AFC South: 2011 Division Preview

Houston Texans

Over the last few seasons, the Houston Texans have had a 12-4 offense and a 4-12 defense, and they always finished 8-8 and out of the playoff race.  Such offensive potential always had sports fans and pundits salivating and saying, “This is finally the year Houston overtakes Indy for the AFC South title.”  Yet the Texans’ defensive shortcomings always proved otherwise.  So when I predict the Texans take the division this season, I do so with the expectation that Houston’s new-look defense will be much better than its 2010 version.

Starting with the knowns on offense, Matt Schaub is a Pro Bowl passer that always puts up huge numbers and commands the offense very well.  Arian Foster is just 24 and is coming off a league rushing title, though losing lead blocker Vonta Leach will hurt.  Andre Johnson is arguably the best receiver in the league.

Owen Daniels has made a Pro Bowl at tight end and appears to be healthy so far, but the injury bug has bitten him the past two seasons.  If he stays on the field, Daniels’ contributions make this offense take the step from good to great.

While the offensive line lacks big names, their production is undeniable, last year paving the way for the league’s leading rusher and allowing Schaub the time to amass well over 4,000 yards through the air.

Houston desperately needed to improve its defense, and it did just that this offseason.  Under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, the Texans first added number one pick JJ Watt, who brings great versatility and playmaking ability to the front line.  Second-round pick Brooks Reed adds even more speed to the already stocked pass rushing cabinet of the Texans.  Mario Williams will be asked to move to 3-4 outside linebacker and essentially play the Demarcus Ware role Phillips established in Dallas, a glorified pass rusher.  Plenty athletic to play standing up, Super Mario could be even more effective than he was in the 4-3.

If the Texans can solidify the nose tackle position, DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing round out what could be a fantastic front seven.

The Houston secondary was historically bad last year, and if it could improve to simply a little below average unit this season, it could make all the difference.  Considering the improvements to the pass rush and front seven, there will be less of a burden on the back four.  Adding star cornerback Jonathan Joseph was a huge coup for Houston, and a smarter move than spending twice as much on the other big free agent corner, Nnamdi Asoumgha, a player three years older than Joseph.  Brandon Harris was also drafted to help at the corner spot, and Kareem Jackson is looking to rebound after an abysmal rookie season last year despite being the twentieth overall selection.

Biggest Strengths: Elite offensive firepower in Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson.

Biggest Weaknesses: An unproven secondary.

Adam’s Prediction: 10-6, First in AFC South

Eric’s Prediction: 11-5, Second in AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

Some see last year’s drop from the true NFL elite as a mere aberration that will be forgotten this year as the Indianapolis Colts rise back to the top of the standings.  I tend to see it more as a sign of things to come, though Indy will still be a very good team this year.  Quite simply, the Colts are getting older.  Peyton Manning is having some minor bumps and bruises, and the wear and tear of thirteen NFL seasons has to be getting to him on some level.

Still, Manning’s as good as it gets at his position, and with toys like Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie to play with, the offense should remain one of the league’s best.

The offensive line needed to get better than they were in 2010, and the Colts addressed that major need with two of their top picks in the draft, tackle Anthony Costanzo and guard Ben Ijalana.  Costanzo should come in and be solid right away and add some physicality to a typically finesse Colts line.  Jeff Saturday is a stalwart at center, but he’s 36.  The guards are average.  Ryan Diem is still a solid tackle and could form a sound pair of bookends with Costanzo, but this unit better gel fast if the Colts hope to protect their lotto ticket, #18.

Defensively, the Colts are still all about speed but yet again seem to be chronically undersized.

Dwight Freeney is still a superstar when healthy, and Robert Mathis has quietly averaged 10 sacks per year over the last seven years.  Jerry Hughes, the second-year man from TCU, should ingratiate himself more into the pass rush this season as well.

Coming from Chicago, defensive tackle Tommie Harris brings immense talent, but his health is always in question.  He’s great at shooting the gap and providing penetration but he gets banged up way to much.  Defensive tackles Fili Moala and rookie Drake Nevis need to contribute as big bodies in the middle to help the Colts’ run defense improve, an area where they have historically been soft.

Gary Brackett is an incredibly smart linebacker, but his age and physical limitations are catching up with him.  Compiling 88 tackles as a rookie, former Hawkeye Pat Angerer showed promise last year, and new addition Ernie Sims can help if he’s healthy.

Jeraud Powers is a nice young corner, and the safety tandem of Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea is one of the better duos in the league.

For Indianapolis, the best defense is a good offense, and it all starts with Manning.  If the Colts can get a lead then they can unleash their pass rushers, but in close games teams will be able to pound the ball with the running game, keeping Manning and his offense off the field.

Biggest Strengths: Peyton Manning.

Biggest Weaknesses: The run defense is a huge question mark.

Adam’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC South

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in AFC South

Tennessee Titans

Raise your hand if you have no idea what to make of the Tennessee Titans.  Raise your hand if you have no idea if Matt Hasselbeck is the guy who went crazy against the Saints in last year’s Wild Card game or the guy who tossed 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions during the regular season.  This is a hard team to figure, but if they get Chris Johnson signed, which I expect they will, they could be dangerous for anybody.

Hasselbeck played on a talent-depleted team last year in Seattle, and had nowhere near the running game he will have in Tennessee this year, so we may see an improvement out of him.  But if things go south for the Titans, do expect to see rookie Jake Locker.

Hasselbeck thrives off of play-action, which should be a real threat considering Johnson and Tennessee’s running prowess.  The Titans’ offensive line is one of the best groups in the league, and fullback Amhard Hall is a strong lead blocker.

An emerging star at receiver, Kenny Britt should be Hasselbeck’s go-to guy, and Nate Washington is a good vertical threat on the other side.  Beyond Britt and Washington the receiving corps is pretty thin.

The Titans need last year’s top pick, Derrick Morgan, to bounce back from an injury-ruined rookie campaign and become the pass rusher they expected.  Jason Jones is an undersized yet underrated player at defensive tackle, and the Shaun Smith adds size, if not much, else next to him.

Tackling machine Barrett Rudd was added via free agency, an excellent pick up after the departure of last year’s leading tackler Stephen Tulloch.  Second-round linebacker Akeem Ayers needs to join Morgan in pressuring quarterbacks.

The strength of the defense still lies in the secondary where Cortland Finnegan, Chris Hope, and Michael Griffin are all very good players.

Biggest Strengths: Running game.

Biggest Weaknesses: Uncertainty in the defensive front seven.

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Third in AFC South

Eric’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

Contrary to popular belief, there is still an NFL franchise in Jacksonville.

David Garrard had excellent numbers last year for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he never felt like a guy who could go out and win a game by putting his team on his shoulders.  Even posting a 91 passer rating, Garrard still felt like a game manager.

Maurice Jones-Drew is a superstar back that can do everything, and he’ll need to if Jacksonville wants to score some points.

Beyond Mike Thomas, who is just famous for catching last year’s Hail Mary, the Jaguars have zero wide receivers with any real ability.  Marcedes Lewis really broke out last season and will likely be the top target this year, but whenever the tight end can be double-covered without much concern for other receivers, you have a problem.

After investing a lot of high picks in the offensive line the past few years, that group now looks ready to come together.

The Jags offense seems to be getting everything in place for Blaine Gabbert to take over in a year or two: promising offensive linemen, stud running back, talented tight end, and now they just need to add some receivers.  That made the fact that they let Mike Sims-Walker leave for St. Louis a little puzzling as he was by far their most dangerous wideout.

Though Jacksonville majorly reached for Tyson Alualu in the draft last year, Alualu played excellently as a rookie and forms one of the better tackle tandems in the league alongside fellow youngster Terrance Knighton.  Paul Posluszny was a great signing that should make the Jags very tough up the middle.  Knighton and Alualu will penetrate and occupy blocks while Posluszny gobbles up tackles.

Rashean Mathis is now 30 but is still a good corner in this league.  The problem is, outside of Mathis, Knighton, Alualu, and Posluszny, there isn’t a ton of talent on the defense, and the offense is certainly not going to be expolsive.

Biggest Strengths: Defensive tackles Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton and middle linebacker Paul Posluszny make for an exciting core of the defense.

Biggest Weaknesses: Seriously, google their group of receivers.

Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC South

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC South

--from @AdamHocking

AFC North: 2011 Division Preview

Baltimore Ravens

Does Joe Flacco have another level of play, or has he plateaued?  The answer to that question will determine whether the Baltimore Ravens are a Super Bowl threat or simply a good, playoff-level team.
 

Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, and Lee Evans give Flacco plenty of weapons, and the offensive line is excellent.  Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson will push each other at tight end and provide extra targets in the middle of the field as well.
 

Offseason acquisition Ricky Williams will be a good second back behind Rice, and Vonta Leach was brought in—the best fullback in football—to pave the way for a powerful running attack.
 

Though he gets less credit than Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, both good players who are really getting up there in years, mammoth defensive lineman Haloti Ngata is the best player on the Ravens’ defense.  Former Texan Bernard Pollard, a solid safety, comes in to pair with Reed.
 

Considering Terrell Suggs is a pass rushing monster when healthy, Lewis is an All-Pro in the middle, and Reed plays spectacularly on the back end, even with aging stars the Baltimore defense is still a top-5 unit in the league, but cornerback is a big concern.  First round pick Jimmy Smith has huge talent as a cover man, but he’s a rookie corner; that’s usually a dicey situation.  Chris Carr is decent as is Ladarious Webb, but they don’t have a single lockdown cover guy.
 

Biggest Strengths: Behind a road-grating offensive line and a powerhouse fullback, Ray Rice and Ricky Williams will run rampant over opposing defenses.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Corner.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC North
 

Pittsburgh Steelers
 

Will the defending AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers have a hangover from their Super Bowl loss?  Hard to say, but talent still abounds on this roster.
 

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is unconventional but still a great player, a winner pure and simple as his three Super Bowl appearances and two rings can attest.
 

Mike Wallace is probably the best deep threat in the league, and Jerricho Cotchery and Hines Ward provide good possession targets outside.  In addition, though more of a blocker, tight end Heath Miller, adeptly catches passes too and is a red zone force.
 

Rashard Mendenhall as the feature back has proven to be a talented runner over the past two years, but the offensive line is suspect beyond Maurkice Pouncey.
 

The Pittsburgh defense should again be vicious, spearheaded by their stout front line of Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, and Brett Keisel.  Rookie first rounder Cameron Heyward injects youth and talent into this aging group.
 

The Steelers have the best linebackers in the league with nasty edge rushers James Harrison and Lamar Woodley and the Lawrence Timmons emerging as a star inside.  James Farrior is still a good player but at age 36 has clearly lost a step.
 

Corner is a weak spot on this team, but they can usually make up for it with a heavy dose of pass rush and the flying Troy Polamalu, perhaps the best defensive player in the league when healthy.
 

Biggest Strengths: Their defensive playmakers Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: What they have at cornerback doesn't stack up with the rest of the defense, and the offensive line leaves something to be desired.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, Second in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC North
 

Cleveland Browns
 

This may be the year we find out if Colt McCoy can be a good starting quarterback in the NFL.  He doesn’t have to be a star, but if he can play consistently and not lose his team games, the Cleveland Browns will be competitive.
 

Peyton Hillis is a powerful running back, but there has to be at least a slight concern that last year was a flash in the pan.
 

The Browns have very little in terms of perimeter threats, really any good receiving options.  Featuring Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, and Alex Mack, the offensive line is very good.  They will need to be to give McCoy time to throw as the receivers won’t create much separation.

The defense is largely unproven and riddled with no-name players.  Second-year men Joe Haden and TJ Ward need to make big strides to make the secondary formidable.  The defensive line is a work in progress evidenced by the Brownies spending their first two draft picks on linemen Phil Taylor and Jabal Sheard.
 

Biggest Strengths: The offensive line is one the league’s best and will make life at least a little easier for young Colt McCoy and the bruising Peyton Hillis.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: An overall lack of talent; outside of Joe Thomas, no one on the Browns is top-10 league-wide at his position.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in AFC North
 

Cincinnati Bengals
 

The Cincinnati Bengals are definitely in the running for worst record in the league this year, but the great thing about the NFL is that some team surprises you every year.  Bengals fans can cling to that hope, though I consider their outlook very murky.
 

Carson Palmer looks to be firm in his stance that he will retire if he’s not traded, and the Bengals equally firm in that they will not trade Palmer.  That likely means rookie Andy Dalton will be thrown into the fire as the starter, and though he’s a smart and accurate passer, the NFL is a far cry from Texas Christian University.
 

Cedric Benson has quite a bit of wear on the tires, and though he can be a workhorse back, he’s not going to give you much on anything in terms of explosive plays.
 

AJ Green has superstar potential and he will grow up with Dalton which should form a nice duo in the future, but I wouldn’t expect miracles right away.
 

The offensive line is average at best, and it’s high time for Andre Smith to live up to his status as a top-10 draft pick.
 

Defensively the Bengals have some promising young talent.  Despite character concerns—always a popular theme in Cincinnati—Carlos Dunlap came in last year and finished with 9.5 sacks as a rookie.  Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and new addition Manny Lawson give the Bengals one of the most athletic linebacking units in football, though all three players still have plenty to prove.
 

Losing Jonathan Joseph slices away half of what was one of the best corner back duos in the game.  Joseph’s former partner in crime, Leon Hall, now has to look forward to playing opposite either Nate Clements or Pacman Jones.
 

This is a young team with talent but also an overwhelming amount of inexperience, and that should show throughout the season.
 

Biggest Strengths: Young talent abounds with the likes of Andy Dalton, AJ Green, Carlos Dunlap, Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and Leon Hall.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: The team relies entirely on its unproven/inexperienced NFL players.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in AFC North
 

Eric’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC North

--from @AdamHocking

AFC East: 2011 Division Preview

New England Patriots
 

It seems weird to say because the New England Patriots have played at such a high level over the past few years, but this team hasn’t won the Super Bowl in six seasons, and that’s a disappointment.  Even last year, after rolling to a 14-2 record the usually clutch Pats failed to get it done in the playoffs.  It’s high time for Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and company to get back to football’s biggest stage.
 

A stable of talent surrounds the ever all-world Brady: Deion Branch, Wes Welker, second year tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, young guns Brandon Tate and Taylor Price, plus the high profile Chad Ochocinco.  Branch, Welker, Ochocinco, and the tight end duo provide Brady with the great chain-moving, middle-of-the-field targets he covets, while Tate and Price have the speed to stretch defenses vertically.  Brady loves to use multiple targets, and he’ll have as many weapons as ever heading into 2011.
 

Finally getting a long-term deal done with top flight guard Logan Mankins solidifies an offensive line that already boasts excellent players Matt Light, Dan Koppen, and Stephen Neal as well as up-and-comers Sebastian Vollmer and rookie Nate Solder.  Deep and talented, New England’s offensive line will more than ably give Brady time to pick apart defenses.
 

Running back-by-committee will again be the strategy this year in New England.  The committee will just be a bit larger with rookies Shane Vareen and Stevan Ridley joining the stable of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Kevin Faulk.
 

On defense the Pats may finally be turning into the perfect blend of youth and experience.  Old pros on the defensive line Shaun Ellis and Vince Wilfork join young studs Jerod Mayo, Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Cunninghanm, Gary Guyton, and Brandon Spikes to form a front seven with both savvy and speed.
 

Adding Albert Haynesworth is low-risk/high-reward since they gave up virtually nothing to acquire the moody big man.  If he flops, the damage is minimal.  I like how New England uses countless alignments, so I expect they will find a way to maximize Fat Albert.
 

Pat Chung and Brandon Meriweather form one of the best young safety duos in football, both capable of ball hawking and making open field tackles.  With the first pick of the second round the Pats drafted physical corner Ras-I Dowling, who could make an impact at one of the Pats few weak points.  Dowling, Darius Butler, and Devin McCourty have a chance to make up a really nice trio of cover men.
 

If the Pats can generate more pass rush between the addition of Haynesworth and the growth of Cunningham and Dunlap, they could again be a dominant defense.  Add in an offense with an versatile array of backs and pass catchers, and you can see why this is Hill 364’s consensus pick for AFC Champion.
 

Biggest Strengths: The men at the top, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: New England must improve its pass rush, and though they’ve made it work in the past, an offense without a true feature back puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 13-3, First in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 12-4, First in AFC East
 

New York Jets
 

Rex Ryan’s bunch may have spent too much time drooling over Nhamdi Asoumgha and not enough time working to plug other holes on their roster.  Losing out on Asoughma in the end, the New York Jets did little to improve a team that has been on the cusp of the Super Bowl two years running.
 

If Mark Sanchez doesn’t take a quantum leap this year and become a top-10 passer in the league, this offense could really struggle considering all it lost.  Gone are the jack-of-all-trades Brad Smith, now with division rival Buffalo; the talented Braylon Edwards, who now calls San Francisco home; and Jerricho Cotchery, who went to Pittsburgh.  Picking up Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason may seem like nice moves on paper, but 32- and 37-year-old receivers usually don’t tip a team over the Super Bowl precipice.
 

Shonn Greene has big time ability at running back, but he may have to become a superstar overnight for this offense to really produce.  LaDanian Tomlinson had a nice resurgence last year, but the 32-year-old running back faded fast down the stretch.  How much does he have left in those legs for this season?
 

All-Pros D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold make up an excellent core of an offensive line, and Brandon Moore is a sound player at guard.  Right tackle and the other guard spot are less solid, but the overall unit is very good.
 

Although the Jets are famous for their blitzing defensive style, they don’t have any great, singular pass rushers.  Probably their best pure rusher, Calvin Pace had just 5.5 sacks in twelve games last year.  Nose tackle Kris Jenkins has retired after multiple knee injuries, and now their defensive line is populated by rookies and unspectacular veterans.  The strength of the front comes in the form of linebackers Bart Scott, who is aging, and David Harris, yet neither is much of a sack artist.
 

What make the Jets defense go are their cornerbacks, where Darelle Revis is the best in the business when healthy.  Opposite Revis the Jets re-signed Antonio Cromartie, who is great in man-to-man coverage but struggles making tackles and takes too many risks.  Last year’s first-round pick Kyle Wilson should push for more time on the field as a nickel and sometimes starting corner this year.
 

Ultimately, the season is going to ride on Sanchez’ development, because a lot of weapons walked out the door and the defense didn’t land the big prize it was hoping to.  After reaching back-to-back AFC Championship Games, this team seems poised to take at least a small step back.
 

Biggest Strengths: Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie may be the best cornerback duo in football, and the offensive line is among the league's elite as well.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Lack of weapons on offense, and lack of talent in the front seven.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 9-7, Second in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in AFC East
 

Miami Dolphins
 

Everyone seems to despise the Miami Dolphins’ Chad Henne, and I’m not here to sing his praises, but he’s produced at about the same level as Mark Sanchez without as much talent around him.  Last year Sanchez posted a 75.3 passer rating, Henne a 75.4, but the media is a powerful tool and has made a star of Sanchez before he’s actually become one.  Of course I realize Henne’s teams have been hovering around .500 and Sanchez has been to two-straight AFC Title Games, but in terms of quarterback production alone, the difference is pretty minimal.
 

Unfortunately for Henne, both members of a formerly dynamic backfield—Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams—have left town, and now it looks as though scatback Reggie Bush will be asked to be a feature back, something everyone but Reggie Bush seems to know he’s not capable of.
 

With the running game in trouble, even more pressure will be heaped on Henne, especially with the Dolphin fan-base up in arms that management balked on a potential trade for veteran signal caller Kyle Orton.
 

On the bright side, Henne will have superstar Brandon Marshall to throw to, and I would imagine Marshall will see more targets than just about any other receiver in the league.  Anthony Fasano is a reliable pass-catching tight end but not the type of player that defenses really have to gameplan for.

Jake Long is one of the best left tackles in the game, Vernon Carey is solid at guard, and if Mike Pouncey is anything like his brother, the Dolphins should be set at center, but there are still holes along the offensive line.
 

Miami really only has one guy, Marshall, that is going to scare defenses, and any defense can take away one guy.  A lot is going to fall on Henne and Bush, and I don’t believe they are ready to carry the load.
 

Miami is still searching for the right mix of players to lock down its defensive line.  Last year’s first-round pick, Jared Odrick, needs to develop into an impact player before things can come together.   A huge nose tackle, Paul Soliai moves pretty well but doesn’t make enough plays given his size, strength, and athletic ability.
 

Karlos Dansby is a very good linebacker still in his prime at age 29.  Solid tackler Kevin Burnett, who made 95 tackles for the Chargers last year, flanks Dansby, as does sack master Cameron Wake, who came out of nowhere in 2010 to tally 14 quarterback takedowns.  If young linebacker Koa Misi can take a step in his development, add in the return of Jason Taylor as a situational pass rusher and the Dolphins could boast one of the better linebacking groups in football.
 

Vontae Davis has as much athletic ability as anyone and showed it in flashes last year.  If Davis puts it all together—both the mental and the physical aspects of the game—he can be a star cover man.  Opposite Davis is the young Sean Smith, who at 6’3” and 214 pounds has safety size and corner speed.  This could be a very good duo moving forward.  Though aging, safety Yeremiah Bell is very good in run support, tallying over 100 tackles last year.
 

The Miami defense has the pieces to be a top-10 unit, but getting there will depend on young players stepping into leadership roles.  However, the defense will have to be great to provide this team with a shot at the playoffs because offensively it’s pretty much Henne and Marshall vs. the world.
 

Biggest Strengths: Brandon Marshall is an elite wideout, talent abounds in the linebacking corps, and they have a promising young corner duo.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: Beyond Marshall, Miami lacks offensive weapons, and the defensive line is a work in progress.
 

Adam’s Predicition: 5-11, Third in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 6-10, Third in AFC East
 

Buffalo Bills
 

Yikes.  What else is there to say about a Buffalo Bills team that won just four games last year then in the offseason proceeded to lose their best linebacker (Paul Posluszny) a very good safety (Donte Whitner) and their second-best wide receiver (Lee Evans)?
 

Ryan Fitzpatrick will completely underwhelm you with physical ability, but he is accurate, smart, and he can get the ball out of his hands, which is more to be said than of many other quarterbacks.  He won’t lose games for Buffalo; he just won’t take them over either.
 

CJ Spiller needs to take more carries away from feature back Fred Jackson to make more of a balanced rushing attack, combining Jackson’s power and Spiller’s electric speed.
 

Stevie Johnson proved to be a rising star at receiver a year ago, but he is the lone threat in the receiving corps.
 

Also, the offensive line—for what seems like the fifth year in a row—is under serious reconstruction.
 

Offensively they may be good for a few exciting plays, but they don’t have the consistency up front or the array of weapons to sustain drives and put up points game in and game out.
 

This offseason Buffalo made two strong moves defensively: cutting ties with abject failure Aaron Maybin and drafting nasty defensive lineman Marcel Dareus with the third overall pick.
 

Pairing at defensive tackle, Dareus and Kyle Williams (a Pro Bowl alternate last year) should prove to be the strength of the team, which makes cutting ties with Posluszny and Whitner all the more puzzling.  Having Dareus and Williams anchor the middle of the line, then Posluszny at middle linebacker and Whitner at strong safety would have made the Bills downright formidable against the run, but they chose to let those two high quality players walk.
 

Ex-Packer Nick Barnett will recognize the cold weather in Buffalo, but he won’t be used to all the losing.  He should nicely fill in for Posluszny, but Barnett is five years older and not near the same level of athlete at this point, especially coming off an injury.  Barnett may well be the best the Bills linebacking group has to offer, having Shawne Merriman’s career evaporated before our eyes.
 

Terrence McGee, Leodis McKelvin, and Jarius Byrd make up a very good secondary, certainly the most proven unit on the team, but it certainly won’t be enough to make up for the Bills numerous other deficiencies.
 

This team doesn’t have the weapons, experience, or depth to come anywhere close to tasting playoff glory.
 

Biggest Strengths: The defensive tackle tandem and secondary are the Bills’ lone bright spots.
 

Biggest Weaknesses: They lack an offensive line, receiving options, and linebackers.
 

Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in AFC East
 

Eric’s Prediction: 5-11, Fourth in AFC East
 

--from @AdamHocking

NFC West: 2011 Division Preview

St. Louis Rams

Taking a quarterback in the first round of the draft is always a boom or bust prospect, yet the St. Louis Rams appear to have hit the jackpot with last year’s number one overall selection Sam Bradford.  The Rams go as far as Bradford takes them this season, which I predict is straight through the heart of the NFC West and all the way to the playoffs.

Coming off a spectacular rookie campaign in which he accounted for every single Rams pass attempt, completing 60% of them for 3512 yards and 18 touchdowns, Bradford enters his sophomore season having to learn his second NFL playbook under new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.  Based on the results of that system in New England and Denver—Tom Brady’s record breaking 2007, Matt Cassel’s 11-5 2008, Kyle Orton’s 3700-yard-per-season average, Orton even could have surpassed 4000 yards last year had Tim Tebow not gotten in the way—assuming he gets it down, Bradford should flourish.

Joining Bradford on offense is the long-time Ram stalwart and top-10 running back Stephen Jackson.  An absolute workhorse for so many years, the 28-year-old Jackson has yet to show any signs of slowing.

On the outside Bradford made a pretty motley crew look like superstars last year.  Mark Clayton was their big play threat who got injured mid-season and was missed sorely down the stretch.  Danny Amendola looked like Bradford’s Wes Welker.  2009 standout Donnie Avery missed a lot of time last year and he should be back healthy ready to make an impact.  Young bucks Mardy Gilyard and Austin Pettis will look to make their marks, and free agent signee Mike Sims-Walker brings the elements of size and physicality to the rest of this smallish group.

Take this with a grain of salt, but rookie tight end Lance Kendricks has played very well in the preseason.  Kendricks can fill the athletic tight end role, a position Bradford astutely utilized in college throwing to Jermaine Gresham.

Another of the Rams’ offseason acquisitions, former Falcon Harvey Dahl, will join an already astute offensive line that features center Jason Brown, tackles Roger Saffold and Jason Brown, and guard Jacob Bell.  That all should shape up to be quite a unit for a long time.

After the departure of Oshiomogho Atogwe, the defense is left without many stars, though that’s not to say this isn’t a sound group.  Chris Long has improved each year in the league and is one of this defense’s young leaders, the other being Steve Spagnuolo’s on-field counterpart, middle linebacker James Laurinaitis.  Opposite Long, the 33-year-old James Hall racked up 10.5 sacks last year, making a scary pair of defensive ends.  A nice addition at safety, Quintin Mikell adequately replaces Atogwe, but overall the secondary lacks playmakers.

Biggest Strengths: Having Sam Bradford, the best quarterback in the division.

Biggest Weaknesses: The Rams are a young team that lacks experience, and they could use more talent in the secondary.

Eric’s Prediction: 9-7, First in NFC West

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Second in NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

I’m a little higher on Kevin Kolb than Adam is, but both of us agree, the Arizona Cardinals gave up a lot to get him, so he’d better be worth it.  Yet, I also argue that judging Arizona’s quarterback situation last year, there’s no way bringing in Kolb would not be a monumental improvement.

Kolb has not shown a lot in limited action—only seventeen games played and seven games started—but there have been glimpses of that ever-tantalizing “potential.”  Of his seven starts, Kolb posted 100+ passer ratings in three of them.  The other four were a blowout in which he was forced to attempt 51 passes and ended up throwing three interceptions (his first career start), a game he plain got knocked out of, one stinker, and a meaningless Week 17 game in which none of the regulars played.

Although Arizona possesses limited options on offense, the ones that are there are pretty good.  After his spectacular 2009 playoff run, many people believed Larry Fitzgerald to be the best wideout in football.  Even with Kurt Warner no longer chucking bombs last season, Fitzgerald still caught 90 passes for 1137 yards.  Losing Steve Breaston hurts this offense; either Andre Roberts or Early Doucet needs to catch on as the second receiving threat.  Todd Heap brings a tremendous set of hands to the tight end position, but staying healthy is never an easy task for “The Stormin’ Mormon.”

With Tim Hightower now in Washington and second-round draft pick Ryan Williams done for the year, the starting running back slot belongs solely to Beanie Wells.  A rebound after a sub-par sophomore season would greatly help this offense, but that could be a tough assignment considering the Cardinals’ lackluster offensive line.

Arizona runs a hybrid 3-4 defense, and up front Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell create lots of havoc both inside and outside.  The problem for Arizona: I don’t see much else behind them though.  Joey Porter is well past his prime, and though still a good player, so is safety Adrian Wilson.  In drafting Patrick Peterson the Cards got one of the top talents in the draft, but even so, relying on a rookie cornerback is typically a terrifying prospect.

Biggest Strengths: Having a weapon like Larry Fitzgerald makes everyone’s job easier.

Biggest Weaknesses: The most important position on the field is filled by a complete unknown, Kevin Kolb.

Eric’s Prediction: 8-8, Second in NFC West

Adam’s Prediction: 7-9, Third in NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

With an exciting, new head coach, much optimism runs through the hearts of 49er faithful.  Jim Harbaugh was the most sought after head coach this offseason, and he comes to a team with offensive deficiencies that hasn’t had a winning record since 2002, the San Francisco 49ers.

And when I mention “offensive deficiencies,” that conversation begins and ends with Alex Smith.  The 49ers refuse to let former number one overall pick fall into a “bust” label; they keep giving him chances.  There have been moments where Smith takes one’s breath away and makes that number one selection seem worth it, but in equal measure are the moments that just make one sigh, or worse.

If San Francisco struggles this season, it’s all on Smith’s shoulders.  The skill positions are set with as good a supporting cast as there is in football.  Frank Gore is still running strong even after reaching the age of 28 and leading his team in rushing for the past six-straight seasons.  Regarded as the top talent in his draft, Michael Crabtree, though injured and may miss some time, is currently entering his third year in the league, the year where many wide receivers blossom and put up monster numbers.  To complement Crabtree the Niners brought in ex-Jet Braylon Edwards, who might have trouble catching the ball but whose athleticism is a definite plus.  Then over the middle they have the most complete tight end in football, Vernon Davis.  A sick athlete that catches passes and drives guys into the dirt in the blocking game, Davis does it all.

Plus, breathing down Smith's neck is the rookie second-round pick, Colin Kaepernick.  Either Kaepernick will push Smith to get better, or Kaepernick's mere presence will topple Smith's fragile psyche like a house of cards.

Quarterback guru Harbaugh has to be itching to groom Kaepernick—big arm, mobile, yet unpolished—into San Fran's quarterback of the future.  Yet the problem is that he might have to be the quarterback right now.

Joe Staley and Mike Iupati make up one heck of a left side to the offensive line; on the other San Francisco is still looking for the right mix.  Anthony Davis had a terrible rookie season and must rebound.  The 49ers also need to replace center David Baas, who departed via free agency.

After San Francisco’s 8-8 2009 season, the defense really looked like it was going to be great.  Led on the sidelines by Mike Singletary and on the field by Patrick Willis, they were supposed to be a force to be reckoned with.  Yet last year did not fulfill that promise.  Partly because that unit was a little overrated and another part because the offense was so terrible the defense never got off the field, the 2010 defense was a disappointment.

You can’t blame anything on Willis though.  Our choice for the best defensive player in the game, Willis is a terror on the field, but he needs help.  The secondary looks like it could be a good unit with Carlos Rogers coming in to play at one corner and a dynamic pair of safeties in Dashon Goldson and free agent signee Donte Whitner.  Backing them up will be Madieu Williams and Taylor Mays, two guys I'd like to see more out of than what they've shown.  First-round pick Aldon Smith must be good right away if the Niners hope to generate pass rush, but for a raw rookie, that seems like a stretch.

All told, this will be the year of Jim Harbaugh.  Can he change the culture of losing?  Can he change Alex Smith?  Those are the tasks that lay ahead.

Biggest Strengths: There is undeniable talent at the skill positions.

Biggest Weaknesses: Alex Smith.

Eric’s Prediction: 8-8, Third in NFC West

Adam’s Prediction: 8-8, First in NFC West

Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks can be summed up by its quarterback situation: either Charlie Whitehurst or Tarvaris Jackson.

I feel like I should stop there, but I’ll go on.

Outside of Russell Okung and to a lesser extent Robert Gallery, the offensive line is a pretty ugly unit.  Ditto for the running back group.  They have Marshawn Lynch, who wasn’t good enough hold down a starting gig in Buffalo; Leon Washington, who’s best as a kick returner; and scatback/wannabe R&B star Justin Forsett.  Their fullback, Michael Robinson, was a college quarterback, because when I think about what I want from a lead blocker, I think of a quarterback.

Zach Miller at tight end and wide receiver Sidney Rice are really nice targets to bring in, but who can get them the ball?

On defense they have Aaron Curry, who was one of the top talents in his draft but who is still trying to figure out the NFL game, and no one else I care to mention.

Last year’s playoff win be damned, our expectations are extremely low for the Seahawks.  This could be a long year.

Biggest Strengths: Uh… the 12th man?

Biggest Weaknesses: The roster.

Eric’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in NFC West

Adam’s Prediction: 3-13, Fourth in NFC West

--from @jeuneski

NFC South: 2011 Division Preview

Atlanta Falcons

Since the latest division realignment, no team has ever repeated as NFC South Champion.  Yet despite that fact, both Adam and I predict the unprecedented.  We both call for the Atlanta Falcons to repeat and claim a hotly contested NFC South crown.

After finishing an NFC-best 13-3 in 2010, the Falcons did not want to mess with formula too much this offseason.  Atlanta made some headlining moves but not sweeping changes like the formerly 11-5 Eagles.  Chief among them was trading away two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and two fourth-round picks to move up in the draft and select Julio Jones.  Though the Falcons are a talented offensive team, they lack big play threats and gain their yards methodically.  Tales out of camp proclaim Jones as the real deal, perhaps just the player Atlanta needs to put them over the top.

Jones becomes a member football’s most balanced offense.  Last year the Falcons’ leading rusher, Michael Turner, ran for 1371 yards while the leading receiver, Roddy White, accumulated 1389.  The judicious Matt Ryan comes off his best year as a pro and looks to make up for an early playoff exit.

Ryan and his offensive mates were let down last year by an overmatched secondary versus the Packers.  The Falcons did not sign anyone directly to the secondary this offseason, but they did acquire one of the most talented pass rushers available, Ray Edwards.  On the other side of John Abraham, Edwards should continue to be blocked by just one man like he grew accustomed to in Minnesota, playing with Jared Allen and the Williams boys.  Improving the pass rush and pressuring quarterbacks should at least partially ease the burden on the secondary.

Biggest Strengths: The Big Three of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White being joined by Julio Jones.

Biggest Weaknesses: Secondary.  If getting torched by Aaron Rodgers for 366 yards and three touchdowns with an 86.1 completion percentage on your home turf isn’t a wakeup call, I don’t know what is.  You can bet the Saints watched that tape.

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, First in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, First in NFC South

New Orleans Saints

Though their regular season was no disappointment, the defending Super Bowl Champion losing a playoff game to a 7-9 team is an absolute embarrassment.  The New Orleans Saints must rebound with a vengeance to put that loss behind them.

I expect nothing less out of the incomparable Drew Brees.  In the perfect match of scheme to players, no one could better execute Sean Payton’s offense and spread the ball around than Brees.  Brees makes it look easy, throwing to receivers Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, and the young, athletic tight end Jimmy Graham.

With Brees getting all the pub, an extremely underrated piece to the Saints’ 2010 Championship puzzle was their running game.  Last season injuries decimated New Orleans’ running backs, but this year they’ve retooled and are ready to run.  After already making one selection in the first round, New Orleans traded up to make a second first-round pick, with which they took Alabama running back Mark Ingram.  His physicality will be a welcome change of pace from the quick Pierre Thomas.  Also in the backfield, New Orleans traded away Reggie Bush this offseason but replaced with him with the same type of player, signing free agent Darren Sproles.

To better combat the bruising Falcons, the Saints made themselves much tougher up front by bringing in two monster defensive tackles: Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers.  Beastly Sedrick Ellis joins those two to form the best defensive tackle rotation in the NFL.  Life should be easier on the edge for the veterans Will Smith and Alex Brown and the Saints’ first first-round pick, rookie Cameron Jordan.

This season Jonathan Vilma should rack up well over 100 tackles since (A) Ellis, Franklin, and Rogers will adeptly occupy blockers in front of him, and (B) the Saints don’t have any other surefire tacklers in the linebacking corps.

My pick for the Saints’ top defensive player, Malcolm Jenkins—who did not play in the playoff loss to the Seahawks—and Tracy Porter make up one half of a very good secondary.  Between last year’s first-round pick, Patrick Robinson, and a few other veterans, the Saints should be able to field a solid second half.

Biggest Strengths: Drew Brees and his toys.

Biggest Weaknesses: Other than Jonathan Vilma, the linebackers don’t blow you away.

Eric’s Prediction: 10-6, Second in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 12-4, Second in NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A year ago the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a team that beat everyone on their schedule they should have beaten but no one perhaps they shouldn’t have.  It’ll take winning a few of those games in the latter category if they want to take the NFC South Title.  (Their only win against an above-.500 team last year came Week 17 against the Saints, who rested many of their starters.)

The future is bright in Tampa though.  The Buccaneers are a very young team with a rising star quarterback, Josh Freeman.  In just his second year in the league, Freeman posted a 96 passer rating, throwing 25 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions.  He was also the second-leading rusher among NFL quarterbacks with 364 yards on the ground.  At 6’6”, 250 pounds and with top-5 arm strength, the kid is already awesome and has unlimited potential to boot.  Based on Freeman’s smarts, work ethic, and the situation he currently finds himself in, it’s no stretch to believe Freeman completely fulfills his potential this season.

As for weapons at Freeman’s disposal, Mike Williams had a great rookie season last year, and another 2010 rookie, Arrelious Benn, continues to ascend on the opposite side.  Sammie Stroughter and Michael Spurlock solidly round out the receiving corps.  Over the middle, the Bucs have one of the league’s top tight ends in Kellen Winslow Jr., who despite a reputation for being injury-prone, has played in all sixteen games both of his seasons as a Buccaneer.

Davin Joseph, Jeff Faine, and Donald Penn constitute a sound unit along the offensive line.  They protected well and provided ample running room last year for rookie LeGarrette Blount.  If Blount can repeat his success, the Tampa Bay offense can be very good.

In each of the past two years, Tampa Bay spent their first two draft picks on defensive linemen.  Last year they acquired Gerald McCoy and Brian Price and this year nabbed Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers.  McCoy and Price certainly did not set the world on fire in 2010, so let’s hope those two can progress and the Bucs do a little better with their choices of Clayborn and Bowers this season.

Behind that line of high draft picks though, there’s not much discernable talent on defense.  The team’s leading tackler, Barrett Ruud, departed via free agency; cornerback Ronde Barber is 300 years old; and on the other side of Barber is the talented but complete head case Aqib Talib.

Biggest Strengths: Raheem Morris rallying this young team around Josh Freeman.

Biggest Weaknesses: Inexperience across the board and an overall lack of defensive talent.

Eric’s Prediction: 9-7, Third in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 11-5, Third in NFC South

Carolina Panthers

Lights.  CAM-era.  Action.  (Adam said I had to write that.)

By drafting Cam Newton with the first overall pick, the Carolina Panthers certainly look like they are Newton’s team.  Newton has played well enough in the preseason for that to be the case as well.  What the future holds for Jimmy Clausen, Hill 364’s top quarterback prospect from a year ago, remains to be seen.

The Panthers will surround their rookie signal caller with a modest amount of established players.  One cannot argue with the smash and dash of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  It is up to the Panthers to utilize both runners to the best of their abilities.  Carolina is still searching for the heir apparent to Steve Smith, but for now, Steve Smith will have to do.  Athletic tight end Greg Olsen did not fit in Mike Martz’s offense, so Chicago traded him to Carolina, where he will be a valued safety net for a rookie quarterback learning the NFL ropes.

Defensively, Charles Johnson parlayed an 11.5-sack season out from underneath Julius Peppers’ shadow into a big payday.  We’ll see if he produces at the same clip now that he flies a little less under the radar and teams prepare for him.  I happen to think Jon Beason is a bit overrated as he’s by far the best player on a bad defense, but I will admit that on the Panthers he’s a tackling machine that lays the wood.

Biggest Strengths: Carolina’s offensive line featuring Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah is one of the best in football, and they love blowing open holes for the talented DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Biggest Weaknesses: A recognizable defense, they don’t have it.  If the rookie Cam Newton doesn’t start, their other two options are Jimmy Clausen and Derek Anderson, and neither of those guys instill any confidence whatsoever.

Eric’s Prediction: 1-15, Fourth in NFC South

Adam’s Prediction: 4-12, Fourth in NFC South

--from @jeuneski