AFC South: 2011 Division Preview

Houston Texans

Over the last few seasons, the Houston Texans have had a 12-4 offense and a 4-12 defense, and they always finished 8-8 and out of the playoff race.  Such offensive potential always had sports fans and pundits salivating and saying, “This is finally the year Houston overtakes Indy for the AFC South title.”  Yet the Texans’ defensive shortcomings always proved otherwise.  So when I predict the Texans take the division this season, I do so with the expectation that Houston’s new-look defense will be much better than its 2010 version.

Starting with the knowns on offense, Matt Schaub is a Pro Bowl passer that always puts up huge numbers and commands the offense very well.  Arian Foster is just 24 and is coming off a league rushing title, though losing lead blocker Vonta Leach will hurt.  Andre Johnson is arguably the best receiver in the league.

Owen Daniels has made a Pro Bowl at tight end and appears to be healthy so far, but the injury bug has bitten him the past two seasons.  If he stays on the field, Daniels’ contributions make this offense take the step from good to great.

While the offensive line lacks big names, their production is undeniable, last year paving the way for the league’s leading rusher and allowing Schaub the time to amass well over 4,000 yards through the air.

Houston desperately needed to improve its defense, and it did just that this offseason.  Under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, the Texans first added number one pick JJ Watt, who brings great versatility and playmaking ability to the front line.  Second-round pick Brooks Reed adds even more speed to the already stocked pass rushing cabinet of the Texans.  Mario Williams will be asked to move to 3-4 outside linebacker and essentially play the Demarcus Ware role Phillips established in Dallas, a glorified pass rusher.  Plenty athletic to play standing up, Super Mario could be even more effective than he was in the 4-3.

If the Texans can solidify the nose tackle position, DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing round out what could be a fantastic front seven.

The Houston secondary was historically bad last year, and if it could improve to simply a little below average unit this season, it could make all the difference.  Considering the improvements to the pass rush and front seven, there will be less of a burden on the back four.  Adding star cornerback Jonathan Joseph was a huge coup for Houston, and a smarter move than spending twice as much on the other big free agent corner, Nnamdi Asoumgha, a player three years older than Joseph.  Brandon Harris was also drafted to help at the corner spot, and Kareem Jackson is looking to rebound after an abysmal rookie season last year despite being the twentieth overall selection.

Biggest Strengths: Elite offensive firepower in Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson.

Biggest Weaknesses: An unproven secondary.

Adam’s Prediction: 10-6, First in AFC South

Eric’s Prediction: 11-5, Second in AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

Some see last year’s drop from the true NFL elite as a mere aberration that will be forgotten this year as the Indianapolis Colts rise back to the top of the standings.  I tend to see it more as a sign of things to come, though Indy will still be a very good team this year.  Quite simply, the Colts are getting older.  Peyton Manning is having some minor bumps and bruises, and the wear and tear of thirteen NFL seasons has to be getting to him on some level.

Still, Manning’s as good as it gets at his position, and with toys like Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie to play with, the offense should remain one of the league’s best.

The offensive line needed to get better than they were in 2010, and the Colts addressed that major need with two of their top picks in the draft, tackle Anthony Costanzo and guard Ben Ijalana.  Costanzo should come in and be solid right away and add some physicality to a typically finesse Colts line.  Jeff Saturday is a stalwart at center, but he’s 36.  The guards are average.  Ryan Diem is still a solid tackle and could form a sound pair of bookends with Costanzo, but this unit better gel fast if the Colts hope to protect their lotto ticket, #18.

Defensively, the Colts are still all about speed but yet again seem to be chronically undersized.

Dwight Freeney is still a superstar when healthy, and Robert Mathis has quietly averaged 10 sacks per year over the last seven years.  Jerry Hughes, the second-year man from TCU, should ingratiate himself more into the pass rush this season as well.

Coming from Chicago, defensive tackle Tommie Harris brings immense talent, but his health is always in question.  He’s great at shooting the gap and providing penetration but he gets banged up way to much.  Defensive tackles Fili Moala and rookie Drake Nevis need to contribute as big bodies in the middle to help the Colts’ run defense improve, an area where they have historically been soft.

Gary Brackett is an incredibly smart linebacker, but his age and physical limitations are catching up with him.  Compiling 88 tackles as a rookie, former Hawkeye Pat Angerer showed promise last year, and new addition Ernie Sims can help if he’s healthy.

Jeraud Powers is a nice young corner, and the safety tandem of Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea is one of the better duos in the league.

For Indianapolis, the best defense is a good offense, and it all starts with Manning.  If the Colts can get a lead then they can unleash their pass rushers, but in close games teams will be able to pound the ball with the running game, keeping Manning and his offense off the field.

Biggest Strengths: Peyton Manning.

Biggest Weaknesses: The run defense is a huge question mark.

Adam’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC South

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in AFC South

Tennessee Titans

Raise your hand if you have no idea what to make of the Tennessee Titans.  Raise your hand if you have no idea if Matt Hasselbeck is the guy who went crazy against the Saints in last year’s Wild Card game or the guy who tossed 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions during the regular season.  This is a hard team to figure, but if they get Chris Johnson signed, which I expect they will, they could be dangerous for anybody.

Hasselbeck played on a talent-depleted team last year in Seattle, and had nowhere near the running game he will have in Tennessee this year, so we may see an improvement out of him.  But if things go south for the Titans, do expect to see rookie Jake Locker.

Hasselbeck thrives off of play-action, which should be a real threat considering Johnson and Tennessee’s running prowess.  The Titans’ offensive line is one of the best groups in the league, and fullback Amhard Hall is a strong lead blocker.

An emerging star at receiver, Kenny Britt should be Hasselbeck’s go-to guy, and Nate Washington is a good vertical threat on the other side.  Beyond Britt and Washington the receiving corps is pretty thin.

The Titans need last year’s top pick, Derrick Morgan, to bounce back from an injury-ruined rookie campaign and become the pass rusher they expected.  Jason Jones is an undersized yet underrated player at defensive tackle, and the Shaun Smith adds size, if not much, else next to him.

Tackling machine Barrett Rudd was added via free agency, an excellent pick up after the departure of last year’s leading tackler Stephen Tulloch.  Second-round linebacker Akeem Ayers needs to join Morgan in pressuring quarterbacks.

The strength of the defense still lies in the secondary where Cortland Finnegan, Chris Hope, and Michael Griffin are all very good players.

Biggest Strengths: Running game.

Biggest Weaknesses: Uncertainty in the defensive front seven.

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Third in AFC South

Eric’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

Contrary to popular belief, there is still an NFL franchise in Jacksonville.

David Garrard had excellent numbers last year for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he never felt like a guy who could go out and win a game by putting his team on his shoulders.  Even posting a 91 passer rating, Garrard still felt like a game manager.

Maurice Jones-Drew is a superstar back that can do everything, and he’ll need to if Jacksonville wants to score some points.

Beyond Mike Thomas, who is just famous for catching last year’s Hail Mary, the Jaguars have zero wide receivers with any real ability.  Marcedes Lewis really broke out last season and will likely be the top target this year, but whenever the tight end can be double-covered without much concern for other receivers, you have a problem.

After investing a lot of high picks in the offensive line the past few years, that group now looks ready to come together.

The Jags offense seems to be getting everything in place for Blaine Gabbert to take over in a year or two: promising offensive linemen, stud running back, talented tight end, and now they just need to add some receivers.  That made the fact that they let Mike Sims-Walker leave for St. Louis a little puzzling as he was by far their most dangerous wideout.

Though Jacksonville majorly reached for Tyson Alualu in the draft last year, Alualu played excellently as a rookie and forms one of the better tackle tandems in the league alongside fellow youngster Terrance Knighton.  Paul Posluszny was a great signing that should make the Jags very tough up the middle.  Knighton and Alualu will penetrate and occupy blocks while Posluszny gobbles up tackles.

Rashean Mathis is now 30 but is still a good corner in this league.  The problem is, outside of Mathis, Knighton, Alualu, and Posluszny, there isn’t a ton of talent on the defense, and the offense is certainly not going to be expolsive.

Biggest Strengths: Defensive tackles Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton and middle linebacker Paul Posluszny make for an exciting core of the defense.

Biggest Weaknesses: Seriously, google their group of receivers.

Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC South

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC South

--from @AdamHocking

NFL Draft Grades 2011: AFC South

Houston Texans

 
With the 30th-ranked defense last year, it was easy to guess how Houston would draft.  They spent their first pick on a great fit for their new look 3-4 defense in JJ Watt (DE, Wisconsin).  Big, strong, athletic, and tireless on the field, Watt will be a good starter at the very least and could be a star.
 

Arizona linebacker Brooks Reed brings a big-time pass rush to Houston.  He should start right away and bookend Mario Williams nicely.
 

In the late second round, the Texans got a starting-level corner in Brandon Harris from Miami. 
 

Rashad Carmichael was another nice addition to the secondary in the fourth round, though he won’t be ready to help out next year.  He will need a year to learn and acclimate to the NFL environment, but he is an impressive athlete.
 

I like the pick of North Carolina quarterback TJ Yates in the fifth round.  Yates basically had the world crash down around him last year with so many of his Tar Heel teammates getting suspended for the year.  Yet he played tremendously in such an impossible situation.  Yates isn’t a huge talent, but the guy has guts.  He finds ways to score and win games.  I think he may develop into a good NFL starter given enough time.
 

The Texans improved their defense as much as any team improved on any side of the ball in this year’s draft.  Houston’s pass defense was abysmal last year, but with Watt and Reed getting after the quarterback and Harris improving coverage, this defense should be dramatically better next year.  Plus, Yates was a good value in the fifth.
 

Grade: A
 

Indianapolis Colts
 

Indianapolis addressed their biggest need head-on in the first round—protect Peyton Manning—by drafting stud offensive tackle Anthony Costanzo from Boston College.  Costanzo is smart, tough, durable, strong, and athletic.  He’s the perfect fit for the Indy system who will be able to step in immediately and upgrade the Colts’ protection.  The same can be said for Ben Ijalana (OL, Villanova) whom the Colts took in the second round.  Ijalana can play tackle or guard, is a great athlete, and is very strong.  He and Costanzo add a really physical dimension to an offensive line that has been lacking an identity for a while now.
 

In the third round, the Colts made one of my favorite picks in the draft.  They nabbed LSU defensive tackle Drake Nevis, and in so doing finally get the physical, nasty player they’ve needed in the middle of their defense.  Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy called Nevis the best player he ever played against, even better than thirteenth overall pick Nick Fairley.
 

Delone Carter (RB, Syracuse) was a nice pick in the fifth round.  At 222 pounds and with 27 bench press reps at the combine, Carter’s physical presence should help bolster a backfield that looked average last year between Joseph Addai and Donald Brown.
 

The Colts had a limited number of picks, but they really maxed them out and did a great job of changing the identity of their team.  They got three players that should start and bring tremendous strength and physicality to their offensive and defensive lines.  Costanzo should be a star, Ijalana and Nevis should be very good starters, and Carter adds a new dimension to the backfield.
 

Grade: B+
 

Jacksonville Jaguars
 

I don’t love Blaine Gabbert, but I love that the Jags got him at the 10 spot, and I love how he fits into their franchise.  Gabbert needs time to learn an NFL system and needs to be surrounded by talent.  In Jacksonville he can sit behind David Garrard for a year or two, learn the system, and then step in only when fully ready to take over an already talented team.  The Jags have been slowly building up their offensive line, and they have a star in Maurice Jones-Drew and a young defense that is on the verge of being very good.
 

In the third round, the Jags continued to improve their offensive line by selecting Lehigh guard Will Rackley.  Rackley is a smart, strong player who was a second round talent.
 

The Jaguars’ next three picks are all small school prospects that we will have to wait and see on.  Cecil Shorts (WR, Mount Union) is a quick, explosive player but not yet strong enough to get off jams at the NFL level.  Chris Proskinski is definitely a project coming out of Wyoming.  He’s a solid athlete that wasn’t spectacular in college.
 

This draft really was about Gabbert, and I liked that pick a lot.  Still, this isn’t a team that’s one player away from being a championship contender.  They needed to do more, and while I like the pick of Rackley, they needed to add more immediate contributors in the later rounds.
 

Grade: C+

Tennessee Titans

If you love Jake Locker, picking him is fine, but the Titans didn’t need to grab him 8th overall.  They could have traded down and paid a lot less for him.  Still, that’s who the Titans wanted, and this time last year he was projected as the number one overall pick.

In the second round the Titans got a good player that could have gone in the first round, Akeem Ayers (LB, UCLA).  Ayers is not a combine freak, but he is a nice athlete with great pass rush skills who will help the Titans defense right away.

USC defensive tackle Jurrell Casey was a solid pick in the third round.  He’s a stout player with decent quickness who will be tough to move in the run game.

I really like the fourth rounder Colin McCarthy (LB, Miami).  A very good athlete with all the ability to start, and be an impact player, McCarthy just needs to get bigger to play full time in the NFL.

Jamie Harper (RB, Clemson) was a reach in the fourth round, but at 5’11” and 233 pounds he brings the physicality and a change of pace to Chris Johnson.

Fifth rounder Karl Klug was a reach, but he’s a strong, hardworking player who could make the team.  The Titans also added three developmental players in the sixth and seventh rounds.

Locker was a reach but fit a need and is a big talent; I don’t mind the pick too much.  Ayers was a good value and meets a need; I like that pick.  Casey improves the defense and can play right away, and McCarthy was a steal in the fourth.  If Harper can be a 7-10 touch per game player and be effective, he will have been a steal.

Grade: B-

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings

#11 Houston Texans

What They Need: It’s hard to nail down the needs of this team.  New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips runs a 3-4 scheme, which would seem to displace the Texans’ best player, defensive end Mario Williams.  I would bet Houston will mix and match with some 3-4 and some 4-3.  Either way, Houston needs help at defensive tackle, outside linebacker, corner, and safety.  They were dead last at defending the pass a year ago and just average against the run.  Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing provide a great, young defensive nucleus, but they need support.  The Texans’ 2007 top pick Amobi Okoye has not lived up to potential at defensive tackle.  Kareem Jackson was a rookie last year at corner and looked like it.  He should be much better this coming year, but he needs another talented cover man opposite him.  Offensively the Texans are very talented.  Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the game, Arian Foster won the rushing title last year, and quarterback Matt Schaub has proven to be a top ten passer.  The offensive line has been much maligned through the years, but when a team ranks fourth in passing and seventh in rushing league-wide, the line can’t be that bad.

Who They Might Pick: Though the secondary is the Texans most glaring weakness, I doubt that Prince Amukamara will last to pick #11.  Patrick Peterson will also be long gone.  Colorado corner Jimmy Smith is a definite possibility here.  Standing 6’2”, he ran an impressive 4.42 at the combine and benched 225 pounds 24 times.  My guy Stephen Paea has been falling down draft boards lately, but he’s a possibility as well.  Lately draftniks are really enamored with the behemoth defensive tackle from Baylor, Phil Taylor.  He’s listed at 6’3” and 334 pounds and has surprising agility.  Not just a space-filler, Taylor was very productive last year, recording 62 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks.  If Houston is really committed to the 3-4, then outside pass rushers will be a high priority as well.  I would guess Cushing and Ryans would be the inside linebackers in that system, so help would be needed on the edge.  Robert Quinn from North Carolina could fall here, or Aldon Smith, a pass rusher from Missouri.  Adrian Clayborn might be a good catch-all pick for Houston, since they’re in transition.  He can play 3-4 end or 4-3 defensive tackle, push the pocket, and stuff the run.  Wisconsin's JJ Watt could fill that role as well.

My Advice: This is probably the toughest team yet for me to counsel.  The defensive side of the ball is where the pick has to be.  Corner is the biggest need, but the correct prospect might not be there, and defensive line is another big issue.  Since Houston was so god-awful against the pass last year, I just can’t justify them drafting a run stuffing defensive tackle, even though they certainly need one.  Antonio Smith and Williams are plenty big enough for to play end in the 3-4, so that takes Clayborn and Watt out of my equation.  By process of elimination, I’m left with the corner from Colorado, Jimmy Smith, and the two pass rushers, Quinn and Aldon Smith.  Since the Texans spent their first pick last year on a corner, I’m guessing they will go pass rusher with this selection.  Though Quinn projects higher, I’ll go with the guy who actually played last year, Aldon Smith from Missouri. Despite some injuries, he’s a great athlete and seems suited to play outside in the 3-4 system.

At pick eleven, the Houston Texans take Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri.

#12 Minnesota Vikings

What they Need: With the supposed, alleged, maybe happening, who knows for sure, possible retirement of Brett Favre, quarterback is unmistakably a need for Minnesota.  The problem is Newton and Gabbert should be gone by this point on draft day.  Other than quarterback, there aren’t too many needs offensively.  Adrian Peterson is the most imposing offensive player in the league, Sidney Rice is a star who should be back and healthy, and Percy Harvin is as talented a receiver as there is.  Visanthe Shiancoe is a solid tight end as well.  The offensive line is aging and could use some help, but it’s still an above average unit.  Left tackle Bryant Mckinnie is thought of as a tremendous player by some, a worthless waste of space others.  I fall somewhere in between; he’s a fine run blocker that sometimes doesn’t move well enough against great pass rushers.  Guard Steve Hutchinson has lost something with age, but is still one of the better players in the league at his position.  John Sullivan is unspectacular at center, but solid, and Anthony Herrera can move people in the run game.  I’m pretty sure right tackle Phil Loadholt is an alien life-form; no human should be that big (6’8”, 350 pounds).  He can be very good with further development.  Defensively the Vikings saw the first signs of decline in their dominant defensive line last year.  Maybe the best single unit anywhere in the league over the past few years, the Vikes’ front four looked average in 2010.  Pat Williams is plainly too old—age 38—to dominate anymore.  Kevin Williams is still a great player, but he needs a guy like Jared Allen to take up double teams.  Allen started last year horribly but really came on late and finished the season with 11 sacks.  He’s only 28 and still a monster, no signs of decline.  Ray Edwards is a good end opposite Allen.  Led by the excellent Chad Greenway, the linebacking corps is pretty good.  E.J. Henderson is great against the run, but he has an injury history and has reached the deadly age of 30.  They could use an infusion of talent here, but they run the 4-3 and a linebacker of that style worthy of a top-15 pick simply does not exist.  The secondary could really use some help.  Antoine Winfield should probably move to safety.  He’s still a great tackler, but he can’t cover one-on-one anymore.  Chris Cook looks to be a nothing more than a decent player after being drafted high in the second round last year, but maybe he just needs time to develop.  Minnesota’s safeties aren’t special either, but there aren’t many great safety prospects in this year’s draft.

Who They Might Pick: Boy, if this team could find a passer, they could be right back amongst the league’s best.  That’s the reality for Minnesota, and that’s why I think they’ll try to find a proven veteran quarterback rather than reaching for Jake Locker at this spot.  I’m going to assume the Vikes plan on making a move for Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb, or Carson Palmer.  With quarterback off the draft checklist, defensive tackle, linebacker, corner, and safety remain as principal areas of need.  If they fell in love with an offensive lineman here, that would be a solid pick too.  Mike Pouncey from Florida would represent a definitive upgrade to either the center or right guard positions.  If they look defensive tackle I think Taylor from Baylor should be the pick.  He’s a Pat Williams clone, just 15 years younger.  He would help keep blockers from doubling Kevin Williams or Allen and could recreate the impenetrable run defense the Vikings once had.  Like I said, there won’t be a 4-3 linebacker that’s worth this high of a pick, so that’s out of the question.  The same can be said for safety.  Jimmy Smith, the corner from Colorado, would be a great fit.  He’s a dynamic athlete with great size, speed, and strength.  Everything you want in a corner physically, Jimmy Smith is fully capable of competing athletically with the league’s best receivers.  Pairing Smith with Cook would give the Vikings a set of tall, physical corners.

My Advice: It comes down to the corner Jimmy Smith or the defensive tackle Taylor. From my point of view Minnesota has been searching for a lock-down corner for years now and can’t pass up such a talented prospect.  Jimmy Smith should be the pick.  The defensive line is plenty strong to be a good unit next year, even minus Pat Williams who is no longer a force.  Getting pressure on the quarterback shouldn’t be too much of an issue, but covering receivers has been a big problem for this team.  Take Smith, and if he lives up to his talent, the Vikings will be very happy and much improved.

With the twelfth pick, the Minnesota Vikings select Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado.

--from Adam

(first image from zimbio.com, second from dallascowboystimes.com)