sitting out all of last year with a suspension.  If he lives up to his ability, the Rams got a steal to bookend the improving former #2 overall selection, Chris Long.

Sam Bradford was tremendous as a rookie despite his top targets—Mark Clayton and Donnie Avery—missing most of the season.  Even with those guys coming back, Bradford needs more help.  This draft brought it in spades.

The middle of the second round may have been a little high to take Wisconsin receiving tight end Lance Kendricks, but he is a tremendous option in the middle of the field that has more than enough speed to outrun safeties and stretch defenses.

Austin Pettis in the third round adds another big target to Bradford’s arsenal.  At 6’3” and over 200 pounds, Pettis can be the possession receiver that complements the smaller and quicker combo of Avery and Clayton.

For good measure, the Rams selected yet another receiver with their next pick, taking Greg Salas from Hawaii.  Salas too is a big wideout at 6’2”, 206 pounds that comes from a pass-happy system in Hawaii.

You might think this is too much attention to one area of need, but the Rams’ offensive line is a good unit, and Stephen Jackson is a star running back, so receivers really were the only thing holding this offense back from being special.

In the late rounds the Rams drafted three defensive backs, the best of which may be Jermale Hines, a physical safety from Ohio State.  They also added a mostly unknown prospect, Jabara Williams to the linebacking corps, who will hope to make the team as a special teams player.

Robert Quinn has lots of red flags, but if he works out, he is an impact player added to an improving defense that was solid but unspectacular last year.  The Rams probably should have used one of the three picks they spent on receivers to add another playmaking defender.  Kendricks was probably a reach, though I think he will be a good starter in the NFL.  Pettis and Salas should make the team, but I don’t know if either will be special.  Still, Sam Bradford is the franchise, and management has now surrounded him with solid protection, a great running back, and a bevy of diverse, young pass catchers.

Grade: C+

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams

#13 Detroit Lions

What They Need: Wait a minute.  The Lions aren’t picking in the top-5?  What happened?  What happened is the Lions are at long last trending in the right direction.  If their ultra-talented quarterback Matthew Stafford can stay healthy next year, this team could make the playoffs, especially with the right pick here.  Cleary then, quarterback is not a need.  Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, and Tony Scheffler provide a nice array of receiving targets for Stafford, though another wideout could certainly help.  Jahvid Best is an explosive back but not an every down player.  He’s best served getting fifteen touches per game split between handoffs, receptions, and the occasional kick return.  To me, adding a feature running back could be a smart pick unless they think incumbent Kevin Smith can handle that load.  The offensive line has been a work in progress for years now that finally showed small signs of improvement last year.  They still should regard that unit as a major area of need, especially with the premium on keeping Stafford healthy.  Defensively the Lions took enormous strides last year.  Ndamukong Suh was one of the best defensive tackles in the league the moment he stepped on the field.  Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril provide good pressure and solid play at the defensive ends, and Corey Williams is a talented player next to Suh on the interior.  They need talent in the linebacking corps, but I don’t think they’ll address that position here.  Corner should be at the forefront of the Lions’ minds here, and safety is a need too, though there won’t be a prospect at that position worthy of the 13th pick.  With Louis Delmas at safety, and by drafting another playmaker for the back four, this group could start to hold its own.

Who They Might Pick: Combining needs and the crop of prospects available, I think the Lions will look at offensive line, cornerback, wide receiver, and maybe running back with this pick.  Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus are a decent offensive tackle duo, but by drafting a guy like Tyron Smith, Anthony Costanzo, Gabe Carimi, or Nate Solder, Backus could slide to guard and bolster that position.  Smith and Costanzo are the highest rated overall tackles.  If Julio Jones somehow drops to this point in the draft, they’d have to consider taking him.  Pairing Jones with Calvin Johnson would create perhaps the most physically gifted wide receiver duo in football.  Other than Jones, taking a receiver at this spot would be a reach as the next tier of pass catching prospects are seen as second round talents.  In terms of corner, Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara should be long gone.  Jimmy Smith could easily still be on the board though I have him being picked by the Vikings at pick 12.  If Smith is still available he would be a huge upgrade for this beleaguered secondary.  Aaron Williams from Texas and Brandon Harris from Miami are cornerbacks seen as late first or early second round picks, but if the Lions loved either guy, I’d have no problem with them taking one.   If the Lions are going for sex appeal with this pick or think they can address offensive line and secondary later on, they could target Mark Ingram here, the Heisman-winning running back from Alabama.  Ingram should be available, has great character, and runs with tremendous balance and vision.  He seems to be a guy that could come in and carry the load instantly.

My Advice: I’m enamored with the idea of adding Ingram to an already riveting group of young offensive players, but thinking long-term, offensive line has to be the way Detroit goes.  If they can’t protect Stafford it won’t matter who runs the ball, because Shaun Hill isn’t taking anybody to the Promised Land.  Detroit should take Anthony Costanzo, the offensive tackle from Boston College.  He is 6’7” and came into college weighing just 220 pounds.  He’s bulked up to 311 but retains the athleticism of a smaller man.  Scouts say he has a passion for being the best at what he does, and he started fifty-three straight games at BC.  An athletic, durable left tackle who’s a perfectionist sounds like a great way to improve Detroit’s offensive line.

At pick thirteen, the Detroit Lions select Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College.

#14 St. Louis Rams

What They Need: Sam Bradford has completely turned around a franchise that had won six games over the three seasons before he arrived.   So yeah, quarterback is not a need.  Usually a team that’s been really bad that drafts a quarterback number one overall needs offensive line help, but the Rams don’t.  Center Jason Browns is a beast, one of the most physically gifted players at his position.  Last year’s second round pick Roger Saffold played awesomely at tackle last year, and he’s bookended by recent second overall pick Jason Smith who is getting better and better.  Jacob Bell is an above average guard.  Stephen Jackson is a monster at running back that can run through you, past you, and catch the ball like a wide receiver.  He’s certainly got mileage on his legs, but he hasn’t declined yet.  Starting wide receivers Donnie Avery and Mark Clayton are good players who missed most of last year with injuries.  That made Bradford’s success all the more impressive.  While Avery and Clayton are good players, both are smallish and lack the physicality to be great targets in the red zone or to move the chains as possession receivers.  If the Rams could land a big-time wideout their offense really could click into gear.  Defensively the Rams have some nice building blocks.  Chris Long is steadily improving, and though he may have been a reach as the second overall pick a few years back, he is definitely one of the better players at his position league-wide.   James Laurinitis is going to be a star at linebacker.  After those two young players, the Rams defense is a collection of average players that are solid but unspectacular.

Who They Might Pick: If Julio Jones is here, it’s an open and shut case; they’ll pick him.  At 6’4” and 220 pounds with a 4.34 40 yard dash, Jones is exactly the physical specimen the Rams need on the perimeter.  The Rams could look at Florida center Mike Pouncey if they wanted to use him at guard and really make the offensive line an elite unit.  However that just isn’t a big need.  Defensively the Rams could look for a pass rusher opposite Long, the primary targets being Robert Quinn from UNC or Aldon Smith from Missouri.  That’s not a huge need with James Hall netting 10.5 sacks last year, but he’s 34 years old and probably doesn’t have many double digit sack years left.  Phil Taylor, Stephen Paea, Corey Liuget, JJ Watt, and Adrian Clayborn could all be options as defensive tackles.  Jimmy Smith and Aaron Williams could be options if St. Louis looks to address corner.

My Advice: Easiest choice yet, take Julio Jones.  He’s ready to play well right now.  He’s going to be bigger, faster, and stronger than every corner he lines up against, and Bradford is as accurate a quarterback a rookie could ask for.  Adding Jones would improve the Rams as much as any pick would improve any team in this year’s draft.  With Jackson as a top-5 running back, Bradford a rising superstar, a good offensive line, and two receivers in Avery and Clayton to be secondary threats, Jones could make this offense scary.

With the fourteenth selection, the St. Louis Rams take Julio Jones, WR, Alabama.

--from Adam

(first image from ncaagridirongab.com, second from zimbio.com)