Dwight Howard to LA Makes No Sense

The Big Prize

We love to play the guessing game, and nowhere in the sports world is this tendency to let our imaginations run wild more apparent than in the offseason realm of trades, free agency, and the draft.  In the NBA the center of the speculation frenzy lately has been Orlando Magic superstar Dwight Howard.

With the league’s signature franchise, the Los Angeles Lakers, losing in astonishing fashion to the Dallas Mavericks in the Second Round of the playoffs and Howard’s Magic being unceremoniously dismissed by the Atlanta Hawks, it’s an almost too-good-to-be-true scenario for those of us that love to read the NBA tea leaves.  The thinking goes that Howard must be frustrated—much like LeBron James was in Cleveland—with his lack of a quality supporting cast and is starting to feel his championship window closing.  In concert, the Lakers need to do something drastic after an embarrassing series that made them look old and in need of sweeping changes.

The script surely is in place for the move to happen, but before we roll the Superman-to-LA movie trailer, we must stop and see if the plot makes any sense.  All the Lakers can really offer in exchange for Howard is the talented, but mercurial and oft-injured Andrew Bynum.  In return for their big man, Orlando will want young talent and salary cap space for flexibility in future seasons.  The Lakers really can’t provide any of that, aside from the young talent in Bynum.  Salary-wise Bynum and Howard make basically the same amount of money, so a one-for-one swap of the two players is the only feasible way a trade could go down.  Adding Ron Artest or Lamar Odom doesn’t really sweeten the deal for the Magic, as those are aging players with long and expensive contracts.

It’s a nice thought for the superstar-centric NBA to put Howard in the purple and gold, but from a basketball perspective there are teams that can offer the Magic more of what they want.  The one caveat here is that Howard is not a free agent until the end of the 2012 season, so we could see a very similar scenario play out next year like we did this year with Carmelo Anthony.  Howard will have enough leverage to dictate where he plays next, and if that is LA, then Orlando may have to settle for Bynum.  On the other hand, if Howard isn’t adamant about going to Hollywood and simply wants to play for a contender, there are a couple of possible trade partners that could offer Orlando a sweeter deal than the Lakers’.

Working with the assumption that Howard is willing to play for any team that can legitimately challenge for a ring, let’s take a look at two possible landing spots:

Proposal #1: Thunder trade James Harden, Serge Ibaka, and Kendrick Perkins for Dwight Howard and Brandon Bass

James Harden would almost certainly have to be included for this deal to work.  Only 21 years old, Harden has big time talent and scored 16 points per game once Jeff Green’s departure opened up more playing time.  Harden also makes a bargain $18 million over the next three seasons.  Serge Ibaka would be a great young player for Orlando as well.  Also 21 years old, Ibaka scored 10 points, snatched 8 rebounds, and blocked 2 shots per game this year, and he only makes about $7 million over the next three years, an absolute steal of a contract.  The Thunder then could throw in Kendrick Perkins, who makes $32 million over the next four years, but would be a valuable, tradable asset for the Magic.

This move would give the Thunder a trio in Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Howard to rival any group of stars in the league.  Howard would be the oldest of the three at 26.  Meanwhile the Magic would shed about $9 million, and if they decided to trade Perkins, they could be looking at clearing nearly $17 million dollars in one year.  All the while Orlando could assemble a solid group of players in Harden, Ibaka, Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu.  If Howard leaves, it will be rebuilding time in Orlando, and this would move would be a nice start.  Getting rid of Gilbert Arenas’ 4-year, $80 million contract is another problem entirely, one my brain is not equipped to solve.

Proposal #2: Bulls trade Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, and Omar Asik for Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, Chris Duhon, and Quentin Richardson

First off, the Magic shed about $8 million for next year and get rid of Turkoglu’s long-term contract, which the Bulls could absorb given their cap situation.  Nobody wants Turkoglu for 3 years and $33 million, but if it gets you Dwight Howard, you do it.  Deng and Noah are proven starters in this league, are both young at 26 years old, and are on rich but manageable long-term contracts.  Asik and Gibson are young, talented, dirt cheap players that would help fill the hole Howard’s absence would create.  Throwing Duhon and Richardson in the mix frees up about $17 million dollars over the next three years for Orlando.

In the end Chicago ends up with the two of the three most physically dominant players in the league in Rose and Howard, and they still keep Carlos Boozer.  The Bulls would also keep marksman Kyle Korver and solid role player Ronnie Brewer.  Rose, Brewer, Korver, Boozer, and Howard would be a dynamite starting five.  Among the best three point shooters in the league, Korver would routinely get wide open looks with Rose in the lane and Howard sucking defenses inward.  Boozer would finally fit where he belongs, as a really good third option that has range enough to draw defenses away from Howard.  Finally, Brewer wouldn’t have to score; he’d just have to defend, precisely what he does best.  Meanwhile Orlando would have a solid nucleus of Nelson, JJ Reddick, Deng, Richardson, Gibson, Asik, and Noah.  It’s not spectacular, but it’s a start.  In trading a superstar you never get equal value in return, but what you must get is financial flexibility and some established young talent.

The NBA offseason is a ways away, but these two proposals provide at least some food for thought.  If you were the Magic GM, would you rather get Andrew Bynum and no cap relief, or Harden, Ibaka, Perkins, and more financial options?  Would you prefer Bynum to Deng, Noah, some young talent, and some cap space?  There’s no great answer for Orlando in this situation, and much will be dictated by Howard’s wishes, but if Howard is willing to move somewhere besides LA, there are better trading partners out there for the Magic.

--from @AdamHocking

(image from flickr.com)