Quick and Dirty NBA First Round Predictions

I'm in a time crunch folks, I'm going to get my marriage license this morning, but that doesn't mean I've forgotten the most important thing, the NBA Playoffs:

(1) Chicago Bulls V. (8) Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are athletic and deep, but they just don't have enough offensive punch to last in this series.  They'll compete and these games will be basketball played the right way: team defense, sharing the ball, good effort.  The Bulls just play that style better.  Chicago in 5.

(2) Miami Heat V. (7) New York Knicks

This should be a lot of fun.  Talent all over the court.  Carmelo Anthony has been arguably the best player in the league over the second half of the season, and Tyson Chandler should really dominate the boards and challenge Lebron and DWade at the hoop.  Still, There's nobody that impacts the game as profoundly as James, and I think he's on a mission this year.  Heat in 6.

(3) Indiana Pacers V. (6) Orlando Magic

It's simple, there's just no way Orlando does anything without Dwight Howard.  Indiana gets a free pass into the second round.  Pacers in 4.

(4) Boston Celtics V. (5) Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks did it again! Piled up wins in the regular season only to be bounced by a poised, smarter team in the postseason.  The Celtics defense has been stifling since the all star break and the emergence of Avery Bradley has made a big impact.  Celtics in 6.

(1) San Antonio Spurs V. (8) Utah Jazz

Things didn't turn out well for the Spurs last year when they achieved the top seed, but I don't see that happening again.  With Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson the Jazz have the size to bother the Spurs, and should steal a game or two at home, but they won't win the series.  Spurs in 5. 

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder V. (7) Dallas Mavericks

The Thunder are no longer an inexperienced playoff team, and I think Dallas is on its last legs for this year.  The Thunder will run them out of the gym and the series early.  Thunder in 5.

(3) LA Lakers V. (6) Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are the type of team that could bother LA.  Their young, deep, and athletic, but they don't have a go to scorer which matters in the playoffs, and they will struggle in the more half-court style of the postseason.  Denver also has no match for Bynum and Gasol, but who does?  Kobe is rested and the Lakers finally have speed at point guard to counteract the likes of Ty Lawson.  It will be a struggle but the Lakers win.  Lakers in 6.  

(4) Memphis Grizzlies V. (5) LA Clippers

This is the best series of the first round maybe along with the Heat-Knicks.  The Grizzlies are really tough inside with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, but the Clips counter with Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin.  Rudy Gay has no match on the Clippers, but Chris Paul is the best player in the series.  Then there are countless good role players on both sides: Nick Young, Caron Butler, Mo Williams and Randy Foye for LA.  OJ Mayo, Mike Conley, Tony Allen, and Marreese Speights for the Grizzlies.  I Might be nuts here but I think Super-Stars are the difference in the playoffs, so I'll take Chris Paul to find a way.  Clippers in 6. 

NBA Draft Lottery: Karma Exists

The lottery, as announced last night: 

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
3. Utah Jazz
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Washington Wizards
7. Sacramento Kings
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Charlotte Bobcats
10. Milwaukee Bucks
11. Golden State Warriors
12. Utah Jazz
13. Phoenix Suns
14. Houston Rockets

Teams That Won Big

Cleveland Cavaliers: Lose LeBron James one year; get the first and fourth picks the next year.  Even though no one in this year’s class is LeBron, two top-4 picks have the power to turn things around quickly.  Kyrie Irving will likely be Cleveland’s first choice, and he will be a good—if not great—point guard in this league.  Plus, he had the advantage of learning under Mike Krzyzewski for a year.  With the fourth pick, the Cavs have a shot to get another elite talent.  Cleveland is a bad team right now, but JJ Hickson is a promising forward, Antawn Jamison can still score, Anthony Parker is a solid role player, and Baron Davis is talented but aging.  Anderson Varejao is another guy who, if surrounded by talent, is very adept at crashing the boards and defending well.  The draft is a crapshoot, but the Cavs have the opportunity to add two All Star-level talents to their team, the year after a certain someone took his talents to South Beach. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: If they didn’t have a moron running their front office, this team would have some real opportunities to make their team better.  They could get Derrick Williams with the second pick, maybe the best all-around player in the draft and the guy most ready to come in and impact games immediately.  Pair him with Kevin Love, and you have a stud young forward combination plus last year’s top pick Wesley Johnson, who appears will be a good NBA player as well.  On top of that, the Wolves have Ricky Rubio as a trade asset, and Michael Beasley had his best year as a pro last year.  Package those two guys in a trade for another established player, and the Wolves could finally move from the cellar to at least the middle of the pack. 

Utah Jazz: The Jazz have two lottery picks this year, picking at third (via New Jersey and the Deron Williams trade) and twelfth.  That alone is enough to make lottery night a success, but when you consider what the Jazz ending up getting in exchange for Deron Williams, this night was a slam dunk.  The Jazz dealt Williams for Devin Harris (near-All Star player), Derrick Favors (third overall pick last year), this upcoming draft’s third overall pick, and the Nets’ first round pick next year (likely to be another lottery selection).  And because the Jazz didn’t make the playoffs this year, they also get their own pick, coming in at #12.  There isn’t a team in the league with more young talent, future picks, and established talent—Harris, Al Jefferson, and Paul Millsap—than Utah.

--from Adam

Catch and Shoot: Deron Williams and Carmelo Anthony

Looking at the Deron Williams trade to New Jersey

Nets Perspective: The Nets traded point guard Devin Harris and this year’s third overall pick, Derrick Favors, to acquire Williams.  New Jersey made the deal to land a superstar and shed some salary, perhaps to add another star down the road.  They found their superstar in the 26-year-old Williams, a great player for at least the next 5-7 years.  Harris is a near All Star-level player, and Favors could develop into a very good player down the road.  If you compare what the Knicks gave up for Carmelo Anthony and what the Nets gave up for Williams, it’s not even close.  The Nets paid a very high price to get their man, but prevailing NBA logic says that if you can deal for a sure-fire star, you pull the trigger, made easier in this case as Harris has probably plateaued in his development and Favors is a “what if” player.  There’s no way of knowing if Favors will hit his ceiling, so dealing these two for a sure thing was a good move.

Jazz Perspective: In trading a superstar, you never get back equal value.  Shaquille O'Neal was traded for Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, and Caron Butler.  Anthony was dealt for Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, Tim Mosgov, and a pick.  So you may ask, “Why trade him at all?”  Williams was unhappy in Utah and would have left when he hit the free agent market in two years.  From that point of view, it makes sense to deal him.  If you’re going to lose a star, you may as well get something in return.  The Cavaliers and Raptors got nothing but a few picks for LeBron James and Chris Bosh, and they are now probably the two worst teams in the league.  In Harris, the Jazz get a relatively young guard who can score and facilitate.  Favors joins a talented Utah front court that already boasts Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson.  The Jazz may even be able to stay in the playoff race this year, but certainly they will not be a championship contender.  The only way this move really pays of for Utah is if Favors becomes a star, but we just have to wait and see on that.  The Jazz are starting fresh with the resignation of Jerry Sloan and the exodus of Williams, yet they start fresh with some nice building blocks.  As a Jazz fan, you can’t ask for much more, and it could have been much worse.

Carmelo Anthony Bolts for the Big Apple

Knicks Perspective: Some argue that the Knicks gave up too much to acquire Anthony.  I think in keeping Landry Fields and acquiring Corey Brewer as part of the trade, those concerns are invalid.  Brewer replaces Chandler well, Anthony is a huge upgrade over Gallinari, and Chanucey Billups is just as productive as Felton.  In essence, Anthony was the best player that moved in this trade by far, and the Knicks got him, so it’s a win on their end.   Pairing Anthony with Amare Stoudemire gives the Knicks two of best 20 players in the game today, and both are young—Stoudemire is 28, Anthony 26—with futures ahead of them.  Stoudemire is third in the league in scoring while Anthony ranks fifth.  The Knicks now have as good a duo as any team in the league and may even go out and acquire another big piece down the road.

In the NBA, a single player has a bigger impact than in almost any other team sport.  Only five guys are on the court at a time, so one guy can make a huge difference.  LeBron James' absence has meant a 50 win difference for the Cavaliers...in the wrong direction.  Felton, Chandler, and Gallinari were playing well, but their numbers were inflated in Mike D’antoni’s run-'n'-gun system.  None of those players has superstar-level talent.  Role players can always be replaced; superstars are rare. 

Some would agree with my argument but say, “The Knicks could have just waited for the off-season and signed Carmelo without giving up a thing.”  That’s flawed thinking because with a looming lockout, Anthony likely would have signed a $65 million extension with the Nuggets rather than risk getting far less money under the new collective bargaining agreement.   If there’s a lockout and Anthony hadn’t signed with Denver, he would have been without any contract.  With the lockout as a strong possibility as it is, he almost certainly would have taken the guaranteed money from the Nuggets.

Nuggets Perspective: "Well, crap," is what Nuggets fans are thinking.  It’s kind of like when someone you love is seriously ill, but you have months to prepare for the inevitable.  You know they’re going to leave you, but at least you have some time to get mentally prepared.  No Nugget fans were surprised by Anthony's departure, but it doesn’t mean they weren’t sad or disappointed.  The Knicks had most of the leverage in this deal because they knew Anthony didn’t want to go to the Nets.  They also knew the Nuggets desperately wanted to get something for Anthony.  So as the only true bidder in the Carmelo sweepstakes, they could lowball Denver.  The Nuggets get a solid point guard in  Felton, probably top-15 in the league.  Chandler is a talented and athletic young player, but he is a role player to be sure.  The biggest talent the Nuggets acquired was Gallinari, a 6’10” pure shooter and versatile offensive player.  There are concerns about his knees holding up, but the game is there.  They also acquired a project big man in Mozgov.  Again, in the NBA, three nice players do not equal one great one.  With five guys on the court, one of them has to be able to dominate and take over the game.  Denver didn’t get anybody in this trade that can do that.  What they did get is a nice foundation and some salary cap room.  If they can lure a true star to Denver to replace the one they just lost, or somehow find one in the draft, they will have some very nice players to surround him with.  JR Smith, Aaron Afflalo, Gallinari, Felton, Chandler, and Ty Lawson represent some very good young players who have a future with the team.

Which Player is the Bigger Piece: Anthony complements another superstar in Stoudemire, so acquiring him might seem like the bigger splash, but Williams is the better singular building block.   The NBA is a point guard-driven league, and Williams is as good any point man in the game.  When you get Williams, every player on your team immediately gets better because of his court vision and ability to set up other players with great looks.  Anthony improves your team because he is scoring machine, but he doesn’t impact his teammates in the same way Williams does.

Recap: The Nets and Knicks are the big winners because they got the stars.  The Jazz did as well as you can when you trade your franchise player.  The Nuggets did slightly worse, but were pretty much hamstrung because Anthony only wanted to go to the Knicks, so they had to settle for a moderate package.  Still, they got something, and that’s better than letting your star walk for free.

--from Adam

Catch and Shoot: Jerry Sloan

Sloan is expected to resign as Jazz coach.

Jerry Sloan was one of the few coaches in the NBA capable of making a tangible difference.  There are plenty of teams that have had more talent through the years than his Jazz teams had, but he was always in contention.  The three greatest players he ever had were Karl Malone, John Stockton, and Deron Williams.  That's not exactly Jordan, Pippen, Shaq, or Kobe.  In many ways, he came on the scene at the wrong time–Jordan years/Shaq and Kobe years.  His pinnacle was making the Finals two years in a row but losing in six games both times to Jordan's Bulls.  If he had made it the years Jordan was playing baseball/staging his comeback, he could have two rings on his fingers.

His teams always played defense, always moved the ball, and always played hard.  Kobe Bryant has said that Sloan was one of his favorite players growing up because of his toughness.  That's a huge compliment and is indicative of just how hard-nosed Sloan was.  His teams reflected that toughness.  As a player, Sloan averaged 7.5 rebounds per game at just 6'5"–that ain't easy–and as a coach, he had a fantastic .600 career winning percentage.

Salt Lake is a small market that today's player doesn't want to be in.  The Jazz never spent a lot of money, and usually weren't drafting in the lottery, so Sloan was always working with less than other coaches.  He's one of those guys that people will always say, "yeah but, he never won a ring," but that really is a lazy argument.  He was an excellent coach, and never forced his way out of teams he thought couldn't go all the way (ahem, Larry Brown).  He was a guy more interested in process than results; he loved coaching more than the spotlight.  In a different scenario he could have won multiple championships, but he was loyal in a disloyal league.  He should be commended, not judged for his lack of titles.  He did everything a coach needs to in order to win, he just never quite had the level of talent throughout his run to get to the mountain top.

--from Adam

(image from sloanhands.blogspot.com)