Week 8 Pick-Down

Matchup	Adam's Pick	Eric's Pick
Dolphins at Giants	Giants	Giants
Cardinals at Ravens	Ravens	Ravens
Saints at Rams	Saints	Saints
Jaguars at Texans	Texans	Texans
Vikings at Panthers	Panthers	Panthers
Colts at Titans	Titans	Titans
Lions at Broncos	Lions	Lions
Redskins at Bills (in Toronto)	Bills	Bills
Patriots at Steelers	Steelers	Patriots
Browns at 49ers	49ers	49ers
Bengals at Seahawks	Bengals	Bengals
Cowboys at Eagles	Eagles	Eagles
Chargers at Chiefs	Chargers	Chargers
	Adam	Eric
Week 7 Record	7-6	10-3
Season Standings	68-35	70-33

Bye Weeks: Bears, Buccaneers, Falcons, Jets, Packers, Raiders

To see how the "Experts" stack up: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

The predictions here come from Adam and correspond to his picks.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
I'm tempted to pick Indy here for a couple of reasons: first, they have to win some time, and second, it's a divisional game against the up-and-down Titans.  Ultimately though, playing at home and very much alive in the AFC South, I'll take the Titans.  They're the better team, and they need this game.

Prediction: Titans 27 – Colts 17

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams
With Sam Bradford out, the Rams are flatout terrible.  Also, home-field advantage won't matter much for St. Louis as the Saints thrive in a dome environment.  The Rams don't have the horses to keep up with Drew Brees' stable of weapons.

Prediction: Saints 38 – Rams 16

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants
The Dolphins are a mess with a coach that all the players know is on the way out the door.  They have no quarterback, a dearth of weapons on offense, and very little reason to fight at 0-6.  You play to win the game as Herm Edwards would say, but I wonder just how hard the Dolphins are playing right now.  The Giants are an inconsistent team, but they just have so much more going for them than Miami.

Prediction: Giants 23 – Dolphins 13

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Both teams that I think are a little better than their records indicate, and both start rookie quarterbacks.  I think the Vikings have a great shot to win this game, but Cam Newton is playing better than Christian Ponder at this very moment, and I hate the Vikings.  Since it's such a tossup, I'll go with what I want to happen.

Prediction: Panthers 28 – Vikings 23

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens
The Cards’ offensive line is going to get pummeled by the Ravens’ defense, and I look for Joe Flacco to bounce back and prove some naysayers wrong.  The Ravens “good” is very good, and their “bad” is really bad.  I expect them to be on their game after an embarrassing loss to Jacksonville.

Prediction: Ravens 24 – Cardinals 10

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Andre Johnson won’t be back, but if he was, the Texans would feature one of the top offenses in the league.  The combination of Ben Tate and Arian Foster on the ground, combined with the aerial duo of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, is tough to match.  It's sad that Mario Williams had to suffer a season ending injury because the Texans, when healthy, are loaded talent-wise.  At least they're on the mend offensively.

Prediction: Texans 27 – Jaguars 20

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (in Toronto)
The Redskins’ offense was bad to begin with, and now with Tim Hightower gone for the year and Santana Moss gone for at least five weeks, they should be downright abysmal.  I really like the Washington defense, but they’ll have to hold opponents to 13 points to give the offense a chance.  That ain't happening against Buffalo.

Prediction: Bills 21 – Redskins 6

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos
This is an important game for the Lions to prove they are a real contender, not because the Broncos are a good team, but because it's vital that the Lions show they have the fortitude to bounce back from a two-game skid and win on the road.  I think Tim Tebow only has a limited amount a magic, and otherwise he's just, well, limited.  He's not a great passer, and in this league you can't just run around and improvise on every play.  The Lions’ defensive line should feast on Tebow, who got sacked all day long against Miami, and as I always say, there's no coverage for Calvin Johnson.  Give me the Motor City Kitties.

Prediction: Lions: 31 – Broncos 20

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pats have done well against Pittsburgh in recent times, but Ben Roethlisberger is red hot right now and should carve up a suspect Patriots defense.  Whereas when the Patriots have the ball, the Steelers have the defense to match.  Pittsburgh does struggle when teams spread them out—like the Packers in the Super Bowl or the Patriots over the past few years—but I think the biggest weakness in this game is the New England defense, and that will be the difference.

Prediction:  Steelers 27 – Patriots 24

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers

It will be interesting to see how the 49ers handle being big home favorites for the first time in a long time.  Coming off a bye week, they've had plenty of time for everyone to tell them just how great they are, and that is dangerous for any team.  Fortunately, I think Jim Harbaugh has this team really focused on “one day at a time.”  Both defenses in this game are good, but the Niners’ has been dominant, and the Browns don't have skill players comparable to Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Braylon Edwards, who should be back this week.  I also believe the triumvirate of kicker David Akers, punter Andy Lee, and return man Ted Ginn is the best such trio in the league.  They often go unnoticed.  I think the Niners get a few more explosive plays and will ride the home field and their defense to a tough win.  I'll take my boys in a meat grinder game.

Prediction: 49ers 20 – Browns 13

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
The Bengal defense is legit, and Andy Dalton will be the best quarterback on the field Sunday.  I think that will be enough, even on the road, to take out the sea-chickens.

Prediction: Bengals 17 – Seahawks 13

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
If you can figure out the NFC East, let me know.  The Eagles haven't put four good quarters together since they played the Rams in the opening game of the season, and the Cowboys haven't exactly been the model of consistency either.  I'll take Philly simply because they are at home, and I think this division is going to be a dog-fight all year long, which is something Michael Vick should be very comfortable with.  BA-ZING...I had to make a dumb joke, sorry.

Prediction: Eagles 31 – Cowboys 28

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have really recovered after a horrible start, and the Chargers just haven't played up to their talent level.  But I'm stubborn.  The real Philip Rivers will show up.  I say it happens this week, and the Chiefs won't be able to keep up.

Prediction: Chargers: 34 – Chiefs 23

NFL Power Poll #3

1. Green Bay Packers (7-0)

They struggled against a bad Vikings team, but on the road against a divisional opponent, a close game isn’t really the worst thing in the world.  It’s a wakeup call without taking a loss.  The defense has some issues to work out, but they have the personnel to matchup with anyone, and Dom Capers will get that sorted out before the playoffs.

So long as Aaron Rodgers is under center, this team should be favored in every single game they play.  For some perspective, in the year that the Patriots went undefeated and Tom Brady threw 50 touchdowns, his passer rating was 117.  In Peyton Manning’s best statistical year, his rating was 121.  This year Rodgers’ rating is 125.7, comfortably ahead of either Manning or Brady’s best all-time level.  If he continues this type of play, we are looking at possibly the best season ever. 

2. San Francisco 49ers (5-1)

A perfect bye week for the Niners.  They get to rest, will hopefully get Braylon Edwards back to an offense that is starting to find it’s rhythm, and everyone in the NFC West lost.  The Rams sit at 0-6, the Cardinals at 1-5, and the Seahawks at 2-4.  With the way those teams are playing, Seattle is probably the only team that has a chance to even surpass five wins on the entire season, which makes San Fran the more likely to win its division than any other team.

The 49ers get Cleveland at home, then head to Washington to play a banged up and offensively inept Redskins team.  If they get to 7-1, they set themselves up for a first-round bye. 

3. New England Patriots (5-1)

The next few weeks will tell us a ton about the Patriots and also may allow the Jets and Bills to make this one hell of a race in the AFC East.  I still love New England’s offense; they’re just a point-scoring factory, but the defense is a real issue.  With games against the Steelers next week, then the Giants, Jets, and Eagles all upcoming, we should really see how good this team is and if they have the ingredients for another Super Bowl run. 

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)

I begrudgingly put the Steelers here because they’ve won three-straight games, and Ben Roethlisberger is playing at a really high level.  This spot came down to Pittsburgh and the Saints, but I say the Steelers are a more balanced team between offense and defense, so I’ll give them the nod over New Orleans.

5. New Orleans Saints (5-2)

I don’t think destroying the Colts tells us a whole lot about the Saints that we didn’t already know.  They are great on offense, and their defense thrives when they have a sizeable lead and can attack.  Drew Brees is having his typical great year but is still throwing a few too many interceptions.  This is a team that can beat anyone, anywhere, anytime, but I’m not in love with their defense. 

6. Atlanta Falcons (4-3)

This is where things really get sticky.  A host of 4-2 and 4-3 teams really haven’t separated themselves at all.

With two-straight wins, including a road victory at Detroit, I’ll give the six spot to Atlanta more because of their ceiling than how good I really think they are at this moment.  Talent-wise they can stay on the field with anyone, but Matt Ryan has to do better than his current 9-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

7. New York Giants (4-2)

For right now we are looking at the best team in the NFC East, but they haven’t gotten their running game going, and the upcoming schedule is unbelievably brutal.  After the bye week they get a cupcake at home against the Dolphins but then travel to San Francisco, to New England, host the Eagles, go to New Orleans, host the Packers, then go to Dallas.  They might be favored in just one or two of those games and could potentially lose all of them.

8. Buffalo Bills (4-2)

A bye week was great as this team must get focused for the meat of their schedule coming up.  They have an excellent chance to put themselves in good divisional position hosting the Redskins this Sunday and welcoming the Jets the following week.  They also have the Broncos and Miami twice still on their schedule.  This team has a legitimate shot to make the playoffs.

9. Baltimore Ravens (4-2)

If they had done what I thought they were going to do, crush the Jaguars, they’d probably be second in my rankings.  But the NFL is a pendulum league, and this week it swung the opposing way for the once hot Ravens.

Losing a really ugly game against Jacksonville in prime time raised a lot of questions about their preparation and if Joe Flacco can really make this team a title contender.  Flacco has to complete more than 52% of his passes.   I really think he has the ability but must be more decisive and intelligent with his throws.

10. Chicago Bears (4-3)

I don’t like it, but if Chicago continues to realize that Matt Forte is pretty damn good, this is a dangerous team.  Ideally they need to limit Jay Cutler to twenty-five throws per game and work a ton out of play-action to both minimize his turnovers and his exposure to hits, though I’m not sure Mike Martz would ever be so logical.

11. Detroit Lions (5-2)

More than losing two-straight, what concerns me is the general trend going on with this team.  They are so reliant on the big play to Calvin Johnson and don’t have really anything resembling a feature back in the running game.  Also, surprisingly, considering their deep and talented defensive line rotation, they rank twenty-eighth in stopping the run.  This is a really dangerous and talented team, but they have some obvious holes that we glossed over in the hysteria of their 5-0 start.

12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)

I think they’re probably too young on offense to sustain their winning ways all season, but their defense is for real.  This fast, bruising, and talented defense will keep this team in a lot of games.

--from @AdamHocking

Week 7 Game Notes

Panthers over Redskins

Adam

• Cam Newton is a better athlete than Michael Vick.  Before you overreact, let me explain.  No, he’s not as fast as or as agile, but he’s easily the second-fastest starting quarterback in the league, and he combines that rare athleticism with the size and strength of Ben Roethlisberger.  Vick is as fast as anyone, but he’s barely 6-feet tall and 210 pounds soaking wet.  When you factor strength into the equation, Newton is the better overall athlete.
• The thing Newton was knocked for coming into the draft, his lack of accuracy has been one of his biggest strengths.  The kid is accurate, strong, poised: the complete package.  The Panthers hit a home run with this pick so long as Newton keeps working to improve.
• Steve Smith apparently just needed a quarterback; he’s the best receiver in football right now.
• The Redskins now look a lot more like the team we thought they would be heading into the season than what we thought they could be sitting at 3-1.  They don’t have a legit quarterback, and they lack playmakers. The defense though has some really special players.

Eric

• So, there’s John Beck for ya, Washington.
• This game was about Cam Newton though.  (Who else on Carolina could it possibly be about?)  Newton threw for 256 yards and a touchdown, rushed for another score, and only had five incompletions on the day.
• Newton has 7 rushing touchdowns through seven games.  The Panthers as a team rushed for 7 touchdowns all of last season.

Browns over Seahawks

Adam

• Let’s all just agree that this game never happened.

Eric

• I’m not even going to touch this one.

Falcons over Lions

Adam

• A really big win for the Falcons, they are too talented to linger around the .500 mark.
• Tony Gonzalez is now second only to Jerry Rice all-time in receptions, what a career for a guy who is still one of the best tight ends in the league in his fifteenth season.
• The Lions are developing an edge that I like.  They were feisty with both the Niners and Falcons in consecutive weeks, and I think that comes from fiery (read: maniacal) head coach Jim Schwartz.
• Calvin Johnson is so damn athletic, it’s not funny.
• If the Lions find a true feature back and a bolster the offensive line, this could be a top-2 offense in the league.

Eric

• The Upset of the Day Award goes to Atlanta for traveling to Detroit, the lions’ den, if you will, and knocking off the previously red hot Detroit Lions, who have now lost two-straight.
• The Falcons leaned on Michael Turner, who responded with 122 yards on 27 carries, so Matt Ryan wouldn’t have to do too much.
• Even with Julio Jones in the lineup, the Falcons are a running team.  Don’t forget that, Atlanta.
• In this game Tony Gonzalez moved into second place on the all-time receptions list.  Congrats, Tony.

Broncos over Dolphins

Adam

• Tim Tebow didn’t have amazing numbers, but he came through in precisely the way all of his supporters praise him for.  He was clutch, he improvised, he made plays on the run, and he made plays when it counted.  He also had one beautiful throw between triple coverage that looked like a big time, NFL-caliber pass.
• Yes, it came against a bad Dolphins team, but Tebow found a way to win.  If he keeps winning, nobody will care how pretty his spiral looks.
• The Dolphins stink.
• Tony Sporano is a dead man walking.

Eric

• For better or worse, anything the Broncos do from now on will all be attributed to Tim Tebow.
• For 54 minutes, Tebow and the Broncos couldn’t do anything against the Dolphins, but by erasing a 15-point deficit with just three minutes left to tie and force the game into overtime, that is all irrelevant.
• More than Tebow heroics I put this one on the Dolphins utterly disappearing over those waning minutes/overtime.

Jets over Chargers

Adam

• Memo to all quarterbacks: do not throw it near Darelle Revis.  He is having another monster year.
• Plaxico Burress finally broke out for the Jets, scoring three times and providing exactly what they need, a big red-zone target.
• Philip Rivers is not putting up near the numbers we are accustomed to with just an 83 passer rating.  His career rating is 96, and the past few years it’s been over 100.
• I’m not sure what is going on with him, but when he’s playing at his highest level, he’s behind only Aaron Rodgers and perhaps Tom Brady in terms of guys I’d want leading my attack.  He needs to get back to that level.

Eric

• Philip Rivers didn’t look quite right in this game.  By Rivers standards, he’s gotten off to a pretty terrible start to the season.  I hope he turns it around in the second half as I enjoy watching him put up video game numbers no matter who his receivers are.
• Plaxico Burress caught 3 touchdowns.  What is this, 2007?

Bears over Buccaneers

Adam

• Run the ball, Mike Martz.  Matt Forte is a stud, and your pass protection is awful.
• Marion Barber isn’t bad either, but he doesn’t seem to run with the same tenacity he used to.
• Jay Cutler is never going to change.  He will always make those few throws off his back foot that are just too stupid for words, and that’s why they Bears will never win a championship with Cutler leading the charge.
• Josh Freeman has not looked like the man we saw last year.

Eric

• Both quarterbacks were pretty awful in this game.  Who wasn’t awful was Matt Forte.  No player in the NFL accounts for as much of his team’s yardage as Forte, and in this game he accumulated 183 total yards and a score.
• Speaking of Forte’s touchdown, it is one of my favorite runs of the season so far.

Texans over Titans

Adam

• Arian Foster is a monster, and combined with Ben Tate, this is the best running back duo in football.
• When Andre Johnson gets back, this offense is scary.  It’s just a shame Mario Williams is out for the year.
• The Titans have been a Jekyll and Hyde team this year.  I can’t figure them out.
• Where are you Chris Johnson?

Eric

• This one wasn’t anywhere close.
• Props to Arian Foster and his 234 total yards and 3 touchdowns on the day.

Steelers over Cardinals

Adam

• Ben Roethlisberger has been playing great the past couple games.
• The AFC doesn’t seem to have a great team this year, so the combination of Steelers’ defense and Roethlisberger could be good enough to again make noise in the playoffs.
• The Cardinals fall to 1-5, and with the Rams winless at 0-6 and Seattle at 2-4, the 49ers might not have to win more than two additional games to take the division.  Honestly, do the Seahawks, Rams, or Cardinals strike you as teams that could win any more than six games?  That’s a stretch-and-a-half.

Eric

• After throwing for five touchdowns a week ago, Ben Roethlisberger continued to torch opposing secondaries, this week going for 361 yards and 3 scores.

Chiefs over Raiders

Adam

• The Chiefs have recovered from an awful start, but Matt Cassel just is not a very good quarterback.  Kansas City is still a very limited team.
• The Raiders gave up way too much for Carson Palmer.  Even if he plays well for a couple of years for them, he’s been on the decline ever since he tore up his knee in that 2005 playoff game.
• Oakland may still be a threat in the AFC West once Palmer gets a week or two to really get integrated, but once again the division seems like it’s the Chargers’ to lose.

Eric

• On a weekend with a whole heap of bad quarterback performances, this game took the cake.
• In a winning effort, Matt Cassel finished with a 38.3 passer rating.
• On the other side, the Raiders used three quarterbacks, all to equally dreadful effect.
• Kyle Boller started the game and was pulled after throwing three interceptions.  His passer rating was 22.3.
• Replacing Boller was someone who had been with the Raiders less than a week and hadn’t been with any team since the end of last season, Carson Palmer.  Palmer completed just 8/21 passes; like Boller threw three interceptions, one of which was returned by Kansas City for a touchdown, also like Boller; and compiled a whopping 17.4 rating.
• Terrelle Pryor came in for one play in the middle of the game and committed a false start.

Cowboys over Rams

Adam

• Dallas wasn’t as bad as their 2-3 record indicated coming into this game, and they just needed a confidence booster game to get back on track in the wide open NFC East.  Beating the Rams by 27 is just what the doctor ordered.
• DeMarco Murray looked like a freak at Oklahoma but seemed a bit of an afterthought as an NFL prospect.  He now holds the Cowboy single game rushing record, ahead of Emmitt Smith and Tony Dorsett.
• The Rams are every bit as bad as 0-6.

Eric

• Wow, DeMarco Murray.  The rookie third-round pick from Oklahoma rushed for 253 yards, which included an impressive 91-yard touchdown scamper on his first carry of the game.

Packers over Vikings

Adam

• This game was closer than it should have been, only because Green Bay receivers dropped passes.  Still, any way you slice it, 7-0 is an incredible start to a season, especially for a defending Super Bowl champ.
• Aaron Rodgers is not real.  His passer rating on the season is 126.  The next closest is Tom Brady at 105.  In Rodgers’ worst statistical game this year, Week 3 at Chicago, he went 28/38 for 297 yards with 3 touchdowns and a pick, a 111 rating.
• Packer receivers lead the league in dropped passes, making Rodgers’ staggering numbers that much more impressive.
• Who cares about the Vikings?

Eric

• What’s left at 7-0 besides some nitpicks?  As might be expected, the Packer defense is behind the Packer offense, but I didn’t think it would look like this.  27 points to a rookie quarterback-led, outside threat-less offense?  175 rushing yards to Adrian Peterson?  Dom Capers has some work to do.
• Aaron Rodgers is the first player to ever post passer ratings of 110+ in each of a season’s first seven games.
• More on Rodgers: he went 17/20 passing in the first half.  Two of his incompletions were drops from his receivers; the third was a spike to stop the clock on the two-minute drill.
• Christian Ponder made his first NFL start and looked okay.  He still has a long way to go.
• Like the last time he faced a rookie quarterback, playing the Panthers Week 2, Charles Woodson intercepted Ponder twice.
• Minnesota blows another halftime lead as they were up 17-13 at the break.

Saints over Colts

Adam

• Florida Atlantic really had no shot against Alabama…oh wait, this was an NFL Score?  Yikes, 62-7 should never happen on a professional football field.

Eric

• Ouch.
• Curtis Painter trying to do a Peyton Manning impression (making all his play calls at the line of scrimmage, receivers’ routes and protection) is not a good strategy.
• The Colts are the only team in the league to be outgained in every game.

Jaguars over Ravens

Adam

• This seems to be the story of the Ravens over the past few years: tantalize us with offseason additions and the potential growth of Joe Flacco, yet the offense never quite gels, and the defense, while still powerful, continues to age.
• I like Flacco, like his arm, his demeanor, and I think he can improve, but he has to become more accurate and more adept at reading and manipulating defenses.
• As Terrell Suggs said post-game, it's not all that complicated.  Get Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin the ball more often, and let the defense do its thing.
• If Jacksonville had any aerial attack whatsoever, they could be a dangerous team, but this is a passing league and rookie Blaine Gabbert's still learning the ropes.  Jacksonville ranks eleventh in rushing offense, and their defense is top-10 in both passing and rushing yards allowed per game.
• This was a nice win for the Jags, but this team is in full rebuild mode.  I like their defense up the middle with Tyson Alualu, Terrence Knighton, and Paul Posluszny.  Maurice Jones-Drew is a great player, and Gabbert may develop into a good starter, but overall the cupboard is pretty bare.
  

Eric

• If aliens came to Earth and asked me, “What’s so great about football?” this is the absolute last game I would show them.  Well, scratch that.  This Sunday’s putrid Browns-Seahawks contest would be the last game.  Jaguars-Ravens would be second-to-last.

--from @AdamHocking and @jeuneski