Week 12 Game Notes

Packers over Lions

• The Lions’ eighth-straight loss on the fourth Thursday of November, this time to my beloved Green Bay Packers, ensured I would have a happy Thanksgiving.
• It was a slow start for Green Bay on both sides of the ball, but the game really turned once Ndamukong Suh went and got himself ejected.

Cowboys over Dolphins

• We’ve seen both the good Tony Romo and the bad Tony Romo this season.
• November, though, belongs to the good Tony Romo.  Romo improved his November record as a starter to 19-2 all-time with this latest win.
• Look for bad Tony Romo to reappear in December and January, where Romo is an all-time 9-12.

Ravens over 49ers

• A cross-country road loss to a Super Bowl contender takes nothing away from the fact that the 49ers remain among the NFL’s elite.

Falcons over Vikings

• I had a blast watching this game and watching Matt Ryan control every player on both sides of the line of scrimmage with his on-field play calls.
• The Vikings without Adrian Peterson?  Scary.
• Honest question to the readers: How many more games do the Vikings win this season?

Bengals over Browns

• Andy Dalton led another fourth quarter game-winning drive.  This kid’s the real deal.

Texans over Jaguars

• TJ Yates anyone?
• By virtue of their big lead, it’s easy to see Houston winning the division, but with their quarterback situation it’s not easy to see them making any real noise in the postseason.

Panthers over Colts

• The quest to 0-16 continues.

Jets over Bills

• Regardless of whether it did or didn't directly cost his team a win, I loved the Stevie Johnson touchdown celebration.
• The NFL works really hard to smother individualism—as can be expected when the players wear helmets and face masks that obscure their faces—so anytime someone does something to differentiate himself that doesn’t hurt the game (the Suh stomp, for example), I’m all for it.

Cardinals over Rams

• Patrick Peterson loves the Rams.
• Peterson returned his fourth punt for a touchdown—one of which was the walk-off overtime 99-yarder versus St. Louis Week 9—which ties the NFL record for most in a season.
• Peterson was the only one though where all of returns were 80 yards or longer.

Titans over Buccaneers

• They’ve been scraping by without him all season, so when Chris Johnson finally does have a big game, it surely means that Tennessee will get the win.

Raiders over Bears

• Caleb Hanie didn’t start out hot—those 3 interceptions piled up quickly—but he made the game closer than it could have been.

Redskins over Seahawks

• Rex Grossman has a little bit of a roll going with this week’s win and forcing the Cowboys into overtime the week previous.

Patriots over Eagles

• Ding dong, the dream is dead.

Broncos over Chargers

• Watching the last five minutes and overtime, it appeared neither of these teams really wanted to win, but as is custom, the Chargers wanted it a little bit less.
• San Diego loses their sixth in a row.  When are they going to win again?

Steelers over Chiefs

• This game was a little closer than it probably should have been, but all that matters is that Pittsburgh came in and didn’t have a letdown in the tight AFC North race.

Saints over Giants

• New York’s greatest strength is their pass rush, and in this game, Drew Brees’ ultra-quick release completely neutralized the Giants’ rushers.
• Without getting pressure on the quarterback, the rest of the Giant defense is nothing to write home about.
• Brees threw for over 350 yards in a game for the twenty-seventh time.  That ties Dan Marino’s NFL record.

--from @jeuneski

Week 12 Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Packers at Lions	Lions	Packers
Dolphins at Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
49ers at Ravens	49ers	Ravens
Vikings at Falcons	Falcons	Falcons
Browns at Bengals	Bengals	Bengals
Texans at Jaguars	Texans	Texans
Panthers at Colts	Panthers	Panthers
Bills at Jets	Jets	Jets
Cardinals at Rams	Rams	Rams
Buccaneers at Titans	Buccaneers	Titans
Bears at Raiders	Raiders	Raiders
Redskins at Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Patriots at Eagles	Eagles	Patriots
Broncos at Chargers	Chargers	Chargers
Steelers at Chiefs	Steelers	Steelers
Giants at Saints	Giants	Saints
	Adam	Eric
Week 11 Record	8-6	10-4
Season Standings	98-62	107-53

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks in the remaining games.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

I need to make up some ground on Eric, and I’m assuming he’s going with Green Bay, so I’ll go with the Motor City Kitties.  In all honesty though, I have some compelling reasons for picking Detroit outside of my pathetic pick performance this season.  The Packers’ defense is definitely vulnerable, especially considering how poor they’ve been tackling, and I have no idea how they stop Calvin Johnson.  Additionally, TJ Lang and Marshall Newhouse are problems on the offensive line, not good news with the amped up Ford Field and Ndamukong Suh’s crew rushing all day.  I think Aaron Rodgers gets hit a little too often in this game and the Lions pull out a wild one on Turkey Day.

Prediction: Lions 38 – Packers 31

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys

The Dolphins have been playing really well lately, winners of three-straight, all in convincing fashion, and the Cowboys have a knack for slipping up just when we think they have it together.  Yet I can’t in good conscience take Matt Moore to beat Tony Romo.

Prediction: Cowboys 23 – Dolphins 16

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens

What a slate of Thanksgiving games we are being treated to this year as opposed to the normal snooze fest we are presented with.  In this game we get mirror image teams: the coaches are brothers, the styles of play are nearly identical, and they both sit close to the top of their respective conferences.  I’m taking the Niners on a short week on the road because I believe Alex Smith is more solid than Joe Flacco, something that would have been unthinkable at the start of the season.  I believe both defenses will do their thing, but the Niners will turn the ball over less and find a few more explosive plays either on offense or special teams to squeeze out a victory.

Prediction: 49ers 16 – Ravens 13

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons

Like the Cowboys, the Falcons are in that bunch of slightly above water teams in the NFC that need every victory.  I think at home, playing against a rookie quarterback, they should be able to win this game comfortably.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Vikings 17

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are still very much in the thick of things in the AFC North and the playoff race in general.  They are also a much better team than Cleveland.  AJ Green may or may not be back, but either way I expect the Bengals to own both lines of scrimmage and for Andy Dalton to outduel Colt McCoy.

Prediction: Bengals 24 – Browns 13

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Matt Leinart had the bye week to get ready for an underwhelming Jags team.  Those factors should help ease him into his first start in a while.  Arian Foster, Ben Tate, and a good defense at his back should make things even easier.  The possible return of Andre Johnson wouldn’t hurt matters either.  The quarterback is important, but going up against Blaine Gabbert, even Leinart might look good.  Overall on the roster the Texans are just too much better than Jacksonville to lose this game.

Prediction: Texans 20 – Jaguars 13

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts

The Panthers have lost a lot of close games this year, the mark of a team with potential that just needs to mature.  The Colts have been blown out a ton this year and have yet to notch a victory.  Need I say more regarding their “talent?”  I’ll go with the Panthers simply because they have more playmakers, and Cam Newton will put points on the board.
Prediction: Panthers 28 – Colts 17

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

I clung to the Bills bandwagon as long as possible, but now it’s time to abandon ship.  They look really bad lately, Ryan Fitzpatrick is not as sharp throwing the ball, and the defense is getting exposed.  I don’t love the Jets, but I think they are the more solid overall team.

Prediction: Jets 23 – Bills 16

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams

Does it really matter?  No it doesn’t.  Both teams are terrible, but I guess I’ll ride with the Rams at home and because if a banged up Kevin Kolb doesn’t play John Skelton will get the start.

Prediction: Rams 17 – Cardinals 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans

Both of these teams still have plenty to play for, though neither strikes me as a true playoff team.  Things are so bunched up in both conferences that either could make a postseason push if they get hot.  I liked what I saw last week out of Tampa despite the loss.  I’ll take the Bucs to get a few big runs from LeGarrette Blount and for Josh Freeman to have a big game on the road.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24 – Titans 21

Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders

This really would have been a compelling matchup had Jay Cutler not gone down with a broken thumb.  Still, the Bears have a way of keeping things close against most any team and will likely ride Matt Forte, good special teams, and solid defense to a competitive outcome.  In the end though, I like the Raiders to be able to manufacture more points, especially at home.

Prediction: Raiders 17 – Bears 13

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks

Two bad teams here, but Seattle is a tough out at home, and Washington has to travel 3,000 miles to play a pretty meaningless game.

Prediction: Seahawks: 23 – Redskins 17

New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles

Starting the year this looked like a possible Super Bowl preview.  Now the Eagles have fallen almost completely out of playoff contention.  Still, at home and with loads of talent, a good pass rush, they could certainly frustrate the Patriots.  Also, the NFC East isn’t exactly out of reach. Mike Vick may or may not play, but either way I think LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin will find some seams in the porous New England defense.  This is probably a dumb pick, but I’ll go with Philly to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Prediction: Eagles 27 – Patriots 23

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

I just can’t believe that this Tebow thing is going to keep working, and I also can’t believe Phillip Rivers will continue to play so poorly.

Prediction: Chargers 23 – Broncos 20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh had a bye week to get ready for Tyler Palko.  Run, Tyler.  Just run.

Prediction: Steelers 28 – Chiefs 9

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints

The Giants are an up-and-down team, but they match up well with the Saints.  They can throw the ball all over the lot and keep up with Drew Brees, and they can also pressure the Saints with just four pass rushers.  I look for the Giants to force a couple Drew Brees interceptions and be very aggressive down the field with their vertical passing game.  I’ll take the G-Men.

Prediction: Giants 30 – Saints 24

NFL Week 12 Game Notes

Patriots over Lions

Adam: -The Lions really hung tough for about three quarters, but New England separated in the latter stages, as they should have.
-Detroit is going to have a very high pick again this year in the draft, and if they find a special player, this team could be a real threat next year.

Eric: -How will the Patriots ever generate offense without Randy Moss?  What was a pertinent question eight weeks ago is now completely out the window for the league's top scoring team.
-At least the Lions lost at home this week.

Saints over Cowboys

A: -The Cowboys hung tough in this game and are playing well under Jason Garrett.  You wonder what could have been had Dallas played with this intensity from Day One.
-The Saints are still right in position for a first-round bye if they keep things rolling.

E: -This was a hazy game, as I can only remember bits and pieces out of my turkey-induced coma.  Play of the game honors go to Malcolm Jenkins for stripping Roy Williams on a big play that would have set up a Cowboy score.  Instead, after the fumble, the Saints drive down the field and score the game-winning touchdown.

Jets over Bengals

A: -The Jets finally blow out a team they should.
-My lord, the Bengals are terrible.  It's hard to believe a team with this amount of talent is 2-9.  Marvin Lewis, your seat is warming up.

E: -This marks the Jets' third big win over Cincinnati in the last two years after beating them in Week 17 of the 2009 season to reach the playoffs and then in the Wild Card round the following week.

Vikings over Redskins

A: -Brett Favre gave new coach Leslie Frazier the game ball.  Take that Brad Childress!  The Vikings played a little better without the dark cloud of disarray hanging over them.
-The Redskins just don't have enough offense to string together victories.

E: -The Vikings showed some spark that I hadn't seen in a long time.  Frazier notches his first win as an NFL head coach and rookie Toby Gerhart filled in admirably after Adrian Peterson's second quarter injury with 76 yards rushing and a touchdown.
-After having the second highest points scored total in the league last season, the Vikings sit third from the bottom this season, ahead of only the Panthers and 49ers.

Texans over Titans

A: -Two words: Rusty Smith.

E: -The whole Jeff Fisher/Vince Young/Bud Adams situation is one bad sandwich, but I'll order the Fisher.
-Smith cannot even lead one scoring drive against a defense that had been looking like one of the worst in league history.  When a guy named Rusty Smith is your starter, why are you only giving Chris Johnson 7 carries?  Lighten the load on the rook.  Kudos to the Texans' defense though who held Johnson to a paltry 5 yards rushing, a career low.

Bears over Eagles

A: -This was a big time validation game for the Bears who many, me included, have doubted.  They played Michael Vick better than anyone else this year.
-The Eagles are explosive, but I worry about their ability to sustain long drives and keep Vick healthy.

E: -The Bears were getting so little respect prior to this week because of their seven wins, only one had come against an above-.500 team.  Respect them now.  With a tremendous defense and Jay Culer making just enough plays, the Bears are poised atop the NFC North with an 8-3 record.
-The Eagles scored their share of points, but the Bears' big plays gave Philly a dose of its own medicine and put Chicago over the top.

Giants over Jaguars

A: -If they could have held on late, the Jags would be alone atop the AFC South heading into Week 13.  As it is, they are still tied with the Colts, yet do own the tiebreaker.
-The Giants saved their season with this victory.  Had they lost this game, things would have turned really ugly in New York.

E: -Even though they came in with matching records and it took a late comeback, the better team won this one.  The Giants snapped their two game losing streak by beating Jacksonville and at the same time ended Jacksonville's three game win streak.

Ravens over Buccaneers

A: -Even though they lost, losing another competitive game against a good team convinced me how good Tampa is.  I am trying to get over my own perception of them as a bad team that I am carrying over from last season, and again, this game showed me that they aren't a powderpuff team.  They beat everyone they are supposed to, and they have played Atlanta and Baltimore tough on the road.
-The Ravens survive a tough game and now get set for a monster matchup with Pittsburgh.

E: -The Ravens are undefeated at home and the Buccaneers still haven't beaten a team with a winning record.

Browns over Panthers

A: -The Browns are a team that could have something brewing for next year.  They aren't very talented now, but they play solid ball and Colt McCoy just might become a pretty good quarterback.  Peyton Hillis is a beast and the offensive line is really good.  I actually think Eric Mangini has done a good job of making this team play competitively, and with another good draft, this team could be back in playoff contention next year.
-The Panthers have very little in the cupboard right now, and I think trading Steve Smith is a move they need to make this offseason.  I've heard DeAngelo Williams could be on the block as well, and though he's a good back, Jonathan Stewart could easily step in.  The Panthers need a lot of high picks to restock other positions.  Go young Carolina and start over.

E: -And then Mike Goodson says, "I'm not gonna pay a lot for this muffler."  But then Hillis says, "Sweet sassy molassy, you are gonna pay a lot!  And the cost is gonna be prohibitive."  The Browns win 24-23, Stu Pot.

Falcons over Packers

A: -This matchup between two excellent teams featured a marked playoff atmosphere.
-The Packers' main deficiency is their lack of balance on offense, and that is the Falcons' greatest strength.  Combined with home field, that was the difference in the game.

E: -This was the first game where the Packers' lack of running game really bit them.  Aaron Rodgers can do a lot of good things for this team, but he should never have to be their leading rusher.  I know GM Ted Thompson doesn't like to give up his draft picks, but when Marshawn Lynch was made available by the Bills earlier this season, that's a move I would've liked to see Thompson pull the trigger on.

Steelers over Bills

A: -Stevie Johnson, I'm sorry you had to go through that.
-Pittsburgh, wake up!

E: -It took overtime and an inexcusable Johnson drop, but the Steelers pulled out a win in Buffalo to remain tied atop the AFC North with the Ravens.  It just so happens that Pittsburgh and Baltimore meet this weekend.  Time to watch some sparks fly!

Chiefs over Seahawks

A: -Chiefs remaining schedule looks like this: home games against Denver, Tennessee, and Oakland, and they go on the road to face St. Louis and San Diego.  They could easily go 11-5.
-7-9 could easily win the NFC Worst.

E: -The Seahawks are a team I absolutely cannot get a read on.  They can play solidly, or just as easily, get blown out in games I expect them to win.  It feels like they're the team most responsible for keeping down my Pick-Down record.

Dolphins over Raiders

A: -Put a fork in Oakland, they aren't going to catch San Diego or Kansas City.
-The Dolphins continue to win on the road and still have a faint heartbeat in the playoff race.

E: -The Raiders are similar for me to the Seahawks, see note above.
-The Dolphins played a good game in all three phases, leading to another win on the road.  That makes five road wins.

Rams over Broncos

A: -The Rams almost gave this game away but will be happy to get their first road win.  Sam Bradford is an absolute stud; he is having as good a rookie season as any quarterback I've ever seen.
-The Broncos have holes all over their roster.

E: -The Broncos allow the Rams' first road win and also Bradford's first 300 yard passing day as a pro.

Chargers over Colts

A: -The Chargers may be playing the best football in the league right now.
-When is the last time you saw the Colts get blown out at home?

E: -With the win, the Chargers ensured that none of the league's division leaders would have more than a one game lead over second place.

49ers over Cardinals

A: -The 49ers are a bad team and didn't play well in this game, yet they won by three touchdowns.  That's how bad Arizona is.
-Frank Gore is gone for the year; that really hurts any Niner playoff hopes.

E: -Weren't these two teams supposed to be fighting tooth and nail for the NFC West crown?  Instead, it was a matchup between two 3-7 teams, who amazingly still have a shot at that division title.  7-9 for the playoffs, anyone?  6-10?

Week 12 Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Patriot at Lions	Patriots	Patriots
Saints at Cowboys	Saints	Saints
Bengals at Jets	Jets	Jets
Vikings at Redskins	Vikings	Redskins
Titans at Texans	Texans	Texans
Eagles at Bears	Eagles	Bears
Jaguars at Giants	Giants	Giants
Buccaneers at Ravens	Ravens	Ravens
Panthers at Browns	Browns	Browns
Packers at Falcons	Packers	Falcons
Steelers at Bills	Steelers	Steelers
Chiefs at Seahawks	Chiefs	Seahawks
Dolphins at Raiders	Raiders	Raiders
Rams at Broncos	Rams	Rams
Chargers at Colts	Colts	Colts
49ers at Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals
	Adam	Eric
Week 11 Record	11-5	10-6
Season Standings	89-71	94-66

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions
The Lions really are better than 2-8.  Usually Detroit manages to be worse than their abysmal record, but this year they have had some tough injuries and lost some very close games.  I said all that just out of sympathy, not as a precursor to an upset pick.  The Pats don’t overlook people because they aren’t as talented as they were in 2007.  They are winning with scheme, and they will outthink Detroit easily.
Prediction: Patriots 28 – Lions 20

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are doing better under Jason Garrett, and I’d think about picking them in this game except Romo isn’t playing and the Saints have gotten on a bit of a roll.
Prediction: Saints 30 – Cowboys 23

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
There is no reason to pick the Bengals to win another game this year.  The running game hasn’t been great and Carson Palmer has looked exceptionally average.  In addition, they continually dig huge holes or allow teams to come back on them.  The Jets have had a lot of close games lately, and this may be close again because both teams have a short week to prepare and rest up.  Still, the Jets will put up more points.
Prediction: Jets 23 – Bengals 14
 
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins
I think Brett Favre might actually play well in this game with his arch nemesis, Brad Childress, out of the picture.  Players like Leslie Frasier and may play with a renewed energy.  Childress’ absence will allow everyone to relax and be themselves a bit, and it also may also allow Favre to take more control of the offense.  Sidney Rice being back helps too.  I think it will be a relatively low scoring game where the Vikings will have one more productive drive than Washington.
Prediction: Vikings 23 – Redskins 17

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
I may have buried the Texans too quickly; this division is still up in the air.  This will be a hotly contested game between teams that know each other well.  Ultimately I’ll pick the shaky Texans because the Titans are starting rookie Rusty Smith at quarterback.
Prediction: Texans 28 – Titans 16

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
It’s not just me that doubts the Bears.  Vegas has them as 4 point underdogs at home against a team with the same record.  I agree with Vegas: too much Michael Vick and too much bad Jay Cutler.  Asante Samuel will get Cutler at least twice in this game.
Prediction: Eagles 27 – Bears 20

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants
An interesting matchup pits two teams with the same record who I feel entirely different about.  The Giants are a team with loads of talent, and if they can get their heads on straight, they can beat anyone in the NFC.  The Jags on the other hand are riding a lot of luck, trickery, and general shenanigans thus far to their 6-4 mark.  The Giants are the better team and will prove it at home.
Prediction: Giants 26 – Jaguars 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens
Who are you Tampa?  Can you win a road game against a Super Bowl contender?  It won’t be enough to just play close in this game; eventually you have to win one of these games.  I just don’t think Tampa is quite ready.
Prediction: Ravens 20 – Bucs 14

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
This will be an ugly game, and unfortunately for Carolina, those are Cleveland’s specialty.  The Browns are a competitive bad team; the Panthers are just plain old bad.
Prediction: Browns 24 – Panthers 10

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Hands down the game of the weekend, the two best quarterbacks in the NFC compete in this matchup.  Green Bay is playing like a Super Bowl team, and Atlanta just keeps winning with a balanced and efficient formula.  Atlanta is 5-0 at home this year, and Matt Ryan is 18-1 in his career at home.  Well, get ready for 18-2, because Aaron Rodgers is starting to play at another level.  Greg Jennings went off last week, James Jones is playing really well, and Donald Driver is getting back healthy.  The difference in the game will be the playmaking ability of Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson.  Atlanta has a solid defense, but they don’t have players that completely change the game like Green Bay does.
Prediction: Packers 34 – Falcons 27

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
The Bills are playing tough, but the Steelers need this win and should be fully focused.  The Steelers will simply overwhelm Buffalo.
Prediction: Steelers 27 – Bills 14

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is pretty good at home, but they just aren’t a very talented team.  Matt Cassell has an astounding 96 quarterback rating this year with 19 touchdowns and 4 picks.  If the Chiefs win the turnover battle, they win this game.  They have the superior defense, running game, and special teams.
Prediction: Chiefs 23 – Seahawks 20

Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders
I’m expecting Tyler Thigpen again for Miami, which is not a good thing for Dolphins fans.  The Raiders and Dolphins combined to score three points last week.  The Raiders have a good defensive line, and with Jake Long banged up, the Dolphins' complete lack of a running game, and Thigpen in the saddle, three points may be enough for Oakland to win this one.
Prediction: Raiders 16 – Dolphins 10

St. Louis Rams at Denver Broncos
I think this is a good matchup for the Rams.  Both teams are workmanlike and have to string together drives to get points.  Steven Jackson will be the difference in this game.
Prediction: Rams 24 – Broncos 20

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have to have this game as they are playing at home.  Peyton has struggled with the Chargers 3-4 defense in the past, but this is not the same San Diego defense.  It should be a shootout that goes to the ol' sheriff.
Prediction: Colts 38 – Chargers 35

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
All my rowdy friends are here for…Niners and Cards?  C’mon Man!  I can’t believe this despicable excuse for a game is the Monday nighter.  I have no idea who will win this game, so I’ll pick the team I feel like rooting for, the Cardinals.  It’s all about getting a high draft pick for us Niner fans.
Prediction: Cardinals 13 – 49ers 10