NFC South: 2011 Division Preview

Atlanta Falcons

Since the latest division realignment, no team has ever repeated as NFC South Champion.  Yet despite that fact, both Adam and I predict the unprecedented.  We both call for the Atlanta Falcons to repeat and claim a hotly contested NFC South crown.

After finishing an NFC-best 13-3 in 2010, the Falcons did not want to mess with formula too much this offseason.  Atlanta made some headlining moves but not sweeping changes like the formerly 11-5 Eagles.  Chief among them was trading away two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and two fourth-round picks to move up in the draft and select Julio Jones.  Though the Falcons are a talented offensive team, they lack big play threats and gain their yards methodically.  Tales out of camp proclaim Jones as the real deal, perhaps just the player Atlanta needs to put them over the top.

Jones becomes a member football’s most balanced offense.  Last year the Falcons’ leading rusher, Michael Turner, ran for 1371 yards while the leading receiver, Roddy White, accumulated 1389.  The judicious Matt Ryan comes off his best year as a pro and looks to make up for an early playoff exit.

Ryan and his offensive mates were let down last year by an overmatched secondary versus the Packers.  The Falcons did not sign anyone directly to the secondary this offseason, but they did acquire one of the most talented pass rushers available, Ray Edwards.  On the other side of John Abraham, Edwards should continue to be blocked by just one man like he grew accustomed to in Minnesota, playing with Jared Allen and the Williams boys.  Improving the pass rush and pressuring quarterbacks should at least partially ease the burden on the secondary.

Biggest Strengths: The Big Three of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White being joined by Julio Jones.

Biggest Weaknesses: Secondary.  If getting torched by Aaron Rodgers for 366 yards and three touchdowns with an 86.1 completion percentage on your home turf isn’t a wakeup call, I don’t know what is.  You can bet the Saints watched that tape.

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, First in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, First in NFC South

New Orleans Saints

Though their regular season was no disappointment, the defending Super Bowl Champion losing a playoff game to a 7-9 team is an absolute embarrassment.  The New Orleans Saints must rebound with a vengeance to put that loss behind them.

I expect nothing less out of the incomparable Drew Brees.  In the perfect match of scheme to players, no one could better execute Sean Payton’s offense and spread the ball around than Brees.  Brees makes it look easy, throwing to receivers Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, and the young, athletic tight end Jimmy Graham.

With Brees getting all the pub, an extremely underrated piece to the Saints’ 2010 Championship puzzle was their running game.  Last season injuries decimated New Orleans’ running backs, but this year they’ve retooled and are ready to run.  After already making one selection in the first round, New Orleans traded up to make a second first-round pick, with which they took Alabama running back Mark Ingram.  His physicality will be a welcome change of pace from the quick Pierre Thomas.  Also in the backfield, New Orleans traded away Reggie Bush this offseason but replaced with him with the same type of player, signing free agent Darren Sproles.

To better combat the bruising Falcons, the Saints made themselves much tougher up front by bringing in two monster defensive tackles: Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers.  Beastly Sedrick Ellis joins those two to form the best defensive tackle rotation in the NFL.  Life should be easier on the edge for the veterans Will Smith and Alex Brown and the Saints’ first first-round pick, rookie Cameron Jordan.

This season Jonathan Vilma should rack up well over 100 tackles since (A) Ellis, Franklin, and Rogers will adeptly occupy blockers in front of him, and (B) the Saints don’t have any other surefire tacklers in the linebacking corps.

My pick for the Saints’ top defensive player, Malcolm Jenkins—who did not play in the playoff loss to the Seahawks—and Tracy Porter make up one half of a very good secondary.  Between last year’s first-round pick, Patrick Robinson, and a few other veterans, the Saints should be able to field a solid second half.

Biggest Strengths: Drew Brees and his toys.

Biggest Weaknesses: Other than Jonathan Vilma, the linebackers don’t blow you away.

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, Second in NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A year ago the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a team that beat everyone on their schedule they should have beaten but no one perhaps they shouldn’t have.  It’ll take winning a few of those games in the latter category if they want to take the NFC South Title.  (Their only win against an above-.500 team last year came Week 17 against the Saints, who rested many of their starters.)

The future is bright in Tampa though.  The Buccaneers are a very young team with a rising star quarterback, Josh Freeman.  In just his second year in the league, Freeman posted a 96 passer rating, throwing 25 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions.  He was also the second-leading rusher among NFL quarterbacks with 364 yards on the ground.  At 6’6”, 250 pounds and with top-5 arm strength, the kid is already awesome and has unlimited potential to boot.  Based on Freeman’s smarts, work ethic, and the situation he currently finds himself in, it’s no stretch to believe Freeman completely fulfills his potential this season.

As for weapons at Freeman’s disposal, Mike Williams had a great rookie season last year, and another 2010 rookie, Arrelious Benn, continues to ascend on the opposite side.  Sammie Stroughter and Michael Spurlock solidly round out the receiving corps.  Over the middle, the Bucs have one of the league’s top tight ends in Kellen Winslow Jr., who despite a reputation for being injury-prone, has played in all sixteen games both of his seasons as a Buccaneer.

Davin Joseph, Jeff Faine, and Donald Penn constitute a sound unit along the offensive line.  They protected well and provided ample running room last year for rookie LeGarrette Blount.  If Blount can repeat his success, the Tampa Bay offense can be very good.

In each of the past two years, Tampa Bay spent their first two draft picks on defensive linemen.  Last year they acquired Gerald McCoy and Brian Price and this year nabbed Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers.  McCoy and Price certainly did not set the world on fire in 2010, so let’s hope those two can progress and the Bucs do a little better with their choices of Clayborn and Bowers this season.

Behind that line of high draft picks though, there’s not much discernable talent on defense.  The team’s leading tackler, Barrett Ruud, departed via free agency; cornerback Ronde Barber is 300 years old; and on the other side of Barber is the talented but complete head case Aqib Talib.

Biggest Strengths: Raheem Morris rallying this young team around Josh Freeman.

Biggest Weaknesses: Inexperience across the board and an overall lack of defensive talent.

Eric’s Prediction: 9-7, Third in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 11-5, Third in NFC South

Carolina Panthers

Lights.  CAM-era.  Action.  (Adam said I had to write that.)

By drafting Cam Newton with the first overall pick, the Carolina Panthers certainly look like they are Newton’s team.  Newton has played well enough in the preseason for that to be the case as well.  What the future holds for Jimmy Clausen, Hill 364’s top quarterback prospect from a year ago, remains to be seen.

The Panthers will surround their rookie signal caller with a modest amount of established players.  One cannot argue with the smash and dash of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  It is up to the Panthers to utilize both runners to the best of their abilities.  Carolina is still searching for the heir apparent to Steve Smith, but for now, Steve Smith will have to do.  Athletic tight end Greg Olsen did not fit in Mike Martz’s offense, so Chicago traded him to Carolina, where he will be a valued safety net for a rookie quarterback learning the NFL ropes.

Defensively, Charles Johnson parlayed an 11.5-sack season out from underneath Julius Peppers’ shadow into a big payday.  We’ll see if he produces at the same clip now that he flies a little less under the radar and teams prepare for him.  I happen to think Jon Beason is a bit overrated as he’s by far the best player on a bad defense, but I will admit that on the Panthers he’s a tackling machine that lays the wood.

Biggest Strengths: Carolina’s offensive line featuring Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah is one of the best in football, and they love blowing open holes for the talented DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Biggest Weaknesses: A recognizable defense, they don’t have it.  If the rookie Cam Newton doesn’t start, their other two options are Jimmy Clausen and Derek Anderson, and neither of those guys instill any confidence whatsoever.

Eric’s Prediction: 1-15, Fourth in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in NFC South

--from @jeuneski

NFL Draft Grades 2011: NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons gave up two first round picks, a second, and a fourth to move up and select Alabama receiver Julio Jones.  Julio, you better be Jerry Rice my man.  That is a ton to give up, but I’m evaluating the players Atlanta added in this particular draft and not what they may have cost themselves in the long run.

I worry about the pressure on Jones, knowing how much this franchise gave up just for him, but then I realize just what type of player he is.  Jones projects as a Pro Bowl talent at receiver.  If he can stay healthy, he comes into a team that should be a perfect fit for him: opposite All-Pro Roddy White, hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez carves out space in the middle, young star Matt Ryan delivers passes, and perhaps the league’s best trio of running backs in Michael Turner, Jason Snelling, and Jerious Norwood top it off.  In other words, Jones was the icing on the cake of an offense ready to explode.

In the third round Atlanta took inside linebacker Akeem Dent, who has the range to also play outside.  He’s a solid player that could start eventually.

Next, in the fifth round Atlanta selected the jitterbug Jacquizz Rogers; I really like that pick value wise.  Rogers can run between the tackles despite his 5’7” frame, and he has the perfect quickness, shiftiness, and lateral agility to be a slot receiver and kick returner.  Jones and Rodgers make this Falcons team much more explosive on offense.

Other than Jones, Dent, and Rodgers, the Falcons didn’t get much.  I guess you could say they didn’t have huge needs, but they rounded out their draft taking a sixth round kicker, and two seventh rounders on the offensive and defensive lines, respectively.  This team needed help in the pass rush department and in the secondary.  They didn’t get it.

The Falcons’ defense was decent last year, but as we saw in the 48-21 playoff torching to the Packers, it was a unit that needed improvement.  Dent is a nice player, but he does nothing dramatic to improve the Falcon defense.  They needed multiple high picks to make their defense tangibly better, and they didn’t make them.  On the bright side, the addition of Jones and Rodgers may have created the most talented offense in the league.  Perhaps Atlanta figures they aren’t far from winning a Super Bowl, and by loading up on offense, they can afford a so-so defense.  They got great talent but didn’t fill nearly enough needs.

Grade: C

Carolina Panthers

With the number one overall pick you have to draft a potential franchise changer.  Picking first in the draft means shelling out a huge amount of money, so getting a hugely talented player that can drastically alter the fortunes of your franchise is imperative.  Normally that means taking a quarterback because that position impacts the game of football more than any other.  However you feel about Cam Newton, he was the right pick.

Newton was the biggest athletic talent in the draft.  He’s not Vince Young; he’s a better athlete, smarter person, tougher mentally, and better passer.  He’s not Tim Tebow; Newton has much better throwing mechanics, physical stature, and running ability.  What Newton is is a guy that endured a white hot spotlight amidst a college football scandal and still went 14-0 in college football’s toughest conference.  He’s cocky, but that’s what I want from my franchise quarterback.  Newton could bust—that’s always a possibility—but if he works as hard as he can on the mental and technical aspects of the game, he can be a superstar.

All that said, in picking Newton the Panthers still have a ton of needs to address and must decide what to do with last year’s second round pick Jimmy Clausen.  I’ve long been a Clausen proponent, but clearly the Panthers don’t believe in him.  

After Newton the Panthers had no second round pick but two third rounders and grabbed two defensive tackles, addressing a big need.  Terrell McClain is an All-Big East player from South Florida that is stout, and has quick feet.  The Panthers’ next third round pick, Sione Fua from Stanford, is strong, plays with a low base, and is excellent against the run.  The Panthers may not have gotten two star defensive tackles, but they certainly got players who will see the field early and be part of a rotation inside.

Next, in the fourth round the Panthers continued to build their defense by selecting Brandon Hogan, a corner from West Virginia.  He may have been a reach, but certainly corner was a need area.  He’s small but smart, quick, and smooth, perhaps an ideal nickel cover man.

Carolina reached for Hawaii’s jack of all trades, Kealoha Pilares, in the fifth round.  Many thought he might go undrafted, so going in the fifth was a surprise.  Still, if he pans out, he’s a versatile player that can play slot receiver, take handoffs, and perhaps return kicks.

In the sixth round the Panthers added another defender in linebacker Lawrence Wilson.  Though undersized and lacking great athleticism, Wilson is smart, can tackle, and covers extremely well.

This draft is all about Cam Newton.  If he pans out, it’s a huge success; if he busts, it’s an all-time failure.  I liked that they drafted four defensive players that can make the team and contribute in the later rounds, but I didn’t like that they failed to add any dynamic offensive talent to assist Newton.  I like Newton so the grade won’t be horrible, but I think they played it too safe in the rest of the draft.

Grade: C

New Orleans Saints

It’s always hard not to get carried away with a team’s draft anytime they have two first round picks.  You know both players well, have seen them play, and expect them to be starters, perhaps even big-time players.

Cameron Jordan, the defensive end from California, fits a need for the Saints, and getting him at pick 24 was probably a steal.  He was a top-15 or -20 talent who brings pass rush, versatility, and run stuffing ability to an improving defensive line.  Jordan will now join young stud Sedrick Ellis, behemoth Shaun Rogers, and pass rush specialist Will Smith to form an imposing defensive front.

When the Saints won the Super Bowl, a really underrated part of their success was their rushing attack.  They should get back to that formula with the 28th overall pick Mark Ingram.   Solid, balanced, and strong, Ingram has good burst through the hole and excellent vision.  He could start immediately.

Martez Wilson (LB, Illinois) was a really nice addition in the third round.  He’s a tremendous athlete and fits the fast and furious front seven Gregg Williams and the Saints appear to be developing.  Flanking Jonathan Vilma, Wilson has the speed to run with any tight end, rush the passer, and track down running backs.

Louisville corner Johnny Patrick may have been a slight reach in the third round, but he joins Tracy Porter, Jabari Greer, and last year’s top pick Patrick Robinson to form a really deep cornerback group.  Johnny Patrick is a smart corner who is skilled enough to contribute right away and add good depth to an already talented secondary.

After Johnny Patrick the Saints didn’t pick again until the seventh round, but I think they made huge strides with their first four picks.

Cameron Jordan can be a star, and will likely start right away.  Martez Wilson also has a great shot to start, and certainly upgrades the Saints’ linebacking corps.  Johnny Patrick simply adds depth to what is becoming a very good secondary.  These three defensive picks may vault the Saints toward having a truly elite defense.

New Orleans needs almost nothing on offense with Drew Brees, a great offensive line, and an array of talented receivers.  One thing missing was a true feature back, and I believe they got that in spades by selecting Ingram.   The Saints got better everywhere they needed to, and added at least two, maybe four, starting- to star-level players.

Grade: A-

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Just pause and think for a minute about the talent the NFC South added to their division in this draft.  Cameron Jordan, Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, Jacquizz Rogers, Cam Newton, and now the Bucs add Adrian Clayborn, Da’Quan Bowers, and Mason Foster.

Clayborn is going to be good no matter what; I just don’t know if he’ll be great.

Bowers was the steal of the draft in the mid-second round after many thought he could be the first overall pick.  There is concern about his knee, but what player in the NFL won’t have injury issues at some point?

Foster was a tremendous value in the third round.  Scouts love his range, versatility, and playmaking ability, maybe the best 4-3 outside linebacker in the draft.

Luke Stocker is a big bruising tight end from Tennessee that will bring soft hands and physical blocking to an up-and-coming Bucs offense.  Stocker was a good value in the fourth round.

Ahmad Black was nothing but productive as a safety at Florida.  He might not have the combine numbers, but he’s a darn good football player that could start down the line.

Clayborn, Bowers, Foster, Stocker, and Black are all capable of starting, and the first three mentioned could be stars.  The Bucs’ offensive line and skills positions are already young and filled with good players, so the defense was really the area of need, and they addressed it beautifully.

Grade: A

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints

#23 Philadelphia Eagles

What They Need: Mike Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek: the skill positions are just fine.  The offensive line is another matter.  Vick and Kevin Kolb got sacked a combined 49 times last year, an unacceptable rate especially considering how valuable Vick is to this team's success.  Jason Peters is an ultra-talented left tackle but his technique has been wildly inconsistent.  Winston Justice needs to be replaced at right tackle.  Jamaal Jackson is a physical center who needs to improve his fundamentals.  The offensive line could use help across the board, but right tackle is the major area of concern.  Defensively the Eagles have some nice bright spots and some glaring needs.  Trent Cole is a stud at defensive end, and the combo of Mike Patterson and Broderick Bunkley is solid at defensive tackle.  Brandon Graham showed flashes of brilliance last year at defensive end and the Eagles will likely be content to let him develop another year.  The linebackers are athletic but undersized on this team, and they could use a thumper that really brings physicality in the run game.  Asante Samuel is still a very good corner though he gambles a lot, but opposite him the Eagles need a new cover man.  Nate Allen and the return of Marlin Jackson should make the safety spot a strength.

Who They Might Pick: There won’t be a linebacker worthy of this pick, so to me this will clearly come down to the offensive line.  The skill positions are set, the defensive line is young and talented, and the secondary has three strong starters.  Another corner is a possibility, but just isn’t as important as protecting Vick.  The Eagles can address other needs later in the draft, especially if they trade Kolb for draft choices.  Mike Pouncey could easily still be on the board, though I have him going much earlier.  He would be a nice option at guard or center.  The Eagles are not a physical running team, and with Vick’s tendency to move the pocket, an athletic offensive tackle is a necessity.  Unfortunately, Tyron Smith, Anthony Costanzo, and Nate Solder could all be gone by this spot, but if they aren’t, any of those three would fit the pass blocking mold the Eagles are looking for.  Derek Sherrod might be on the board, and though massive, he has athleticism and a long frame that lends itself to pass blocking.  If they looked corner here, Jimmy Smith, Davon House, and Aaron Williams would be options.

My Advice: I’ll give the Eagles Derek Sherrod, the last first round-rated tackle on my board.  With a 3.5 GPA in college, he’s smart, and he has the athleticism to play the lefty Vick’s blindside protector.  At 6’5”, 321 he has the size and long arms to fend off quick pass rushers and the brute strength to move his man in the run game.  With Sherrod, Peters, and Jackson, the Eagles have the core of a nice offensive line.

With the twenty-third selection, the Philadelphia Eagles take Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State.

#24 New Orleans Saints

What They Need: Quarterback and receiver are obviously set.  Reggie Bush should return to the fold, but he’s obviously not an every down back, so running back should be a consideration.  The offensive line is a really strong unit, particularly at guard where Carl Nicks and Jhari Evans form the best duo in football.  Offensive tackle is reasonably strong between Jermon Bushrod and John Stinchcomb, but another young tackle would be a nice addition.  Still, defense is probably where the Saints should spend this pick.  Will Smith is a good defensive end, Sedrick Ellis is a young stud inside, and Shaun Rogers was just added to help clog the run game.  Rogers though, has bounced around the league because of a bad attitude and inconsistent effort.  Another pass rusher to complement Smith is certainly a need as well.  Jonathan Vilma is a very good player at middle linebacker, but he isn’t surrounded by much talent at OLB.  Corner is all set with Tracy Porter, last year’s top pick Patrick Robinson, and Malcolm Jenkins, who can play any position in the secondary.  The safety spot is getting long in the tooth, but as mentioned, Jenkins can slide over and make that concern void.

Who They Might Pick: If Mark Ingram slides he’d be a great pick, but if he doesn’t, New Orleans should look to add a back in the later rounds.  And if Ingram’s gone, defense is the way to go.  Defensive line specifically seems to be the smartest spot to bolster.  They are currently strong at defensive tackle with Ellis and Rogers, but adding another young player there as insurance for Rogers would be smart.  Muhammad Wilkerson is a big body who is athletic enough to push the pocket and would be a really good value at this spot.  Phil Taylor, if available, would be a steal here.  Stephen Paea, Corey Liuget, and Marvin Austin could all be on the board at this point as well.  Defensive end seems like the even better choice.  You want your first pick to play right away, and I’m not sure any defensive tackle prospect would beat out Ellis or Rogers.  Naturally a defensive end, Cameron Jordan is a really good player that can play tackle.  Adrian Clayborn, JJ Watt, and Cameron Heyward would all be decent fits as well.

My Advice: Take Cameron Jordan from Cal.  He would be a steal at this point in the draft.  He can rush the passer and at 6’4” 287 pounds is plenty big enough to hold up against the run.  Even as big as he is, Jordan ran a 4.74 40-yard dash and was an excellent basketball player in high school.  Basically, he’s a freak athlete.  Jordan is not a born pass rusher, but he has the ability to push the pocket and is just one of those guys who is always a positive force on the field.

For the twenty-fourth pick, the New Orleans Saints take Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal.

--from Adam

(first image from nflsoup.com, second from flickr.com)

Who’s Feeling Super?

It's late enough in the season now that we know who should be competing for a championship, and who is waiting for next year.  With that in mind, I wanted to develop a few criteria for winning in the playoffs and rank the contenders accordingly.  We don't yet know who will have home field advantage so that won't be part of the ranking system.  The factors that will weigh in are:

The Quarterback: This is not just a productive passer, but a guy that has that innate knack for moving his team down the field late in games, especially when the pocket breaks down and something must be made of nothing.  There are plenty of good pocket passers in the league, but in the playoffs where the weather is often ugly and the defenses are very good, your signal caller must be able to create some magic.

Running Game/Offensive Line: You have to be able to at least threaten the opposition with a running game, because if you can't, opposing defenses can just tee off on the quarterback.  The offensive line has to create some holes and wear down the defense so that the play action pass is a factor.  The offensive line also has to be sound in pass protection because the quarterback is the head of the snake, and if you cut off the head, the body dies.

Kicking Game: Most games in the postseason come down to field position and field goal kicking.  If you have a guy that is consistent from 45 yards and in and can make the occasional long shot, you have a significant advantage.  If you don't, then you have to change your game plan, take more risks, and will miss valuable point opportunities.

Pass Rush/Secondary: These units work in unison; the more pressure you can put on a quarterback and the better your coverage is, the more turnovers, mistakes, and three-and-outs your defense can cause.

Run Stuffers: If you clog the run consistently and force teams to throw the ball more than they want, you have a good chance of creating turnovers and winning the time of possession battle.

Coaching: What teams need is a coach that can keep players focused on assignment football, rather than the enormous stage of the postseason.  Winning individual matchups and exploiting mismatches is how you win football games no matter when or where they are played.  Managing the game—time outs, play calling, challenges, and personnel packages—is also vital, and you must have a competent, organized, and efficient head coach to keep things moving on schedule.

The AFC Contenders

Most Important Patriot: Danny Woodhead

New England Patriots 

The Quarterback: Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are the most clutch players in the league.  While Brady won't make as many plays with his legs, he completely locks it in late in the game.  He will find a way to move his team when it matters, and his accuracy is unparalleled in late game situations.  His short passing game carves up defenses when they back off the coverage.  Who would you rather have than a guy with three Super Bowl rings? 

Rating: 10

Running Game/Offensive Line: Danny Woodhead is all about making a single cut and getting up the field.  He has incredible lateral quickness, and he rarely takes a big hit.  He has great elusiveness in small spaces, and has a knack for squeezing out an extra yard or two on most plays.  The offensive line has been very solid, especially protecting Brady for their rhythm passing game.  They have also been solid opening holes for Woodhead and the Law Firm, BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Rating: 8

Kicking Game: Since filling in for the injured Stephen Gostkowski, Shane Graham has made all five of his attempts.  Despite the small sample size in New England, Graham has been around a while and is an 86% career kicker, so I think the Pats are in pretty good hands, or should I say, feet.
Rating: 8

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Pats have the youngest defense in the NFL, and it shows.  Their corners have been shaky all year and they rarely get much pressure on the passer.  Their only saving grace is the defensive brilliance of Bill Belichick.
Rating: 6

Run Stuffers: Two words: Vince Wilfork.  You can't move him, and he can be dominant when he wants to.  The linebackers are strong and athletic so they can be good in the run, but smart teams will take advantage of their youth and aggressive play.  Jerod Mayo is an All Pro candidate this year.
Rating: 8

Coaching: The hoodie is the best in the business.  He knows exactly how to exploit his opponents' weaknesses and cover his own.
Rating: 10

Overall Score: 50

It's Gotta be the Hair

Pittsburgh Steelers 

The Quarterback: Roethlisberger takes a back seat to no one in terms of playing great in big games and creating big plays out of nothing.
Rating: 10

Running Game/Offensive Line: The Steelers get points for the good play of running back Rashard Mendenhall.  He is a bruising and electric back that can punish a defense.  Unfortunately, the Steelers have significant injuries along their offensive front and have been inconsistent at both protecting Roethlisberger and creating holes in the run game.
Rating: 6

Kicking Game: The Steelers cut Jeff Reed after his inconsistent performance and now rely on Shaun Suisham.  He was 2/2 against Baltimore, but prior to being picked up by Pittsburgh, there was a reason he was out of a job.  I can't trust him until he makes more pressure kicks.
Rating: 6

Pass Rush/Secondary: James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons, and Troy Polamalu all get after the quarterback and the secondary is solid.  Coverage doesn't have to be air tight when the quarterback is constantly harassed by the blitz.
Rating: 9

Run Stuffers: Pittsburgh is still very good in this category with Casey Hampton, Ziggy Hood, and Brett "The Diesel" Keisel eating up blocks for the aforementioned linebacking corps, but they will miss Aaron Smith who is out for the year.
Rating: 9

Coaching: Mike Tomlin always has this team play well in big games, and has already claimed a Super Bowl title.  He is very disciplined as a head coach and expects the same from his players.
Rating: 8

Overall Score: 48

Floats like a Butterfly, Stings like a Semi Truck

Baltimore Ravens 

The Quarterback: I like Joe Flacco.  He is very good in the pocket, has a great downfield arm, and is pretty accurate.  He does miss some short throws however, and will he is a calm player, he can be stiff in the pocket and doesn't have the athletic ability to create something out of nothing.  Late in the game, I don't see him making plays by himself to bail out his team.
Rating: 7

Running Game/Offensive Line: Ray Rice, Willis Mcgahee, and LeRon McClain represent a bruising and versatile backfield trio.  Rice is the best of the bunch and can do anything on the field.  He catches passes, blocks, and is a superb runner.  The offensive line is very physical with Michael Oher, Ben Grubbs, and Marshall Yanda all playing at a Pro Bowl level.
Rating: 9

Kicking Game: Billy Cundiff has been very good so far this year, going 5/6 from 40-49 yards and 19/22 overall.  He is a reliable option that you expect to make most kicks.
Rating: 8

Pass Rush/Secondary: The corners are suspect, but Ed Reed erases a lot of mistakes on the back end.  Still, against good passing teams, those corners will get exposed.  Terrell Suggs can be unblockable, ditto for Halogti Ngata, also Ray Lewis if he comes on the blitz.  Jarret Johnson has played very solid ball for the Ravens as well.
Rating: 7

Run Stuffers: Ngata is clearly one of the league's most difficult players to block, and Lewis is a tackling machine.  Baltimore hasn't ranked all that high against the run this year, but I trust them to ramp it up come playoff time.
Rating: 8

Coaching: John Harbaugh has done a terrific job with Baltimore, turning them into a much more potent offense while maintaining their swagger and aggressiveness on defense.  He makes sound game decisions and is unflappable.  He has schemed well to make up for Baltimore's main weakness, their corner play.
Rating: 8

Overall Score: 47

Like Always, Going as Far as Sanchez

New York Jets 

The Quarterback: Mark Sanchez has had both brilliant and bonehead moments in equal measure thus far in his young career.  Sometimes he misses very easy throws, and ultimately his inconsistency permeates this whole offense.  I don't trust him to be good in consecutive playoff games.
Rating: 6.5

Running Game/Offensive Line: The Jets have the best offensive line in football.  They protect Sanchez well and blow open holes for talented backs Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson.  If the Jets remember that they are a run-first team, they can beat anyone.
Rating: 9

Kicking Game: Nick Folk has been incredibly erratic, making just 23/32 field goals.  For a team that wants to grind out victories, this is going to be a problem.
Rating: 6

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Jets have actually struggled lately getting to the passer, but Antonio Cromartie is having an All Pro caliber year.  Darelle Revis has been slowed by injury but has regained top form in recent weeks.  The season-ending injury to Jim Leonhard takes a smart player and punishing hitter away, not to mention the team's punt returner, and that will hurt.  Still, the corners are excellent and New York's blitz packages are very confusing for opponents.
Rating: 8.5

Run Stuffers: The Jets' priority is to stop the run and make teams pass against them, figuring that pass heavy means turnovers for Gang Green.  They've been solid against the run, but big Kris Jenkins was lost for the season early on, and without him, they don't have a dominant inside presence.
Rating: 8

Coaching: Rex Ryan keeps his team very confident, but sometimes I think he gets them too worked up about things that have nothing to do with football.  Scheme is going to beat motivation in the postseason because everyone is motivated.  Ryan is too blustery at times, and it can be a distraction.  He is a very smart defensive mind and lets the offense do its own thing, so he can be a very effective X's and O's coach.  The question is will he focus on the game or the media?
Rating: 7

Overall Rating: 45

The NFC Contenders

6-0 at Home and Primed for a #1 Seed

Atlnta Falcons 

The Quarterback: Matt Ryan has been accurate and smart all year long.  He is never the reason the Falcons lose, and is often the main reason they win.  He's led numerous fourth quarter game-winning drives this year.  His willingness to stay in the pocket and look down the field, coupled with his accuracy, make every receiver a threat.  His only deficit is his lack of mobility, which is not to say that he doesn't have good feet in the pocket, he's just not much of a threat to extend the play once it breaks down.  Having Tony Gonzalez as a security blanket, Roddy White as a big play threat, and Michael Turner toting the rock doesn't hurt either.
Rating: 9

Running Game/Offensive Line: Turner and Jason Snelling are really a load to deal with for defenses.  Both are big, punishing backs, and Turner is one of the best overall runners in the league.  The offensive line has been together for a long time now, and the same five starts every game.  They are balanced and have a nasty demeanor.  Though no single player on the line grabs headlines, together, this is one of the best units in the league.
Rating: 10

Kicking Game: Matt Bryant has been rock solid this year and will likely go to the Pro Bowl if he continues his great work.  Kicking in the dome helps his cause, and the Falcons may be playing at home all the way to the Super Bowl.
Rating: 9

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Falcons have talent on the defense with John Abraham bringing the heat off the edge and Dunta Robinson serving as a good number one cornerback.  The defense is young in spots but has played well as a unit.  They don't terrorize quarterbacks or shut down opponents' passing games, but they are good enough to complement a very good offense.
Rating: 6

Run Stuffers: The Falcons rank eighth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed mostly thanks to aggressive linebacker Curtis Lofton and a defensive front that rotates a lot of different players.  Kroy Biermann is a very talented player that can play end or tackle.  Still, I don't view them as a team you simply can't run against.
Rating: 7

Coaching: I love Mike Smith's demeanor.  He is so calm and solid, and when you combine his management with Ryan's serenity under pressure, you have very strong leadership at the head of your football team.  Smith always seems to have his team ready to go from the opening kickoff, and he really maximizes the strengths of his team with the game plan he implements.
Rating: 8

Overall Rating: 49

The One Man Offense

Green Bay Packers 

The Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers' productivity cannot be questioned.  Still, I have concerns about him in the playoffs.  He does hold the ball too long at times, he will likely be forced to play in bad weather, and he has no running game to take some pressure off his shoulders.  However, he has great mobility, can pick up yards with his legs, and can make any throw on the field.  I don't have the same feel with Rodgers as I do with Roethlisberger or Brady in terms of just finding a way to move the ball late in games, but that could all change with a nice playoff run this year.
Rating: 9

Running Game/Offensive Line: James Starks had a nice debut against the 49ers; the Packers need another running back that can do something.  Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn just aren't going to instill fear in any defense.  The offensive line is not great, but they are leaps and bounds better than last year.  Josh Sitton is a bear, Bryan Bulaga is playing really well for a rookie, and Chad Clifton is playing as good as ever.
Rating: 6.5

Kicking Game: Mason Crosby has the leg strength to make any field goal in any weather.  He also has the lack of accuracy to miss any field goal at any time.  I don't trust the man.
Rating: 6.5

Pass Rush/Secondary: Clay Matthews has slowed down a bit in the middle of the year, but he is still a maniac coming off the edge.  Cullen Jenkins has amazingly registered 7 sacks as a 3-4 defensive end.  Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams have rightly been mentioned as the best corner duo in football, and Nick Collins is a dynamic player at safety.  They have had some injuries in the secondary, but are still a very strong group.
Rating: 9

Run Stuffers: B.J. Raji is an immovable object in the middle, and when joined by Ryan Pickett and Jenkins, you have the beefiest front three in football.  If healthy, this group is superb.
Rating: 9

Coaching: I think Mike McCarthy outsmarts himself sometimes, but he is an excellent offensive mind and he uses his plethora of receivers very well.  I wish he would mix in the run more, but I can't really blame him considering his lack of talent at the running back position.  Dom Capers has this defense playing free and fast; the players really seem to understand their roles this year.
Rating: 8

Overall Rating: 48

Run to Daylight

New York Giants 

The Quarteback: Eli Manning gets clutch points for winning a Super Bowl.  Still, he can be stiff in the pocket and really lacks the ability to make a play once the original play breaks down.  He can be inaccurate and has been interception prone this year.
Rating: 7.5

Running Game/Offensive Line: Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are a really frightening duo.  The Giants' offensive line is very good when healthy, but they've been banged up all year.
Rating: 8

Kicking Game: Lawrence Tynes has been really solid this year, but I question his leg strength and his cool under pressure.  Still, he has been good throughout his career and I can't downgrade him too much.
Rating: 7.5

Pass Rush/Secondary: Justin Tuck is a force against the run and pass.  The Giants' safeties play aggressively and make a lot of plays in the run game.  The linebackers are solid.  They have depth, talent and size up front on the defensive line.  The Giants' corners are solid and don't give up big plays.  The Giants allow the second least passing yards per game in the NFL.
Rating: 9

Run Stuffers: The Giants are sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game.  Their entire defense plays the run; even their secondary will make plays in the backfield.  If they can stay healthy, the Giants have a defense that can carry them a long way.
Rating: 8

Coaching: Tom Coughlin knows how to win in January, and he has the type of team to do it: a strong armed passer, two good running backs, and a balanced defense that does everything well.  Coughlin won't step outside of himself and won't allow his team to get unfocused.  He has a plan and will go down swinging with it if he has to.
Rating: 9

Overall Rating: 47

Sedrick Ellis: Linchpin of Saints' Swarming D

New Orleans Saints 

The Quarterback: Drew Brees hasn't had his best season, but he is still as good as there is in the NFL.  His accuracy is incredible, and the only reason he's thrown more interceptions this year is because his running game has been hit with injuries.  Brees is so smart and moves immaculately in the pocket.  He operates well in pressure and hurry up situations.  Bottom line, you want this guy leading your team in the fourth quarter.
Rating: 10

Running Game/Offensive Line: The Saints rank 25^th in the NFL in rushing yards per game.  Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush have both been banded up, which has given undrafted rookie Chris Ivory an opportunity to handle running back duties.  When they're healthy, the Saints can run the ball, but they haven't been thus far.  The offensive line has talent but hasn't played at the same level as last year.
Rating: 7

Kicking Game: Garrett Hartley has a strong leg, but sometimes the ball comes off his foot like the ball stumbles out of my hand when I throw lefty; it's not pretty.  You can almost see Hartley psych himself out at times.  Still, he made the kick to send this team to the Super Bowl a season ago, so he gets some credit.  John Carney is also a solid backup option.
Rating: 6.5

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Saints are third best in passing yards allowed in the entire NFL.  They have an aggressive scheme where blitzes emanate from all over, and they have ball hawking corners in Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter.  Sedrick Ellis is a pass rush presence in the middle of the defensive line, and the Will Smith/Charles Grant bookend duo can pressure quarterbacks as well.
Rating: 8

Run Stuffers: The Saints are decent against the run, but I think if you can get a lead and establish a foothold in the ground game, you could really gash them.  They don't have great depth or size in the front seven.
Rating: 6.5

Coaching: It's hard to argue with the creating genius and daring of Sean Payton.  He opened the second half of the Super Bowl with an onside kick; that's testicular fortitude.  He also designs one of the most imposing and complex passing games in the NFL.  He has Gregg Williams to largely control the defense, so he can focus on offense.  He is completely in tune with Brees and the pulse of his team.
Rating: 9

Overall Rating: 47

Are you experienced

Philadelphia Eagles 

The Quarterback: Michael Vick has been Superman this year and deserves MVP consideration.  Still, even though he has been great passing the ball, his legs make him the threat that keeps defensive coordinators awake at night.  I think Vick's scrambling abilities could be neutralized in the cold, nasty playoff weather, and that could ultimately make him less effective as a passer.  His receivers are speed merchants, but aren't great at going across the middle and moving the chains.
Rating: 8

Running Game/Offensive Line: Andy Reid has never liked running the ball, but with LeSean McCoy, he owes it to himself to pound the run.  The line has improved throughout the year, but it can still be dreadful at times.  Running the ball could help this line gain traction, but Reid likes to keep the ball in the air.
Rating: 7

Kicking Game: David Akers is as reliable kicker as there is in the league.
Rating: 9

Pass Rush/Secondary: Trent Cole is a beast off the edge, and Asante Samuel is at his gambling best in the playoffs.  Juqua Parker can get after the passer as well, and the Nate Allen/Quentin Mikel safety duo has been really good this year.
Rating: 7.5

Run Stuffers: The Eagles are a little undersized in their front seven with smallish defensive tackles and quick linebackers like Ernie Sims.  A team with a physical offensive line and bruising backs could really hurt the Eagles.
Rating: 7

Coaching: Reid has been in tons of playoff games, and he consistently has his team play well.  His only drawback is his lack of success in the NFC Championship Game, in which he is 1-4.
Rating: 8.5

Overall Rating: 47

Can he keep it in his pants for the playoffs?

Chicago Bears

The Quarterback: Yes, he can make all the throws, but far too often Jay Cutler throws to the wrong team.  He can be inaccurate, immature, and petulant.  He is not a good leader, he doesn't extend the play well despite good mobility, and he has only average talent at wide receiver.  He's played better this year, but in the postseason, I just can't trust him.
Rating: 7

Running Game/Offensive Line: Matt Forte is very talented and versatile, and Chester Taylor can do it all as a second back.  The problem is that the Bears have the NFL's worst offensive line.
Rating: 5

Kicking Game: Robbie Gould is a very solid and accurate kicker, one of the best in the business.
Rating: 9

Pass Rush/Secondary: The Bears don't get the quarterback a ton, but Julius Peppers is a guy that opponents have to game plan for.  The secondary doesn't have a single great player, but they work well together, tackle, and don't give up big plays.
Rating: 7

Run Stuffers: Peppers has shown good strength against the run this year.  Israel Idonije is a very athletic and large mammal that is disruptive against the run and pass.  Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher are terrific at sniffing out the play and flowing to the ball.
Rating: 8

Coaching: Lovie Smith is solid at coaching his defense, but I don't sense that he has total command of his team, or that he understands the game at a genius level like Belichick.  Mike Martz has done a good job of keeping himself in check this year by running the ball at least some and using tight ends and backs in pass protection.  Still, I think the Martz offense is a bad fit for ugly weather playoff games.
Rating: 6

Overall Rating: 42

The Final Rankings

1. New England Patriots (50 points)
2. Atlanta Falcons (49 points)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (48 Points) – With a tie at 48 points, I put the Steelers ahead of Green Bay because of Roethlisberger's playoff pedigree and the Steelers' dominant defense.
4. Green Bay Packers (48 points)
5. Baltimore Ravens (47 points) – Eagles, Giants, Saints, Ravens all scored 47 points on the playoff scale.  The Ravens rank highest out of the group because of their experience on defense and their balance on offense.
6. New York Giants (47 points) – They're ahead of Philly because they are stronger in the running game and on defense, and I think Vick will be less effective in the playoffs.  They're also ahead of New Orleans for some of the same reasons, plus, the Saints likely won't be playing many home games in the postseason.
7. New Orleans Saints (47points) – They're ahead of Philly because I like the Saints' offensive line and I trust Brees to be accurate in any environment.  They also will get healthier at running back.
8. Philadelphia Eagles (47 Points)
9. New York Jets (45 points)
10. Chicago Bears (42 points)

--from Adam

(all images from zimbio.com except Georgia Dome image, which came from instituteofhigherthinking.com)

Overreaction Friday: What We Learned from Last Night’s Opener

It’s that special time when I deduce what will happen for this entire season by watching one football game in September.  But in all sincerity, there are some things that can be said about last night’s Vikings–Saints game that have relevance moving forward.

1. The Saints' offensive line is either that damn good or the Vikings' defensive line is not quite what it was last year.  The Saints decided to air it out in the first half, so you would think Jared Allen would be on the lips of the broadcasters all night, but we hardly heard his name mentioned.  I don’t think I heard them call out "Kevin Williams" either.  In the second half the Saints pounded the ball on the ground, utilizing a cutback run where the offensive line moved the Williams wall to one side allowing the runningback to cut the other direction for a big gain.  The Saints do have a great offensive line, but still, nobody is supposed to run against the Vikings.  Pierre Thomas gained 71 yards on the ground, virtually all in the second half.  Usually the Vikings don’t allow close to that amount of yardage in one game.  Perhaps 37-year-old Pat Williams is wearing down, or it could be a one game aberration. 
2. Sean Payton is a much better coach than Brad Childress.  I expected the Saints to come up blitzing like crazy, but for most of the night they rushed three or four guys and dropped the rest into coverage.  The Vikings could not adjust to this.  Childress even said after the game that the Vikings, “didn’t have an answer” to the Saints' scheme.  Well Chilly, that is your job, to make adjustments and find an answer.
3. Brett Favre needed training camp and the preseason.  Sure, the Vikings may just need some time to get all on the same page, but a team can’t afford to work its way into a rhythm once the games count for real.  Favre was a bit off and the Vikings just didn’t have the belief that they could move the ball up and down the field. 
4. The Vikings miss Sidney Rice.  Percy Harvin operates best out of the slot because of his quickness, but he struggles as an outside receiver.  Rice bailed Favre out of a lot of situations last year, and made all the other recievers better.  Favre is still looking for a go-to guy, and if that guy is Visanthe Shiancoe, the Vikings are in trouble.

This was not a beautiful game by any means, but it was real football damnit and I loved every second.   The Vikings have to be concerned because they are a team that appears to be looking for answers, and their upcoming schedule will not lend itself to self-discovery.  In their next six games they play the Jets, Packers, and Patriots on the road, and the Dolphins and Cowboys at home.  They could be in deep trouble early in the season if they don’t figure out a better gameplan.

--from Adam

Season Kickoff: Vikings-Saints Live Blog

The Minnesota Vikings are coming back to New Orleans eight months after handing the Saints the NFC Championship game looking for revenge.  The Saints wish to show that they're not about to experience any Super Bowl hangover.  This is a real test for them coming already in week one.

And I'll be watching.  I've seen live journals of games on other sites and I figured I try my hand at it tonight.

Pre-Game

Paraphrasing from Dungy, "Favre knows the Saints will be blitzing him."
Look for the Vikings to throw a lot of quick passes.  Hopefully this will limit Favre rolling out late and then throwing across his body, cough, cough.

1st Quarter

15:00 - New Orleans institution Harry Connick Jr. marches in with the Saints.  And Andrea Kramer's on Twitter!

15:00 - "Nothing like a labor statement to start a season"  I cannot abide no football in 2011.  Get it done Goodell!

15:00 - Kickoff baby!

14:40 - A big play starts it, Marques Colston over the middle for 27 yards.

13:35 - Jerad Allen, Culinary Academy

12:56 - Touchdown, Brees to Devery Henderson, quick quick quick drive, five plays to paydirt, the Vikings weren't ready for New Orleans' hurry-up look

12:56 - How does Chilly answer?

12:56 - Who steps up in Sidney Rice's absence?

11:33 - Three and out for the Vikes

10:00 - Every quarterback who ever scrambled is learning from Brett Favre, according to Al Michaels.

9:26 - Two failed screen passes to start the drive backed up the Saints, three and out.

8:00 - If this drive leads to points, that is a key play: Peterson getting held up behind the line but still making a first down.

6:42 - Childress called a draw play and 2nd-and-forever.  Hooda thunk?

5:27 - Penalties stall the Vikings' second drive, but the Saints are left with poor field position.  Good punt Kluwe.

4:33 - Pretty little floater to Robert Meachem down the sideline after a potential botched play

3:30 - Forget your jock strap Ray Edwards?

1:25 - The Vikings are getting no pressure on Brees.  That will need to change if Minnesota wants to win this game.

0:48 - Spoke too soon... sack Greenway

0:00 - Vikings 0, Saints 7 

2nd Quarter

13:52 - I've never been a huge fan of Peterson catching balls out of the backfield, but he's made a couple nice plays tonight.

9:18 - Favre has no completions to his wide receivers yet, thanks Cris Collinsworth

6:16 - The Vikings' game plan so far: run, run, run.  I also haven't seen the Saints bring as much pressure as I was expecting.

5:32 - It looks it lulled Favre into a false sense of security; the pressure worked on third down after a defensive timeout.

5:28 - Ryan Longwell field goal from 41: Vikings 3, Saints 7

3:59 - That could've been a huge interception Asher Allen.

3:59 - 50 yards of field position with that punt

2:27 - Pressure creates Favre's first interception of the night

1:24 - The Saints cannot convert; Garrett Hartley misses a 46-yard field goal.

0:51 - I've seen this many times; Brett Farve loves the two minute drill.

0:34 - Touchdown - Brett Favre to Visanthe Shiancoe for 20 yards, the extra point is blocked, Vikings 9, Saints 7

Halftime: Vikings 9, Saints 7

I think the Saints' complete inability to establish any sort of running game does not bode well for them down the stretch.  If they can continue to pressure Favre, their defense should hold up better than it did at the end of the half.

For the Vikings, I don't think it's a massive problem in this particular game, but with only two of Favre's eleven first half completions going to wide receivers, it shows they are still looking for someone to replace Sidney Rice's presence on the outside.  I will also say though that that could stem from the Vikings' plan for short, quick passes not allowing the time for receivers to do their work.

3rd Quarter

15:00 - Surprise onside?

12:56 - Three and out to start for the Vikings, we have a surprisingly defensive game after watching the Saints score in just five plays to start.

10:52 - I'm seeing some good run plays from the Saints right now.  One of the underrated strengths (with Brees getting so much ink and because they didn't have any one guy who was the main running back) for the Saints last year was their running game.

6:13 - Ten-play drives kill a defense.  This one's capped off by a 1-yard Pierre Thomas touchdown plunge.  Vikings 9, Saints 14

5:18 - Get your feet in Malcolm Jenkins.

5:13 - The Vikings are lucky they're punting right now.

3:21 - Three solid plays from the Vikings defense cause three and out: Fat Pat Williams chases down Pierre Thomas--that's a sight--then two solid tackles by Jamarca Sanford and Ben Leber.

2:13 - Collinsworth's been talking about Sedrick Ellis all night and now he gets the sack.  Whenever we mention a defensive lineman by name, he must be doing something right.  Then comes another Vikings' three and out.

0:36 - Since the Saints' touchdown drive, neither team has generated any offense.

0:00 - Vikings 9, Saints 14

4th Quarter

14:51 - Side note: I'm glad Chilly ditched the beard and brought back the mustache.

14:43 - Bryant McKinnie gets carted to the locker room.  That's a big loss, literally and figuratively.

9:10 - After a dropped touchdown catch from Meachem comes a field goal attempt and Garrett Hartley misses again.

8:12 - Greg Camarillo makes his first catch as a Viking.  I've always thought he's a good player, but I just don't know what his role is on this team with Percy Harvin already established as the main slot receiver.  Cris Collinsworth loves him because he's a white wide receiver.

3:42 - I love watching the four minute drill: when you have a lead and have the ball with about four minutes left, and you just drain clock.  This is an area of strength for elite teams.

1:45 - The Saints are in victory formation.

0:00 - Saints win!  The stories of the second half are Brett Favre falling flat and the Saints' renewed commitment to the running game.

0:00 - Welcome back football.  I've missed you so.

Final: Vikings 9, Saints 14

--from Eric