NFL Power Poll #4

1. Green Bay Packers (7-0)

The defending champs get the bye at a perfect time.

If it's possible to quietly be the best team in football, even as last year's Super Bowl winner, that's what the Packers are.  I think it's because there is so much mediocrity around the league that the Packers are a given as the best team.  Hopefully over the bye week the defense had a little powwow, because if that side of the ball can get back to last year's level of play, we will hear 16-0 talk pretty soon.

2. San Francisco 49ers (6-1)

Being sixth in rushing offense and first in rushing defense is a pretty good formula for winning football.  The passing game is far from spectacular, but it's efficient and used when necessary.  Alex Smith is having his best year ever simply because he is not turning the ball over, but if this team really wants to talk about winning it all, he has to be able to create more plays down the field.  If he steps up, the weapons are there.

Frank Gore has been a work horse, plowing for over 125 yards in 4-straight games.

Offensively, the Niners are getting creative.  They threw first down passes to left tackle Joe Staley and nose guard Isaac Sopoaga in last week's game.  Defensively, the linebacking group of Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks, and Parys Haralson might be the league's best.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

Winners of four straight games, the defending AFC champs are rolling.  They got a huge win last week against New England, and the defense is again playing at an elite level as Ben Roethlisberger has one of the better stretches of his career.  Still, I think this team is vulnerable for speedy teams like the Packers that can spread them out.

4. Detroit Lions (6-2)

I think the Lions were trying to prove in one game that Tim Tebow isn't fit for this league.  He's been sacked 14 times in two games.  The Lions, meanwhile, are on pace for twelve wins this season, which would be an incredible feat for the long suffering franchise.  Matthew Stafford has 19 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions this year and is developing into a Pro Bowl player in his third season.

5. Buffalo Bills (5-2)

This team has lost twice this year by a combined six points.  They play as a unit, can score on anybody, and have very good balance on offense.  Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven to be more than a game manager this year, and the defense, while still a work in progress, at least creates turnovers.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)

It's time to pay my respects to a team I've mostly ignored thus far.  The defense is truly one of the best in the league, and Andy Dalton has already figured out how to play like a game-managing veteran seven games into his career.  AJ Green is having a monster rookie year as well with 33 catches, 516 yards, and 5 touchdowns.  Dalton-to-Green could be a great combination for years to come.

Side Note: Who would have thought it conceivable to start the year that the Bengals, Lions, 49ers, and Bills could be considered by anybody to be elite NFL teams?  

7. New England Patriots (5-2)

Some of the intimidation factor is wearing off of these Patriots.  It's actually been a while since this team won a Super Bowl, and the Bill Belichick-led defense no longer scares any one.  Tom Brady has to be perfect if this team wants to win another title.

8. Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

This is a Super Bowl team if Joe Flacco plays better.  It's that simple.  They have the weapons, the coaching, and the defense.  All they need is for their signal caller to put a nice bow around all of it and this team can beat anyone.  Whether or not Flacco is able to do that is yet to be seen, but I think he can turn things around.

9. New York Giants (5-2)

They are dinged up at running back with Ahmad Bradshaw nursing a broken foot and Brandon Jacobs perhaps just breaking down.  On the flip side, Eli Manning has been great this year, notching a 102 passer rating.  If they can reassemble their ground attack, this team can challenge anybody because of a tremendous pass rush.

10. Houston Texans (5-3)

Andre Johnson still might not be back, but as long as Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Ben Tate, and an improved defense (fifth against the pass, sixth against the run) keep rolling, this is the team to beat in the AFC South.

11. New Orleans Saints (5-3)

That was a really bad loss at St. Louis, just a game the Saints gave away.  The formula used to be for the defense to cause turnovers and let Drew Brees be perfect.  Brees is still great, but the last couple years he has thrown too many interceptions.  He's on pace to throw 20 this year.

12. Atlanta Falcons (4-3) 

The Falcons had a bye week to get some bugs worked out and now get the Colts at home.  So basically, two straight bye weeks.  They can get on a little roll here and perhaps start to look like the team we thought would challenge for the Super Bowl.

--from @AdamHocking

Week 8 Game Notes

Giants over Dolphins

• It looked for so long that the Dolphins were going to get their first win of the season—even Reggie Bush was having a good day—but it wasn’t meant to be.
• This is the last sure win for Big Blue as the Giants’ schedule gets insanely difficult in the second half.  They travel to New England Sunday and have a road game against San Francisco the next week, then games against the Eagles, Saints, Packers, Redskins, Jets, and two against the Cowboys still remain.
• Prediction (you decide if it’s bold or not): the Giants will not win the NFC East.

Ravens over Cardinals

• Another upset was brewing in this one, but again the favored team came back to win.
• This marks the fifth time a team has come back from twenty or more points down to win, already an NFL record.

Rams over Saints

• We saw Adam’s fears come to fruition in this Saints contest.  Drew Brees threw multiple interceptions, and the defense could not contain Steven Jackson in the least.
• The bigger problem for New Orleans this game was its protection.  The Rams sacked Brees six times on the day and hurried countless other throws.

Texans over Jaguars

• Win or lose, I find nothing the Jaguars do even remotely interesting.
• Texans win.

Vikings over Panthers

• If Olindo Mare hadn’t missed a 31-yard, game-tying field goal with 26 seconds left, we may be looking at a completely different result.  Instead the Vikings win by 3 in a game with some electric plays by Adrian Peterson and both rookie quarterbacks, Cam Newton and Christian Ponder.
• Peterson joins Jim Brown, Emmitt Smith, and LaDanian Tomlinson as the only running backs to rush for at least 750 yards and 8 touchdowns in each of their first five seasons.

Titans over Colts

• A team that previously had a streak of nine-straight 10-win seasons, the Colts have to win a game some time, right?

Lions over Broncos

• The Lions love the AFC West.  After hanging 48 points on the Chiefs Week 2, Detroit put up 45 on Denver.

Bills over Redskins

• Boy, we love John Beck.
• So do the Bills.  They love sacking him that is.  Buffalo totaled nine sacks on the day, two and a half coming from third overall pick Marcell Dareus.

Steelers over Patriots

• If New England strolls through their relatively easy second half and makes the playoffs, don’t expect them to make a lot of noise.  Their pass defense will not hold up at all, as Ben Roethlisberger made explicit on Sunday.

49ers over Browns

• Running game and defense; 49ers win.

Bengals over Seahawks

• I’m tellin’ ya, I love the Andy Dalton-to-AJ Green combo.
• For as much as the NFL star machine cranks out Cam Newton and Tim Tebow coverage, I’m a little disappointed Dalton hasn’t been getting as much publicity.  He’s an adequate NFL starter, and that’s a tremendous accomplishment for a rookie quarterback.  Sam Bradford was adequate last year, and we never heard the end of him.
• The Cincinnati Bengals win their fourth in a row.  (That’s weird to type.)

Eagles over Cowboys

• There’s the dream team.  After a panic-ridden 1-4 start, Philadelphia’s won two in a row and is right back on track.
• Aside from divisional contests at New York and at Dallas, the Eagles’ toughest remaining games (Bears, Patriots, Jets) all take place in Philadelphia.  They also have Arizona, Seattle, and Miami still on the docket.
• For as much doom and gloom there was after Week 5, the Eagles are probably still the favorite to win the division.

Chiefs over Chargers

• It took an extra period, but the surging Chiefs have now won four in a row.

--from @jeuneski

Week 8 Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Dolphins at Giants	Giants	Giants
Cardinals at Ravens	Ravens	Ravens
Saints at Rams	Saints	Saints
Jaguars at Texans	Texans	Texans
Vikings at Panthers	Panthers	Panthers
Colts at Titans	Titans	Titans
Lions at Broncos	Lions	Lions
Redskins at Bills (in Toronto)	Bills	Bills
Patriots at Steelers	Steelers	Patriots
Browns at 49ers	49ers	49ers
Bengals at Seahawks	Bengals	Bengals
Cowboys at Eagles	Eagles	Eagles
Chargers at Chiefs	Chargers	Chargers
	Adam	Eric
Week 7 Record	7-6	10-3
Season Standings	68-35	70-33

Bye Weeks: Bears, Buccaneers, Falcons, Jets, Packers, Raiders

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
I'm tempted to pick Indy here for a couple of reasons: first, they have to win some time, and second, it's a divisional game against the up-and-down Titans.  Ultimately though, playing at home and very much alive in the AFC South, I'll take the Titans.  They're the better team, and they need this game.

Prediction: Titans 27 – Colts 17

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams
With Sam Bradford out, the Rams are flatout terrible.  Also, home-field advantage won't matter much for St. Louis as the Saints thrive in a dome environment.  The Rams don't have the horses to keep up with Drew Brees' stable of weapons.

Prediction: Saints 38 – Rams 16

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants
The Dolphins are a mess with a coach that all the players know is on the way out the door.  They have no quarterback, a dearth of weapons on offense, and very little reason to fight at 0-6.  You play to win the game as Herm Edwards would say, but I wonder just how hard the Dolphins are playing right now.  The Giants are an inconsistent team, but they just have so much more going for them than Miami.

Prediction: Giants 23 – Dolphins 13

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Both teams that I think are a little better than their records indicate, and both start rookie quarterbacks.  I think the Vikings have a great shot to win this game, but Cam Newton is playing better than Christian Ponder at this very moment, and I hate the Vikings.  Since it's such a tossup, I'll go with what I want to happen.

Prediction: Panthers 28 – Vikings 23

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens
The Cards’ offensive line is going to get pummeled by the Ravens’ defense, and I look for Joe Flacco to bounce back and prove some naysayers wrong.  The Ravens “good” is very good, and their “bad” is really bad.  I expect them to be on their game after an embarrassing loss to Jacksonville.

Prediction: Ravens 24 – Cardinals 10

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Andre Johnson won’t be back, but if he was, the Texans would feature one of the top offenses in the league.  The combination of Ben Tate and Arian Foster on the ground, combined with the aerial duo of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, is tough to match.  It's sad that Mario Williams had to suffer a season ending injury because the Texans, when healthy, are loaded talent-wise.  At least they're on the mend offensively.

Prediction: Texans 27 – Jaguars 20

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (in Toronto)
The Redskins’ offense was bad to begin with, and now with Tim Hightower gone for the year and Santana Moss gone for at least five weeks, they should be downright abysmal.  I really like the Washington defense, but they’ll have to hold opponents to 13 points to give the offense a chance.  That ain't happening against Buffalo.

Prediction: Bills 21 – Redskins 6

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos
This is an important game for the Lions to prove they are a real contender, not because the Broncos are a good team, but because it's vital that the Lions show they have the fortitude to bounce back from a two-game skid and win on the road.  I think Tim Tebow only has a limited amount a magic, and otherwise he's just, well, limited.  He's not a great passer, and in this league you can't just run around and improvise on every play.  The Lions’ defensive line should feast on Tebow, who got sacked all day long against Miami, and as I always say, there's no coverage for Calvin Johnson.  Give me the Motor City Kitties.

Prediction: Lions: 31 – Broncos 20

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pats have done well against Pittsburgh in recent times, but Ben Roethlisberger is red hot right now and should carve up a suspect Patriots defense.  Whereas when the Patriots have the ball, the Steelers have the defense to match.  Pittsburgh does struggle when teams spread them out—like the Packers in the Super Bowl or the Patriots over the past few years—but I think the biggest weakness in this game is the New England defense, and that will be the difference.

Prediction:  Steelers 27 – Patriots 24

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers

It will be interesting to see how the 49ers handle being big home favorites for the first time in a long time.  Coming off a bye week, they've had plenty of time for everyone to tell them just how great they are, and that is dangerous for any team.  Fortunately, I think Jim Harbaugh has this team really focused on “one day at a time.”  Both defenses in this game are good, but the Niners’ has been dominant, and the Browns don't have skill players comparable to Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Braylon Edwards, who should be back this week.  I also believe the triumvirate of kicker David Akers, punter Andy Lee, and return man Ted Ginn is the best such trio in the league.  They often go unnoticed.  I think the Niners get a few more explosive plays and will ride the home field and their defense to a tough win.  I'll take my boys in a meat grinder game.

Prediction: 49ers 20 – Browns 13

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
The Bengal defense is legit, and Andy Dalton will be the best quarterback on the field Sunday.  I think that will be enough, even on the road, to take out the sea-chickens.

Prediction: Bengals 17 – Seahawks 13

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
If you can figure out the NFC East, let me know.  The Eagles haven't put four good quarters together since they played the Rams in the opening game of the season, and the Cowboys haven't exactly been the model of consistency either.  I'll take Philly simply because they are at home, and I think this division is going to be a dog-fight all year long, which is something Michael Vick should be very comfortable with.  BA-ZING...I had to make a dumb joke, sorry.

Prediction: Eagles 31 – Cowboys 28

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have really recovered after a horrible start, and the Chargers just haven't played up to their talent level.  But I'm stubborn.  The real Philip Rivers will show up.  I say it happens this week, and the Chiefs won't be able to keep up.

Prediction: Chargers: 34 – Chiefs 23