New England Patriots
It seems weird to say because the New England Patriots have played at such a high level over the past few years, but this team hasn’t won the Super Bowl in six seasons, and that’s a disappointment. Even last year, after rolling to a 14-2 record the usually clutch Pats failed to get it done in the playoffs. It’s high time for Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and company to get back to football’s biggest stage.
A stable of talent surrounds the ever all-world Brady: Deion Branch, Wes Welker, second year tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, young guns Brandon Tate and Taylor Price, plus the high profile Chad Ochocinco. Branch, Welker, Ochocinco, and the tight end duo provide Brady with the great chain-moving, middle-of-the-field targets he covets, while Tate and Price have the speed to stretch defenses vertically. Brady loves to use multiple targets, and he’ll have as many weapons as ever heading into 2011.
Finally getting a long-term deal done with top flight guard Logan Mankins solidifies an offensive line that already boasts excellent players Matt Light, Dan Koppen, and Stephen Neal as well as up-and-comers Sebastian Vollmer and rookie Nate Solder. Deep and talented, New England’s offensive line will more than ably give Brady time to pick apart defenses.
Running back-by-committee will again be the strategy this year in New England. The committee will just be a bit larger with rookies Shane Vareen and Stevan Ridley joining the stable of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Kevin Faulk.
On defense the Pats may finally be turning into the perfect blend of youth and experience. Old pros on the defensive line Shaun Ellis and Vince Wilfork join young studs Jerod Mayo, Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Cunninghanm, Gary Guyton, and Brandon Spikes to form a front seven with both savvy and speed.
Adding Albert Haynesworth is low-risk/high-reward since they gave up virtually nothing to acquire the moody big man. If he flops, the damage is minimal. I like how New England uses countless alignments, so I expect they will find a way to maximize Fat Albert.
Pat Chung and Brandon Meriweather form one of the best young safety duos in football, both capable of ball hawking and making open field tackles. With the first pick of the second round the Pats drafted physical corner Ras-I Dowling, who could make an impact at one of the Pats few weak points. Dowling, Darius Butler, and Devin McCourty have a chance to make up a really nice trio of cover men.
If the Pats can generate more pass rush between the addition of Haynesworth and the growth of Cunningham and Dunlap, they could again be a dominant defense. Add in an offense with an versatile array of backs and pass catchers, and you can see why this is Hill 364’s consensus pick for AFC Champion.
Biggest Strengths: The men at the top, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Biggest Weaknesses: New England must improve its pass rush, and though they’ve made it work in the past, an offense without a true feature back puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback.
Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC East
Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in AFC East
New York Jets
Rex Ryan’s bunch may have spent too much time drooling over Nhamdi Asoumgha and not enough time working to plug other holes on their roster. Losing out on Asoughma in the end, the New York Jets did little to improve a team that has been on the cusp of the Super Bowl two years running.
If Mark Sanchez doesn’t take a quantum leap this year and become a top-10 passer in the league, this offense could really struggle considering all it lost. Gone are the jack-of-all-trades Brad Smith, now with division rival Buffalo; the talented Braylon Edwards, who now calls San Francisco home; and Jerricho Cotchery, who went to Pittsburgh. Picking up Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason may seem like nice moves on paper, but 32- and 37-year-old receivers usually don’t tip a team over the Super Bowl precipice.
Shonn Greene has big time ability at running back, but he may have to become a superstar overnight for this offense to really produce. LaDanian Tomlinson had a nice resurgence last year, but the 32-year-old running back faded fast down the stretch. How much does he have left in those legs for this season?
All-Pros D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold make up an excellent core of an offensive line, and Brandon Moore is a sound player at guard. Right tackle and the other guard spot are less solid, but the overall unit is very good.
Although the Jets are famous for their blitzing defensive style, they don’t have any great, singular pass rushers. Probably their best pure rusher, Calvin Pace had just 5.5 sacks in twelve games last year. Nose tackle Kris Jenkins has retired after multiple knee injuries, and now their defensive line is populated by rookies and unspectacular veterans. The strength of the front comes in the form of linebackers Bart Scott, who is aging, and David Harris, yet neither is much of a sack artist.
What make the Jets defense go are their cornerbacks, where Darelle Revis is the best in the business when healthy. Opposite Revis the Jets re-signed Antonio Cromartie, who is great in man-to-man coverage but struggles making tackles and takes too many risks. Last year’s first-round pick Kyle Wilson should push for more time on the field as a nickel and sometimes starting corner this year.
Ultimately, the season is going to ride on Sanchez’ development, because a lot of weapons walked out the door and the defense didn’t land the big prize it was hoping to. After reaching back-to-back AFC Championship Games, this team seems poised to take at least a small step back.
Biggest Strengths: Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie may be the best cornerback duo in football, and the offensive line is among the league's elite as well.
Biggest Weaknesses: Lack of weapons on offense, and lack of talent in the front seven.
Adam’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in AFC East
Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC East
Miami Dolphins
Everyone seems to despise the Miami Dolphins’ Chad Henne, and I’m not here to sing his praises, but he’s produced at about the same level as Mark Sanchez without as much talent around him. Last year Sanchez posted a 75.3 passer rating, Henne a 75.4, but the media is a powerful tool and has made a star of Sanchez before he’s actually become one. Of course I realize Henne’s teams have been hovering around .500 and Sanchez has been to two-straight AFC Title Games, but in terms of quarterback production alone, the difference is pretty minimal.
Unfortunately for Henne, both members of a formerly dynamic backfield—Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams—have left town, and now it looks as though scatback Reggie Bush will be asked to be a feature back, something everyone but Reggie Bush seems to know he’s not capable of.
With the running game in trouble, even more pressure will be heaped on Henne, especially with the Dolphin fan-base up in arms that management balked on a potential trade for veteran signal caller Kyle Orton.
On the bright side, Henne will have superstar Brandon Marshall to throw to, and I would imagine Marshall will see more targets than just about any other receiver in the league. Anthony Fasano is a reliable pass-catching tight end but not the type of player that defenses really have to gameplan for.
Jake Long is one of the best left tackles in the game, Vernon Carey is solid at guard, and if Mike Pouncey is anything like his brother, the Dolphins should be set at center, but there are still holes along the offensive line.
Miami really only has one guy, Marshall, that is going to scare defenses, and any defense can take away one guy. A lot is going to fall on Henne and Bush, and I don’t believe they are ready to carry the load.
Miami is still searching for the right mix of players to lock down its defensive line. Last year’s first-round pick, Jared Odrick, needs to develop into an impact player before things can come together. A huge nose tackle, Paul Soliai moves pretty well but doesn’t make enough plays given his size, strength, and athletic ability.
Karlos Dansby is a very good linebacker still in his prime at age 29. Solid tackler Kevin Burnett, who made 95 tackles for the Chargers last year, flanks Dansby, as does sack master Cameron Wake, who came out of nowhere in 2010 to tally 14 quarterback takedowns. If young linebacker Koa Misi can take a step in his development, add in the return of Jason Taylor as a situational pass rusher and the Dolphins could boast one of the better linebacking groups in football.
Vontae Davis has as much athletic ability as anyone and showed it in flashes last year. If Davis puts it all together—both the mental and the physical aspects of the game—he can be a star cover man. Opposite Davis is the young Sean Smith, who at 6’3” and 214 pounds has safety size and corner speed. This could be a very good duo moving forward. Though aging, safety Yeremiah Bell is very good in run support, tallying over 100 tackles last year.
The Miami defense has the pieces to be a top-10 unit, but getting there will depend on young players stepping into leadership roles. However, the defense will have to be great to provide this team with a shot at the playoffs because offensively it’s pretty much Henne and Marshall vs. the world.
Biggest Strengths: Brandon Marshall is an elite wideout, talent abounds in the linebacking corps, and they have a promising young corner duo.
Biggest Weaknesses: Beyond Marshall, Miami lacks offensive weapons, and the defensive line is a work in progress.
Adam’s Predicition: 5-11, Third in AFC East
Eric’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Yikes. What else is there to say about a Buffalo Bills team that won just four games last year then in the offseason proceeded to lose their best linebacker (Paul Posluszny) a very good safety (Donte Whitner) and their second-best wide receiver (Lee Evans)?
Ryan Fitzpatrick will completely underwhelm you with physical ability, but he is accurate, smart, and he can get the ball out of his hands, which is more to be said than of many other quarterbacks. He won’t lose games for Buffalo; he just won’t take them over either.
CJ Spiller needs to take more carries away from feature back Fred Jackson to make more of a balanced rushing attack, combining Jackson’s power and Spiller’s electric speed.
Stevie Johnson proved to be a rising star at receiver a year ago, but he is the lone threat in the receiving corps.
Also, the offensive line—for what seems like the fifth year in a row—is under serious reconstruction.
Offensively they may be good for a few exciting plays, but they don’t have the consistency up front or the array of weapons to sustain drives and put up points game in and game out.
This offseason Buffalo made two strong moves defensively: cutting ties with abject failure Aaron Maybin and drafting nasty defensive lineman Marcel Dareus with the third overall pick.
Pairing at defensive tackle, Dareus and Kyle Williams (a Pro Bowl alternate last year) should prove to be the strength of the team, which makes cutting ties with Posluszny and Whitner all the more puzzling. Having Dareus and Williams anchor the middle of the line, then Posluszny at middle linebacker and Whitner at strong safety would have made the Bills downright formidable against the run, but they chose to let those two high quality players walk.
Ex-Packer Nick Barnett will recognize the cold weather in Buffalo, but he won’t be used to all the losing. He should nicely fill in for Posluszny, but Barnett is five years older and not near the same level of athlete at this point, especially coming off an injury. Barnett may well be the best the Bills linebacking group has to offer, having Shawne Merriman’s career evaporated before our eyes.
Terrence McGee, Leodis McKelvin, and Jarius Byrd make up a very good secondary, certainly the most proven unit on the team, but it certainly won’t be enough to make up for the Bills numerous other deficiencies.
This team doesn’t have the weapons, experience, or depth to come anywhere close to tasting playoff glory.
Biggest Strengths: The defensive tackle tandem and secondary are the Bills’ lone bright spots.
Biggest Weaknesses: They lack an offensive line, receiving options, and linebackers.
Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC East
Eric’s Prediction: 5-11, Fourth in AFC East
--from @AdamHocking
No comments:
Post a Comment