2011 NFL Draft Preview: Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings

#11 Houston Texans

What They Need: It’s hard to nail down the needs of this team.  New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips runs a 3-4 scheme, which would seem to displace the Texans’ best player, defensive end Mario Williams.  I would bet Houston will mix and match with some 3-4 and some 4-3.  Either way, Houston needs help at defensive tackle, outside linebacker, corner, and safety.  They were dead last at defending the pass a year ago and just average against the run.  Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing provide a great, young defensive nucleus, but they need support.  The Texans’ 2007 top pick Amobi Okoye has not lived up to potential at defensive tackle.  Kareem Jackson was a rookie last year at corner and looked like it.  He should be much better this coming year, but he needs another talented cover man opposite him.  Offensively the Texans are very talented.  Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the game, Arian Foster won the rushing title last year, and quarterback Matt Schaub has proven to be a top ten passer.  The offensive line has been much maligned through the years, but when a team ranks fourth in passing and seventh in rushing league-wide, the line can’t be that bad.

Who They Might Pick: Though the secondary is the Texans most glaring weakness, I doubt that Prince Amukamara will last to pick #11.  Patrick Peterson will also be long gone.  Colorado corner Jimmy Smith is a definite possibility here.  Standing 6’2”, he ran an impressive 4.42 at the combine and benched 225 pounds 24 times.  My guy Stephen Paea has been falling down draft boards lately, but he’s a possibility as well.  Lately draftniks are really enamored with the behemoth defensive tackle from Baylor, Phil Taylor.  He’s listed at 6’3” and 334 pounds and has surprising agility.  Not just a space-filler, Taylor was very productive last year, recording 62 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks.  If Houston is really committed to the 3-4, then outside pass rushers will be a high priority as well.  I would guess Cushing and Ryans would be the inside linebackers in that system, so help would be needed on the edge.  Robert Quinn from North Carolina could fall here, or Aldon Smith, a pass rusher from Missouri.  Adrian Clayborn might be a good catch-all pick for Houston, since they’re in transition.  He can play 3-4 end or 4-3 defensive tackle, push the pocket, and stuff the run.  Wisconsin's JJ Watt could fill that role as well.

My Advice: This is probably the toughest team yet for me to counsel.  The defensive side of the ball is where the pick has to be.  Corner is the biggest need, but the correct prospect might not be there, and defensive line is another big issue.  Since Houston was so god-awful against the pass last year, I just can’t justify them drafting a run stuffing defensive tackle, even though they certainly need one.  Antonio Smith and Williams are plenty big enough for to play end in the 3-4, so that takes Clayborn and Watt out of my equation.  By process of elimination, I’m left with the corner from Colorado, Jimmy Smith, and the two pass rushers, Quinn and Aldon Smith.  Since the Texans spent their first pick last year on a corner, I’m guessing they will go pass rusher with this selection.  Though Quinn projects higher, I’ll go with the guy who actually played last year, Aldon Smith from Missouri. Despite some injuries, he’s a great athlete and seems suited to play outside in the 3-4 system.

At pick eleven, the Houston Texans take Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri.

#12 Minnesota Vikings

What they Need: With the supposed, alleged, maybe happening, who knows for sure, possible retirement of Brett Favre, quarterback is unmistakably a need for Minnesota.  The problem is Newton and Gabbert should be gone by this point on draft day.  Other than quarterback, there aren’t too many needs offensively.  Adrian Peterson is the most imposing offensive player in the league, Sidney Rice is a star who should be back and healthy, and Percy Harvin is as talented a receiver as there is.  Visanthe Shiancoe is a solid tight end as well.  The offensive line is aging and could use some help, but it’s still an above average unit.  Left tackle Bryant Mckinnie is thought of as a tremendous player by some, a worthless waste of space others.  I fall somewhere in between; he’s a fine run blocker that sometimes doesn’t move well enough against great pass rushers.  Guard Steve Hutchinson has lost something with age, but is still one of the better players in the league at his position.  John Sullivan is unspectacular at center, but solid, and Anthony Herrera can move people in the run game.  I’m pretty sure right tackle Phil Loadholt is an alien life-form; no human should be that big (6’8”, 350 pounds).  He can be very good with further development.  Defensively the Vikings saw the first signs of decline in their dominant defensive line last year.  Maybe the best single unit anywhere in the league over the past few years, the Vikes’ front four looked average in 2010.  Pat Williams is plainly too old—age 38—to dominate anymore.  Kevin Williams is still a great player, but he needs a guy like Jared Allen to take up double teams.  Allen started last year horribly but really came on late and finished the season with 11 sacks.  He’s only 28 and still a monster, no signs of decline.  Ray Edwards is a good end opposite Allen.  Led by the excellent Chad Greenway, the linebacking corps is pretty good.  E.J. Henderson is great against the run, but he has an injury history and has reached the deadly age of 30.  They could use an infusion of talent here, but they run the 4-3 and a linebacker of that style worthy of a top-15 pick simply does not exist.  The secondary could really use some help.  Antoine Winfield should probably move to safety.  He’s still a great tackler, but he can’t cover one-on-one anymore.  Chris Cook looks to be a nothing more than a decent player after being drafted high in the second round last year, but maybe he just needs time to develop.  Minnesota’s safeties aren’t special either, but there aren’t many great safety prospects in this year’s draft.

Who They Might Pick: Boy, if this team could find a passer, they could be right back amongst the league’s best.  That’s the reality for Minnesota, and that’s why I think they’ll try to find a proven veteran quarterback rather than reaching for Jake Locker at this spot.  I’m going to assume the Vikes plan on making a move for Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb, or Carson Palmer.  With quarterback off the draft checklist, defensive tackle, linebacker, corner, and safety remain as principal areas of need.  If they fell in love with an offensive lineman here, that would be a solid pick too.  Mike Pouncey from Florida would represent a definitive upgrade to either the center or right guard positions.  If they look defensive tackle I think Taylor from Baylor should be the pick.  He’s a Pat Williams clone, just 15 years younger.  He would help keep blockers from doubling Kevin Williams or Allen and could recreate the impenetrable run defense the Vikings once had.  Like I said, there won’t be a 4-3 linebacker that’s worth this high of a pick, so that’s out of the question.  The same can be said for safety.  Jimmy Smith, the corner from Colorado, would be a great fit.  He’s a dynamic athlete with great size, speed, and strength.  Everything you want in a corner physically, Jimmy Smith is fully capable of competing athletically with the league’s best receivers.  Pairing Smith with Cook would give the Vikings a set of tall, physical corners.

My Advice: It comes down to the corner Jimmy Smith or the defensive tackle Taylor. From my point of view Minnesota has been searching for a lock-down corner for years now and can’t pass up such a talented prospect.  Jimmy Smith should be the pick.  The defensive line is plenty strong to be a good unit next year, even minus Pat Williams who is no longer a force.  Getting pressure on the quarterback shouldn’t be too much of an issue, but covering receivers has been a big problem for this team.  Take Smith, and if he lives up to his talent, the Vikings will be very happy and much improved.

With the twelfth pick, the Minnesota Vikings select Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado.

--from Adam

(first image from zimbio.com, second from dallascowboystimes.com)

Let's Play Two: The 2011 MLB Season Preview

With Opening Day fast approaching, I’d like to take a look at our most neglected of the major sports here at Hill 364, professional baseball.  The baseball offseason is a dynamic place where players come and go like hotcakes flying off the hot stove.

But even with such rampant player movement grabbing headlines, the balance of power shifts only so much.  In the salary cap-free world of baseball, the good teams will seemingly always be good, and the bad teams will seemingly always be bad—just look at Pittsburgh’s infamous streak of eighteen straight losing seasons—all depending on who has the money.  The teams that can afford to pay free agents’ exorbitant salaries will forever have a leg up on their small market competitors.  The large market teams can bring in the players they want and essentially buy themselves a championship, or at least a very competitive team.  On the other end of the spectrum, the low payroll teams have to acquire talent—both through the draft and by trading away their best players for prospects—and develop it over time to compete in the major leagues.  There are no quick payoffs, and the glory years can be short-lived as well.  Often as soon as these teams’ core players become good enough to sustain a successful ball club, they have to be traded away or let walk as free agents because they get too expensive.

We’ve seen all of these examples this offseason—the rich get richer, small market teams build themselves up, and small market teams tear themselves down.

After putting together perhaps the best offseason of any team, the Boston Red Sox are the preseason favorite to take the always hotly contested AL East crown.  It would be Boston’s first division title since 2007 after falling behind the Tampa Bay Rays and the hated New York Yankees over the past three seasons.  The marquee offseason move in all of baseball was Boston’s trade for Adrian Gonzalez, a power-hitting first baseman and an example of a player with too excessive a salary for his low payrolled former team, the San Diego Padres.  Gonzalez consistently hits for a .300 average, notches 30 homers, drives in 100 runs, and plays Gold Glove defense.  He could be an All Star for any team in baseball.  Protected by the lineup in Boston, he could be the MVP.

That move alone could have made Boston the offseason winner, but they followed that by signing former Tampa Bay All Star Carl Crawford the week after acquiring Gonzalez.  Crawford has speed to burn and is a perfect leadoff man if Jacoby Ellsbury falters at all.  Also a Gold Glover, Crawford is a .300 hitter that can steal 60 bases and hit 15-20 home runs at the top of the lineup.  He will be a tremendous table setter alongside former AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, and between Crawford and Ellsbury, fly balls might never touch outfield grass.  The Red Sox also bolstered their bullpen by bringing in fireballer Bobby Jenks from the White Sox and another former Ray, Dan Wheeler.

The departures of Crawford and Wheeler lead me to the next offseason development: breaking up the reigning AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays.  Though their recent success has greatly turned around the culture of Tampa baseball, it did nothing to improve the Rays’ revenue stream.  For a team that draws less than 20,000 fans to its stadium most nights, their $72 million payroll was unsustainable.  Thus, 2011 marks Tampa’s offseason on the chopping block.  They lost two of their most important hitters in Crawford and Carlos Pena; another nice lefty in Brad Hawpe; lost good defense up the middle in Jason Batrlett; an above average starter in Matt Garza; and the majority of one of 2010’s best bullpens in Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Wheeler, Grant Balfour, Chad Qualls, Randy Choate, and Lance Cormier.  With so much talent cast off, reaching .500 will be a stiff challenge for a team that was in the World Series just three years ago.

Switching from the AL East to the NL East, I’m struck by how the two divisions parallel each other.  The Phillies, by luring Cliff Lee into their rotation and away from his suitors in the Bronx, have in effect become the Yankees of the National League.  “How do we get back to the World Series after going to two straight and then only making the NLCS last year?  Why, we spend more money of course.  Let’s just bring in the biggest name on the free agent market and hope for the best.”  In doing so, the Phillies created one of the deepest, most formidable rotations of all time with Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels.  Sure that’s a great assemblage of arms, but to me it stinks of “we’re buying our ring” sentiment.

To continue the comparison, the Braves are kind of like the Red Sox in that they’re the other high payroll team in the division that doesn’t draw quite the same acrimony the Phillies and Yankees do.

Next come two sets of geographically linked teams.  The Marlins and Rays reflect each other quite strikingly in that both are Florida-based clubs—a market unsympathetic to seemingly most of its professional sports teams—that put together a run every once in a while, yet as soon as they taste success have to dismantle everything. 

The Nationals and Orioles also share similarites.  Both are low payroll teams who look up at their deep-pocketed brethren and wonder if they will ever get their shot.  Yet both squads have some building blocks for the future.  Washington’s Stephen Strasburg is electric; hopefully he comes back from Tommy John surgery ready to strike out the world.  The Orioles actually had a very promising offseason keeping Buck Showalter at the helm and bringing in Mark Reynolds, Vladimir Guerrero, JJ Hardy, Derrek Lee, and Kevin Gregg.  If young talent like Matt Wieters can blossom around those veteran acquisitions, the Orioles could take third place behind Boston and New York.

To complete the Eastern juxtaposition, the Blue Jays are the Mets.  Sorry Toronto.  It’s not unfounded though.  The Blue Jays have done their fair share of overpaying the wrong players in a bid to spend with the Yanks and Sox.  I’m looking especially at the BJ Ryan blunder and Vernon Wells massively underperforming relative to his gargantuan contract, a salary Toronto dumped on Anaheim this offseason.  Things are looking up Toronto!  The Mets perennially are just a bad mix of overpaid, under-talented egos that people think should be good just because they play in New York.

The final offseason situation I wanted to look at is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.  If the Red Sox had the best offseason, the Brewers came in a close second by bringing in former Royal star Zach Greinke and former Blue Jay hurler Shawn Marcum.  I’d consider the Brewers as one of the small market teams that’s been developing its homegrown talent and is ready to do something with it.  They’re finally in the position to start building up with some outside talent, to bring in some guys to support their former farmhands Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.  Taking advantage of Greinke’s impending free agency, Milwaukee took him and the final year of his contract off the small market Royals’ hands.  Kansas City just wanted to get something for the former Cy Young winner, a guy they would have no way to pay when he becomes a free agent next winter.  Milwaukee gets a bona fide ace—an exceedingly rare entity—to pair with another terrific, homegrown incumbent at the top of its rotation in Yovanni Gallardo.  Add to that the freshly acquired Marcum and the big free agent signing from last year Randy Wolf, and the Brewers have one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball.

After breaking down what went down this offseason, Adam, what are you looking forward to actually seeing this season?

--Eric

Honestly Eric, what I can’t wait to see is something that you probably detest.  I cannot wait to see just how good the Phillies can be with their Four Horsemen rotation.  I can’t wait to see how good Boston’s lineup of Crawford, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, et al. can be.  I don’t disagree one bit that these teams are buying their way to elite status, and I don’t really like that baseball works this way, but I also can’t turn away from seeing just how good all that talent can be on one roster.  The Phillies should be historically dominant with their pitching and should feature a damn good offense to boot, as long as Chase Utley can get healthy.  The Red Sox can do everything offensively: run, hit for average, hit for power, steal, etc.  If Boston and Philly met in the World Series, it would be an epic standoff between an unreal pitching staff and one of the most complete offenses assembled in recent memory.  The Phillies’ and Red Sox’s rosters put the Yankees’ to shame.  That’s how talented these two teams are.

Another thing I’m excited to see is the Nationals’ number one overall pick Bryce Harper.  He probably won’t be in the majors right away, but he is so highly regarded as a prospect that he may get there at some point this year.  I remember reading a Sports Illustrated article about him two years ago that said he is baseball’s LeBron James, only more highly regarded.  The Nationals landed two once in a lifetime prospects in back-to-back years with Strasburg and Harper.  I always love getting to know new stars—the future of the sports I love so much—and Harper has me chomping at the bit.

Finally, I’m excited as a Brewers fan to watch what should be the best Brew Crew of my lifetime.  “Should be,” is of course the operative phrase.  Greinke and Gallardo can be two of the ten best pitchers in all of baseball if they play to their potential.  Marcum posted a 3.54 ERA in the potent AL East.  What does that equate to in the NL Central?  A 2.80?  Maybe.  Randy Wolf was brought in last year to be the Brewers’ second starter, which was asking a bit much, but he wasn’t bad in the role.  Now Wolf represents one of the best fourth starters in all of baseball.  I expect the fifth spot in the rotation to experience some shuffling, but with this top four, that shouldn’t be a major problem.

Add to the Brewers’ new and improved pitching staff a young and potent offense, and Milwaukee should be favored to win their division.  Rickie Weeks is a rising star.  He was the second overall pick in the 2003 draft, but never lived up to his billing until last year.  Weeks is capable of being the best second baseman in the league, at least offensively.  Then of course, the Brewers boast the lethal 1-2 punch of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, a duo as productive as any pair of 3-4 hitters in the league.  Round out the lineup with former All Star Corey Hart and rising force Casey McGehee, and the Brewers have the ingredients for a potent offensive attack.

--Adam

Remember when I said the balance of power shifts slowly?  The Brewers certainly put themselves in a position to be better this offseason, but I’m not ready to call them division favorites.  I don’t see them making the jump from third place to division winner in just one season.  Yes, the Reds increased their win total from 78 in 2009 to 91 last year, but their record had improved each season since 2007.  Conversely, the Brewers won 90 games in ’08, 80 in ’09, and 77 in 2010.

Every team in the Central has questions, but some clubs have more issues than others.

The Brewers—and this is my biggest worry—are still the Brewers, a team that consistently plays with inconsistency.  They’ll score 10 runs one day and then lose 2-1 the next; they don’t rattle off the 5- and 10-game win streaks that lead to division titles.  Part of their inconsistency comes from exactly what makes them so dangerous offensively.  Milwaukee’s lineup is stacked with guys that swing for the fences every plate appearance, an over-aggressiveness that leads to too many strikeouts.  There are plenty of situations where a simple base knock would do more for your team than trying to jack a long ball.

Brewer GM Doug Melvin made the moves to put together a run this year.  He had to; Fielder is likely to depart after this season as a free agent.  That doesn’t mean his moves are guaranteed winners though.  Following a Cy Young-winning campaign, expectations were high for Greinke in 2010, but his social anxiety got the better of him.  Greinke went 10-14 and had a 4.17 ERA, which is not terrible, but was a full two runs higher than the year previous.  How much pressure could really be on Greinke in Kansas City?  Now in Milwaukee people expect him to dominate?  That doesn’t seem like a recipe for success.

Elsewhere in the division we have the Reds attempting to repeat as champions, but they really did nothing this offseason to continue improving their team.  They did lock up Triple Crown threat Joey Votto, former World Series champion Bronson Arroyo, and young stalwarts Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto to long term contracts.  They didn’t bring in anyone else of note, but they didn’t really lose anyone either.  The only major loss was hard-throwing lefty penman Arthur Rhodes, who Cincinnati expects to fully replace with the 100 MPH man himself, Aroldis Chapman.

The only question for the Reds is if they have enough magic left over from last year’s roster—and the mental toughness—to go out and grab another NL Central crown in a division where practically every team improved itself this offseason.

The only team that didn’t improve itself, and maybe regressed even, was the St. Louis Cardinals.  No one thing the Cards did this offseason grabbed more headlines than not signing Albert Pujols to a long-term contract.  That sets up a significant distraction for the team moving forward.  In addition to the Pujols hoopla, St. Louis lost one of their best pitchers, Adam Wainwright, for the season to Tommy John surgery.  The Cardinals will sorely miss Wainwright, who won 39 games for them the past two seasons.  A third hole in the Cards’ sinking ship is that their top offseason acquisition, Lance Berkman, a.k.a. “Fat Elvis,” is a 35-year-old with bad knees that they expect to play every day in the outfield, where he hasn’t played since 2007.  Yeah, maybe that’ll work until they can find someone else at the trade deadline.  Doubtful.

The Chicago Cubs had a mostly favorable offseason but still don’t have the talent to make a playoff run.  Matt Garza will help the pitching staff, but he’s not an ace, which is the role Chicago’s penciled him in for.  Hopefully Carlos Zambrano can build on the success he had at the end of last season and not revert to where he was at the beginning.

The Pittsburgh Pirates continue on their perpetual rebuilding track.  So do the Astros, but at least they haven’t been at it since the early 90’s, just since their ’05 World Series run pretty much.

My NL Central Prediction:

1. Reds (88-74)

2. Brewers (84-78)

3. Cubs (81-81)

4. Cardinals (79-83)

5. Astros (74-88)

6. Pirates (63-99)

What are your predictions for the season?  Who makes the playoffs?  Who wins the World Series?

--Eric

NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers

The Reds made a nice run last year, but probably overachieved.  The Cardinals’ offense increasingly revolves around Pujols, who is great, but needs more help.  Also, the loss of Wainright is a killer.  The Cubs are in transition right now, trying to figure out exactly which pieces to move forward with.  They’ll be competitive but not playoff bound.  The Astros and Pirates suck, sorry, that’s all I have to say about them.  The Brewers signed two excellent pitchers, added some arms to their bullpen, and kept a talented, though inconsistent, offense together.  My biggest fear about Milwaukee is Eric’s point exactly, they’re the Brewers: perennial losers that are far too inconsistent.  But I think part of the offense’s problem was that they knew no matter how much they scored, Manny Parra or Jeff Suppan would give up 8 runs.  Not this year.  I think Milwaukee is clearly the division’s most talented team.

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies

They have four pitchers that could be number one starters on most teams.  Add a very talented offense, and this team should be scary good.

NL West: Colorado Rockies

I just don’t think the Giants have enough hitting to repeat last year’s success, even with their great pitching.  The Dodgers intrigue me, but they have a lot of the same faces heading into this year that didn’t get it done last year.  Ultimately, with Ubaldo Jimenez at the top of the pitching staff and Carlos Gonzalez pairing with Troy Tulowitzki to lead the Rockies lineup, I think the boys at Coors Field will have enough to take the division.

NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves

With rising star Jason Heyward holding down the lineup alongside Brian McCann, Dan Uggla, and Nate McLouth (if he can play better than last year) the offense should be pretty good.  Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson represent a dynamite 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.  Derek Lowe and Jair Jurrjens are solid pitchers as well that fill out Atlanta’s strong staff. 

AL Central: Chicago White Sox

I have too many questions about the concussion issue with Justin Morneau and the surgically repaired arm of Joe Nathan to put the Twins atop the division.  They’ll probably prove me wrong, but I can’t pick them.  I like the White Sox because Ozzie Guillen is crazy, and the lineup of Gordon Beckham, Alex Rios, Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin, Adam Dunn, and Mark Teahen could be really good.  If Jake Peavy can get back to full strength, he can make this a solid staff alongside Mark Buerhle and Edwin Jackson. 

AL East: Boston Red Sox

They’re just too good not to win the division.  The Yankees have pitching issues, and the Rays gutted their team.  This could be the first non-competitive AL East race in years. 

AL West: Texas Rangers

Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz: damn, these guys can hit.  I like the young arms in their rotation and bullpen, though losing Cliff Lee will really hurt.  If they can get something from Brandon Webb, that’d be huge. 

AL Wild Card: New York Yankees

If things are going south come July, they’ll just buy another player and right the ship.  And besides, what would the playoffs be without New York? 

World Series Prediction: The Philadelphia Phillies defeat the Boston Red Sox.

Just too much pitching for anyone to beat Philly this year, and it’s not as if this team can’t hit.  The Phillies might be getting ready to have a historically great year.

--Adam

NBA Power Poll #20

1. Los Angeles Lakers (53-20): Still just one loss since the All Star break, that is unreal.  Catching the Spurs for the one seed was once a pipe dream; now it’s a moderate possibility.  San Antonio has lost three straight, and LA is just four games back.  Kobe Bryant’s making a late MVP push, leading the best team in the league and putting up huge scoring numbers (42, 37, and 30 points in his last three games).

2. Chicago Bulls (53-19): Only slightly less hot than the Lakers, the Bulls are steamrolling towards the top seed in the East.  Chicago has a two game lead over Boston, their nearest competitor, with just ten games to play.

3. Miami Heat (51-22): The Heat have been streaking all year.  Either they’re red hot, winning ten games in a row, or they’re on a five game slide.  That kind of inconsistency is indicative of a team still finding its identity.  If they find it in the playoffs, they can beat anybody.  Last night against the Rockets, Chris Bosh had 31 points and 12 rebounds, LeBron James had 33 points and 10 rebounds, and Wade had 30 points and 11 rebounds.  I’m not sure three teammates have ever had that big of a game together.  This team has an enormous ceiling; they have just as deep a basement as well.

4. San Antonio Spurs (57-16): It’s hard to pin this team down right now.  Tim Duncan is out, probably until the playoffs, resting a bum ankle.  Still, they shouldn’t lose three straight games, especially with the Lakers on their heels.  Despite their great record, I don’t know if this team can truly win a championship this year because of their age.  The playoffs are a grind, and if they sustain one key injury, I don’t think they’ll overcome it.

5. Boston Celtics (51-21): Caught and passed by the Bulls, the Celtics are playing really flat lately.  They’re just 5-5 in their last ten games, and Rajon Rondo hasn’t been the same since Kendrick Perkins was traded.  Those two were very close, so I wonder if Rondo hasn’t been able to refocus since the deal went down.  For the month of March, Rondo is averaging just 8 points and 9 assists, down from 10 and 12 on the year.  Keep in mind though, that last year Boston went 27-27 in their last 54 games before making it all the way to Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

6. Oklahoma City Thunder (48-24): Winners of three straight and nine of their last ten, the Thunder look to be perhaps the Lakers' biggest competition in the West.  Perkins is doing exactly what the Thunder want: scoring 6 points, snatching 8 rebounds, and defending the paint.  This team was served well by facing the Lakers last year in the playoffs and should enter this year’s tournament fearing absolutely no one.

7. Dallas Mavericks (52-21): Look, this team is good, but that’s it.  They don’t have a complete player anywhere on their roster.  Jason Kidd is a passer and spot up shooter that can’t defend anybody, nor can he get in the lane effectively.  Dirk Nowitzki is a great scorer, but as a 7-footer you have to impact the game on more than just jump shots.  Nowitzki can’t guard opposing big men, and he’s too slow to check smaller forwards on the perimeter.  Tyson Chandler has been great for the Mavs, but he’s a rebounder and shot blocker; that’s the extent of his game.  Jason Terry is long in the tooth, and is really only a scorer that doesn’t impact the game elsewhere.  This team is old, slow, and with the exception of Chandler, not athletic at all.  Mavs fans drink the cool-aid every year, thinking that an outstanding regular season will translate into playoff success, but this group just isn’t built to beat the elite teams in the league.

8. Orlando Magic (47-26): Like I told you, the eighth spot is all theirs.  Don’t you dare try taking them out of it.

9. Denver Nuggets (44-29): They’re like a younger version of the Mavericks: lots of nice role players, shooters, and a high scoring outfit, but going nowhere in the playoffs.  Still, they’ve been great without Carmelo Anthony, and George Karl deserves Coach of the Year consideration just for that.

+1. Marcus Thornton: Thornton averaged just 11 points per game when he was with the Hornets, but with increased playing time coming to Sacramento, he’s exploded, averaging 23 points, 4 assists, and 5 rebounds per game in March.  Sometimes guys just need an opportunity to shine, and that’s what Thornton is getting.

--from Adam

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins

#9 Dallas Cowboys

What They Need: It’s always interesting when a talented team that underachieved the previous year picks this high in the draft.  I get the feeling that with the correct selection, the Cowboys could be right back in contention for a deep playoff run.  Offensively, Dallas has no need for the skill positions.  Tony Romo is a little older, but he's still in his prime as one of the top-10 quarterbacks in the league.  Dez Bryant looks like a budding superstar, and Miles Austin is a Pro Bowl-level player.  Jason Witten is aging, but is still very good.  Felix Jones is a tremendous talent at the running back position, but he’s always injured.  Marion Barber is a bruiser, but he’s been banged up as well and has lost a step. Drafting a running back here would be an outside possibility.  It would be a fun pick for the fans, but it’s not a pressing need.  The offensive line by contrast, is a huge area of need.  Marc Colombo is getting on in years and has never been stellar. Alex Barron is an embarrassment when forced into action, and Doug Free is largely unproven.  Kyle Kosier is probably their most solid lineman, but as is the theme, he's 32 and not getting younger.  Next to Kosier plays aging center Andre Gurode.  The other guard, Leonard Davis, is 32 but he moves like he’s 42.  The line desperately needs an infusion of youth and athleticism.  Defensively the Cowboys run a 3-4, just keep that in mind moving forward here.  Their front three is solid, with Jay Ratliff the only standout. Though Ratliff plays the nose, he’s slightly undersized for that position and could move to end if Dallas drafted a big nose tackle with this pick. The inside linebackers aren’t special, but they’re solid enough.  There wouldn’t be a middle linebacker prospect worthy of the ninth pick any way.  In terms of pass rush, when you have DeMarcus Ware, that’s all you need.  Anthony Spencer brings some nice pressure opposite him, though anyone playing opposite Ware will get some sack opportunities.  In the secondary Terence Newman is still a good cover man, but at 32 is getting old.  Mike Jenkins, who was so good two years ago, took a step back last year.  I view that as an aberration, indicative of a struggling team.  Jenkins is really talented and only 25.  The safety position is weak but won’t be addressed this high in the proceedings.  The Cowboys' main need areas are offensive line, defensive line, middle linebacker, and safety.  Running back and corner are outside possibilities for this pick.

Who They Might Pick: We’re starting to move to the second tier of prospects at this point in the draft, not to say there aren’t really good players available.  Given who’ll be available, they should address either the offensive or defensive line.  If they go with offensive line, they’ll take a tackle; guards and centers are a rarity among top ten picks.  The offensive tackles to choose from should be USC’s Tyron Smith, Colorado’s Nate Solder, and Boston College’s Anthony Costanzo.  I leave Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi off the list because he’s a plodding, run blocking tackle.  The Boys' priority has to be athleticism.  If they go with defensive line, the pick here should be Stephen Paea from Oregon State, though Corey Liuget from Illinois and Phil Talyor from Baylor are possibilities as well.

My Advice: Take the USC tackle Tyron Smith.  He’s a great athlete who should start at left tackle right away, allowing Doug Free to move to right tackle.  That would represent two young and athletic bookend tackles to help protect Romo, while Kosier, Gurode, and Davis blast open holes in the middle.  That trio in the middle of the offensive line can be really good, but they have to be surrounded by athletic tackles, or the whole offensive line is too slow to pass protect.  In drafting Smith you make the whole offensive line better, allowing Romo, Felix, Bryant, Austin, and Witten to flourish.

At the ninth pick, the Dallas Cowboys select Tyron Smith, OT, USC.

#10 Washington Redskins

What They Need: Can you draft a new owner?  I know, I’m hilarious, now settle down so you can read the rest of this.  Prevailing logic is that Donovan McNabb will not be a Redskin next year, and that leaves Rex Grossman.  So the next chain of logic would say, they need a quarterback, badly.  Grossman is horrible, and if he’s your starter, you won't win more than 5 games.  Their running back position is equally dire.  Clinton Portis is now gone and Ryan Torain is their feature back.  Receiver is, well, awful as well.  Anthony Armstrong is their best target, and two years ago he was playing in the Arena League.  The offensive line is mostly a patchwork.  Last year’s top pick Trent Williams should be a very good player at tackle.  Opposite him is Jammal Brown, a good player as well.  The middle of the line is weak.  Defensively the Skins run a 3-4, which is the reason Albert Haynesworth has been so ineffective and so unhappy. Haynesworth is not in Washington’s plans moving forward, leaving the rest of their defensive line is suspect.  London Fletcher is still a really good inside linebacker, but he’s 35 years old.  Pass rush specialist Brian Orakpo is probably the best player on the entire team.  Their cornerbacks are so-so.  DeAngelo Hall has great games and terrible games, and Carlos Rogers is solid in coverage but can’t intercept a ball.  All Phillip Buchanon brings to the table is speed.  Safety is probably the strength of the team, which is not a sign of a very good club.  LaRon Landry is a monster; he could be the best safety in the league very soon.  Chris Horton is an athletic and talented player next to Landry.  So, they need a quarterback, a running back, offensive line help, receivers, defensive linemen, linebackers, and corners.  Wow.

Who They Might Pick: I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington traded down from this slot to accrue more selections and address their multiple needs.  I would flatout expect them to trade down if Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton are gone and they don’t love Jake Locker.  I know coach Mike Shanahan wants to draft and groom a young signal caller, but it has to be the right guy.  Locker really played poorly last year, couldn’t raise his team to a high level, and struggled with accuracy at the combine.  We’ve seen in recent drafts that winning and accuracy are absolutely premium in evaluating a quarterback.  I cannot imagine Locker going this high.  Their next most pressing needs are receiver, defensive line, offensive line and cornerback.  I don’t think there’s a corner worthy of the 10th pick if Prince Amukamara and Patrick Peterson are gone.  That leaves the guy I’ve been name dropping for the last few teams, Stephen Paea, as a strong possibility.  Julio Jones would also be a nice pick here.  He would add huge talent to a horrible corps of pass catchers and would provide whoever the quarterback is with a nice target.  JJ Watt from Wisconsin might be a fit as a 3-4 defensive end.  He’s a big, strong, energetic player that has a true knack for making impact plays.  He’s the type of guy who may not be a star, but will almost certainly be a positive force for your football team.  And maybe without another great direction to go in, Watt could be the guy.  Center Mike Pouncey from Florida could also be a good pick, his brother, Maurkice, made the Pro Bowl last year as a rookie also at center.  Pouncey would give the Skins three talented lineman to build around, and would set a nice foundation for, again, whoever they find to take snaps.

My Advice: Take Mike Pouncey from Florida.  If Washington drafts Julio Jones they could ruin him by throwing him on the field without a competent quarterback.  If they pick defense, they won’t be setting the table very well for their eventual signal caller.  Some scouts like Mike Pouncey more than his brother; if that’s the case this guy should go in the top-5, but as a center, he won’t.  Trent Williams, Pouncey, and Jamal Brown would be a nice core for the offensive line, and would give the whole offense a foundation to build from.

With the tenth selection, the Washington Redskins take Mike Pouncey, C, Florida.

--from Adam

(first image from zimbio.com, second from giantsgab.com)

2011 NFL Draft Preview: San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans

#7 San Francisco 49ers

What They Need: From the outside looking in, it’s easy to say, “The Niners have been horrible because of Alex Smith.  They have to draft a quarterback.”  I can tell you though that San Francisco is petrified of missing on another first round signal caller.  Most of the fan base would rather add a veteran via free agency and use this top pick on a more sure fire prospect than Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton.  That isn’t to say I completely agree with that sentiment.  New coach Jim Harbaugh is supposedly a master at developing quarterbacks.  If he got his hands on an athlete like Newton, who knows what he could turn him in to.  The rest of the 49er offense shouldn’t require much attention.  The offensive line starts three recent first round picks and two second rounders amongst Joe Staley, Mike Iupati, David Baas, Chilo Rachal, and Anthony Davis.  Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis are talented, young targets on the outside, but their growth has been limited by sporadic quarterback play.  Defensively the Niners are slightly overrated, but they have some very good players.  The defensive front is stout and Patrick Willis is a superstar, but the rest is suspect.  Pass rush is often absent, and pass coverage was atrocious at times last year.  Nate Clements is all but done, so corner is a major need.

Who They Might Pick: The Niners have too many blatant holes to make a luxury pick like AJ Green or Julio Jones.  A shutdown corner, major pass rusher, or perhaps their quarterback of the future are the only logical positions on which to spend this selection.  If San Fran loves either Newton or Gabbert, and their man happens to be on the board, they should probably take him.  If you love a quarterback in the draft and you don’t have a good one on your roster, you have to take the plunge and pick the passer.  That said, I don’t know how the Niners feel about Gabbert’s and Newton’s prospects.  Patrick Peterson should be gone by this spot, but if he’s not, I can’t envision the Niners picking anyone else.  Prince Amukamara should still be on the board at this point; he would be a very nice fall-back selection.  Amukamara is an excellent cover man with tremendous smarts and experience.  The knock on him was a perceived lack of speed, but he ran a sub 4.4 at the combine and effectively erased those doubts.  Von Miller and Robert Quinn would be the choices if San Fran fancies an edge rusher with this pick, and Miller is rated slightly higher at this point.  If Marcel Dareus or Nick Fairley are still dangling at this spot in the draft, the Niners would probably consider adding either as a great value pick.  Their defensive line is solid, but it’s aging and not truly dynamic, so Fairley or Dareus would fit a need (albeit one less pressing).

My Advice: Looking at my players available the choice comes down to the corner Amukamara or the pass rushers Miller and Quinn.  Prince Amukamara is a surer prospect than either of the sack masters, so I’d go with the Nebraska corner in this slot.  He’s smart, can start right away, and will improve this defense tremendously.

With the 7th pick, the San Francisco 49ers take Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska.

#8 Tennessee Titans

What They Need:  The Titans are a really interesting team in this year’s draft.  They pick high enough that a lot of mega prospects should be lingering on their board, but it’s tough to say where the Titans want to go with this selection.  They have a new coaching regime, and I wonder if they’re hesitant to consider Newton after the headaches of the Vince Young era, another unproven passer who was a mega-star in college (I assume Young won’t be with the Titans next year).   I think Newton will have a better career than Young has, but I’d still be unsure if I were the Titans.  Still, there’s no doubt quarterback will be a need for the now Jeff Fisher-less franchise, and Newton may be the best signal caller available.  Kenny Britt is a really talented wideout, and obviously Chris Johnson is an elite running back.  They could use another offensive playmaker on the outside, so receiver could be an option.  The offensive line is good but not great, so they won’t invest a top pick in an already solid unit.  Defensively, there are some very good players on this roster.  Defensive end Jason Babin, a 2004 first round pick that spent the past few years bouncing around the league, finally excelled last year in Tennessee and earned a trip to the Pro Bowl.  Bookending Babin is last year’s first round pick Derrick Morgan, who looks to be a very promising player.  Jason Jones is a very good, young defensive tackle that could use some more help in the trenches.  Though their linebackers are unspectacular, it’s a solid group, and there won’t be a 4-3 linebacker worthy of the eighth overall selection.  Cortland Finnegan is a really good corner, and Alterraun Verner looked great as a rookie last year.  Chris Hope and Michael Griffin form a very good safety duo.  So, the Titans’ biggest needs are quarterback, another receiver, defensive tackle, linebacker help, and maybe another corner for depth purposes.

Who They Might Pick: I think If Newton is still on the board, he’s the most likely pick.  You just can’t pass on such a talented player if he’s still on the board.  Yes, I have tons of questions about him, but it’s a big need for the Titans, and he has unlimited potential.  If Newton is gone they could look to target Oregon State nose tackle Stephen Paea to solidify the run defense.  Dareus and Fairley would be no-brainer selections, but I think both guys will be gone.  The Titans don’t run a 3-4, so the edge rush linebackers are out of the equation and their defensive ends are tremendous, so Da’Quan Bowers is out as well.  Amukamara could be the pick here, though I don’t think he represents a big need.  The Titans’ choice should come down to Newton or Paea, and if both are still on the board, Newton will be the guy.

My Advice: It scares the hell out of me, but draft Cam Newton.  If you pass him up and he turns into a star, it’ll bury your franchise.  Newton is a smarter guy than Young, he’s more polished, and he handled a ton of adversity last year at Auburn.  Newton was probably the most famous athlete in America for about five months, endured a huge scandal, and still won every game he played in.  There’s something to be said for that.  Plus, he may be the most athletic quarterback since Michael Vick burst onto the scene in 2001.  Comparisons to Tim Tebow are utterly ridiculous.

With the 8th pick, the Tennessee Titans select Cam Newton, QB, Auburn.

--from Adam

(images from zimbio.com)

Bracket Busted: Repicking the Sweet 16

(2) San Diego State Aztecs vs. (3) Connecticut Huskies

Tip-Off: Thursday, 7:15 Eastern

Network: CBS

Theme: Scrappy Aztecs Try to Stop the Kemba Walker Show

Even though San Diego State is 34-2, I think they’re overrated.  In watching them over the first two games they appeared to be a solid but unspectacular team.  Needing two overtimes to dispatch a so-so Temple squad should be worrisome for the Aztecs.  Conversely, UConn has looked like one of the stronger teams in the tournament.  The Huskies easily overwhelmed a Bucknell team many experts believed could pull off an upset or two.  Connecticut then beat Big-East rival Cincinnati with relative ease.

Besides how both teams have performed thus far in the tourney, I think UConn has superior personnel.  Kemba Walker will be the best player on the floor, and the Huskies’ size inside is something most college teams aren’t prepared for.  SDSU will play aggressive pressure basketball and aren’t devoid of length starting three forwards that range from 6’7” to 6’9”.  UConn’s starting power forward is Alex Oriakhi (6’9” 240 pounds) and they play 7-footer Charles Okwandu 15-20 minutes per game.  Connecticut, besides all their size, play a three guard lineup featuring Walker, and freshman guards Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb. Napier is a very good ball handler and passer, while Lamb is a scorer, good athlete, and accurate three point shooter.  Kawhai Leonard is the Aztecs’ best player, but he’s a bit of a tweener.  It’s hard to say if he’s a small forward or power forward, and the Huskies have plenty of players that can guard him.

One thing that gives me slight pause is that this game will take place in Anaheim, securing a home court advantage for SDSU.  Still, the Huskies have a national fan base and won’t be unrepresented on the West Coast.

Ultimately, when two relatively equal teams matchup, the squad with the best overall player should win.  The best overall player in this game will be Walker, and he has plenty of help around him.  UConn will own the boards, and the Kemba will own the day.

Prediction: UConn 73 — SDSU 65

(2) Florida Gators vs. (3) BYU Cougars

Tip-Off: Thursday, 7:27 Eastern

Network: TBS

Theme: Jimmer vs. the World

I said in the UConn-SDSU breakdown that when two equal teams matchup, whoever has the best overall player should win.  Jimmer Fredette is unquestionably the best player in this game, possibly the whole tournament, but are BYU and Florida relatively equal teams?  I don’t think so.  Florida has good but not great players all over their roster, fielding a deep, versatile, big, and talented team.

Florida clearly has more talent, size, and athleticism, so the question is can Fredette negate all those disadvantages?  Simply, no.  Ever since BYU lost their starting center, Brandon Davies, the Cougars have relied even more on Fredette to carry the load.  Jimmer will get his points and make some unbelievable shots, but it won’t be enough.  Billy Donovan is a great coach, and he’ll be able to win a game where he basically has to stop one guy.  Force Fredette to take difficult shots, make him work defensively, and tire him out over the course of the game.

Additionally, Florida will have a big edge in the rebounding battle.  The Gators start Chandler Parsons and Vernon Macklin, both 6’10”, forward Alex Tyus is 6’8”, and reserve Erik Murphy is 6’10”.  The Cougars’ tallest player is 6’9”.  Florida’s guard play is dynamic as well; Erving Walker and Kenny Boyton are excellent scorers that handle the ball and defend.

Jimmer was good enough to beat Gonzaga and Wofford by himself, but the Gators are too competent offensively, too big, and too athletic to overcome.  Unless Fredette scores 50, the Gators win.

Prediction: Florida 68 — BYU 58

(1) Duke Blue Devils vs. (5) Arizona Wildcats

Tip-Off: Thursday, 9:45 Eastern

Network: CBS

Theme: Arizona’s Athletes vs. Duke’s Precision

The Blue Devils are only getting stronger at the right time of year.  Freshman sensation Kyrie Irving is back and should be even better with another week to get into the groove.  Guard Nolan Smith should be heavily considered for the Naismith, and forward Kyle Singler is one of the best all-around players in the country.  The Plumlee Brothers are unspectacular in the post, but they are solid and use their considerable size well.  Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins provide good support, scoring, and depth for the big three of Singler, Smith, and Irving.

Arizona is entirely dependent on the play of the extraordinary sophomore forward Derrick Williams.  He’s very strong and can play either inside or out.  Singler will be able to guard him on the perimeter, but lacks the strength to give Williams problems in the post.  Williams will get his points and give the Blue Devils problems, but he won’t have enough help.  The second leading scorer for the Wildcats averages just 9 points per contest.  Additionally, ‘Zona doesn’t have great size in the post, something that traditionally gives Duke issues.  What Arizona does have is tremendous athleticism across their lineup.  They should be able to deal with Duke’s three guards and will have the horses to stay with Singler.  Defending the three point shot is vital against the Blue Devils, and Arizona has the potential to do that very well.

In the end though, Duke is too smart, too consistent, and too talented for the Wildcats.  I expect Arizona to try to make this an up and down frenetic game.  They may succeed for a half, but they won’t be able to dictate pace the whole way.  Ho-hum, Duke advances to the Elite 8 once more.

Prediction: Duke 71 — Arizona 63

(4) Wisconsin Badgers vs. (8) Butler Bulldogs

Tip-Off: Thursday, 9:57 Eastern

Network: TBS

Theme: Defense, Defense, Defense

After reviewing my original bracket and contemplating this piece, I promised to pick with my head and not my heart like I did the first time around.  This is the game that will most test that assurance.  Of all the Sweet 16 matchups, this one is the most likely to be close throughout.  These teams will be back and forth all night, and I doubt either will build a truly sizeable lead.  Defensively, these are two of the best groups in the country, they hang their hat on that end of the floor, it’s the identity for both.  We will surely witness a low-scoring, grindingly methodical game.

We may also have two of the three best coaches in the country in Butler head man Brad Stevens and Bo Ryan for the Badgers.  Stevens is a numbers guy; he finds a way to milk the clock and maximize every possession.  Bo knows hoops inside and out; he’s great with his players and makes terrific adjustments.

The key to the game is going to be which team can score down the stretch.  In a defensive game that’s close throughout, one team will have to find a way to manufacture some points. Who is more equipped to score in tight situations?  Butler certainly has experience after going to the 2010 Final and returning most of that team this year.  Guard Shelvin Mack is an exceptional player who has turned up his level in the tournament.  Forward Matt Howard is a really smart player that has added three point range to his arsenal of post moves.  Wisconsin counters with two oddly similar players.  Guard Jordan Taylor is a savvy scorer that leads a Badgers offense that is on a historic pace in terms of limiting turnovers.  Forward Jon Leuer, much like Butler’s Howard, can catch the ball on the block or step out to the three line and be effective.

Perhaps my justification for who will win this game comes down to luck.  Butler has been very lucky thus far escaping Old Dominion at the buzzer and beating Pittsburgh in the strangest game of the tournament.  Stevens’ bunch may have used all of their get out of jail free cards and are unlikely to be so lucky against Wisconsin.  Butler has been an inconsistent team on the year that is playing well now, but we’ve seen them have flat performances, and I just don’t see them making the Elite 8 two years in a row.  Wisconsin also has played very well thus far in the tournament, and Taylor had his worst game of the season in their last game against Kansas State.  In other words, he is due for a big time performance.  In a defensive struggle, I believe his play will be the difference.

Prediction: Wisconsin 62 — Butler 59

(2) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (11) Marquette Golden Eagles

Tip-Off: Friday, 7:15 Eastern

Network: CBS

Theme: Pros vs. Joes

Talent vs. grit is the name of this game.  UNC has the future pros and the pedigree, and Marquette has the “us against the world” card to play.  The Golden Eagles also have a tremendous amount of team quickness and athleticism.  They play pressuring, aggressive defense, and often double the post to make up for their lack of size.  But if UNC can find the open man out of that double team and make their outside shots, they should win going away.

There’s no way Marquette can board with the frontline of Tyler Zeller, John Henson, and Harrison Barnes.  UNC is 1^st in the country in rebounds per game.  Marquette is 104^th.  Usually when a team has that big of an advantage in such a significant aspect of the game, you know who should win.  UNC coach Roy Williams is too good at what he does to lose a matchup where he has such an advantage.

I expect Marquette to make this game ugly, fast, wild, and lots of fun.  However, UNC can play up-tempo, and they can win that type of game.  The personnel for North Carolina will be too much for feisty Marquette.

Prediction: North Carolina 76 — Marquette 67

(1) Kansas Jayhawks vs. (12) Richmond Spiders

Tip-Off: Friday, 7:27 Eastern

Network: TBS

Theme: Is Cinderella Ready for the Ball?

David vs. Goliath certainly sums up this matchup on paper, though I don’t think Richmond feels that way.  The Spiders have grown accustomed to pulling upsets and have made some runs over their history.  Kansas typically struggles with mid-majors in the tournament, seeming to play tight.  For some reason though, I think the Jayhawks are ready to have their best performance.

When Kansas plays up-tempo and unencumbered, they are really tough to beat.  Richmond will have to play a perfect game to win, and even that might not be enough.

Richmond forward Justin Harper is a very good player who at 6’10” can rebound, score from all over the court, and should be able to check one of the Morris twins from Kansas.  Spiders guard Kevin Anderson complements Harper as a really talented second scorer.  Any time a team has two players that can really light it up, they have a chance.

Unfortunately for Richmond, Kansas has the best post duo in the nation in Marcus and Markieff Morris.  Both brothers can step away from the hoop, play with their backs to the basket, rebound, pass, and challenge shots.  Tyrell Reed and Brady Morningstar both really shoot the three ball.  Tyshawn Taylor and Josh Selby can also shoot from distance; they bring great speed to the guard positions.  Thomas Robinson is an excellent reserve forward who averages 8 points and 7 rebounds in just 15 minutes of game action.  Kansas can play eleven guys or can shorten their rotation to eight players.  They can play fast, they defend, they shoot the three, and they have talent in the post.  Richmond has two very nice players who likely would be backups on the Jayhawks.  I just can’t see KU losing this game.

Prediction: Kansas 74 — Richmond 59

(1) Ohio State Buckeyes vs. (4) Kentucky Wildcats

Tip-Off: Friday, 9:45 Eastern

Network: CBS

Theme: Talent as Far as the Eye Can See

This is easily the sexiest matchup of the Sweet 16.  There is pro talent all over the floor, and Kentucky just might have more than the top-seeded Buckeyes.  Still, no one is playing as well as Ohio State right now.  Jared Sullinger has been unstoppable on the block, and he provides wide open jumpers for many a Buckeye marksman—Jon Diebler, William Buford, and David Lighty.  Buckeye point guard Aaron Craft has been great all year at setting the table for all the talented scorers on this team.  Craft handles the ball well and is a terrific passer and excellent defender.  Freshman sixth man Deshaun Thomas is a McDonald’s All-American that would start for most any other team.  Buckeye forward Dallas Lauderdale is a monster in terms of challenging shots and using his body to wear down opposing bigs.

Kentucky won’t be intimidated by the size or talent of Ohio State because they can match the Buckeyes player for player.  Wildcat center Josh Harrellson is the rare player that can equal Sullinger’s size in the post at 6’10” and 275 pounds.  He’s very strong, can score when needed, and plays with excellent body position, a true test for Sullinger.  Harrellson doesn’t need to outscore #0; he just needs to make his life difficult.  Kentucky forward Terrence Jones can do everything.  He’ll shoot, handle, pass, slash, or post up, a tough matchup for the plodding big men of Ohio State.  Freshman point guard Brandon Knight is a true star, capable of hanging 30 points if he needs to.  Craft will have his hands full checking Knight all day.  Knight is flanked by sweet shooting freshman Doron Lamb, who makes threes at a nearly 50% clip. Deandre Liggins and Darius Miller provide Kentucky with slashing wing players who can also knock down the outside shot.

Kentucky is the more athletic team, but not by much.  Ohio State is stronger inside but just by a nose.  With the post and point guard matchups equaling out, I think the wing players will account for the difference in this game.  Diebler, Lighty, and Bufford are just too good right now.  They will outperform Liggins and Miller.

Prediction: Ohio State 69 — Kentucky 63

(10) Florida State Seminoles vs. (11) Virginia Commonwealth Rams

Tip-Off: Friday, 9:57 Eastern

Network: TBS

Theme: One of these teams is going to be in the Elite 8?

The best thing about this matchup is that a double digit seed is assured of making the quarterfinals.  That means we will get one of those Cinderella vs. Perennial Powerhouse matchups in the next round, and we all love that.

This game is relatively simple to break down.  These are two of the best defensive teams in the country that both struggle to score on offense.  Thus, it should come down to rebounding and turnovers.  The team that limits its mistakes and gets the most second chances on the boards should have the most chances to put the ball in the hoop.  And I think that team will be Florida State.

The Seminoles’ star player, Chris Singleton, has been working his way back from injury and should be ready to play big minutes in this game.  That’s huge because he’s the one guy who FSU can rely on to get tough baskets.

VCU plays a lot of guards; their second tallest player who actually plays significant minutes is just 6’6”.  Their biggest player is star forward Jamie Skeen.  Skeen is going to have to play possessed to compete with FSU’s size and athleticism in the paint.

This is going to be a really low scoring game, but FSU has the best defense in the nation and are one of the more rugged teams I’ve seen this year.  I give the Seminoles the nod.

Prediction: Florida State 56 — VCU 49

--from Adam