Week 17 Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Redskins at Eagles	Eagles	Eagles
Lions at Packers	Lions	Packers
Jets at Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins
Panthers at Saints	Saints	Saints
49ers at Rams	49ers	49ers
Bears at Vikings	Vikings	Vikings
Titans at Texans	Titans	Titans
Colts at Jaguars	Colts	Jaguars
Bills at Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Steelers at Browns	Steelers	Steelers
Chiefs at Broncos	Chiefs	Chiefs
Ravens at Bengals	Ravens	Ravens
Seahawks at Cardinals	Cardinals	Seahawks
Buccaneers at Falcons	Falcons	Falcons
Chargers at Raiders	Raiders	Chargers
Cowboys at Giants	Cowboys	Cowboys
	Adam	Eric
Week 16 Record	11-5	11-5
Season Standings	147-93	167-73

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles 

Both teams are out of contention, but the Eagles have a much easier time putting up points than Washington.

Prediction: Eagles 27 – Redskins 16

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers 

The Packers have literally nothing to play for as they’ve secured homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  The Lions have a little more at stake as they jockey with Atlanta over which team secures the fifth and sixth seeds.  The goal in securing the fifth seed is not so much so down the road the Lions could host the NFC title game against Atlanta.  It has more to do with who they would play in the first round.  The 5 seed will travel to whoever wins the Giants-Cowboys clash in the first round of the playoffs, while the 6 seed will have to likely travel to New Orleans or possibly San Francisco for their wild card matchup.  Any team, given the option, should prefer to play either of those NFC East teams as opposed to the Niners or Saints.  Given that motivation, the high level of play Matthew Stafford has exhibited lately, and the fact that Green Bay will likely play a lot of backups, I’ll take the Lions in this game.

Prediction: Lions 31 – Packers 23

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

I’ll make this short and sweet.  I think the Dolphins are playing pretty good ball down the stretch, and I think the Jets are ready for this year to be over.  Even with a win the Jets need help to reach the postseason, and I don’t see Mark Sanchez doing enough against a pretty good Dolphins defense.

Prediction: Dolphins 20 – Jets 17

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints 

I love everything about Cam Newton, but the Saints need this game badly, and they look like a focused machine in their last few outings.  I expect a high-scoring affair, but the superior team with more on the line will triumph.

Prediction: Saints 41 – Panthers 28

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams

Both teams have something to play for in a sense.  The Niners need to win in order to ensure a first round bye, and a Rams loss could secure them the top pick in next year’s draft.  A first-round bye would be huge for San Francisco, and there’s little chance of them overlooking the Rams since it is the last game of the year, and there’s no opponent per se to look forward to, since that is yet to be determined.  This will be a nice test for the 49ers: not playing a great team, but a game they absolutely have to win, on the road, in the division, against a team with nothing to lose.  Still, I think the 49ers with their solid formula will have enough to separate from the Rams over the course of the game.  Patrick Willis should be back as well, which will be a huge lift for San Francisco.

Prediction: 49ers 23 – Rams 10

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

A really hard game to pick, neither team has anything on the line save for draft positioning.  I don’t think the Bears will have enough without Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and Johnny Knox to win the game.  It could be the Joe Webb show if Christian Ponder can’t play, but whoever lines up under center will be handing to Toby Gerhart and looking for Percy Harvin early and often.  I’ll take the Vikings at home.

Prediction: Vikings 20 – Bears 16

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans 

The Texans are locked into the #3 seed in the AFC, so they have little to play for, save for maybe building some rhythm for the playoffs.  The Titans meanwhile have everything to play for with slim playoff hopes still alive.  There are a number of scenarios in which Tennessee could make the playoffs, and that will be enough to spur them to victory.

Prediction: Titans 27 – Texans 20

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

After losing thirteen in a row to start the year the Colts could potentially win three-straight to finish.  Though that would likely put them out of the running for Andrew Luck, the Colts aren’t going to just mail it in.  Dan Orlovsky right now is a better player than Blaine Gabbert, and Dwight Freeney/Robert Mathis should make things difficult for Jacksonville’s already anemic passing attack.  I’ll take the Colts.

Prediction: Colts 24 – Jaguars 20

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Tom Brady knows how much his team needs homefield throughout the playoffs.  New England is bad defensively and doesn’t have a particularly powerful running game, so they need every advantage they can get.  That’s why I expect the Patriots to come out sharp, and while the defense will bend, it won’t break in terms of allowing points.

Prediction: Patriots 34 – Bills 23

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns 

I don’t know if Ben Roethlisberger will play, but I know that since the Ravens will be playing at the same time as the Steelers, Pittsburgh will go all out to win.  That means against the lowly Browns, no matter who starts at quarterback, the Steelers will win.

Prediction: Steelers 19 – Browns 9

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos 

Mile High will be going crazy in this game, but I refuse to drink the Tim Tebow sacramental wine.  Fight the power Kyle Orton!

Prediction: Chiefs 20 – Broncos 19

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

If the Ravens win, they clinch a first-round bye, and with an added New England loss they would be the AFC’s top seed.  If the Bengals win, they assure themselves of getting into the playoffs.  The Ravens have been a bad road team, and I thought Cincy would go at least 1-3 against the AFC North big brothers of Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but the more I look at this game, the more I see Baltimore coming out on top.  It’s a playoff-type atmosphere, and Baltimore is going to want homefield badly, especially if they had to play Pittsburgh again in the playoffs.  I’ll take the Ravens in what should be a great game.

Prediction: Ravens 24 – Bengals 17

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals 

Give me Arizona because they’ll be at home, and Seattle is coming of an emotional letdown, an incredibly physical game against San Francisco.

Prediction: Cardinals 17 – Seahawks 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Since the Lions play three hours earlier, the Falcons will likely know whether or not they have anything to play for in terms of seeding.  I’m assuming the Lions win early, meaning the Falcons could not improve their seed, but I still think Atlanta plays this game like it’s meaningful after getting beaten like a drum last week against the Saints.

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Buccaneers 13

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Because there is nothing on the line, this is exactly the type of game San Diego usually wins, but I’m going in a different direction.  The Raiders’ defense will play well, Michael Bush will grind out yards, and Sebastian Janikowski will nail a game-winning kick.

Prediction: Raiders 23 – Chargers 20

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

This is just perfect. The game got flexed to Sunday night, and it’s the biggest game of the weekend. The winner claims the NFC East.  The loser is out on its collective ass.  Normally I would take Eli Manning in a big spot over Tony Romo, especially at home, but I think Romo is ready to shed the choke artist label and will connect with Miles Austin and Jason Witten early and often while DeMarcus Ware terrorizes Manning.  I can’t believe I’m saying it, but I’ll take Dallas in a clutch spot.

Prediction: Cowboys 27 – Giants 24

Adam’s NFL All-Pro Team: Defense and Special Teams

For the Defensive All-Pro team, I’m just going to give you my selection and my rationale as opposed to listing the candidates like I did for the offensive team.  There are just too many defensive candidates to talk about all of them, and I don’t want my lovely readers to spend all day reading my article here, as much as you probably want to.

Defensive Lineman: Jared Allen (Vikings)
 

I begrudgingly put a man in purple on my team, but he earned the spot.  On an otherwise bad defense, Allen has been outstanding.  He has 18.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, an interception, and 61 tackles.  He’s a one-man wrecking crew that is impossible for one man to block. 
 

Defensive Lineman: Jason Pierre-Paul (Giants)
 

Eric has rightly accused me of having a man-crush on JPP.  The guy is unreal.  His arms nearly reach the ground, he has incredible burst, and surprising strength for a man with his long build.  With 15 sacks on the year, countless pressures, and a key blocked field goal against the Cowboys, Pierre-Paul has established himself as one of the surest playmakers in football. 
 

Defensive Lineman: Justin Smith (49ers)
 

The incredible thing about Smith is that his main role is to occupy blockers and let his linebackers clean up the quarterback and flow to the ball.  While he does that job as well as anyone, he’s also added 6.5 sacks and forced three fumbles.  He made the winning play for the 49ers twice this year: when he stripped Jeremy Maclin late in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia, effectively sealing the victory, and knocking down an Eli Manning potential game-tying touchdown pass on fourth down with about a minute left in 49ers-Giants contest.  Peter King had him as his Defensive MVP runner-up at mid-season, incredible for a 3-4 end to receive that kind of recognition.
 

Defensive Lineman: Haloti Ngata (Ravens)
 

Ngata is impossible to block.  At 6’4” and 350 pounds, he moves like a quick defensive end.  With 5 sacks and 60 total tackles, Ngata has nice stats, but his true value lies in the amount of attention opponents must pay to him.  He always demands a double team, which makes the entire defense around him better. 
 

Linebacker: Navorro Bowman (49ers)
 

Clearly Bowman has been taking notes from the man he plays next to, Patrick Willis.  If Willis and Bowman switched uniforms, you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference, and that is a huge compliment to the third-year man from Penn State.  Bowman has been a tackling machine (133 total tackles), he’s excellent in coverage, and plays sideline-to-sideline as well as any player in the game.  His signature play on the season was a takedown of Michael Vick when he was one-on-one with the speedster in the open field and dropped him easily.
 

Linebacker: Patrick Willis (49ers)
 

Yes, he’s missed three games this year, but in 12 starts he notched 93 tackles, 4 forced fumbles, 1 interception and 2 sacks.  Ask yourself, is there any other player you would want manning the middle of your linebacking group?
 

Linebacker: Terrell Suggs (Ravens)
 

It seems ludicrous at first glance to keep DeMarcus Ware off of this list in favor of Suggs, but T-Sizzle belongs on the All-Pro team for a reason.  First, unlike Ware, Suggs plays on a top-tier.  Ware is certainly deserving of a spot, tallying 18 sacks this year, but Suggs is no slouch at 13.  Ware has notched no interceptions to Suggs’ 2 picks, and while Ware has forced two fumbles, Suggs has forced 6.  When Suggs is going right, he may be the toughest pass rusher to block in the league. 
 

Defensive Back: Darelle Revis (Jets)
 

Revis Island is once again a frightening place to be, after it became a little more of a cushy vacation spot last year.  Revis is second in the league in passes defended and has also picked off the opponent 4 times despite being tested less than any other man in the league. 
 

Defensive Back: Brandon Browner (Seahawks)
 

“Who?”  I would have said the same thing to start this year, but Browner has been tremendous.  He’s tied for the league lead in passes defended with 20, is second in the league in interceptions with 6, and also has 52 tackles.  Not to mention at 6’4” and 221 pounds Browner matches up well with even the biggest and strongest receivers in the game. 
 

Defensive Back: Dashon Goldson (49ers)
 

After a strong 2009, Goldson fell off in the Niners’ lost 2010 but has been a stud in 2011.  He has 52 tackles, is tied for second in the league with 6 interceptions, and hits as hard as any safety.  He almost never makes a big mistake in coverage and covers a tremendous amount of ground at the back end of a great defense. 
 

Defensive Back: Charles Woodson (Packers)
 

I know that technically he’s a cornerback, but the guy lines up as a linebacker, safety, and corner.  He’s one of the most versatile players in the game, and even at the age of 35 is a perennial candidate for Defensive Player of the Year.  74 tackles, 7 interceptions, and 2 sacks prove that Woodson is an incredible addition to any defense.
 

Kicker: David Akers (49ers)

Akers broke Jerry Rice’ record for most points in a season by in 49ers history.  That’s not necessarily a record 49er fans wanted, but it takes nothing away from Akers’ great play.  Akers has ten more made field goals than anyone else in the league, has consistently made 50+ yard kicks (7-9 from that range) and is hitting 86% of his overall attempts.  That’s not the best mark in the league, but considering he’s attempted 10 more field goals than any other player, it’s pretty damn good.
 

Punter: Andy Lee (49ers)

Lee is on pace to break the all-time record for net punting average at just over 44 yards per punt.  He’s a prime reason the 49ers consistently pin their opponents deep and lead the league in starting field position.  He’s a veritable weapon to go along with the great 49er defense.
 

Kick Returner: Patrick Peterson (Cardinals)

Peterson is starting to remind many of another #21 who once played the corner position and haunted special teams units with his return ability.  While Peterson has a ways to go to become the cover man Deion Sanders was, he’s already just as dangerous in the return game.  Peterson has 4 punt returns for scores and averages 16 yards per return, second only to Devin Hester.

--from @AdamHocking

Adam’s NFL All-Pro Team: Offense

It’s all in the title folks, we’re looking to name the very best at their respective positions on the year, so let’s not waste any time.  Let’s get straight to the analysis.

Quarterback Candidates: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers

There have been plenty of great quarterbacking performances this year, but no one maintains consistently elite play like Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. For his part, Brees broke Dan Marino’s single season passing yardage mark in last night’s blowout of the Falcons.  Tom Brady has had another monster season, carrying a team whose defense is on pace to allow the most passing yards in NFL history.  In the final analysis however, Rodgers has to be the choice. Rodgers has more touchdown passes (42) than either Brees (41) or Brady (36) with about half as many interceptions (6) as his elite passing brethren (Brees has 13 and 11 for Brady).  His yardage per attempt is nearly a full yard higher than Brady or Brees.  Rodgers’ completion percentage ranks only behind Brees, and his quarterback rating of 122.5 easily tops the league.  Beyond all the numbers, one figure is most important: 14-1.  That’s the record that Rodgers has led his Green Bay Packers to, and while the Saints and Patriots stand at 12-3, Rodgers has established the defending Super Bowl Champions as the team at the top of the heap once again.

Choice: Aaron Rodgers (Packers)

 

Running Back Candidates: Arian Foster, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy

Jones-Drew and McCoy have both been fantastic this season but ultimately round out the bottom of this group because their teams are nowhere near playoff contention.  No doubt Jones-Drew’s performance has been impressive as teams have stacked the box against a weak Jacksonville passing game, but it’s hard to get overexcited about any player on a 4-win team. LeSean McCoy has vaulted into superstar status, but with all the talent around him, there’s no excuse for the Eagles' abject failure of a season.  Arian Foster has been great, and perhaps had he not missed time with a hamstring injury he would win this award, but he also splits a lot of carries with Ben Tate, which means the choice goes to Frank Gore.  The spearhead to an offense that struggles to move the ball through the air, the 49ers rely heavily on Gore to keep the chains moving, the clock ticking, and the opponent exhausted.  Gore wins this award because he plays on the best team out of the group, carries as heavy a burden as any man on this list, and he is consistently the focus of the opponent’s defensive gameplan.

Choice: Frank Gore (49ers)

Wide Receiver Candidates: Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, Wes Welker

 

I wish I could put all of these guys on my list because they all deserve it, but I limit myself three spots.  Steve Smith has experienced a career renaissance with the arrival of Cam Newton, to the tune of 1,308 receiving yards and a staggering 18 yards per catch.  Nobody knew Victor Cruz before the season, and he is now one of the preeminent threats in football.  Larry Fitzgerald just continues to produce despite inconsistent quarterback play and being the lone threat on his offense.  Ultimately though, the incredible consistency of Wes Welker (116 catches for 1,518 yards) make him a lock for one spot.  Another has to go to Calvin Johnson because of his sheer size, strength, grace, and because he is probably the hardest receiver to matchup with in the league.  At 6’5” and 235 pounds with 4.3 speed, soft hands, the biggest vertical in the game, and tremendous strength, it’s no wonder Megatron has over 1,400 receiving yards and 15 scores.  Finally, for his sure hands, run after the catch ability, and tremendous production, Victor Cruz gets my final spot.

Choices: Victor Cruz (Giants), Calvin Johnson (Lions), Wes Welker (Patriots)

Tight End Candidates: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski

Both of these men have been amazing this year, going well over 1,000 yards at the tight end position.  That in itself is an awesome feat.  The versatility both players show—splitting out wide, blocking, running after the catch, soft hands—is all the more impressive.  Ultimately though, Gronkowski is a weapon like we may not have seen before at the tight end position.  He has the speed to run with cornerbacks and the strength to carry linebackers and defensive ends on his back.  He has unbelievable balance and an ability to absorb hits and keep his momentum like few players I have ever seen.  Gronk has tremendous hands, the size to go up and get the ball, and set the record for touchdowns by a tight end thus far notching 15 receiving scores.  That ties him for most in the league with Calvin Johnson.  Gronkowski is also on pace to go over 1,300 receiving yards on the season.

Choice: Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)

Offensive Line: There aren’t a whole lot of stats to throw at you here for linemen, nor do you want to hear my technical breakdown of what each guy is doing at the point of attack, so I’ll make my selections short and sweet.

Left Tackle: Jason Peters (Eagles)

Left Guard: Jahri Evans (Saints)

Center: Scott Wells (Packers)

Right Guards: Carl Nicks (Saints)

Right Tackle: Eric Winston (Texans)

--from @AdamHocking

Adam’s NFL All-Pro Team: Full Lineup

QB: Aaron Rodgers (Packers)

RB: Frank Gore (49ers)

WR: Victor Cruz (Giants)

WR: Calvin Johnson (Lions)

WR: Wes Welker (Patriots)

TE: Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)

LT: Jason Peters (Eagles)

LG: Jahri Evans (Saints)

C: Scott Wells (Packers)

RG: Carl Nicks (Saints)

RT: Eric Winston (Texans)

DL: Jared Allen (Vikings)

DL: Jason Pierre-Paul (Giants)

DL: Justin Smith (49ers)

DL: Haloti Hgata (Ravens)

LB: Navorro Bowman (49ers)

LB: Patrick Willis (49ers)

LB: Terrell Suggs (Ravens)

DB: Darelle Revis (Jets)

DB: Brandon Browner (Seahawks)

DB: Dashon Goldson (49ers)

DB: Charles Woodson (Packers)

K: David Akers (49ers)

P: Andy Lee (49ers)

KR: Patrick Peterson (Cardinals)

Week 16 Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Texans at Colts	Texans	Texans
Browns at Ravens	Ravens	Ravens
Broncos at Bills	Broncos	Broncos
Buccaneers at Panthers	Panthers	Panthers
Cardinals at Bengals	Bengals	Bengals
Raiders at Chiefs	Chiefs	Raiders
Dolphins at Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Giants at Jets	Giants	Jets
Rams at Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
Jaguars at Titans	Titans	Titans
Vikings at Redskins	Redskins	Redskins
Chargers at Lions	Chargers	Chargers
Eagles at Cowboys	Eagles	Eagles
49ers at Seahawks	49ers	49ers
Bears at Packers	Packers	Packers
Falcons at Saints	Saints	Saints
	Adam	Eric
Week 15 Record	10-6	10-6
Season Standings	136-88	156-68

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Anything truly can happen in this crazy regular season.  The Saints have lost to the Rams, the Chiefs beat Green Bay, and Tim Tebow is steam-rolling toward the postseason.  So it is entirely conceivable that the smoking hot (1-straight win!) Colts could take down an injury-hampered Texans team.  I'm just not betting on it.  Houston’s strong, ball-controlling ground game and defense that flies all over the field should be enough to keep the talent-deprived Colts at arms length.
Prediction: Texans 24 – Colts 17

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is undefeated at home, they still hold the edge over Pittsburgh, and are in the running for the top seed in the AFC.  They need this game, and I expect them to smoke the punch-less Browns.

Prediction: Ravens 30 – Browns 9

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
I have no idea how to pick games in which Tim Tebow is involved, primarily because I don't understand how he keeps winning.  I do know though the Denver defense can get after the passer and Ryan Fitzpatrick has looked really meek the last handful of games.  I'm sure the Bills are regretting the $59 million contract they gave Fitzy after a hot start.  I'll take the fighting Tebows because of their defense and pounding ground attack.

Prediction: Broncos 20 – Bills 16

Tamp Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
I'm not sure how anyone can pick Tampa Bay at this point.

Prediction:  Panthers 34 – Buccaneers 23

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals
The Cards have been playing good ball lately, winning six of their last seven games, and John Skelton hasn't been bad at all.  Against an athletic defense and the Andy Dalton- AJ Green connection I say the Cards will fall a bit short.  Cincy has a ton to play for, and Arizona is just remotely in the playoff picture, so I'll take the home team who has more on the line.

Prediction: Bengals 23 – Cardinals 20

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
I like the way the Chiefs’ defense got after it last week against Green Bay, and I can only imagine they could do the same to Carson Palmer.  I look for Kyle Orton to control the game with short passes and for this to be an ugly one.  Arrowhead Stadium will be the biggest factor in this game.

Prediction: Chiefs 16 – Raiders 10

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
The Dolphins are a tough out right now—nobody enjoys playing them—but needing to hold onto the #1 seed in the AFC, I trust Tom Brady to hold serve.  Give me the Patriots at home.

Prediction: Patriots 28 – Dolphins 17

New York Giants at New York Jets
This is pretty simple for me.  Neither team is great, but I like Eli Manning a lot more than Mark Sanchez.  It's not really a road game, and the Giants still have plenty of playoff prospects to play for.  I'll take Sanchez to blow it and Manning to thrive.

Prediction: Giants 24 – Jets 17

St. Louis Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't think the Steelers will play Ben Roethlisberger in this game, nor should they.  Dennis Dixon, Rashard Mendenhall, and the Pittsburgh defense should be enough to carry this one home against the hapless Rams.

Prediction: Steelers 20 – Rams 6

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars are really bad; the Titans are just completely unpredictable.  Jake Locker may see some time as the Titans start to feel out their future.  Meanwhile, Blaine Gabbert's future looks anything but exciting right now.  I'll take the Titans because, well...they stink less than Jacksonville.

Prediction: Titans 17 – Jaguars 13

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins
The Redskins, like the Dolphins, are a team playing well late in the year despite being out of contention.  The Vikings, meanwhile, are pointing fingers, their coach is under heavy scrutiny, and their rookie passer should be under heavy pressure all day come game time.  I'll take Washington, although it always scares me to bet on Rex Grossman.

Prediction: Redskins 20 – Vikings 13

San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions
I like this matchup: two teams that like to sling the ball all over the place and are both in the playoff hunt.  I like Philip Rivers as the more consistent player than Matthew Stafford.  Stafford is great at leading comebacks, but Rivers is just the better overall player.  In addition, Ryan Mathews gives the Chargers the balance in the running game that the Lions lack.  Gimme the Bolts.

Prediction: Chargers 34 – Lions 27

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
The Eagles are hot lately, and the Cowboys haven't strung together wins well all season.  I'll play the hot hand and go with Philly.

Prediction: Eagles 31 – Cowboys 27

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
A short turn around for the Niners after playing on Monday night, they now have to suit up and go on a Saturday.  Fortunately they play a division opponent, so game-planning will be much simpler.  I expect the Niners to shut down the Seahawks’ limited offensive attack and do just enough on offense and special teams to win a tough road game.  They all count for San Fran right now because they have to stay ahead of the Saints to guarantee a bye.

Prediction: 49ers 17 – Seahawks 9

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
The Packers still have something to play for as they need to hold off the Niners for the top seed, and one more win against the reeling Bears would clinch home-field all the way to the Super Bowl for Green Bay.  I expect the Pack to come out re-focused after their first loss, knowing that if they win this game they can rest their starters the final week in addition to securing the first-round bye.

Prediction: Packers 27, Bears 14

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
I'll be rooting for Atlanta to knock off New Orleans for the 49ers' sake, but Drew Brees at home and in a big game is hard to pick against.  The Saints have a little too much firepower for Atlanta.

Prediction: Saints 38 – Falcons 27

Week 15 Game Notes

Falcons over Jaguars

Adam

• The Falcons still haven't proved themselves to me as a legitimate big boy in the NFC.
• They have developed some consistency, winning 4 out of their last 5 games, but a big test looms next week with a trip to New Orleans.  Win or lose, that contest will tell us a ton about where the Falcons are in terms of readiness for the playoffs. 
• The Jaguars are terrible, and though it may be premature to write him off completely, Blaine Gabbert looks really bad out there.

Eric

• Dear NFL, Quit putting the Jaguars in prime time.  Sincerely, Everyone.

Cowboys over Buccaneers

Adam

• Not that it proves much of anything, but Dallas did what they were supposed to do, while their main division competition (the Giants) couldn't.
• Beating Tampa Bay is about as hard as finding pot at a college house party, but a win is a win.
• Tony Romo has to scare any opponent with 29 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions so far this year.
• Tampa is young, Josh Freeman will get back on track, and this team will improve, but Raheem Morris will not be around for the rebuilding process.

Eric

• Who best to play when you need a win?  How about the woeful Buccaneers?
• Dallas takes the hotly contested NFC East’s lead, and Tampa Bay loses their eighth-straight.

Dolphins over Bills

Adam

• The Vice Versa game: Buffalo started the season hot, and is now falling apart.  Miami, coaching change aside, is exactly the opposite.
• Reggie Bush is on the verge of a 1,000 yard rushing season.  That would be a nice bounce back for a man whose career has thus far been a big disappointment.

Eric

• Miami extends Buffalo’s losing streak to 7 games.

Seahawks over Bears

Adam

• Caleb Hanie is awful.  I don't know how the hell he played so well last year in the NFC Championship Game, but this guy is not fit for the NFL.
• Seattle has outside playoff hopes after a horrid start.  They're now 7-7, playing good defense, and Tarvaris Jackson has actually performed solidly this year.
• For Jackson, that's a big step.

Eric

• Caleb Hanie… just, no.

Panthers over Texans

Adam

• The Panthers are a team nobody wants to play.  Cam Newton and crew can light up the scoreboard at any time.
• The Texans showed that they are limited with TJ Yates, and especially without Andre Johnson.  Yates could keep this team in games if he had Johnson to bail him out and was supported by the run game, but by himself he can't carry Houston to victory.

Eric

• After the daring comeback last week, TJ Yates time was not meant to be against Carolina.

Colts over Titans

Adam

• This game sums up the Titans season, completely inexplicable.  They were right in the thick of the wild card race, and they lose to the worst team in football.
• I'm kind of glad Indy won a game.  Although 0-16 is funny, it's funnier when it happens to the Lions.  I wouldn't wish that on a solid organization like the Colts.

Eric

• Bust out the bubbly, ‘08 Lions!  There won’t be another 0-16 team this year.

Chiefs over Packers

Adam

• I thought a Packers win in this game was the lock of the century.
• The Chiefs lost their coach, have turmoil at quarterback, and just plain stink.  I guess that just goes to show anything can happen in a given week.
• Long-term, I think this will be good to re-focus the Packers on the real prize, bringing Lombardi home for the second-straight year.

Eric

• Aaron Rodgers replaces Brett Favre as another Packer record holder, this time for most passing touchdowns in a season with 40.
• 40 touchdowns rank sixth all-time.

Saints over Vikings

Adam

• Drew Brees vs. the Minnesota secondary: mismatch of the season.

Eric

• Drew Brees set an NFL record with his eleventh 300-yard passing game this season and tied another with his sixth career game throwing 5 touchdowns.
• More on Brees: he joins Peyton Manning as the only players to throw for 4500 yards in three different seasons.

Redskins over Giants

Adam

• If Washington had more consistency at quarterback and some more weapons on offense, this could be a really good team.
• They play almost everyone tight, they have some studs on defense, and if they could just finish games or create some more explosive plays, they could be a force.
• The Giants continue their inconsistent crusade.  On a good day they go toe-to-toe with the Packers, and on a bad day they can lose to anyone.

Eric

• New York needed this win to keep pace with the Cowboys, but instead they lose to an inferior Redskins team at home and fall one game back in the division.

Bengals over Rams

Adam

• The Bengals haven't made a single thing look easy this year, but they got a road win and kept themselves in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race.
• Question: If the Rams somehow got the first pick in next year's draft, would they possibly bail on Sam Bradford in favor of Andrew Luck?

Eric

• Andy Dalton joins Cam Newton with over 3000 passing yards.
• 2011 is the first year there’s ever been two rookies who have thrown for 3000 yards.

Lions over Raiders

Adam

• The Lions are probably going to make the playoffs, and I'm nearly positive they'll be one and done.  They are too inconsistent and immature to go on the road and beat the Saints, Niners, or Cowboys in a playoff atmosphere.
• How many comeback do the Lions have in them?
• Two first-round picks for Carson Palmer?  Whoops.

Eric

• This is the fourth time this year the Lions have come back from being down at least 13 points, an NFL record.

Cardinals over Browns

Adam

• The Browns have a ton of holes to fill.
• Question: would you rather have John Skelton or Kevin Kolb starting for you at this point?
• Either way, Arizona has played its way back to respectability at 7-7.

Eric

• The cardiac Cardinals won in dramatic fashion again.  Arizona scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to tie the game, and they won in overtime for the third time in seven weeks.

Patriots over Broncos

Adam

• In the first quarter we saw what has made the Broncos a difficult matchup for so many teams: a pounding ground game.
• The rest of the way we saw why they aren't a legitimate threat to do serious damage in the playoffs.  They simply can't throw the ball well enough to keep pace with big time teams.
• Tom Brady: 4,500 yards, 35 touchdowns, 11 picks, 66% completions.  Ho-hum, just another season for the all-time great.

Eric

• This is the third season Tom Brady has thrown for 35 touchdowns.  He’s the second player to have done that, joining Brett Favre.

Eagles over Jets

Adam

• The Eagles are so much scarier right now than the Jets.
• It just took Philadelphia until now to put their pieces together and get healthy.
• LeSean McCoy is in the super-star stratosphere.
• The Jets will not advance to a third-straight AFC Championship with a lethargic offense and an old defense.

Eric

• Maybe the dream isn’t dead.
• If the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys all finish 8-8, Philadelphia wins the division.

Chargers over Ravens

Adam

• The Chargers are probably making their annual run too late, but Philip Rivers finally looks like his usual self.
• The Ravens are bad on the road.  They better hope they can beat out the Steelers for the two seed.

Eric

• Make it three in a row for San Diego.
• The previously 4-7 Chargers now sit just one game behind the AFC West-leading Broncos.

49ers over Steelers

Adam

• I don't understand how a team can beat the Giants, Eagles, Bengals, Lions, and Steelers, be 11-3 and still have so many questions whether or not they are “for real.”
• Their three loses this year have come by a combined 15 points, and the defense is yet to allow a rushing touchdown.
• Alex Smith is no star, but his rating is 91 for the year, and he has weapons like Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis opponents have to game plan for.
• Plus, Frank Gore is on pace for 1300 yards.
• Niner rookie Aldon Smith notched his 13th sack in this game, breaking Charles Haley's team rookie record.  Smith’s 13 sacks also rank fifth in the NFL this year.

Eric

• Ben Roethlisberger probably should have sat this one out.  His ankle injury took away the greatest element of his game, the ability to run around and make things happen when plays break down.  And behind a shaky offensive line, Roethlisberger was a sitting duck in the pocket all night long.
• In addition to being sacked three times, Roethlisberger committed four turnovers, three of which were interceptions caused by his inability to stride on the injured ankle and make accurate throws.

--from @AdamHocking and @jeuneski