This is the seventh in a series of eight posts from Adam analyzing the 2010 NFL Draft and what it means for each franchise.
This is a division characterized by a dichotomy between haves and have-nots. The Falcons and Saints have as much talent as any teams in football, at least offensively. The Buccaneers and Panthers are both rebuilding, but the Panthers might be in an even tougher spot because they are still under the impression that they can compete, whereas the reality is that they will soon have to rip this team apart and start from scratch. The Bucs have already acknowledged that this is the case and have begun a full-fledged rebuilding effort. Who knows how the Saints will respond to the role of defending champs? I don't buy that they have been partying too much. What I do buy is that it is incredibly difficult to stay on top in this league year after year. The Saints' offense should be potent once again with Drew Brees leading a diverse and explosive cast of characters, and receiving great protection up front. However, I think the Saints got by last year with a bit of a gimmicky defense led by a very good coordinator in Gregg Williams. I love the Falcons' offense with Matt Ryan—a top 3-5 quarterback in this league for the next ten years, Michael Turner as a true feature back, Roddy White as a Pro Bowl wide out, and Tony Gonzalez, who is old but still as productive as any tight end in the game. The Falcons added the best cornerback on the free agent market in Dunta Robinson to a defense that really needed some help. I think just due to the difficulty of replicating success in this league I give the Falcons the edge to take this division. I also like Michael Turner to have a bit of a bounce back year and for Matt Ryan to reach a truly elite level.
4.19 Hawley, Joe, OG, UNLV
6.2 Schillinger, Shann, S, Montana
To me, the Falcons added two very good defensive players this offseason: Dunta Robinson via free agency and Sean Weatherspoon via the draft. Any time you bring in two guys that will start immediately and have Pro Bowl potential, you have made you team and your unit, in this case defense, exponentially better. I think Matt Ryan in his third year settles in and firmly takes command of the offense and the array of weapons (Turner, Jerious Norwood, White, Gonzalez) that surround him. Combine this with a defense that is young and improving by adding serious talent, and I think we have our division favorite. What this team needs—looking at last season—is simply for the offense to gel and the defense to add talent. I think both of these elements will come together this year for the Falcons and with health, this team should be hosting a playoff game. Mike Johnson is just a very solid offensive guard, and I always like SEC linemen because playing in the SEC is like playing in the minor leagues in baseball. It is a higher level of competition than any other conference in the NCAA and really prepares guys for the NFL level of physicality. Corey Peters is very talented defensive tackle who contributed immediately as a freshman in college, although his production since then was sporadic. If he pans out and Peria Jerry can develop, the Falcons should have a nice tackle tandem to anchor their defensive front.
2.16 Clausen, Jimmy, QB, Notre Dame
3.14 LaFell, Brandon, WR, LSU
3.25 Edwards, Armanti, QB, Appalacian St.
4.26 Norwood, Eric, LB, South Carolina
6.6 Hardy, Greg, DE, Mississippi
6.29 Gettis, David, WR, Baylor
6.33 Pugh, Jordan, DB, Texas A&M
6.35 Pike, Tony, QB, Cincinnati
7.16 Stanford, R.J., DB, Utah
7.42 McClain, Robert, DB, Connecticut
3.14 LaFell, Brandon, WR, LSU
3.25 Edwards, Armanti, QB, Appalacian St.
4.26 Norwood, Eric, LB, South Carolina
6.6 Hardy, Greg, DE, Mississippi
6.29 Gettis, David, WR, Baylor
6.33 Pugh, Jordan, DB, Texas A&M
6.35 Pike, Tony, QB, Cincinnati
7.16 Stanford, R.J., DB, Utah
7.42 McClain, Robert, DB, Connecticut
This is a team in decline even if they don't know it, or worse, refuse to admit it. However, I give them huge ups for getting one of the best players in the draft, Jimmy Clausen, in the mid-second round. Not only was Clausen one of the best players in the draft, but he is a quarterback, a position of inherently great value. There are plenty of Clausen detractors out there, but I like the guy. First, he played in the definition of a "pro style" offense as he was coached by a former great NFL offensive coordinator in Charlie Weis. Second, he was supposed to be great coming out of high school and he did not disappoint. It took him a few years, but last year he was tremendous. Any time a guy gets hyped a ton and lives up to it, I tend to believe, first, that he can handle pressure, and second, where there's smoke there's fire, meaning if he was thought to be great and he played great, then he probably is great. Sure, last year at Notre Dame he did not win a ton of games, but the offense scored a ton of points, and it's not the quarterback's job to stop the opposing team's offense. He did his job, put points on the board, and he did it very well. Here's another thing to consider: Notre Dame was trailing in nearly every game they played last year leading to a high pass attempt total, and yet his touchdown-to-interception ratio was 29-4, just FOUR interceptions all year in a typically pass-heavy, comeback mode offense. In addition, he has a big time arm. So let's review: Clausen played in and is well-versed in an NFL system, had a great pedigree coming to the Irisht, matched his pedigree with terrific production, and has all the physical tools needed to succeed. His one drawback seems to be that people think he's cocky. For me, that is an asset at the most pressure-packed position in sports. He has everything you could ask for; he is smart, talented, productive, and acclimated to the NFL system. He was a steal in the second round and would have been a steal anywhere outside of the first five picks. Brandon LaFell will be a nice, productive receiver, but never a star. He is solidly built, has good hands and good balance, but he will not be a guy that defenses lose sleep over. Armanti Edwards is a flyer pick who will try to find another position in the NFL. My guess is you won't know his name in three years. Eric Norwood could start for this team at linebacker this year. Tony Pike is a good value and could serve as trade bait down the road. Clausen makes this draft, but his value may not be seen instantly because this is a team on the way down. I do think Clausen will start at least some games this year, if not all of them, and will be aided by a very good running back tandem in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Steve Smith is still a Pro Bowler, but is declining, and the defense lost its most talented player in Julius Peppers.
1.32 Robinson, Patrick, CB, Florida State
2.32 Brown, Charles, OT, Southern Cal
3.31 Graham, Jimmy, TE, Miami
4.25 Woods, Al, DT, LSU
5.27 Tennant, Matt, C, Boston College
7.32 Canfield, Sean, QB, Oregon State
2.32 Brown, Charles, OT, Southern Cal
3.31 Graham, Jimmy, TE, Miami
4.25 Woods, Al, DT, LSU
5.27 Tennant, Matt, C, Boston College
7.32 Canfield, Sean, QB, Oregon State
New Orleans did not put together a particularly awe-inspiring draft. Patrick Robinson is a nice athlete but he is one of those wild guesses at an especially difficult to project position like corner. Charles Brown should be a good fit because his strength is pass protection, and he is mobile and athletic. Yet, he slid down draft boards steadily throughout the draft process. The rest of the picks seem like throwaways or flyer picks. This is a team that did not need a huge boost because they are the defending champs, but realize, that for every champ every year the stars align and to repeat takes serious additions and improvements. I don't think the Saints made them. Brees will be great again and the offense will score, but I think the defense will slide and they simply won't be quite as lucky this year. I see this team going 10-6 and scaring the daylights out of whoever they meet in the playoffs, but ultimately unable to repeat last year's results.
1.3 McCoy, Gerald, DT, Oklahoma
2.3 Price, Brian, DT, UCLA
2.7 Benn, Arrelious, WR, Illinois
3.3 Lewis, Myron, CB, Vanderbilt
4.3 Williams, Mike, WR, Syracuse
6.3 Bowden, Brent, P, Virginia Tech
7.3 Grimm, Cody, LB, Virginia Tech
7.10 Watson, Dekoda, LB, Florida State
7.46 Lorig, Erik, DE, Stanford
Scouts love McCoy, and I am not a defensive tackle exert, but I will say that McCoy has much bigger bust potential than Ndamukong Suh. McCoy is vastly talented but he is a guy that relies so much on quickness and athleticism; those things can leave quickly with one serious knee injury easy to come by on the defensive line. He is reasonably strong, but not elite for his position. For a defensive tackle he has a very good nose for the ball and fits well in the Tampa system, but I am not sure that he will be an outright star. Brian Price could have been a top-25 pick so the Bucs get good value with him, and I always like when teams spend multiple picks on one unit (in this case the defensive line) because it almost always ensures you will get at least one guy that pans out and can improve your team, if not two. The best case for the Bucs is that both these guys reach their potential and they have an absolutely tenacious middle of their defense. Arrelious Benn had enough talent to go in the top fifteen picks, but was hampered by playing on a bad college team with a bad passer, namely Juice Williams. The Bucs may not be ready to maximize Benn's talent right away, but overall I like Josh Freeman and think that he will develop into an effective passer. Mike Williams from Syracuse is another guy with first-round potential, and if he can keep his head straight, he could form a very nice, young duo with Benn to complement Kellen Winslow. Myron Lewis is another good value at a place of need for the Bucs, although pretty much every position is a place of need for this team. I like the talent they added in the draft, but we may not see it manifested on the field for a while. This team is raw but has some nice, young talent and just needs a few more good drafts and steady management to get back into contention.
2.3 Price, Brian, DT, UCLA
2.7 Benn, Arrelious, WR, Illinois
3.3 Lewis, Myron, CB, Vanderbilt
4.3 Williams, Mike, WR, Syracuse
6.3 Bowden, Brent, P, Virginia Tech
7.3 Grimm, Cody, LB, Virginia Tech
7.10 Watson, Dekoda, LB, Florida State
7.46 Lorig, Erik, DE, Stanford
Scouts love McCoy, and I am not a defensive tackle exert, but I will say that McCoy has much bigger bust potential than Ndamukong Suh. McCoy is vastly talented but he is a guy that relies so much on quickness and athleticism; those things can leave quickly with one serious knee injury easy to come by on the defensive line. He is reasonably strong, but not elite for his position. For a defensive tackle he has a very good nose for the ball and fits well in the Tampa system, but I am not sure that he will be an outright star. Brian Price could have been a top-25 pick so the Bucs get good value with him, and I always like when teams spend multiple picks on one unit (in this case the defensive line) because it almost always ensures you will get at least one guy that pans out and can improve your team, if not two. The best case for the Bucs is that both these guys reach their potential and they have an absolutely tenacious middle of their defense. Arrelious Benn had enough talent to go in the top fifteen picks, but was hampered by playing on a bad college team with a bad passer, namely Juice Williams. The Bucs may not be ready to maximize Benn's talent right away, but overall I like Josh Freeman and think that he will develop into an effective passer. Mike Williams from Syracuse is another guy with first-round potential, and if he can keep his head straight, he could form a very nice, young duo with Benn to complement Kellen Winslow. Myron Lewis is another good value at a place of need for the Bucs, although pretty much every position is a place of need for this team. I like the talent they added in the draft, but we may not see it manifested on the field for a while. This team is raw but has some nice, young talent and just needs a few more good drafts and steady management to get back into contention.
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