BCS Bowl Game Predictions

Rose Bowl: (#5) Wisconsin Badgers vs. (#3) TCU Horned Frogs

Adam: This game is all about how TCU's highly touted defense deals with Wisconsin's punishing ground attack.  Wisconsin pushed everybody around in Big Ten play this year, even great defenses like Ohio State's and Iowa's.  TCU's marquee win came against a now three-loss Utah team.  I don't think TCU has the size up front–they average 270 pounds across their defensive line while the Badgers' offensive linemen average 320 pounds–to reign in the Badger rushing attack.  Wisconsin's quarterback Scott Tolzien is the most accurate passer the Badgers have had in years, and with the running game cruising along, he will have time to find a group of nice targets.  I think the Badgers are legitimately in the conversation as the best team in college football.

Prediction: Wisconsin 31 – TCU 20

Eric: Without a doubt, two of the best teams in all of college football have been matched up here.  There aren't a lot of glowing deficiencies on either team.  Both teams average over 40 points per game on offense and give up 20 or less on defense.  Both teams feature punishing running games and it will be interesting to see which team's rushing attack gains ground against the stout defense it will face.  I give the edge to Wisconsin's big boys up front going up against TCU's untraditional 4-2-5 defense.  Even with an undefeated season, we need to look at who they played coming out of a non-BCS conference.  The biggest of TCU's non-Mountain West wins came in the season opener at home against an Oregon State team that was ranked #24 at the time, but finished the season 5-7.  They have not seen anyone like this talented, senior-laden Badger team and will be overmatched for the roses.

Prediction: Wisconsin 36 – TCU 34

Fiesta Bowl: (UR) Connecticut Huskies vs. (#7) Oklahoma Sooners

A: The only way this game is competitive is if OU doesn't want to be there and UConn plays inspired football because everyone thinks they will get blown out.  Personally, I think Oklahoma will be amped to go out and shake off what has been a slightly disappointing year.

Prediction: Oklahoma 38 – UConn 14

E: Other than the idea of computers deciding who gets to play for a National Title, my next biggest quibble with the BCS is these automatic tie-ins.  Who wouldn't want to see a rematch of one of the greatest bowl games ever, the 2007 Fiesta Bowl?  Let this year's #10 ranked team, Boise State, come here and face off against Oklahoma instead of playing in some lame-o, pre-Christmas bowl.  Give me a break.  Plus, the four-loss Huskies didn't even have to win a Conference Championship Game.  The sports world's East coast bias raises its ugly head once again.

Prediction: Oklahoma 48 – UConn 13

Orange Bowl: (#13) Virginia Tech Hokies vs. (#4) Stanford Cardinal

A: Virginia Tech has won eleven straight games after starting the season with two crushing loses.  Stanford has been good all year and only lost to #2-ranked Oregon.  Andrew Luck will be the difference in this game as he will outduel Tyrod Taylor.  Virginia Tech's rushing attack may keep this close, but ultimately Luck will be the best player on the field.

Prediction: Stanford 27 – Virginia Tech 20

E: Even though there are more one-loss teams deserving to go to a big bowl, I'm satisfied with the two-loss Hokies' body of work.  They went 8-0 in their conference, which includes a win in the ACC Conference Championship Game.  Stanford is excellent on both sides of the ball and beat everyone on their schedule save for the team playing in the National Title Game, Oregon.  I look for the Cardinal to keep rolling.

Prediction: Stanford 24 – Virginia Tech 20

Sugar Bowl: (#8) Arkansas Razorbacks vs. (#6) Ohio State Buckeyes

A: Ohio State will be eager to shake off the bad press they've been getting lately, and Arkansas needs a marquee win to continue building their program.  I've been impressed with Arkansas every time I've seen them this year, and I think they have the athletes to matchup with the Buckeyes.  Then it will come down to the quarterbacks, and I like Ryan Mallett more than Terrelle Pryor.

Prediction: Arkansas 30 – Ohio State 27

E: Terrelle Pryor and his buds have been getting a lot of publicity the last few days for all the wrong reasons.  I look for the Razorbacks to be the more focused team in this game and say that Ryan Mallett will do something he never could have done had he not transferred from Michigan, beat Ohio State.

Prediction: Arkansas 33 – Ohio State 27

BCS National Championship Game: (#2) Oregon Ducks vs. (#1) Auburn Tigers

A: This should be a great one, and I really have no idea who will win.  Cam Newton seems to tip the scales toward Auburn for most people, but I'll go with Chip Kelly, who I think is a better coach than Gene Chizik.  Oregon's pace gives everyone trouble, and I think Auburn's biggest weakness, their secondary, will be exposed.  Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley will have something to say about the outcome of this one, but I'll bet even he gets worn down by the Ducks' frenetic pace.  Newton will put up plenty of points, but I think the Ducks will take the ball away a few times and that will be the difference.

Prediction: Oregon 48 – Auburn 39

E: We know all about these explosive offenses so it's going to be who's defense slows the other team down just enough.  Sorry Duck fans, but Cam Newton's one man wrecking crew will not be stopped.

Prediction: Auburn 45 – Oregon 38

This BCS Mess

Can you feel it friends?  Can you feel it deep in your bones, deep in that special portion of your stomach reserved for beer, Cheez-Its, and assorted deep fried goodness?  We are hurtling headlong toward another college football season sure to end in confusion, anarchy, dispute, disappointment; pick your word, so long as that word is not "resolution."

Building him up so we can tear him down

Wait a minute, you say.  Auburn and Oregon are both undefeated and from major conferences, if they stay unbeaten then they will square off for the national title.  Problem solved, BCS vindicated…but wait.  Auburn's Cam Newton, the single most important player in college football, is now shrouded in suspicion as allegations about receiving improper benefits have drawn the interest and ire of the NCAA.  We may well be watching a player who is ineligible according to NCAA rules, meaning that even if Auburn wins the championship this year, they could very well have to vacate this season's results in a year or two when the NCAA finalizes its investigation.  It could also mean Newton, this year's runaway Heisman Trophy favorite, may have to forfeit the award, just as Reggie Bush did to his 2005 trophy this year.  After never having a Heisman winner give back his award, we are looking at two players possibly relinquishing the honor in the span of a few years.

Even with all this, it doesn't even approach the total point and problem with college football.  I personally guarantee that every team within a stone's throw of the National Championship game has a player or players that have received or are currently receiving improper benefits from somebody.  To single out Newton and say that he can't play is naïve, unfair, and unrealistic when college players are getting paid all over this country every day.

Enough of this moaning about one team.  Auburn may not get to the title game anyway, and then surely the BCS can bring forth the next best team to play for all the marbles.

Or not.  Check out the BCS rankings.  Oregon, sure, I get it, that team deserves to be number one: undefeated-check, major conference-check, transcendent talent-check.  Then let's remove Auburn from the discussion for the sake of clarity (as if such a word really exists in the lexicon of college football).  Here we have TCU, clearly deserving because they are undefeated and have annihilated their competition thus far.  But wait, they play in the puny Mountain West you say?  What about the team directly behind them in the standings that beat them in the Fiesta Bowl last year and is also undefeated, Boise State?  Hold it…Boise and TCU both play in watered down conferences while there are a slew of big conference, one loss teams behind them in the standings just as deserving of a title shot (Wisconsin, LSU, Stanford, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Ohio State).

Isn't the point of sport, of competition in general, to pit two sides against one another and decide the victor by the results we see on the field of play?  I don't remember the computer skills portion of any big football games in recent memory.  Do they have a typing contest at halftime?  Do they compete to see who can make an Excel spreadsheet the fastest?  If you can kick a field goal while using Facebook and Twitter, do you get 5 points?  Umm…

So why is a computer formula spitting out the two "best" football teams at the end of each year?  The only thing that can produce the two best teams is a process of elimination, not generated by a computer program, but decided on the football field.  The materials of the sport must determine the winner of the sport.  A field, 22 players, a ball, and some refs, no keyboard or monitor necessary.

This maddening chaos defies my limited descriptive abilities as a wordsmith.  Anything I say ultimately falls short of encapsulating the inadequacy of the BCS system.  So in the end, let me quote a man far more advanced in the art of befuddling rhetoric, former President George W. Bush, "Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice…you…you can't fool me again!"

--from Adam

(image from zimbio.com)

How About You, Lash LaRue: Hill 364's BCS Forecast

Ah the predictability of college football. We know who is going to be good.  Florida, Texas, Michigan, Penn State…wait…well we thought we knew but…ok, we don't know anything at all.  But what we can say is that this is the most wide open championship race in recent memory.  We can also say that there really is no team that appears head and shoulders above the rest of the field.

Oregon has looked explosive on offense, but how good is their defense?  And if they make the title game, how will four weeks off effect this rhythm offense?

Boise State again is dominating, but who are they really beating?  Ditto for TCU and Utah.

Auburn seems to be winning due to the immaculate singular talents of Cam Newton, but is he masking a host of other deficiencies for this Auburn squad?

Then there are the powerhouse programs that all have one loss: Alabama, Wisconsin, Stanford, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arizona, LSU, Missouri, Michigan State…yikes.  I think we are going to need Winston Wolfe to clean up this mess because we certainly won't have the clarity and sanity of a playoff to assist us in organizing this jumble.

Every team mentioned can make a compelling argument for their inclusion in the National Championship discussion, so how can we go about deciphering whose argument is tightest?  Thankfully, we have four more weeks of games to help winnow the wheat from the chaff, but we are still likely to have a logjam at the top.

To help categorize and organize, let's take a look at the true title contenders and their remaining schedules to help predict what might happen in this ultimately unpredictable sport.

Auburn: They have home games against Chattanooga and Georgia the next two weeks, which they will likely win.  But then comes the Iron Bowl at Alabama.  I don't see Auburn winning that game, and if they don't, 'Bama might replace them by going to the SEC title game against whatever drivel the SEC East coughs up.
Championship prediction: One loss will happen, but they will have a shot at redemption in the SEC title game.

Alabama: While many still believe this could be college football's best team, they have quite a hill to climb.  They go to #12 LSU next week and then host #21 Mississippi State.  In the last week of the season, they host top-ranked Auburn.  If they can run the table and win the SEC title game, they would have a compelling argument, even over an undefeated Oregon team.
Championship prediction: Two losses will be one too many.

Oregon: The most explosive team in college football, this team can outscore anyone, but they have some serious tests to pass.  They should beat Washington at home next week with relative ease, but a road trip to Cal and a home game against #15 Arizona will be tough.  Not to mention they go to bitter rival Oregon State to end the season.
Championship prediction: I see them losing a game.  Can they get in with one loss?

TCU and Utah: Both teams are undefeated and one will have a chance to rocket up the standings by the end of next week, as they matchup head-to-head in Utah on Saturday.  These are two dominant teams that play in a better conference than Boise State, so who knows how high they can climb by going undefeated, but they may be too far down in the polls and in the minds of voters to end up in the title game.
Championship prediction: Whoever wins this game will have a shot, and for some reason, I like TCU on the road over Utah.

Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Stanford, LSU, and Nebraska: There are other big conference, one loss teams, but these are the teams highest in the polls and have the best chance of rising to a top-2 BCS position.

Oklahoma has three tough road games left on their schedule and a likely showdown (if they make it) with Nebraska in the Big 12 title game.  That's too much to ask for a talented but not there yet team.

With Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, and Michigan left on Wisconsin's schedule, the safe money is that they will finish 11-1.  They'll probably have a higher BCS rating than of all these other one-loss teams especially considering a big home win over the Buckeyes and a road victory over Iowa.

Ohio State must still travel to Iowa, and I don't like their chances in that game with a poor passing quarterback. I think they finish 10-2 and outside of the title hunt.

Stanford has a tough slate remaining, but it will be favored in each game it plays.  However, even if they finish 11-1, they won't leapfrog Wisconsin or an undefeated Boise/TCU/Utah.

LSU has been winning by the skin of their teeth and hosts Alabama next week, then travels to Arkansas to end their season.  Even if they nab those two victories, they would have to win the SEC title game, and three major victories are too much to ask from a team that can't pass the ball.

Nebraska should win all their remaining games and would be at least even favorites against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship.  A win over OU would put them squarely in national contention.

So if you could follow that—I couldn't—we seem to have shaken out some contenders.  According to my forecast, the following power teams will finish with one loss: Wisconsin, Oregon, Auburn, Stanford, and Nebraska.  We will also have undefeated Boise St. and TCU.   We may well see Boise and TCU atop the BCS for a few weeks with other teams losing, but their strength of schedule may catch up with them as big powers collide in conference title games.

Boise St. will get leapt by TCU because TCU is creaming people, will beat Utah, and plays in a tougher conference.  TCU will secure a spot in the championship game.  Oregon will have a late loss that will drop them below Wisconsin, Auburn, and Nebraska, while Stanford may have too much ground to make up.  Nebraska and Auburn will benefit by having conference championship games, though only Auburn will win their title game.  That leaves Wisconsin and Auburn, and since the SEC rules the roost in college football and voters will get one more look at Newton, Auburn will go ahead of Wisconsin in the polls and meet TCU in the championship.  Got that?

Bottom Line: TCU v Auburn for all the marbles

--from Adam

Movin' and Groovin': A Take on the NCAA Conference Shake-Up

In the last two days there have been some moves shaking the the NCAA's conference structure to its very core.  The Big 12 is a dying animal, wheezing out its last breaths as Colorado hops ship to the Pac 10 and Nebraska defects for the Big 10.  Another big move is Boise State leaving the conference they have dominated for the past decade, the Western Athletic Conference, for a much more competitive conference, the Mountain West.  Now, anybody who knows anything about college sports knows that when it's all said and done with, these moves are all about the money.  And since football is the NCAA's number one money maker, for the purposes of this article, I will focus on how the shifting conferences affects the college football landscape.  More after the break...