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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam
Showing posts with label NFC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFC. Show all posts

May 16, 2011

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons gave up two first round picks, a second, and a fourth to move up and select Alabama receiver Julio Jones.  Julio, you better be Jerry Rice my man.  That is a ton to give up, but I’m evaluating the players Atlanta added in this particular draft and not what they may have cost themselves in the long run.

I worry about the pressure on Jones, knowing how much this franchise gave up just for him, but then I realize just what type of player he is.  Jones projects as a Pro Bowl talent at receiver.  If he can stay healthy, he comes into a team that should be a perfect fit for him: opposite All-Pro Roddy White, hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez carves out space in the middle, young star Matt Ryan delivers passes, and perhaps the league’s best trio of running backs in Michael Turner, Jason Snelling, and Jerious Norwood top it off.  In other words, Jones was the icing on the cake of an offense ready to explode.

In the third round Atlanta took inside linebacker Akeem Dent, who has the range to also play outside.  He’s a solid player that could start eventually.

Next, in the fifth round Atlanta selected the jitterbug Jacquizz Rogers; I really like that pick value wise.  Rogers can run between the tackles despite his 5’7” frame, and he has the perfect quickness, shiftiness, and lateral agility to be a slot receiver and kick returner.  Jones and Rodgers make this Falcons team much more explosive on offense.

Other than Jones, Dent, and Rodgers, the Falcons didn’t get much.  I guess you could say they didn’t have huge needs, but they rounded out their draft taking a sixth round kicker, and two seventh rounders on the offensive and defensive lines, respectively.  This team needed help in the pass rush department and in the secondary.  They didn’t get it.

The Falcons’ defense was decent last year, but as we saw in the 48-21 playoff torching to the Packers, it was a unit that needed improvement.  Dent is a nice player, but he does nothing dramatic to improve the Falcon defense.  They needed multiple high picks to make their defense tangibly better, and they didn’t make them.  On the bright side, the addition of Jones and Rodgers may have created the most talented offense in the league.  Perhaps Atlanta figures they aren’t far from winning a Super Bowl, and by loading up on offense, they can afford a so-so defense.  They got great talent but didn’t fill nearly enough needs.

Grade: C

Carolina Panthers

With the number one overall pick you have to draft a potential franchise changer.  Picking first in the draft means shelling out a huge amount of money, so getting a hugely talented player that can drastically alter the fortunes of your franchise is imperative.  Normally that means taking a quarterback because that position impacts the game of football more than any other.  However you feel about Cam Newton, he was the right pick.

Newton was the biggest athletic talent in the draft.  He’s not Vince Young; he’s a better athlete, smarter person, tougher mentally, and better passer.  He’s not Tim Tebow; Newton has much better throwing mechanics, physical stature, and running ability.  What Newton is is a guy that endured a white hot spotlight amidst a college football scandal and still went 14-0 in college football’s toughest conference.  He’s cocky, but that’s what I want from my franchise quarterback.  Newton could bust—that’s always a possibility—but if he works as hard as he can on the mental and technical aspects of the game, he can be a superstar.

All that said, in picking Newton the Panthers still have a ton of needs to address and must decide what to do with last year’s second round pick Jimmy Clausen.  I’ve long been a Clausen proponent, but clearly the Panthers don’t believe in him.  

After Newton the Panthers had no second round pick but two third rounders and grabbed two defensive tackles, addressing a big need.  Terrell McClain is an All-Big East player from South Florida that is stout, and has quick feet.  The Panthers’ next third round pick, Sione Fua from Stanford, is strong, plays with a low base, and is excellent against the run.  The Panthers may not have gotten two star defensive tackles, but they certainly got players who will see the field early and be part of a rotation inside.

Next, in the fourth round the Panthers continued to build their defense by selecting Brandon Hogan, a corner from West Virginia.  He may have been a reach, but certainly corner was a need area.  He’s small but smart, quick, and smooth, perhaps an ideal nickel cover man.

Carolina reached for Hawaii’s jack of all trades, Kealoha Pilares, in the fifth round.  Many thought he might go undrafted, so going in the fifth was a surprise.  Still, if he pans out, he’s a versatile player that can play slot receiver, take handoffs, and perhaps return kicks.

In the sixth round the Panthers added another defender in linebacker Lawrence Wilson.  Though undersized and lacking great athleticism, Wilson is smart, can tackle, and covers extremely well.

This draft is all about Cam Newton.  If he pans out, it’s a huge success; if he busts, it’s an all-time failure.  I liked that they drafted four defensive players that can make the team and contribute in the later rounds, but I didn’t like that they failed to add any dynamic offensive talent to assist Newton.  I like Newton so the grade won’t be horrible, but I think they played it too safe in the rest of the draft.

Grade: C

New Orleans Saints

It’s always hard not to get carried away with a team’s draft anytime they have two first round picks.  You know both players well, have seen them play, and expect them to be starters, perhaps even big-time players.

Cameron Jordan, the defensive end from California, fits a need for the Saints, and getting him at pick 24 was probably a steal.  He was a top-15 or -20 talent who brings pass rush, versatility, and run stuffing ability to an improving defensive line.  Jordan will now join young stud Sedrick Ellis, behemoth Shaun Rogers, and pass rush specialist Will Smith to form an imposing defensive front.

When the Saints won the Super Bowl, a really underrated part of their success was their rushing attack.  They should get back to that formula with the 28th overall pick Mark Ingram.   Solid, balanced, and strong, Ingram has good burst through the hole and excellent vision.  He could start immediately.

Martez Wilson (LB, Illinois) was a really nice addition in the third round.  He’s a tremendous athlete and fits the fast and furious front seven Gregg Williams and the Saints appear to be developing.  Flanking Jonathan Vilma, Wilson has the speed to run with any tight end, rush the passer, and track down running backs.

Louisville corner Johnny Patrick may have been a slight reach in the third round, but he joins Tracy Porter, Jabari Greer, and last year’s top pick Patrick Robinson to form a really deep cornerback group.  Johnny Patrick is a smart corner who is skilled enough to contribute right away and add good depth to an already talented secondary.

After Johnny Patrick the Saints didn’t pick again until the seventh round, but I think they made huge strides with their first four picks.

Cameron Jordan can be a star, and will likely start right away.  Martez Wilson also has a great shot to start, and certainly upgrades the Saints’ linebacking corps.  Johnny Patrick simply adds depth to what is becoming a very good secondary.  These three defensive picks may vault the Saints toward having a truly elite defense.

New Orleans needs almost nothing on offense with Drew Brees, a great offensive line, and an array of talented receivers.  One thing missing was a true feature back, and I believe they got that in spades by selecting Ingram.   The Saints got better everywhere they needed to, and added at least two, maybe four, starting- to star-level players.

Grade: A-

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Just pause and think for a minute about the talent the NFC South added to their division in this draft.  Cameron Jordan, Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, Jacquizz Rogers, Cam Newton, and now the Bucs add Adrian Clayborn, Da’Quan Bowers, and Mason Foster.

Clayborn is going to be good no matter what; I just don’t know if he’ll be great.

Bowers was the steal of the draft in the mid-second round after many thought he could be the first overall pick.  There is concern about his knee, but what player in the NFL won’t have injury issues at some point?

Foster was a tremendous value in the third round.  Scouts love his range, versatility, and playmaking ability, maybe the best 4-3 outside linebacker in the draft.

Luke Stocker is a big bruising tight end from Tennessee that will bring soft hands and physical blocking to an up-and-coming Bucs offense.  Stocker was a good value in the fourth round.

Ahmad Black was nothing but productive as a safety at Florida.  He might not have the combine numbers, but he’s a darn good football player that could start down the line.

Clayborn, Bowers, Foster, Stocker, and Black are all capable of starting, and the first three mentioned could be stars.  The Bucs’ offensive line and skills positions are already young and filled with good players, so the defense was really the area of need, and they addressed it beautifully.

Grade: A

--from Adam

May 11, 2011

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC North

Chicago Bears

I don’t care what you tell me, the Bears weren’t that good of a football team last year.  They only made the NFC Title game because they got to play the Seahawks in the Divisional Round.  Chicago ranked 28th in passing offense, 22nd in rushing offense, 20th defending the pass, and 2nd defending the run.  Their only true strength was stopping the run, Jay Cutler was as erratic as ever, the offensive line ranged from abysmal to serviceable, and the pass coverage was inconsistent.  The Bears have a lot of holes to address, and they only had five picks to fill those holes in this draft.

In the first round picking offensive tackle Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin) was a great move.  Ready to start from day one, Carimi could turn into a dominant run blocker.  Physically, Carimi won’t be overmatched by anyone at 6’7” and 315 pounds.  Despite his enormous frame and brute strength, Carimi is light on his feet and quite adept in pass protection.  I believe he should be solid immediately and could develop into an elite, Pro Bowl player.

The Bears’ second round pick, Oregon State defensive tackle Stephen Paea, builds on an existing strength, their run defense.  Paea will likely take the place of oft-injured Tommie Harris in the middle of the line, and he should do a good job of it.  Incredibly strong (a record 49 reps at the combine) Paea also has surprising quickness off the snap.  He won’t rush the passer, but he’ll be a force against the run.

Those two players, while good, essentially make up the core of the Bear’s draft class.  Nathan Enderle is a project quarterback from Idaho the Bears selected in the fifth round.  He won’t see the field unless a few people get injured, and I think the Bears could have addressed their receiving corps, offensive line, or secondary with the pick.

They did get defensive back Chris Conte from California in the late third round, which fits a big need.  Conte is a safety converted from cornerback and was a late riser on draft boards.   He should contribute early and bolster the secondary.

The Bears did well with their first three picks: Carimi, Paea, and Conte.  The first two should start right away and Conte will contribute on defense and special teams.  Enderle was a head scratching pick, and while the Bears filled some big needs, they have many holes remaining.  The picks they made were good, but they needed more of them.

Grade: C+

Detroit Lions

Don’t look now, but the Lions have drafted extremely well recently.  Matt Stafford looks like a star talent when he’s healthy.  Calvin Johnson is the most physically imposing receiver in the league.  Last year Ndamukong Suh may have been the most dominant rookie of the past decade.  Jhavid Best, Louis Delmas, and Brandon Pettigrew all look to have promising futures in this league as well.  Detroit is becoming a talented team, year by year adding big time players.

In 2011 enter Nick Fairley.  Maybe Fairley didn’t fit a huge need, but getting one of the five best players in this draft at pick 14 was too good to pass up.  Fairley now pairs with Suh to create what should be one of the most feared defensive fronts in the NFL for the next 8-10 years.  Don’t forget Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams, and Cliff Avril, all quality players still in the mix too.

Second round pick Titus Young (WR, Boise State) is the perfect foil to the gargantuan Johnson: small, quick, precise in his routes, and has very good speed.  He’s a smart player that catches the ball almost every time and can even help in the return game.

Then at pick 25 in the second round, Detroit got what I think was a first round talent in Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure.  Rated by some as the best running back in this draft, Leshoure is big at 6’0” and 227 pounds, very strong, and has enough speed with a 4.56 40.  He’s the physical back Detroit has been missing, a guy that can carry the ball effectively 20 times per game.  Leshoure should perfectly complement the scat back contributions of Best, and together they could form one of the league’s best young backfields.  Stafford, Best, Leshoure, Johnson, Pettis, and Pettigrew are a really impressive nucleus of young talent on the offensive side of the ball.

Though the first three picks were, I thought, fantastic, the Lions only selected two more players in the whole draft.  Fifth rounder Douglas Hoge (LB, Syracuse) is an athletic player who will most likely find his niche on special teams.  Johnny Culbreath in the seventh round is an offensive tackle who has an outside chance at making the team.

Fairley and Leshoure can be Pro Bowl players in my opinion, and I love that the Lions just decided “Hey, wouldn’t it be cool to have the best defensive tackle duo in the league for the next decade?”  Pettis, an excellent slot receiver and multi-purpose player, could take this offense to another level.  Like the Bears, Detroit only had a few nice picks and not much else, but the Lions’ top three choices really blew me away.

Grade: B+

Green Bay Packers

The Packers had the luxury of having minimal needs heading into this draft.  They’re coming off a Super Bowl performance in which several key starters weren’t even healthy enough to play, and they still won.  With most of those starters back in the fold this coming year, in effect this draft was just icing to an already scrumptious cake.

If there was a need on this team, it was offensive line.  Sure that unit was solid last year, but it wasn’t spectacular.  It’s aging in spots, and Aaron Rodgers is the single most important player in the league to protect.  With that, I loved the pick of Mississppi State tackle Derek Sherrod with the last pick in the first round.  He is a solid, first round talent, and many projected him to go higher than thirty-second.  At 6’5”, 321 pounds, he has the prototypical build to play offensive tackle in the NFL.  Having started his last three seasons, 50 total games in the rugged SEC, Sherrod should be used to pressure environments and a high level of physicality.  He’s quick for his size, smart, and has long arms.

Sherrod certainly brings a great attitude and an immense amount of talent to an improving Packer line.  Providing depth behind the Packers’ two starting tackles Brian Bulaga and the aging but still productive Chad Clifton, Sherrod may even slide in to play guard.  Bulaga, Sherrod, and guard Josh Sitton create a wonderful young foundation for the Green Bay offensive line.

If it’s possible, I like the Packers’ second round choice even more than their first.  Drafting a receiver wasn’t a need, but in getting Kentucky wideout Randall Cobb, the Packers took an already electric offense to off the charts territory.  Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson represent the league’s best receiving corps, but none of those guys is the smallish, cat-quick, slot-type receiver that can find openings underneath defenses.  Cobb is that man.  He has a lightning quick first step and is surprisingly strong, which helps him get his release off the line of scrimmage.  Plus, he has great hands and runs tremendous routes.  Scouts say football is his first love and they expect him to be a dedicated pro.  Cobb also brings intriguing talent to the return game, where his sudden quickness and agility might lead to some game-breaking returns.

In the third round the Packers continued to add weapons to the arsenal by bringing in the talented and bruising running back from Hawaii, Alex Green.  Green is 6’0”, 225 pounds and ran a 4.45 40-yard dash.  A punishing, make-one-cut-and-go runner with surprisingly good hands and very good acceleration, Green should make an impact right away, especially in short yardage situations.

The Green Bay receiving corps is deep, but the running back group is stockpiled as well with returning star Ryan Grant, last year’s breakout performer James Starks, and the rookie Green.  When the Packers run the ball, they’ll have an improved line and three talented backs to give the ball to.

In the fourth round the Packers continue their perfect weekend by selecting New Mexico State corner Davon House, who many had rated as a mid-second round prospect.  House will join the stud group of Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields.  If House is ready to make an impact as a nickel corner, that will free up Woodson even more to continue to rove between safety, corner, and blitz linebacker.  Essentially, the selection of House makes the league’s best secondary even more versatile.

In the fifth round, the Packers were clearly trying to make my head explode when they got my top-rated tight end in the draft, Arkansas’ DJ Williams.  Williams played in Bobby Petrino’s pro-style offense, had laser-armed quarterback in Ryan Mallett, and was hugely productive in the toughest college conference, the SEC.  At 6’2” and 245 pounds, Williams joins Cobb as a great middle of the field target.  He will be a nightmare for linebackers or safeties to cover with his 4.59 40 speed, soft hands, and great route running.

Williams and the returning mega-talent Jermichael Finley give the Packers the best tight end duo in the league.  Add to that to the best quarterback in the league, the best receiving corps in the league, a three deep running back rotation, and a much improved offensive line. Shnikees.

The Packers finished out the draft by adding depth and developmental players to the offensive and defensive lines.  Guard Caleb Schlauderaff from Utah was a nice pick in the fifth round.  He’s not overly talented but was a third team All-American as a senior and started virtually his entire career at Utah.  He’s considered a guy that should make the team, provide quality depth, and maybe even challenge for a starting spot.  The Pack may have also nabbed a steal in the sixth round with defensive lineman Ricky Elmore, who has a really quick first step and a knack for getting to the quarterback.

A team that didn’t need much improvement drastically improved.  They got a stud offensive tackle and a guard that should certainly make their final roster.  They got the one type of receiver they’ve been missing, a lightning-quick slot man who also returns kicks.  They added a physical, fast, punishing back to an already talented backfield.  They got a cornerback in the fourth round that could have gone early in the second and will give an already versatile secondary even more options.  They also got the best tight end in the draft, and can now pair him with the most athletically gifted tight end in the league.  With the coaching the Packers have in place, all of these players can reach their highest potential, and that is a frightening for the rest of the league.

Grade: A+

Minnesota Vikings

Maybe Christian Ponder will be a really nice quarterback in this league.  He’s athletic with a good but not great arm, a very talented player.  But that’s not quite the point.  Just like Jake Locker—who went eighth to the Titans—Ponder could have been had later in the draft, perhaps in the second round.  I suppose if the Vikings loved Ponder, it’s an okay move, but why not try to move back in the draft, accrue more picks, and look for Ponder in round two?

I digress…onto Ponder as a prospect.  With good size at 6’2” and 230 pounds, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.63 seconds, joining Locker, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick in what was an incredibly athletic QB class.  Ponder is a good kid that wants to win and was a leader at Florida State.  When he makes the correct read, he can be very accurate.  It’s just that he often has trouble reading defenses and makes a lot of ill-advised throws.  That only figures to get worse as a rookie starter in the NFL.  Ponder may well get to an elite level, but it’s going to take at least three years.

On the bright side for Ponder, he’s stepping into a system with weapons like Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, and fellow rookie Kyle Rudolph.  Notre Dame’s Rudolph was widely regarded as the best tight end in this draft.  He’s a big, smooth athlete with soft hands, good speed, good size, that came from a pro system.  He’s an effective route runner as well, the type of player that could be good right away but may never be great.

I really like their next three picks.  Christian Ballard (DL, Iowa) is a really good player that could have gone in the late second round, but the Vikings got him in the fourth.   At 6’4” and 283 pounds, he is big and strong enough to play defensive tackle.  Running a 4.75 40 at Ballard’s size was also very impressive, which indicates he’s athletic enough to be a pass rushing end as well.  Versatile, talented, and tough, if nothing else, Ballard provides quality depth to the line in his first season.

Getting Utah corner Brandon Burton in the fifth round may have been a slight steal; he definitely adds depth to a position of need on the Vikings.  His measureables aren’t mind blowing, but they’re adequate, and he’s a smart, instinctive, and tough player.

Demarcus Love (OT, Arkansas) was a great value in the sixth.  At 6’4” and 315, Love is a strong run blocker that could move to guard in the NFL.  He’s an imposing, nasty presence that started 37 games in the SEC and was a team captain.  In other words, he’s been through a lot of wars in the trenches of a tough conference and was a leader on his team.

Ponder was taken too high, but he is a gifted player and the Vikings needed a quarterback badly.  Rudolph adds a really nice talent to an already loaded offense.  Ballard and Burton will both see the field and could become starters, and I think the selection of Love will reap immediate benefits.  The Vikes also had five more developmental picks in the late sixth and seventh rounds.  One or two of those players will probably surprise and make the team.  Overall the Vikings got better in this draft, and the only time they reached was on a very talented player at a position of major need.

Grade: B

--from Adam

May 4, 2011

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas needed to get younger and more athletic on the offensive line, and by drafting USC offensive tackle Tyron Smith, they did exactly that.  Smith was the most physically talented pass protector in the draft, so getting him 9 was a fine value.

Bruce Carter (LB, North Carolina) in the second round maybe wasn’t a huge need, but he can provide a big time pass rush opposite Demarcus Ware.

Getting DeMarco Murray in the third round didn’t make a whole lot of sense, though I perceive him as a first round talent, so I can’t kill the move too much.  With Marion Barber growing older and Felix Jones’ injury issues, perhaps Murray could find some carries in the crowded Cowboy backfield, Tashard Choice be damned.  He also has the speed and talent to play slot receiver and return kicks.  Murray might be the type of dynamic player that puts Dallas’ already talented offense over the top.

Fourth round pick David Arkin (OT/OG, Missouri State) is another good athlete to add to the aging Cowboys offensive line.  He might not be ready yet, but he could develop into a nice player.

Dwayne Harris (WR, East Carolina) is another player drafted to perhaps work out of the slot and return kicks.

They got the best tackle in the draft, and it fit their largest need.  Bruce Carter is a big time talent that could put the Dallas pass rush at an elite level.  DeMarco Murray wasn’t a real need but adds huge talent and big value in the third round.  I think Murray makes their pick of Dwayne Harris a little redundant.  They could have done more to address their secondary, but they got younger and better on the offensive line, and added quality talent in Murray and Carter.

Grade: B-

New York Giants

They needed to do more to upgrade their offensive line, but in terms of improving their defense, the Giants had one of the very best drafts of any team.  Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska) could have gone in the top-10, but New York got him at nineteenth.  Amukamara should be able to start—and play well—from Day One.  I think he’s an eventual Pro Bowl player.

Marvin Austin (DT, North Carolina) was another top-10 talent that the Giants this time nabbed in the second round.  He can play any position on the line and will make an early impact.  Austin joins Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, Matthias Kiwanuka, Osi Umenyiora, and Chris Canty to create maybe the best defensive line in football.  That front should harass any quarterback, and Amukamara should lock down receivers for years.

I also really like the Troy wide receiver Jerrel Jernigan in the third round.  The prototypical slot receiver, Jernigan’s a small but cat-quick player that runs good routes and will be impossible to cover in short spaces.  Jernigan completes an extremely talented receiving corps for New York.

Getting Greg Jones, the linebacker from Michigan State, was a robbery in the sixth round.  Jones was a star in college, tackles well, has solid range, is smart, and will start in this league.

James Brewer (OT, Indiana) was also a great value pick in the fourth.  At 6’6” and 325 pounds, he’s massive, strong, and athletic.  He has all the ability to develop into a starting player; it just may take a couple years.

They got two future stars among three starters for their defense.  That’s tremendous.  Jerrnigan provides an explosive dimension to their slot position and for kick returns, and Brewer could be a starter on the offensive line.  The only thing they could have done better is address the offensive line sooner.

Grade: A-

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia’s offensive line was shaky last year, and protecting Mike Vick is the most essential key to Eagles’ success.  So picking guard Danny Watkins (Baylor) in the first round was a great move.  He’s mature at age 26, athletic for the position, strong, and smart.  He can start right away next to Jason Peters and create a talented left side of the offensive line.

Secondary was a big area of need as well, and Philly spent their second and third round picks on guys—safety Jaiquawn Jarrett from Temple and corner Curtis Marsh from Utah State—that can help improve that unit immediately.  Jarrett is speedy enough for coverage, is a solid tackler, and smart player.  Marsh may have been a reach in the third, but at 6’1” and with 4.4 speed, he has the physical tools to succeed.

Oregon’s Casey Matthews joins the long line of Matthews’ to reach the NFL and provides a rangy, talented player for an Eagles linebacking corps in need of upgrades.  Matthews never stops attacking, and while he’s not the biggest or the fastest, he makes plays all over the field.

Getting Pittsburgh running back Dion Lewis in the fifth round was a steal.  He reminds me a lot of another current Eagle/former Pitt Panther, LeSean McCoy.  Lewis carried a huge load at Pittsburgh and is an incredibly talented and elusive runner.

Linebacker Brian Rolle from Ohio State was a good value in the sixth round.  He’s an experienced, smart player whose speed allows him to cover both tight ends and receivers.

The Eagles also added depth and developmental players by selecting two more offensive linemen in the fifth and sixth rounds.

They addressed their biggest needs drafting for the offensive line, secondary, and linebackers, which I really liked.  Even if I think they reached in places, they know more about the guys they selected than I do, and the continually well drafting Eagles must feel they can help.  I love Danny Watkins, they made their secondary deeper, and Dion Lewis will be a great addition to Philly’s already loaded set of skill players.

Grade: B+

Washington Redskins

I don’t know about Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue) in Round One.  He is a talented prospect who brings an edge rush, but if the Skins are playing a 3-4, he’s a bad fit.  He’s not big enough to play end in that system and not fluid enough to play outside linebacker.  Washington desperately needs a passer with Donovan McNabb assuredly headed out the door, and instead of taking Blaine Gabbert at pick 10, the Redskins traded back and selected an out of position defensive lineman.  I don’t understand that move.

Clemson defensive tackle Jarvis Jenkins was a good pick in the second round.  Jenkins is not a pass rush threat, but he does get off the ball quickly and will be a force against the run.  Certainly Washington has improved their front seven with Kerrigan and Jenkins joining stud linebacker Brian Orakpo.

Leonard Hankerson (WR, Miami) was a really good pick.  Washington has needed a number one type receiver for years now, and Hankerson has the size (6’2”, 210) and speed (4.40 40-yard dash) to fit that bill.

Roy Helu (RB, Nebraska) is seen as a reach, but I like the pick.  He’s got great playing speed, and he is a one-cut-and-go-type runner.  I think he will be a productive player in the NFL.

Evan Royster (RB, Penn State) was a workhorse in college and is a powerful runner.  Between Helu and Royster, the Skins certainly upgraded their backfield in the wake of the waived Clinton Portis.

Niles Paul (WR, Nebraska) is a physical specimen at 6’1”, 225 pounds that runs a 4.45 40-yard dash.  He has the physical tools to be a starter; he just needs to learn the position.

Washington also had six picks in the sixth and seventh rounds that they used on developmental players.

Since they didn’t draft a quarterback, Washington must think they are going to get a starter in free agency.  In that view, it’s not a bad thing that the Skins moved back in the draft.  They had lots of needs and accumulated lots of players.  Kerrigan and Jenkins should be starters and improve the front 7.  Hankerson has big time talent at wide out, a position of need.  They supplemented the running back spot with solid players and added a lot of developmental talent.  In all, they added at least five guys that will impact this team, and time will tell about the later round picks.  My only beefs are that Kerrigan doesn’t really fit their sytem, and maybe they should have taken a quarterback, but I understand addressing other areas.

Grade: B-

--from Adam

May 2, 2011

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC West

Grading this year’s draft is a little tricky because due to labor uncertainty, we have no idea what will happen in free agency.  A draft pick may start right away for a departing free agent or unexpectedly sit behind a future free agent acquisition not yet on the roster.  The point is you can’t entirely judge what a team did in this year’s draft until you see the whole offseason picture, which free agency is an integral part of.  So for now, let’s look at the quality of players each team selected and do some guess work as to how each team met their needs.

Arizona Cardinals

Most people are going to crush them for passing on Blaine Gabbert.  Not me.  If you don’t think that a guy is going to be a franchise player as a quarterback, you don’t pay him fifth overall money.  The Cardinals must not have loved any of the passers available, and you’d have to assume they will make a move for Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, or another veteran signal caller.  If Arizona does find a solid quarterback, they will have a nice team to surround him with due to a very good draft this year.

Picking Patrick Peterson was the best thing they could have done.  He was the best player in this draft, and they got him with the fifth pick.  Combined with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Peterson instantly gives Arizona an elite corner duo.  Keep in mind this is also a defense that already boasts Pro Bowlers in safety Adrian Wilson and Darnell Dockett as well as rising star Calais Campbell.

In the second round the Cards nabbed what I consider to be an immense talent in Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams.  He is an electric open field runner with great vision, elusiveness, and natural ability.  He can form a terrific backfield trio with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower.

In the third round the Cardinals added the freakishly athletic receiving tight end Robert Housler from Florida Atlantic.  A perfect middle of the field, red zone, and deep target to draw coverage away from Larry Fitzgerald, Housler is 6’5” and ran a 4.5 40 yard dash at the combine.

Quan Sturdivant (North Carolina) and Sam Acho (Texas) are a pair of linebackers that I believe can start in this league and will improve the Cardinals’ defense instantly.

If you read the tea leaves, it’s clear this draft set the table for a veteran quarterback to come in and guide the ship.  Whoever's brought in will have Williams and Wells to hand the ball to, Fitzgerald and Housler to throw to, and a much improved defense on the other side.  The only thing, and this is rather glaring, is that Arizona did nothing to help their below average offensive line.  I love the talent they acquired, and I think they got a number of steals, but they didn’t draft a single offensive lineman.

Grade: B+

San Francisco 49ers

Say what you want about taking Missouri pass rusher Aldon Smith seventh overall, but I like the pick.  Adding an outside pass rush was the 49ers’ biggest defensive need, and with Von Miller off the board, San Fran got the best available man.  It might have been a slight reach, but Smith is a very talented player that was valued as a top-15 talent who meets a pressing need.

In the second round the Niners made another good move by drafting the hugely gifted Colin Kaepernick from Nevada.  Certainly Kaepernick is a project, but there were no slam dunk passers in this draft, and by taking the Nevada quarterback in the second round, the 49ers will avoid paying him exorbitant money.  Behind Cam Newton, Kaepernick was the most athletic quarterback in the draft.  Also, Kaepernick has the arm strength to make any throw, is considered very smart/coachable, and will be in the hands of quarterback guru Jim Harbaugh.  He won’t play immediately, but he has the talent to be a very good starter down the road.

The Niners kill two birds with one stone in the third round by drafting the speedy corner from South Carolina, Chris Culliver.  He ran a 4.36 at the combine, has good coverage skills, and can return kicks.  He should compete for the nickel back spot.

Perhaps an heir apparent to Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter in the fourth round was a tremendous value.  Injuries and fumble issues prohibited the very talented Hunter from going as high as the second round.  If he gets 5-10 touches a game, he could make an impact right away.

Ronald Johnson, the wideout from USC, was a good value in the sixth round as a potential slot receiver and kick returner.  The Niners also drafted two offensive linemen, two defensive backs, and a defensive lineman in the later rounds to add depth, competition, and perhaps find an every down player.

The Niners reached a bit in the first round, and while Kaepernick can be a good quarterback, he won’t help right away.  Culliver may have been a reach in the third, but Hunter was a steal in the fourth.  The Niners stockpiled players and added depth to the undermanned secondary in the later rounds.

Grade: B-

Seattle Seahawks

The Alabama offensive lineman, James Carpenter, their first round pick, could have been had in the late second or early third rounds.  John Moffitt is a guard I really like from Wisconsin, but Seattle could have gotten him later too.

Mississippi State’s KJ Wright, linebacker, was a solid pick in the fourth round.  He’s very athletic and fits with the rangy duo of Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry.  The only thing is, linebacker is already a relative strength on Seattle, and the defensive front was really what needed attention.  Seattle proceeded to draft three defensive backs before adding their lone defensive lineman in the seventh round.

After having such a great draft last year, I guess Seattle was due for a stinker, and that’s precisely what they got.  This was a team that needed help at the skill positions and also along the defensive line.  They got none of that.  They reached big time with their first selection and invested their top two picks in guys that may both play guard.

Grade: D+

St. Louis Rams

In the first round the Rams continued to add talent to an up-and-coming young defense.  Robert Quinn, a defensive end from North Carolina, is an immense talent who comes with plenty of question marks after sitting out all of last year with a suspension.  If he lives up to his ability, the Rams got a steal to bookend the improving former #2 overall selection, Chris Long.

Sam Bradford was tremendous as a rookie despite his top targets—Mark Clayton and Donnie Avery—missing most of the season.  Even with those guys coming back, Bradford needs more help.  This draft brought it in spades.

The middle of the second round may have been a little high to take Wisconsin receiving tight end Lance Kendricks, but he is a tremendous option in the middle of the field that has more than enough speed to outrun safeties and stretch defenses.

Austin Pettis in the third round adds another big target to Bradford’s arsenal.  At 6’3” and over 200 pounds, Pettis can be the possession receiver that complements the smaller and quicker combo of Avery and Clayton.

For good measure, the Rams selected yet another receiver with their next pick, taking Greg Salas from Hawaii.  Salas too is a big wideout at 6’2”, 206 pounds that comes from a pass-happy system in Hawaii.

You might think this is too much attention to one area of need, but the Rams’ offensive line is a good unit, and Stephen Jackson is a star running back, so receivers really were the only thing holding this offense back from being special.

In the late rounds the Rams drafted three defensive backs, the best of which may be Jermale Hines, a physical safety from Ohio State.  They also added a mostly unknown prospect, Jabara Williams to the linebacking corps, who will hope to make the team as a special teams player.

Robert Quinn has lots of red flags, but if he works out, he is an impact player added to an improving defense that was solid but unspectacular last year.  The Rams probably should have used one of the three picks they spent on receivers to add another playmaking defender.  Kendricks was probably a reach, though I think he will be a good starter in the NFL.  Pettis and Salas should make the team, but I don’t know if either will be special.  Still, Sam Bradford is the franchise, and management has now surrounded him with solid protection, a great running back, and a bevy of diverse, young pass catchers.

Grade: C+

--from Adam

July 27, 2010

Division Breakdown: NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

This team is loaded with talent.  Tony Romo commands a load of skill players including Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten.  The defense is talented with Jay Ratliff manning the nose and DeMarcus Ware terrorizing quaretbacks off the edge.  Mike Jenkins and Terrance Newman are as good a corner duo as there is.  Wade Phillips will likely be on the hot seat again all year and that might increase pressure on this team who must perform and make a deep playoff run this year.  The offensive line is old and worrisome.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have a ton of young talent and I think Kevin Kolb is ready to be a good starter.  He will be aided by young studs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, not to mention second-year running back LeSean McCoy.  The offensive line is talented but inconsistent.  Brandon Graham fits the Eagles' system perfectly and should really help their pass rush.  Trent Cole is a Pro Bowl defensive end and Brodrick Bunkley and Mike Patterson are a nice, young defensive tackle duo.  Ernie Sims joins the fold, improving a decent linebacking core.  Asante Samuel is still a top corner; unfortunately safety Marlin Jackson is out for the year.  This team has a load of talent but may be a year away from winning the division.

New York Giants

The Giants' offensive and defensive lines were absolutely dominant two years ago, but have struggled recently.  Eli Manning has plateaued as a good-but-not-great QB.  Steve Smith and Mario Manningham are nice, young receiving threats.  Running backs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have to be more productive than they were a year ago.  First-round pick Jason Pierre-Paul may not be ready to contribute this year.  Chris Canty, Justin Tuck, and Mathias Kiwanuka need to be consistent.  Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle are a talented safety duo.  Despite a handful of talented players, no one overwhelms and overall this is a team on the decline.

Washington Redskins


Donovan McNabb makes the Redskins a better team, but not as much as people think.  He is aging and will be playing behind a poor offensive line without great offensive weapons.  Albert Haynesworth is going to be a problem.  If he plays motivated, a big 'if,' a $100 million 'if,' he is a huge force that complements pass rusher Andre Carter.  Brian Orakpo is a beast off the edge and London Fletcher is still productive.  LaRon Landry is a hammer at safety and Carlos Rogers and Deangelo Hall are talented but inconsistent corners.  McNabb will have his work cut out for him leading this team of oversized personalities.  The talent is there but I think this team will struggle with all the changes.


Final Standings

Dallas Cowboys 11-5
Philadelphia Eagles 9-7
New York Giants 9-7
Washington Redskins 7-9

Division Breakdown: NFC North

Green Bay Packers

The Packers should be potent offensively with Aaron Rodgers dishing to Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Ryan Grant, and receiving improved protection.  Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton held up nicely last year but both appear to be on their last legs.  If they can make it through this year and Bryan Bulaga, first-round tackle, can slide in to play guard, we could see a much improved unit.  The defense should be stout with a nice front of BJ Raji, Ryan Pickett, and Cullen Jenkins holding up blockers for Clay Matthews and Nick Barnett at linebacker.  Corner is a concern with aging Al Harris coming of an ACL tear and Charles Woodson not getting any younger.  Nick Collins and Atari Bigby bring the pain at safety and make a lot of plays.  With health and some luck this team could win the Super Bowl.

Minnesota Vikings

Brett Favre is coming back and joins a very talented offense, yet he will not be as productive after taking another year of hits, and teams watching the blueprint provided by the Saints in the NFC title game: hit Brett hard.   Adrian Peterson is a super star, but this team will miss do-everything back Chester Taylor.  Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin are ultra talented, both deep threats, and should continue to improve.  Visanthe Shiancoe is a nice tight end.  The offensive line is aging and played inconsistently down the stretch last year, a bad sign when you start a 41-year-old quarterback.  The defense should be dominant again with Jared Allen and the Williams boys forming the best defensive line in football.  EJ Henderson is declining and injury prone but Chad Greenway is a nice young linebacker.  Antoine Winfield is on a major decline and Cedric Griffin is just so-so in coverage.  Draftee Chris Cook will help this secondary somewhat but may not be ready yet.  If Favre is great again this team can win the whole deal, but I say we see a slip in production.

Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler had an enormously disappointing 2009 but I think that was more of an aberration.  He still will take snaps from a shaky line and does not seem to have a go-to receiver.  Look for Devin Hester to go back to a more slot receiving/kick returning role.  Mike Martz comes in to run the offense but is notorious for minimizing the tight end, which would be a mistake given that Greg Olsen is the Bears' most talented receiving threat.  Hopefully Martz won't abandon the run either as Matt Forte and Chester Taylor create a formidable duo.  Defensively, Julius Peppers can be an absolute force when motivated, and if he plays at the top of his game he can open things up for super talented but oft-injured defensive tackle Tommie Harris.  Brian Urlacher returns from a wrist injury but may actually have benefited from a year away from the football grind and could come back better than ever.  Lance Briggs is good but slightly overrated.  The secondary is patchwork.  This team has some talented players but too many holes to overcome.
 
Detroit Lions

The Lions finally have promise coming into a season, but don't expect a playoff run just yet.  I think Matthew Stafford will eventually be a better player than Mark Sanchez; the kid has huge ability and a competitive fire.  Calvin Johnson is as talented and athletic as any player in football.  Although they had to trade Ernie Sims to get him, Tony Scheffler is a very nice receiving tight end and will complement emerging second year player Brandon Pettigrew.  Kevin Smith is solid at running back but nothing special.  Jahvid Best could be the playmaker this offense needs; he is lightning quick and can help enormously in the return game.  The offensive line still needs fixing, but this young crop of playmakers could eventually form one of the best offenses in football.  I love what the Lions have done defensively, save for trading Ernie Sims.  Ndamukong Suh is going to be a great player, and the Lions surrounded him with veteran help up front signing Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams. This defensive line has the potential to be very good this year.  The linebacking corps is suspect outside of Julian Peterson, as is the secondary.  However, second year safety Louis Delmas could be a Pro Bowler this year.  This is a team on the rise; with one more good draft they could be playoff bound.


Final Standings

Green Bay Packers 11-5
Minnesota Vikings 11-5
Chicago Bears 7-9
Detroit Lions 6-10