Conference Championships Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Ravens at Patriots	Ravens	Patriots
Giants at 49ers	49ers	49ers
	Adam	Eric
Divisional Round Record	4-0	2-2
Divisional Round Points	10	2
Total Points	164	182
Playoff Record	5-3	4-4
Combined Record (Regular Season and Playoffs)	163-101	184-80

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

I pick the 49ers because they possess more balance as a team than the Giants do across the board. They are better on special teams, defense, and running the ball. The only advantage New York has is Eli Manning. That same rationale is why I believe the Ravens will win in chilly Foxborough. The Patriots have Tom Brady, Wes Welker, the best tight end I may have ever seen in Rob Gronkowski, plus a tremendous all around threat in Aaron Hernandez. But beyond that?

Fact: New England hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record all season. It’s true. The only teams with winning records they faced, the Steelers and the Giants, they lost to.

What shouldn’t be lost is that Pittsburgh, the Giants, and the Ravens all can get pressure rushing just four men, which allows them to throw a lot of defensive backs on the field and hurry Brady without giving him obvious spots to throw the ball. Terrell Suggs is one of the best pure pass rushers in football, and the Patriots will have to double team him if they want to stop him from wreaking havoc. Doubling Suggs will force the Patriots to single block somebody and delay the release of a tight end or running back, a disadvantage to New England’s timing-based offense.

I expect the Pats to try to establish some semblance of a running game, and I expect that to be thoroughly rejected by the likes of Haloti Ngata, Corey Redding, Terrence Cody, Ray Lewis, and Suggs and company. All of this is a way of saying I think the Ravens can make New England one-dimensional.

Tom Brady can certainly win a game by putting a team on his back, but I don’t think he can do it against Baltimore. If Suggs can pin his ears back, then Ngata will almost certainly get push up the middle, the type of pressure that most disrupts passers, and Brady will be forced off rhythm. If Brady has to throw often and force some throws, expect ballhawks Ed Reed and Ladarius Webb to pick him off once or twice. They may get burned gambling once or twice as well, but Brady scores so often that if you can force a turnover, the risk is worth the reward.

Nobody on the planet earth can physically match Gronkowski, but Baltimore has the bruising linebackers in Suggs and Lewis to at least put a lick on him at the line of scrimmage or coming across the middle.

Baltimore has a statistically elite defense to match New England’s great offense. Conversely, Baltimore’s middle-of-the-road offense will match up with a Patriot defense that is statistically one of the worst units of all-time. The Patriots were seventeenth defending the run and allowed the 2nd-most passing yards ever. Joe Flacco is not a great quarterback, but with Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, Ray Rice, and some solid options at tight end, he should be quite effective against the soft Pats pass defense.

More than Flacco throwing the ball, I expect Baltimore to employ the tag team of Ray Rice and his fullback Vonta Leach often. I think Rice needs a minimum of 25 carries in this game. That will keep Brady off the field, set Flacco up for success, and help the Ravens’ defense stay fresh.

I know the Patriots offense is sexy, and the fact that they haven’t won a Super Bowl in a while makes them an alluring pick. But the fact is that Baltimore has been in the postseason six of the last seven years and hasn’t made it to the big game either. The Ravens are just as hungry, they know how to beat New England, and they know how to win in the playoffs. Football and crab cakes, that’s what Maryland does! Give me the Ravens as the more balanced attack to go on the road and, bounce New England to set up (gasp) The Harbaugh Bowl!

Prediction: Ravens 23 – Patriots 20

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

When I first started to hear all the talking heads, publications, and media types essentially guarantee that the Giants were going to roll into San Francisco, beat the 49ers, and advance to the Super Bowl, I was upset at the lack of respect for the Niners, but then I remembered that the media is a “flavor-of-the-day” type of business. Last week the Saints were the hottest team in the history of the world, and this week it’s the Giants. I also noticed that more than thinking the Giants would win, the sports media seems to be focused on the prospect of a Giants-Patriots Super Bowl rematch, which I think influences the thinking to a large degree.

People tend to look at the stat sheet from the Saints-Niners Divisional Playoff game and see that Drew Brees threw for 462 yards and think the San Fran’s defense broke down. What they don’t realize is that Brees also threw the ball 63 times because the Niners knocked Pierre Thomas out of the game and shut down a good Saints rushing attack. As a team the Saints ran the ball 14 times for 37 yards, a 2.6 per rush average. Thomas was the seventh running back the 49ers have knocked out of the game in their seventeen contests this season. Of course Brees is bound to put up video game yardage when he has to throw all day long.

People also look at the 32 points San Fran allowed as another sign of defensive breakdown, but really aside from one play where Darren Sproles broke loose, the 49ers played one of the better defensive games I’ve seen all year. The late touchdown to Jimmy Graham was kind of a fluky play where Patrick Willis and the safety covering fell down and misjudged the ball. It just as easily could have been Brees’ third interception.

The other thing people fail to realize is that the Giants beat the Packers because they are perfectly constructed to beat a team like Green Bay. New York can get tremendous pressure with their front four, allowing seven men to drop back into coverage, and all the Packers want to do is throw the ball. Eli Manning is one of the few players that can match Aaron Rodgers in an aerial show, and the Giants have great run after catch receivers in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. That, combined with the Packers’ lack of pass rush and horrendous tackling, united to make the Giants a glass slipper fit to beat the Packers.

When they face the 49ers, the Giants won’t be putting four defensive ends on the field all that often because San Francisco has no desire to throw the ball 40-50 times. The Niners would rather line up and use their 8th-ranked rushing attack to wear out the Giants 19th-ranked rush defense, and in the process beat up on the vaunted pass rushers of New York.

It should also be noted that while the Giants do get good pressure, when they don’t, it’s big trouble. New York ranks twenty-ninth in the league in passing yardage allowed per game.

The 49ers will also make the Giants one-dimensional, which is exactly what they did to the Saints and what they’ve done all season. Over the course of the year the 49ers allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, per attempt, and the least rushing touchdowns of any team in the entire league. And unlike New Orleans, the Giants do not possess five bona fide weapons (Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson) in the passing game to distract the 49ers from playing the run. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are very good players, but they are the only truly imposing threats in the passing game. Thus, instead of chasing All-Pro tight end Graham and the do-everything Sproles around all day, the 49ers linebackers (especially NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis) can key on stuffing the run, reading Manning, and freelancing more to make plays. Carlos Rogers has earned every bit of his trip to the Pro Bowl this year, and he will lock down on either Cruz or Nicks while the other wideout will likely see quite a bit of double coverage.

The Giants are healthier than they were when San Francisco beat them earlier in the year, but the 49ers blew that game open only to have the Giants rally late in fourth quarter to make the score closer than it should have been. Like now, the Giants were a “hot team” coming into San Francisco at 6-2. In that game the 49ers did what they always do: played superior special teams, limited Brandon Jacobs to 55 yards on 18 carries, and won the turnover battle, intercepting Manning twice. Cruz and Nicks had a combined 8 catches for 125 yards.

Although the Giants certainly can get pressure with their front four, they don’t blitz that often, and that’s what Alex Smith likes most. He’s not good against added pass rushers, but one of his better throwing performances on the year came against New York because they only rushed four guys, which opened passing lanes and gave Smith the ability to read the coverage.

The Giants’ linebackers and secondary are not particularly talented, and Vernon Davis is a complete mismatch for them. I look for the Niners to pound the ball to set up the play-action pass, max protect Smith, and let him make throws when they are presented.

The 49ers were inexperienced in the playoffs heading in, but that game against the Saints was about as big a stage with as much pressure as any team could possibly face, and the 49ers answered the bell. They are ready for the next step, no longer with any questions about what playoff football is all about. With the best defense and special teams in the league, I expect the 49er offense to again do enough to beat the “red hot” Giants at what should be a rocking Candlestick Park. The Niners win and advance to the Super Bowl, and I wet my pants.

Prediction: 49ers 26 – Giants 17

Divisional Round Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Broncos at Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Texans at Ravens	Ravens	Ravens
Giants at Packers	Giants	Packers
Saints at 49ers	49ers	Saints
	Adam	Eric
Wild Card Round Record	1-3	2-2
Wild Card Round Points	-4	0
Total Points	154	180
Combined Record (Regular season and playoffs)	159-101	182-78

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

First two quick asides:  As a huge fan of the 49ers, there is bound to be bias in my predictions going forward, but at 13-3 they have proven to be an excellent football team.  Moreover, I’m really just excited to be talking about San Francisco in the context of a divisional round playoff game.  It’s been a long time, and it feels fine.  Second quick thought: I like the symmetry of the divisional round this year.  In a season where passers like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford took statistics to new heights, we also have the likes of TJ Yates, Alex Smith, Tim Tebow, and Joe Flacco still alive.  In fact, we have an equal divide of flamethrowers (Manning, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady) and so-called “game managers” (Smith, Flacco, Yates, and Tebow).  Just some food for thought, but I digress.  Now, my predictions!

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

We all saw the Tebow Magic last weekend against Pittsburgh, and I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see that kind of performance coming.  But I also steadfastly believe that Tim Tebow is not a starting-caliber passer in the NFL, and the reason for his success against Pittsburgh was the extent to which the Steelers stacked the box and dared Tebow to throw.

Even though New England has a horrible defense statistically, I think Bill Belichick will devise a way to allow Denver a lot of yards between the 20s and then stiffen in the red zone.

Basically for me it comes down to who is going to be better in the red zone, Denver or New England.  Both teams are going to move the ball.  Denver will pile up yards because the Patriot defense is atrocious, and New England will because their offense is a machine.

I think playing at home and with the pressure of two-straight postseason losses weighing on Brady and Belichick, the Patriots will respond with a great game.  I think Brady might be in for a historically good performance, though to Denver’s credit, their defense has done a very good job of harassing opposing quarterbacks.

New England has to feel great having Brady against the remaining AFC field of passers: Tebow, TJ Yates, and Joe Flacco.

I’d like to pick the upset here because I need to catch Eric, but that would be a throwaway pick in my opinion.

Prediction: Patriots 34 – Broncos 26

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Stealing the thought from my compatriot Eric, I don’t think there is that wide of a gap between TJ Yates and Joe Flacco.  I’d rather have Flacco going into this game, but I think Yates can be adequate with a really good rushing attack surrounding him and an increasingly healthy Andre Johnson.

I also think the front seven of the Texans which includes studs like JJ Watt, Connor Barwin, and Brian Cushing might be a younger and nearly as good version of the Ravens’ front seven.  All that is a way of saying I think this game will be close, but ultimately I have to ride with the Ravens, who are 8-0 at home this year.

Both New England and Baltimore can smell a path to the Super Bowl and could not have asked for better draws in the divisional round.

The Texans have been great running the ball all year, but the Ravens stop the run as well as just about anyone thanks to Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, and Terrell Suggs, who is underrated as a run-stopper.  I think ultimately too much pressure will be put on TJ Yates to make plays and manufacture points, and while I really like the Texans personnel, I’m not sure Yates is equipped to handle a tenacious Baltimore team on the road.

I don’t love Flacco, but he’s been in big time games before.   I think it’s a close defensive struggle, but Baltimore will stack the box and keep Ed Reed focused over the top on Andre Johnson to prevent any big plays down the field.  I look for Suggs to have a couple of sacks, perhaps force a fumble, and for Reed to bait young Yates into an interception as well.  Winning the turnover battle will allow Baltimore to play their bruising style of football, and let the offense rest on the broad shoulders of Vonta Leach and Ray Rice.

I like the Texans, and if Matt Schaub were in this game I would pick them, but ultimately I’m going with the more seasoned team at home.

Prediction: Baltimore 20 – Texans 13

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

I really don’t like this matchup for the Packers.  They can’t run the ball, and their pass defense is statistically the worst in the NFL.  That’s not good when the Giants come to town and their primary strengths are rushing the passer and Eli Manning hitting receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.

The Giants know the Packers are going to throw all day long, and they can bully the Packers’ offensive line with just four pass rushers.   Marshall Newhouse, Evan Dietrich-Smith, and TJ Lang are going to be overmatched on Sunday, and while Josh Sitton and Scott Wells are very good offensive linemen, that’s just two of five adequate starters.

Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Matthias Kiwanuka, and Osi Umenyiora are all healthy and firing on all cylinders.  When the Giants rush those four and drop seven defenders into coverage, I’m not sure how the Packers block that front, or at least give Aaron Rodgers enough time to find receivers that will be covered down the field.

Considering the Packers’ inability to run the ball, the Giants will pin their ears back and ramp up the pass rush even more.  In addition, the Packers were near the bottom of the league in sacks allowed (41 on the year).

Defensively the Packers have the personnel and talent (Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews, Tramon Williams, BJ Raji) to make a lot of plays, but the defense has been anything but solid this year and has missed many tackles, especially concerning with the run after catch ability of both Cruz and Nicks.

The Packers have been the best team all season long, but sometimes a team gets hot in the playoffs, and I just think it’s the Giants’ time.  In New York’s last three games they’ve outscored the Jets, Cowboys, and Falcons a combined 84-30.  Aaron Rodgers has covered up a lot of weaknesses for Green Bay this year, but Manning can match Rodgers close enough to expose those weaknesses.

Prediction: Giants 31 – Packers 27

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

Oh my what a matchup!  These teams are a combined 27-6 on the year, and the Saints boast perhaps the league’s most powerful offense, while the 49ers likely have the best defense in the game.

The 49ers want to control the ball and keep Drew Brees off the field as much as possible, while the Saints want to push tempo, spread the field, but also feature a strong, three-headed rushing attack.

When the Saints have the ball, I figure the 49ers to work from the ground up, meaning stop the run first to limit Brees’ effectiveness in the play-action game.  Even though the Saints run the ball well, the 49ers are virtually impossible to run against, limiting opponents to a league-best 77 yards-per-game.  I think the Saints may have a bit more success than that because the threat Brees presents will take some of the 49ers focus off the ground game, and also because the Saints can mash at the line of scrimmage behind Pro Bowl linemen Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, and Jermon Bushrod.  Still, on the whole I expect the 49ers to hold New Orleans to around 100 yards, and perhaps less on the ground.

The real issue comes when the Saints spread the defense out.  While the Niners are good against the pass, and particularly stingy in terms of giving up points, they can be susceptible to giving up long passing plays.

I expect pro bowl corner Carlos Rogers to lock up with the Saints’ #1 receiver, Marques Colston.  Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem will likely be handled by Tarrell Brown and rookie Corner Chris Culliver, respectively, though I expect safeties Donte Whitner and the Pro Bowler Dashon Goldson and to provide a lot of help on the back end.  The 49ers must make the Saints earn every yard and really limit explosive plays.

Jimmy Graham, the Saints all-world tight end, and Darren Sproles, the do-everything New Orleans back, are probably the toughest matchups.  Graham is so hard to defend because of his 6’7” frame, athleticism, and wonderful hands.  Sproles is just the opposite: diminutive at 5’6”, but lightning quick and incredibly elusive.  Fortunately for San Francisco, two of the three All-Pro inside linebackers elected by the Associated Press this year belong to the 49ers in Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman.  I would expect Bowman to key on Sproles and Willis and a safety focus on Graham.

The 49ers excel at getting to the quarterback with just four rushers, but the Saints are the best offensive line they’ve faced all year.  The one weak spot is right tackle Zack Strief, and I expect super rookie Aldon Smith to be lined up over Strief all day long.  The Saints will likely help Strief quite a bit, but that means a tight end or back (Sproles or Graham) will have to delay their release to get a chip on Smith.  It also means that All-Pro defensive end Justin Smith should see a fair share of single blockers to dominate.

When the 49ers have the ball, they are going to test their 8th-ranked rushing attack against a solid rushing defense; the Saints rank twelfth in rushing yards allowed per game.  Meanwhile, the 49ers 29th-ranked passing attack will be evenly matched with the Saints 30th-ranked secondary.

I expect the Niners to be able to possess the ball, ride Frank Gore, and work Vernon Davis overtime.  While Jimmy Graham may be the better player, Davis certainly isn’t facing an all-pro group of linebackers, and should have the matchup advantage.

The Saints are going to blitz constantly, which means Smith has to get rid of the ball quickly, and short routes to Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis could lead to long runs through a suspect New Orleans secondary.

Essentially, I see the 49ers offense as a pretty even match with the Saints defense, and the Saints great offense will be facing perhaps an equally great defense in San Fran.  The difference then will be special teams, coaching, and the turnover battle.  In terms of special teams, the 49ers boast the best punter and maybe the best kicker in the league.  Statistically San Francisco averaged the best starting field position of any team, and conversely pinned opponents with the worst starting field position on average.  In other words, the Niners are the best special teams unit in football.

Quickly, another element is that the 49ers have had two weeks to rest and prepare for New Orleans, while the Saints played a physical Lions team last week and now must travel across the country.

In outdoor road games this year the Saints averaged 26 points per game.  In home games, the 49ers scored 28.  Additionally, the 49ers allow just 11 points per game at home on the season.

Finally, the 49ers led the league with a +28 turnover ratio, while the Saints where -3 on the year.

At home, with superior special teams, a defense than can match up with a great Saints offense, a tremendous coaching staff with an extra week to prepare, and an offense that scores more than people think, I like my 49ers to ride on through to the Conference title game.

Prediction: 49ers 30 – Saints 24

A Decade-Long Dilemma

Before I launch in to what is going to be the my meat of my discussion here, let me preface my subject matter by saying that a 13-3, first-round bye-earning 49ers has me about as happy as a person could be.   I never expected this amount of success, and the few times they’d lost this year I had to pinch myself and remember that  it was an optimistic outlook when I pegged them for eight wins going into the season.

The question though, similar though more subtle than questions about Tim Tebow in Denver, is: can Alex Smith sustain this level of play, elevate it, or at the least do enough to keep the 49er train rolling?  Unlike Tebow, Smith doesn’t need to completely re-work his throwing motion, nor is he perhaps better suited to play fullback.  It’s just, nobody is quite sure if he’s capable of being anything more than a pretty solid quarterback.

The debate on Smith has been ongoing but reached a pinnacle this morning when I heard Kordell Stewart argue on ESPN radio that Smith was a Pro Bowl snub and deserved to make the squad over Eli Manning.  Stewart’s argument was that Smith had done exactly what his team needed and led them to a tremendous record in the process, whereas Manning, for all of his great stats, was merely 8-7 at the time.

Stewart raises an interesting point.  Is Smith having a consistent but underwhelming statistical year because that is the formula for his team to win or because he is getting the maximum level of production from his limited talent reservoir?  Smith, finished the year with 3,144 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions.  His 90.7 passer rating ranked ninth league-wide.

While those numbers are certainly solid, they are far from spectacular.  And are they reflective of a quarterback that can lead his team to a Super Bowl?  Perhaps, given the Niners’ outstanding defense, great special teams, and strong running attack, Smith is exactly what he needs to be.

This is the point in the Smith discussion where we point out that he’s had a different offensive system every year that he’s played in the league, save for one, and that his circumstances entering the league where less than ideal, coming to an awful 49er team.  But with all of that changed, with the stability of a great coach who’s also offensive minded and a former quarterback, is Smith’s best season as a pro a sign of progress toward a higher level or simply the genius of Jim Harbaugh squeezing every last bit of production out of an average player?

You might ask, “Why does it matter?”  The 49ers are 13-3, whatever Smith is doing is working, so why tinker with it?  That’s a fair point, but the 49ers aspirations are no longer to win a bad division and shoot for an 8-8 record.  This team wants a championship, and for that to happen the quarterback must be more than adequate.  Smith is on a one-year deal right now, so these questions become even more pressing when assessing the future.

A starting quarterback at the age of 27 (Smith’s age) is going to want big-time dollars, especially after leading his team to 13 victories.  Yet Smith still sails passes over wide open receivers, struggles mightily on third down and in the red zone, and fails to make many explosive plays down the field.

With another year to get comfortable and fully master Harbaugh’s offensive attack, Smith may finally hit the tier of elite play where he can be a 4,000 yard passer and take a team on his back and win games by himself.  That could happen, but I just don’t see it.  Usually when a player is going to breakout, we see flashes of brilliance.  Aaron Rodgers looked magnificent when he had to come in and play for an injured Brett Favre against a tough Cowboys team in an ’08 game before becoming the starter in ‘09.  Andy Dalton and Cam Newton have already showed us glimpses of what could be awesome careers.

Yet Smith never quite looks that way.  49er fans are just relieved when he hits a receiver in stride.  The ball hardly ever fires from Smith’s hands with conviction, and he rarely makes a throw where as a fan you say, “That was a pass few players can make.”

My inclination is that Smith may get better with another year in Harbaugh’s system but will never be anything more than a B-level player.  In this league, that may be good enough for a lot of wins, and with their defense, the 49ers may even be able to win a Super Bowl, but it makes their margin for error razor thin.

So what to do with Smith and his expired contract at the end of the year?  If there are no other viable options, you simply have to pay him.  A 13-win season is something Niner fans have been waiting for since Smith arrived, and even before that.  This franchise has been god-awful for a near decade, and to change anything about a team that has had such a terrific season is going to draw extreme scrutiny from all sides.  If nothing else, Smith has proven that with the right cast and good coaching, he can be a winner.

The option I like better is one that has been bandied about talk radio quite frequently, so it may have some legs or it may be pure conjecture.  Many are talking about the 49ers trading for Peyton Manning, who seems to be getting healthy, and will likely be replaced with the Colts’ future number one overall pick, Andrew Luck.  The thought is that Luck is ready to play right now, and the Colts would be wasting time having him sit behind Manning and should test the market to see what they could get in return for Peyton.

In the event that Manning was completely healthy, he would still be an elite player for another two-to-three years and would want to finish his career where he had a chance to win a championship.  With Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, and Michael Crabtree, plus a stout offensive line and a great defense at his back, Manning would have the kind of cast he could lead to great heights.  He could also tutor what must be regarded as the 49ers’ future at quarterback, last year’s second-round pick Colin Kaepernick.

Beyond Manning the free agent crop is pretty dry at quarterback, and drafting yet another rookie passer would just be a step in the wrong direction unless somehow the 49ers were able to attain Andrew Luck.

Smith won’t be content to play the backup role next year, nor would he sign with the 49ers for backup money, so San Francisco’s options are limited.  They can either sign Smith to at minimum a 3-year deal worth likely a large sum or make a move for Manning hoping that he can be fully healthy coming off of (gulp) neck surgery and can elevate a very good team into a Super Bowl favorite.

Either way, Kaepernick won’t be ready for another year or two, and even then we cannot be sure what type of player he will be.  The most likely scenario appears to be that Smith will get re-signed in San Fran, and the Faithful will have to hope that he develops further under the guru Jim Harbaugh.  It’s not the best scenario in the world, but it no longer feels as though the 49ers are being held hostage by Alex Smith.  If he returns as the starter next year—and for the foreseeable future—I will be hopeful about him progressing, though I never see him turning the corner to become a truly great quarterback.

--from @AdamHocking

Wild Card Round Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Bengals at Texans	Bengals	Texans
Steelers at Broncos	Steelers	Steelers
Lions at Saints	Saints	Saints
Falcons at Giants	Falcons	Falcons
	Adam	Eric
Week 17 record	11-5	13-3
Final Regular Season Standings	158-98	180-76
Points	158	180

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

This is a rematch of a really close game in Week 14; the Bengals lost in Houston 20-19.

TJ Yates should be ready to play in this game after sustaining a mild injury to his non-throwing shoulder, but he should be fine.  I think it’s funny how media and Texans fans alike are breathing a sigh of relief as if not having Yates is akin to not having Peyton Manning.  Yates is a third-string, rookie quarterback!  Still, I guess the threat of Jake Delhomme weaseling his way into the game in place of Yates would frighten me as a Houston fan too.

Andre Johnson should play in this game, though with recent and lingering hamstring issues in both legs, his effectiveness is certainly in question.  Johnson caught two passes for 21 yards last week, but perhaps he was just getting back into the flow of things.

If Johnson is ready to rumble, the Texans are frightening.  Arian Foster and Ben Tate are as good a running combo as there is in all of football, and combined with talented tight end Owen Daniels, a potentially healthy Johnson, and a top offensive line, the Texans have a more well-rounded attack than the Bengals.

Offensively the Bengals are a little more limited, though I like Andy Dalton more than Yates.  They pound the rock with Cedric Benson who grinds out 3.9 yards per attempt but is never explosive.  His long run on the year is 11 yards.  Seriously.  AJ Green is a star, but he should be somewhat neutralized by the play of Pro Bowl Houston corner, and former Bengal, Jonathan Joseph.

I’m backed into a corner in this game as Eric and I have the same picks for the other three Wild Card matchups, and I like this as my upset special.  Mainly I like Andy Dalton.  I think he’s the type of guy who plays calmly and plays well in big games.  AJ Green is a stud, Jerome Simpson has big play ability, and Jermaine Gresham can be a factor if targeted enough.

The Bengals will control the clock with Benson, keep the Texans’ pass rush honest, and hit enough big plays to their wide outs to spoil the Texans’ first ever playoff appearance.  It will be close, and the mere presence of Arian Foster makes me really worry about this pick, but I’ll ride with the Red Rifle.  Who dey?

Prediction: Bengals 24 – Texans 23

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

The Steelers are certainly banged up.  Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t looked himself in the last few weeks, and feature back Rashard Mendenhall is lost for the season with a torn ACL.

Yet this game won’t be so much about the limitations that Pittsburgh has on offense.  It will be about the fact that Tim Tebow is the worst starting passer in the NFL.  Last week in a crucial game at home, Tebow went 6-22 for 60 passing yards, one of the worst stat lines you will ever see.  His completion percentage on the season is 46.5%, by far the worst of any player that has seen his share of starts on the year.

Opposing Tebow will be the stingiest defense in the league both in terms of scoring and passing yards against—just what the worst passer in the league needs, the best pass defense in the league coming to town.

Denver’s bread and butter, their rushing attack, should be bottled up by Pittsburgh stacking at least eight and often nine men in the box to stop Tebow and Willis McGahee from getting on track.

The league has figured out Tebow.  The Broncos have scored less than 17 points or less in five of their last seven games.  That trend will continue Sunday.

Prediction: Steelers 20 – Broncos 6

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

According to ESPN Radio’s Colin Cowherd, Las Vegas odds makers consider this year’s New Orleans Saints to have the single greatest home field advantage in NFL history, in terms of how many points they are consistently favored by in the Superdome.  In home games this year the Saints average 41 points and are a perfect 8-0.

The Lions certainly bring some pizzazz, or if you prefer, razzle-dazzle to this matchup, but they lack the depth and well roundedness of New Orleans.  While the Lions are positively dynamic throwing the ball—Matthew Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards this season—they rank twenty-ninth in the league in rushing yards per game.  The Saints meanwhile threw for even more yards than did Detroit and conversely rank near the top of the league, sixth, in running the ball at 133 rushing yards per contest.

The Saints are terrible at defending the pass however, ranking thirtieth, and while their run defense is respectable, I would expect the Lions to make no bones about the fact that Stafford will throw the ball all day long.

Detroit's front four has been more talk than walk this year, allowing opponents to run for 128 yards per game on them, twenty-third league-wide.  Though the Lions did notch 41 sacks on the year, tenth, and at least give Drew Brees cause to lose a little bit of sleep.  New Orleans counters of course by allowing the second fewest sacks in the league.

Also, Detroit is +11 in turnover ratio on the year whereas New Orleans is -3; that’s pretty significant when you think that each possession could potentially lead to points.

Ultimately I think the Saints have as much explosive potential as the Lions with a lot more ball control mixed in.  Even without Mark Ingram, the Saints’ three-headed monster of Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, and Darren Sproles will be adequate behind a powerful offensive line.  Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston are good possession targets, as is Sproles coming out of the backfield.  Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem provide the vertical threat that keeps defenses honest and opens up the entire field for Brees to dissect.

Stafford will make his plays, but expect Calvin Johnson to see two defenders focused on him all day.  Brandon Pettigrew, Tony Scheffler, and Nate Burleson have to be chain movers for Stafford if Detroit hopes to maintain some balance, and running back Kevin Smith could use at the very least an 18-carry, 75-yard-type rushing line.

Even so, I think home field, the mastery of Brees, and the balance of the Saints will be too much for the talented but immature Lions.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Lions 28

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

The Giants are getting healthy with Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck back at full strength to help full-fledged stud Jason Pierre-Paul create a tenacious pass rush.   The Falcons counter with a good offensive line that allowed the 6th-fewest sacks this season (just 26 all year).  If the Falcons can keep Matt Ryan clean, Atlanta should be able to dictate the time of possession battle.  Though the run game for the Falcons is perhaps a bit overrated (just seventeenth in rushing yards per game) having a workhorse like Michael Turner is a huge factor.

While the Falcons can dominate the ball a little longer and have a host of good skill players in Ryan, Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez, the Giants are a bit more of a quick strike team.  Eli Manning is certainly playing at a high level, throwing for nearly 5,000 yards on the year, but the idea that Ryan will be overmatched in the quarterback battle is probably more media hype than substance.  Ryan’s completion percentage this year is slightly higher than Manning’s, they threw the same amount of touchdowns with 29, and Ryan tossed 12 interceptions to Manning’s 16.  Manning finished the year with a 92.9 passer rating compared to Ryan’s 92.2.

When looking for the main advantage in this game it’s easy to think at first glance that the Giants will win the aerial game and the Falcons will stick to ground and pound.  In reality, the Falcons throw the ball just as efficiently as New York but run the ball at a much higher level.  New York allows 4.5 yards per rushing attempt, while they muster just 3.5 yards per run when they possess the ball.

Atlanta is also better in the field goal game, and in a game that should be close, having Matt Bryant (27-29 in field goals this year) is better than having Lawrence Tynes (19-24).   Looking at home field advantage isn’t very telling either.  The Giants are 4-4 at home, and the Falcons 4-4 on the road.

Overall the Falcons have been the more consistent team on the season.

Atlanta will play conservatively on defense, not allowing Victor Cruz to get behind the secondary or Hakeem Nicks to carve them up either.  On offense they will use their greatest asset, their balance, to keep the Giants’ pass rush honest and expose what is a weak linebacking group and secondary for New York.  If you can neutralize the Giants’ front four, you beat them, and I think Atlanta will.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Giants 24

Week 17 Game Notes

Eagles over Redskins

• The Redskins need: offensive playmakers, a quarterback, an eventual replacement for London Fletcher...
• They need a lot.
• The Eagles finally figured out just how talented they are, finishing the year with 4-straight wins. Every team in the playoffs is happy the Eagles’ strong finish was too little too late.
• Can Michael Vick be a true franchise quarterback? As a 32-year-old next season, I’m not sure he can ever stay healthy for 14-16 games per year.

Packers over Lions

• With a huge performance Matthew Stafford finishes the season with 5,038 passing yards and 41 touchdowns-to-16 picks.
• Calvin Johnson had 11 catches for 244 yards in this game to finish just under 1,700 receiving yards. He also notched 16 receiving scores.
• Stafford is 23. Johnson is 26. My gosh, how good is tandem going to be for the next 5-7 years?
• In a losing effort the Lions proved that they are still an immature team, but they also proved why they should scare everyone in the playoffs. They are incredibly explosive.
• Matt Flynn breaks Packer single game records for passing yards and passing touchdowns in his lone start of the year, not too shabby for the franchise of Bart Starr, Brett Favre, and Aaron Rodgers.
  15-1.
• Say what you want about the defense, but 15 wins in 16 games is proof of a great team. It's not perfection, but 15 wins doesn't happen often.

Dolphins over Jets

• Another ugly game for the Jets.
• Shut up, Rex.

Saints over Panthers

• The Panthers established a pattern this year of playing a really good half or three quarters of football and then falling apart. They need to address their defense this offseason in a major way.
• I can't wait to see what Cam Newton can do with a full offseason and a year of experience under his belt.
• The Saints are an absolute machine at home. With an unblemished home record, New Orleans averaged over 40 points per game in the Superdome.
• On the road, however, the Saints were 5-3 and averaged just 26 points.
• Lions at Saints should be a really fun shootout of a Wild Card game.

49ers over Rams

• The game looked out of sight when the Niners went up 34-13 in the fourth quarter.
• Give the Rams credit for rallying and almost coming back, ultimately though they finish at a dismal 2-14 and don't even get the reward of the #1 overall pick.
• Alex Smith's season numbers—3,150 passing yards, 61% completions, 17 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 91 passer rating—not glamorous, but damn solid and good enough to help guide his team to a 13-3 record.
• The Niners blew the defensive scoring title by allowing the Rams to rally. Pittsburgh ended the year with 2 less points allowed than San Fran.
• Coming into 2011, nobody would have believed the 49ers would be the NFC's two seed, and you can't just chalk it up to a bad division. San Francisco was 8-2 outside of the NFC West.

Bears over Vikings

• The Vikings are just beginning what should be a major rebuilding process.
• The Bears have to feel cheated. After losing Jay Cutler and Matt Forte for the season, they just didn't have a chance.

Titans over Texans

• The Titans were the most enigmatic team in the league this year in my opinion. I could never figure out if they were any good. They finish 9-7 and just out of the playoffs.
• The Texans lose three-straight heading into their first ever playoff game; that doesn't seem like a good sign.
• Another bad sign: third stringer and rookie TJ Yates sustained an injury, which forced Jake Delhomme out of the witness protection program and into the game. Even if Yates can play next week, Houston is still relying on a backup's backup and a rookie to win in the postseason.

Jaguars over Colts

• Well, here we go. Andrew Luck is the Colts property if they want him, and then what to do with Peyton Manning?
• Might Indy consider trading the pick for a treasure chest of assets in return, hoping to surround Manning for one more title run? I doubt it.
• Might Peyton Manning get traded, and to whom? That I think is the more pertinent question.
• The Jaguars need to build something around Maurice Jones-Drew before they waste his golden years. He's a monster, leading the league with 1,600 rushing yards this year.

Patriots over Bills

• First quarter: Bills 21 – Patriots 0
• Next three quarters: Patriots 49 – Bills 0
• New England clinches home field throughout the playoffs.
• The Bills, after showing real signs of life to start the year, end 6-10 and still have a long way to go in making themselves into a contender. I'm not sure Ryan Fitzpatrick is the guy, too bad they gave him a 6-year deal worth nearly $60 million.

Steelers over Browns

• It was ugly and ultimately not worth the pain that it took to win as Baltimore sewed up the #2 seed.
• Ben Roethlisberger probably could have used this week off as well, but now he'll head to Denver next week to kick off the playoffs.
• I'm confident the Steelers’ defense will be plenty good enough to ensure a win in Denver, but I worry that Big Ben just won't be healthy enough for them to make a return Super Bowl trip.
• Rashard Mendenhall is done for the playoffs with a torn ACL. With a banged up Roethlisberger and a missing Mendenhall, the Steelers are really limping into the playoffs.

Chiefs over Broncos

• Good for Kyle Orton, though victory would have been even sweeter if it would have held Denver out of the playoffs.
• Final AFC West Standings: Denver: 8-8, San Diego: 8-8, Oakland: 8-8, Kansas City: 7-9. It was competitive at least.
• Tim Tebow: 6-22 passing for 60 yards, the Steelers are licking their chops.
• Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, and Tony Moeaki are all going to be back for Kansas City next year. That's like adding three Pro Bowl-level players for free. If they find the right coach, draft well, and sign some good free agents, the Chiefs could easily compete for the playoffs next year.

Ravens over Bengals

• The Bengals went 0-4 against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. They're good, but they haven't arrived yet.
  Cam Cameron, give Ray Rice the ball: 24 carries for 191 yards against a good Bengals defense.
• Joe Flacco and Alex Smith face the same question: can they stay out of the way well enough for their excellent teams to win a Super Bowl?
• I kid, sort of, I think both Flacco and Smith are capable of playing at a high level, but both will have to prove it on the big stages.

Cardinals over Seahawks

• Two teams fighting for respectability and both are better than anyone thought they'd be a few weeks into the season.
• With these two teams reaching the level of "average" and the 49ers ascending to elite, the NFC West is no longer the worst division in football. I submit the AFC South and AFC West as nice replacement candidates.

Falcons over Buccaneers

• That’s all for now Raheem Morris.
• The Falcons love beating up on bad teams, but they need to prove it against some of the NFL's big boys. Bring on the Giants.

Chargers over Raiders

• Oakland had their chances, and the man they gave up a fortune to get, Carson Palmer, couldn't deliver a playoff birth.
• It's time to cut Norv Turner loose San Diego.
• It's time to bring Turner in as an offensive coordinator for the Jets.

Giants over Cowboys

• Why the hell did I pick the Cowboys? What a bad year for Dallas, blowing multiple big leads in the fourth quarter.
• Tony Romo played at a high level this year but will be 32 next season and doesn't seem to have that leadership ability that other top quarterbacks have.
• Maybe that's not the case, but it sure seems like the Cowboys consistently lack focus, and that has to fall on Romo and head coach Jason Garrett.
• The Cowboys are a strange team to evaluate. Are they a few pieces away from being a legit contender, or do they need to start rebuiliding? DeMarcus Ware, Romo, Jay Ratliff, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten are all good players to build around, but none are spring chickens.
• The Giants have to scare everyone.
• Eli Manning showed that he can score with the Packers, and with Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, he has plenty of weaponry to light up the scoreboard.

--from @AdamHocking