AFC East: 2011 Division Preview

New England Patriots
 

It seems weird to say because the New England Patriots have played at such a high level over the past few years, but this team hasn’t won the Super Bowl in six seasons, and that’s a disappointment.  Even last year, after rolling to a 14-2 record the usually clutch Pats failed to get it done in the playoffs.  It’s high time for Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and company to get back to football’s biggest stage.
 

A stable of talent surrounds the ever all-world Brady: Deion Branch, Wes Welker, second year tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, young guns Brandon Tate and Taylor Price, plus the high profile Chad Ochocinco.  Branch, Welker, Ochocinco, and the tight end duo provide Brady with the great chain-moving, middle-of-the-field targets he covets, while Tate and Price have the speed to stretch defenses vertically.  Brady loves to use multiple targets, and he’ll have as many weapons as ever heading into 2011.
 

Finally getting a long-term deal done with top flight guard Logan Mankins solidifies an offensive line that already boasts excellent players Matt Light, Dan Koppen, and Stephen Neal as well as up-and-comers Sebastian Vollmer and rookie Nate Solder.  Deep and talented, New England’s offensive line will more than ably give Brady time to pick apart defenses.
 

Running back-by-committee will again be the strategy this year in New England.  The committee will just be a bit larger with rookies Shane Vareen and Stevan Ridley joining the stable of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Kevin Faulk.
 

On defense the Pats may finally be turning into the perfect blend of youth and experience.  Old pros on the defensive line Shaun Ellis and Vince Wilfork join young studs Jerod Mayo, Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Cunninghanm, Gary Guyton, and Brandon Spikes to form a front seven with both savvy and speed.
 

Adding Albert Haynesworth is low-risk/high-reward since they gave up virtually nothing to acquire the moody big man.  If he flops, the damage is minimal.  I like how New England uses countless alignments, so I expect they will find a way to maximize Fat Albert.
 

Pat Chung and Brandon Meriweather form one of the best young safety duos in football, both capable of ball hawking and making open field tackles.  With the first pick of the second round the Pats drafted physical corner Ras-I Dowling, who could make an impact at one of the Pats few weak points.  Dowling, Darius Butler, and Devin McCourty have a chance to make up a really nice trio of cover men.
 

If the Pats can generate more pass rush between the addition of Haynesworth and the growth of Cunningham and Dunlap, they could again be a dominant defense.  Add in an offense with an versatile array of backs and pass catchers, and you can see why this is Hill 364’s consensus pick for AFC Champion.
 

Biggest Strengths: The men at the top, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: New England must improve its pass rush, and though they’ve made it work in the past, an offense without a true feature back puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in AFC East
 

New York Jets
 

Rex Ryan’s bunch may have spent too much time drooling over Nhamdi Asoumgha and not enough time working to plug other holes on their roster.  Losing out on Asoughma in the end, the New York Jets did little to improve a team that has been on the cusp of the Super Bowl two years running.
 

If Mark Sanchez doesn’t take a quantum leap this year and become a top-10 passer in the league, this offense could really struggle considering all it lost.  Gone are the jack-of-all-trades Brad Smith, now with division rival Buffalo; the talented Braylon Edwards, who now calls San Francisco home; and Jerricho Cotchery, who went to Pittsburgh.  Picking up Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason may seem like nice moves on paper, but 32- and 37-year-old receivers usually don’t tip a team over the Super Bowl precipice.
 

Shonn Greene has big time ability at running back, but he may have to become a superstar overnight for this offense to really produce.  LaDanian Tomlinson had a nice resurgence last year, but the 32-year-old running back faded fast down the stretch.  How much does he have left in those legs for this season?
 

All-Pros D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold make up an excellent core of an offensive line, and Brandon Moore is a sound player at guard.  Right tackle and the other guard spot are less solid, but the overall unit is very good.
 

Although the Jets are famous for their blitzing defensive style, they don’t have any great, singular pass rushers.  Probably their best pure rusher, Calvin Pace had just 5.5 sacks in twelve games last year.  Nose tackle Kris Jenkins has retired after multiple knee injuries, and now their defensive line is populated by rookies and unspectacular veterans.  The strength of the front comes in the form of linebackers Bart Scott, who is aging, and David Harris, yet neither is much of a sack artist.
 

What make the Jets defense go are their cornerbacks, where Darelle Revis is the best in the business when healthy.  Opposite Revis the Jets re-signed Antonio Cromartie, who is great in man-to-man coverage but struggles making tackles and takes too many risks.  Last year’s first-round pick Kyle Wilson should push for more time on the field as a nickel and sometimes starting corner this year.
 

Ultimately, the season is going to ride on Sanchez’ development, because a lot of weapons walked out the door and the defense didn’t land the big prize it was hoping to.  After reaching back-to-back AFC Championship Games, this team seems poised to take at least a small step back.
 

Biggest Strengths: Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie may be the best cornerback duo in football, and the offensive line is among the league's elite as well.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Lack of weapons on offense, and lack of talent in the front seven.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC East
 

Miami Dolphins
 

Everyone seems to despise the Miami Dolphins’ Chad Henne, and I’m not here to sing his praises, but he’s produced at about the same level as Mark Sanchez without as much talent around him.  Last year Sanchez posted a 75.3 passer rating, Henne a 75.4, but the media is a powerful tool and has made a star of Sanchez before he’s actually become one.  Of course I realize Henne’s teams have been hovering around .500 and Sanchez has been to two-straight AFC Title Games, but in terms of quarterback production alone, the difference is pretty minimal.
 

Unfortunately for Henne, both members of a formerly dynamic backfield—Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams—have left town, and now it looks as though scatback Reggie Bush will be asked to be a feature back, something everyone but Reggie Bush seems to know he’s not capable of.
 

With the running game in trouble, even more pressure will be heaped on Henne, especially with the Dolphin fan-base up in arms that management balked on a potential trade for veteran signal caller Kyle Orton.
 

On the bright side, Henne will have superstar Brandon Marshall to throw to, and I would imagine Marshall will see more targets than just about any other receiver in the league.  Anthony Fasano is a reliable pass-catching tight end but not the type of player that defenses really have to gameplan for.

Jake Long is one of the best left tackles in the game, Vernon Carey is solid at guard, and if Mike Pouncey is anything like his brother, the Dolphins should be set at center, but there are still holes along the offensive line.
 

Miami really only has one guy, Marshall, that is going to scare defenses, and any defense can take away one guy.  A lot is going to fall on Henne and Bush, and I don’t believe they are ready to carry the load.
 

Miami is still searching for the right mix of players to lock down its defensive line.  Last year’s first-round pick, Jared Odrick, needs to develop into an impact player before things can come together.   A huge nose tackle, Paul Soliai moves pretty well but doesn’t make enough plays given his size, strength, and athletic ability.
 

Karlos Dansby is a very good linebacker still in his prime at age 29.  Solid tackler Kevin Burnett, who made 95 tackles for the Chargers last year, flanks Dansby, as does sack master Cameron Wake, who came out of nowhere in 2010 to tally 14 quarterback takedowns.  If young linebacker Koa Misi can take a step in his development, add in the return of Jason Taylor as a situational pass rusher and the Dolphins could boast one of the better linebacking groups in football.
 

Vontae Davis has as much athletic ability as anyone and showed it in flashes last year.  If Davis puts it all together—both the mental and the physical aspects of the game—he can be a star cover man.  Opposite Davis is the young Sean Smith, who at 6’3” and 214 pounds has safety size and corner speed.  This could be a very good duo moving forward.  Though aging, safety Yeremiah Bell is very good in run support, tallying over 100 tackles last year.
 

The Miami defense has the pieces to be a top-10 unit, but getting there will depend on young players stepping into leadership roles.  However, the defense will have to be great to provide this team with a shot at the playoffs because offensively it’s pretty much Henne and Marshall vs. the world.
 

Biggest Strengths: Brandon Marshall is an elite wideout, talent abounds in the linebacking corps, and they have a promising young corner duo.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Beyond Marshall, Miami lacks offensive weapons, and the defensive line is a work in progress.
 

Adam’s Predicition: 5-11, Third in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC East
 

Buffalo Bills
 

Yikes.  What else is there to say about a Buffalo Bills team that won just four games last year then in the offseason proceeded to lose their best linebacker (Paul Posluszny) a very good safety (Donte Whitner) and their second-best wide receiver (Lee Evans)?
 

Ryan Fitzpatrick will completely underwhelm you with physical ability, but he is accurate, smart, and he can get the ball out of his hands, which is more to be said than of many other quarterbacks.  He won’t lose games for Buffalo; he just won’t take them over either.
 

CJ Spiller needs to take more carries away from feature back Fred Jackson to make more of a balanced rushing attack, combining Jackson’s power and Spiller’s electric speed.
 

Stevie Johnson proved to be a rising star at receiver a year ago, but he is the lone threat in the receiving corps.
 

Also, the offensive line—for what seems like the fifth year in a row—is under serious reconstruction.
 

Offensively they may be good for a few exciting plays, but they don’t have the consistency up front or the array of weapons to sustain drives and put up points game in and game out.
 

This offseason Buffalo made two strong moves defensively: cutting ties with abject failure Aaron Maybin and drafting nasty defensive lineman Marcel Dareus with the third overall pick.
 

Pairing at defensive tackle, Dareus and Kyle Williams (a Pro Bowl alternate last year) should prove to be the strength of the team, which makes cutting ties with Posluszny and Whitner all the more puzzling.  Having Dareus and Williams anchor the middle of the line, then Posluszny at middle linebacker and Whitner at strong safety would have made the Bills downright formidable against the run, but they chose to let those two high quality players walk.
 

Ex-Packer Nick Barnett will recognize the cold weather in Buffalo, but he won’t be used to all the losing.  He should nicely fill in for Posluszny, but Barnett is five years older and not near the same level of athlete at this point, especially coming off an injury.  Barnett may well be the best the Bills linebacking group has to offer, having Shawne Merriman’s career evaporated before our eyes.
 

Terrence McGee, Leodis McKelvin, and Jarius Byrd make up a very good secondary, certainly the most proven unit on the team, but it certainly won’t be enough to make up for the Bills numerous other deficiencies.
 

This team doesn’t have the weapons, experience, or depth to come anywhere close to tasting playoff glory.
 

Biggest Strengths: The defensive tackle tandem and secondary are the Bills’ lone bright spots.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: They lack an offensive line, receiving options, and linebackers.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 5-11, Fourth in AFC East
 

--from @AdamHocking

NFL Draft Grades 2011: AFC East

Buffalo Bills

The Bills were bad last year, which usually means a changing of the guard at quarterback is in order.  However, incumbent starter Ryan Fitzpatrick had a pretty solid 2010 with an 82 passer rating.  And with no surefire quarterback prospects in this draft, I think staying with Fitzpatrick for at least one more year is the best strategy.

The Bills were dead last stopping the run, so adding the beast Marcel Dareus was a great move with their first pick.  Alabama’s Dareus excelled in the rough and tumble SEC, is a great athlete for his size, and appears to be the strongest player on the field at all times.  At 6’3”, 320 pounds, Dareus is the ideal anchor against the run, and with the Bills playing both 3-4 and 4-3, Dareus provides tremendous versatility.  When you watch a game, Dareus is one of the few players that jumps off the screen.

In the second round the Bills made a slightly curious pick, though they got a quality player.  Aaron Williams (DB, Texas) can play corner or safety and is a talented, physical player.  It’s just that the Bills’ secondary is probably the strength of their team; they ranked 3rd in the league defending the pass in 2010.  Still, the defense was Buffalo’s problem last year, and after getting Dareus, I can’t punish them too much for adding another quality player to that side of the ball.

The pick I really like came in the third round, the linebacker Kelvin Sheppard out of LSU.  With stopping the run such an issue, the Bills added two guys in Dareus and Sheppard that should help turn things around fast.  Sheppard is big at 250 pounds and has good speed and overall athleticism, able to get back and cover tight ends.  He was a leader on his college team.

Management must be expecting to lose some of their secondary, because in the fourth round Buffalo again addressed the area, netting Da’Norris Searcy (SS, North Carolina).  The 223-pound Searcy has the size to be an impact player against the run and enough speed and agility to be solid in coverage.  He had an incredible 27 bench press reps at the combine.

In the late fourth round the Bills did something that probably should have been addressed earlier; they picked an offensive lineman.  Chris Hairston from Clemson is a huge man at 6’6” and 325 pounds with great strength and solid athleticism, but he was never a true standout in college.

The Bills may have gotten a solid halfback in the fifth, taking a good, natural runner in UNC’s Johnny White.

In the sixth and seventh rounds the Bills continued to stockpile defensive players.

I always like when a team heads into a draft with a theme like Buffalo clearly did.  They went defense early and often, getting physical players from big-time programs.  Dareus should be a star, Williams should help right away, and Sheppard could start from Day 1 as well. Searcy is a talented player that might take some time learning the league, but he could develop into a thumper at strong safety.  Hairston was a high-upside pick who hasn’t shown that he’s an NFL starter just yet.   White complements an already talented backfield.  The only thing I would say is that the offense needed some major help but didn’t get it in this draft.  I understand though; teams can only do so much with their picks, and Buffalo completely revamped their defense in this draft.

Grade: B+

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had major needs entering this draft, and I’m not sure they addressed enough of them.  They simply didn’t have the number of picks to restock completely, but they did a solid job of adding good players at positions of need.

I like Miami’s first pick, Mike Pouncey (OL, Florida).  He’s an excellent athlete who can play center or guard, and the Dolphins desperately need more talent in the middle of their offensive line.

In the second round Miami got Kansas State runner Daniel Thomas, who fits the theme of this draft: physicality.  Thomas is a bruising 230 pounds, and with Ronnie Brown constantly injured, was a good pick.

In fourth rounder Edmund Gates, Miami might have drafted the next Ted Ginn, or they may have gotten a steal.   Out of Abilene Christian, the thing that pops is his speed: a 4.31 40-yard dash.  Perhaps he can provide the deep threat opposite the massive and imposing possession receiver Brandon Marshall.  If he can, then Chad Henne could improve dramatically.  Henne has a great downfield arm, and has needed a player that to lift the lid off of the defense and to open things up underneath.  Gates has good ball skills and strength, but he is raw in running routes.

In the sixth round the Dolphins picked up Charles Clay (TE/FB, Tulsa) who is a versatile player and a decent athlete who could fill multiple positions.

The first two picks should work out in tandem.  Pouncey can play right away and bring physicality to the Dolphin run game.  Thomas may be running strong behind Pouncey for the next 5-7 years; he’s a talented back that can wear down defenses.  Then adding the speedster Gates should help the Dolphins be a more dangerous vertical passing team.  Additionally, all of the first three selections should help Henne.  If he can’t succeed with a talented new center, another good running back, and a certified deep threat, then he’s not the guy.

Grade: B-

New England Patriots

It just isn’t fair.  They go 14-2 and then have a seemingly endless supply of draft picks the following year.   Without many needs, the Patriots could essentially pick whoever they wanted whenever they wanted.

The Patriots spent their first round selection on Nate Solder, once considered the best offensive tackle in his class, but a guy that had slid a little right before the draft.  Still, New England gets a tremendous pass protector with a huge frame and potential to be a truly elite offensive lineman.  He is the heir apparent to Matt Light on the left side.

New England addressed another big need with the top pick in the second round, adding the physical cornerback from Virginia, Ras-I Dowling.  Dowling is big and fast; the 6’1”, 200-pound corner runs a 4.40 40-yard dash.  Plus, he’s a smart player who started for a long time in college and should be solid immediately in the Patriot secondary.

Late second round pick Shane Vareen (RB, California) was a taken a little high for my taste, but he is a versatile player that bolsters a position of some need.  Though Danny Woodhead is a fine player, I’m not sure he’s the yearly answer as a feature back.  Vareen is a compact and strong runner who can catch the ball out of the backfield and has nice open field moves.  He should get some carries right off the bat and help improve a so-so Patriots running game.

I don’t really understand the Pats’ next pick in the third round, another running back in LSU’s Stevan Ridley.  I believe adding Vareen was a more than adequate move to jolt the running game, but with so many picks to play with, perhaps the Patriots just took a guy they liked.  The 225 pounder with an attacking running style can add another element to the New England offense and gives them perhaps the deepest stable of running backs in the NFL (Woodhead, BenJarvis Green-Ellis, Vareen, and now Ridley).

With the very next selection the Patriots did something some loved and others hated: Ryan Mallet.  And I loved it.  If he doesn’t work out, so what?  He’s a third round pick on a championship-level team; it won’t really be a big deal if he can’t be Brady’s successor.  And if he does work out, then the Patriots are geniuses yet again.  Mallett has the best arm of any quarterback drafted this year.  The knock on him is his work ethic and attitude toward the game. Sitting behind Brady for two or three years ought to help Mallett dial in and maximize his physical gifts.  And if Mallett doesn’t turn out to be the Patriots’ guy, he could be juicy trade bait, like we’re currently seeing with Kevin Kolb.

The fifth round saw the Patriots add mammoth TCU guard Marcus Cannon, who fits well with the physical theme New England seemed to be going for in this draft.  Cannon was, to some, a second round talent.  At 6’5” and 360 pounds, Cannon is unbelievably big, but he also shows surprising athleticism playing tackle in college.  If he can learn to play guard, he could be dominant, and that’s not something you can say about most fifth round picks.

The thing to keep in mind with this draft is that New England had a huge rookie class last year and is still developing those players.  They have so many young bodies that needs really disappear, and taking the most talented prospects becomes the smart strategy.  Solder will be a star if he stays healthy and gets stronger, Dowling has all the physical gifts to be a good corner, and the combo of Vareen/Ridley totally reshapes the running back situation.  Mallett was a flyer, a luxury pick with a huge ceiling and not much of a cost coming in the third round.  Cannon was a steal in the fifth.

Overall I love how the Patriots drafted for talent.  Their draft class has as much potential as any teams’.  The only thing I thought they missed was adding more depth to the defensive line.  They maybe could have looked at taking a dynamic wideout as well, but I’m nitpicking at this point.

Grade: A-

New York Jets

Even with limited picks, the Jets still addressed major needs.  The front line of the Jets’ 3-4 was unspectacular last year, especially after Kris Jenkins went down with yet another injury.  Jenkins is probably done as an elite player.  The linebacking corps and secondary are very strong for New York, and the offense is stocked with young talent, so finding impact players on the defensive line was the top priority in this draft.

The Jets hit big in the first round with Temple defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson.  At 6’4” and 315 pounds, Wilkerson has the size and strength to play any position on the defensive line, but he will likely spend most of his time at defensive end.  Very athletic for his size, Wilkerson has the ability to take on two blockers and could be a dominant run defender.  Physically, he’s ready to compete with NFL offensive linemen.

In the third round the Jets took a chance on a small school player in Kenrick Elllis, a defensive tackle from Hampton.  The enormous 6’5”, 350-pound Ellis plays with a violent demeanor and fires off the snap.  He has the prototype height to block quarterbacks’ line of vision and the prototype girth to take on multiple blockers.  Plus, he’s scary quick for a man of his size.  With all the talent to excel, Ellis simply has to prove he can transition from a small school to the bright lights of New York and the NFL.

In the fourth round the Jets added another player to their running back rotation, Louisville’s Bilal Powell.  He’s not huge, but at 210 pounds and with a physical running style, he can be a punishing back in stretches.  After underwhelming his first three collegiate years, Powell ran for over 1,400 yards last year.

I like the pick of Jeremy Kerley (WR, TCU) in the fifth round.  He’s a smart player that played in a pass-oriented offense in college.  I think mentally will be ready to contribute right away.  He seems to be a perfect fit in the slot.

Taking a chance on Greg McElroy in the seventh was a smart move.  Mentally he’s as sharp as quarterbacks come, and while his physical skills aren’t mind-blowing, McElroy can hold his own.  To me he projects as an ideal #2 who will add a tremendous presence to the locker room and will be like another coach on the roster.  That’s pretty good value for the seventh round.

Taking defensive linemen with their top two picks was the best thing the Jets could have done; it was by far their biggest need.  Wilkerson should be a solid player immediately and could be very good down the road.  Ellis has huge potential and talent-wise was a steal in the third round, but he has a lot to prove at the next level.  Powell and Kerley were both productive college players that aren’t physically overwhelming but should be contributors.  The Jets can’t be sold that LaDanian Tomlinson has much left in the tank, and wideouts Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are free agents.  With that in mind, Powell and Kerley were smart picks.  Finally, I can’t help but love getting such a solid individual in McElroy in the seventh round.

Grade: B

--from Adam

Sunday Slobber Knockers

Adam: How many wins does Michael Vick lead the Eagles to?  Can he make the Pro Bowl?

Eric: I think Vick could get the Eagles an extra 1-2 wins that they might not have gotten with Kevin Kolb.  He also could potentially lose them a few games too.  So I say they still finish around .500: 7-9, 8-8, 9-7, somewhere in there.  A Pro Bowl in certainly within reach if Vick remains the starter.  I think the fans are ready to forgive the dog fighting if he can keep making electrifying plays with his legs; that's what he would be rewarded for if he makes the Pro Bowl.

A: Bruce Gradkowski starts for Oakland.  What are your thoughts on how it will go and overall on the move to bench Jason Campbell?

E: In the long run, Campbell should be the starting quarterback for Oakland.  That said, I really liked what Gradkowski was doing for them at the end of last season: nothing flashy, just winning games.  Like I said in my review of Week 2, I was a little surprised how easily they gave the starting job to Campbell when he came over.  Gradkowski won't be any worse than Campbell was, but he doesn't have as much upside either.

A: Who is the best team in the AFC East?

E: The Dolphins are 2-0 and are tough to play against, but the class of the AFC East still consists of the Pats and Jets, both at 1-1. If Mark Sanchez can continue to make strides as a starter, I give the edge to New York.

A: How many wins do you expect out of each team in the NFC West by the end of the year?

E:
49ers: 9-7
Seahawks: 6-10
Cardinals: 6-10
Rams: 3-13

A: What record will the Vikings and Cowboys have at the end of the year?

E:

Vikings: 8-8
Cowboys: 10-6

What are your thoughts on the AFC East?

A: I think at this point in Sanchez's career, he is somewhere between his two performances this season.  He's not as bad as he showed in Week One, but he can't consistently perform like he did in Week Two.  I also think that this whole bravado the Jets pride themselves on is going to bite them. Rex Ryan is starting to see that with the Braylon Edwards DUI, the Revis holdout, and the Santonio Holmes suspension.  The thing is, over this past decade, the most talented team has not won the Super Bowl plenty of times ('07 Pats, the Cowboys when they went 13-3, the Chargers every year).  Winning in this league is just as much about cohesiveness as it is about talent.  Offensive and defensive schemes are more complicated than ever, and 53 men have to be on the same page.  If you have a locker room full of egos and distractions, it's hard to make your team have that "one heartbeat" approach you need to have.  I think the Jets need to stop worrying about talking to everyone else and just focus on maximizing their talent.

I think the Dolphins will be in close games all year no matter who they play.  Chad Henne hasn't yet taken a big step where he can lead the offense to 25-30 points, and they are still very much a power running team.  The defense is strong but and the offense is methodical, which can be a successful formula, but you also lose a lot of close games in this league and it takes some measure of luck to win this way. If the Dolphins want to be a playoff team, they are going to have to light up the scoreboard a bit more, and they have the potential to do so with Brandon Marshall.

The Patriots over the past three years have lost some head-scratching games.  You still want to think, "Hey, this is the Patriots. They don't lose close games and they don't lose to teams they should beat."  But I think the reality is that they have come back to the pack, and while they are a playoff-level team, they are not a surefire championship contender.  They are on the same level with about six other AFC teams.  They don't have the defense that confuses and frustrates opponents, and their running game is really absent.  Kevin Faulk is gone for the year, and Laurence Maroney just got traded, so who do they really have?  BenJarvus Green-Ellis?  Fred Taylor?  They simply don't have a feature back, and they don't run the ball enough for their offensive line to establish a rhythm.  As a result, they don't hold the ball long enough, and the defense just can't hold up as it had during their Super Bowl run.  Tom Brady, Wes Welker, and Randy Moss are still great, but all three of those guys are aging, and Welker is only nine months removed from major knee surgery.  Aaron Hernandez (rookie tight end out of Florida) is a really exciting find for the Pats; he has made some really explosive plays across the middle.

The Bills are really in trouble.  Chan Gailey is not the right guy for an all-out house cleaning/rebuilding process.  You need a young innovative guy with energy to totally remake a team.  They need to overhaul the roster and change the culture in Buffalo.  The Bills have no quarterback worthy of starting in this league, they might have one starting quality wide receiver, they have a clusterfuck at running back, and they can't block well enough for any of those guys to go off.  I think CJ Spiller is a nice weapon, but he is the type of guy that could put a talented offense looking for one more playmaker over the top. He is not a bell cow, carry-the-offense-type guy.  Defensively, the Bills have a talented secondary, but the front seven is underwhelming.  They need more than a good draft or two; they need 3-4 good free agent signings and 2-3 drafts to turn up the talent and fill needs.  It's going to be a long time before this team is good again.

Division Breakdown: AFC East

New England Patriots

Many pundits are looking for the Jets to breakout and win the Super Bowl, but I foresee them struggling to integrate all their additions and Mark Sanchez is still only a second-year guy.  Tom Brady will be back and is now two years removed from a bad knee injury.  Brady's numbers were great last year, but he just did not look the same as in years past.  It will be running back-by-committee once again in New England, which may be a problem, but I think Randy Moss bounces back, Julian Edleman will play well until Wes Welker comes back, and Aaron Hernandez will make a big splash as a rookie tight end.  The defense has been rebuilding through the draft the past two years, this year adding Devin McCourty (first round corner) and Jermaine Cunningham (linebacker from Florida) in round two.  The offensive line is good but aging.  If the Patriots first- and second-year players can make an impact, this team should rest atop the division.

New York Jets

How many times have we seen teams win the offseason and then struggle during the real season?  The Jets have as much talent as any team in football, and on paper, adding Ladainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, Brodney Pool, and Jason Taylor looks like a tremendous haul.  Integrating this many veterans though, many of whom were cast off for poor attitudes, could easily backfire on Rex Ryan, a coach that tends to place his foot in his mouth daily.  Still, the defense should be tenacious with a wonderful front seven boasting Kris Jenkins, Shaun Ellis, Bart Scott, David Harris, and Calvin Pace.  Behind that dominant unit is perhaps an even more impressive secondary with Darrelle Revis (best corner in football), Cromartie, and first-round pick Kyle Wilson.  Pool and Jim Leonhard are solid at safety.  Sanchez looks promising but his QB rating was only 62 last year, and Braylon Edwards has a career-long case of the drops.  Replacing the released Alan Faneca will be difficult and Holmes will miss the first four games this year.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins made a huge splash by landing Brandon Marshall, one of the most talented and productive wideouts in the game.  Ronnie Brown is a very good back but must stay healthy.  Ricky Williams runs hard but is aging.  Chad Henne showed impressive flashes last year, but faded a bit down the stretch.  I think with Brown, Marshall, and Anthony Fasano, Henne can take that next step toward stardom.  The offensive line is solid with Jake Long making the Pro Bowl every year of his career.  The defense is a bit of a no-name unit.  Karlos Dansby joins the fold and forms a nice tandem with Channing Crowder.  Vontae Davis and Sean Smith both started last year as rookie corners and should be much more comfortable moving into this year.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo is in big trouble again this year with a patchwork offensive line and no definitive answer at quarterback.  Trent Edwards has not been consistent.  CJ Spiller is a huge talent but was probably about tenth on the Bills list of needs.  Lee Evans is still a nice deep threat, and Fred Jackson is a talented and bruising running back.  Terence McGee and Leodis McKelvin are a very nice corner duo, and Paul Posluzny is a good, young linebacker.  Outside of those three guys, this defense has many holes.  This team will be picking among the top-5 next year.

Final Standings

New England Patriots 11-5

New York Jets 10-6

Miami Dolphins 8-8

Buffalo Bills 5-11

Draftaganza! - AFC East

This is the first of a series of eight posts from Adam analyzing the 2010 NFL Draft and what it means for each franchise.

This should be fun, Rex Ryan won't let this not be fun.  The Dolphins are better with Brandon Marshall and an emerging Chad Henne.  The Jets are better with a nice draft and slew of free agent additions.  The Pats had another deep draft and continue to reinvigorate the base of this team.  The Bills still suck. 

Buffalo Bills

1.09 Spiller, C.J., RB, Clemson
2.09 Troup, Torell, DT, UCF
3.08 Carrington, Alex, DE, Arkansas St.
4.09 Easley, Marcus, WR, Connecticut
5.09 Wang, Ed, OT, Virginia Tech
6.09 Moats, Arthur, DE, James Madison
6.23 Batten, Danny, DE, South Dakota St.
7.02 Brown, Levi, QB, Troy
7.09 Calloway, Kyle, OT, Iowa

Don't get me wrong, I love Spiller, but you cannot guarantee me that he will be different than Jahvid Best or Dexter McCluster.  I see Spiller as a luxury pick, a guy that a team without glaring needs might take.  The Bills have no offensive line, no quarterback, a porous defense; you name it the Bills can't do it.  So while Spiller elevates the Bills' talent level, he does not address a need.  Their second and third picks seem like reaches as well, and they did not address quarterback until the 7^th round.  They also didn’t address the o-line until the 5^th.  Bad draft for the Bills. 

Miami Dolphins

1.28 Odrick, Jared, DT, Penn St.
2.08 Misi, Koa, DE, Utah
3.09 Jerry, John, OT, Mississippi
4.21 Edds, A.J., LB, Iowa
5.14 Carroll, Nolan, CB, Maryland
5.32 Jones, Reshad, SS, Georgia
7.05 McCoy, Chris, DL, Middle Tennessee St.
7.45 Spitler, Austin, LB, Ohio St.

This is the definition of a no-name draft.  Yet for Bill Parcells and Tony "I'm doing my best impersonation of Da Bears Superfans" Sparano, I'm sure that is just fine.  Odrick is a very solid player and can probably fit in their rotation immediately.  Misi Koa comes from a very good defensive system in Utah, and is a rare athlete that should eventually add pass rush to this front seven.  John Jerry could have gone much higher and he will add depth to a solid offensive line.  Overall this team got incrementally better through the draft, and made a huge splash by landing Marshall.  If the defense is solid, and Henne can take another step forward, this team will be in every game they play and could compete for a playoff spot.  They are, however, in a nightmare division.

New England Patriots

1.27 McCourty, Devin, CB, Rutgers

2.10 Gronkowski, Rob, TE, Arizona

2.21 Cunningham, Jermaine, DE, Florida

2.30 Spikes, Brandon, LB, Florida

3.26 Price, Taylor, WR, Ohio

4.15 Hernandez, Aaron, TE, Florida

5.19 Mesko, Zoltan, P, Michigan

6.36 Larsen, Ted, OL, North Carolina St.

7.01 Welch, Thomas, OL, Vanderbilt

7.40 Deaderick, Brandon, DE, Alabama

7.41 Weston, Kade, DT, Georgia

7.43 Robinson, Zac, QB, Oklahoma St.

The Pats continue rebuilding their core for the second straight draft.  They have had seven second-round picks over the past two drafts; this team should really have a stable of talent for a long time.  McCourty helps their ailing secondary, I think Spikes can start from day one and Cunningham is a great athlete at linebacker as well.  This defense will be better this year as last year's young players progress and this year's crop comes in to help.  Aaron Hernandez is a better tight end in my opinion than the guy from Arizona they grabbed in the second round, but either way they nabbed two dangerous receiving tight ends that can help fill the middle of the field void created by Wes Welker's injury.  Julian Edleman is very good as well.  I thought they could have gotten Dez Bryant to give them a young deep threat but they went a different route.  Overall you have to like the sheer number of picks as at least a few of these guys should be very nice players for this team, and I think their depth will be underrated going into this year.

New York Jets

1.29 Wilson, Kyle, CB, Boise St.

2.29 Ducasse, Vlad, OT, Massachusetts

4.14 McKnight, Joe, RB, Southern Cal

5.08 Conner, John, RB, Kentucky

Kyle Wilson, Antonio Cromartie, and Darrell Revis will form the best corner trio in football.  Ducasse is raw and powerful, but surrounded by Nick Mangold and D'Brickashaw Ferguson, he should just be able to be a physical force and not worry too much about making mistakes.  Shonn Greene is a rising star, LaDanian Tomlinson is at least versatile and experienced, and McKnight has a load of talent.  They have great receiving threats in Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Dustin Keller, and a rising player in Mark Sanchez.  This team has the chance, if Sanchez progresses, to be one of the most well-rounded offenses in football.  Defensively, their front seven is a nightmare with Kris Jenkins, Shaun Ellis, Calvin Pace, David Harris, and Bart Scott, not to mention Jason Taylor rushing the passer.  I think on paper this may be the best team in football.