Purists Never Fear, the Spurs Bring Back Team Basketball

In an era of the NBA where Closers are en vogue, big threes are the new model, and announcers preview games by saying “Kobe and the Lakers come to Miami to take on LeBron and the Heat,” The San Antonio Spurs are going off script.  They share the ball, the credit, and are winning every single time they take the court.  Apparently they didn’t get the memo. 

Sure each team in the NBA has a method, but the Spurs have a science, or if you prefer an artistry about them.  

The Heat alternately hand the ball to LeBron or D-Wade and say “go score” while  the other mega-star watches with mild interest waiting for his turn to shoot.   The Thunder fall prey to Russell Westbrook’s hot and cold temperament where he may in fact shoot the ball 5 times in a row no matter the degree of difficulty or how open his teammates may be.  It’s no surprise Westbrook’s idol is Kobe Bryant, because anyone watching the Lakers this year saw Kobe play his share of hero ball as Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum tripped over each other in the paint. 

The Spurs meanwhile are simply a machine, every cog with its purpose, and no mechanism goes unused.  Tony Parker comes off of a Tim Duncan pick, sambas into the lane, and finds Matt Bonner in the corner to knock down a wide open three.  Ginobli Euro Steps into the paint only to pause and scoop the ball to Danny Green for an open layup.  Duncan studies the defense from the high post, only to laser a pass to a cutting Tiago Splitter for an easy two points. 

Now Bonner, Splitter, and Green are not household names, nor are Kawhi Leonard, Gary Neal, or Boris Diaw- but these are precisely the players that make the Spurs the best team in the NBA.  Sure Duncan, Parker, and Ginobli set the table, there can be no disputing that, but the unselfishness of the Spurs great players allows their role players to flourish. 

Watching any Laker, Thunder, or Heat game you can see a look of shock on respective role players’ faces when they get the ball late in the shot clock as they try to hot potato the ball back to one of the stars that “should be shooting.”  Ramon Sessions throws an errant pass desperately looking for Kobe who is double teamed, Kendrick Perkins hurls a panicked hook shot at the hoop, Mike Miller stumbles into the lane and travels, none ready for their moment because they weren’t supposed to get that ball at that time.

This is why the Spurs are great.  There is no “supposed to” with them.  The open man is the most dangerous one for San Antonio and he is the man expected to punish the defense.   Paraphrasing the late great Bruce Lee, the greatest style is no style, and the Spurs seem to follow this axiom to the letter. 

Watching San Antonio is as close to a spiritual experience as basketball can be.  No agendas, no ego, just pure beautiful basketball, a team of individuals united moving together toward a common goal unencumbered by the limits of stardom, status, or roles.  

Quick and Dirty NBA First Round Predictions

I'm in a time crunch folks, I'm going to get my marriage license this morning, but that doesn't mean I've forgotten the most important thing, the NBA Playoffs:

(1) Chicago Bulls V. (8) Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are athletic and deep, but they just don't have enough offensive punch to last in this series.  They'll compete and these games will be basketball played the right way: team defense, sharing the ball, good effort.  The Bulls just play that style better.  Chicago in 5.

(2) Miami Heat V. (7) New York Knicks

This should be a lot of fun.  Talent all over the court.  Carmelo Anthony has been arguably the best player in the league over the second half of the season, and Tyson Chandler should really dominate the boards and challenge Lebron and DWade at the hoop.  Still, There's nobody that impacts the game as profoundly as James, and I think he's on a mission this year.  Heat in 6.

(3) Indiana Pacers V. (6) Orlando Magic

It's simple, there's just no way Orlando does anything without Dwight Howard.  Indiana gets a free pass into the second round.  Pacers in 4.

(4) Boston Celtics V. (5) Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks did it again! Piled up wins in the regular season only to be bounced by a poised, smarter team in the postseason.  The Celtics defense has been stifling since the all star break and the emergence of Avery Bradley has made a big impact.  Celtics in 6.

(1) San Antonio Spurs V. (8) Utah Jazz

Things didn't turn out well for the Spurs last year when they achieved the top seed, but I don't see that happening again.  With Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson the Jazz have the size to bother the Spurs, and should steal a game or two at home, but they won't win the series.  Spurs in 5. 

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder V. (7) Dallas Mavericks

The Thunder are no longer an inexperienced playoff team, and I think Dallas is on its last legs for this year.  The Thunder will run them out of the gym and the series early.  Thunder in 5.

(3) LA Lakers V. (6) Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are the type of team that could bother LA.  Their young, deep, and athletic, but they don't have a go to scorer which matters in the playoffs, and they will struggle in the more half-court style of the postseason.  Denver also has no match for Bynum and Gasol, but who does?  Kobe is rested and the Lakers finally have speed at point guard to counteract the likes of Ty Lawson.  It will be a struggle but the Lakers win.  Lakers in 6.  

(4) Memphis Grizzlies V. (5) LA Clippers

This is the best series of the first round maybe along with the Heat-Knicks.  The Grizzlies are really tough inside with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, but the Clips counter with Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin.  Rudy Gay has no match on the Clippers, but Chris Paul is the best player in the series.  Then there are countless good role players on both sides: Nick Young, Caron Butler, Mo Williams and Randy Foye for LA.  OJ Mayo, Mike Conley, Tony Allen, and Marreese Speights for the Grizzlies.  I Might be nuts here but I think Super-Stars are the difference in the playoffs, so I'll take Chris Paul to find a way.  Clippers in 6. 

2011 NBA Playoffs: First Round Picks

#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers

Indiana doesn’t even have what you would call a "puncher's chance" in this series.  The Pacers don’t do anything exceedingly well, and they don’t have major star power to carry them through tough stretches.  A lack of experience is the only knock on the Bulls, but at least they made the playoffs last year, and new Bull Carlos Boozer brings a fair share of postseason familiarity as well.  Most of Indiana’s roster has never even appeared in a playoff game.  While the Pacers are a young and athletic team with some decent talent—Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, Darren Collison—those players aren’t household names for a reason.  I look for Chicago to clamp down defensively and make quick work of the over-matched Pacers.

Prediction: Bulls in 4

#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers and Heat play a similar brand of basketball: up-tempo, transition-oriented, lots of athletes on the floor.  You can look at those similarities in one of two ways.  Playing a similar style means either the 76ers will matchup well against Miami, or it will play right into the Heat’s hands.  I tend to think that when two teams play the same style, the better team is obviously more adept at that particular style.  The Heat are clearly more talented than the 76ers, and letting LeBron James and Dwyane Wade out in transition is deadly for any opponent.  The 76ers are in a conundrum because they won’t be able to score in a half-court game, and if they try to speed the pace up, Miami might run them off the floor.  Philly just doesn’t have the type of personnel that can give the Heat problems.  Elton Brand is a decent low post scorer, but at only 6’8” and getting on in years, he won’t be too much of a handful for Chris Bosh, Joel Anthony, or Zydrunas Ilgauskas.  Outside of Brand, the 76ers have virtually no one capable of punishing the Heat where they’re weak, in the post.  Andre Iguodala is a great athlete, but he doesn’t have a jumper or a mid-range game.  Ditto for Thaddeus Young.  I think Philly might squeak one game out in this series because they will have the athletes to guard James and Wade.  Ultimately though, they just won’t have enough scoring punch to keep up with the James gang.

Prediction: Heat in 5

#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks

This is definitely the East’s most intriguing first round matchup, if only for the cumulative star power of both teams.  Boston’s newfound weakness in the post has been well documented, but the Knicks don’t really have the personnel to exploit it.  Sure Amare Stoudemire is a great player, but he’s a finesse guy who doesn’t rebound or defend particularly well.  Outside of Stoudemire, the Knicks have been throwing out Shelden Williams, Shawne Williams, and Ronnie Turiaf to fill the pivot positions.  Combined those three players average just 14 points and 10 rebounds per game.  Even Boston will be able to pound this team in the paint.  Chauncey Billups will make his share of big shots, but he won’t be able to defend the much quicker Rajon Rondo.  Carmelo Anthony will score, but Boston will make him take a lot of shots to get his points.  Ray Allen and Paul Pierce will more than offset the production of Anthony, Kevin Garnett should be able to check Stoudemire, and Rondo will outduel Billups.  Basically, the big four of Boston will at least match the Knicks' big three, and the Celtics' superior depth will take care of the rest.  New York has talent to be sure and could rob a game or two from Boston, but they just aren’t a complete enough team to win this series.

Prediction: Celtics in 6

#4 Orlando Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks

I don’t have a whole lot of love for either one of these teams, but Orlando should be favored in this matchup.  The Hawks have five good players—Joe Johnson, Al Horford, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, and Marvin Williams—but not a single great one.  Johnson is a star in name only; he wasn’t able to lead this Hawks squad to anything more than mediocrity all year.  While Horford is solid, he is going to be completely overmatched by Dwight Howard.  Howard will be the best player in this series by a mile, and his teammates are good enough to provide ample scoring support.  Horford and Josh Smith won’t be able to score inside, meaning Atlanta will have to rely increasingly on the three point shot.  Howard will control the boards and challenge every shot in the paint.  The Hawks also will suffer because they have essentially zero home court advantage.  This year it wasn’t uncommon for fans of the Lakers, Celtics, Magic or Heat to outnumber Hawks fans in Atlanta’s arena.  The Hawks may steal a game or two if Howard gets in foul trouble or if they get hot from the three point line.  In the end though, Howard is the best player in this series, and that will be the difference.

Prediction: Magic in 6

#1 San Antonio Spurs vs #8 Memphis Grizzlies

Losing All Star Rudy Gay for the season was the death blow for any big dreams the Grizzlies had.  Gay and Zach Randolph made for a dynamic forward duo that could score with anyone.  Now Randolph will have to shoulder most of the load, as the Grizzlies next highest scorer is point guard Mike Conley, who nets just 14 points per game.  OJ Mayo is a confounding player; he averaged 18 points per game through his first two seasons, but only 11 this year.  He needs to step up if Memphis wants to do anything.  The Spurs rested their veterans a ton down the stretch and still secured the number one seed out West.  They might not be as sharp as they would like, but they’ll be healthy and can play their way into a rhythm against the inferior Grizzlies.  Tim Duncan will see more minutes in the playoffs, although Marc Gasol will be a big body to compete with.  Tony Parker easily wins the point guard matchup against Conley.  Manu Ginobli has moved from his familiar sixth man role in previous years to the starting lineup this season and excelled.  He’s always big come playoff time, though his sprained elbow has him listed as doubtful for Game One.  He should be back at least by Game Three, and playing at home for the first two contests of the series the Spurs should be fine without him.  San Antonio has five guys that score in double figures—Duncan, Parker, Ginoblie, Richard Jefferson, and George Hill—and five more guys that play a significant role—DeJaun Blair, Tiago Splitter, Gary Neal, Matt Bonner, and Antonio McDyess.  The Grizzlies have similar depth but not nearly as much talent or experience.  Finally, Spurs' coach, Gregg Popovich, is as good as it gets in the NBA.  I can’t see the newbie Grizzlies taking even one game from the finely tuned Spurs.

Prediction: Spurs in 4

#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets

As a Laker fan, this was exactly the matchup I was hoping for in the first round.  Even if Andrew Bynum needed some extra rest, the Lakers could cruise through this series without him.  The Hornets' second best player, David West, recently went down for the year with an ACL tear.  West was their leading scorer, now Chris Paul, who averaged just 16 points per game during the year, takes that mantle.  Usually really talented point guards give the Lakers fits, but Paul hasn’t been fully healthy all year, and even if he goes crazy, he won’t have enough help to make this a series.  After Paul, the Hornets don’t have any one that scores more than 12 points per game.  That’s not going to get it done against the potent Lake Show.  Also, size is going to be a huge factor in this series.  The 6’9” Carl Landry and Emeka Okafor at 6’10” are the Hornets' starting big men.  They will be completely over-matched by the Lakers' pair of 7-footers in Pau Gasol and Bynum.  Throw in the versatile 6’10” Lamar Odom, and LA should absolutely dominate the paint.  We saw all year that the Lakers were the best team in the league if they were focused.  They’ll be focused for the playoffs and I think they’ll steamroll New Orleans.  And after all this I still haven't mentioned that the Lakers happen to have a guy named Kobe Bryant.

Prediction: Lakers in 4

#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trailblazers

All week I’ve been itching to see if this matchup would occur, and it has.  So many prognosticators have said that Portland has a really good shot to upset Dallas, and I agree.  Dallas and Portland split their four meetings during the year, however Dallas won twice when they had Caron Butler and the Blazers didn’t have newly acquired Gerald Wallace.  Since Butler went down and Wallace came aboard for Portland, the Blazers have beaten Dallas twice.  The thing that is so drastically different about the playoffs is that over the course of a seven-game series, teams are able to make adjustments and take away their opponents’ biggest strengths.  Teams have time to focus on just one opponent and really hone in on how to best approach that matchup.  Dallas has always thrived in the regular season because in one-game situations; they are good enough to outscore a lot of teams.  All this is a way of saying I think Portland has the personnel to really limit Dirk Nowitzki over the course of a series.  Having multiple long and athletic players to throw at Dirk is always important, and that’s exactly what the Blazers have.  Wallace, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Marcus Camby all bring different elements to the table, and all are capable of guarding Nowitzki.  They also have a great coach in Nate McMillan, who will have a sound gameplan in place.  If Nowitzki is limited or has to work a ton to get his points, Dallas will struggle.  The Mavs second leading scorer is aging sixth man Jason Terry, who is a streak shooter you can’t always rely on.  Beyond Terry and Dirk, ancient Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, and Peja Stojakovic join youngsters Rodrigue Beaubois and JJ Barea as the Mavs' main supporting players.  All those role players are either too limited by age or inexperience to be big factors in this series.  Another way of saying that is, Dirk Nowitzki might be the best player in this series, but Portland has the next three or four best players in LaMarcus Aldridge, Gerald Wallace, Wes Matthews, and Andre Miller.  Portland is much more athletic than Dallas on the wings with Wallace, Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and Rudy Fernandez matching up against Marion, Stojakovic and DeShawn Stevenson.  Inside, Aldridge, Wallace, and Camby will battle Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler, and Brendan Haywood to about an even draw.  Miller is certainly an old dog in this game, but he’ll be matched up with an even grayer beard in Kidd and should win that matchup all series.  Ultimately the superior athleticism, depth, and favorable matchups lead to Portland's upset of the playoff soft Mavericks.

Prediction: Trail Blazers in 6

#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Denver Nuggets

There’s no question that Denver became a better team after trading Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups.  The Nuggets are now deep, young, athletic, and unselfish.  Looking at the matchups in this series is really interesting.  Kendrick Perkins and Nene both are big-bodied players who aren’t afraid to bang in the paint and should have a great battle all series.  Perkins, Serge Ibaka, Nazr Mohammed, and Nick Collison will have their hands full battling Nene, Al Harrington, Danilo Gallinari, Kenyon Martin, and Chris Andersen in the post.  Denver also has an assortment of athletic and long wing players to throw at Kevin Durant.  Wilson Chandler, JR Smith, Gallinari, and Aaron Afflalo, if healthy, are all capable of checking Durant for stretches, though I would think Chandler will see the most time on him.  Russell Westbrook is a flatout star at point guard, but perhaps no team has as much of a fighting chance to slow him down as Denver.  Between Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton, the Nuggets have a ton of speed at point guard to defend Westbrook and make him work when Denver has the ball.  The Nuggets are the deeper team in this series as they can play up to ten players without much of a drop off.  The Thunder really only have eight main rotation guys, nine if you include Collison.  I love what the Nuggets have done this year, and I really enjoy the way they play.  In the end, though, I can’t pick against the Thunder because they have the two best players in the series—Westbrook and Durant.  The playoffs usually come down to who executes better in the half-court, and I give a slight edge there to OKC.

Prediction: Thunder in 7

--from Adam

Looking Forward to the NBA’s Stretch Run

With the All Star Weekend shortening last week’s slate of games, I’ve decided to break down what I’m looking for as we approach the postseason in lieu of my weekly Power Poll.

The All Star Game is over, and with less than 30 regular season games remaining for most teams, the NBA’s intensity is about to ratchet up a notch.  For those of you worried that your favorite team’s All Star will be tired from playing in Sunday’s game, don’t be.  The guys playing Sunday were the only NBA players who weren’t getting black out drunk for the entire weekend.  With that settled let’s discuss:

1. The Bulls Joining the League’s Elite

Joakim Noah will be back soon, I swear.  And when he’s back, the Bulls will be a truly scary team.  They have a certifiable superstar in Derrick Rose.  Not just a stat sheet stuffer, though he is that too, Rose presents an impossible matchup.  Nobody can stay in front of him, and you can’t sag off him like you would Rajon Rondo because Rose’s jumper has become a true weapon.  He makes the right play almost every time he has the ball.  Carlso Boozer is one of the top-10 power forwards in the game, a damn good player.  He’s great from mid-range and has a good back-to-the-basket arsenal.  He provides the Bulls with a reliable half court scoring option that they didn’t have last year.  One of the best three or four rebounders in the league, Noah is a tremendous athlete, defends the rim as well as anyone, and has an improving offensive game.  He also is the rare, talented player that also provides an energy boost whenever he’s on the floor.  Plus, he’s a nasty competitor and a winner—two National Championship titles at Florida.  Amidst Rose, Boozer, and Noah, you almost forget about Luol Deng, who quietly averages 18 points and 6 rebounds a game with excellent efficiency.  A smart player who stays within himself, Deng also leads the team in minutes per game.  The Bulls have one superstar in Rose and three star players, or very near it, in Boozer, Noah, and Deng.  Rose will get 25 points, Boozer 15-25, Deng will chip in 15-20, and Noah will snatch boards, block shots, and run the floor with abandon.  Each of the four players in that group provides a different element that you can count on every night.  Then consider a bench that features Taj Gibson, a second year-forward that’s very skilled offensively; Kyle Korver, sometimes a liability defensively but is one of the very best long distance shooters in the game; Ronnie Brewer, a tremendous athlete with a limited offensive game but an excellent defender with playoff experience; and Kurt Thomas, a rolling ball of rock hard muscle.  He’s not going to get off the ground, but you will not back him down in the post.  The Bulls bring every element you could want—experience, speed, length, offensive firepower, shooting, dribble penetration, athleticism—it’s all there.  And for me, the icing on the cake is that their head coach is Tom Thibodeau, the original architect of the great Celtics defense.  He has made the Bulls similarly tough to score against.  If Chicago runs up against Boston in the playoffs—a good possibility—Thibodeau will know everything Boston is going to do and will have the personnel to exploit it.  And since they run Boston’s defense, the Bulls will also frustrate the Heat as well, which has given Miami fits this year.

2. A Contender Making a Trade

Opposing All Stars, Now Teammates

Somebody will pull the trigger on a move.  It may not be a huge move, but it will be something significant to impact a rotation, change game plans, and affect chemistry.  Maybe the Lakers pursue a point guard, the Bulls or Celtics acquire Anthony Parker, or the Mavericks find some bench athleticism in exchange for Caron Butler’s expiring contract.  And maybe, just maybe, the Knicks can land Carmelo Anthony, though the more these teams negotiate without a deal, the more I think he might be stuck in Denver for the year.  He could go to New Jersey right now, but he doesn’t want to.  He wants to be a Knick, but New York doesn’t want to give away their whole roster for him.  I support the Knicks in that decision.  Anthony is very good, but between him and Amare Stoudemire you have two prolific scorers who don’t play much defense.  Anthony is a great singular talent, but is not worth the entire Knicks roster, especially when they might still be able to get him after the year in free agency.

Well, it looks like that Knick deal went through.  Denver ships Anthony to New York along with Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter, and Renaldo Balkman.  In return, the Nuggets get Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov,  a 2014 first-round draft pick from New York, and additional second round picks from Golden State.

3. The Heat Gelling

Get It Together

This is more of a hope than a prediction; I think it’s possible though.  They’ve been together for almost 60 games now, have been through the media circus, and have won a lot of games.  They’ve got to figure out a plan for half-court offense though.   The pick-and-roll game is their best answer with Dwyane Wade and LeBron James getting screens from Chris Bosh.  Since the big three bring a lot of the same elements to the table, you can’t just have them spread out and run a free flowing offense.  James and Wade just are not great spot-up shooters, and Bosh doesn’t thrive with his back to the hoop.  This means that all three guys need space to operate and be effective.  With the pick-and-roll, James/Wade will either get a driving lane to the hoop where they can finish or kick it out, or Bosh curling to the hoop for the finish or popping out to mid-range territory where he can shoot or drive past a slower defender.  The pick-and-roll also causes teams to help, switch, and make quick decisions on defense, so this could also lead to open looks for marksmen James Jones and Mike Miller.  Those two will have to make shots consistently for this team to succeed in playoffs.  Even if the Heat do all this effectively, they still sorely lack a true back-to-the-basket post player that can suck defenses in and create foul trouble for opponents.

4. The Lakers Recovering

The Black Mamba: Coiled and Ready to Strike

They’re 38-18, but if you’ve been reading headlines and watching TV, you’d think they were in danger of missing the playoffs.  I don’t want to discount all of their struggles lately—to be sure, they’ve looked lethargic, disinterested, slow, and lazy.  Only the slow part really worries me though because the other three are byproducts of mid-February NBA basketball for a team that’s been to the Finals three straight years.  They’ve played an astronomical number of games these past four years, and they just don’t have the mental energy to care about a mid-season game in Charlotte.  But they are slow, and that could hurt, especially on defense.  Ron Artest looks like his feet are stuck in the mud at times, and Derek Fisher can’t stay in front of anyone.  That’s worrisome with the likes of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Rondo and others lurking in the playoffs.  Still, as their only glaring weakness, it’s no different than last year.  In fact, with the addition of Steve Blake, the point guard position has actually gotten slightly better than last year’s team.  Matt Barnes is also an excellent defender who has been out injured, but he should be back in the next couple of weeks.  The All Star break came at the perfect time for the Lakers, allowing them to charge their batteries, take a break from the grind, and come back refocused on refining their playoff gameplan over these last 30 games.  Andrew Bynum is healthy (please knock on nearest piece of wood), Pau Gasol can be great when fed the ball, and Kobe Bryant looked like he was 25 again in the All Star game.  Lamar Odom has played at an elite level all year, and I look for Shannon Brown to get his game back in the closing segment of the season.  Los Angeles is still the most dangerous half-court offense in the league with the best size in the league, the best coach, and the best playoff performer.  Sure, Los Angeles has a few issues, but I think most any team in the league would trade their set of problems for the Lakers’.

5. The Spurs Coasting

A Familiar Sight for the Rest of the Season

This is not coasting in the sense of mailing it in—I assure Gregg Popovich will never let that happen—what I mean is that with a six-game lead over their nearest competitor, San Antonio will be able to rest some key guys down the stretch.  The Spurs have only 26 games left, and at 46-10, would only have to go 14-12 to finish with 60 wins, a simple task for this highly efficient, well-oiled machine of a club.  If they can win say ten of their first fourteen games coming off the break, they should glide to the West’s #1 seed.  That’s great news for Spurs fans that have worried all year about a crash from their aging roster.  Popovich has done a miraculous job managing his veteran’s minutes all season.  By playing eleven guys consistently, nobody on the team exceeds 33 minutes a game.  Tim Duncan is putting in a career low 29 minutes per contest.  Thus, an already well rested Spurs team should be able to take entire games off down the stretch, and could easily have nothing to play for the 7 -10 games.  Rest always trumps rust for a veteran unit like the Spurs who can play their way into form against whoever they face as the #8 seed.

6. Playoffs Baby

We’ve talked a bit about the playoffs already, but now let’s dig deep.  I really believe these upcoming playoffs could be the best we’ve seen in years.  Yes, the East will have a few stinkers in the first round with the 76ers and Pacers currently filling the seventh and eighth spots respectively.  No way can either of those teams run with Boston, Miami, or Chicago in a seven game series.  But after that it gets really good out.  The Knicks are currently slotted in the sixth spot, and while they won’t beat any of the East’s top teams, they play exciting basketball and Madison Square Garden belongs in the postseason.  It’s just a great venue, and having the Knicks back in the party will be a fun element we’ve been missing in recent years.  The 4 vs. 5 matchup will almost certainly be the Magic and the Hawks squaring off, a more competitive series than people might think.  The Magic will be favored because they’ve made deep playoff runs the past two years and have the most dominant player in the series, Dwight Howard.  Yet, Orlando has serious deficiencies.  Chief among them are that they really have no second star to take the burden off Howard and they rely way too much on the three ball.  Atlanta may not be good enough to exploit these weaknesses, but they could push the series to six or seven games.  Then, I think we get Boston vs. Orlando and Chicago vs. Miami in the East Semis.  In the first matchup you get two teams that know and hate each other, and have faced off the past two years in the playoffs.  The latter matchup pits the young gun teams that don’t have a rivalry yet but could develop one right now.  With Rose and Noah at point guard and center, the Bulls are poised to exploit the Heat’s two biggest positions of weakness, and as mentioned, Thibodeau has been a huge headache for James throughout his career.  I think Boston might make quick work of Orlando again, but the Bulls and Heat could go to seven.  Then we would get either Heat vs. Boston, which everyone wants, or Bulls vs. Boston, which would also be great.  (See the 2009 Celtics-Bulls playoff series that went to seven games where only three of those games weren’t decided in overtime.)

Next let’s stroll over to the Western Conference.  Perhaps there aren’t as many elite teams in the West as in the East—I think Boston, Chicago, and Miami are all serious championship contenders—but its a much deeper conference.  The team currently seeded one spot out of the West playoffs, the Grizzlies, are four games over .500; the East’s current eighth seed, the Pacers, is six games under.  As it stands right now, the West matchups would be Spurs vs. Jazz as the 1 vs. 8 that pits Deron Williams, Paul Milsap, and Al Jefferson against Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli, and Duncan…not bad; Mavericks vs. Nuggets, the 2 vs. 7, though this will be subject to change for Anthony-less Denver; Lakers vs. Hornets, 3 vs. 6, despite the disparity in talent and experience, Chris Paul represents a huge matchup issue for LA that probably negates a possible sweep; and Thunder vs. Blazers, 4 vs. 5 matchup, no way the banged up Blazers can steal a series from the likes of Durant and Westbrook.  Then in the West Semis I would predict Spurs vs. Thunder and Lakers vs. Mavericks.  The Thunder-Spurs matchup would be great much like last year’s Thunder-Lakers series was: A young, up-and-coming team with two super stars would take on the epitome of a veteran squad with a deep and balanced attack.  I think the Spurs are too good inside, too deep, and matchup too respectably at point guard—Parker can stay with Westbrook at least a little—for the Thunder to take the series.  The Mavericks are playing well, and will likely have the home court advantage over LA, but they have nobody to guard Kobe or Gasol and I don’t think they could match the Lakers’ size advantage, even with Tyson Chandler.  That would set up an epic Lakers-Spurs West Final.

Let’s hope we can get a Boston, Miami, LA, and San Antonio Final Four.  That would guarantee as good as any Finals pairings in recent memory, great ratings for the NBA, and great games for you and me.

--from Adam

(images from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)

NBA Midseason Report: The Halfees

If you've fallen victim to the lethargy that is the NBA season, perhaps you need a little pick-me-up.  To help you coast into the second half of the season with some pep in your step, enter The Halfees, where I dole out some meaningless awards and talk about whatever else enters my mind.

Best Team: San Antonio Spurs

No team has really touched the Spurs in terms of consistency this season.  The Spurs are ready to play each and every night.  A big part of their success is that none of their big three–Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobli–is playing more than 33 minutes per game.  In fact, Duncan is playing a career low 29 minutes, keeping him fresh for the grindingly long season.  Five guys average in double figures, and nine guys score at least 7 points per game.  If they can keep up this same level of play in the second half of the year, they could have a shot at 70 wins.

Worst Team: Cleveland Cavaliers

Think they're chanting "first to worst" at Cavalier games?  They don't have much else to shout about with the King holding court in Miami.  This team has pretty much nothing left on its roster.  But you know what?  They may get the first pick in next year's draft.  Then they can draft him, almost win a title, and watch him walk to a bigger market in seven years time.  And also, don't think I forgot about you, Washington Wizards.  The runner-up for this category goes 0-19 on the road: great toughness fellas, really terrific effort.

Best Player: LeBron James

I hate it, but I think my credibility would be shot if I argued this point.  James has a very talented team rolling, and there’s no question that his skill set has broader horizons than any other player in the game.  He’s a wonderful passer, a prolific driver, a decent shooter, and the best athlete in the world.  Surrounded by Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, James has the tools to be transcendent, but it won’t matter until he wins in the playoffs.

Most Important Players: Chris Paul and Dwight Howard

Neither of these players' respective teams is anywhere but the lottery without the services of its superstar.

Most Improved Player: Raymond Felton

There are plenty of other ways I could go here: Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Russell Westbrook, and so on.  Felton's progress though has surprised me the most, and he's been the most impactful.  He’s become the second best player on a good Knicks team that is jockeying for 4-6 seeds out East.  Felton has always had talent, and now in an offense-friendly system, he’s averaging 19 points per game, up from 14 on his career.  His assists are up from his career average of 7 per game to personal best 9.

Best Rookie: Blake Griffin

It’s not only his averages of 22 points and 13 rebounds that make him the best rookie and one of the best players in the League.  It’s his astounding, "My God, did you see that!?" athleticism and surprisingly developed offensive game.  He blocks shots, handles the ball, is an excellent passer, and has a deft touch around the rim.  He’s not your typical raw second-year player.  He has the full toolbox right now, and he’s going to dominate for a long time.

Best Player on a Bad Team: Kevin Love

Griffin would win this award, but since I gave him the Best Rookie title, I'm feeling the love here.  Bad pun.  Love is averaging 21 points and 16 rebounds for a woeful scrappy T'Wolves squad.  They're somewhere near 20 games under .500, but nobody's really counting anymore.  You certainly can't blame Love for his team's lack of success.

Best Analyst: Charles Barkley

How a man who was caught soliciting a prostitute no less than a year ago is comfortable indiscriminately spewing criticism at refs, players, and any and everybody else is a true mystery.  It also makes Barkley the funniest and most entertaining talking head in the sports universe.

Most Repulsive Miami Heat Moment: LeBron's "What Should I Do?" Nike ad

What should you do, LeBron?  You should shut up and let us forget what an ass you are.

Best Zen Master Moments: Phil Jackson says Kobe Bryant is screwing up the Lakers, Phil Jackson says Erik Spoelstra may get fired

Jackson accusses Bryant of breaking up the Lakers' rhythm by shooting too much, then denies it the next day.  Jackson also hints that Pat Riley may have to take over the Heat, then glosses over that in a later interview and praises Spoelstra as a great young coach.  I don't know what he's trying to do, but I gotta trust the Master.

--from Adam