Veteran experience versus youth: that’s how this series will be framed. Though that characterization isn’t off base, it might be a bit overstated. Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, and Peja Stojakvic have certainly seen their share of wars in the playoffs, and though some have even made it to the Finals, none has a ring.
Meanwhile the Thunder boasts two 22-year-old superstars, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. James Harden and Serge Ibaka, the Thunder’s third- and fourth-leading scorers, respectively, are both 21. Yes they’re young, but these guys have played basketball their whole lives and have played in some pretty big NBA games in their young careers.
Oklahoma City’s six-game war against the defending and eventual champion Lakers last year was about as good an experience as a young team could ask for. Durant and company played toe-to-toe with the best team of the NBA’s last four years, very nearly beat them. This year they dispatched a very talented Nuggets team, and then defeated a Memphis team with a completely different style in a bruising seven games. Kendrick Perkins also brings loads of championship experience to the table, having won a title and battled deep into the post-season the past three years with Boston.
Yes, they have less experience than Dallas, but experience never once put the ball in the hoop. Talent does that, and OKC is loaded with talent.
The main problem for Dallas is who guards Kevin Durant. It can’t be Nowitzki because (1) he’s not athletic enough, and (2) he’s the Mavericks superstar who can’t afford to wear himself out on defense. If you’re thinking Peja could do the job, stop reading right now and go back to watching Desperate Housewives; you know nothing about sports. Shawn Marion is an option I guess, but he isn’t near the athlete he once was. And at only 6’7”, he will give up 3 or 4 inches to Durant, a man with a lethal jump shot. The only other option on the roster is Corey Brewer who’s averaged only 4 minutes per game thus far in the playoffs.
A bigger problem, if you can believe it, is how will the Mavs stop Russell Westbrook? Jason Kidd is 17 years older than Westbrook and might be the league’s least athletic point guard. Westbrook will live in the lane in this series and find dunks and layups for his self, Ibaka, and Perkins, and three’s for Harden, Durant, and Daequan Cook. JJ Barea is a quick, young player, but he doesn’t have the size, strength, or acceleration to stick anywhere near Westbrook. Terry better not draw the Westbrook assignment because like Dirk he can’t afford to get worn out defensively, nor could he handle the assignment athletically.
On the other end of the floor, if there is one player in the world that can make Dirk work for his points, it’s Durant. At 6’10” and with insanely long arms, he can bother Nowitzki’s jumper like few others can. He also has the quickness and speed of a shooting guard so Dirk won’t be able to take him off the dribble. Serge Ibaka is also athletic enough to check him, and Kendrick Perkins will be way too much for Nowitzki if he decides to move down low in the post.
The Mavs should have the edge in terms of bench production with glorified starter Jason Terry, who plays the second most minutes of any Maverick player. He has to be a consistent scorer in this series, because if not, the Mavs may not have enough punch to keep up with the superstar duo of Durant and Westbrook, who have combined to score 53 points per game thus far in the playoffs.
At the same time, the Thunder also has a number of good options to defend Terry, the Mavs’ second best offensive option. Westbrook could certainly handle the duties, as could Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, and reserve guards Daequan Cook and Eric Maynor. Every single one of those defenders is bigger, longer, and more athletic than Terry.
I’ve talked a lot about matchups, and while I believe that’s an important aspect of the game, how well each team executes their gameplan is also vital. On paper, the Lakers had huge matchup advantages against Dallas, but the Mavs executed to perfection, working every small hole in the LA armor until it was a gaping chasm.
The Mavericks share the ball, they shoot the lights out from three, and they’re deep. Nine men have gotten regular minutes in these playoffs for Dallas, and only Nowitzki plays anywhere close to 40 minutes per game. You can argue that after Dirk, it’s hard to count on a sure second scorer, but in part that’s by design. Dallas’ number one option is Nowitzki; their number two option is the open man. Kidd, Stojakovic, Terry, and Nowitzki are all lethal when their open from three point range, and if they get hot, they can bury a team quickly.
Meanwhile, the Thunder are built largely on athleticism, tempo, and size. Russell Westbrook is the most athletic point guard in the league outside maybe Derrick Rose. Ibaka is a 6’10” shot blocking machine (4 per game in the playoffs) that can also run like a gazelle. Perkins, Nick Collison, and Nazr Mohammed round out a long and tough, though offensively limited, post rotation. Durant is also 6’10”, and much like Nowitzki, nearly impossible to guard.
Unfortunately for Dallas, I think the Thunder are so much more athletic and so much stronger/physical in the post that even with great execution they’ll be in trouble. Yes the Mavs got innumerable wide open looks against LA, but the Lakers are a slower team that played lazy and flat. The Thunder are the most athletic and energetic team in the league; that will happen when your top four players are all under 22 years of age.
I feel like athletically the Thunder have the ability to challenge everything Dallas wants to do, and on the flip side Dallas has virtually no answer for the two guys OKC relies on most. Throw in the fact that the Thunder should dominate the boards (they’re 7 rebounds per game better than Dallas on average), win the transition game, and has the younger legs. Too much weighs against Dallas.
I was wrong about the Mavericks last series, but against the similarly veteran Lakers, they were able to find open shots, get in the lane, and make transition baskets. I can’t see that happening against the most athletic team in the league, the Thunder.
The Mavs will have home court and will have games where they shoot the lights out, but in the words of Charles Barkley, “You never live by the three. In the long run you only die by it.” The Thunder are simply too physically imposing for Dallas to win this series.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
Meanwhile the Thunder boasts two 22-year-old superstars, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. James Harden and Serge Ibaka, the Thunder’s third- and fourth-leading scorers, respectively, are both 21. Yes they’re young, but these guys have played basketball their whole lives and have played in some pretty big NBA games in their young careers.
Oklahoma City’s six-game war against the defending and eventual champion Lakers last year was about as good an experience as a young team could ask for. Durant and company played toe-to-toe with the best team of the NBA’s last four years, very nearly beat them. This year they dispatched a very talented Nuggets team, and then defeated a Memphis team with a completely different style in a bruising seven games. Kendrick Perkins also brings loads of championship experience to the table, having won a title and battled deep into the post-season the past three years with Boston.
Yes, they have less experience than Dallas, but experience never once put the ball in the hoop. Talent does that, and OKC is loaded with talent.
The main problem for Dallas is who guards Kevin Durant. It can’t be Nowitzki because (1) he’s not athletic enough, and (2) he’s the Mavericks superstar who can’t afford to wear himself out on defense. If you’re thinking Peja could do the job, stop reading right now and go back to watching Desperate Housewives; you know nothing about sports. Shawn Marion is an option I guess, but he isn’t near the athlete he once was. And at only 6’7”, he will give up 3 or 4 inches to Durant, a man with a lethal jump shot. The only other option on the roster is Corey Brewer who’s averaged only 4 minutes per game thus far in the playoffs.
A bigger problem, if you can believe it, is how will the Mavs stop Russell Westbrook? Jason Kidd is 17 years older than Westbrook and might be the league’s least athletic point guard. Westbrook will live in the lane in this series and find dunks and layups for his self, Ibaka, and Perkins, and three’s for Harden, Durant, and Daequan Cook. JJ Barea is a quick, young player, but he doesn’t have the size, strength, or acceleration to stick anywhere near Westbrook. Terry better not draw the Westbrook assignment because like Dirk he can’t afford to get worn out defensively, nor could he handle the assignment athletically.
On the other end of the floor, if there is one player in the world that can make Dirk work for his points, it’s Durant. At 6’10” and with insanely long arms, he can bother Nowitzki’s jumper like few others can. He also has the quickness and speed of a shooting guard so Dirk won’t be able to take him off the dribble. Serge Ibaka is also athletic enough to check him, and Kendrick Perkins will be way too much for Nowitzki if he decides to move down low in the post.
The Mavs should have the edge in terms of bench production with glorified starter Jason Terry, who plays the second most minutes of any Maverick player. He has to be a consistent scorer in this series, because if not, the Mavs may not have enough punch to keep up with the superstar duo of Durant and Westbrook, who have combined to score 53 points per game thus far in the playoffs.
At the same time, the Thunder also has a number of good options to defend Terry, the Mavs’ second best offensive option. Westbrook could certainly handle the duties, as could Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, and reserve guards Daequan Cook and Eric Maynor. Every single one of those defenders is bigger, longer, and more athletic than Terry.
I’ve talked a lot about matchups, and while I believe that’s an important aspect of the game, how well each team executes their gameplan is also vital. On paper, the Lakers had huge matchup advantages against Dallas, but the Mavs executed to perfection, working every small hole in the LA armor until it was a gaping chasm.
The Mavericks share the ball, they shoot the lights out from three, and they’re deep. Nine men have gotten regular minutes in these playoffs for Dallas, and only Nowitzki plays anywhere close to 40 minutes per game. You can argue that after Dirk, it’s hard to count on a sure second scorer, but in part that’s by design. Dallas’ number one option is Nowitzki; their number two option is the open man. Kidd, Stojakovic, Terry, and Nowitzki are all lethal when their open from three point range, and if they get hot, they can bury a team quickly.
Meanwhile, the Thunder are built largely on athleticism, tempo, and size. Russell Westbrook is the most athletic point guard in the league outside maybe Derrick Rose. Ibaka is a 6’10” shot blocking machine (4 per game in the playoffs) that can also run like a gazelle. Perkins, Nick Collison, and Nazr Mohammed round out a long and tough, though offensively limited, post rotation. Durant is also 6’10”, and much like Nowitzki, nearly impossible to guard.
Unfortunately for Dallas, I think the Thunder are so much more athletic and so much stronger/physical in the post that even with great execution they’ll be in trouble. Yes the Mavs got innumerable wide open looks against LA, but the Lakers are a slower team that played lazy and flat. The Thunder are the most athletic and energetic team in the league; that will happen when your top four players are all under 22 years of age.
I feel like athletically the Thunder have the ability to challenge everything Dallas wants to do, and on the flip side Dallas has virtually no answer for the two guys OKC relies on most. Throw in the fact that the Thunder should dominate the boards (they’re 7 rebounds per game better than Dallas on average), win the transition game, and has the younger legs. Too much weighs against Dallas.
I was wrong about the Mavericks last series, but against the similarly veteran Lakers, they were able to find open shots, get in the lane, and make transition baskets. I can’t see that happening against the most athletic team in the league, the Thunder.
The Mavs will have home court and will have games where they shoot the lights out, but in the words of Charles Barkley, “You never live by the three. In the long run you only die by it.” The Thunder are simply too physically imposing for Dallas to win this series.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
--from Adam
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