NFC North: 2011 Division Preview

Green Bay Packers

This feels weird to say, but the defending Super Bowl champs have nowhere to go but up.  Consider that the generous helping of success last year came to one of the youngest teams in league and one that experienced an unprecedented rash of injuries.  With all their young guys gaining a year of Championship experience and all the walking wounded coming back healthy and ready to go, it’s easy to see why both Adam and I predict the Green Bay Packers repeat as Super Bowl Champions.

Our optimism also stems from who we have at QB1—the most important position in football—the league’s overall best player, Aaron Rodgers.  With off-the-charts accuracy, abundant arm strength, a quick release, surprising mobility, and the same number of rings as Brett Favre, Rodgers has it all.  Entering just his fourth year as a starter, expect big-time numbers.

Also at Rodgers’ disposal is one of the deepest receiving corps in football.  You can argue that since Rodgers is so great, he makes his receivers look great, but you cannot deny the raw talent on display.  There’s the game-breaking ability of Greg Jennings; the wily veteran, Donald Driver; the best third receiver in football, James Jones; and saying that, he’s in danger of losing his job to Jordy Nelson.

Before his season ended in Week 5 last year, über-athletic tight end Jermichael Finley was Rodgers’ favorite target.  Should Finley stay healthy, look for a big season out of him.

One of my biggest concerns heading into the offseason was addressing a position guys have shuffled in and out of for years, kick returner.  GM Ted Thompson allayed those fears when he drafted Randall Cobb, a dynamic return man out of Kentucky that should see action in the receiving game as well.

The Packer offense had trouble running the ball last year, which only leaves room for improvement.  Ryan Grant missed all but one half of football last season after injuring his ankle Week 1.  His return gives the offense a boost, but relying on a 28-year-old running back coming off a serious lower body injury may be a dicey proposition.  That is where last season’s playoff revelation, James Starks, can pick up the slack.  Add to those two the strong Alex Green drafted out of Hawai’i, and Green Bay should have a competent running back trio.

Though the defense lost one of its stalwarts, Cullen Jenkins, in free agency, Dom Capers still has enough guys to make you stand up and shout.

A beast off the edge, Clay Matthews is perhaps the most dynamic presence in all of football.  His speed, strength, and tenacity are unmatched.

Just one year removed from a Defensive Player of the Year campaign, team leader Charles Woodson now roams and creates havoc anywhere on the field.  Free from strict cover duty with the emergence of Tramon Williams and the speedy Sam Shields as excellent cornerbacks, Woodson can play in the box as another linebacker, feel comfortable covering a team’s 3rd-best receiver, and is extremely dangerous blitzing quarterbacks off the slot.

In the same first round where they drafted Matthews, the Packers also nabbed “The Freezer,” nose tackle BJ Raji.  Devouring double teams comes easy for the lynchpin of Green Bay’s 3-4, and Raji has spectacular pass rush ability from the inside as well.

The NFL these days is a pass-first league.  In order to win a team must throw the ball efficiently and stop opposing teams’ aerial attacks, mainly through pass rush.  Green Bay excels in both areas.  Unified from the front office to Mike McCarthy and his coaching staff all the way to the players on the field, the Green Bay Packers are going to be a very good team for a very long time.

Biggest Strengths: Aaron Rodgers (of course) and continuity.  Even though the Packers did not make a splash in the free agent market—they never do—in the lockout-shortened offseason, not having to acclimate so many new players works to the Packers’ advantage.

Biggest Weaknesses: Offensive line play.  Chad Clifton must stay healthy, rookie Derek Sherrod must come in and replace long-time starter Daryn Colledge, and the unit as a whole must get better opening holes for a fledgling running attack.

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in NFC North

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in NFC North

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are a sexy pick this year to come out and do something they haven’t done since the year 2000, win.  This looks like the year where all the pieces Detroit has assembled will put it together and go on a tear through the NFC.

Matthew Stafford undoubtedly is just what Detroit needs at quarterback.  Watching him play, he has proven that he has “it.”  All he hasn’t done is stay healthy.  Stafford must remain in the lineup for this team to fulfill its cosmic potential.

This potential jumps off the screen when looking at who else the Lions have on offense.  Calvin Johnson is a top-5 NFL receiver with freakish size and speed.  Though rookie second round pick Mikel Leshoure is done for the season with a torn Achilles, the Lions will still have a dynamite two-back combination with Jahvid Best and new addition Jerome Harrison.  Scott Linehan’s two tight end sets showed a lot of promise last year; Brandon Pettigrew’s and Tony Scheffler’s skillsets are tough to gameplan against.

The defensive line assembled under Jim Schwartz and Gunther Cunningham is downright scary.  In only his second year, Ndamukong Suh is already among the most impactful defensive linemen in the NFL.  Suh’s strength, speed, and quickness make him unblockable.  Joining Suh in the trenches is this year’s thirteenth overall pick and a guy who many believe had first overall talent, defensive tackle Nick Fairley.  Flanking those monsters are the tenacious Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril, who comes off an 8.5-sack 2010 season.  With Suh and Fairley drawing double teams upon double teams, Vanden Bosch and Avril should punish opposing quarterbacks.

Elsewhere on defense, former Titan Stephen Tulloch will join his old defensive coordinator in Schwartz and vastly improve the Detroit linebacking group.

Beyond rising star safety Louis Delmas, the secondary is still a work in progress, but they did bring in Eric Wright to hopefully lock down one cornerback spot.  Pressure from the front four should really alleviate the burden on the back end, so if the secondary can at the very least be average, then this defense should go far.

Biggest Strengths: A young, talented team coming together around a young coach and quarterback.

Biggest Weaknesses: The offensive line is a sub-par unit.  They must improve to protect the fragile franchise quarterback, Matthew Stafford.

Eric’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in NFC North

Adam’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in NFC North

Minnesota Vikings

The one move that didn’t happen has me a lot lower on the Vikings’ chances than I would have been, and that was their failure to re-sign Sidney Rice.  I love bringing in Donovan McNabb; I think he still has productive years left in him.  I understand people are down on McNabb after a lackluster 2010, but he was really hampered by playing in the talentless black hole that was the Washington Redskins.  The only problem is, aside from Adrian Peterson, these Sidney Rice-less Vikings look a lot like the Redskins.  Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe, and a bunch of nobodies greatly resemble Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, and a bunch of nobodies.

Let’s not be all gloom and doom though.  Yes, the Vikings’ skill guys may not be that much better than Washington’s, but McNabb will now have the best running back he’s ever played with.  Our pick for best running back in football, Peterson outhits would-be tacklers and always delivers a little punishment of his own.  Such a big back that can cut, find holes, and burst into the open field is something to behold.

The defense is spearheaded by its defensive line, Jerad Allen and Kevin Williams in particular.  Both of those guys are top-5 league-wide in their respective positions.  The stout linebacking corps boasts stud Chad Greenway and heavy hitter EJ Henderson when healthy.  Yet, though once a top-flight unit, the aging front seven is no longer good enough to cover up for a poor secondary.

The offensive line is deteriorating quickly, especially after the release of Bryant McKinnie, who reportedly showed up to training camp weighing nearly 400 pounds.  Steve Hutchinson is no longer the elite player he once was, and outside of that the Vikings are still waiting to see if Phil Loadholt can become a solid player rather than just a heavily penalized giant who takes up space.

All told, this veteran team's window is closing quickly if not already shut.  Bringing in McNabb is a stopgap move—I was clamoring for the Vikings to bring in McNabb before Favre ever got there—that should help the team marginally in the short-term and perhaps somewhat more in the long-term as McNabb can mentor first round reach Christian Ponder.

Biggest Strengths: No matter who surrounds him, Adrian Peterson is a lock for a stellar season.

Biggest Weaknesses: The loss of Sidney Rice leaves a gaping hole at wide receiver, and Father Time is catching up quickly.

Eric’s Prediction: 8-8, Third in NFC North

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in NFC North

Chicago Bears

The Bears still suck.

--from @jeuneski