The Bruins are Back

Accuse me of hyperbole, being a homer, whatever your choice of words, you’re probably right.  But I’m not wrong when I say the UCLA Bruins basketball program is back in a big way.  Weeks after a Sports Illustrated article came out exposing the seedy underbelly of the Ben Howland era, somehow the Bruins shook off the PR nightmare to land the best recruiting class in the country.

It used to be that getting a great recruiting class meant good things were coming in 2-3 years.  These days in college hoops the best players depart for the NBA as soon as possible, meaning many times the best players in the country are freshman.  And UCLA brought in a slew of “diaper dandies” culminating on Monday with the signing of big man Tony Parker. 

Parker joins other top recruits Shabazz Muhammad, Kyle Anderson, and Jordan Adams giving UCLA 4 of the top 40 rated freshman in this year’s crop.  Muhammad is the true gem of the class, rated as either the number 1 or 2 high school player in the country depending on whether you believe more in rivals.com or ESPN’s rankings.

Either way Muhammad brings athleticism, skill, and most importantly, creativity on offense.  He has the ability to take over the scoring load by himself.  Howland’s teams have historically been predictable and sluggish offensively, and Muhammad is the rare wing scorer that can take a game on his shoulders even if the offensive system is sputtering.

Anderson is the other true blue chip recruit in this class, though Adams and Parker should both compete for heavy amounts of playing time right away.  Along with Muhammad, Anderson was considered at least a top 5 player in the nation.

If Muhammad is the slasher and scorer, Anderson is the table setter.  A silky if methodical athlete, Anderson is a 6’7” point-forward with elite court vision and passing skills, not to mention a good mid-range offensive game, rare amongst today’s young players.

These fab freshmen would be enough by themselves to elevate UCLA back to the NCAA tournament and even greater heights it would seem, though they won’t be filling up a bare cupboard.  Still remaining on the Bruins roster is the talented but forever out of shape Josh Smith- a behemoth of a man for the college game.  If his conditioning ever matches up with his ability he can dominate college basketball. 

The brothers Travis and David Wear proved to be solid post players that should improve in their second year with the school after transferring from North Carolina.  With the Freshman Parker, Smith, and the Wears UCLA will possess a rare amount of size and versatility in the post that should make them a nightmare to matchup with. 

Then slide over to the wing where Muhammad should be an instant star, and will be accompanied there by the talented guard/forward Tyler Lamb.  Anderson will likely play a lot of point guard, and perhaps Norman Powell will be able to build on his decent freshman campaign of a year ago to provide depth at the guard position.  Adams will also slide between guard and forward providing great athleticism and scoring punch. 

What success is really going to boil down to in Westwood is Coaching and expectations.  Given the talent on this team there’s no reason to think they aren’t capable of making a run at the elite 8 and maybe even beyond.  We’ve seen the importance of freshmen in changing the landscape of college hoops and maybe UCLA has enough young talent to continue that trend.  But after all the dysfunction that has plagued this program over the past 2-3 years, can we as fans really expect this team to reach its potential?

That’s where the coaching comes in.  At one point Howland seemed to be one of the truly elite coaches in America.  He made Pittsburgh into a power, and then swiftly rebuilt UCLA into a juggernaut that reached 3 consecutive final fours producing NBA stars (and a slew of other solid NBA players) like Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love along the way.  

You would think that type of success would buy a little leeway and some more time to get things right when they go astray.  But the expectations at UCLA are always sky high, and things certainly have veered off course recently. 

Howland’s recruiting haul is both a blessing and a curse.  It should, if things go according to plan and potential, once again restore the luster to the Bruins program.  If, however, UCLA underachieves it could cost the man that so recently restored Bruin Pride his job in Westwood.  

NCAA Championship Game Notes

The 2011 college basketball championship was certainly historic but not for the reasons we would have hoped.  It was unquestionably the worst combined offensive display in championship game history, and Butler was unimaginably bad.  But, to the victor go the spoils, so let’s start with UConn.

-Jim Calhoun wins his third national championship, which passes Dean Smith and ties Bob Knight on the all-time list for most titles.  He now only trails Adolph Rupp (4), Mike Kryzewski (4), and John Wooden (10).  We don’t always talk about Calhoun with the same reverence as other all-time great coaches and I’m not sure why, but he has certainly locked up his spot as one of the best to ever walk the sidelines.

-Kemba Walker was horrible last night.  He went 5-19 from the field, but that’s also credit to Butler’s defense.  He did manage to snatch 9 rebounds; stars always find some way to impact a game.  Walker might really struggle on the next level to get his shot off.

-UConn Freshman Jeremy Lamb is going to be a star.  He played very well and was one of two Huskies, along with Alex Oriahki, to actually play well offensively.

-The Huskies' size was the biggest single reason they won this game.  They had ten blocks and changed virtually every Butler shot.  At one point late in the second half, UConn led 22-0 in points in the paint.  They also out-rebounded Butler 51-40.

-Early in the proceedings Steve Kerr called this game, “The Steelers vs. The Ravens”—perfect description.  Jay Bilas also tweeted during the game, “Jim Nantz can't wait to get to Augusta National for the Masters.  Someone is guaranteed to post a score at least in the 60's.”

-The play that clinched victory for Connecticut was Oriahki’s and-one dunk with 5:40 remaining.  It gave The Huskies a 13-point lead, and with how Butler was shooting, they weren’t coming back.

-The game last night was a horrible performance, but in no way should diminish what Butler has accomplished the past two years.  Making it to consecutive championships would be a tremendous feat for Duke, moreso for a mid-major.

-Brad Stevens is an incredible coach.  Last night it was obvious that Butler was not nearly as talented as UConn, but somehow they led at halftime and stayed in the game in the second half.  Butler shot 19% from the field, got thoroughly outrebounded, barely scored in the paint, and had two stretches without a field goal that spanned more than half of the game, and only lost by 12.

-I felt terrible for Matt Howard.  He went 1-13 in this game and just could not put the ball in the hoop.  Shelvin Mack wasn’t much better going 4-15.

-It was clear Butler finally missed last year’s star Gordon Hayward.  He was a guy that could manufacture his own shot, create off the dribble, and guard multiple positions. They needed him in this game badly.

-We often get bad games in the college basketball championship.  I think that’s because success in the tournament is not about being the best team, but matching up best with whatever opponent you draw.  Butler finally ran into a team they just couldn’t match up with, and they paid for it.

All in all it was a great tournament with a less than stunning climax.  We’ve seen this story before, and it proves once again that the first weekend of March Madness is really the best part of the tournament.  Congrats to UConn, and to Butler congrats on an amazing two year run.  Finally, to college basketball, goodbye for another year.

--from Adam

March Madness' Final Chapter: Picking UConn and Butler

In picking the Final Four matchups I analyzed every miniscule detail of both games, and it netted me an 0-2 record.  This time, I’m going to keep it simple…

Connecticut Huskies vs. Butler Bulldogs

Connecticut is going to have the edge on the boards with big bodied forward Alex Oriakhi and 7-footer Charles Okwandu.  Matt Howard is the best all-around post-player in this game, but he doesn’t possess the size or strength of UConn’s frontline.  At  6’11”, Butler center Andrew Smith has the length to rebound with the Huskies' big men, but he tends to get pushed around because of his slight frame.  UConn’s overall size, strength, and athleticism are going to wear on Butler.

The Bulldogs want to play a half-court game, but that really plays into Connecticut’s hands.  It’s going to be difficult for Butler to engineer points in the paint, and they aren’t a great three-point shooting team.  Throughout this tournament, Butler has had stretches where they just couldn’t score but overcame their offensive shortcomings with excellent defense.  Against Connecticut, that’s going to be a problem.  Kemba Walker is going to get his points.  He’s on a mission, and he’s absolutely unstoppable against man defense, which is all Butler plays.  Shelvin Mack may draw the assignment of guarding Walker, and that’s really dangerous for Brad Stevens’ crew.  If Mack racks up fouls or exhausts himself on defense, he won’t be able to carry the load on offense.

Considering Matt Howard’s uphill battle against the bigger Huskies frontline, Mack is going to have to shoulder a heavy burden on offense, and I don’t think he’ll be able to keep pace with Walker and the outstanding UConn freshman Jeremy Lamb.  Essentially, Butler’s man defense and UConn’s size will both win their share of battles, and the game will come down to Walker vs. Mack.  I’ll take Kemba in that matchup every day.

Prediction:  Connecticut 68 — Butler 61

--from Adam

Blue Bloods and Young Guns: The Final Four Prediction

I’ve heard many a pundit, analyst, and common fan complain that this Final Four doesn’t hold the intrigue of past years.           The argument goes that teams like Butler and VCU in the national semi-finals water down the talent and the entertainment value of college basketball’s climax.   I couldn’t disagree more.   People that feel this way are missing the boat, missing the appeal of the tournament.

Those that watch college basketball solely to watch great talent should switch over to the NBA.   The allure of college hoops is the intensity of the game and the energy with which it is played.   The tournament is so magnetic because it centers around young people who have not been jaded by professional sports yet.   These players cry after the losing games because they want to win so badly.  When’s the last time you saw an NBA player break down in tears on the court?

Second, success in the big dance isn’t always about talent.   Teams that win in this tournament do so because of execution and effort.   That’s why Butler is making their second straight Final Four appearance.   It’s also the reason VCU has gone from playing in the First Four to the Final Four.   March Madness is built for basketball purists, those that understand that basketball is the ultimate team game.   Teams that win in the tournament are those that have five guys who work as one and not just a collection of five, talented players.

March Madness is the rare chance to see the beauty of competition in its highest form.  The old cliché that anybody can win on a given night is literally played out every year in the month of March.   In a single game elimination format, effort, execution, emotion, and togetherness have a chance to trump talent at every turn.

Finally, the wonderful thing about this particular Final Four is the myriad story lines surrounding it.   For those that like seeing traditional powers battle, Connecticut and Kentucky satiate that thirst.   Those that like seeing the little guy rise up to the big moment will get their fix with Butler and VCU.  And best of all, we are assured of seeing a David vs. Goliath—at least in terms of tradition—matchup in the championship.   No matter who wins the semi-final games, a mid-major will face a traditional power in the Championship.  And though Kentucky and UConn clearly possess more talent than Butler or VCU, I believe there is no true favorite among the four.  Any of the remaining teams could win it all.

Virginia Commonwealth vs. Butler

Two great head coaches matchup here in VCU’s Shaka Smart and Butler’s Brad Stevens.  Combined, these two men have walked the Earth for 67 years, or, one year less than 68-year-old Jim Calhoun on the other side of the bracket.   Don’t let the youth of these two men fool you; both are ready for this moment.   Stevens has been here before and will know what to expect after making it all the way to the final game last year.  Smart doesn’t have the experience of his counterpart, but he has met every obstacle in this tournament thus far with unabashed bravado and confidence.   VCU plays with an angry intensity that they take from their coach.   Butler plays with a calm, almost mathematical efficiency courtesy of Stevens, who looks and talks more like a college professor than a basketball coach.

VCU might seem like a team that has squeaked by and relied on luck to reach this point in the tournament.   It makes sense that an 11 seed couldn’t possibly make this long of a run without some kind of divine intervention.  Yet when you see who the Rams have beaten and how convincingly they’ve done so, you get an idea of how well this group is playing right now.   They trounced USC by 13, Georgetown by 18, and Purdue by 18, then squeaked by Florida State, and led top seeded Kansas wire-to-wire in an emphatic, ten-point victory.   With as tough a road as conceivably possible, save for one close game against the Seminoles, VCU has been frankly dominant.

Butler has advanced to this point in more typical Cinderella, pulse-pounding fashion.  They beat Old Dominion at the buzzer, escaped Pittsburgh by a single point in the strangest game of the tournament, solidly beat Wisconsin, and then outlasted Florida in overtime.

VCU will have the advantage in the post with versatile and talented forward Jamie Skeen leading the attack.   Skeen will battle Butler forward Matt Howard, who is also a terrific all-around player.   The difference is that Skeen is more athletic and physically imposing.   Both Howard and Skeen can step out the three point line and knock down long range shots, and both can play with their backs to the basket.   Skeen is just bigger, stronger, and more of a force.   Howard has struggled with his shot at times, especially against physical defenders.  Skeen meanwhile thrived against Kansas, who had one of the biggest and best frontcourts in the nation.

Another key matchup will be at point guard; consider VCU’s Joey Rodriguez and his Butler counterpart Shelvin Mack.   Mack is the greater offensive talent and will eventually play in the NBA.   Rodriguez though, has been superb all tournament long and is probably the biggest reason for the Rams’ run.   Rodriguez doesn’t turn the ball over, has excellent shot selection, can get in the lane effectively, and really improves his teammates when he’s on the floor.  Mack can carry his team offensively, and often times has to, especially if Howard struggles.   A score-first guard, Mack can dominate a game for stretches.   I doubt Rodriguez will guard Mack much because he give up 5 inches and 35 pounds in that matchup, but how each point guard runs his team’s offense will be very significant.

Butler can win games without Howard and Mack having huge days because their defense is absolutely stifling.   The Bulldogs have beaten bigger, more physically talented teams by pressuring them into mistakes and forcing long, contested jump shots.   By making the other team take bad shots, Butler has a chance to win the rebounding battle, slow the tempo, and turn the game into a low possession affair.   The Bulldogs excel at slowing games down and maximizing the value of each possession by limiting second chance points, playing tremendous defense, and working patiently for good shots when they have the ball.   Butler nearly beat a much more talented Duke team last year in the Final because they executed to near perfection.   Stevens is so good at getting his teams to play under control and intelligent basketball that they truly can beat anyone.

VCU on the other hand, wants to inject a little chaos into the proceedings.   They’ll mix playing 2-3 zone with pressure man and occasional full-court press.   The Rams will also look to run in transition, and they love to shoot the three off the fast break.   Though Skeen is a great post player, he’s their only real offensive option down low, so VCU relies heavily on the three point shot.

It’s not luck that either team made it this far.   VCU has blown away perennial powerhouses with their style of play.   Butler hasn’t won by big margins, but really they don’t aim to blow teams out.   They want slow, grinding games that they can finish at the end.   If Butler tries to speed the game up, they’ll start losing the rebounding battle and their half-court defense will have less of an impact on the game.   So the true question is, which team will control the pace?

I think ultimately VCU is better equipped to impose their will on Butler than vice-versa.   The Rams have four players that average double figure points; Butler has just two.  VCU’s three main guards—Bradford Burgess, Brandon Rozzell, and Rodriguez—are all experienced, talented, and excellent ball handlers.   That trio is better than Butler’s group, who fall off significantly after Mack.   Skeen will play Howard at least to a draw, and if Howard gets into foul trouble, which he is prone to do, Butler will have a lot of trouble scoring, defending, and rebounding.

There’s a reason VCU has dominated virtually every team they’ve played in the tournament thus far.   It’s because their guards control the game, limit turnovers, and make their teammates much better players.   Butler has just one real play-maker in Mack.   The Rams are going to turn the pace up in this game and expose Butler’s lack of scoring punch.  I can’t believe I’m dumb enough to pick against Brad Stevens’ crew, but VCU has made a believer out of me.

Prediction: VCU 70 — Butler 66

Kentucky vs. Connecticut

Kentucky interestingly is less talented this year than they were last year, but has made it a round further.   Last year’s Wildcats sent five guys to the NBA in the first round yet lost in the Elite 8.   That doesn’t mean this group won’t get paid.  Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones are future lottery picks, and Doron Lamb, Deandre Liggins, and Darius Miller all should play in the league someday too.

The reason this year’s Kentucky group is better equipped than last year’s to win it all is the style of their players and the offensive balance they play with.   Knight is not near the athlete that John Wall is, but he has a much more reliable jump shot, which makes him far more effective in the half court.  Wall had to play in transition to be effective.  Knight doesn’t.   Last year’s Kentucky team principally relied on Demarcus Cousins, Wall, and Patrick Paterson to score.  That was an issue because Wall was offensively limited and Cousins always got into foul trouble.   This year’s Cats have four guys that score in double figures and two more that nearly do.   They are a superior jump shooting team.   Additionally, senior Josh Harrelson and the junior Liggins provide some veteran support for the four freshmen Kentucky plays regularly.

Harrelson has truly been a revelation for Kentucky.  He barely played until this year because he wasn’t in good enough shape to stay on the floor for extended stretches.   This year though he’s logged 29 minutes per game and provides an essential post presence for a team with lots of talented guards and wing players.   Harrelson can score effectively, but his biggest role is to rebound and challenge shots at the rim.   At 6’10” and 275 pounds, he’s always one of the biggest players on the floor and can physically matchup with any opposing big man.

Kentucky power forward Terrence Jones complements Harrelson well inside.   Jones is an extremely talented player with the size and strength to bang with anybody.   Plus, he’s athletic enough to play against small forwards.   Basically, he’s a matchup nightmare.   He can shoot the three or post up, guard multiple positions defensively, and is unselfish with the ball.  The one worry for Kentucky is that Harrelson and Jones are really the only big men that log any minutes at all, so if they get into foul trouble, Kentucky will have to go small.

Jones and Harrelson will have their hands full on the boards, competing with UConn big men Alex Oriakhi and Charles Okwandu.  Oriakhi is a big body who can certainly score, but he isn’t a polished offensive player.  His points mostly come on put-backs, but he has developed a pretty reliable jump hook.   Okwandu is just on the floor to be big, and at 7’0” and 255 pounds, he dwarfs most all college centers.  Okwandu is not going to score, but he’ll changes shots in the lane and will be able to rumble with Harrelson.

Kentucky’s plan on offense will be to spread the Huskies out and let their superior athletes drive the lane and kick out to Knight, Lamb, Miller, and Liggins for three pointers.  The Cats will also give the ball to Jones on pick-and-pop plays where he can either shoot a long range jumper or take his bigger man off the dribble.   Jones is huge in this game because he has the ability to draw UConn’s size away from the rim and open things up for Kentucky’s slashers.

Uconn’s offensive goal is simple: Oriakhi and Okwandu hang out in the post to snatch rebounds and get more shots and possessions for Kemba Walker.   Walker is going to be the best player on the floor, but he doesn’t have as much scoring help as his counterpoint Knight does.    UConn freshman Jeremy Lamb has stepped up hugely in the tournament, providing a really good second scorer in support of Walker.   Lamb is a really good athlete that can shoot, score in transition, and handle the ball.   If Connecticut wants to win, Jeremy Lamb has to score between 15-20 points, Walker has to do his thing, and Oriakhi needs to play like a beast inside.

Ultimately, Kentucky has more ways to win and more ways to score than does UConn.   The Wildcats have six guys that can score 15 points in a given game.   The Huskies have one player who might get 35 points but don’t have enough other scoring options.

Kentucky should be able to battle Connecticut to a draw on the boards.   The Wildcats also have the personnel to create a ton of mismatches on the floor, and John Calipari is an excellent offensive coach.   Kemba has the ability to win a game by himself, but I think against Kentucky he’ll need more help, and he won’t get it.

Prediction: Kentucky 75 — UConn 69

--from Adam

Bracket Busted: Repicking the Sweet 16

(2) San Diego State Aztecs vs. (3) Connecticut Huskies

Tip-Off: Thursday, 7:15 Eastern

Network: CBS

Theme: Scrappy Aztecs Try to Stop the Kemba Walker Show

Even though San Diego State is 34-2, I think they’re overrated.  In watching them over the first two games they appeared to be a solid but unspectacular team.  Needing two overtimes to dispatch a so-so Temple squad should be worrisome for the Aztecs.  Conversely, UConn has looked like one of the stronger teams in the tournament.  The Huskies easily overwhelmed a Bucknell team many experts believed could pull off an upset or two.  Connecticut then beat Big-East rival Cincinnati with relative ease.

Besides how both teams have performed thus far in the tourney, I think UConn has superior personnel.  Kemba Walker will be the best player on the floor, and the Huskies’ size inside is something most college teams aren’t prepared for.  SDSU will play aggressive pressure basketball and aren’t devoid of length starting three forwards that range from 6’7” to 6’9”.  UConn’s starting power forward is Alex Oriakhi (6’9” 240 pounds) and they play 7-footer Charles Okwandu 15-20 minutes per game.  Connecticut, besides all their size, play a three guard lineup featuring Walker, and freshman guards Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb. Napier is a very good ball handler and passer, while Lamb is a scorer, good athlete, and accurate three point shooter.  Kawhai Leonard is the Aztecs’ best player, but he’s a bit of a tweener.  It’s hard to say if he’s a small forward or power forward, and the Huskies have plenty of players that can guard him.

One thing that gives me slight pause is that this game will take place in Anaheim, securing a home court advantage for SDSU.  Still, the Huskies have a national fan base and won’t be unrepresented on the West Coast.

Ultimately, when two relatively equal teams matchup, the squad with the best overall player should win.  The best overall player in this game will be Walker, and he has plenty of help around him.  UConn will own the boards, and the Kemba will own the day.

Prediction: UConn 73 — SDSU 65

(2) Florida Gators vs. (3) BYU Cougars

Tip-Off: Thursday, 7:27 Eastern

Network: TBS

Theme: Jimmer vs. the World

I said in the UConn-SDSU breakdown that when two equal teams matchup, whoever has the best overall player should win.  Jimmer Fredette is unquestionably the best player in this game, possibly the whole tournament, but are BYU and Florida relatively equal teams?  I don’t think so.  Florida has good but not great players all over their roster, fielding a deep, versatile, big, and talented team.

Florida clearly has more talent, size, and athleticism, so the question is can Fredette negate all those disadvantages?  Simply, no.  Ever since BYU lost their starting center, Brandon Davies, the Cougars have relied even more on Fredette to carry the load.  Jimmer will get his points and make some unbelievable shots, but it won’t be enough.  Billy Donovan is a great coach, and he’ll be able to win a game where he basically has to stop one guy.  Force Fredette to take difficult shots, make him work defensively, and tire him out over the course of the game.

Additionally, Florida will have a big edge in the rebounding battle.  The Gators start Chandler Parsons and Vernon Macklin, both 6’10”, forward Alex Tyus is 6’8”, and reserve Erik Murphy is 6’10”.  The Cougars’ tallest player is 6’9”.  Florida’s guard play is dynamic as well; Erving Walker and Kenny Boyton are excellent scorers that handle the ball and defend.

Jimmer was good enough to beat Gonzaga and Wofford by himself, but the Gators are too competent offensively, too big, and too athletic to overcome.  Unless Fredette scores 50, the Gators win.

Prediction: Florida 68 — BYU 58

(1) Duke Blue Devils vs. (5) Arizona Wildcats

Tip-Off: Thursday, 9:45 Eastern

Network: CBS

Theme: Arizona’s Athletes vs. Duke’s Precision

The Blue Devils are only getting stronger at the right time of year.  Freshman sensation Kyrie Irving is back and should be even better with another week to get into the groove.  Guard Nolan Smith should be heavily considered for the Naismith, and forward Kyle Singler is one of the best all-around players in the country.  The Plumlee Brothers are unspectacular in the post, but they are solid and use their considerable size well.  Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins provide good support, scoring, and depth for the big three of Singler, Smith, and Irving.

Arizona is entirely dependent on the play of the extraordinary sophomore forward Derrick Williams.  He’s very strong and can play either inside or out.  Singler will be able to guard him on the perimeter, but lacks the strength to give Williams problems in the post.  Williams will get his points and give the Blue Devils problems, but he won’t have enough help.  The second leading scorer for the Wildcats averages just 9 points per contest.  Additionally, ‘Zona doesn’t have great size in the post, something that traditionally gives Duke issues.  What Arizona does have is tremendous athleticism across their lineup.  They should be able to deal with Duke’s three guards and will have the horses to stay with Singler.  Defending the three point shot is vital against the Blue Devils, and Arizona has the potential to do that very well.

In the end though, Duke is too smart, too consistent, and too talented for the Wildcats.  I expect Arizona to try to make this an up and down frenetic game.  They may succeed for a half, but they won’t be able to dictate pace the whole way.  Ho-hum, Duke advances to the Elite 8 once more.

Prediction: Duke 71 — Arizona 63

(4) Wisconsin Badgers vs. (8) Butler Bulldogs

Tip-Off: Thursday, 9:57 Eastern

Network: TBS

Theme: Defense, Defense, Defense

After reviewing my original bracket and contemplating this piece, I promised to pick with my head and not my heart like I did the first time around.  This is the game that will most test that assurance.  Of all the Sweet 16 matchups, this one is the most likely to be close throughout.  These teams will be back and forth all night, and I doubt either will build a truly sizeable lead.  Defensively, these are two of the best groups in the country, they hang their hat on that end of the floor, it’s the identity for both.  We will surely witness a low-scoring, grindingly methodical game.

We may also have two of the three best coaches in the country in Butler head man Brad Stevens and Bo Ryan for the Badgers.  Stevens is a numbers guy; he finds a way to milk the clock and maximize every possession.  Bo knows hoops inside and out; he’s great with his players and makes terrific adjustments.

The key to the game is going to be which team can score down the stretch.  In a defensive game that’s close throughout, one team will have to find a way to manufacture some points. Who is more equipped to score in tight situations?  Butler certainly has experience after going to the 2010 Final and returning most of that team this year.  Guard Shelvin Mack is an exceptional player who has turned up his level in the tournament.  Forward Matt Howard is a really smart player that has added three point range to his arsenal of post moves.  Wisconsin counters with two oddly similar players.  Guard Jordan Taylor is a savvy scorer that leads a Badgers offense that is on a historic pace in terms of limiting turnovers.  Forward Jon Leuer, much like Butler’s Howard, can catch the ball on the block or step out to the three line and be effective.

Perhaps my justification for who will win this game comes down to luck.  Butler has been very lucky thus far escaping Old Dominion at the buzzer and beating Pittsburgh in the strangest game of the tournament.  Stevens’ bunch may have used all of their get out of jail free cards and are unlikely to be so lucky against Wisconsin.  Butler has been an inconsistent team on the year that is playing well now, but we’ve seen them have flat performances, and I just don’t see them making the Elite 8 two years in a row.  Wisconsin also has played very well thus far in the tournament, and Taylor had his worst game of the season in their last game against Kansas State.  In other words, he is due for a big time performance.  In a defensive struggle, I believe his play will be the difference.

Prediction: Wisconsin 62 — Butler 59

(2) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (11) Marquette Golden Eagles

Tip-Off: Friday, 7:15 Eastern

Network: CBS

Theme: Pros vs. Joes

Talent vs. grit is the name of this game.  UNC has the future pros and the pedigree, and Marquette has the “us against the world” card to play.  The Golden Eagles also have a tremendous amount of team quickness and athleticism.  They play pressuring, aggressive defense, and often double the post to make up for their lack of size.  But if UNC can find the open man out of that double team and make their outside shots, they should win going away.

There’s no way Marquette can board with the frontline of Tyler Zeller, John Henson, and Harrison Barnes.  UNC is 1^st in the country in rebounds per game.  Marquette is 104^th.  Usually when a team has that big of an advantage in such a significant aspect of the game, you know who should win.  UNC coach Roy Williams is too good at what he does to lose a matchup where he has such an advantage.

I expect Marquette to make this game ugly, fast, wild, and lots of fun.  However, UNC can play up-tempo, and they can win that type of game.  The personnel for North Carolina will be too much for feisty Marquette.

Prediction: North Carolina 76 — Marquette 67

(1) Kansas Jayhawks vs. (12) Richmond Spiders

Tip-Off: Friday, 7:27 Eastern

Network: TBS

Theme: Is Cinderella Ready for the Ball?

David vs. Goliath certainly sums up this matchup on paper, though I don’t think Richmond feels that way.  The Spiders have grown accustomed to pulling upsets and have made some runs over their history.  Kansas typically struggles with mid-majors in the tournament, seeming to play tight.  For some reason though, I think the Jayhawks are ready to have their best performance.

When Kansas plays up-tempo and unencumbered, they are really tough to beat.  Richmond will have to play a perfect game to win, and even that might not be enough.

Richmond forward Justin Harper is a very good player who at 6’10” can rebound, score from all over the court, and should be able to check one of the Morris twins from Kansas.  Spiders guard Kevin Anderson complements Harper as a really talented second scorer.  Any time a team has two players that can really light it up, they have a chance.

Unfortunately for Richmond, Kansas has the best post duo in the nation in Marcus and Markieff Morris.  Both brothers can step away from the hoop, play with their backs to the basket, rebound, pass, and challenge shots.  Tyrell Reed and Brady Morningstar both really shoot the three ball.  Tyshawn Taylor and Josh Selby can also shoot from distance; they bring great speed to the guard positions.  Thomas Robinson is an excellent reserve forward who averages 8 points and 7 rebounds in just 15 minutes of game action.  Kansas can play eleven guys or can shorten their rotation to eight players.  They can play fast, they defend, they shoot the three, and they have talent in the post.  Richmond has two very nice players who likely would be backups on the Jayhawks.  I just can’t see KU losing this game.

Prediction: Kansas 74 — Richmond 59

(1) Ohio State Buckeyes vs. (4) Kentucky Wildcats

Tip-Off: Friday, 9:45 Eastern

Network: CBS

Theme: Talent as Far as the Eye Can See

This is easily the sexiest matchup of the Sweet 16.  There is pro talent all over the floor, and Kentucky just might have more than the top-seeded Buckeyes.  Still, no one is playing as well as Ohio State right now.  Jared Sullinger has been unstoppable on the block, and he provides wide open jumpers for many a Buckeye marksman—Jon Diebler, William Buford, and David Lighty.  Buckeye point guard Aaron Craft has been great all year at setting the table for all the talented scorers on this team.  Craft handles the ball well and is a terrific passer and excellent defender.  Freshman sixth man Deshaun Thomas is a McDonald’s All-American that would start for most any other team.  Buckeye forward Dallas Lauderdale is a monster in terms of challenging shots and using his body to wear down opposing bigs.

Kentucky won’t be intimidated by the size or talent of Ohio State because they can match the Buckeyes player for player.  Wildcat center Josh Harrellson is the rare player that can equal Sullinger’s size in the post at 6’10” and 275 pounds.  He’s very strong, can score when needed, and plays with excellent body position, a true test for Sullinger.  Harrellson doesn’t need to outscore #0; he just needs to make his life difficult.  Kentucky forward Terrence Jones can do everything.  He’ll shoot, handle, pass, slash, or post up, a tough matchup for the plodding big men of Ohio State.  Freshman point guard Brandon Knight is a true star, capable of hanging 30 points if he needs to.  Craft will have his hands full checking Knight all day.  Knight is flanked by sweet shooting freshman Doron Lamb, who makes threes at a nearly 50% clip. Deandre Liggins and Darius Miller provide Kentucky with slashing wing players who can also knock down the outside shot.

Kentucky is the more athletic team, but not by much.  Ohio State is stronger inside but just by a nose.  With the post and point guard matchups equaling out, I think the wing players will account for the difference in this game.  Diebler, Lighty, and Bufford are just too good right now.  They will outperform Liggins and Miller.

Prediction: Ohio State 69 — Kentucky 63

(10) Florida State Seminoles vs. (11) Virginia Commonwealth Rams

Tip-Off: Friday, 9:57 Eastern

Network: TBS

Theme: One of these teams is going to be in the Elite 8?

The best thing about this matchup is that a double digit seed is assured of making the quarterfinals.  That means we will get one of those Cinderella vs. Perennial Powerhouse matchups in the next round, and we all love that.

This game is relatively simple to break down.  These are two of the best defensive teams in the country that both struggle to score on offense.  Thus, it should come down to rebounding and turnovers.  The team that limits its mistakes and gets the most second chances on the boards should have the most chances to put the ball in the hoop.  And I think that team will be Florida State.

The Seminoles’ star player, Chris Singleton, has been working his way back from injury and should be ready to play big minutes in this game.  That’s huge because he’s the one guy who FSU can rely on to get tough baskets.

VCU plays a lot of guards; their second tallest player who actually plays significant minutes is just 6’6”.  Their biggest player is star forward Jamie Skeen.  Skeen is going to have to play possessed to compete with FSU’s size and athleticism in the paint.

This is going to be a really low scoring game, but FSU has the best defense in the nation and are one of the more rugged teams I’ve seen this year.  I give the Seminoles the nod.

Prediction: Florida State 56 — VCU 49

--from Adam

The Onset of March Madness

Favorite player: Jake Odum, Indiana State

The Sycamores lost to #3 seeded Syracuse, but it wasn’t for lack of trying.  Indiana State point guard Jake Odum threw no-look passes like they were going out of style, steam-rolled around the court without regard to teammates or defenders, and seemed to hop as he was running.  Energy emanated from Odum at all times.  He played with an absolute verve, like he was truly enjoying the challenge of playing a storied opponent.  Exciting, undpredictable, and unusual, someone like Odum encapsulates the beauty of March Madness.  It’s so much fun to watch these teams you’ve never even heard of and to be surprised by the talents they possess.

Best Madness Moment: Butler Upsets Pittsburgh

Down one point with less than ten seconds to go, Butler gets a layup to surge ahead.  Pitt, in a hurry with just 5 seconds left, inbounds the ball to guard Gilbert Brown rocketing down the far sideline hoping to hoist a last second shot.  But before Brown reached mid-court, Butler star Shelvin Mack senselessly fouled him, resulting in a 1-and-1 for Pittsburgh who needed to sink both free throws to take the lead, and likely, the game.  Brown calmly made the first free throw to knot the game at 70.  The second shot seemed a lock to go in; Pittsburgh had all the momentum and Butler just made a crushing mistake.  Brown fired his second attempt and clanged it off the rim.  Butler forward Matt Howard elevated for the rebound, snatched it, and on his way down was inexplicably hacked by Pitt forward Nasir Robinson.  Mind you, Howard was 90 feet from his own basket with less than two seconds remaining.  There was no earthly reason to touch Howard, yet Robinson blatantly fouled him.  Pitt was in the penalty, so in a tie game Butler’s Howard went to the line needing to make one free throw to effectively knock off the #1 seeded Panthers.  Howard stepped to the line, made the first foul attempt, purposely missed the second, and time expired.  I’ve never seen two more horrible fouls so close together completely shift the game in both directions.  In the span of four seconds, Butler hit a shot to take the lead, Pittsburgh got fouled with a chance for the go-ahead free throw, and then Butler sealed the game at the line.

Morehead State’s last second shot against #4 seeded Louisville is a strong runner up to the Butler-Pittsburgh game.  Down two points with the ball and 20 seconds remaining, Morehead chose to not go for the tie and gave themselves no chance for a put back rebound by running out the clock and hoisting a buzzer beating three.  The Eagles made the shot and advanced to the Round of 32, shocking Rick Pitino’s Cardinals.

Most Impressive Team: Ohio State Buckeyes

A dominant win over Texas-San Antonio was no surprise, but their demolition of George Mason was a statement performance.  Jared Sullinger is the best post player in the nation and Jon Diebler is a certified marksman from deep.  They are experienced, athletic, and have multiple scorers, the full package.  The Buckeyes are as big a favorite as any team to win a championship.

Most Dissapointing Team: Tennessee Volunteers

To be the most disappointing team, you need to have played poorly.  Anybody can get beat, like Pittsburgh did against Butler.  Pitt, though, played well in that game and lost a spandex tight contest to the defending national runner up.  I’m not disappointed by Pittsburgh because they played terrific basketball.  "Terrific" does not exactly sum up the play of the Tennessee Volunteers however.  8 vs. 9 games are supposed to be close, yet the Volunteers got squashed by 30 points against Michigan.  The Wolverines are a solid team, but they shouldn’t beat anyone like that.  I’m sure the Tennessee coaches and players were totally distracted by the inevitable firing of Bruce Pearl, but my God, please have a little pride.

The Tournament Selection Committee Knows What It’s Doing

Lots of people always complain about how poorly the committee seeds the tournament, but they did a great job this year.  The higher seeds, meaning teams 1-8, went a combined 25-7 against the lower seeds.  The only major upset in the first two days was Morehead State's victory over Louisville.  #11 seeded Marquette over #6 seeded Xavier should not shock anyone, a talented power conference school beating a mid-major.  #11 seeded Gonzaga beat #6 seeded St. Johns; the Zags are always dangerous in the tournament.  #10 Florida State beat #7 Texas A&M, #11 VCU took out the struggling #6 Georgetown Hoyas, Richmond outlasted Vanderbilt in the deadly 12-5 matchup, and #9 seeded Illinois beat #8 seed UNLV.  The Louisville loss was the one game in the entire first round that surprised.

Thoughts on CBS, TruTV, TBS, and TNT teaming up to bring us every game in its entirety: Pure American Awesome-ness

Commercials were almost entirely avoidable, and you could potentially watch four different close games come down to the wire simultaneously.  The best sporting event in the world just became four times more accessible.  Rarely does something so good become exponentially better, but that’s what happened with this year’s tournament.  Also the new setup allowed Charles Barkley onto the CBS set, instantly quadrupling the entertainment value of pregame, halftime, and wrap-up shows.

--from Adam