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ruminations on sports and other complexities of the universe

--from Eric and Adam

July 30, 2010

The "Other" 2010 NFL Predictions

For our 2011 predictions, click here.

In order to further piss off Mike Shanahan, Albert Haynesworth has been losing weight so that he doesn't fit into the prototypical mold of a big, fat, immovable 3-4 defensive lineman.  I predict he makes the Pro Bowl this year as a wide receiver.

I predict the Bears get off to a woeful start and Lovie Smith gets the axe.  Jon Gruden is brought in, making a triumphant return to the coaching ranks.  It is short lived, however, when Gruden impales a referee with the first down marker and proceeds to eat the man’s liver on the sidelines.

Tim Tebow surprises everyone by performing at an MVP-level through the first half of the season, but then leaves the team to do missionary work in Africa.  Kyle Orton is unable to come in because at a charity golf event he tripped over his neck beard and fractured his clavicle.

Ben Roethlisberger briefly redeems his image by volunteering at a local animal shelter.  His popularity nosedives after it is revealed that he has been drugging and sexually assaulting puppies.  Michael Vick is also implicated but asserts that he left the facility before any of the wrongdoing occurred.

Tom Brady leaves the NFL to pursue a modeling career.  However, his new venture ends in tragedy when it is reported that Brady is bulimic and has a cocaine problem.

Mike Singletary finds the winning formula after he cuts the entire San Francisco roster and takes the field himself with just one teammate, Mike Ditka.  As a result, the 49ers bring home the Lombardi Trophy.

Chris Berman and Sean Payton are caught in the Saints’ training room stealing vicodin.  Berman’s defense, “A little 8% codeine never hurt anyone.”

Glenn Dorsey continues to disappoint, to the point that rumors claim he has actually disappeared.  Charlie Weis is implicated in the disappearance as his weight climbs to over 700 pounds.  Dorsey is found half-digested in Weis’ stomach along with a spare tire, a license plate, 3,000 Oreos, and half of Notre Dame’s faculty.

Michael Vick receives a lifetime ban from football after he is caught masterminding a human baby fighting ring.

Andy Reid and Rex Ryan decide to take up a new hobby in the offseason: sumo wrestling.

Randy Moss gets shipwrecked during a three-hour tour of Revis Island, gets lost in a sideways universe, and the only way he can win a Super Bowl is if the Patriots sign Gary Anderson and David Tyree.

The Eagles hand Kevin Kolb the reins while giving Donovan McNabb the boot, the Redskins trade for McNabb and ship Jason Campbell off to Oakland, the Raiders jettison JaMarcus Russell in favor of Campbell, and Russell is arrested for possession of a controlled substance.  I say he's back on the Raiders in no time.

And finally...

Brett Favre makes such strong, lasting connections with the high school receivers he's been throwing to (rather than his actual NFL teammates) that he decides to enroll with them at Hattiesburg, Mississippi's Oak Grove High School instead of coming back to play for the Vikings.  Favre goes on to rule the school; he shoves nerds into lockers, takes the cheerleader to the prom, starts a food fight in the cafeteria, and basically shows Zac Efron what's up.

A vision of the not too distant future

--from Adam and Eric

July 29, 2010

NFL Position Rankings

Quarterback
  1. Peyton Manning (Colts) - The best player in his sport is unfairly criticized for his record in big games.  Football is a sport where 40-50 guys impact the game, and though the QB is the most important of those guys, a single game's outcome is never on his shoulders alone.  Manning is the most accurate, productive, and smartest quarterback in the league.
  2. Aaron Rodgers (Packers) - What he did last year behind a porous offensive line was other worldly.  He has everything one looks for in a passer: great feet, great arm, very smart, pin point accuracy, and a tremendous attitude.  His teammates love him and want to follow him.  The only thing he needs to improve is getting rid of the ball quicker.
  3. Drew Brees (Saints) - Along with Manning, Brees is probably the most accurate passer in the league.  He puts up huge numbers every year and is now a Super Bowl champion.  He is a great leader, gets rid of the ball incredibly quickly, and is never hampered by his diminutive stature.
  4. Tom Brady (Patriots) - It is frightening that this guy could possibly be fourth on this list, but he did struggle a bit last year.  Still, Brady is a three-time champion with ice water in his veins, has a great arm, tremendous accuracy, and is incredibly cerebral.  Yet he may be even more instinctual than he is smart, which is saying something.
  5. Philip Rivers (Chargers) - He has great numbers every year and is incredibly fiery as a competitor.  Tall with a quick release, he hits his receivers in perfect stride and can carry his team to victory.
On The Rise: Matthew Stafford (Lions), Mark Sanchez (Jets), Matt Ryan (Falcons)

Running Back
  1. Adrian Peterson (Vikings) - Yes, he fumbles way too much, but as a pure runner, nobody can do more.  He has the strength of a linebacker, the speed of a corner, and the agility of a kick returner.  He is a workhorse and if he corrals his fumbling problem, he can be an all-time great.
  2. Chris Johnson (Titans) - Speed all day.  He put up 2,000 yards rushing last year and is also a huge threat catching the ball.  He runs tougher than you would expect for a guy known primarily as a burner.  He can stop on a dime and get to full speed quicker than anyone else.
  3. Steven Jackson (Rams) - This man's production on a terrible Rams team is truly impressive.  He is a bruising back without great speed, has terrific hands, and is adept at pass blocking.
  4. Ray Rice (Ravens) - This guy could top this list by the end of this year.  He is a natural born runner, has the smoothest cuts of anyone in the NFL and packs a wallop when he initiates contact.  He is also a tremendous receiver; there is nothing he can't do.
  5. Frank Gore (49ers) - He may be on the way down this year, but as yet has not shown signs of decline.  He has amassed four-straight 1,000 yard rushing seasons despite facing eight- and nine-man fronts consistently playing for San francisco.  He is a natural runner with an incredibly low center of gravity and surprising speed.  He is also a great receiver.
On The Rise: Jonathan Stewart (Panthers), Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers), Jamaal Charles (Chiefs)

Wide Receiver
  1. Andre Johnson (Texans) - No contest.  He is impossible to cover one-on-one and is the gold standard in the NFL.  Great size, speed, hands, and incredible production
  2. Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) - We could see his production drop this year with Kurt Warner's retirement.  He has maybe the best hands in football, amazing body control, and is a great leaper.  He does not feature amazing speed.  His specialty is catching the ball in a crowd of people.
  3. Brandon Marshall (Dolphins) - He has 100 catches in three straight seasons, great size and strength, good speed, and runs very nice routes.  He is coming off hip surgery however.
  4. Reggie Wayne (Colts) - Production, pure and simple, is the book on Wayne.  He is not the biggest or fastest, but he runs perfect routes, has great hands, and has a certain #18 throwing him the ball.
  5. Calvin Johnson (Lions) - He is not consistent enough yet, but he is the most physically gifted player at his position in the entire league.  He is huge (6'5" and 235 pounds) and blazing fast with incredible leaping ability and soft hands.  He and Stafford have as much upside as a tandem as any two players in NFL history.
On The Rise: Michael Crabtree (49ers), Dez Bryant (Cowboys), Sidney Rice/Percy Harvin (Vikings)

Tight End
  1. Dallas Clark (Colts) - This great receiving threat is just as vital as Wayne to the Colts' offense.  He has good speed for the position, great hands, and gets open better than any other tight end.
  2. Vernon Davis (49ers) - It may be a bit early for this ranking given that he has only had one great season.  Still, he may be the most athletically gifted tight end the league has ever seen.  He runs like a speed receiver and and is built like a defensive end.  He is also one of the best blocking tight ends in football, though this trait often goes unnoticed.
  3. Jason Witten (Cowboys) - This great blend of size and speed gets open all game and has great hands.  He is tough as nails and incredibly productive.
  4. Antonio Gates (Chargers) - Not blessed with great speed, this wide body has the softest hands of any tight end in the league.  He uses his body well and is insanely productive.
  5. Jermichael Finley (Packers) - This is a total projection, but he showed what he can do last year, exemplified by a 150-yard receiving performance versus Arizona in the playoffs.  He is right with Davis in terms of athleticism, yet is taller with better hands.  He is a receiver in a pass rusher's body.  He must keep his head straight and improve his blocking.
On The Rise: Brandon Pettigrew (Lions), John Carlson (Seahawks)

Offensive Tackle
  1. Ryan Clady (Broncos) - With great feet, long arms, and tremendous athleticism for his size, he completely nullifies the edge rush from his side and is strong in the run game as well.  He is coming off a pectoral injury.
  2. Joe Thomas (Browns) - Effort, tenacity, and brute strength: that is Joe Thomas.  He also has great feet and is very smart, is equally adept in both the pass and run blocking departments, and is by far the Browns' best player.
  3. Jake Long (Dolphins) - Another young man on the list shows the NFL has a productive future at the tackle position.  Long is prototypical in every way: massive frame, good feet, immense strength, and nasty disposition.
  4. Michael Oher (Ravens) - This is a projection, but he showed in his his rookie season last year that he is already a Pro Bowl-caliber tackle.  Absolutely massive with rare athleticism and elite strength, he could be the best tackle by the end of this year.
  5. Michael Roos (Titans) - Quietly he does his job, which is a great thing for a left tackle.  Steady and immovable at the point of attack, he does everything well.
On The Rise: D'Brickashaw Ferguson (Jets), Jeff Otah (Panthers), Jared Gaither (Ravens)

Offensive Guard
  1. Chris Snee (Giants) - He maybe had a bit of an off-year last year, but he still excelled.  He is nasty and relentless with great ability in the run and passing games.
  2. Jhari Evans (Saints) - It's no wonder Brees never gets touched with this big, strong, quick, and smart blocker anchoring his offensive line.
  3. Ben Grubbs (Ravens) - He is massive and makes the Ravens' offensive line go.  He is better in the run than pass, but is still very good at both.
On The Rise: Mike Iupati (49ers), Davin Joseph (Buccaneers)

Center
  1. Nick Mangold (Jets) - He has great quickness and fires off the snap, is very smart, and is firm at the point of attack.  Though he is undersized, he makes up for it in tenacity.
  2. Ryan Kalil (Panthers) - Flanked by tackles Otah and Jordan Gross, Kalil makes offensive lines one of the league's best.  This Mangold clone is quick, steady, and smart.
  3. Jeff Saturday (Colts) - He probably gets by less on ability and more on intangibles.  He is incredibly smart and relatively quick, always reliable.
On The Rise: Jason Brown (Rams), Alex Mack (Browns)

4-3 Defensive End
  1. Jared Allen (Vikings) - This incredible all-around talent plays the run very well and perhaps the league's best pass rusher.  With tremendous athleticism and relentless effort, he is incredibly productive.
  2. Dwight Freeney (Colts) - This most feared edge rusher might be the fastest player in the league covering 5-10 yards.  His explosion is extraterrestrial and his hands are amazing.  His trademark spin move is devastating, and he is still disruptive against the run.
  3. Mario Williams (Texans) - Anybody want Reggie Bush over this guy now?  He has great size, speed, and a developing repertoire of moves.  He can be a force against the run as well.
  4. Julius Peppers (Bears) - It's all about "want to" with Peppers.  He has as much ability as anybody but often lacked desire after years of contract disputes in Carolina.  When motivated, he may be the single most dominant defensive force in the league.
  5. Robert Mathis (Colts) - This other Colts end is not quite Freeney but not far off either.  With tremendous speed, he always bring top effort.
On The Rise: Calais Campbell (Cardinals), Derrick Morgan (Titans)

3 -4 Defensive End
  1. Haloti Ngata (Ravens) - There is no more impressive blend of size and athleticism in the league.  At 6'4" and 340 pounds he manhandles blockers and can even be seen dropping into coverage.  He does it all and is the most important player on the always imposing Raven defense.
  2. Richard Seymour (Raiders) - Plenty will tell you Seymour is on the decline, but when he is healthy, he is an absolute nightmare.  He is incredibly quick for his size and is immovable at the point of attack.
  3. Justin Smith (49ers) - This is one of every offensive lineman's least favorite opponents.  With bull-like strength he holds his position against the toughest run blockers, and with a great motor he gets a lot of sacks for a 3-4 end.
On The Rise: Tyson Jackson (Chiefs)

Nose Tackle/3 Techniques
  1. Albert Haynesworth (Redskins) - This combination of incredible size, strength, and miraculous athleticism can dominate every snap if he wants to.  The problem is, for Mike Shanahan, he might not want to.
  2. Jay Ratliff (Cowboys) - Although he does not look like the typical, enormous nose tackle, tremendous athleticism makes him one of the best.
  3. Pat Williams (Vikings) - Here is the archetypal image of a nose tackle: immense, immovable, and always occupies blockers.
  4. Vince Wilfork (Patriots) - See Pat Williams, then add some athleticism.
  5. Aubrayo Franklin (49ers) - Largely unknown until last year, he is humongous with a low center of gravity and is largely responsible for Patrick Willis' ability to flow freely.
On The Rise: Terrance Cody (Ravens)

Defensive Tackle/5 Techniques
  1. Kevin Williams (Vikings) - He could easily play nose tackle; he can eat up two blockers and you cannot move him.  However, he is also a force rushing the passer making him the most complete defensive lineman in all of football.
  2. Darnell Dockett (Cardinals) - This guy shifts seamlessly from end to tackle and back again, is hugely talented, highly motivated, and incredibly strong and athletic.
  3. Tommie Harris (Bears) - It's all about health for Harris.  If he can stay on the field and he is right, he will be in the quarterback's face multiple times every game.
  4. Ndamukong Suh (Lions) - That's right, I did it.  I think this guy is ready right now to be an elite player.  With great size, strength, and smarts, he reminds me of Bryant Young.
  5. Broderick Bunkley (Eagles) - This relatively productive player has a load of talent although it does not always jump off the television screen.
On The Rise: Gerald McCoy/Brian Price (Buccaneers)

Outside Linebacker
  1. DeMarcus Ware (Cowboys) - This absolute freak pass rusher has great hands, speed, and strength.  He can cover, but why waste his pass rushing talent?
  2. Clay Matthews Jr. (Packers) - Unlike a former USC teammate, Matthews had a stellar rookie campaign without any chemical help.  He showed throughout the year that he can do everything on the football field and is just one of the guys who makes play after play.  A great career lies ahead.
  3. James Harrison (Steelers) - This pure playmaker is tremendous in all phases yet especially adept at rushing the passer.
  4. Elvis Dumervil (Broncos) - With seventeen sacks a year ago, this pure pass rusher terrorized offenses with his great athleticism.
  5. Aaron Curry (Seahawks) - A projection, but there are no limits to this man's game.  He reminds me of Julian Peterson early in his career.  He can lock down a tight end, stuff the run, or chase down a quarterback.
On The Rise: Brian Cushing (Texans), Keith Rivers (Bengals), Brian Orakpo (Redskins)

Middle Linebacker
  1. Patrick Willis (49ers) - He might be the best defensive player in football period.  He has unlimited range, great strength to shed blocks and punish ball carriers, has a nose for the football, and is a lockdown tackler.  He can even cover wide receivers on pass routes.  He has led the league in tackles two of his first three years.
  2. Jon Beason (Panthers) - With great range, tackling ability, and instincts, Beason has been hugely productive in his first couple years.
  3. Ray Lewis (Ravens) - Call me old fashioned, but there is still nobody more feared on a football field.  This great tackler's range is diminishing, but he is still an All-Pro.
  4. DeMeco Ryans (Texans) - A great nose for the football defines this man.  Lacking great size and speed, he has incredible short-range quickness.
  5. Karlos Dansby (Dolphins) - Dansby is a great athlete at the position who seems to improve every year he plays.
On The Rise: Rey Maualuga (Bengals), Jerod Mayo (Patriots), Curtis Lofton (Falcons)

Corner Back
  1. Darelle Revis (Jets) - Just watch and you will see.  It is amazing he had any interceptions last year with the way teams typically avoid throwing his direction.  He absolutely eliminated Chad Ochocinco, Terrell Owens, Andre Johnson, and Randy Moss in one-on-one matchups last year.  He is strong, never out of position, has great balance, and is just plain better than anybody else.
  2. Nnamdi Asomugha (Raiders) - A wonderful player with rare size and great strength for a corner is very fast and always gets good position.
  3. Charles Woodson (Packers) - He hasn't slipped yet, although with his age it must be coming soon.  Incredibly smart and balanced, he has great hands and was born to make plays.
  4. Terrance Newman (Cowboys) - He won't tackle anybody, but he possesses elite speed and can turn and cut with anyone he's matched up with.
  5. Asante Samuel (Eagles) - He thrives in zone coverage where he can float and make plays, but is sound in man-to-man as well.
On The Rise: Leon Hall (Bengals), Mike Jenkins (Cowboys), Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Cardinals)

Safety
  1. Troy Polamalu (Steelers) - When healthy, he's among the absolute best.  He tackles like a linebacker, covers like a corner, and makes every play on the field.
  2. Ed Reed (Ravens) - Nobody plays the ball in the air better, and Reed is just as much the heart of his defense as Ray Lewis is.
  3. Nick Collins (Packers) - This bullet does not have the softest hands but still gets plenty of picks and is a force when he hits.
  4. Louis Delmas (Lions) - This guy reminds me of Bob Sanders.  Hopefully injuries do not hit Delmas like they have Sanders.  He plays the pass very well and hits a ton.
  5. Dashon Goldson (49ers) - I have no idea why he didn't get talked about more last year.  This freight train hitter with great speed compiled 90+ tackles, four interceptions, three forced fumbles, and two sacks last year.
On The Rise: Earl Thomas (Seahawks), Eric Berry (Chiefs), Jairus Byrd (Bills)

--from Adam 

(Images found at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15)

July 28, 2010

Eric's 2010 NFL Predictions

AFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC West
Jets 12-4Ravens 12-4Colts 11-5Chargers 10-6
Patriots 12-4Bengals 11-5Titans 9-7Broncos 8-8
Dolphins 10-6Steelers 7-9Texans 7-9Raiders 6-10
Bills 2-14Browns 3-13Jaguars 5-11Chiefs 4-12
NFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC West
Cowboys 11-5Packers 12-4Saints 12-449ers 11-5
Giants 9-7Vikings 9-7Falcons 10-6Cardinals 7-9
Eagles 7-9Lions 8-8Panthers 6-10Seahawks 6-10
Redskins 7-9Bears 5-11Buccaneers 4-12Rams 2-14


AFC Wild Card Games: Bengals @ Colts - Colts 31-17; Patriots @ Chargers - Patriots 27-21

NFC Wild Card Games: Vikings @ Cowboys - Cowboys 38-3; Falcons @ 49ers - Falcons 20-13

AFC Divisional Round: Colts @ Ravens - Colts 20-16; Patriots @ Jets - Jets 26-21

NFC Divisional Round: Cowboys @ Packers - Packers 34-21; Falcons @ Saints - Saints 30-24

AFC Championship: Colts @ Jets - Colts 21-17

NFC Championship: Packers @ Saints - Packers 28-27

Super Bowl: Packers 24 - Colts 20

Champions: Green Bay Packers


(Note: When I was making my game-by-game predictions, picking every winner for every week of the season, I missed one win.  So one team, I'm not sure which, has mistakenly been credited with an extra loss.)

Let the games begin!

Internet Watch #2

NFL Films President Steve Sabol offers some great insights into the history of the NFL.

Leaders lead, Brett.

From the New Orleans Hornets blog at sbnation.com, At the Hive, Brian Ball surveys the trade market for a disgruntled star like Chris Paul.

The Hawk gets into the Hall.

And the worst sporstcast ever...

July 27, 2010

Division Breakdown: NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

This team is loaded with talent.  Tony Romo commands a load of skill players including Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten.  The defense is talented with Jay Ratliff manning the nose and DeMarcus Ware terrorizing quaretbacks off the edge.  Mike Jenkins and Terrance Newman are as good a corner duo as there is.  Wade Phillips will likely be on the hot seat again all year and that might increase pressure on this team who must perform and make a deep playoff run this year.  The offensive line is old and worrisome.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have a ton of young talent and I think Kevin Kolb is ready to be a good starter.  He will be aided by young studs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, not to mention second-year running back LeSean McCoy.  The offensive line is talented but inconsistent.  Brandon Graham fits the Eagles' system perfectly and should really help their pass rush.  Trent Cole is a Pro Bowl defensive end and Brodrick Bunkley and Mike Patterson are a nice, young defensive tackle duo.  Ernie Sims joins the fold, improving a decent linebacking core.  Asante Samuel is still a top corner; unfortunately safety Marlin Jackson is out for the year.  This team has a load of talent but may be a year away from winning the division.

New York Giants

The Giants' offensive and defensive lines were absolutely dominant two years ago, but have struggled recently.  Eli Manning has plateaued as a good-but-not-great QB.  Steve Smith and Mario Manningham are nice, young receiving threats.  Running backs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have to be more productive than they were a year ago.  First-round pick Jason Pierre-Paul may not be ready to contribute this year.  Chris Canty, Justin Tuck, and Mathias Kiwanuka need to be consistent.  Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle are a talented safety duo.  Despite a handful of talented players, no one overwhelms and overall this is a team on the decline.

Washington Redskins


Donovan McNabb makes the Redskins a better team, but not as much as people think.  He is aging and will be playing behind a poor offensive line without great offensive weapons.  Albert Haynesworth is going to be a problem.  If he plays motivated, a big 'if,' a $100 million 'if,' he is a huge force that complements pass rusher Andre Carter.  Brian Orakpo is a beast off the edge and London Fletcher is still productive.  LaRon Landry is a hammer at safety and Carlos Rogers and Deangelo Hall are talented but inconsistent corners.  McNabb will have his work cut out for him leading this team of oversized personalities.  The talent is there but I think this team will struggle with all the changes.


Final Standings

Dallas Cowboys 11-5
Philadelphia Eagles 9-7
New York Giants 9-7
Washington Redskins 7-9

Division Breakdown: NFC North

Green Bay Packers

The Packers should be potent offensively with Aaron Rodgers dishing to Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Ryan Grant, and receiving improved protection.  Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton held up nicely last year but both appear to be on their last legs.  If they can make it through this year and Bryan Bulaga, first-round tackle, can slide in to play guard, we could see a much improved unit.  The defense should be stout with a nice front of BJ Raji, Ryan Pickett, and Cullen Jenkins holding up blockers for Clay Matthews and Nick Barnett at linebacker.  Corner is a concern with aging Al Harris coming of an ACL tear and Charles Woodson not getting any younger.  Nick Collins and Atari Bigby bring the pain at safety and make a lot of plays.  With health and some luck this team could win the Super Bowl.

Minnesota Vikings

Brett Favre is coming back and joins a very talented offense, yet he will not be as productive after taking another year of hits, and teams watching the blueprint provided by the Saints in the NFC title game: hit Brett hard.   Adrian Peterson is a super star, but this team will miss do-everything back Chester Taylor.  Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin are ultra talented, both deep threats, and should continue to improve.  Visanthe Shiancoe is a nice tight end.  The offensive line is aging and played inconsistently down the stretch last year, a bad sign when you start a 41-year-old quarterback.  The defense should be dominant again with Jared Allen and the Williams boys forming the best defensive line in football.  EJ Henderson is declining and injury prone but Chad Greenway is a nice young linebacker.  Antoine Winfield is on a major decline and Cedric Griffin is just so-so in coverage.  Draftee Chris Cook will help this secondary somewhat but may not be ready yet.  If Favre is great again this team can win the whole deal, but I say we see a slip in production.

Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler had an enormously disappointing 2009 but I think that was more of an aberration.  He still will take snaps from a shaky line and does not seem to have a go-to receiver.  Look for Devin Hester to go back to a more slot receiving/kick returning role.  Mike Martz comes in to run the offense but is notorious for minimizing the tight end, which would be a mistake given that Greg Olsen is the Bears' most talented receiving threat.  Hopefully Martz won't abandon the run either as Matt Forte and Chester Taylor create a formidable duo.  Defensively, Julius Peppers can be an absolute force when motivated, and if he plays at the top of his game he can open things up for super talented but oft-injured defensive tackle Tommie Harris.  Brian Urlacher returns from a wrist injury but may actually have benefited from a year away from the football grind and could come back better than ever.  Lance Briggs is good but slightly overrated.  The secondary is patchwork.  This team has some talented players but too many holes to overcome.
 
Detroit Lions

The Lions finally have promise coming into a season, but don't expect a playoff run just yet.  I think Matthew Stafford will eventually be a better player than Mark Sanchez; the kid has huge ability and a competitive fire.  Calvin Johnson is as talented and athletic as any player in football.  Although they had to trade Ernie Sims to get him, Tony Scheffler is a very nice receiving tight end and will complement emerging second year player Brandon Pettigrew.  Kevin Smith is solid at running back but nothing special.  Jahvid Best could be the playmaker this offense needs; he is lightning quick and can help enormously in the return game.  The offensive line still needs fixing, but this young crop of playmakers could eventually form one of the best offenses in football.  I love what the Lions have done defensively, save for trading Ernie Sims.  Ndamukong Suh is going to be a great player, and the Lions surrounded him with veteran help up front signing Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams. This defensive line has the potential to be very good this year.  The linebacking corps is suspect outside of Julian Peterson, as is the secondary.  However, second year safety Louis Delmas could be a Pro Bowler this year.  This is a team on the rise; with one more good draft they could be playoff bound.


Final Standings

Green Bay Packers 11-5
Minnesota Vikings 11-5
Chicago Bears 7-9
Detroit Lions 6-10

Division Breakdown: NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

I love the Falcons' offensive personnel.  Matt Ryan will be a Pro Bowler this year, and with the cast of Michael Turner, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez, this offense could be truly dynamic.  I also love the Falcons signing Dunta Robinson, a top corner in his prime.  First round linebacker Sean Witherspoon is a dynamic athlete that should start from day one.  Defensively, the Falcons need second year man Peria Jerry to step up, and they need to get something from former first rounder Jamaal Anderson.  John Abraham is a great pass rusher but must stay healthy.  Curtis Lofton is totally solid at middle linebacker.  Outside of Dunta Robinson, the secondary is worrisome, but if they can generate pass rush everything should work out.  This is a team with a very high ceiling, and I like them to take the division.

New Orleans Saints

Repeating as champs, or much less making the playoffs consecutively is incredibly difficult in the NFL.  Drew Brees and his arsenal of Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, and Devery Henderson are as explosive as it gets, and the offensive line is better than most.  I think the defense slid by a bit last year, getting by on taking chances and employing an overly aggressive scheme.  This year I think teams will catch up with Gregg Williams and the Saints will be in more shootouts than they would like.  Sedrick Ellis, Jonathan Vilma, and Tracy Porter give the Saints talent at each level of the defense, but there is not enough quality or depth for this team to reach the Super Bowl again.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers get major props from me for getting Jimmy Clausen in the second round.  The guy can play, his touchdown-to-interception ratio on a pass-happy Notre Dame team was 29-4 last year.  He has the arm, the pedigree, and has played in an NFL system.  I think he will start some games this year.  If he does he will be aided by the best running back duo in football, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  Steve Smith just broke his arm, and is getting older, but should be ready for the season and is still a dynamic wideout.  The offensive line is big and talented.  Ryan Kalil is one of the league's better centers and ditto for Jeff Otah and Jordan Gross at the tackle positions.  Still, the offense will struggle with its inexperienced quarterbacks without great receiving weapons.  The defense has lost a lot of talent with the defection of Julius Peppers and the season-ending injury to linebacker Thomas Davis.  Jon Beason is a stud at linebacker but he is the only real playmaker on the front seven.  The corners are solid with Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall.  This is a team that needs some more playmakers and to replenish the defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I like Josh Freeman and think if nothing else he will be a solid QB in this league.  Cadillac Williams had a nice bounce back last year but is incredibly injury prone.  Ernest Graham is a serviceable backup.  This team has almost nothing at receiver after Antonio Bryant left for the Bengals.  Kellen Winslow is their best talent but is injury prone and not the athlete he once was.  The offensive line is solid with underrated Donald Penn at left tackle, Jeff Faine playing well at center, and Davin Joseph as one of the league's best guards.  The defense got a boost with the arrival of top picks, defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Brian Price.  Both are top talents, although they will have their growing pains adjusting to the NFL game.  The linebacking core is subpar.  The secondary is so-so but young corner Aqib Talib is very good.  This is a team that is a long ways from contention.


Final Standings

Atlanta Falcons 11-5
New Orleans Saints 10-6
Carolina Panthers 6-10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12

Division Breakdown: NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

Kurt Warner is no longer in the Niners' way of winning the division.  With the Cardinals in transition, the Niners just needed to steadily improve on last year's 8-8 record, and that's exactly what they did.  By drafting two offensive linemen in the first round they have turned last year's biggest weakness into a potential strength.  Alex Smith had his best season a year ago and for the first time in his career will have the same coordinator in consecutive years.  Also, he will have the most talent at his disposal that he has ever had.  Michael Crabtree is going to be a star receiver perhaps as early as this year, Vernon Davis is unguardable at tight end, and Frank Gore is a top-8 NFL running back that can do everything.  The defense was excellent last year.  Abrayo Franklin and Justin Smith are incredibly stout up front.  Patrick Willis is football's best defensive player, and he is flanked by an athletic trio of Manny Lawson, Ahmad Brooks, and Parys Haralson.  Dashon Goldson quietly produced like a Pro Bowler at safety last year and will be joined by free athlete Taylor Mays.  If Mays can produce up to his potential, this can be a top-5 defense.
 
Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks will be refreshed by Pete Carroll's optimism, but still have a ton of holes on both sides of the ball.  Matt Hasselbeck is on his last legs and Justin Forsett and Leon Washington do not make a good enough running back tandem.  On the outside, TJ Houshmandzadeh will be joined by impressive rookie Golden Tate, and John Carlson is a nice option over the middle as a tight end.  Russell Okung will start from day one at left tackle but the rest of the offensive line is suspect.  This defense that has struggled to play consistently as an eleven man unit will benefit from rookie playmaker Earl Thomas.
 
Arizona Cardinals

Losing Warner, Anquan Boldin, Antrel Rolle, and Karlos Dansby will not be easily overcome.  Matt Leinart is not the answer at QB nor is Derek Anderson.  Beanie Wells and Larry Fitzgerald are great talents, but the offensive line and QB situation will make it tough for them to excel.  Dan Williams was a steal as the twenty-sixth pick in the first round and he joins Pro Bowler Darnell Dockett on the defensive line.  Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is an excellent athlete and Kerry Rhodes plays solidly at safety.  This is a team in transition and it will show.

St. Louis Rams 

The Rams are starting to climb out of a deep, dark hole, but they are still at the beginning stages of rebuilding.  First overall pick Sam Bradford will get killed if he starts right away, although the offensive line is surprisingly talented with good center Jason Brown, last year's second overall pick Jason Smith, and solid guard Jacob Bell.  Donnie Avery needs help at receiver.  Steven Jackson takes a backseat to nobody at the running back position.  Chris Long and James Laurinaitis are really the only promising players on this defense; the rest is patchwork.  It will be another long year for Rams fans, but talent is starting to accumulate.


Final Standings

49ers 9-7
Seahawks 6-10
Cardinals 6-10
Rams 3-13

July 26, 2010

Division Breakdown: AFC East

New England Patriots

Many pundits are looking for the Jets to breakout and win the Super Bowl, but I foresee them struggling to integrate all their additions and Mark Sanchez is still only a second-year guy.  Tom Brady will be back and is now two years removed from a bad knee injury.  Brady's numbers were great last year, but he just did not look the same as in years past.  It will be running back-by-committee once again in New England, which may be a problem, but I think Randy Moss bounces back, Julian Edleman will play well until Wes Welker comes back, and Aaron Hernandez will make a big splash as a rookie tight end.  The defense has been rebuilding through the draft the past two years, this year adding Devin McCourty (first round corner) and Jermaine Cunningham (linebacker from Florida) in round two.  The offensive line is good but aging.  If the Patriots first- and second-year players can make an impact, this team should rest atop the division.

New York Jets

How many times have we seen teams win the offseason and then struggle during the real season?  The Jets have as much talent as any team in football, and on paper, adding Ladainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, Brodney Pool, and Jason Taylor looks like a tremendous haul.  Integrating this many veterans though, many of whom were cast off for poor attitudes, could easily backfire on Rex Ryan, a coach that tends to place his foot in his mouth daily.  Still, the defense should be tenacious with a wonderful front seven boasting Kris Jenkins, Shaun Ellis, Bart Scott, David Harris, and Calvin Pace.  Behind that dominant unit is perhaps an even more impressive secondary with Darrelle Revis (best corner in football), Cromartie, and first-round pick Kyle Wilson.  Pool and Jim Leonhard are solid at safety.  Sanchez looks promising but his QB rating was only 62 last year, and Braylon Edwards has a career-long case of the drops.  Replacing the released Alan Faneca will be difficult and Holmes will miss the first four games this year.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins made a huge splash by landing Brandon Marshall, one of the most talented and productive wideouts in the game.  Ronnie Brown is a very good back but must stay healthy.  Ricky Williams runs hard but is aging.  Chad Henne showed impressive flashes last year, but faded a bit down the stretch.  I think with Brown, Marshall, and Anthony Fasano, Henne can take that next step toward stardom.  The offensive line is solid with Jake Long making the Pro Bowl every year of his career.  The defense is a bit of a no-name unit.  Karlos Dansby joins the fold and forms a nice tandem with Channing Crowder.  Vontae Davis and Sean Smith both started last year as rookie corners and should be much more comfortable moving into this year.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo is in big trouble again this year with a patchwork offensive line and no definitive answer at quarterback.  Trent Edwards has not been consistent.  CJ Spiller is a huge talent but was probably about tenth on the Bills list of needs.  Lee Evans is still a nice deep threat, and Fred Jackson is a talented and bruising running back.  Terence McGee and Leodis McKelvin are a very nice corner duo, and Paul Posluzny is a good, young linebacker.  Outside of those three guys, this defense has many holes.  This team will be picking among the top-5 next year.


Final Standings

New England Patriots 11-5
New York Jets 10-6
Miami Dolphins 8-8
Buffalo Bills 5-11

Division Breakdown: AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

The ascending Ravens offense has finally addressed its Achilles' heel, the receiving department, but the improvements could be for naught as their vaunted defense ages.  Ray Rice is a superstar that can carry an offense while Joe Flacco is steady and improving with a great downfield arm.  Anquan Boldin gives them a legitimate go-to receiver and Dennis Pitta will make a receiving impact as a rookie.  The offensive line is talented and huge.  The defense should again be very good with Haloti Ngata, one of the best defensive linemen in football.  Terrell Suggs and Sergio Kindle should form a great pass rushing duo, and Ray Lewis is still a nightmare when he gets his hands on you.  Ed Reed considered retiring due to injuries this offseason, but he is back and is still a top-5 safety in this league.  Cornerback is a concern.  This team is hugely talented and needs to stay healthy to threaten for a Super Bowl bid.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have transformed their offense by finally adding some receiving weapons.  The standout is draftee and super athlete Jermaine Gresham at tight end.  He opens the middle of the field and creates opportunities for new addition Antonio Bryant as well, who, when healthy, can be a Pro Bowl-level player.  They also add Jordan Shipley who can thrive out of the slot immediately.  With that array of weapons and second-year tackle Andre Smith improving, Carson Palmer should have his best season in years, not to mention the emergence of Cedric Benson as a bell cow back.  The defense should continue ascending.   Talented but mercurial Carlos Dunlap joins a talented and young linebacking corps with Rey Maualuga and Keith Rivers.  Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall may be the best corner tandem in the league.  If their rookie class can contribute immediately, this team can win the division.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is going to be in disarray this season after Ben Roethlisberger's antics and subsquent four- to six-game suspension, trading away their best receiver Santonio Holmes, and the season-ending injury to tackle Willie Colon.  The defense should still be tough with Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, James Farrior, and Casey Hampton forming an impressive core.  Rashard Mendenhall looks like a breakout candidate, and Maurkice Pouncey will help on the offensive line.  Still, there are not enough playmakers on this team and the locker room could be toxic.

Cleveland Browns

You just might mistake them for Swiss cheese; the Browns have as many holes as any team in football.  Jake Delhomme is completely done and yet will be the starting quarterback for this team.  They have almost no playmaking ability on offense, although Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, and Alex Mack make up a nice group along the offensive line.  Joe Haden will be a very good corner in time but the rest of the defense is suspect, and you never know what Shaun Rogers will bring.  This team could be the worst in football.  Colt McCoy may start eventually but will not be ready this year.


Final Standings

Baltimore Ravens 12-4
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-9
Cleveland Browns 4-12

Division Breakdown: AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

I see no reason why the Colts should not be back in the Super Bowl again this year.  The offense is much the same with Peyton Manning as the ring leader and Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie as acts in the offense's circus.  The offensive line is sturdy but aging.  First round pick Jerry Hughes ramps up an already frenetic pass rush and second round pick Pat Angerer bolsters their linebacking corps.  If Bob Sanders can somehow stay healthy, he forms the league's best safety duo with Antoine Bethea, and makes the Colts the league favorite.

Houston Texans

The Texans have been dealing with the pressure of being everyone's breakout team for years.  Perhaps they have grown into the role however and are ready to make the franchise's first playoff appearance.  Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are one of the very best quarterback-wide receiver connections in all of football.  The offensive line still has questions.  Rookie Ben Tate should nicely complement Steve Slaton.  The defensive front seven is extremely talented with Mario Williams, Amobi Okoye, Brian Cushing, and DeMeco Ryans.  Kareem Jackson helps replace Dunta Robinson and should be solid even as a rookie corner.  I think ultimately the offensive line and defensive secondary will keep this team from challenging the Colts.

Tennessee Titans

Handicapping the Titans is a difficult enterprise because of the two halves of their 2009 season.  Which team will they be this year?  Chris Johnson is as dominant an offensive player as there is in the league.  The offensive line is solid up front, but I wonder if Vince Young can keep defenses honest throwing the ball.  Kenny Britt is going to be a very good receiver.  The defense is mostly solid and added rookie Derrick Morgan who can play the run and rush the passer.  The secondary had three Pro Bowlers two years ago in Cortland Finnegan, Michael Griffin, and Chris Hope.  They should again be very good.  Ultimately, this team does not throw the ball well enough to make a playoff push.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville's draft strategy leaves something to be desired.  The Jaguars notoriously reached for Tyson Aluala with their first pick, and nabbed another defensive tackle, D'Anthony Smith, with their next selection.  Defensive tackles usually take a while to adjust to the pro game, and this team has holes everywhere else.  David Garrard is so-so at quarterback and really has nobody to throw to except super back Maurice Jones-Drew.  If he can come back from an ACL injury sustained last November, Aaron Kampman greatly benefits this defense.  He will move back to a 4-3 end where he can be dominant after struggling through the Packers' attempt to change him into a 3-4 outside linebacker.  Other than him this defense has a ton of holes and should be about as effective as the offense, which is to say not very.


Final Standings

Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Houston Texans 10-6
Tennessee Titans 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12

Division Breakdown: AFC West

San Diego Chargers

San Diego once again will be much more talented than any other team in their division, and if Ryan Mathews proves worthy of his first-round selection, the Chargers are a Super Bowl threat.  Marcus McNeil and Vincent Jackson are threatening to hold out, but once the pigskin starts flying I assume they will be back in the fold.  The defense is a concern, but in this division, their explosive offense should be enough.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos puzzled many by selecting Tim Tebow and Demaryius Thomas when they could have nabbed Jimmy Clausen and Dez Bryant at both spots.  I did not like their choices, but if they are confident in their guys, then they made the right picks.  Their offensive line is one of the best in football and can help steady a team that is rocky at many other positions.  Kyle Orton should be the starter and is solid but nothing more.  Brandon Marshall will be sorely missed and the Broncos defense overachieved last year to the tune of just an 8-8 record.  Josh McDaniels has work to do.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders will actually resemble a football team this year with Jason Campbell representing a huge upgrade over JaMarcus Russell.  Darren McFadden and Michael Bush is a running back tandem with potential, but thus far has lacked in production.  Rolando McClain will be able to start and make an impact immediately at linebacker.  They have a promising front seven with Richard Seymour still playing at a high level, the addition of pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley, and of course McClain.  Nnamdi Asomugha is still a top-3 corner in football.  This team has holes on the offensive line and will struggle to score points.

Kansas City Chiefs

Although the Chiefs will be looking up at the rest of their division this season, they put together an excellent draft, taking players that can contribute instantly to a team in dire need of reinforcements.  Matt Cassel has to play better than he did last year.  He should have some help with draftees Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas providing serious juice in the return game and McCluster adding explosion as a slot receiver as well.  Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey need to live up to expectations.  If they can, this defense could really have something with the addition of Eric Berry.  The offensive line is a concern and Dwayne Bowe needs help making plays.


Final Standings

San Diego Chargers 11-5
Denver Broncos 7-9
Oakland Raiders 7-9
Kansas City Chiefs 5-11

July 25, 2010

Adam's 2010 NFL Predictions

AFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC West
Patriots 11-5Ravens 12-4Colts 13-3Chargers 11-5
Jets 10-6Bengals 9-7Texans 10-6Broncos 7-9
Dolphins 8-8Steelers 7-9Titans 8-8Raiders 7-9
Bills 5-11Browns 4-12Jaguars 4-12Chiefs 5-11
NFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC West
Cowboys 11-5Packers 11-5Falcons 11-549ers 9-7
Eagles 9-7Vikings 11-5Saints 10-6Seahawks 6-10
Giants 9-7Bears 7-9Panthers 6-10Cardinals 6-10
Redskins 7-9Lions 6-10Buccaneers 4-12Rams 3-13


AFC Wild Card Games: Jets@Chargers - Jets 24-20; Texans@Patriots - Patriots 21-14

NFC Wild Card Games: Vikings@49ers - Vikings 20-16; Saints@Falcons - Falcons 34-31

AFC Divisional Round: Patriots@Ravens - Ravens 24-16; Jets@Colts - Colts 27-17

NFC Divisional Round: Falcons@Cowboys - Cowboys 27-20; Vikings@Packers - Packers 20-17

AFC Championship: Ravens@Colts - Colts win 27-20

NFC Championship: Packers@Cowboys - Cowboys win 31-28

Super Bowl: Cowboys over Colts 28-27


MVP - Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
Offensive Player of the Year - Ray Rice (Ravens)
Defensive Player of the Year - Patrick Willis (49ers)
Offensive Rookie of the Year - Ryan Mathews (Chargers)
Defensive Rookie of the Year - Eric Berry (Chiefs)

Rodgers is the only quarterback to ever throw for 4,000 yards in his first two seasons as a starter.  He has a huge arm, great intelligence, and is one of the most mobile signal callers in today's game.  Jermichael Finley is an emerging star at tight end, the combination of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver is a top-5 receiving tandem, and Ryan Grant is a lock for 1,000 yards on the ground.  Additionally, the maligned offensive line should be much improved with the addition of first round pick Brian Bulaga.  Patrick Willis is the best linebacker in football with unmatched range, athleticism, and strength.  He has led the league in tackles two of his first three years and should only be improving heading into his fourth year.  He is excellent in coverage as well.  Ray Rice should have even more room to operate with the addition of Anquan Boldin and rookie tight end Dennis Pitta.  He is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and has not accumulated a ton of career carries so he should not be worn down.  Ryan Mathews will get the bulk of the carries in a potent Charger offense.  Running back is usually the easiest position for a rookie to contribute in right away.  Eric Berry is viewed as the surest prospect in the draft and should start from day one in Kansas City.