Can the Steelers run the football?
It looks like Maurkice Pouncey playing in this game is about as likely as the Timberwolves making the playoffs this year. A broken ankle and high ankle sprain–two injuries that alone would make playing doubtful–essentially rule out the rookie Pro Bowl center. That means Doug Legursky will be the man making the line calls, handling the ball each play, and attempting to move BJ Raji. Good luck. Chris Kemoeatu and Pouncey were a punishing tandem in the rush attack, but again, Pouncey won't be there, and Kemoeatu is a mauler that struggles in pass protection and is good for one or two personal fouls per game. Jonathan Scott, Kemoeatu, Legursky, Trai Essex, and Flozell Adams is not exactly the Hogs reincarnated. Rashard Mendenhall is a powerful back with deceptive speed and agility and good instincts, but will his guys up front provide him with lanes to run through?
Consider the powerful front of Green Bay, which boasts three men well over 300 pounds in Raji, Cullen Jenkins, and Ryan Pickett. Plus, the Packers' linebackers fill gaps well, have good speed as a unit, and are sound tacklers. Nick Collins is a dynamic player against the run coming from the safety position, and Charles Woodson might be blitzing from the concession stand for all we know. Dom Capers, Pittsburgh's defensive coordinator in 1994 when they lost to Dallas in the Super Bowl, will be calling the plays for the Packer defense. He brings as many wrinkles and different looks as anyone, creating a very tough assignment for an undermanned offensive line still trying to gel. Capers knows what Pittsburgh does because he's been there; normally you wouldn't be able to take anything from what a team did in 1994, but the Steelers are such champions of consistency that things haven't changed a ton in the Steel City. He also knows what the Steelers are going to do because he's a veritable genius that's seen everything in his 30+ years in football.
Packer pass rush vs. Steeler offensive line
This may be as difficult a proposition for Pittsburgh as rushing the ball for the same reasons: banged up offensive line, great Packer personnel, and Capers. In the Steelers' favor is the mobility, strength, agility, and general guile of Ben Roethlisberger. Clay Matthews may come crashing in only to have Roethlisberger stiff arm him, shake him off, escape the rush, and make a big play down the field. Once Roethlisberger extends the play and breaks the pocket, he's as dangerous as any player in the league. He has great field vision plus the arm strength and accuracy to make big time throws on the run. Still, if you are installing a gameplan entirely predicated on your quarterback running for his life, you're in trouble. Capers will start this game focused on stuffing the run and making the Steelers one dimensional. Roethlisberger is terrific, but he does take chances, and under pressure occasionally turns the ball over. He tossed two picks and fumbled twice against the Jets.
If Green Bay starts to tee off with the blitz, two units will be tested: the Steelers' offensive line and the Packers' secondary. Green Bay's secondary is better equipped to cover the Steelers' receivers than the Steelers' offensive line is to stop the Packer rush. Sam Shields is one of the only players in the NFL that can stay with the Ferrari that is Mike Wallace, and Tramon Williams has been the best corner in the playoffs. Williams will split time on Wallace and Hines Ward. The third corner, Woodson, will do everything: cover tight end Heath Miller, fist fight Ward in a battle of old guys that still got it, and blitz from all conceivable angles. Collins and Charlie Peprah are a very solid safety duo that should wreak havoc in the box with such good corner play outside.
Steeler pass rush vs. Packer offensive line
Green Bay's offensive line is better than Pittsburgh's, but it is still just a slightly above average unit, and they're not going against the Steelers offensive line. Pittsburgh has the best linebacking corps in the league, the best pass rushing tandem in Lamar Woodley and James Harrison, and the best defensive player in the game when healthy, Troy Polamalu. (So says the AP.) Dick LeBeau is every bit the genius that his counterpart Capers is; Pittsburgh boasts the top scoring defense in football this year. Additionally, the Steelers stop the run so proficiently that the Packers may have to say, "Screw it. Let's air this thing out because we can't run at all." That would allow Pittsburgh to pin their ears back and come after Aaron Rodgers, who is just one bad hit from being out of this game.
Rodgers is just as mobile and likely faster than Roethlisberger, but he isn't as big or strong and can't sustain the same amount of punishment. The Steelers can really take a toll on Rodgers and the rhythm of the Packers' offense if they hit him early and often. The Packers have solid players on the offensive line, but you have to worry about them holding up for an entire game. Pro Bowler Chad Clifton will benefit from the bye week. Brian Bulaga has been starting for a while now; at this point he's no longer a rookie, but he is a young player that will be facing some of the best veteran pass rushers in the league.
Mike McCarthy is an incredibly smart offensive coach that handles the play calling. He knows Rodgers is the most important commodity in this game. He will likely use some max protection sets, some quick hitting slants, and some screen plays to keep the heat off Rodgers. Still, if you simplify too much, the Steelers will eat that up too, so at some point this offensive line is going to have to hold up and provide time against the blitz.
The Packers have had a very difficult road to the Super Bowl, and have dealt with strong pass rushers the whole way. They blocked the New York Giants vaunted pass rush in week 16 to the tune of 45 points. They effectively neutralized Julius Peppers twice in four weeks, handled Trent Cole, and limited John Abraham. They've beaten good defenses, and even thrived in some cases, but Pittsburgh is another category of scary.
Steeler coverage on Packer wideouts
If the Steelers have a weakness, or a relative weakness, it is their cornerback play. It's certainly not bad, but it isn't elite like the rest of the defense is. The Steelers ranked twelfth passing yards allowed per game this season. The Packers have perhaps the most potent passing attack in football thanks to the other-worldly play of Rodgers and the depth and talent at wideout with Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson. Polamalu is a time bomb in every phase of the game that can certainly alter the proceedings by making a huge hit or a miraculous interception. Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden should hold their own against Driver and Jennings, but depth will be an issue for Pittsburgh. William Gay is not a great third corner that will certainly struggle covering Green Bay's third and fourth receivers, guys who could start for plenty of teams.
Keep in mind, the last time Rodgers played in a dome–like he will in the Super Bowl–he was 31-36 for 366 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. And that was on the road! In Dallas there will be a neutral crowd, though admittedly, the Steelers' defense is much stronger than Atlanta's.
X Factors
First, let me give you my definition of "X Factor." It's a player that doesn't normally dominate the landscape of a game but has the potential to impact the Super Bowl to such a degree that, all other things being equal, he could be the difference. He's not the star; he's a guy that tips the balance of the game.
For example, the Packers' X Factor is Nick Collins. If both teams play well, both quarterbacks play well, both teams stop the run, and we have a well played relatively low scoring game, which is what I expect, Collins could be the guy that makes the game-changing play. He's involved in so many ways and so many facets of the game. This instinctive player with good ball skills has the ability to deliver a knockout hit, possibly causing a fumble, and he has the speed to play deep coverage. In a game where one turnover might be the difference, Collins could be the guy to provide it.
The Pittsburgh X-factor is Heath Miller. This is a guy that drives his man back in the run game, runs terrific routes, is incredibly savvy at getting open, and presents a size mismatch. At 6'5" Miller will tower over any Packers defensive back, and he is Roethlisberger's favorite target in the red zone. With a good throw, there is no defense for Miller's size and great hands. Again, if both teams play well, but Miller gets 5-7 catches and opens up more possibilities in the red zone, he could be the difference in a Pittsburgh victory.
--from Adam
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