NCAA Championship Game Notes

The 2011 college basketball championship was certainly historic but not for the reasons we would have hoped.  It was unquestionably the worst combined offensive display in championship game history, and Butler was unimaginably bad.  But, to the victor go the spoils, so let’s start with UConn.

-Jim Calhoun wins his third national championship, which passes Dean Smith and ties Bob Knight on the all-time list for most titles.  He now only trails Adolph Rupp (4), Mike Kryzewski (4), and John Wooden (10).  We don’t always talk about Calhoun with the same reverence as other all-time great coaches and I’m not sure why, but he has certainly locked up his spot as one of the best to ever walk the sidelines.

-Kemba Walker was horrible last night.  He went 5-19 from the field, but that’s also credit to Butler’s defense.  He did manage to snatch 9 rebounds; stars always find some way to impact a game.  Walker might really struggle on the next level to get his shot off.

-UConn Freshman Jeremy Lamb is going to be a star.  He played very well and was one of two Huskies, along with Alex Oriahki, to actually play well offensively.

-The Huskies' size was the biggest single reason they won this game.  They had ten blocks and changed virtually every Butler shot.  At one point late in the second half, UConn led 22-0 in points in the paint.  They also out-rebounded Butler 51-40.

-Early in the proceedings Steve Kerr called this game, “The Steelers vs. The Ravens”—perfect description.  Jay Bilas also tweeted during the game, “Jim Nantz can't wait to get to Augusta National for the Masters.  Someone is guaranteed to post a score at least in the 60's.”

-The play that clinched victory for Connecticut was Oriahki’s and-one dunk with 5:40 remaining.  It gave The Huskies a 13-point lead, and with how Butler was shooting, they weren’t coming back.

-The game last night was a horrible performance, but in no way should diminish what Butler has accomplished the past two years.  Making it to consecutive championships would be a tremendous feat for Duke, moreso for a mid-major.

-Brad Stevens is an incredible coach.  Last night it was obvious that Butler was not nearly as talented as UConn, but somehow they led at halftime and stayed in the game in the second half.  Butler shot 19% from the field, got thoroughly outrebounded, barely scored in the paint, and had two stretches without a field goal that spanned more than half of the game, and only lost by 12.

-I felt terrible for Matt Howard.  He went 1-13 in this game and just could not put the ball in the hoop.  Shelvin Mack wasn’t much better going 4-15.

-It was clear Butler finally missed last year’s star Gordon Hayward.  He was a guy that could manufacture his own shot, create off the dribble, and guard multiple positions. They needed him in this game badly.

-We often get bad games in the college basketball championship.  I think that’s because success in the tournament is not about being the best team, but matching up best with whatever opponent you draw.  Butler finally ran into a team they just couldn’t match up with, and they paid for it.

All in all it was a great tournament with a less than stunning climax.  We’ve seen this story before, and it proves once again that the first weekend of March Madness is really the best part of the tournament.  Congrats to UConn, and to Butler congrats on an amazing two year run.  Finally, to college basketball, goodbye for another year.

--from Adam

March Madness' Final Chapter: Picking UConn and Butler

In picking the Final Four matchups I analyzed every miniscule detail of both games, and it netted me an 0-2 record.  This time, I’m going to keep it simple…

Connecticut Huskies vs. Butler Bulldogs

Connecticut is going to have the edge on the boards with big bodied forward Alex Oriakhi and 7-footer Charles Okwandu.  Matt Howard is the best all-around post-player in this game, but he doesn’t possess the size or strength of UConn’s frontline.  At  6’11”, Butler center Andrew Smith has the length to rebound with the Huskies' big men, but he tends to get pushed around because of his slight frame.  UConn’s overall size, strength, and athleticism are going to wear on Butler.

The Bulldogs want to play a half-court game, but that really plays into Connecticut’s hands.  It’s going to be difficult for Butler to engineer points in the paint, and they aren’t a great three-point shooting team.  Throughout this tournament, Butler has had stretches where they just couldn’t score but overcame their offensive shortcomings with excellent defense.  Against Connecticut, that’s going to be a problem.  Kemba Walker is going to get his points.  He’s on a mission, and he’s absolutely unstoppable against man defense, which is all Butler plays.  Shelvin Mack may draw the assignment of guarding Walker, and that’s really dangerous for Brad Stevens’ crew.  If Mack racks up fouls or exhausts himself on defense, he won’t be able to carry the load on offense.

Considering Matt Howard’s uphill battle against the bigger Huskies frontline, Mack is going to have to shoulder a heavy burden on offense, and I don’t think he’ll be able to keep pace with Walker and the outstanding UConn freshman Jeremy Lamb.  Essentially, Butler’s man defense and UConn’s size will both win their share of battles, and the game will come down to Walker vs. Mack.  I’ll take Kemba in that matchup every day.

Prediction:  Connecticut 68 — Butler 61

--from Adam

Bracket Busted: Repicking the Sweet 16

(2) San Diego State Aztecs vs. (3) Connecticut Huskies

Tip-Off: Thursday, 7:15 Eastern

Network: CBS

Theme: Scrappy Aztecs Try to Stop the Kemba Walker Show

Even though San Diego State is 34-2, I think they’re overrated.  In watching them over the first two games they appeared to be a solid but unspectacular team.  Needing two overtimes to dispatch a so-so Temple squad should be worrisome for the Aztecs.  Conversely, UConn has looked like one of the stronger teams in the tournament.  The Huskies easily overwhelmed a Bucknell team many experts believed could pull off an upset or two.  Connecticut then beat Big-East rival Cincinnati with relative ease.

Besides how both teams have performed thus far in the tourney, I think UConn has superior personnel.  Kemba Walker will be the best player on the floor, and the Huskies’ size inside is something most college teams aren’t prepared for.  SDSU will play aggressive pressure basketball and aren’t devoid of length starting three forwards that range from 6’7” to 6’9”.  UConn’s starting power forward is Alex Oriakhi (6’9” 240 pounds) and they play 7-footer Charles Okwandu 15-20 minutes per game.  Connecticut, besides all their size, play a three guard lineup featuring Walker, and freshman guards Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb. Napier is a very good ball handler and passer, while Lamb is a scorer, good athlete, and accurate three point shooter.  Kawhai Leonard is the Aztecs’ best player, but he’s a bit of a tweener.  It’s hard to say if he’s a small forward or power forward, and the Huskies have plenty of players that can guard him.

One thing that gives me slight pause is that this game will take place in Anaheim, securing a home court advantage for SDSU.  Still, the Huskies have a national fan base and won’t be unrepresented on the West Coast.

Ultimately, when two relatively equal teams matchup, the squad with the best overall player should win.  The best overall player in this game will be Walker, and he has plenty of help around him.  UConn will own the boards, and the Kemba will own the day.

Prediction: UConn 73 — SDSU 65

(2) Florida Gators vs. (3) BYU Cougars

Tip-Off: Thursday, 7:27 Eastern

Network: TBS

Theme: Jimmer vs. the World

I said in the UConn-SDSU breakdown that when two equal teams matchup, whoever has the best overall player should win.  Jimmer Fredette is unquestionably the best player in this game, possibly the whole tournament, but are BYU and Florida relatively equal teams?  I don’t think so.  Florida has good but not great players all over their roster, fielding a deep, versatile, big, and talented team.

Florida clearly has more talent, size, and athleticism, so the question is can Fredette negate all those disadvantages?  Simply, no.  Ever since BYU lost their starting center, Brandon Davies, the Cougars have relied even more on Fredette to carry the load.  Jimmer will get his points and make some unbelievable shots, but it won’t be enough.  Billy Donovan is a great coach, and he’ll be able to win a game where he basically has to stop one guy.  Force Fredette to take difficult shots, make him work defensively, and tire him out over the course of the game.

Additionally, Florida will have a big edge in the rebounding battle.  The Gators start Chandler Parsons and Vernon Macklin, both 6’10”, forward Alex Tyus is 6’8”, and reserve Erik Murphy is 6’10”.  The Cougars’ tallest player is 6’9”.  Florida’s guard play is dynamic as well; Erving Walker and Kenny Boyton are excellent scorers that handle the ball and defend.

Jimmer was good enough to beat Gonzaga and Wofford by himself, but the Gators are too competent offensively, too big, and too athletic to overcome.  Unless Fredette scores 50, the Gators win.

Prediction: Florida 68 — BYU 58

(1) Duke Blue Devils vs. (5) Arizona Wildcats

Tip-Off: Thursday, 9:45 Eastern

Network: CBS

Theme: Arizona’s Athletes vs. Duke’s Precision

The Blue Devils are only getting stronger at the right time of year.  Freshman sensation Kyrie Irving is back and should be even better with another week to get into the groove.  Guard Nolan Smith should be heavily considered for the Naismith, and forward Kyle Singler is one of the best all-around players in the country.  The Plumlee Brothers are unspectacular in the post, but they are solid and use their considerable size well.  Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins provide good support, scoring, and depth for the big three of Singler, Smith, and Irving.

Arizona is entirely dependent on the play of the extraordinary sophomore forward Derrick Williams.  He’s very strong and can play either inside or out.  Singler will be able to guard him on the perimeter, but lacks the strength to give Williams problems in the post.  Williams will get his points and give the Blue Devils problems, but he won’t have enough help.  The second leading scorer for the Wildcats averages just 9 points per contest.  Additionally, ‘Zona doesn’t have great size in the post, something that traditionally gives Duke issues.  What Arizona does have is tremendous athleticism across their lineup.  They should be able to deal with Duke’s three guards and will have the horses to stay with Singler.  Defending the three point shot is vital against the Blue Devils, and Arizona has the potential to do that very well.

In the end though, Duke is too smart, too consistent, and too talented for the Wildcats.  I expect Arizona to try to make this an up and down frenetic game.  They may succeed for a half, but they won’t be able to dictate pace the whole way.  Ho-hum, Duke advances to the Elite 8 once more.

Prediction: Duke 71 — Arizona 63

(4) Wisconsin Badgers vs. (8) Butler Bulldogs

Tip-Off: Thursday, 9:57 Eastern

Network: TBS

Theme: Defense, Defense, Defense

After reviewing my original bracket and contemplating this piece, I promised to pick with my head and not my heart like I did the first time around.  This is the game that will most test that assurance.  Of all the Sweet 16 matchups, this one is the most likely to be close throughout.  These teams will be back and forth all night, and I doubt either will build a truly sizeable lead.  Defensively, these are two of the best groups in the country, they hang their hat on that end of the floor, it’s the identity for both.  We will surely witness a low-scoring, grindingly methodical game.

We may also have two of the three best coaches in the country in Butler head man Brad Stevens and Bo Ryan for the Badgers.  Stevens is a numbers guy; he finds a way to milk the clock and maximize every possession.  Bo knows hoops inside and out; he’s great with his players and makes terrific adjustments.

The key to the game is going to be which team can score down the stretch.  In a defensive game that’s close throughout, one team will have to find a way to manufacture some points. Who is more equipped to score in tight situations?  Butler certainly has experience after going to the 2010 Final and returning most of that team this year.  Guard Shelvin Mack is an exceptional player who has turned up his level in the tournament.  Forward Matt Howard is a really smart player that has added three point range to his arsenal of post moves.  Wisconsin counters with two oddly similar players.  Guard Jordan Taylor is a savvy scorer that leads a Badgers offense that is on a historic pace in terms of limiting turnovers.  Forward Jon Leuer, much like Butler’s Howard, can catch the ball on the block or step out to the three line and be effective.

Perhaps my justification for who will win this game comes down to luck.  Butler has been very lucky thus far escaping Old Dominion at the buzzer and beating Pittsburgh in the strangest game of the tournament.  Stevens’ bunch may have used all of their get out of jail free cards and are unlikely to be so lucky against Wisconsin.  Butler has been an inconsistent team on the year that is playing well now, but we’ve seen them have flat performances, and I just don’t see them making the Elite 8 two years in a row.  Wisconsin also has played very well thus far in the tournament, and Taylor had his worst game of the season in their last game against Kansas State.  In other words, he is due for a big time performance.  In a defensive struggle, I believe his play will be the difference.

Prediction: Wisconsin 62 — Butler 59

(2) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (11) Marquette Golden Eagles

Tip-Off: Friday, 7:15 Eastern

Network: CBS

Theme: Pros vs. Joes

Talent vs. grit is the name of this game.  UNC has the future pros and the pedigree, and Marquette has the “us against the world” card to play.  The Golden Eagles also have a tremendous amount of team quickness and athleticism.  They play pressuring, aggressive defense, and often double the post to make up for their lack of size.  But if UNC can find the open man out of that double team and make their outside shots, they should win going away.

There’s no way Marquette can board with the frontline of Tyler Zeller, John Henson, and Harrison Barnes.  UNC is 1^st in the country in rebounds per game.  Marquette is 104^th.  Usually when a team has that big of an advantage in such a significant aspect of the game, you know who should win.  UNC coach Roy Williams is too good at what he does to lose a matchup where he has such an advantage.

I expect Marquette to make this game ugly, fast, wild, and lots of fun.  However, UNC can play up-tempo, and they can win that type of game.  The personnel for North Carolina will be too much for feisty Marquette.

Prediction: North Carolina 76 — Marquette 67

(1) Kansas Jayhawks vs. (12) Richmond Spiders

Tip-Off: Friday, 7:27 Eastern

Network: TBS

Theme: Is Cinderella Ready for the Ball?

David vs. Goliath certainly sums up this matchup on paper, though I don’t think Richmond feels that way.  The Spiders have grown accustomed to pulling upsets and have made some runs over their history.  Kansas typically struggles with mid-majors in the tournament, seeming to play tight.  For some reason though, I think the Jayhawks are ready to have their best performance.

When Kansas plays up-tempo and unencumbered, they are really tough to beat.  Richmond will have to play a perfect game to win, and even that might not be enough.

Richmond forward Justin Harper is a very good player who at 6’10” can rebound, score from all over the court, and should be able to check one of the Morris twins from Kansas.  Spiders guard Kevin Anderson complements Harper as a really talented second scorer.  Any time a team has two players that can really light it up, they have a chance.

Unfortunately for Richmond, Kansas has the best post duo in the nation in Marcus and Markieff Morris.  Both brothers can step away from the hoop, play with their backs to the basket, rebound, pass, and challenge shots.  Tyrell Reed and Brady Morningstar both really shoot the three ball.  Tyshawn Taylor and Josh Selby can also shoot from distance; they bring great speed to the guard positions.  Thomas Robinson is an excellent reserve forward who averages 8 points and 7 rebounds in just 15 minutes of game action.  Kansas can play eleven guys or can shorten their rotation to eight players.  They can play fast, they defend, they shoot the three, and they have talent in the post.  Richmond has two very nice players who likely would be backups on the Jayhawks.  I just can’t see KU losing this game.

Prediction: Kansas 74 — Richmond 59

(1) Ohio State Buckeyes vs. (4) Kentucky Wildcats

Tip-Off: Friday, 9:45 Eastern

Network: CBS

Theme: Talent as Far as the Eye Can See

This is easily the sexiest matchup of the Sweet 16.  There is pro talent all over the floor, and Kentucky just might have more than the top-seeded Buckeyes.  Still, no one is playing as well as Ohio State right now.  Jared Sullinger has been unstoppable on the block, and he provides wide open jumpers for many a Buckeye marksman—Jon Diebler, William Buford, and David Lighty.  Buckeye point guard Aaron Craft has been great all year at setting the table for all the talented scorers on this team.  Craft handles the ball well and is a terrific passer and excellent defender.  Freshman sixth man Deshaun Thomas is a McDonald’s All-American that would start for most any other team.  Buckeye forward Dallas Lauderdale is a monster in terms of challenging shots and using his body to wear down opposing bigs.

Kentucky won’t be intimidated by the size or talent of Ohio State because they can match the Buckeyes player for player.  Wildcat center Josh Harrellson is the rare player that can equal Sullinger’s size in the post at 6’10” and 275 pounds.  He’s very strong, can score when needed, and plays with excellent body position, a true test for Sullinger.  Harrellson doesn’t need to outscore #0; he just needs to make his life difficult.  Kentucky forward Terrence Jones can do everything.  He’ll shoot, handle, pass, slash, or post up, a tough matchup for the plodding big men of Ohio State.  Freshman point guard Brandon Knight is a true star, capable of hanging 30 points if he needs to.  Craft will have his hands full checking Knight all day.  Knight is flanked by sweet shooting freshman Doron Lamb, who makes threes at a nearly 50% clip. Deandre Liggins and Darius Miller provide Kentucky with slashing wing players who can also knock down the outside shot.

Kentucky is the more athletic team, but not by much.  Ohio State is stronger inside but just by a nose.  With the post and point guard matchups equaling out, I think the wing players will account for the difference in this game.  Diebler, Lighty, and Bufford are just too good right now.  They will outperform Liggins and Miller.

Prediction: Ohio State 69 — Kentucky 63

(10) Florida State Seminoles vs. (11) Virginia Commonwealth Rams

Tip-Off: Friday, 9:57 Eastern

Network: TBS

Theme: One of these teams is going to be in the Elite 8?

The best thing about this matchup is that a double digit seed is assured of making the quarterfinals.  That means we will get one of those Cinderella vs. Perennial Powerhouse matchups in the next round, and we all love that.

This game is relatively simple to break down.  These are two of the best defensive teams in the country that both struggle to score on offense.  Thus, it should come down to rebounding and turnovers.  The team that limits its mistakes and gets the most second chances on the boards should have the most chances to put the ball in the hoop.  And I think that team will be Florida State.

The Seminoles’ star player, Chris Singleton, has been working his way back from injury and should be ready to play big minutes in this game.  That’s huge because he’s the one guy who FSU can rely on to get tough baskets.

VCU plays a lot of guards; their second tallest player who actually plays significant minutes is just 6’6”.  Their biggest player is star forward Jamie Skeen.  Skeen is going to have to play possessed to compete with FSU’s size and athleticism in the paint.

This is going to be a really low scoring game, but FSU has the best defense in the nation and are one of the more rugged teams I’ve seen this year.  I give the Seminoles the nod.

Prediction: Florida State 56 — VCU 49

--from Adam

The Onset of March Madness

Favorite player: Jake Odum, Indiana State

The Sycamores lost to #3 seeded Syracuse, but it wasn’t for lack of trying.  Indiana State point guard Jake Odum threw no-look passes like they were going out of style, steam-rolled around the court without regard to teammates or defenders, and seemed to hop as he was running.  Energy emanated from Odum at all times.  He played with an absolute verve, like he was truly enjoying the challenge of playing a storied opponent.  Exciting, undpredictable, and unusual, someone like Odum encapsulates the beauty of March Madness.  It’s so much fun to watch these teams you’ve never even heard of and to be surprised by the talents they possess.

Best Madness Moment: Butler Upsets Pittsburgh

Down one point with less than ten seconds to go, Butler gets a layup to surge ahead.  Pitt, in a hurry with just 5 seconds left, inbounds the ball to guard Gilbert Brown rocketing down the far sideline hoping to hoist a last second shot.  But before Brown reached mid-court, Butler star Shelvin Mack senselessly fouled him, resulting in a 1-and-1 for Pittsburgh who needed to sink both free throws to take the lead, and likely, the game.  Brown calmly made the first free throw to knot the game at 70.  The second shot seemed a lock to go in; Pittsburgh had all the momentum and Butler just made a crushing mistake.  Brown fired his second attempt and clanged it off the rim.  Butler forward Matt Howard elevated for the rebound, snatched it, and on his way down was inexplicably hacked by Pitt forward Nasir Robinson.  Mind you, Howard was 90 feet from his own basket with less than two seconds remaining.  There was no earthly reason to touch Howard, yet Robinson blatantly fouled him.  Pitt was in the penalty, so in a tie game Butler’s Howard went to the line needing to make one free throw to effectively knock off the #1 seeded Panthers.  Howard stepped to the line, made the first foul attempt, purposely missed the second, and time expired.  I’ve never seen two more horrible fouls so close together completely shift the game in both directions.  In the span of four seconds, Butler hit a shot to take the lead, Pittsburgh got fouled with a chance for the go-ahead free throw, and then Butler sealed the game at the line.

Morehead State’s last second shot against #4 seeded Louisville is a strong runner up to the Butler-Pittsburgh game.  Down two points with the ball and 20 seconds remaining, Morehead chose to not go for the tie and gave themselves no chance for a put back rebound by running out the clock and hoisting a buzzer beating three.  The Eagles made the shot and advanced to the Round of 32, shocking Rick Pitino’s Cardinals.

Most Impressive Team: Ohio State Buckeyes

A dominant win over Texas-San Antonio was no surprise, but their demolition of George Mason was a statement performance.  Jared Sullinger is the best post player in the nation and Jon Diebler is a certified marksman from deep.  They are experienced, athletic, and have multiple scorers, the full package.  The Buckeyes are as big a favorite as any team to win a championship.

Most Dissapointing Team: Tennessee Volunteers

To be the most disappointing team, you need to have played poorly.  Anybody can get beat, like Pittsburgh did against Butler.  Pitt, though, played well in that game and lost a spandex tight contest to the defending national runner up.  I’m not disappointed by Pittsburgh because they played terrific basketball.  "Terrific" does not exactly sum up the play of the Tennessee Volunteers however.  8 vs. 9 games are supposed to be close, yet the Volunteers got squashed by 30 points against Michigan.  The Wolverines are a solid team, but they shouldn’t beat anyone like that.  I’m sure the Tennessee coaches and players were totally distracted by the inevitable firing of Bruce Pearl, but my God, please have a little pride.

The Tournament Selection Committee Knows What It’s Doing

Lots of people always complain about how poorly the committee seeds the tournament, but they did a great job this year.  The higher seeds, meaning teams 1-8, went a combined 25-7 against the lower seeds.  The only major upset in the first two days was Morehead State's victory over Louisville.  #11 seeded Marquette over #6 seeded Xavier should not shock anyone, a talented power conference school beating a mid-major.  #11 seeded Gonzaga beat #6 seeded St. Johns; the Zags are always dangerous in the tournament.  #10 Florida State beat #7 Texas A&M, #11 VCU took out the struggling #6 Georgetown Hoyas, Richmond outlasted Vanderbilt in the deadly 12-5 matchup, and #9 seeded Illinois beat #8 seed UNLV.  The Louisville loss was the one game in the entire first round that surprised.

Thoughts on CBS, TruTV, TBS, and TNT teaming up to bring us every game in its entirety: Pure American Awesome-ness

Commercials were almost entirely avoidable, and you could potentially watch four different close games come down to the wire simultaneously.  The best sporting event in the world just became four times more accessible.  Rarely does something so good become exponentially better, but that’s what happened with this year’s tournament.  Also the new setup allowed Charles Barkley onto the CBS set, instantly quadrupling the entertainment value of pregame, halftime, and wrap-up shows.

--from Adam

Hill 364 Bracket Challenge

Adam's Bracket (Final Four: North Carolina, UConn, Kansas, UCLA; Champion: Kansas)

Eric's Bracket (Final Four: Ohio State, Duke, Purdue, Wisconsin; Champion: Duke)

(click to enlarge)

Making Sense of the Madness: Contenders, Teasers, and Sleepers

Getting a grasp on the enormous landscape of college basketball can be an overwhelming prospect.  That’s why I’m here my people, to help you out.  Allow me to lend you a hand and add some clarity to the college hoops chaos.  I’m going to take a look at the top ten ranked teams according to the AP poll and tell you which teams are legitimate contenders to win a championship and which teams are just nice stories having good seasons.  I’ll also provide a few sleeper picks outside of the top-10.  The numbers next to each team indicate their AP ranking and not any sort of order I’m placing them in.  Now let’s get to it!

What I’m Looking For in a True Championship Contender:

1. Pro Talent: You need guys that can carry a team for a game or two if the rest of the team is off.
2. Multiple Scorers: Related to the last point, you need multiple guys that can fill it up if other players are having a bad night.
3. Post and Perimeter Presences: A team of guards or bigs alone won't get it done.
4. Experience: Perhaps a slightly overrated trait, but there’s a reason Michigan State and Duke make the Final Four all the time even without always having elite talent.
5. Coaching: It’s not easy to win six straight games that get increasingly more difficult as the spotlight intensifies.  A master tactician and brilliant motivator like Coach K cannot be underestimated.
6. Depth: Having multiple options off the bench keeps everyone fresh and gives the coach options if his starters aren’t performing, which is almost a certainty at some point during the tourney.

You also need luck, but that’s not something I can quantify or predict.  Keep in mind that these aren’t absolute hard and fast criteria, just things I look for.  If you have loads of talent with a great coach but limited experience, it doesn’t mean you can’t contend.

The Contenders

#1 Ohio State Buckeyes: Jared Sullinger covers the pro talent and post presence bases; he may be the most dominant player in college hoops, even at only 6’9”.  He’s almost a guaranteed two points when he gets the ball down low, he can dominate the boards, and defends the paint.  William Buford, David Lighty (who seems to have been in college for a decade), and John Diebler cover the perimeter shooting and the need for multiple scorers.  Any of these three guys can go for 20 points.  Diebler shoots an incredible 50% from the three point line.  The Buckeyes also boast tremendous experience starting three seniors.  Dallas Lauderdale doesn’t score much down low, but he’s a big body that rebounds, blocks shots, and complements Sullinger well.  Thad Matta is an excellent coach who has loads of tourney experience.  This team is probably my overall favorite to win it all.

#2 Kansas Jayhawks: The Morris Twins (Marcus and Markieff) make Kansas a top threat to win the whole enchilada.  Marcus is 6'9” and Markieff is 6’10”, giving the Jayhawks two talented, big bodies that will solidify the post advantage most nights.  Marcus is the bigger talent, able to step away from the post and play effectively while facing the basket.  Senior guard Tyrell Reid and freshman guard Josh Selby combine talent and experience to form a very good backcourt.  Ten players on the Jayhawks play significant minutes, giving them tremendous depth.  Bill Self is an excellent coach who has won a title and made numerous other deep tournament runs.  No team at any point will have a significant talent edge over KU.  The only thing that worries me is that they don’t have the singular star who I feel comfortable taking the clutch shots.

#4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Most pundits are going the other way on the Fighting Irish, thinking they've had a nice regular season but won’t sustain a long tournament run.  Yes, they rely a lot on the three-ball, but they also make a ton of them.  Ben Hansbrough is a stellar guard who can take over a game with his shooting.  He averages 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists per game, some of the best numbers put up by any guard in the country.  6’8” forward Tim Abromaitis is a solid rebounder and can score from the perimeter or inside that puts up 15 points and 6 boards per game on the season.  Tyrone Nash is a tough player inside, and at 6’8” crashes the boards well while still providing some scoring production.  Guard Scott Martin is a solid player, who at 6’8” is versatile and presents matchup problems.  Mike Brey is a good coach who has steadily improved the Notre Dame program without headliner recruits.  This team shares the ball, defends, and simply plays the right way.  What I like most about the Irish is that Hansbrough, Abromaitis, Nash, and Martin–their four best players–are all seniors.

#5 Duke Blue Devils: I must be anti-Duke because I was trying to configure reasons why they aren’t a contender.  In most other years, I don’t think they would be, but there is no great team in this year’s crop.  Mike Krzyzewski usually wins unless his opponent has significantly more talent than his own squad.  Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith carry a heavy burden, but it’s one they can manage.  Rumblings about freshman phenom Kyrie Irving returning for the dance makes Duke an even stronger contender.  The Plumlee brothers are solid inside, but not much more than that.  If Duke is going to do it again this year, it will be on the strength of defense, the Singler-Smith combo, and the incomparable Coach K.

#6 North Carolina Tar Heels: UNC point guard Kendall Marshall is not going to snatch the press clippings from the NBA-ready frontcourt of Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller, and John Henson, but he is the reason the Tar Heels turned their season around.  UNC had an awful beginning to their year, mostly because they couldn’t find a point man to set up their fantastic forwards.  They’ve now found that man in the freshman Marshall.  This comparison will get me skewered, so really listen to what I’m saying before you go nuts.  Marshall reminds me of Deron Williams when he played at Illinois.  He’s not the all-around star, scorer, or player that Williams was, but he has the same craftiness with the ball in his hands.  Most of the time it’s a cliché when we say, “This guy really sets up his teammates well.  He puts them in a position to make plays.”  With Marshall it’s the absolute truth.  His vision borders on telepathy, like he knows where everyone will be a split second before they get there.  His passes are always right on the mark, not just hitting people in the hands, but hitting them precisely where they need it to make their next move, be it a dunk, jump shot, dribble drive, or another pass.  The guys Marshall is setting up don’t hurt the championship equation either.  Freshman forward Harrison Barnes was literally billed as the next Kobe Bryant; he was a preseason First Team All-American.  Even though he hasn't quite lived up to that potential, there won’t be a player he faces that is more talented than he is.  Barnes can do everything on the court from defending, handling the ball, shooting from range, to crashing the boards.  Zeller and Henson combine for 26 points, 17 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game.  They also change the complexion of the game with their length and athleticism.  Barnes, Zeller, and Henson will all be first round picks in the next year or two.  The depth behind the aforementioned four players isn’t great, but it’s decent.  And ol’ dad-gum Roy Williams should have this bunch ready to rumble as he usually does come tourney time.

#10 Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns are probably fool's gold; I originally placed them as a “teaser.”  When it came down to it though, this is a team with a ton of talent, which can defend as well as any group in the nation.  Bobby Knight called Texas forward Jordan Hamilton the best offensive player in the country.  That’s good enough to make this team a contender considering Coach Knight knows more about hoops than everyone I’ve ever met combined.  Hamilton can do everything on the floor as he averages 19 points and 8 boards a game.  Hamilton, Tristan Thompson, and Gary Johnson compose one of the most talented frontcourts in the nation, though it isn’t an overly tall group.  They make up for that relative lack of size with tremendous athleticism and great help defensively.  Point guard Dogus Balbay doesn’t score the ball much, but he has great floor vision and keeps the talented Texas forwards well-fed.  Corey Joseph is a very talented freshman guard who is capable of scoring in bunches.   I don’t love Rick Barnes as a coach, but he’s experienced and has a very talented team.  If everything breaks right, the Longhorns could be left dancing at the end.

The Teasers

#3 Pittsburgh Panthers: Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker, Gilbert Brown.  Have you heard of any of these guys?  Probably not.  And although it’s a simplistic argument, I don’t think teams win titles without at least a couple of players somebody has heard of before.  Gibbs is the best scorer on the team, and Wanamaker is solid, but neither is capable of being the best player on a championship squad.  Yes, Pitt has survived and thrived as the best team in the Big East, but they're built to play solely in that conference.  They’re tough, play great defense, and execute smart basketball, but they don’t have the scoring arsenal or talent to win six tournament games.

#7 San Diego State Aztecs: Read the below entry on BYU, and then consider that San Diego State lost to the Cougars twice by sizeable margins.  The Aztecs are an athletic team, and Kawhi Leonard is a star, but they haven’t beaten a single elite team this year.  Their ranking is inflated because they’ve beaten a lot of so-so teams.  If this team loses in its first or second game, I won't be surprised.

#8 BYU Cougars: What do you know about this team other than that they have Jimmer Fredette?  Not much, right?  That’s because there isn’t a ton else to know.  The Cougars' third best player Brandon Davies got suspended from the team for breaking the honor code (meaning that he had sex with his girlfriend, more power to ya Brandon!).  Davies was their best rebounder and biggest presence inside.  The Collinsworth brothers (Chris and Kyle) are solid players but nothing more.  Charles Abou and Noah Hartsock will be depended on to play somewhat out of position, rebound, and defend the rim more than they’re used to.  Jason Emery is a nice complementary guard to Fredette, but he’s not a star.  Jimmer’s burden is going to be enormous in the tournament, and even he is not good enough to cut down the nets with this average supporting cast.

#9 Purdue Boilermakers: I love Coach Matt Painter.  I love guard E’Twaun Moore.  I love forward/center JaJuan Johnson.  The problem is, that’s all I love.  They have two very good but not great players, a good system, and a good coach.  Without injured forward Robbie Hummel they just don’t have enough scoring punch or enough margin for error.  Johnson and Moore are talented enough to win a few games, but they can’t carry this team all the way.  Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight seems like the limit for this squad.

The Sleepers

#13 Wisconsin Badgers: They play defense as well as anyone, and Bo Ryan is the best coach in college hoops not hailing from Duke.  Jordan Taylor and John Leuer give the Badgers an uncharacteristic scoring duo and could carry this squad to new heights.

#16 Arizona Wildcats: Two Words: Derrick Williams.  He does it all, maybe the best all-around player in college hoops.

#17 St. John's Red Storm: An experienced team where all five starters are seniors, a player’s coach in Steve Lavin, and a true star in guard Dwight Hardy, this team has a lot of the elements I look for when prognosticating a tourney run.  They beat Georgetown, Notre Dame, Duke, UConn, Pitt, and Villanova this year.  In other words, they can beat anyone on a given day.

#19 Kanas State Wildcats: Guard Jacob Pullen is as good as any player in the country and can score 30 on any night.  They’ve beaten Kansas and Texas and won eight of their last nine games.  They're hot, and their coach scares everyone.  That’s gotta count for something.

#21 Connecticut Huskies: Kemba Walker might be the most dangerous scorer in the nation besides Fredette, and freshman point guard Shabazz Napier is very talented at distributing and handling the ball.  Great backcourts can equal a long run in March.

Unranked Homer Pick, UCLA Bruins: They are just outside of the top-25, and looking past a bad, 4-game losing streak at the start of the year, the Bruins have gone 22-5.  They’ve got talented guards and one of the best frontcourts in the country.  Forwards Tyler Honeycutt and Reeves Nelson can flatout score and are long and incredibly athletic.  Freshman Josh Smith is a rare true center in college hoops.  He’s 6’10” and 300 pounds with soft hands, good post moves, and a refined post game.  He’s gotten better every game this year and presents a matchup problem for virtually every team the Bruins face.  Plus, coach Ben Howland has made three Final Fours, so he seems to know what he’s doing as well.

--from Adam