Blue Bloods and Young Guns: The Final Four Prediction

I’ve heard many a pundit, analyst, and common fan complain that this Final Four doesn’t hold the intrigue of past years.           The argument goes that teams like Butler and VCU in the national semi-finals water down the talent and the entertainment value of college basketball’s climax.   I couldn’t disagree more.   People that feel this way are missing the boat, missing the appeal of the tournament.

Those that watch college basketball solely to watch great talent should switch over to the NBA.   The allure of college hoops is the intensity of the game and the energy with which it is played.   The tournament is so magnetic because it centers around young people who have not been jaded by professional sports yet.   These players cry after the losing games because they want to win so badly.  When’s the last time you saw an NBA player break down in tears on the court?

Second, success in the big dance isn’t always about talent.   Teams that win in this tournament do so because of execution and effort.   That’s why Butler is making their second straight Final Four appearance.   It’s also the reason VCU has gone from playing in the First Four to the Final Four.   March Madness is built for basketball purists, those that understand that basketball is the ultimate team game.   Teams that win in the tournament are those that have five guys who work as one and not just a collection of five, talented players.

March Madness is the rare chance to see the beauty of competition in its highest form.  The old cliché that anybody can win on a given night is literally played out every year in the month of March.   In a single game elimination format, effort, execution, emotion, and togetherness have a chance to trump talent at every turn.

Finally, the wonderful thing about this particular Final Four is the myriad story lines surrounding it.   For those that like seeing traditional powers battle, Connecticut and Kentucky satiate that thirst.   Those that like seeing the little guy rise up to the big moment will get their fix with Butler and VCU.  And best of all, we are assured of seeing a David vs. Goliath—at least in terms of tradition—matchup in the championship.   No matter who wins the semi-final games, a mid-major will face a traditional power in the Championship.  And though Kentucky and UConn clearly possess more talent than Butler or VCU, I believe there is no true favorite among the four.  Any of the remaining teams could win it all.

Virginia Commonwealth vs. Butler

Two great head coaches matchup here in VCU’s Shaka Smart and Butler’s Brad Stevens.  Combined, these two men have walked the Earth for 67 years, or, one year less than 68-year-old Jim Calhoun on the other side of the bracket.   Don’t let the youth of these two men fool you; both are ready for this moment.   Stevens has been here before and will know what to expect after making it all the way to the final game last year.  Smart doesn’t have the experience of his counterpart, but he has met every obstacle in this tournament thus far with unabashed bravado and confidence.   VCU plays with an angry intensity that they take from their coach.   Butler plays with a calm, almost mathematical efficiency courtesy of Stevens, who looks and talks more like a college professor than a basketball coach.

VCU might seem like a team that has squeaked by and relied on luck to reach this point in the tournament.   It makes sense that an 11 seed couldn’t possibly make this long of a run without some kind of divine intervention.  Yet when you see who the Rams have beaten and how convincingly they’ve done so, you get an idea of how well this group is playing right now.   They trounced USC by 13, Georgetown by 18, and Purdue by 18, then squeaked by Florida State, and led top seeded Kansas wire-to-wire in an emphatic, ten-point victory.   With as tough a road as conceivably possible, save for one close game against the Seminoles, VCU has been frankly dominant.

Butler has advanced to this point in more typical Cinderella, pulse-pounding fashion.  They beat Old Dominion at the buzzer, escaped Pittsburgh by a single point in the strangest game of the tournament, solidly beat Wisconsin, and then outlasted Florida in overtime.

VCU will have the advantage in the post with versatile and talented forward Jamie Skeen leading the attack.   Skeen will battle Butler forward Matt Howard, who is also a terrific all-around player.   The difference is that Skeen is more athletic and physically imposing.   Both Howard and Skeen can step out the three point line and knock down long range shots, and both can play with their backs to the basket.   Skeen is just bigger, stronger, and more of a force.   Howard has struggled with his shot at times, especially against physical defenders.  Skeen meanwhile thrived against Kansas, who had one of the biggest and best frontcourts in the nation.

Another key matchup will be at point guard; consider VCU’s Joey Rodriguez and his Butler counterpart Shelvin Mack.   Mack is the greater offensive talent and will eventually play in the NBA.   Rodriguez though, has been superb all tournament long and is probably the biggest reason for the Rams’ run.   Rodriguez doesn’t turn the ball over, has excellent shot selection, can get in the lane effectively, and really improves his teammates when he’s on the floor.  Mack can carry his team offensively, and often times has to, especially if Howard struggles.   A score-first guard, Mack can dominate a game for stretches.   I doubt Rodriguez will guard Mack much because he give up 5 inches and 35 pounds in that matchup, but how each point guard runs his team’s offense will be very significant.

Butler can win games without Howard and Mack having huge days because their defense is absolutely stifling.   The Bulldogs have beaten bigger, more physically talented teams by pressuring them into mistakes and forcing long, contested jump shots.   By making the other team take bad shots, Butler has a chance to win the rebounding battle, slow the tempo, and turn the game into a low possession affair.   The Bulldogs excel at slowing games down and maximizing the value of each possession by limiting second chance points, playing tremendous defense, and working patiently for good shots when they have the ball.   Butler nearly beat a much more talented Duke team last year in the Final because they executed to near perfection.   Stevens is so good at getting his teams to play under control and intelligent basketball that they truly can beat anyone.

VCU on the other hand, wants to inject a little chaos into the proceedings.   They’ll mix playing 2-3 zone with pressure man and occasional full-court press.   The Rams will also look to run in transition, and they love to shoot the three off the fast break.   Though Skeen is a great post player, he’s their only real offensive option down low, so VCU relies heavily on the three point shot.

It’s not luck that either team made it this far.   VCU has blown away perennial powerhouses with their style of play.   Butler hasn’t won by big margins, but really they don’t aim to blow teams out.   They want slow, grinding games that they can finish at the end.   If Butler tries to speed the game up, they’ll start losing the rebounding battle and their half-court defense will have less of an impact on the game.   So the true question is, which team will control the pace?

I think ultimately VCU is better equipped to impose their will on Butler than vice-versa.   The Rams have four players that average double figure points; Butler has just two.  VCU’s three main guards—Bradford Burgess, Brandon Rozzell, and Rodriguez—are all experienced, talented, and excellent ball handlers.   That trio is better than Butler’s group, who fall off significantly after Mack.   Skeen will play Howard at least to a draw, and if Howard gets into foul trouble, which he is prone to do, Butler will have a lot of trouble scoring, defending, and rebounding.

There’s a reason VCU has dominated virtually every team they’ve played in the tournament thus far.   It’s because their guards control the game, limit turnovers, and make their teammates much better players.   Butler has just one real play-maker in Mack.   The Rams are going to turn the pace up in this game and expose Butler’s lack of scoring punch.  I can’t believe I’m dumb enough to pick against Brad Stevens’ crew, but VCU has made a believer out of me.

Prediction: VCU 70 — Butler 66

Kentucky vs. Connecticut

Kentucky interestingly is less talented this year than they were last year, but has made it a round further.   Last year’s Wildcats sent five guys to the NBA in the first round yet lost in the Elite 8.   That doesn’t mean this group won’t get paid.  Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones are future lottery picks, and Doron Lamb, Deandre Liggins, and Darius Miller all should play in the league someday too.

The reason this year’s Kentucky group is better equipped than last year’s to win it all is the style of their players and the offensive balance they play with.   Knight is not near the athlete that John Wall is, but he has a much more reliable jump shot, which makes him far more effective in the half court.  Wall had to play in transition to be effective.  Knight doesn’t.   Last year’s Kentucky team principally relied on Demarcus Cousins, Wall, and Patrick Paterson to score.  That was an issue because Wall was offensively limited and Cousins always got into foul trouble.   This year’s Cats have four guys that score in double figures and two more that nearly do.   They are a superior jump shooting team.   Additionally, senior Josh Harrelson and the junior Liggins provide some veteran support for the four freshmen Kentucky plays regularly.

Harrelson has truly been a revelation for Kentucky.  He barely played until this year because he wasn’t in good enough shape to stay on the floor for extended stretches.   This year though he’s logged 29 minutes per game and provides an essential post presence for a team with lots of talented guards and wing players.   Harrelson can score effectively, but his biggest role is to rebound and challenge shots at the rim.   At 6’10” and 275 pounds, he’s always one of the biggest players on the floor and can physically matchup with any opposing big man.

Kentucky power forward Terrence Jones complements Harrelson well inside.   Jones is an extremely talented player with the size and strength to bang with anybody.   Plus, he’s athletic enough to play against small forwards.   Basically, he’s a matchup nightmare.   He can shoot the three or post up, guard multiple positions defensively, and is unselfish with the ball.  The one worry for Kentucky is that Harrelson and Jones are really the only big men that log any minutes at all, so if they get into foul trouble, Kentucky will have to go small.

Jones and Harrelson will have their hands full on the boards, competing with UConn big men Alex Oriakhi and Charles Okwandu.  Oriakhi is a big body who can certainly score, but he isn’t a polished offensive player.  His points mostly come on put-backs, but he has developed a pretty reliable jump hook.   Okwandu is just on the floor to be big, and at 7’0” and 255 pounds, he dwarfs most all college centers.  Okwandu is not going to score, but he’ll changes shots in the lane and will be able to rumble with Harrelson.

Kentucky’s plan on offense will be to spread the Huskies out and let their superior athletes drive the lane and kick out to Knight, Lamb, Miller, and Liggins for three pointers.  The Cats will also give the ball to Jones on pick-and-pop plays where he can either shoot a long range jumper or take his bigger man off the dribble.   Jones is huge in this game because he has the ability to draw UConn’s size away from the rim and open things up for Kentucky’s slashers.

Uconn’s offensive goal is simple: Oriakhi and Okwandu hang out in the post to snatch rebounds and get more shots and possessions for Kemba Walker.   Walker is going to be the best player on the floor, but he doesn’t have as much scoring help as his counterpoint Knight does.    UConn freshman Jeremy Lamb has stepped up hugely in the tournament, providing a really good second scorer in support of Walker.   Lamb is a really good athlete that can shoot, score in transition, and handle the ball.   If Connecticut wants to win, Jeremy Lamb has to score between 15-20 points, Walker has to do his thing, and Oriakhi needs to play like a beast inside.

Ultimately, Kentucky has more ways to win and more ways to score than does UConn.   The Wildcats have six guys that can score 15 points in a given game.   The Huskies have one player who might get 35 points but don’t have enough other scoring options.

Kentucky should be able to battle Connecticut to a draw on the boards.   The Wildcats also have the personnel to create a ton of mismatches on the floor, and John Calipari is an excellent offensive coach.   Kemba has the ability to win a game by himself, but I think against Kentucky he’ll need more help, and he won’t get it.

Prediction: Kentucky 75 — UConn 69

--from Adam