Adam: -I've been back and forth on this game ten times this week. How do you even begin to break down a game with so many facets, matchups, angles, and variables? I guess you start a conversation with yourself and just go with what comes first.
And the first thing that comes to mind when I think of Packers vs. Steelers in the Super Bowl is quarterback play. Why? Sure, there are the obvious reasons. They touch the ball every play. They have the biggest impact on the game. The NFL has become a passing league. All of that. But more so because this game will be played in pristine indoor conditions, excellent for precise passing attacks, and on display will be two of the top five quarterbacks in the league today.
For a few reasons, I believe Aaron Rodgers is the single most important figure in this Super Bowl. The coaching staffs for both teams are thinking of one player more than any other, and that player is Rodgers. For the Green Bay coaching staff, the paramount, penultimate, number one priority is to protect Rodgers. For Mike Tomlin, Dick LeBeau and company, their main focus is to hit, hurry, distract, and disorient Rodgers. If Rodgers gets roughed up and plays poorly, the Steelers will, in effect, cut the head off the snake. A sub-par Rodgers means a crippled Green Bay passing game and likely a one-sided Super Bowl.
Consider that Pittsburgh's run defense is historically good after allowing just 62 yards per game in the regular season. Add the fact that the Packers have barely had a running game all season, and you see why so much pressure falls on Rodgers. The Packers likely won't be able to run, and if Mike McCarthy tires of pounding James Starks, Brandon Jackson, and John Kuhn for one or two yards a carry, he will abandon it altogether. Thus, Green Bay's points will surely come from the arm of Rodgers.
Protecting Ben Roethlisberger is not quite as important as protecting Rodgers because (1) Roethlisberger thrives when he's getting hit, breaking tackles, and extending the play, (2) Pittsburgh can balance out the Green Bay pass rush with their own solid running game, and (3) after enduring a barrage of body blows, Roethlisberger wouldn't be impacted the same way the smaller Rodgers would.
So with the necessity of protecting Rodgers understood, the questions remains. Can the Packers actually block Blitzburgh? Or rather, can they block them well enough for Rodgers and company to put up 23 points and allow the defense to do their part in limiting Roethlisberger? My definitive answer: um, I think so. Kind of. Just bare with me for a minute.
Earlier this season, two teams that utilize a spread out offensive attack and rely on their extremely accurate quarterbacks to make good decisions both beat the Steelers this year by somewhat comfortable margins, the Saints by 10 and the Patriots by 13. And though both New England and New Orleans probably have better offensive lines than Green Bay, Rodgers is playing as well right now as either Drew Brees or Tom Brady did this year. To further the comparison, New England and New Orleans also did not have great rushing attacks, much like Green Bay. Against the Steelers, Brees threw the ball 44 times for 305 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception in the Saints' win over the Steelers Week 8. The Saints ran the ball only 21 times. Brady threw the ball 43 times against Pittsburgh, completing 30 passes for 350 yards, three scores, and no interceptions. It's reasonable to assume that in a dome environment with little crowd impact that Rodgers could have similar success, or even exceed what Brees and Brady did against Pittsburgh.
Much of that though will depend on how Rodgers' offensive line plays. Chad Clifton is a good but not great left tackle that relies on solid balance, technique, and experience. He does not have brute strength or the prototypical athleticism you would look for in a franchise tackle–those days are gone for the veteran–but he made the Pro Bowl, and it wasn't undeserved. He played consistently well throughout the year. Book-ending Clifton is rookie tackle Brian Bulaga, who has never shown a glaring weakness or been dominated during a game. He never had a Tony Mandarich-"Reggie White is crushing that guy" type of game. And that's underselling it. Though he may have his rookie moments, he really never looks overwhelmed on the field. Moving inside, Scott Wells can be trusted at center not to make big holes in the ground game but to keep everything steady and be a solid pass blocker. Josh Sitton has become a very good guard in the NFL that plays well in both pass and run situations.
Just as vital as the play of the offensive line itself will be the scheme McCarthy designs to deal with Pittsburgh's pressure. Spreading the Steelers out is ideally what the Packers want to do, but they will often need to keep a back or tight end in to help block. They may want to do some max protection and just let Greg Jennings and Donald Driver make plays. It would be great to splice in the run game simply for the benefit of play action and to open up the rest of the playbook, but that's wishful thinking.
When McCarthy does spread the field, Rodgers' biggest advantage will be to see exactly where the blitz is coming from. Principally, it will come from Lamar Woodley, James Harrison, and Troy Polamalu, all lethal blitzers. Lawrence Timmons is maybe Pittsburgh's most athletic linebacker and he will blitz up the middle on occasion as well. When Pittsburgh blitzes however, Rodgers will have one-on-one coverage, and the Steelers' corners are going to get beat. With even a little time to throw, Rodgers will make the Steelers pay. When Polamalu blitzes, it's difficult to block, but it also takes the Steelers' best cover man out of the secondary.
With two weeks to prepare, a great offensive coach, the best quarterback playing right now, and a deep core of receivers, Green Bay is going to move the ball and score some points. Pittsburgh has a tremendous defense, but the thing they are worst at defending will be what Green Bay wants to do the most. I really do doubt that the Packers will run the ball more than eighteen times simply because it won't be effective. Normally you would say that makes them one-dimensional, and thus, advantage: Steelers. But with a superstar, quick-release quarterback playing indoors, it could just mean a long day for the one chink in the Pittsburgh defense's armor, their cornerback play.
Thus far we've spoken about the part of the game everyone really wants to watch: that vaunted Steeler defense against the poetry in motion that is Green Bay's passing attack. Yet, both the Green Bay defense and the Steeler offense are being undersold in this game. Roethlisberger, Rashard Mendenhall, Mike Wallace, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews, BJ Raji, Nick Collins, Tramon Williams. Is that enough intrigue for you?
Pittsburgh's offense, while it won't steal the headlines, is always just what it needs to be. It can be ugly for stretches, but Roethlisberger seems to have a "key drive" button that he pushes in the last five minutes of a half or the game, and the Steelers always seem to click at crucial moments. You might see a drive where Big Ben makes three plays where you think, "He's down. They got him. Sack! Oh, wait, he's slipping out, and oh no, he sees a man open...was that a stiff arm?...oh crap, he completed it for a first down." He breaks the will of defense when he continually extends plays that should have ended as a sack or a throw away.
Mendenhall is one of the most talented running backs in the league with a rare combination of power, speed, and moves. He can be a workhorse, but I think he'll be limited with the injury to Maurkice Pouncey, not to mention that both the Steelers' offensive tackles are really fill-in guys. Plus, Raji, Cullen Jenkins, and Ryan Pickett are bringing about 1,000 pounds of pain to the party.
The Packers want Pittsburgh to pass because they do not want the Steelers to control the clock with the run game. Despite Roethlisberger's ad-lib greatness, the Packers know that the Steelers' offensive line is overmatched and that they should be able to force Roethlisberger into some mistakes. Stop Mendenhall, and suddenly guys named Jonathan Scott, Doug Legursky, and Ramon Foster are trying to block Matthews, the three big boys up front, and Woodson coming on the blitz. Roethlisberger is great outside the pocket, but if he has to throw the ball 35+ times, Pittsburgh is going to lose because they won't be able to protect well enough.
The Packers' secondary, which is hardly mentioned, is one of the best in the league. Williams can be relied upon as a top-flight cover man who makes the big play, and rookie Sam Shields is just about the only guy on the planet as fast as Wallace. Toss in Woodson, last year's Defensive Player of the Year that Redskins tight end Chris Cooley calls "the best player in the NFL," and Pro Bowl safety Collins; Pittsburgh receivers should be blanketed all day.
Raji is one of the best nose tackles in the league; he'll be facing a backup center. Matthews was second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting; he'll be rushing against two backup offensive tackles. More from Cooley, he praises Matthews saying that the Redskins were unable to pass simply because he was on the field. Look out, Ben.
Roethlisberger is going to make his share of plays and Pittsburgh's defense is excellent. That said, the Packers' defense allowed only 15 points per game this year and have gotten better every week since mid-way through the season. With great talent across the lineup and many of those guys will be going against Pittsburgh's backup-level players, the Packers are completely capable of being the best defense on the field Sunday.
Green Bay won't move the ball at will or anything like that, but I think this game, this environment, and the way these teams matchup, it overall favors the Pack. Like I said, Green Bay's defense could be the best on Super Sunday. I just don't think Pittsburgh's offense can say the same about themselves.
So what it all comes down to: two great defenses and one great offense. Get ready Title Town, ol' Lombardi is coming home.
Adam's Prediction: Packers 27 – Steelers 19
Eric: -In order to win the Pick-Down, I have to pick the opposite of Adam. Thus...
Eric's Prediction: Steelers 28 – Packers 26
| Matchup | Adam's Pick | Eric's Pick |
|---|---|---|
Steelers vs. Packers | Packers | Steelers |
Adam | Eric | |
Conference Championship Record | 2-0 | 2-0 |
Conference Championship Points | 12 | 12 |
Total Points | 174 | 169 |
Playoff Record | 7-3 | 5-5 |
Combined Record (Regular Season and Playoffs) | 155-111 | 156-110 |
great post - Go Pack
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