#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks
It’s time to get over the fact that Atlanta actually won a series. They’re here, and they have a shot at giving Chicago a run for their money. Carlos Boozer is a good player, but he’s always going to be undersized at the power forward position and struggled against the bigger Pacers in the first round. Zaza Pachulia and Jason Collins aren’t great talents, but they are serviceable 7-footers that will clog the lane, snatch rebounds, and make life difficult for Boozer and Joakim Noah. Add in the talented combo of Al Horford and mega athlete Josh Smith, and the Hawks have an imposing four man post rotation. Derrick Rose is going to be the best player in the series, but Hawks guard Kirk Hinrich used to share the backcourt with Rose and is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, so he could have a favorable matchup. Marvin Williams has underachieved, but he is a very good athletic match with Bulls swingman Luol Deng. Jamal Crawford is going to be the x-factor for this whole series. Capable of averaging 25 points over the course of a series, he will shoot from anywhere on the floor. Crawford, Joe Johnson, Smith, and Horford is probably a more talented scoring group then Rose, Deng, Boozer, and Noah. Atlanta also has more playoff experience than the younger Bulls. As you can see, the matchups are really in Atlanta’s favor, and overall the Hawks might be the more talented team. Where Atlanta has always struggled is giving effort each night and committing on the defensive end. The Bulls never waver on defense or effort, so even if their offense disappears, they still stay in games. Chicago got a wake up call from the scrappy Pacers, and though the Hawks are a more talented foe than Indiana, Chicago’s focus, style, and coaching will be enough to guide them to the East Finals.
Prediction: Bulls in 7
#2 Miami Heat vs. #3 Boston Celtics
Throughout the regular season Boston maintained a mental edge over Miami, but now they don’t have their most imposing figure, Kendrick Perkins. And after blowing out Boston in their last meeting, Miami certainly gained some confidence. Still, Rajon Rondo is going to dominate the point guard battle with Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen won’t match the production of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, but if they can come close, that will be enough. Kevin Garnett and Chris Bosh should cancel each other out; both are thin framed, jump shooting bigs. Even minus Perkins, Boston has the edge inside with Glen Davis, Jeff Green, Jermaine O’Neal, Nenad Kristic, and Garnett. That collection of forwards should thoroughly outplay Zydrunas Illgauskas, Bosh, Juwan Howard, and Joel Anthony. With the point guard and pivot play favoring Boston, James and Wade will have to seriously dominate Pierce and Allen, and with the way Boston defends, I don’t think they will. Boston will win the rebounding battle and thus be able to turn this into a half court series. Neither team is great in the half court, but I trust Boston to execute better, especially in the clutch. If James and Wade are jump shooters all series, the Heat can’t win.
Prediction: Boston in 6
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #3 Dallas Mavericks
Considering the perennial success of both these teams, it comes as a surprise that Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki have never faced each other in a playoff series. Dallas proved their worth by beating a tough Portland team in round one, and while LA started slowly, they easily rolled over an undermanned Hornets squad. In terms of matchups, Dallas just isn’t constructed to give the Lakers issues. What traditionally confounds LA are a quick, penetrating point guard and size to battle the Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom trio. Jason Kidd is not exactly that dynamic point guard, and Jason Terry, who provides scoring off the bench, doesn’t get in the lane. Rodrigue Beaubois, the one player for Dallas that might be able to cause problems with his speed, has been out all postseason with a foot injury. The Mavs also don’t really have a guy capable of making Bryant uncomfortable. Shawn Marion’s best days are certainly behind him, and he’s a liability on offense. Conversely, Peja Stojakovic couldn’t guard a statue, though he provides three point shooting. DeShawn Stevenson doesn’t play very much but could guard Kobe when he sees the floor. The problem there is that Stevenson isn’t a smart defender. He tends to go for head fakes, overplay his man, and commit silly fouls. Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler, especially Chandler, provide adequate length, shot blocking, and rebounding to battle with Gasol, Bynum, and Odom, but they won’t score much at all. Gasol, Odom, Ron Artest, and Matt Barnes off the bench can all bring a different element guarding Nowitzki; he will have to work for his points. Basically, Dallas has nobody to stop Bryant, and LA has multiple guys capable of frustrating Nowitzki. Add to that the Lakers’ skill inside and quality depth, and this should be a one-sided series.
Prediction: Lakers in 5
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies
It’s just a bad joke that the Thunder is a 4 seed. They are on par with the Lakers, Heat, Bulls, and Celtics as championship favorites, and I expect them to prove their excellence again against Memphis. Don’t get me wrong, Memphis can play, and they’ll make life hard for OKC, but the Thunder just have more guns to fire than the Grizzlies do. Zach Randolph is a tremendous player, but he’s the third best player in this series behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Additionally, Randolph will have his work cut out, posting against the best one-on-one pivot defender in the NBA, Kendrick Perkins. Add the shot blocking of Serge Ibaka, the length of Nazr Mohammed, and the size/energy of Nick Collison, and the Thunder will have plenty of options to throw at Randolph and Marc Gasol. In the half-court though, Memphis will have some advantages. The Thunder have no post player capable of providing reliable scoring, whereas Randolph is as efficient as it gets on the low block, and Gasol is a pretty adept offensive player that shoots at a great percentage. Durant may find operating in the half-court difficult as well with the tremendous defender, Shane Battier, shadowing him for most of the game. Strong and athletic swing-man Sam Young may also cover Durant adequately. Westbrook is impossible to stay in front of, but Mike Conley, OJ Mayo, and Tony Allen is as good a group as possible for trying to slow him down. I think both defenses in this series will control the game, but ultimately Durant and Westbrook will have a little easier time against their defenders than Randolph and Gasol will have against the vicious combo of Perkins and Ibaka. Mayo and Conley have to score well in this series to support Randolph and to give the Grizzlies any chance. On the other hand, Durant and Westbrook are assured of scoring, and if James Harden can up his level of play, this could be a quick series.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
--from Adam
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