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| A Mystery Wrapped in a Riddle |
To keep, or not to keep, that is the question. Specifically, that is the question for the 49ers regarding much maligned quarterback Alex Smith, and it is a question not easily answered.
Smith’s career is, in itself, a canvas for fans, analysts, and coaches alike to debate modern day quarterbacking in the NFL. Is it nature or nurture that creates greatness in a signal caller? Is consistency in coaching the most important thing? What about the formative first years of a passer’s career, are those the most vital? Or, does greatness always shine through; no matter the circumstances will a great player become great no matter where they play?
Smith came in to the league highly touted for his accuracy and off-the-charts intelligence, seemingly the perfect fit for the dysfunctional 49ers. Once he got to San Fran he struggled, but a horrendous rookie year was more than understandable. Coming to a team that was 2-14 the previous season and had been outscored by an average of 14 points in their 14 losses, when Smith tossed just one touchdown and eleven interceptions in his inaugural campaign, Niner Nation stayed patient.
In his second year, a light seemed to switch on inside Smith. He wasn’t yet great, but he had made a quantum leap from Year 1. He compiled an 8% higher completion percentage, threw as many touchdowns as interceptions, and led the 49ers to more wins (7) than they had in their previous two seasons combined.
Another key aspect of Smith’s success in his sophomore campaign was the presence of offensive genius Norv Turner, a man who consistently coaches passing attacks to the top of league leader boards. But alas, Turner was gone the very next season, accepting the Chargers’ head coaching position, and Smith was back to square one. Smith suffered the first of many shoulder injuries in his third year, completed just 48% of his passes, and compiled a paltry 57 passer rating in seven starts.
After missing all of 2008 with an injury, Smith was swept under the rug of the 49ers’ collective consciousness. It was just too painful to think we had missed so badly on the top pick in the draft. But then in 2009, amidst another up-and-down year, Smith re-emerged mid-season to snatch the starting job from Shaun Hill, punctuated by a game against the Houston Texans where he led a furious second half comeback that fell just short, though Smith did throw three touchdowns in a single half.
For the rest of 2009 Smith played solidly if spectacularly, compiling a 5-5 record, a 18/12 touchdown to interception ratio, a 61% completion rate, and his highest passer rating ever. Aha! The 49ers had finally seized something from Smith, had found the talent which made him worthy of the top pick. Best of all, he was now healthy heading into the offseason after finishing off San Francisco’s first non-losing season in six years.
Quarterbacks are hard to come by, and when the former number one overall pick starts to show signs of life, you give him as wide a berth as he needs, and that’s precisely what the 49ers did following Smith’s 2009 resurgent season. San Francisco, for the first time in Smith’s career, did not change offensive coordinators or offensive systems. Smith would have continuity, health, and the confidence of his best year as a pro heading into 2010.
And yet if this past season wasn’t a step backwards for both Smith and the Niners, it was a year spent in neutral. Smith again posted a career-best passer rating, but his inconsistency was maddening, and his rating seemed to result from garbage time touchdowns. Consistently the 49ers would dig themselves into an insurmountable deficit, and Smith would toss a couple worthless touchdowns late. So by simply eyeing the box score, one might think Smith was continuing to improve.
In reality, the case was anything but. Smith’s record as a starter last year was 3-7, and he had to constantly be propped up by teammates who noticed his negative body language and blatant lack of self-confidence on the field. The continuity that was supposed to stabilize the fragile Smith hadn’t, and the 49ers were back to the drawing board with their mercurial quarterback.
Of course, in evaluating Smith’s last two seasons, one must consider the Mike Singletary factor. Coach Singletary, according to many players and coaches around the league, ran the most simplistic offense they had ever seen in their NFL lives. It was a system that perhaps only a handful of passer’s could have succeeded in. Some 49ers reported that other teams were laughing at them on the field, saying that they knew exactly what the Niners were going to do on virtually every play.
Singletary also infamously and very visibly called Smith out on the sidelines throughout last year. Undermining and humiliating your team leader is not the best strategy, but then again, strategy was never Singletary’s strong suit.
Smith may have had consistency under the Singletary regime, but consistently poor coaching without a good system is not a recipe for success.
So now, we are left with far more questions than answers regarding Smith. After struggling through his thrown-into-the-fire rookie season, he improved dramatically in Year 2 with a great offensive mind in Turner as a mentor, after which he lost nearly two full seasons to injury. Following that, Smith put together his best two seasons as a pro, but he still didn’t have the look of a leader or a true NFL quarterback. Yet, was that a product of one of the worst offensive systems in recent NFL memory, or was it Smith’s job to rise above that system and excel anyway?
We don’t know the answers to these questions yet, and if the 2011 season happens, Smith will be faced with yet another system and another coaching staff. Yet hope springs eternal in the Niner breast, perhaps with good reason. New coach Jim Harbaugh played quarterback for fifteen years in the NFL and has a tremendous track record in developing passers. At San Diego University Harbaugh turned Josh Johnson into an All-American quarterback and got him drafted into the NFL. Harbaugh also took over a 1-11 Stanford team—four years later they went 12-1—all the while mentoring Andrew Luck, who many now regard as the best pro quarterback prospect since John Elway.
Smith is only 27 years old, though he seems to have lived a lifetime in this league already. He has time to turn his career around, especially with Harbaugh, who with his long-term contract will provide Smith the consistency and brilliant offensive mind that he’s never had, save for Turner. Perhaps Smith, given this year and moving forward could finally become the player we all thought he was coming out of Utah.
However, there will be a short leash with Smith as 49er fans are fed up with his struggles and their beloved team’s continual losing. Additionally, second round pick Colin Kaepernick will be breathing down Smith’s neck early and often, which will either push Alex to get better, or crumble like a house of cards.
So is Smith a broken man with no confidence left to be a good player in this league? Or, can he rise above his past circumstances? We don’t yet know the answers, and unfortunately for 49ers fans, it may take another two years to find out. If Smith can’t excel in Harbaugh’s system once given adequate time to learn it, only then we will finally, sufficiently be able to say that Alex Smith never had “it” to begin with. But for now, Niner fans are simply stuck in the middle, wondering what could have been and what might be with Alex Smith.
